WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 1, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• An in depth look at Wisconsin ahead of Tuesday’s primary, including union rolls, Walker vs.

Barrett, and how Romney and Obama are faring in the state.

Weekly Summary

The Wisconsin primary takes a national focus this week, with Scott Walker and

Tom Barrett facing off in a recall rematch of their 2010 race. Walker has the

momentum currently, though that doesn’t mean the state will fall easily to

Romney.

On the economic front, Obama’s rebound on economic job approval has stalled

along with hopes of a recovery. The May unemployment report was

disappointing, rising a point to 8.2% as job growth stalled and growth estimates

for previous months were downgraded.

The Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot has stretched to two

months now.

Six in ten Americans are unhappy about the direction of the country.

Source: Real Clear Politics

36%

29% 29%

20% 18%

30% 34% 34%

57% 63% 63%

75%

64% 60% 59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12

Direction of the County

Approve Disapprove

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 32% 33%

Wrong Track 61% 58%

Obama’s jobs approval remains split and just below 50%.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 49% 48%

Disapprove 48% 47%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49% 49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$50,201

$138,946

$15,743,180,165,125

The national debt per taxpayer increased by $416 this week.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

Republican’s have been leading the generic ballot for two months now.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

Obama’s economic approval has steadied out as hopes of a recovery have slowly stalled.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

41%

Unemployment rose as job growth stalled in May with only 69,000 new jobs added, less than half of what analysts were expecting. Previous months growth numbers were also revised downward.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

May, 2012 8.2%

Romney is closing the gap with Obama, who remains under 50%.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 46%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Pollster.com shows the race as very tight, with Walked unable to get above 50% and Barrett gaining some ground.

Source: Pollster.com

49% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

45% 44% 45% 45% 47% 48% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wisconsin Gubernatorial

Barrett Walker

The Marquette poll shows Walker with a slightly larger lead, doing well among Independents.

52%

88%

53%

16%

3%

3%

10%

4%

45%

9%

37%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Republican Independent Democrat

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Election

Barrett

Undecided/Other

Walker

Source: Marquette Poll

Wisconsin voters think Walker would be better than Barrett at addressing all major issues confronting the state except education.

37%

43%

49%

32%

49%

55%

50%

45%

58%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Balancing the budget

Creating jobs

Improving education

Holding down taxes

Making taxes fair

Who would be better at…

Barrett WalkerSource: Marquette Poll

Wisconsin membership in the public employees union has dropped by 54% since Governor Walker’s reforms.

Source: Wall St. Journal

62,818

28,745

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

March, 2011 February, 2012

AFSCME Winconsin Membership

Even if Walker wins, the state is not necessarily a Romney win. Romney’s image is currently comparable to Barrett’s, while Obama is the most popular of the four politicians in the state.

55%

40%

51% 41%

2%

10%

2%

9%

2%

3% 1% 3%

41% 47% 46% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Barack Obama Mitt Romney Scott Walker Tom Barrett

Wisconsin Images

Unfavorable

DK/Refused

Haven't heard enough

Favorable


Obama currently leads Romney overall and among Independents.

40%

89%

39%

4%

8%

2%

13%

2%

52%

9%

48%

94%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Republican Independent Democrat

Wisconsin Presidential Election

Obama

Undecided/Other

Romney


For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:

Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Perkins Partner

202.494.3084

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Wilson Partner and CEO

405.286.6500

E-mail:

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Ryan Steusloff Vice President

202.470.6300

[email protected]

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601

News & Politics

Transcript of WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120601