World Stock Indices 10Dec14

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the technical advisory service

walter j. zimmermann jr. [email protected]

Equity Index World Tour

10 Dec 2014

10 Dec 2014


Many countries in deep trouble

Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.

United-ICAP

The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject to change without notice. Principalsand employees of United-ICAP may or may not trade in the commodities discussed in this document, taking positions similar or opposite to the positionsdiscussed herein. The information contained in this document is taken from sources we believe to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by us as to theaccuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Any traderecommendations contained in this document are generated by Walter Zimmerman who is a registered futures broker with United-ICAP (ICAP CorporatesLLC) and are intended to be a solicitation to enter into the recommended trades through United-ICAP (ICAP Corporates LLC) as futures broker.

Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion Map

A projection of a world map onto the surface of an icosahedron, which is then unfolded

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10 Dec 2014

Sixteen Indices

OEX - S&P 100 Index ( USA ) - Marginally higher highs still on tap.

Nasdaq Composite ( USA ) - Huge, ominous bearish rising wedge

Bolsa IPC ( Mexico ) - Would evacuate on a decisive close below 39,635.00

Bovespa ( Brazil ) - The election euphoria peak created the expected bull trap. The trend is still down.

FTSE 100 ( UK ) - No change in outlook. Would evacuate on a decisive close below the rising wedge support line.

MICEX ( Russia ) - Just peaked into ideal resistance. The trend is now down.

DAX Index ( Germany ) - The bullish case is derailed by a deciisve monthly close below 8726.00

CAC ( France ) - The huge, bearish rising wedge up from the 2009 low means there will be no happy ending for the French

MIB 40 ( Italy ) - Bulls have no cushion. It is rally or disaster time.

PSI 20 ( Portugal ) - Speaking of ‘rally or else time’ the next stop on our world tour is the disaster of Portugal.

Athex 20 ( Greece ) - Here is a market that looks much worse than Portugal. Still headed for disaster. Abandon ship.

NSE Nifty ( India ) - The Nifty appears to be on a distant universe far, far away from Southern Europe. Bears need a deep drop.

Hang Seng ( Hong Kong ) - Fast approaching the key support line up from the October 2011 lows.

Shanghai Composite ( China ) - The risk here is that this month’s peak completed a bear market correction up from October 2008.

All Ordinaries ( Australia ) - The Aussie index is poised for a major break down. It is rally or else time for the bulls.

Nikkei ( Japan ) - Nikkei bulls are having a rough month. But bulls have a nice cushion.

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Summary

There are as many national indices with severe

downside risk as there are bullish and neutral

indices combined. This is a world of extremes.

And extremes breed instability.

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10 Dec 2014

OEX ( S&P 100 Index ) - daily

Where is key support ?

• OEX bears have no case whatsoever without a decisive

break below 896.00 without first bettering 921.80

• Without at least a break below 896.00 from here a test

of the 964.00 to 972.00 range is still in the cards.

• From the recent 921.80 high I need a decisive break

below 837.00 to get a major sell signal.

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10 Dec 2014

Nasdaq Composite - monthly

Big Bearish Rising Wedge

The all important rising wedge support line cuts this

month at 3689.00 and at 3724.00 for calendar January.

Suggest evacuate this index on a decisive monthly close

below this rising wedge support line.

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10 Dec 2014

Nasdaq Composite - monthly

Elliott Wave Resistance

• Peg pivotal Elliott wave resistance for the -C- leg up

to to the 5014.64 area.

• This aligns nicely with the just cited 1.618 -A- = -C-

at the 4924.00 area.

Summary

• Peg 4924.00 - 5015.00 long term resistance

• A decisive break below 3724.00 by late January opens

the door for a retest of the 2002 lows.

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10 Dec 2014

Intermediate Term Key Pivots

• Still peg 49,245.00 long term resistance

• Get an intermediate term sell signal on a

decisive break below 39,635.00 from here

Mexican Bolsa IPC Index - monthly

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10 Dec 2014

Mexican Bolsa IPC Index - monthly

Long Term Downside Risk

• Get a long term sell signal on a decisive

break below 35.587.00 from here

• Such a break down would target 17,837.00

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10 Dec 2014

Brazil’s Bovespa - monthly

Down Trend Channel Still Intact

From August 2014 I has pegged the pop up in the Bovespa as an unsustainable

election euphoria peak. Presidential elections are always the scourge of bulls dur-

ing a bear market. The false hopes that they engender merely create bear market

corrections - bull traps. The run up into September 2014 was no exception.

An acceleration lower through the down trend channel support line in green would

target a retest of the 2008 lows.

Commodity Bubble Bursts Election Euphoria Peak

Election Euphoria Peak

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10 Dec 2014

UK - FTSE 100 - monthly

Key Pivots

• No change in outlook.

• Bulls still need a decisive close

above the 6937.00 level.

• A break below the rising wedge

support line targets a retest of

the 2003 lows.

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10 Dec 2014

Russia - MICEX - monthly

Trend Is Down

• Peaked into the pivotal

1627.50 resistance

• Minimum target zone is the

1915.00 to 1000.00 range.

• Next step down would be to

the 695.00 to 625.00 area.

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10 Dec 2014

Germany - DAX - monthly

Where is Key Support Now

Bears need a deciisve break down below

8727.00 from here to derail the case for a

continuing up trend and much higher prices.

Held Key Support

In Elliott wave terms bears needed

the decline from the 10500.98 high

to break decisively below the 8108.00

level. Instead the Dax ricocheted

higher from an 8354.97 low.

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10 Dec 2014

France - CAC 40 - monthly

Big Bearish Rising Wedge

• Bulls have zero case without a

decisive break out above the

red wedge resistance line.

• A decisive monthly close below

the green wedge support line

targets the 1725.00 area.

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10 Dec 2014

Italy - MIB 40 - monthly

Flirting with Disaster

• No change in outlook.

• Bulls still need a decisive break out above

the 22745.00 level.

• A decisive monthly close below the green

support line targets 6280.00 minimum with

2795.00 the next step down from there.

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10 Dec 2014

Portugal - PSI 20 - monthly

Rally or Else Time

A decisive monthly close below 4877.00 opens

room down to the 2490.00 area.

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10 Dec 2014

Trend still down

No change in outlook. The message of the price

action is decisive and irrefutable. The failure

to clear the pivotal 500.00 hurdle targets an-

other major leg down. The I = V in percent

loss targets the 110.00 area. That would mark

a 75% loss from the 445.52 high.

Greece - Athex 20 - monthly

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10 Dec 2014

Bullish Case

• This retreat from the 8626.95 high meets solid

support by the 1990.00 area.

• One more leg up to a 9200.00 area peak ensues

• To derail the bullish case a decisive break be-

low 7598.00 from here is required.

See next page for the bearish case.

India - NSE Nifty - monthly

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10 Dec 2014

Bearish Case

• The bearish case for a completed ABC up from

the 2252.75 low requires a decisive break below

the 7120.00 level.

• On a decisive break below 7120.00 the minimum

downside becomes the 4690.00 area.

India - NSE Nifty - monthly

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10 Dec 2014

Hong Kong - Hang Seng - monthlyPeaked into Most Bearish Case Resistance

The bottom falls out for the Hang Seng on a decisive monthly

close below the rising wedge support line in green. By the

end of January that line cuts at 22520.00

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10 Dec 2014

China - Shanghai Composite - monthly

Peaked into Most Bearish Case Resistance

The rally up from the 1935.59 low of June 2013 did not do

the bulls any favors. This rally carried just high enough to

fit the case for a completed bear market correction up

from the 1749.02 low of October 2008. That would be as an

<ABC> with .618 <A> = <C>.

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10 Dec 2014

Australia - All Ordinaries - monthly Peaked into Key Long Term Resistance

• Reversed sharply lower from pivotal resistance.

• About to break the first rising wedge support line.

Steps Lower

• First rising wedge support line = 5199.0

• Next wedge support line = 4760.0

• Nest step down from there = 3342.0

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10 Dec 2014

Inflating the Nikkei

The continuing collapse of the Yen, engineered

by the BOJ, has been having the desired effect.

The value of the Nikkei is inflating. And as in-

tended this inflation is diverting attention from

the rapidly shrinking and ageing population, and

the rapidly exploding national debt.

Japan - Nikkei - monthly

Key Pivots

• Peg 19690.00 key resistance.

• From the recent highs bears

need a decisive break below

15426.00 to have any case.

World Stock Indices 10Dec14

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