World Raw Material Consumption Trends
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Transcript of World Raw Material Consumption Trends
Materials and the Environmentt
Part 2 – World Raw Material Consumption Trends and
Environmental Implications of Increasing Consumption
(Most recent update April 1, 2013)
World Raw Material Consumption TrendsWorld Raw Material Consumption Trends
Molybdenum mining in Colorado
• World and U.S. populations are growing.
• World economic growth is much more rapid than the rate of population growth– as a result, per capita consumption of goods of all kinds is rising globally.
World Raw Material Consumption Trends
World Demand for Selected Raw World Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012
Materials Used in Greatest QuanityMaterials Used in Greatest Quanity(Million Metric Tons)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Raw SteelInd. WoodFuel WoodCement
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data for wood from UN, FAOStat Forestry (2013).
World Demand for Selected Raw World Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012
Important Metals(Million Metric Tons)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
TinNickelLeadZincCopperAluminum
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013).
World Growth in Consumption World Growth in Consumption of Principal Raw Materials, of Principal Raw Materials,
1961-20121961-2012(Population growth during this period: 2.28x)
Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics Wood
4.26x 11.10x 9.45x 48.33x 1.60x
Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in
Europe (2013).
U.S. Demand for Selected Raw U.S. Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012
Materials Used in Greatest Quantity(Million Metric Tons)
050
100150200250300350400450500
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
TinNickelLeadZincCopperAluminumRaw SteelWoodCement
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data for 2010-2011 wood consumption from UN, FAOStat
Forestry (2013); 2012 est.
Great recession
If a full array of raw materials, including industrial minerals
(limestone, clay, sand, gravel), are added to a graphic of materials
consumption growth, the picture is even more dramatic.
U.S. Raw Nonfuel Minerals Put into Use Annually from 1900 through
2010 (materials embedded in imported goods not included)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).
U.S. Raw Raw Materials Put into Use Annually from 1900 through 2010 (materials embedded in imported goods not
included)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).
In the next slide, raw material consumption growth is shown for two time periods for the United
States: 1961-2005 and 1961-2012.
Note the dramatically different numbers – pre-great recession and with the recent recession included
within the time frame. Consumption patterns are likely to soon return to the
1961-2005 pattern.
U.S. Growth in Basic Raw U.S. Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, Materials Consumption, 1961-2005 and 1961-2012 1961-2005 and 1961-2012
Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics
Wood
Population growth 1961-2005 – 1.61x
‘61-’05 1.68x 2.26x 3.48x 49.90x 2.37x
Population growth 1961-2012 – 1.71x
‘61-’12 1.51x 1.39x 2.63x 42.40x 1.57x
Source: Data for wood from USFS and estimates (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from
the National Commission on Materials Policy (1975) and the American Plastics Council (2013).
Principal raw materials globally and in the United States are
cement, wood, and steel.
Annual World Consumption of Various Raw Materials,
2011 Billion
Metric tons Billion m3
Cement 3.600 1.1Roundwood 1.739 3.5Industrial roundwood* 0.794 1.6Steel 1.520 0.19Plastics 0.280 0.31Aluminum 0.044 0.01
* The difference between roundwood and industrial roundwood is wood used for fuel. Roundwood includes both fuelwood and wood used in construction, and for making paper, furniture, and other wood products.
Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, aluminum, and steel from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in
Europe (2013).
Annual U.S. Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2011
Million Metric tons
Million m3
Roundwood* 145 341Forest products (wood only) 128 300Cement 72 23Steel 90 12Plastics 47.5 53Aluminum 3.6 1.3
Source: Data for wood from UNECE (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics
from the American Plastics Council (2012).
* Roundwood is the volume of all wood harvested.
More wood is consumed every year in the United States than all metals and all plastics combined.
In view of this high and continuing rate of consumption, does this mean that the world is
likely to soon run out of essential raw materials?
The good news is that the world is unlikely to physically run out of
most types of raw materials anytime soon.
However, there are a number of factors that may combine at
some point to limit availability of critical resources.
These include rising competition among nations and regions for resources,
social issues, and environmental concerns.
Consider Mineral Consider Mineral ResourcesResources
Mineral resources have become more and more widely available despite (and partly because of) growing rates of consumption.
Lower Grades of Ore
Lowest Grades of Ore
Highest Grades of Ore (generally exploited
first)
Ore quality is declining as consumption of metals rises.
High quality ore contains a high percentage of metallic element in
a given amount of ore.
Low quality ore contains a low percentage of metallic element in
a given amount of ore.
Note: products that originate from low grade ore are not inferior in quality to products that originate from high grade ore.
There is a strong tendency for mineral resources to increase in quantity as the quality that can be economically exploited goes
down.
Lower Grades of Ore
Lowest Grades of Ore
Highest Grades of Ore (generally exploited
first)
There is a strong tendency for mineral resources to increase in quantity as the quality that can be economically
exploited goes down.
Decreasing ore quality
Increasing ore availability
Reserves of metals are typically expressed in years . .
. or specifically as
World Reserves Indices
To calculate the World Reserves Index, known reserves of a mineral
that can be• extracted economically • at today’s prices • using today’s technology
are divided by current annual consumption of that mineral.
World Reserves of Selected World Reserves of Selected Metals Metals (expressed in years of supply)
Metal Reserves (years)
Iron Ore 178
Aluminum 219
Zinc 19
Manganese 43
Lead 20
Copper 35
Nickel 51
Uranium 65
Titanium 79
Source: Richards, J. 2009. Mining, Society, and a Sustainable World.
These numbers are sometimes interpreted as indicating that the world is about to run out
of minerals.
However, World Reserve Index values tend to remain constant
or even rise over time.
Nothing said here should be interpreted that all metals are
infinitely available.
Also, while long-term Also, while long-term availability of most metals is availability of most metals is
not an issue, the not an issue, the environmental environmental impacts impacts of procuring and of procuring and
processing ore, and especially processing ore, and especially increasingly lower grades of increasingly lower grades of
ore, present significant ore, present significant challenges. challenges.
Also, while long-term Also, while long-term availability of most metals is availability of most metals is
not an issue, the not an issue, the environmental environmental impacts impacts of procuring and of procuring and
processing ore, and especially processing ore, and especially increasingly lower grades of increasingly lower grades of
ore, present significant ore, present significant challenges. challenges.
Environmental concerns related to mining and metals production center on long-term impacts to nearby populations, landscapes, water supplies, and air quality and large impacts of conversion of ore to base metals and useful products.
Environmental concerns related to mining and metals production center on long-term impacts to nearby populations, landscapes, water supplies, and air quality and large impacts of conversion of ore to base metals and useful products.
Consider Wood Resources
Consider Wood Resources
Wood is a renewable resourceWood is a renewable resource. . It is infinitely renewable as long It is infinitely renewable as long as the forests from which it is as the forests from which it is
obtained are managed obtained are managed sustainablysustainably.
There are about 4 billion There are about 4 billion hectares (10 billion acres) of hectares (10 billion acres) of
forests in the worldforests in the world.
Source: United Nations, FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2010.
While forest area is declining in some parts of the world, it is stable or increasing in others.Decreasin
gStable or increasing
Similar trends can be seen in forest carbon stocks.
Planted forests now make up about 7% of the total forest area globally – 264 million hectares (652 million acres).These supply about one-quarter of the annual harvest of wood used for forest products.
Estimated Deforestation by Type of Forest and Time Period
Source: United Nations, FAO, State of the World’s Forests – 2012.
Deforestation is ongoing, but at a declining rate worldwide. Losses are wholly withintropical regions and largely attributable toconversion to agriculture – although other factors, including indiscriminate logging, play a role.
In the United States, the In the United States, the World’s Largest Producer World’s Largest Producer and Consumer of Wood and Consumer of Wood
Products:Products:• Forest cover is within 1% of what it
was in the early 1900s (33% of the land area).
• Net growth greatly exceeds removals.
• Forest inventory is increasing.
• Forest carbon stocks are increasing.
• Ongoing technology improvements have greatly increased the efficiency of wood use – now 99%+ of each log harvested.
Trends in U.S. Forestland Area 1630-2009
1045
759 732 760 756 762 755 744 739 737 747 751
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1630 1907 1920 1938 1953 1963 1970 1977 1987 1992 1997 2009
Million
Acre
s
Source: USDA – Forest Service, 2009.
U.S. Timber Growth and Removals, 1920 - 2006
Billions of cubic feet/ year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1920 1933 1952 1976 1986 1996 2006
Net GrowthRemovals
Source: USDA - Forest Service
Figures above only include growth on forest land where periodic harvesting is allowed. Growth in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas is
not included.
Standing Timber Inventory – U.S. 1952-2007
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
1952 1962 1970 1976 1986 1991 1997 2002 2007
Hardwoods Softwoods
Billion
Cu
bic
Feet
Source: USDA-Forest Service, 2007.
Inventory only includes forest land where periodic harvesting is allowed. Timber volumes in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas are not included.
Forest Soil Carbon Inventory, Forest Soil Carbon Inventory, U.S. 1990-2010U.S. 1990-2010
05
1015202530354045
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Soil Organic C Litter
Dead Wood Belowground Biomass
Aboveground Biomass
Billion
Ton
s C
arb
on
Source: USEPA (2012). Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2011, p. 7-15.
A History of Wood Utilization Efficiency in the U.S.
Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.
Perc
en
t of
Log
Volu
me
En
teri
ng
Saw
mill
1930 1970 1985 2005
1009080706050403020100
Lumber
Other Products
Energy Production
Uses of Material Processed at U.S. Milling Sites - 2005
Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.
• 52% processed into lumber.• 36% converted to paper, particleboard,
fiberboard, insulation board.• 11-12% used to generate energy.• ≤1% waste.
Consider the following illustration of the
renewable nature of forests – and of the wood
that they produce.
Consider the following illustration of the
renewable nature of forests – and of the wood
that they produce.
U.S. Population, Wood Harvest, and Net Forest Growing Stock
Volume, 1952 and 2007
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
U.S. Population Annual WoodHarvest
Net GrowingStock Volume
19522007
Mill
ion
m
3
Bill
ion
ft3
Mill
ion
s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; U.S. Forest Service, 2004.
Annual wood harvest expressed in m3 and growing stock in ft3 to fit to axes.
Between 1952 and 2007, timber harvests increased by 3.8 billion cubic feet annually. So what happened to the volume of growing in U.S. forests?
Growing stock
volume increased by over 50%!
Environmental concerns linked to forest harvesting
center around fears of deforestation and
effects on forest values other than wood.
Environmental concerns linked to forest harvesting
center around fears of deforestation and
effects on forest values other than wood.
Summary
Summary•Consumption of both renewable and non-
renewable raw materials is increasing.
•Ongoing improvements in technology and informed management has allowed resource availability to keep pace with increasing consumption.
•The world will not “run out” of raw materials anytime soon, though there are concerns about future availability of some key minerals.
Summary•With sustainable management
(such as practiced in the United States), forests – and the wood that they produce, will never run out.
•Environmental concerns related to rising resource use are increasing.