World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning, by …super7/14011-15001/14371.… · PPT file ·...
Transcript of World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning, by …super7/14011-15001/14371.… · PPT file ·...
Roger A Rosenblatt
February 12, 2004
Environmental Health and the Health Professional
Ecological Change and Human Health
The first step: Making the diagnosis
The Pathophysiology of the Global Health Crisis
• Fever - Global Warming• Asthma - Environmental Degradation• Alopecia - Deforestation• Thrush - Loss of Biodiversity• Scabies - Overpopulation
Symptom: Fever
Diagnosis: Global Warming
Global Warming - 1860-2000
-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
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1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
temp(F)
World Carbon Emissions from FossilFuel Burning, by Economic Region, 1950-94
Mill
ion
Tons
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
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6000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Developing Countries
Former Eastern Bloc
Industrial Countries
Global Climate Change:The Impact on Human Health
•
` Malaria, dengue fever, equine encephalitis, West Nile virus
Direct Effects:– Lethal heat waves– Potential extreme weather events – e.g. hurricanes
• Indirect Effects:– Increase in air pollution and respiratory disease
– Greater growth & dispersion of fungal spores – allergies– Rising sea levels
• Diseases that may become more common:–
– Lyme disease, hantavirus,– Cholera, Cryptosporodiosis
Symptom: Asthma
Diagnosis: Air Pollution
Symptom: Alopecia
Diagnosis: Deforestation
Deforestation Example
Symptom: Thrush
Diagnosis: Loss of Biodiversity
Extinctions of birds and animals1600 to present(Audubon society, 1998)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000(est.)
birdsmammals
Mass Extinctions:Loss of Biodiversity
0102030405060708090
100
1400 1600 1800 2100
SpeciesRemaining(%)
The Sixth Extinction
• Human-caused• Proceeding extremely rapidly• We have lost about 20% of species
that existed in the year 1800• We will probably lose 25-50% of
remaining species in the next century
Symptom: Scabies
Diagnosis: Overpopulation
World Population GrowthB
illio
ns
0123456789
1011
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
You Are Here(gradual economic decline)
overpopulation begins(unsustainability)
massive environmental destruction and loss of species beings
World Population Milestones
1 billion in 1804
2 billion in 1927 (123 years later)
3 billion in 1960 (33 years later)
4 billion in 1974 (14 years later)
5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)
6 billion in 1998 (11 years later)
There Is a Strong Association Between Mother’s
Age at First Birth and Subsequent Poverty
Age at First Birth (years)< 16 16-17 18-19 20-21 22-24 25
54%
44%36%
27%
11%7%
E = MC2
or
Environmental Impact = M(Population) xC(Consumption) squared
What can we do?• Adopt an ecological perspective• Reduce unwanted pregnancies in our
communities• Promote sustainable economic
development• Preserve natural habitat and the species
that depend on them• Include these issues in our academic and
clinical work
Adopting a Broader Perspective
in Public Health• The Biological Approach• The Biopsychosocial context• The Ecobiopsychosocial imperative
Most Pregnancies Are Unintended
20%
8%
29% 43%
mistimed pregnancies resulting in live births
unwanted pregnancies resulting in live births
unwanted and mistimed pregnancies ending in abortion
intended pregnancies resulting in live births
Slowing Population Growth by MeetingFamily Planning Needs, 1950-2100B
illio
ns o
f Peo
ple
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1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
if no family planning programs
if family planning programs continue at 1980-85 level
if all unwanted births are avoided
Sustainable Economic Development: Some roles for the health professional
• Use resources in a sustainable manner• Avoid polluting our natural resources• Address occupational and
environmental diseases• Serve as role models for those who
follow
Preserve Natural Habitats
• Create parks and ecological reserves• Safeguard rare and endangered
species• Protect and create forests• Support ecological restoration efforts
Next Steps• Work to broaden the curriculum • Respond to NIH’s Road-Map Initiative • Work with other complementary
groups on campus• Think about how a new discipline of
Population and Ecosystem Health might evolve