California Population Dynamics - CALAFCO Population Dynamics ... RNI=6/1000 or 0.6% . yet…annual...
Transcript of California Population Dynamics - CALAFCO Population Dynamics ... RNI=6/1000 or 0.6% . yet…annual...
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California Population DynamicsDavid Lopez-Carr
UCSB Department of GeographyDirector, UC Global Health Planetary Health Center of Expertise
Source: sciencemediacenter.co.nz
CALAFCO Annual ConferenceSanta Barbara, CA October 27, 2016
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• What is Demography?
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• The statistical study of human populations, especially with reference to size and density, distribution and vital statistics. www.worldbank.org/html/schools/glossary.htm
• The study of the characteristics of populations, such as size, growth, density, distribution, and vital statistics. www.hubbardbrook.org/education/Glossary/Glossary.htm
• the study of population. www.geoexplorer.co.uk/sections/dictionary/d.htm
Demography is:
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What is Population Geography?
Global Population DensitySource: population growth.org
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a subset of Population Studies that focuses on:• Spatial patterns and processes• Geographers tend to study migration more
than fertility and mortality • Geographers wish to know why that
distribution? • What are the environmental impacts?
Population Geography is:
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HOW DOES POPULATION CHANGE?
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Population Change =
Fertility – Mortality +/- Migration
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Putting it all together(accounting for migration)
Population Growth Rate
CBR – CDR +/- Net Migration Rate ------------------------------------------
1,000
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Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = CBR-CDR (No Migration)
CBR>CDR = ↑ population
RNI usually expressed as % e.g., 2% = 2/100 = 20/1000
RNI ≠ population growth if migration significant
Rate of Natural Increase
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RNI U.S. vs. MexicoMexicoCBR (22), CDR (5)RNI = 17/1000 or 1.7%yet…annual population growth rate of %1.3
USCBR (14), CDR (8)RNI=6/1000 or 0.6% yet…annual population growth rate at nearly %1.0 –v. closeto Mexico’s!
Why?+ net migration of 3 migrants/1000vs. Mexico – net migration of 4/1000
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Not just lily pads:What else grows like this?
1. In a matter of seconds…
2. At a decadal scale…
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1 Million Years of Population Growth:Deevey’s Logarithmic Growth Curve
Deevey, E.S. Scientic American, Sept. 1960.
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World Population Growth 1750–2150
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.
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Demographic Transition
Source: K. Montgomery, Department of Geography and Geology, University of Wisconsin. http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
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Actual and Projected Global Population
Source: wikipedia
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Population Momentum
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Life Expectancy at Birth
Life Expectancy (Eo) = Average # years of life for people born in a
given year based on current age-specificdeath rates (e.g. death rates for people at each year of age)
• Poorest LDCs Eo <50 (Southern Africa-35!)• Sweden, Canada Eo = ~80 (US 78)
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Population Pyramid for United States
+/- stable
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GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT BY THE NUMBERSBIG PICTURE DEMOGARPHIC TRENDS IN U.S. AND CALIFORNIA
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United States76,212,168 | Population in 1900California 1.95% of U.S. Population
151,325,798 | Population in 1950California 5.64% of U.S. Population
281,421,906 | Population in 2000California 12.04% of U.S. Population
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United States and California Population Growth
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Population Growth Rates over 30 Year Periods
The growth rate for Californiabetween 2010 and 2015 was 5.05%
The growth rate for the U.S. between 2010 and 2015 was 3.90%
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Mortality, Fertility and ImmigrationUnderlying the Why in Population Growth
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United States Underlying the Why
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California Underlying the Why
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California Underlying the Why
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Household Income, Education and PovertyObserved Economic and Social Impacts Tied to Demographic Changes and Population Growth
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United States Observed Economic and Social Impacts
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California Observed Economic and Social Impacts