Wto Global And Inflation In China 2000

WTO, GLOBALIZATION AND INFLATION IN CHINA 2000

Ma Hanxi 0209438

Philipp Ehn 0351135

Inhalt

1.What is WTO

2. WTO & CHINA

3. Inflation in China before WTO

4. Inflation in China after WTO

1.What is WTO

• What has happened at the end 90er and beginning 21 century.

• -1997 the south east Asia economic crisis• -2001 China return to WTO• -2001 the successful bid for Olympia

1.What is WTO

• Born in 1995, but not so young : the WTO began life on 1 January 1995, but its trading system is half a century older. Since 1948, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) had provided the rules for the system.

1.What is WTO

• GATT: ‘provisional’ for almost half a century. From 1948 to 1994, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) provided the rules for much of world trade and presided over periods that saw some of the highest growth rates in international commerce.

1.What is WTO

• GATT: The original intention was to create a third institution to handle the trade side of international economic cooperation, joining the two “Bretton Woods” institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

1.What is WTO

The reason to create WTO:

- world trade had become far more complex and important

than 40 years before

- the globalization of the world economy

- trade in services — not covered by GATT rules — was of

major interest to more and more countries,

- and international investment had expanded.

1.What is WTO

Principles of the trading system:

1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally

2. National treatment: Treating foreigners and locals equally

3. Freer trade: gradually, through negotiation 4. Promoting fair competition 5. Encouraging development and economic reform

2. WTO & CHINA

• On December 11th 2001 China became a member of the WTO.

• China's entry to the WTO is a major event for the country, and the world as a whole.

• China's entry will benefit its national economy, as well as encourage global economic growth and the improvement of the multilateral trade system.

2. WTO & CHINA

• China's WTO entry promoted global economic development:

• On one hand, China's further opening market and improving investment environment offered a great deal of business opportunities for world businessmen.

• On the other hand, China's rapid economic growth, increasing income level, and expanding market brought more trade opportunities and explore new investment and development space.

2. WTO & CHINA

• Over the past 15 years, China's exports have jumped more than tenfold, far exceeding the tripling of world trade that has taken place over the same period.

• In 2004, China overtook Japan as the world's third largest exporter, just behind Germany and the United States.

2. WTO & CHINA

• Conditions for China to enter WTO:• (1) the lowering of tariffs for imports (eg.on agricultural

products from 31.5 percent to 14.5 percent overall by January 2004)

• (2) the permission of foreign firms to sell directly in the Chinese domestic markets Foreign manufacturers, (automobile company would be able to sell their products directly to domestic consumers without having to go through Chinese trade organizations)

2. WTO & CHINA

• (3) the opening of the telecommunication and finance sectors to more foreign competition. (Foreign banks can offer services in local currencies to Chinese corporations)

• (4) Foreign firms can also provide accounting, management consulting, architecture and engineering services.

2. WTO & China

• Advantages & disadvantages for China

• Chances & risks due to the WTO accession

• Short-term & long-term effects

• Competition

• Implementation

WTO & China

• Agricultural sector

• Unemployment

• State owned enterprises (SOEs)

• Comparison with other countries

WTO & China

Service sector

• Distribution

• Financial services

• telecommunications

WTO & China

Recommendations:

• State council leadership

• Open China to Chinese

• Implement early

• Cooperation among WTO members

2. WTO & CHINA

• China’s entry to the WTO is a double-edged sword which brings to the country not only various benefits but also drastic impacts.

One especially risk is INFLATION TRANSPARENCE

3. Deflation in China before WTO

• 20 世纪 90 年代前期 , 为了控制严重的通货膨胀 , 我国实施了以紧缩为基本特征的财政政策 . ( Beginning of 90s unexpansionary financial policy)

• 从 1997 年开始 , 中国物价水平持续下降 , 经济增长速度放慢 , 经济学家和政府官员普遍认为中国出现了通货紧缩 . (since 1997 growth has also decreased. Prices have actually declined over much of the last three years.)


1998 年是中国经济的一个转折点，中国经济出现了通货紧缩局面 .(Deflation 1998-2000)

M0 为基础货币， M1 为 M0+ 活期存款， M2 为 M1+ 储蓄存款图 1 1995-2002 中国 GDP,M2 增长率和居民消费价格总水平增长率

- 5. 00%

0. 00%

5. 00%

10. 00%

15. 00%

20. 00%

25. 00%

30. 00%

1995 1997 1999 2001

GDP增长率

M2增长率

居民消费价格总水平增长率


• 表 1 1995-2002 中国 GDP,M2 增长率和居民消费价格总水平增长率资料来源：《中国统计年鉴》 1995——2002

• “ 一个下降，两个伴随” 现象被广泛认定为通货紧缩。

年份 GDP增长率 M2增长率居民消费价格总水平增长率

1995 10.20% 29.50% 17.10%

1996 9.70% 25.30% 8.30%

1997 8.80% 17.30% 2.80%

1998 7.80% 15.30% -2.60%

1999 7.10% 14.70% -3%

2000 8.00% 12.30% 0.40%

2001 7.30% 14.40% 0.70%

2002 8% 16.80% -0.80%


• 中国人民银行作为中央银行采取了诸多增加货币供给的政策手段 , 采取积极的扩张性财政政策。 (Though the People's Bank of China adopt a great deal of policies in order to increase money supply and other expansionary fiscal policy.)

• - 下调法定存款准备金率• - 降息 (decrease interest rate)• - 政府主导下的基础设施投资增加 (increase Investment)


• The following table shows the rate of China annual consumer price index in recent years.


• 截至 2007 年 7 月，中国居民消费价格指数（ CPI ）已经连续 5 个月超过 3% ， 7 月份更高达 5.6% ，首次突破被认为是“ 严重通胀” 标志的 5% 大关，为 1997 年 2 月以来的 10 年新高 .

• 就根源而言，中国当前的通货膨胀压力具有鲜明的外部输入特征 (character of import) ，这种外部输入特征首先体现为进口初级产品价格的上涨 (the price of import material increased) 。


• 外部输入特征 1 :• 初级产品在进口总额中所占比重从 1994 年的 14.23% 提

高到 2006 年的 23.64% ，我国已经是铜矿、锰矿砂等多种资源产品的最大进口国，是仅次于美国、日本的世界第三大石油输入国。 (China is the third largest material import country after USA and Japan)

• 在这种情况下，当主要原料、能源输出国和西方投机基金们在市场上翻云覆雨，推动主要原料、能源屡创新高之时中国无论如何也无法幸免 (China‘s economy is very strong impacted by the increase of international markt price ) 。


• 外部输入特征 2 :• 食品类价格堪称今年中国通货膨胀的“ 罪魁祸首” 。 (the

food price is the most important reason for the inflation in the last couple of years)

• 但令人惊异的是，这个涨幅是在中国连续 4 年粮食丰收的同时出现的。 2004-2006 年，我国粮食产量依次为9389亿斤、 9680亿斤和 9800亿斤，逐年增长 .(But 2004-2006 there was a good harvest in China)

• 之所以出现粮食产量与价格同步上涨这种似乎背离价格规律的现象，原因在于国际市场。


• 国际粮食市场原因 1 : 去年世界粮食减产 1.6% ，其中谷物减产 2.1% ，小麦减

产 5.2% ，粗粮减产 1.1%；粮食需求则增长 1% ，导致芝加哥期货市场小麦、玉米等期货价格大幅度上涨，也吸引中国粮食出口上升，以至于今年出现了粮食净出口的现象。 2007 年 1-6 月，中国谷物及谷物粉出口 565万吨，比去年同期（ 346万吨）增长 63.3% , 进口谷物及谷物粉只有 94万吨，比去年同期（ 201万吨）减少 53.3%. (The world corn supply decreased, but in China export > import)

• 国际粮食市场原因 2 : 制造生物燃料 (made for „Bio Diesel“)


• 在更广阔的时空背景上考察，我们可以看到，无论是中国国内还是国际上，通货膨胀压力加大很大程度上不过是流动性过剩的表现而已。

• 而世界性流动性过剩，又源于此前几年西方国家宽松的货币政策：特别是日本银行的零利率以及 2001 年 1 月到2003 年 6 月美联储连续 13 次降息 (the most western countries carried out expansionary monetary policy with very low interest rate after 2001,so on world‘s Currency supply > demand) 。


• “ 中国输出通胀论” (China export inflation theory)

• 我国当前的通货膨胀具有明显的外部输入特征，这种外部输入的通货膨胀又反过来推动了中国出口商品价格的上。 2007 年 1-6 月，中国主要出口制成品平均单价普遍上涨：棉纱线上涨 3.6% ，电视机上涨 90.5% ，自动数据处理设备及其部件上涨 34.7% ，摩托车上涨 10.6% ，自行车上涨 7.8 ，汽车及其底盘上涨 31.6% ，…… (in China generally product‘s exported price increase,which has also strong impact on the world market‘s price inflation)

• 中国出口商品价格上涨必然要加大主要进口国的通货膨胀压力。在这种情况下，“ 中国输出通胀论”正在兴起。


• 通货膨胀的治理是一个复杂的工程，需要多管齐下 .(农业政策 , 紧缩的货币政策 , 收入政策… ) 。

• 国际协作 (international cooperation):

从流动性过剩这个源头上根治通货膨胀 : 我们需要国际协作；但也正由于需要国际协作，所以我们还不能指望这次通货膨胀很快结束。 (In order to control inflation, we need more cooperation with other countries and international financial instituts, it‘s not only China‘s duty)


国际协作 :

1 ）实行浮动汇率。由于在浮动汇率制度下，我国货币对外汇汇率的升降完全由市场供求关系所决定。 (it‘s important to use floating exchange rate according to the demand and supply development on the foreign currency market)

（ 2 ）与各国在贸易和金融领域采取协调措施，如与各国加强协作，共同采取控制各国货币供应量的增长率、改善国际金融制度以及其它反通货膨胀的措施，以制止世界性通货膨胀的蔓延，等等。

THANK YOU!!!

Wto Global And Inflation In China 2000

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