World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all© World Energy Council 2011

World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International

Perspective

Dr Rob Whitney –

Chief Executive, CRL Energy Ltd

Chair World Energy Council Scenarios 2050 Project

1


Introduction

History of WEC Scenarios

WEC Goals The Three „A‟s

WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)

IEA Blue Map Scenario

How to get to 450ppm (2010)

WC Energy Scenarios 2050

Key Drivers

China, India and Africa

New Technologies

New Zealand, the lucky country for Energy Resources

CRL Energy Technology Package

Conclusions


Energy for Tomorrow‟s

World (1993)

Global Energy

Perspectives (1998)

Energy Policy Scenarios:

Deciding the Future

(2007)

Energy for Tomorrow’s

WorldThe Realities, the Real

Options and the Agenda

For Achievement

WEC Scenarios heritage

The World Energy Council has been involved with energy futures for more

than two decades. WEC’s first comprehensive study on energy, with a long

term vision, combining both global and regional perspectives, was the

groundbreaking “Energy for Tomorrow’s World” (1993). Since then, WEC has

been consistently producing scenario-based studies. The most recent WEC

Scenarios study (2007) with its main focus on policy.

WEF Energy IP Fall Strategy Meetying0 Dalain 5 September 2007© World Energy Council] Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all

WEC Millennium Goals (3 A’s)

ACCESSIBILITY: access to affordable modern

energy for all people

AVAILABILITY: reliable and secure energy

supply

ACCEPTABILITY: protect and preserve the local

and global environment


WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050

(2007)

Bottom up semi-quantitative “group analysis” Scenarios

based on 5 regional studies and 7 specialist groups.

GOAL to understand possible energy futures to 2050

identifying the role that policy actions could play to help or

hinder the achievement of the WEC 3As and hence energy,

economic, environmental and social sustainability

Modelling used to provided a consistency check on the

Scenarios.

67 MC Countries 398 individual participants


Policy Scenarios

HG-LC

Energy Nationalism

Scenario

HG-HC

Energy Globalism

Scenario

LG-LC

Laissez-faireScenario

LG-HC

Market Enterprise

Scenario

High

government

engagement

Low

government

engagement

High

integration/

co-operation

Low

integration/

co-operation

Leopard Giraffe

LionElephant


Accessibility

Africa

North America

Europe

Latin America

Asia

Low

Moderate

Good Leopard

Elephant

Giraffe

Lion


Availability

Africa

North America

Europe

Latin America

Asia

Low

Moderate

Good Leopard

Elephant

Giraffe

Lion


Acceptability

Africa

North America

Europe

Latin America

Asia

Low

Moderate

Good Leopard

Elephant

Giraffe

Lion


Key Messages

Global energy supplies will have to double before

2050

The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is

to get them from where they are needed most.

Reducing energy poverty in developing countries

will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases

Public and the private sectors need to work together

High energy prices will drive efficiency and attract

capital


Arenas for Action: Business and

Government

Increase in RDD&D, especially on accessibility

and acceptability initiatives.

Demand-side mobilisation.

Transport transformation with emphasis on

acceptability.

Risk management and fiscal consistency.

Protection and preservation of property rights

(both physical and intellectual).

Equitable movement of resources (goods,

services, know-how, skills, capital).


IEA Energy Technology Perspectives


Tanaka


Traditional Approach – Top-down

Many recent external in-depth studies of the

sustainability of energy systems

Most provide a strong top-down perspective

from experts

There is a focus on macro-economic and

global or regional energy aspects.

WEC EPS 2050 (2007) was already different

Expressing the realisation, that it is the decision

makers that influence, plan, and manage regional

and local energy systems on a daily basis.

The EPS 2050 report in 2007 captured and collated

their priorities and opinions, from the bottom up, in

each of the five regions of the World Energy

Council.

New WEC Energy Scenarios Project

Will be bottom-up, harnessing the knowledge embedded within WEC

network of member committees

Global, qualitative and descriptive picture of key issues and driving forces

in the energy landscape

Provide regional insights for public discussion

Open source energy models transparent assumptions

Early Deliverables will include papers on the impact of Fukishima and

MENA

Mobility


Messages for Asia

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Ktoe

China

India

Japan

Korea, Rep.

Indonesia

Australia

Thailand

Energy use (kilo tons of oil equivalent)1

1World Bank Statistics


Energy Drivers

It is expected that around 50% of the population growth between

2010 and 2050) will come from Asia (30% India, 10% China) and

most of the remaining from Africa. What a burden would this have on

demand for mobility and electricity?

As Asia‟s economic growth continues at high levels and the as GDP

per capita gap with the OECD closes (China closing from 20% in

2005 to 60% of the OECD-NA in 2050), how much pressure would

this have on energy demand?

In China by 2050, with only 11% increase in population, travel

demand is projected to increase 12-fold and travel energy demand 7-

fold. This is mainly due to higher personal vehicle penetration as

GDP increases. The same applies to a certain extent to India.


At least 1.5 billion people have no electricity and

another 2 billion lack adequate access

India

457million under 15 year olds (compare this with

China‟s 344 million)

400 million with no electricity

600 million cook with wood or dung

900 million have no refrigeration

China

Will get old before it gets rich

Will drive technology solutions

Then there is Africa

Africa is not short of energy!

Energy Poverty China India and Africa

18

Frank Clemente Professor of Social Science and Energy Policy

Penn State University from Clean Coal Technology 2011

China becomes leading user of energy

Published: June 8 2011 18:20 Financial Times

China overtook the US as the world’s largest consumer of energy

last year, during which global consumption growth was at its

highest rate since 1973, according to the BP statistical review of

world energy…….

……China became the largest wind-power generator, overtaking

the US and accounting for about 48 per cent of all new capacity.

19

New Zealand Energy Resources

NZ has 10 times more coal per capita than the average for the rest of the world. 9 billion tonnereserve

Woody Biomass Resources50% of transport fuel needs by 2050

70% renewable electricity Government aim to achieve 90%

Wind energy resource extensive Located in “Roaring Forties” Long coastline double advantage = predominately westerly winds and sea breezes

Over 500 MW of installed wind capacity and over 1,000 MW consented

20A Technology Package Utilizing

Coal, Biomass and Intermittent Renewable

Energy Co-gasification of biomass with coal

– Achieve economies of scale

– Increase efficiency of biomass gasification

– Reduce tar production

Integrating electrolysis – Energy storage balancing intermittent renewables

– Improve gas stream

– Reduce water-gas shift costs

Key issues – Accessing cheap intermittent renewable electricity

– Reducing electrolyser capital costs and increasing efficiency

Carbon Content Implications– Reduced carbon footprint of coal projects

– With CSS either lower cost of zero emissions or negative emission

21

heat

exchanger

- counter flow caustic wash

- WGS reactor

- H2 separation membrane systems

venturi

scrubber

flareexisting

systems

tar removal

system

steamO2airN2

cyclone

lock

hopper

feed

gasifier

1000oC

LPG pre-

heatergas pre-

heater

electrolyser

H2

Bypass line

Schematic of New

Technology Package

Fluidized Bed O2 Blown Gasifier

Biomass capability (50%)

Modular design 50kw unit

Ambient pressure system

Syngas quality > 20% H2

O2 and H2 from electrolyser stack

22

Syngas Routes

Conclusions Global energy supplies will have to double before 2050

The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get

them from where they are needed most.

Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be

priority over reducing greenhouse gases

New Zealand is a lucky country as far as energy resources

are concerned.

CRL Energy IRL Technology package combines strengths

and reduces weakness of coal, bioenergy and intermittent

renewable electricity.

23

World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective

Documents

Transcript of World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective