Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Zagreb population
World Population 1750-2100 Links between population and the environment 1. Total pollution =...
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Transcript of World Population 1750-2100 Links between population and the environment 1. Total pollution =...
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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Billions
Developed
Developing
World Population 1750-2100
Links between population andthe environment
1. Total pollution = (pollution per person 1. Total pollution = (pollution per person x population) x population) - pollution control - pollution control - assimilation - assimilation
2. Total resource use = (rate of resource use - recycling rate) x
population
As population increases...
1. Pollution will increase unless pollution control improves
2. Resources will be depletedunless recycling increases and resource use becomes more efficient
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
English demographer and economist
Graduated from Cambridge in 1788 (age 22)
Friend of Hume and Rousseau
Major work (published anonymously in 1798): An essay on the principal of population as it affects
the future improvement of society
NOT a short essay (600 pages long!)
Malthusian argument
1. Reproductive capacity of humans puts continual
pressure on the “means of subsistence”
2. Human numbers increase by geometric progression.
3. Subsistence resources increase arithmetically.
4. Land, unlike people, cannot breed.
The Malthusian principle
Time
Population,food
Checks on population
1. War
2. Seasons of sickness
3. Epidemics today AIDS
4. Pestilence
5. Plague
And the “ultimate” check:
6. Famine
What Malthus missed
1. Birth control and voluntary limits on population growth
(i.e. population growth less than geometric)
2. Agricultural productivity
(i.e. growth in food production greaterthan arithmetic)
The Malthusian principle, revisited
Time
Food
PopulationFood
Pop
A pattern of steadily increasing population growth, followed by aperiod of slowing population growth(as experienced by industrialized countries).
Generally indicated as an S-shaped curve for population through time.
Demographic transition
Frank Notestein (b. 1945)Three stages of population growth
1. High growth potential
2. Transitional growth
3. Incipient decline
1 2 3
1. High growth potential
Pre-industrialPre-industrial
Birth rate high (25-40/1000)
Death rate high
Life expectancy short
Population growth low but positive
Widespread poverty and misery
2. Transitional growth
Early industrialEarly industrial
Birth rate remains high or rises
Death rate low and falling
Life expectancy rises
Population growth “explosive”
Mortality declines before fertility dueto better health, nutrition, and sanitation
3. Incipient decline
IndustrialIndustrial
Birth rate drops due to desires to limit family size
Death rate low and stable
Life expectancy high
Population grows until birth rate = death rate
Characterized by higher levels of wealth and reduced need for large families for labor or insurance.
Message: Birth rates=death rates, country has completed the demographic transition
Message: Birth rates > death rates, country is still in stage 2 of the demographic transition
Key Points
1. Malthusian view of population growing faster than food supply has not come to pass.
2. Evidence in support of “demographictransition” is strong:
90% of Europe, 25% of Africa)
3. Neo-Malthusian views generally correspond toconcerns over environmental quality andspeed of demographic transition.
Message: Fertility rates respond to increases in per capita income, speeding the demographic transition