World Bank Reprint Series: Number 188

Tigani E. Ibrahim

Prospects for Export Growthin an African Economy:The Kenya Case

Reprinted with permission from Vierteljahresberichte: Probleme der Entwicklungslitnder,no, 80 (june 1980), pp. 121-38.

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vierteljahresberichte Nr. 80, 1980, S. 121-138 121

Tigani E. Ibrahim * Less-Developed Countries (LDCs) I theshare of agriculture in Kenyan total ex-

Prospects for Export Growth in an ports is not decreasing but either stagna-African Economy: The Kenya Case ting at a higher level than the 1969 base 2

or increasing. In 1969, 45.3 % of Kenyanexports consisted of agricultural products.

I. Kenya in the World Economy 1976 and 1977 witnessed an increase ofthis percentage to 58.6 % and 69.2 %

1. The Kenyan Export Structure respectively 3 . However, although thisshare was fluctuating in the years between,

The Kenyan export structure is an ex- it never slipped below its 1969 level. Inpression of numerous trade problems that average the share of agriculture in totalface Kenya today. Existing statistical data exports accounted for 52.6 % in the yearsshow a relatively high degree of depen- 1969-1977, thus reflecting an increase ofdency on agricultural products of which 16 % over the base year level of 45.3 %.only two items, namely coffee and tea, The increased dependency on agriculturalaccounted in average for more than 30 % products indicates the comparably slowerin thie periode 1969-1977. Contrary to the growth of Kenyan exports from fuel pro-general trend in the export structure of ducts and manufactures taken together.

Table 1: Exports Development, 1969-1977(in Kenyan Pound Million and (%) Share in total value)

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Total exports* 92.1 103.1 107.1 123.4 161.4 211.3 237.3 344.7 501.8of which: (100) (100) (100) (IOQ) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100)

Agricultural 41.7 51.6 48.4 63.7 88.2 103.9 117.8 202.0 347.3products (45.3) (50) (45.2) (51.6) (54.6) (49.2) (49.6) (58.6) (69.2)

Fuel products 13.0 14.4 18.4 19.3 21.3 45.6 60.4 71.6 84.0( 14.1) (14) ( 17.2) (15.6) (13.2) (21.6) (25.5) (20.8) (16.7)

Manufactured 37.4 37.1 40.2 40.3 51.8 61.8 59.1 71.1 70.5goods (49.6) (36) (37.5) (32.7) (32.1) (29.2) (24.9) (20 6) (14.0)

$ After valuation-and coverage adjustment.

Source: East African Community (EAC), Customs and Excise Dept. (CED): Annual Trade Report ofTanzania, Uganda and Kenya (ATRTUK), 1970-1972, 1975-1977 and Monthly Trade Statisticsof Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya (MITSTUK).

* Tigani E. Ibrahim is a Sudanese national, Ph. exports of LDCs declined from 72 % in 1960D. in Economics and Social Studies, University to 43 % in 1976 and is expected to be 29 %of Cologne, W. Germany, and is currently with by 1985. See ,,lmproving the Framework forthe World Bank in Washington, D.C. as an International Trade: The Current Issucs",economist in the Eastern Africa Region, Pro- World Bank, June 9, 1977, Table 1, p. 2.gram Department 1. He has published exten- 2 For Kenya, the years 1967 to 1970 weresively in Arabic, German and English. The Views normal years in terms of relatively stable ex-and interpretations in this paper are those of port growth and foreign exchange earnings.the author and should not be attributed to the From these years 1969 has been rigidlyWorld Bank, its affiliated organizations or any chosen as a base year for the analysis.individual acting on their behalf. 3 These relatively high shares are largely due to

the exceptionally high prices for coffee and1 The share of agricultural products in the total tea in world markets in 1976 and 1977.

122 Tigani E. Tbralhim

But typical for Kenya's exports is not period 1969-1977. Between 1970-1972 theonly their concentration on agricultural Kenya US dollar value of exports grew atproducts but also their strongly concen- a compound rate of 11 % per annum. Be-tration on two export items, coffee and tween 1972-74 the average compoundtea. The share of these in total exports rose growth in value terms was 26 % per year,from 30.5 % in 1969 to 55 %4 in 1977, in 1974-75 20 % and in 1975-1977althouglh the relative share of tea exports 27 %05. However the current rates ofkept - with the exception of 1972 and growth in 1974 and 1977 are misleading,1977 *- continuously declining. But even since the bulk of the increase reflects in-considering the fluctuations of coffee and flation in 1974 and the exceptionallytea exports through the years 1969-1977, high prices for coffee and tea in 1977.the annual average contribution of the During the whole period 1969-1977two categories to total exports was over Kenya's exports in value terms grew in30 %, still above tlicir 1969 share. This average by 24.7 % per year.relatively high and unchanged depein- Trends in export volume growth aredency on coffee and tea indicates that indicated in Table 2. With growth fromKenya has not yet succeeded in developing -4 % in 1969 to 13.8 % in 1973, fallinga viable and efficient alternative to these to - 11.7 % in 1975, rising to 6.0 % intwo major export items. 1976 and then falling again to 3.8 % in

1977, the clearest conclusion is that therehas been no steady acceleration. This in-dicates that the effect of faster growth of

. export value of items whose prices havebeen rising relatively rapidly was dilm ted byslow volume growth. World trade volumegrew annually by 8 % in 1969-1972 and

During the past eight years (1969-1977) 13 %, 5 %, 4.5 %, 11.0 Ct. and 6 %6 inKenya's overall export growth has been 1973-1977 respectively. In contrast toabove average compared to the average ex- these figures, Kenyan volume growth be-port growth in value terms of non-oil ex- tween 1969-1977 was poor in both averageporting LDCs of 18 % per annum in the and annual growth terms.

Table 2: Growth Rates of Kenyan Export Volume(%; per annum)

Annual Average1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1976 1977 1969-1977

- 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 13.8 - 3.2 -11.6 5.9 3.8 1.8

Source. J,International Financial Siatistics", IMF, January 1975, June 1977, and July 1979.

2.2 Kenya's Share in World Trade

As Table 3 shows, Kenya's share in 4 Tllis figure is on the high side mainly becauseworld trade slipped con1tiluously until of the coffee price boom in 1977. Therefore,p the share of the two commodities in total ex-1975, thus indicating the slower growth ports of 36.2 % in 1976 is a mnore reasonableof Kenyan exports compared to that of basis for comparison,world exports. While worid trade grew by 5 Figures were drawn from Tables 1 and 3.217 % between 1969 and 1975 and those 6 Figtires are drawn from different sources.

Prospects Jor Export Grovvthl in atn Aftrican lwonomtyl.: The KenYad Case 123

Table 3. Kenya's share in World Trade(US $ Millions and %)

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Kenya's lExport. 258 289 300 346 452 606 641 827 1 213

World Exports 272600 314 400 350(000) 417600 578300 8487(00 8641100 990 000 1 024 200

(Kenya's Fxports/World E'xpt. "p) 0.095 0.092 0.086 0.083 0.078 0.071 0,074 0.083 0.118

Loss in AggregateLxport l arnings* 9 33 51 97 204 180 114 240

* This means the loss in Kenya's cxport earnings because of its inability to n tainr;liri its 1969 share inworld exports.

Source: ,,Yearbook of International Trade and Stiatislic , UN, 1969-1975, I'able I in this paper and.,Mlonthly l3ulletin of Stalistics', [JN, vol. xxxi, No. 7, JUIly 1977, and lII', D)irectioni o Trade,1971-77:

of Africa by 210 7, Kenyan export dollar ever, world exports of fuel went from

value increase during the same period was US $ 22 billion in 1969 to UlS $ 205 bil-only 148 :8. The notable sign of improve- lion in 1975. In relative terms they grewment in 1976 and 1977 was mainly due to by 8 32 in the period 196 9-1975. Thethe exceptionally hiigh prices for Kenya's value of Kenya's cx;ports of miaiufactutedtwo most doininant export categories, goods rose from US $ 105 million to

coffee and tea. The refore, this cannot be US $ 160 million in 1975, a growtlh of

secn as a break-through in Kenya's export 52 C. By contrast, world exports of ianai-growth, factures grew by 216'7o over the same

The decline in Kenya's share of wvorld period.T ''his low growth of Kenyani mlianu-

exports in the years 1969-1975 has not fLctured exports is thL major factor m ex-

been across-the-board plhenomlenon. The pldining Kenya's poor performiiance invalue of Kenya's agricultural commodity world trade. The slhare (f manufactures inexports rose from US $ 117 million in total Kenyan exports kept continuously1969 to 318 million in 1975. Thus, agri- decreasing and went from 41 % in 1969 tocultural products accounted for aLmost 25 %c in 1975 to 14 % in 1977 (Table 1). A50 ' of Kenya 1969-1975 export value situation in which an export categorygrowth. During the same period wvorld ex- accouniting for 41 %',- of total exports grewports of agricultural products increased in value by only 47 % over a period of 8from US $ 59 billion to 1509 billion, years is likely to slow overall growth, inThus, Kenya's agricuiltural exports grew by the absence of extremiiely higlh growtlh in183 %; between 1969 and 1975, while the other categories.those of the world grew by only 154 I.Kenya's exports of fuel prodlucts rosefrom US $ 36.4 million in 1969 toUS $ 163.1 million in 1975. Thlis is equiva- 7 See ,%,Monthly 13ulletin of StatikmicY',, UiN,lent to an increase of 365 '. which re- vol. xxi, No. 7, July 1977, TIable 52, p. 111.presents the largest g,rowtli aniong all 8 158 I,' in Kenyan pound value.pree ten larg t goteaor n all 9 World figures for agriculttiral, fuel, and manu-three Kenyan export categories. In ab- factured exports were taken from ,,Statistical

solute terms this is larger than the total Yearbook, 1975", UN, Table 14, p. 55 andvalue grow th of manufactures but smaller ,.International Trale, 1975/76", GATT,than that of agricultural products. flow- Table 1, p. 4.

124 7igani E. Ibralhin

Finally, to picture Kenya's export per- during the period 1969-1977. However,formance in a more realistic way than the compared to other countries on the con-global comparison, it is worthwhile to tinent which are in a similar developmentallook at Kenya's past export growth within stage as Kenya, such as Senegal and Ivorythe African perspective. Within the East Coast, Kenya's past export performanceAfrican region, as Table 4 indicates. was less impressive in both absolute andKenya's exports showed the second highest relative terms in the pre-coffee and teagrowth in both absolute and relative terms price boom years 1969-1975.

Table 4: Value of total exports of selected African economies(in US $ Million)

1969 1975 1977 %Increase 1969--1977

Senegal 126 442 490a 289Ivory Coast 453 1,188 2,154 375Somalia 32 91 85a 166Kenya 258 641 1,213 370Ethiopia 119 239 333 180Sudan 248 438 661 167Tanzania 236 334 490 108Uganda 198 230 591 198

a 1976Source, Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, 1975, Vol. 1 and International Financial Statistics,IMF, July 1909.

2.3 Growth of New Export Items which is equivalent to an increase of 43 Y.Again, this is an indication of the com-

During the period 1969-1975 Kenya's parably quite high growth of the majorityexport changed little in aggregate and of the new categories, particularly thosecomposition. In 1977, the three initially now among the top 16. The five newdominant categories increased their share items in the top 16 increased their valuein total exports to 70 % from 40 % in share in total exports from 3 % in 1969 to1969, while the share of the 16 leading 6 % in 1977. However all new items arecategories in total exports shown in Table still too small in number and value to5 went up from 63 % in 1969 to 80 % in bring about a notable change in aggregate1977. On the whole, however, some chan- and composition of Kenya's exports inges had taken place by 1977 as can be seen the years to come.from Table 6. Before concluding the discussion of theIn 1977, five of the initially dominant growth of new export items, it is worth16 categories were no longer among the noting that the analysis also revealed in-leading 16. This was a result of a quite dications of significant import-substitu-rapid growth of a number of new export tion for some Kenyan exports to Tan-items, such as petroleum by-products, zania and Uganda. Two out of the fourpineapple-tinned, sodium carbonate, categories that were no longer among thebeans, peas and lentils, and insecticides initial top 16 in 1975, namely soap and(Table 6). Contrary to the initial top 16 soap preparations and footwear werecategories, the share of the top 16 in 1977 primarily exported to these countries.rose from 60 % in 1969 to 86 % in 1977, Between 1969-1975, Kenya's exports from

Prospects for Export Growth in an African Economy: The Kenya Case 125

Table 5V Value and growu th oJ major exports ranked by their importance, 1 969(in Kenyan Pound Millions)

1969 1975* 1977 % Increase 1'969- 1977

Coffee, not roasted 16.8 35.2 204.4 1116.7Tea 11.3 22.9 71.8 535.4Petroleum products 10.5 49.1 72.4 589.5Meat aned meat products 2.8 5.2 7.6 171.4Maize, unmilled 2.8 4.7 6.6 135.7Cement 2.4 6.0 8.6 258.3Pyrethrum extract 2.2 3.5 5.0 127.3llides and skins, undressed 1.9 5.4 8.0 321.1Sisalfiber and tow 1.7 7.3 4.1 141.2Soap and soap preparations 1.7 0.5 1.5 - 11.8Metal manufactures 1.6 2.6 5.9 268.8Paper and paper products 1.4 4.2 4.4 214.3Wattle bark extract 1.1 1.7 1.8 63.6Textile yarns, fabrics, made

up textiles, etc 1.1 1.5 0.7 - 36.4Footwear 1.1 0.2 0.3 - 72.7Fresh milk and cream 1.0 2.1 0.5 - 50.0

Total 61.4 152.1 403.6 557.3

%in total exports 63.1 64.0 80.4

* To demonstrate the impact oi hligh prices for coffee and tea in 1976 77.

Source: Annual Trade Report of Kenya (ATRK). 1969 77 and Kenya Sta3imical Abstract (KSA), 1976.

Table 6: Value and growth of major exports ranzked by, their imnportance, 1977

(in Kenyan Pound Million)

1969 1975* 1977 1 Increase 19t09 1977

Coffee 16.8 35.2 204.4 1116.7Petroleum products 10.5 49.1 72.4 589.5Tea 11.3 22.9 71.8 535.4Petroleum by-products 0.4 9.9 11.4 2750.0Pineapple, tinned 0.7 3.6 10.5 1400.0Cement 2.4 6.0 8.6 258.3Hides and skins, undressed 1.9 5.4 8.0 321.1Meat and meat products 2.8 5.2 7.6 171.4Maize, unmilled 2.8 4.7 6.6 135.7Paper anid paper products 1.4 4.2 4.4 214.3Sisal fibre and tow 1.7 7.3 4.1 141.2Pyrethrunm extract 2.2 3.5 5,0 127.3MIetal manufactures 1.6 2.6 5,9 268.8Insecticides 0.4 1.2 2.8 600.0Beans, peas and lentils 0.5 1.8 2.8 460.0Sodium carbonate 0.9 2.4 2.7 200.0Flourspar 1.0 2.5 -

Total 58.3 165.0 429.0 635.8% in total exports 60.5 69.8 85.5

* See Table 5, footnote

Souirce. ATRK, 1969-77 and Kenya Statistical Abstract, 1976, and Economic Survey 1978.

126 Tigani E. Ihralitn

the two categories to both Tanzania and in volume terms decreased by 7.600 me-Uganda declined continuously until they tric tons or by 10 % from the 1973 levelreached their exttemely low levels in these high price years 11, If the pro-enumerated in Table 5 by 1975 which duction figurt: (Table 7) .ie taken as aindicate an average decrcase of 76 % IO. basis for export volume, this figure will beAlso the slow growth of textile exports reduced to 5,000 metric tons, thus re-was maiinly due to the steadily decreasing flecting the share of stock buildup in theimports of the major customers, Tan- relatively high 1973 export figures.zania and Uganda, from Kenya's clothing However, the sharp drop in the coffee ex-exports. This means that while some port value in 1975 was clearly not due toKenyan exporters specialized primarily price but to a set back in prod uctionon cu:stain markets in Tanzania and Ugan- caused by bad weather conditions, forda, the latter started on their part to whiclh 1976-77 seem to have compensatedspecialize in substituting their imports in both price and quantity. On the whole,by establishing the same industries do- price appears to have badly affected thenmestically. Consequently, the reorienta- value growth of Kenya's coffee exportstion and, in the long-run, the restructuring only in 1971 where the value of theseof the Kenyan export industries subject declined by almost KL 3.0 million from itsto import-substitution in Tanzania and 1970 level as a result of the negative priceUganda has become not only necessary change. Contrary to this, there is.no clearbut inevitable after the break-up of the evidence that price was a constraint in theEAC. case of tea exports. It is interesting to notethat when tea prices were going down, teaexports in quantity terms were going up3. Kenya's Exports in the World Economny (1972/1973) and when prices first startedrecovering, exports fell back (1974) andTwo questions arise from the discussion first thereafter started responding to theof Kenya's relative export performance: rising prices in i975-1977. However, this(1) The impact - if any - of world mar- reverse development of quantity and priceket conditions on the slow growth of was again largely due to climatic condi-Kenya's initially dominant categories; tions, which were outside Kenya's con-and trol.

(2) Kenya's export orientation and the Regarding Kenya's third initially do-extent to which this has been a con- minant export category, namely pe-straint to a significant expansion. troleum products, the volume of exportsAs indicated in Table 3, Kenya's was inicreasing when overseas prices wereshare in world trade remained through decreasing (1970/71), it stagnated whilethe years pre to 1977 below its level in world prices went up by 167 % in 1974,1969. The aggregate total loss in earning declined as the price increased by 50 %over the period 1969-1977 was US $ 448 in 1975 and rose only slightly as the pricemillion, which is almost equal to Kenya's continued shooting up in 1976 and 1977.total export value in 1973. However, it Contrary to petroleum products, exportsappears that Kenya would have earned of meat products showed a good supplymore foreigni currency than it lost if it response to the price increases betweenhad at least maintained its export vo- 1969 and 1972, but dramatically droppedlume growth of 4-5 %in 1970-71. when the price reached new hleightsDuring the period 1969-1977, no clear (1 973/1974) and the clear sign of re-correlation between overseas prices andsupply responsiveness can be observed inthe case of coffee and tea, Kenya's two 10 The increase in exports of the tNvo categoriesmajor export itemns. While world prices for in 1977 was mainly due to Kenya's efforts tocoffee reached their highest level in the first re-orient its exports.half of the 70's in 1974 (K. Sh. 10.71 kg) 11 Thne price and quantity data in this paragraphand decreased only marginally in 1975 has been drawsi from Kenya Economic Sur-(K.Sh. 10.41/kg), Kenya's coffee exports vey, 1974-78.

Prospectsfor Export Growtvthl in att African Economty: Tfhe Kenya C'ase 127

Table 7: Marketing production of some major export crops(1000 metric tons)

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Clean Coffee 52.4 58.3 59.5 62.0 71.2 70.1 66.2 80.3 97.1Tea 36.1 41.1 36.3 53.3 56.6 53.4 56.7 62.0 86.3Pyrethrum Extract 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1Sisal 49.8 43.9 44.8 41.2 58.1 86.5 43.6 33.6 33.8Maize 280.0 205.7 256.6 373.0 440.8 365.4 487.8 564.7 424.0

Source. Kenya Statistical Abstract, 1974-1975 and Kenya Economic Survey, 1976-78.

covery came first when the price moved in 1975-1977 was not due to the fluctua-downward (1975). Maize exports also did ting price trend but was a direct resultnot show any noticeable reaction to up- of the sharp decline in marketed produc-ward price movements. While the price tion.was continuously rising through the years In conclusion, it is obvious that the stag-1973-1977, quantity of exported maize nation of Kenya's most dominant exportdeclined by 78 %o in 1974, rose sharply items was not necessarily determined byin the following year but fell again in stagnant demand on thc world market. For1976 and reached a record low in 1977. almost all of t nese commodities, KenyaImplicitly, Kenya's exports of cement is was neither in a positio i to maintain orthe only category anmong the observed increase seinificantly its export quai titicscategories that indicates a clear supply when price trends wcere leading upwardresponse to world price changes in the nor was it able to expand the volume ofyears 1969-1977. (Contrary to this were exports to offset the impact of price falls.Kenya's exports of pyrethrum extract. Therefore, the steady loss of world marketWhile world prices kept rapidly increasing shaor is an indicator of poor performancetbetween 1969 and 1977 and went up by for which the world demand situation can96.6 % per kg., the marketing production hardly be olamed. As wvithi regard toof pyrethrum extract was stagnating whetlher the new export categories, whichduring this time. were growing rapidly, have taken advanta-

In the case of hides and skins, Kenya's ge of what the world rnarket had offered,exports were fLLIctuating when prices were the answer is, at least for the categoriesalmost stagnant (1969-1971). As prices beans and peas, sodium carbonate, andreached their first peak in 1973, the tinned pineapple, only positive for thevolume of exports dropped sharply and first,then started a rapid expansion whenprices were stagnating (1974/1975). But Eince a category-by-category analysisby the time prices reachled their second of Keny's exports is beyond the scope ofpeak in 1977, the volume of exports this paper, the issuie of export orientationdecreased substantially. Similar trends can will be explored in aggrcgate terms in thealso be observed in the movements of sisal foIlocvirigexports. When the price experienced asharp drop in 1970 and a slight increase in In 1969, Kenya disposed alnost one1971, Kenya's sisal exports rapidly expand - foulrtli (23 %,) of its overseas exports oned in the first year and shlarply declned tlle UJnited Kingdom's markets and 13 %in the second. But thereafter, the suipply on African markets (Table 8). These re-was fairly responsive to the continuous lative sliares wvere down to 15 and 11 %and extremely high prices in 1972-1974. respectively by 1977. But still, the initialHowever, it is clear from Table 7 that the concentration on relatively stagnant ordramatic decline of the export quantity very slowly girowing markets parallels the

128 Tigani E. Ibrahim

concentration on stagnant commodities 12 . reorienting their export flows 14 , whileThe obvious major offset was the con- Kenya failed to achieve any significanttinuous and fairly rapid growth of exports growth, except to West Germany and theto West Germany. However, it is appro- Netherlands in 1977 1S. Contrary to this,priate to argue that the initial concen- it should be noted that besides their verytration of Kenya's exports on the United low level Kenya's exports to the new po-Kingdom's markets hindered toa large tential markets of the Middle East areextent the subsequent export growth, stagnant.given that other countries 13 succeeded in

Table 8: Domestic exports value by major country of destination(Kenyan Pound '000 and % in total domestic exports)

1969 % 1977 %

W. Europe 32,328 51 232.167 54United Kingdom 14,787 23 63,594 15W. Germany 7,848 12 85,951 20Netherlands 2,386 4 51,345 12

North America 6,400 10 36,050 8U.S.A. 5,007 8 27,592 6Canada 1,393 2 8,458 2

Africa 8,235 13 48,447 1 1Zambia 2,670 4 6,897 2Rwanda 774 1 5,836 1

Middle East 1,953 3 12,626 3South Yemen 343 . 5 4,139 1

Far East and A ustralia 5,454 9 26,779 6Japan 1,287 2 5,233 1Pakistan 321 . 5 7,243 2

Total Domestic Exports 63,332 428,900

Source: Statistical Abstract, 1975 and ATRTUJK, 1977.

12 According to Stern, divergences between the 13 For example, Pakistan, Hong Kong, andgrowth rates of a country's exports and the Singapore,world rates (or any other group of countries) 14 This applics in partirular to the processed andis explained by three factors. The couintry manufactured goods.may be concentrating on a group of commo- 15 In examining the reasons for the slackeningdities which could be growing at rates below Kenyan export growtlh rates in the secondor above the world average; it could be half of the 60s b means of a constant marketdirecting its goods to relatively stagnant or shares (CMS) analysis, Stein has found outbuoyant markets; or its changing world mar- that both unfavorable commodity compo-ket shares could be attributed to an impro- sition and stagnant markets contributedving or deteriorating competitive posture. See significantly to the discrepancy in Kenya andR.M. Stern and E.E. Leamer ,,Quantative world export growth rates. See ,,ExportInternational Economics", Boston 1970, Trends in East Africa", Leslie Stein, in: Deve-Chap. 7. lopment and Change, 8 (1977) p. 106.

Table 9: Kenyan exports as a percentage of GNP 1969-1977(Kenyan Million and % of GNP)

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Total Exports 97.3 109.0 112.0 128.3 168.0 218.41 237.84 345.5 501.8GNP* 521.95 574.40 617.09 704.05 789.04 957.13 1132.29 1172.19 1762,0 oTotal ExportsJGNP 100 18.64 18.98 18.15 18.22 21.29 22.82 21.00 29.47 28.5

* Current Prices

Source. Kenya Economic Survey 1970-78

Table 10. Effects of export growth on7 some important categories*

Exports Change in Exports Change in domestic Marginal Export- Average Export- Average Export-in 1970* 1970-1977 production, 1970-1977 Output Ratio Output Ratio, 1970 Output Rato, 1977

Yc % TO

Coffee ('000 metric tons} 53.7 40.6 58.0 105 92 97Tea ('000 metric tons) 35.1 35.1 45.2 78 82 81Sisal ('000 metric tons) 44.3 - 19.4 - 10.2 192*** 101 74Maize ('000 metric tons) 84.0 - 75.9 218.0 - 35 41 2Cement ( 000 metric tons) 513.3 148.8 352.3 42 65 58Petroleum ('000 metric tons) 1.728 - 363.0 323.0 - 111 71 49Products

* For the rest of the top 16 export items relevant data is lacking.** Due to the lack of data for petroleum products in 1969 the year 1970 has been taken as a base year instead.

* Negative export and output growth.

Source: Kenya Economic Survey, 1974 and 1978.

130 Tigani E. Ibralhim

4, Kenya's Export Dependency tion has been an across-the-boardphenomenon. Responsible for this si-

The foreign trade dependency of a tuation was particularly the spurt in worldcountry is measured here in terms of the prices for food and live animals, mineralrelative importance of exports for the fuels, and chemicals, which did worse thanGNP and thus for the economic growth of average. Although the improved terms of thethat particular country. Table 9 indicates trade situation in 1976 lasted throughthat exports generated 18.64 % of Kenya's 1977, further deterioration is consideredGNP in 1969 and 28.5 % in 1977. Although very likely thereafter. For the years tothe latter relative share was in large part in- come, the price prospects for Kenya's twofluenced by the high world prices for major export items, coffee and tea, as wellcoffee and tea, the tendency towards an as for sisal are expected to be significantlyincreasing dependency on foreign trade worse than average. While tea and sisalfor generating growth can still be observed prices are expected to start recovering byclearly, hence reflecting the faster growth 1985, no such indication is feasible forof exports compared to that of GDP in coffee exports. However, the prospectsrecent years. for beef, maize, cotton, and tobacco

Table 10 gives information on the prices are gloomy and all four items aresignificance of foreign trade for some im- expected to maintain their upward trendsportant export items and the export con- through the first half of the 80's. Thetribution of these items to growth be- largest price increases are projected fortween 1970-1977. In 1977, exports tobacco and beef, which are of no parti-accounted for about 50 % of total out- cular significance in Kenya's recent ex-put for petroleum products, 58 % for ce- ports.ment, more than 70 % for sisal, and 81 % Kenya's export bulk is in no case largeand 97 % for tea and coffee respectively. enough in total world exp'orts to affectCharacteristic for the core of categories price movements on the world market.is that they seem to apply simple and very Although it is extremely difficult tooften labor-intensive production methods deterniine the price elasticity of demandto exploit Kenya's available natural re- for Kenyan exports, for most categoriessources. It is noticeable, however, that the this is probably very high, partly becausemajority of the items are agricultural pro- of the high elasticities of substitutionducts, which show (maize excluded) the among products, for example betweenhighest export orientation. But while the coffee and tea and cashews and otherexport orientation seems to have decreased edible nuts, As a result, increased exportfor the overwhelming majority of products, volume will boost foreign exchangeit has increased for coffee. earnings ceteris paribus, thus helping

Kenya to expand its very small share inworld trade 17, But the projected prices

5. External Determitnantsof Kenya 's Exports 1 6

In general, prices are not strictly a con- 16 Equally important are the internal con-straint on export performance, but they straints. The impact of Kenya's basic eco-can certainly be a problem. Low export nomic stratcgy on export growth, the struc-prices affect not oally the foreign earnings ture of Kenyan indust.ics, price availabilityfrom different export activities but also and quality of inputs as well as the domesticthe average of export prices in relation to problems facing agriculture arC all factorsimport prices, which in turn determines with varying negative influence on exports.tie returns to exports as a whole. In the While analysis of thiesc factors are inevitablethe etuns o exort asa wlole Inthein dectermininig the overall context of con-light of this, it is appropriate to touch straints on Kenyan exports, this co-plexbriefly on Kenya's recent export price task goes beyond the scope of this paper.experience and prospects. 17 An interesting price related problem in

It is clear from Table 11 that, until LDCs are the widely spread discounts below1976, Kenya's terms of trade deteriora- prices of DCs oflered by exporters of the

Prospects for 1.:'xport Growth in an 4Ifrican Economy: The Kenya Case 131

Table 11 Terms o/-trade 1969 1977

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Food and LiveAnimals 123 133 112 100 89 80 66 94 180

Crude Materials,Inedible 87 86 81 100 140 157 106 101 114

Mineral Fuels 109 102 102 100 96 68 71 72 75Chemicals 133 134 143 100 86 70 70 60 63Manufactured

Goods 85 70 74 100 97 79 98 107 126Overall Terms

of Trade 103 109 102 100 97 85 80 91 120

Source: Kenya Economic Survey, 1974, 1978.

Table 12; Commodity prices and price projectiont in current dollars

Actual ProjectedCommodity Unit 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Coffee ¢ /kg 315.7 530.9 365.7 281.0 272.0 373.0Tea ¢ /kg 153.7 - 268.7 218.9 212.3 200.6 264.3Beef 0/kg 72.1 75.8 86.6 143.0 140.0 184.0Maize $/MT 112.4 95.3 100.7 120.0 159.0 234.2Sisal $/MT 468.8 515.0 475.0 450.0 400.0 500.0Cotton ¢ /kg 174.8 162.9 160.7 161.0 198.4 285.5Tobacco $/MT 1 304.0 1 550.0 1 820.0 2 010.0 2 170.0 3 190.0

Source: Commodity Price Forecasts, World Bank, May 1979.

and the likely expected deterioration of munity's (EC) markets, where Kenyathe terms of trade, indicate that only disposed more than 40 % of its total ex-substantial volume increases can com- ports in 1977. In other major marketspensate for the loss in foreign exchange such as the USA, Japan, and Canadaearnings. However, the analysis of several Kenyan exports are affected byKenya's export performance has clearly both tariff and non-tariff barriersshown that Kenya has never been able to (NTBs), mostly in form of quotas in theexpand its export volume to compensatefor such losses, let alone to achievegrowth in real export earings. industrial sector. In Kenya, there is no clear

One other export constraint to be evidence of the existence of this system,looked at is the trade policy of DCs. whicii reduces the rTCturns to exporters inHowever, existing analysis 18 indicates the short run.that on the bisis of the Lome Conven- 18 See ",The GSP and the Lomb Convention"lion almost '1l of Kenyan exports (99 %,j) TD/B.C.5/49/Add. 1, UNCTAD, Geneva,have free access to the European Com- April 21, 1977.

132 Tigani h. Ibrahimn

case of the latter ' 9. While only Japan 1.1 Slhort Run Prospectsimposes a tariff rate of 35 % on tea im-ports, Kenyan exports from canned fruits In the near term the analysis of overallface tariff rates of 25 % in Japan and exports and major export categories in-Canada and 4 % in Japan and Australia. dicates that Kenya's real export growthThe latter is, however, the only developed could be, based on historical experience,country where Kenyan exports of maize in the range of 8-11 %2 l per year. Theand sisal are subject ot tariffs of $ .003/ most important contribution is likely tokg + 10 % and 10 % respectively. In the come from meat and meat preparation,U.S.A., Australia, Canada, and Japan, fruit and vegetables, pineapples, hidesKenya's exports from fresh vegetables and skins, petroleum products, chemicals,face protectionist measureis that include paper and paper products and cement.discretionary licensing (Australia), Where excess capacity exists, policies toseasonal restrictions, and tariffs ranging expand exports should also enable Kenyabetween 1.5 % and 24 %. Strong pressures to increase both production and domesticfor protection tend particularly to occur expenditures. A particularly importantin areas where a significant market pene- aspect of policy is the import liberali-tration can be achieved (i.e., relatively zation that results from an improvedunprocessed and processed food pro- foreign exchange situation. In any eco-ducts). However, although it is difficult nomy heading towards financial inde-to tell how serious the impact of the quota pendence, the latter itself is a result ofrestrictions on exports is, one can argue improved export performance whichthat quotas may have a protective function follows, in turn, from more generous andfor less competitive Kenyan exports reliable export incentives.against competition from third countries. Kenya's export performance couldIn addition to the existing quotas, ten- still be better than expected even in thedencies in developed country trade poli- short run. One possible way to achievecies indicate that Kenya's labor intensive this is to introduce or continuc to im-exports such as footwear and leather prove export incentives for those effi-products are subject to face binding quota cient and labor-intensive industriesrestrictions in the future. This may also be such as footwear, wood products, handi-applied to a few agricultural products such crafts, textiles, and leather products thatas tobacco. have been relatively neglected in the

past. A review of the currently operating

II. Export Prospects, Issues andPolicy Options

19 Source of data on protection for countries1. The Prospects f(,, Kenyan hZxports other than the EEC: Various UNCTAD

documents and ,,Trade Liberalization",The general prospects for Kenyan ex- World Bank, June 1977, Annex E, Table 2,pothe genbera prospectinshfort Knandln e--u pp. 2 and 4.ports can be viewed in short and long "un 20 According to ILO-Report 12 of Kenva's im-

perspectives, In the short run the export portant industries are producing witl almoststructure is largely given and there is rio full capacity (140 hours a week or more).indication of considerable excess ca- Among these industries are petroleum pro-pacity in the major export categories 2 0 . ducts, cement, wattle bark extracts, pyreth-In the longer-run, Kenya faces, as will be rum extract and paper and paperbuardL.seen, a range of policy options. The See ,,Employment, Incomes and Equality:decisions among these will determine, A Strategy for Increasing Productive Em-

besies hei diectimpat o ecnonticployment in Kenya", ILO, Geneva 1972,besides their direct impact on economic p. 183. However, this ILO-finding is nodevelopmen^t, whether Kenya's export longer valid after the breakup of the EAC.performnance will improve and in what 21 Derived from Table 1 and an estimatedareas. annual inflation rate of 9-12 '. for Kenya.

Prospects for Export Growth in an AJrican Econonzy: Thte Kenya Case 133

export compensation system 2 2 with the Future prospects of world trade areaim of relating it to domestic resource largely a matter of speculation. Theycost of earning foreign exchange as well depend on both the economic growthas extending it across all manufacturing in the major trading powers and theactivities, would probably prove a useful strength of the tendency towards in-step. creased international division of labor.

The current World Bank projection ofweighted average real GDP growth in

1.2 Long Run Prospects the major trading countries (DCs) is 4.5 %per annum between 1975 and 19852 3.

In determining the value of an in- On this basis world trade might grow atcreased emphasis on exports the major 6-8 % per year in real terms. For ainitial question is the international country whose share in world trade is lesssituation within which Kenya will act, than 0.1 %, whose expected real exportIn this context three distinct questions growth is only 8-1 1 %, and which has aarise: number of potential exports which are(1) Is Kenya constrained by the current insignificant in world trade, z reasonable

size of the world market? evaluation has to be that, whatever the(2) Is Kenya constrained by trade problems facing some specific categories,

restrictions, where it is not con- its own supply is far more likely to be astrained by the world market? constraint than world demand. The ana-

(3) How fast can world trade be ex- lysis of the impact of world market condi-pected to grow? tions on the slow growth of Kenya's initial

The answer to the first question is dominant categories supports this asser-simple: In those export categories in tion.which (beside coffee and tea) Kenya'sexport future might be expected to lie,namely in the most promising category,petroleum products, chemicals, fruit and 2. Issues and Policy Optionsvegetables, meat and meat products, ce-ment, tinned pinieapples, and hides and The most important issue is preciselyskins, pyrethrum flowers, paper and that of the relationship between exportpaper products, machinery and transport and import policies. Current Kenyanequipment, and textile yams, fabrics, strategy can roughly be defined as follows:made-up textiles, etc., Kenya's shares in While export policy is designed to promoteworld trade are very small. They range most feasible exports, imports need to befrom less than 0.1 % in the case of tex- restricted to ,,essential" goods throughtiles to about 1 % in the case of coffee. raising sales taxes and through passing onTherefore, it does not seem reasonable price increase in full to consumers in caseto assume that the world market itself of oil imports with the aim of decreasingwill be a constraint to Kenyan exports in Kenya's overall import dependency.the foreseeable future.

Trade restrictions, actual potential,are not always a constraint, but in cer- 22 According to this system compensation istain cases they could be a real threat to limited only to a group of selected 'subsidyexports. The classical case is that of needy' industrial products and cannot becotton textiles where growtih is restricted claimed together witlh duty drawbacks. Theto a certain percentage per annum in vo- compensation rate is set at 10 % of f.o. b.lume terms by quota. However, as it has value of exported items. Kenya's present ex-been seen, potentiai Kenyan exports have port poronotion policies will be dealt vithlfree access to the markets of the major extencively by the author in ,,K'enya's BasiceEconomic Report", a forthcoming WorldKenyan export receiver the BC, and only Bank document.some of them face minor restrictions in 23 See ,,Price Prospects for Major Primaryother potential markets such as those of Commodities", World Bank, June 1977,the U.S.A. and Japan. Table 6, p. 14.

134 Tigani E. Ibrahim

However, the restriction of imports to the of import and export duty rates. Basic-vague term ,,essentials" can easily result ally, it is the protection of the domesticin a tendency towards considerable specia- market which causes the terms of tradelization in imports, little specializationi in to favor the import-substituting sectorexports, and very little specialization in at the expense of the export sector, stillthe economy as a whole. The discussion dominated by primary products. There-of Kenya's export structure where the fore, a reduction of existing average ofrelative share of manufactures in total import and export duty rates could pro-exports has been continuously declining, vide a significant incentive to generatedespite the rapid expansion of industrial and sustain industrial growth in the ex-production, appears to support the port sector. This could be attained byexistence of such a one sided specialization lowering or eliminating tariffs2 5 on im-in Kenya. ported industrial raw materials, inter-

But while the approach of restricted mediate goods, and capital goodsimports is costly2 4 , it is not inconsistent essential for export oriented industriali-with a coherent export policy with some zation and the production of inputs thatmodifications, provided a desired level of can replace imports. But since tariffs onimports can be defined. However, two the latter two categories are generallyproblems have to be considered in this low in Kenya, this step could further berespect: strengthened by improving and extending(a) The quantity of iInports is arbitrary the export subsidies to all mnanufactu-

and the process of achieving it does reS2 6 . Both measures combined wouldnot generate any automatic equilibra- help bring together the purchasing powerting mechanism for export incentives; parity of effective exchange rates for im-

(b) It is almost impossible to predetermine ports and exports and, as a result, coulda policy to achieve a given export prove to be a potential stimulus to achievetarget. While imports can be deter- some degree of specialization in economnicmined by quantitative restrictions, activity as a whole and avoid developnientthis does not apply for exports. of one-sided specialization. In additiori,

In spite of these difficulties, the fact the decreased average domestic protec-that Kenya's industrialization policies tion would open import-substitution in-seem to have failed in generating a ba- dustries for competition, thus avoidinglanced inward and outward oriented inefficient allocation of resoulrces 2 7 .specialization in production implies that Consequently, protected industries whichit is still more profitable for producers ou tgrow the infant stage will not becometo produce imrport-substitutes than goods high cost producers, hence benefittingfor export. The result of these export home consumers. In concluision. Kenya'sdiscouraging import substitution policies current trade policy goal can be reformu-was, as has been seen, the increased de- lated in a compreliensible manner: it ispendency on agricultural exports. Thisand the terms of trade argument reinforcethe need for diversification in the compo- 2-4 It is estimated that due to import controlssition of Keniya's export structure if na- Kenya lost customs revenue ot about KLtional development efforts in the long-run 7 million in 1972. See ,,Kenya, into theperspective are to have a better change of Second Decadee", World Bank, 1975, p. 299.success. In Kernya, both import and exchaiieg con-

To achlieve export diver-sification, trols are applied.Kenya will have to cncoural'e and permit 25 Thle resultant revenue loss can be accounteda fast growth of processinig and manu- for througl excise and sales taxes wvhichlfacturing througlh a balance strategy apply eqlually to imported and domloesticallyaimed at acconil)[ishing botli iniiporL- produced goods.atimestitutioi accomplishigort e son ga26 Actual ~tal export compeim-z.ion paymentssuhbstitution and export expnsion goals for 1977 were only KL 3.3 nmillion.by offsetting the bias of import substitu- 27 It is estimatL-d that in 1972 Kenya's importstion policies against exports. To do this, andI iinporti duties could be 23.6 '%: higherattention should be given first to average than they were if there were no controls.

Prospects for Export Growthl in ani African L'con.om: The Keniy a Case 135

to achieve a level of exports, at least cost, gree of continued modernization whichsufficient to enable Kenya to import is Inot happening to any great extentwithout constraining the desired level of now.imports in ,essentials". The products which Kenya can supply

The small size of the Kenyan domestic and for which there is a potential marketmarket inhibits future growth, as plants in the OlC(s are fresh fruits and vegetables,of minimum optimal scale could hardly be meat, cannied foods, edible oils and fats,established. The same market considera- soaps, detergents, medical appliances,tion, plus the high capital output ratio hardware (including cement and timber),also precluded the extension of import- textiles, handicrafts, cut-flowers, pottedsubstitution from light consumer goods plants, printing inks, and paper products.to intermediate products, maclinery and But before Kenya can start exploitingconisumer durables. Moreover, the diffi- the potential market of the OECs, aculty to control supply or demand for number of problems, including the mo-coffee, tea and other primary products dernization aspect, must be overcome.of interest to Kenya makes it unprofitable Trhe most important of these is the trans-to continue reliance on such exports of portation facilities. Regular shipping andagricultural products. Faced with this di- air freight connections between Kenya andlemma, an export promotion strategy the Middle East are presently lacking, thuswith emphasis on labor-intensive light manu- constraining the rapid expansion of ex-factures, making use of Kenya's abundant ports. Moreover, this situation is aggravatedand relatively cheap but mostly illiterate la- by the current congestion of most of thebor force, appears to be a logical answer to Middle East ports. There are also commu-achieve a high degree of export diversity. In nication problems whichl seem to impairaddition, by exposing the protected in- the intensification of Kenyan exports. Ondustries to the full vigors of international their tour to the Middle East, recentcompetition, production would be nmade Kenyan Trade Mission received complaintsmore efficient (throughl the operation of that telex messages and letters often re-the ,,learning curve") and an incentive maiiL unanswered and that there are longwould be provided for more product inno- shipping delays by Kenyan exporters. Thevations and technological progress, mission also found out that the packing ofIn future, DCs are bound to remain the Kenyan goods, expecially canned product,largest markets for Kenya's agricultural do not fully match up to the requiredand relatively simple industrial products, standards in the OECs and clearly lack thenot least because of the strong emphasis sophistication of those of other competingon import-substitution of neighboring countries in the Far East and Europe,African and other developing countries, whose products incorporate simple thingsBut based on her export structure and geo- such as pop-open cans and labelling ingraphical location Kenya can reduce her Arabic and English. Moreover, Kenyandependency on these markets by signi- goods to the markets of the Middle Eastficantly raising the low level 2 8 of hier are expected to meet severe competition,exports to the new potential markets of particularly in price and quality, fromthe oil exporting countries (OECs) of the East European and Far East countriesMiddle East. A better strategy will be, such as Romania, Yugoslavia, Japan,of course, to develop new markets while South Korea, China, Hong Kong andat the same time consolidating the hold Taiwan.of the traditional ones. However, this As with regard to the transportationseems to be, at least in the near termni, ex- problem, Kenya conducts currently thetremely difficult to achieve, since it is bulk of its foreign trade through char-likely that the OECs are to be governed tering 2 9 . For a country with an annualin their purclhases by developed countrystandards in terms of quality. Therefore,if Kenya desires to export heterogeneous 28 See Table 8.industrial goods to these countries, then 29 The East African National Shipping Lineshe would have to undertake some de- (EANSL) which was established jointly by

136 7T uni li. Ibrahiim

trade capacity of over KL 900 million port substitutes, but could have only veryand an increased foreign trade dependenicy little immediate effect on the incentive tothere seems to be no economic justifi- produce particularly industrial exports. Butcation for not having, at least, a relatively even as a means to improve the foreignadequate national shipping fleet, though exchange situation, depreciation of cur-the relative costs may be hiigher in the rency rates does not seem to be the rightshort run than chartering 3 0 . Operating as policy for Kenya to pursue. Lack of aa commercial enterprise, thus making convertible currency which devaluationprofit, a national shipping fleet will bring would allow utilization of potential excessin the long run not only additional capacity and worse, the low price elasticityfinancial resources and ensure the regular of demand for the most dominant Kenyanflow of imports and exports and hence export categories do not appear to supportmake it possible to exert a greater degree such a policy. Therefore, it appears appro-of control over external trade, but also priate to suggest the concentration ofguarantee reasonable and stable trans- efforts in Kenya on promotion of manu-port costs, which are essential for exports factured exports, preferably through a dualsuch as those of Kenya that are facing exchange rate system, trade liberalizationprice competition from third countries. and inflation control below world level asThis gives rise to the urgent need for a viable alternative to the conventionallyconsidering and exploring the possibility inherited across the board devaluation.of establishing an adequate Kenyanshipping line and the optimal use of allexisting national air facilities.

Moreover, maintaining both world and Zusammenfassungdomestic agricultural producer prices inharmony with each other and, therefore,away from the tendency to put the latter Kenias Exportstruktur weist im Zeit-above the first, could have a significant raum 1969/77 sehr geringe Diversilat undimpact on directly increasing the compe- eine zunehmende Abhiingigkeit von Agrar-titiveness of Kenyan agricultural exports produkten auf. Der Ausfuhrwert erhohtein the OECs and elsewhere. Putting sich nur wenig wahrend dieser Zeit. DasKenya's exporters in a relatively secure volumenmf.ige Waclistum zeigt keineand competitive position would enable stetige Zunahme und war im jahrlichenthem to exploit and maintain a potential Durc.lischnitt ebenfalls gering. Kenias An-share of the market gaps; a process that teil am Welthandel nahm folglich standigmay, in the medium run, result in the ab. Insgesamt gab es nur einige kleineresolution of the quality problem. But since Veranderungen in der Exportzusammenset-the latter is a time related problem, it zung. An Stelle von 5 der ursprunglichenappears that efforts should be concentrated 16 wichtigsten Exportguter waren 1977first on the price and the packing as well 5 neue getreten. Diese Ver5nderungen sindas the labelling problems. noch zu gering, um in den kommenden

Related to the price argument as a Jahren einen bemerkenswerten Wandel inmeans of export expansion is the question Kenias Exportstruktur heivorzubringen.of depreciation of currency rates. Since Kenias schwache Ausfuhrleistung bringtdevaluation in a developing economy with die Frage auf, ob Weltmarktbedingungenno convertible currency results in in-creasing import prices and keeping exportprices largely unchaniged, the anti-exportproduction bias of such a measure is the EAC-mnemnbers and Zambia in 1966 isobvious. Therefore, in a protected market now defunct. It is assumed lhat it operatedsuch as that of Kenya curreiicy devalua- oonly 7- IO % of the totdl traffic of cargotions regardless of the difficulty to goods.n 30 1:thiop i and Sudan who lhave even less tradeprecisely define what a correct exchange capacity than Kenya seem to have succeededrate is, could have a significant positive in establishing cfficieiut national shippingeffect on the incentives to produce im- fleets.

Prospects for Export Growtlh in an African Economy: Thle Kenya Case 137

und Exportorientierung einer signifikanten keit einer Exportdiversifizierung hervor,Exportausweitung im Wege standen. Die um die nacliteilige Abhaingigkeit von un-Analyse zeigt, daft die Weltmarktsituation sicheren traditionellen Agrarprodukten undkaum fur die Stagnation bei den wichtig- die einseitige Spezialisierung der Wirt-sten Ausfuhrgutern verantwortlich ge- schaft zu uberwinden. Dazu bedarf es ei-macht werden kann. Es gab jedoch anfang- ner Korrektur der exportdiskriminieren-lich eine Konzentration auf relativ stag- den Importsubstitutionspolitik. Dies kannnierende oder nur sehr langsam wachsende am besten dadurch erreicht werden, daBMarkte und auf Guter mit stagnierender die Ein- und AusfuhrzolIe gesenkt werden,Nachfrage. Was das Verhaltnis der Exporte die Inflationsrate unter dem Weltniveauzum BSP betrifft, so wurde eine zunehmen- gehalten wird und Geltungsbereich undde AuBenhandelsabhangigkeit festgestellt, Effizienz der industriellen Exportanreizein der sich das schnellere Wachstum der Ex- vergrbBert werden.porte gegenuber dem des BSP widerspie- Zusammen angewandt, werden diesegelt. Trotzdem verschlechterten sich die MaBnahmen als adaquater angesehen alsterms of trade des Landles fast stindig. Ob- eine Wihrungsabwertung, die bei der ge-gleich die 1976 verbesserten Austausch- gebenen Wirtschaftsstruktur Kenias keinverhaltnisse auch 1977 anhielten, wird ei- geeignetes Mittel zur Exportankurbelungne weitere Verschlechterung nach 1977 zu sein scheint.als sehr walirscheinlich angesehen. Die Aus-sichten fUr Kenias Exportpreise sind insge-samt dUster. Kurzfristig k6nnten KeniasAusfuhren real um 8 bis 11 % jahrlich zu- Resumenehmen. Die Zunahme k6nnte noch h6herals erwartet ausfallen, wenn die Exportan-reize fur effiziente und arbeitsintensive In- La structure des exportations du Kenyadustrien wie die Schuh- und Lederindustrie montre une tres faible diversit6 pour laausgeweitet und verbessert werden. Das periode de 1969 a 1977 et une d6pendancedurchsc}nittliche teale Wachstum in den croissante des produits agricoles. La valeurentwickelten Lande-n wird zwischen 1975 des exportations n'a augmente que faible-und 1985 auf 4,5 % veranschlagt. FUr die ment pendant cette periode. Quant a lagleiche Zeit wird eine jahrliche Zunahme croissance en termes de volume, I'augmen-des Welthandels um 6 bis 8 % erwartet. Fur tation n'est pas constante et etait aussiKenia, dessen Anteil am Welthandel nor- faible dans la moyenne annuelle. La partmalerweise weniger als 0,1 % ausmacht, du Kenya au commerce mondial a doncdessen erwartetes Wachstum nur zwischen diminue de facon continue. Dans 1'en-8 % und '1 1 % liegt, und das eine Reihe von semble, il n'y avait que quelques petitsunbedeute.nden Exportgutern besitzt, stellt changements dans la composition des ex-die Angebotskapazitat auf lange Frist viel portations. Cinq des seize biens d'expor-eher ein Hindernis dar als die Weltnachfra- tations les plus importants a l'origine,ge. avaient et6 remplac6s par cinq nouveaux

Aufbauend auf seiner Exportstruktur produits en 1977. Ces ciangements sontund seiner geographischen Lage hat Kenia trop insigniifiants pour entrainer une trans-nun die Gelegenheit, seine Abhangigkeit formation importante dans la structure desvon den traditioneUen Mairkten Westeuro- exportations du Kcnya au cours des pro-pas, Nordamerikas und Japans zu verrin- chaines annees.gem, indem es seine Ausfuhr in die neuen Ces faibles resultats sur le plan des ex-potentiellen Markte der 6lexportierenden portations du Kenya soulevent la questionLander intensiviert. Aber bevor Kenia diese de savoir si les conditions du marche mon-Mfarktchancen wahrnehmen kann, muB dial et l'orientation des exportationseine Reihe von Problemen wie M odernisie- elaient les obstacles (qui s'opposaient a unerung, Transport und Verpackung gel6st expansion significative des exportations.werden. L'analyse montre que la situation du

Die Diskussion der kenianischen Export- march6 mondial ne peut guere etre renduestruktur hebt die dringende Not%vendig- rcsponsabl de la stagnation des principaux

138 Tigani E. Ibruh/im

produits d'exportation. On note, toLtefois, sans importance, la capacite de son offreau debut une concentration sur des mar- constitue l'obstacle a long terne, bien plusches en stagnation relative ou a croissance que la demande mondiale.tres faible et sur des produits pour lesquels Partant de sa structure d'exportatioisla demande n'augmentait pas. En ce qui et de sa position g6ographique, le Kenyaconcerne le rapport entre les exportations a l'occasion de diminuer sa dt6pcndance deset le produit national brut, on constate march6s traditionmmels de l'Airope occiden-unc dpepi'dance croissante du commnerce tale, de l'Am6rique doi Nord et dLo JapoIIext6rieur dans laquelle se reflete la crois- ern intensifiant ses exportationis vers lessance plus rapide des exportations par non CuLIX marchehs potentiels des paysrapport au produit national brut. Malgr6 exportateurs de petrole. Mais avant (lue lece fait, les lernies d'6change du pays se Kenya puisse exlploiter ses possibilites desont presAUe consta;nimnent deterior6s. Bien marche, nombre de probl&mes comme laque les termes dI'6change se soient aTnelio- modernisation, les transports et l'ernballageres en 1976 et se SLiellt maintenus en dnivent *tre rcsolus.1977, une det6rioration ult6rieure apres La discUssion sur la structure des ex-1977 semble tres probable. Les perspecti- portations du Kenya soulignie la n6cessit6ves pour les prix a l'exportation du Kenya peremptoire de div%ersifier les exportationssont dans 1'ensemble mauvaises. A court afin de surmonter l'incmnvenient de laterme, les exportations du Kenya pour- dependance des pr.OdUitS agricoles tradi-raient augmenter en termes reels de 8 a tionnels et incertains et de la sp6cialisa-11 %lo par ann6e. L'augmentation pourrait tion trop uinilat;rale de l'economie. A cetteetre supe'rieure a celle csconiptie, si les fin il faut q*ue la politiqueti de substitot ionmesures ('encouragenictit des exportations des iriupo.rlations (liscriniindlut les x\jorta-pouvaient etre elargies et ameliorees pour tiolls soit corrigee. ('ette 'l-rectioni peutdes indLIstries efficaces et cngageait une etre apr)ort6e lc plus facilemeint enl abais-main-d'oeuvre iniportante, comme l'in- sant les droits de douane .i l'inpou tat iondustrie de la chaussure et dtu cuir. La et F 1'xportat ioi, en iaintienanit le tlaux

croissance moycoine r6elle des pays en d'inflation au-dessous du niveau mondialvoie de developpement est estinice a 4,5 et en auguncrntanii la portee et Fefficacit6pour la d6cennie allant de 1975 a' 1985. des stimulations a 1'exportation inidtistriel-Pour la meme periode, la croissance aniiiinel- le.le du commerce mondial est esconipt.e a Appfliques eriseinble, ces mesures sont6 ou 8 %. Pour le Kenya, donit la part au cmnsild6r6es plus ad&luates qu'une d6valua-commerce mondial est normalement de tion de la roninaie qoi, daims la structuremoins de 0,1 d, dont les estimations de economiqlue actuelle dlu Kenya, ne semblecroissance se situent entre 8 et 11 I,(, et qui pas Ctre le moyen approprie a promouvoirpossede nombre de biens d'exportationi les exportations.

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