World Bank Global Economic Outlook January 2012

7/31/2019 World Bank Global Economic Outlook January 2012

1/15

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Ohlfjh Cglklmig vlw~cgpw Djksjvy 6>:6 Glmmlìpy Jkkcr

Elhhlwiko mlvc pbjk pwl ycjv le pvlko ovlwpb(glmmlìpy ~vigc ~cjac` ik cjvhy 6>:: jk` pbck`cghikc` lk glkgcvk jflsp pbc ohlfjhmjgvlcglklmig jk` eikjkgijh lsphlla jk`hlwiko `cmjk` ik cmcvoiko mjvacp( klpjfhyGbikj "eiosvc Glmm+:)+ Pbc fioocp `cgvcjcwcvc elv mcpjh fsp lmc le pbc hjvocpikìui`sjh `cghikc wcvc jmlko jovigshpsvc vjwmjpcvijh "glpplk jk` vsffcv)( cìfhc lih"glglksp jk` ~jhmacvkch lih)( jk` glglj+ Mlpikìgc ck`c` pbc ycjv msgb hlwcv glm~jvc` plpbciv cjvhy-6>:: ~cjajovigshpsvc `lwk :9~cvgckp( ckcvoy `lwk :> ~cvgckp( jk` mcpjh

`lwk 63 ~cvgckp+

Pbc vcglucvy ik ~vigc ik 6>>9-:> wj `sc plpvlko cglklmig ovlwpb( vc-plgaiko ik Gbikj(jk` j ksmfcv le s~~hy glkpvjikp+ Ik cjvhy6>::( cucvjh ìvs~pilk( ikghsìko `vlsobp jk`bcjuy vjik pbjp jeecgpc` mlp jovigshpsvcmjvacp j wchh j gljh jk` mikcvjh lsp~sp ikujvils hlgjhc( ~sbc` ~vigc pl jkksjh biob+^lhipigjh skvcp ik Klvpb Jevigj jk` pbc Mi``hcCjp vcshpc` ik j hl le iokieigjkp lih s~~hic(mlp im~lvpjkphy ik Hifyj+ J mjvacp jflvfc`pbcc ìvs~pilk jk` s~~hy glkìpilk

im~vluc`( ~vigc fcojk pl glmc sk`cv j`ìpilkjh`lwkwjv` ~vcsvc evlm hlwiko `cmjk` jk`skgcvpjikpy jflsp pbc kcjv-pcvm cglklmig jk`

eikjkgijh lsphlla+

Glmmlìpy ~vigc jvc ockcvjhhy cr~cgpc` pl`cghikc evlm pbciv biob hcuch ik 6>:6 `sc pl jhlw`lwk ik `cmjk` jk` im~vluc` s~~hy~vl~cgpik ~jvp fcgjsc biob ~vigc bjuc hc`pl ovcjpcv ikucpmckp+ Gvs`c lih ~vigc jvccr~cgpc` pl jucvjoc $92,ffh ik 6>:6( jsmikopbc ~lhipigjh skvcp ik pbc Mi``hc Cjp iglkpjikc` jk` Hifyjk gvs`c cr~lvp vcpsvk pl pbcmjvacp+ Mcpjh ~vigc jvc cr~cgpc` pl `cghikc fy5 ~cvgckp ik 6>:6 lk ml`cvjpiko `cmjk` jk`glmmiilkiko le kcw s~~hy ~vldcgp~jvphypbc vcshp le j hckopby ~cvil` le biob ~vigc+Ell` ~vigc ik 6>:6 jvc cr~cgpc` pl jucvjoc ::~cvgckp hlwcv pbjk 6>::( jsmiko j klvmjh

gvl~ ycjv jk` j ml`cvjpilk ik ckcvoy ~vigc "ccpjfhc Glmm+:)+

Pbcvc jvc flpb s~i`c jk` `lwki`c via pl pbcelvcgjp+ Glkpiksjpilk le ~lhipigjh skvcp ik pbcMi``hc Cjp jk` Klvpb Jevigj glsh` hcj` plesvpbcv ìvs~pilk le s~~hic jk` biobcv lih~vigc ik pbc blvpcv pcvmc~cgijhhy oiuck hlwplga jk` j mjvacp blvp le hiobp,wccp gvs`c+Wpvlko `cmjk` fy Gbikj( ikghsìko elv vc-plgaiko( glsh` acc~ mcpjh ~vigc biobcv pbjk~vldcgpc`( jk` j glkpiksjpilk le s~~hy

glkpvjikp pbjp bj ~hjosc` pbc ik`spvy pbc ~jp`cgj`c glsh` esvpbcv joovjujpc mjvacp+

Oiuck hlw plga hcuch ik lmc jovigshpsvjhmjvacp "c~cgijhhy ovjik)( ~vigc jvc pihhckipiuc pl jùcvc wcjpbcv glkìpilk( ckcvoy~vigc( jk` ~lhigy vcjgpilk+ Mlvclucv( pbcìucvilk le ell` glmmlìpic pl ~vl`sgpilk lefilesch "ip vcjgbc` jhmlp 6 mihhilk fjvvch ~cv`jy gvs`c lih czsiujhckp ik 6>::)( mjac mjvacppiobpcv jk` mlvc ckipiuc pl wcjpbcv jk` ~lhigy

vc~lkc+

@lwki`c via ckpjih mlphy hlwcv `cmjkòvlwpb `sc pl pbc `cpcvilvjpilk le pbc `cfp gvii(c~cgijhhy ie ip cr~jk` pl cmcvoiko glskpvicwbcvc mlp le pbc ovlwpb ik glmmlìpy `cmjkì lggsvviko+ Pbc `lwki`c via j~~hy ìvcgphypl mcpjh jk` ckcvoy( wbigb jvc mlp ckipiuc pl

Ohlfjh Glmmlìpy Mjvacp Lsphlla

Eiosvc Glmm+: Glmmlìpy ~vigc ikìgcw

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka+

3>

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:3>

6>>

63>

Djk->0 Djk->5 Djk->2 Djk-:> Djk-:6

Ckcvoy

Mcpjhw

Jovigshpsvc

$SW klmikjh( 6>>3=:>>


2/15

6


gbjkoc ik ik`spvijh ~vl`sgpilk( jk` ikìvcgphy

pl jovigshpsvc+

Gvs`c Lih

Gvs`c lih ~vigc "_lvh` Fjka jucvjoc) ~cjac`kcjv $:6>,ffh ik J~vih elhhlwiko pbc hl le :+0mf,` le Hifyjk lih cr~lvp+ Pbi iokieigjkphypiobpckc` hiobp,wccp gvs`c mjvacp( ~jvpigshjvhyHZ "RSVWB TABSB ^REA VI ,HCX@U ESROB T@Ulh`+ @ivs~pilk le hiobp gvs`c ~vl`sgpilkchcwbcvcikghsìko lpbcv MCKJ glskpvic(_cp Jevigj jk` pbc Klvpb Wcjhc` pl j `vjw lkikuckplvic le flpb gvs`c jk` ~vl`sgp lspi`c le:VS_A $^BSHE@ IHDRSB %V^^ $_ 67"%U

Dskc mccpiko( lih mikipcv wcvc vchsgpjkp plj`dsp ~vl`sgpilk hcuch lv cuck ìgs blw pl^@KB RW IVS _AB UAVS_I@LL HZ ,HCX@U VR_WR_

Wsfczsckphy( ICJ mcmfcv olucvkmckpvchcjc` 5> mihhilk fjvvch le cmcvockgy plgalucv pbc smmcv( bjhe le wbigb wcvc evlm pbc

S+W+ Wpvjpcoig ^cpvlhcsm Vccvuc+ @sviko pbcelsvpb zsjvpcv( pbc _lvh` Fjka jucvjoc lih ~vigcjucvjoc` j hipphc lucv $:>>,ffh `sc pl wcjackikolih `cmjk`( vcglucvy ik Hifyjk lih ~vl`sgpilk(jk` sv~hs glkìpilk ik pbc S+W+ mi`-glkpikckppbjp jw _PI ~vigc ìucvoc sfpjkpijhhy evlmikpcvkjpilkjhhy pvj`c` gvs`c "flr Glmm+:)+Blwcucv( bciobpckc` ocl~lhipigjh glkgcvkURSSVRZOHZD (S@ZU ZRELB@S WSVDS@ ABLW LHI_~vigc plwjv` ycjv-ck ip jucvjoc` $:>0,ffh ik

@cgcmfcv+

Biob lih ~vigc jk` wcjackiko cglklmig ovlwpbim~jgpc` lih `cmjk` ik 6>::( wipb wlvh`glksm~pilk ovlwpb le dsp >+? mf,` lv >+2

Eiosvc Glmm+6 Lih ~vigcw jk` LCG@ lih wplgaw

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka+

67>>

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63>>

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62>>

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Djk->> Djk->6 Djk->0 Djk->5 Djk->2 Djk-:> Djk-:6

$SW ~cv ffh mihhilk ffh

LCG@ lih ikuckplvicw "viobp jriw)

lih ~vigc

Pjfhc Glmm+: Acy klmikjh jkksjh ~vigc ikìgcwjgpsjh jk` elvcgjwpw "6>>3=:>>)

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka

JGPSJH ELVCGJWP

6>>5 6>>? 6>>2 6>>9 6>:> 6>:: 6>:6 6>:7

Ckcvoy ::2 :7> :27 ::3 :03 :22 :?9 :??

Klk-Ckcvoy :63 :3: :26 :06 :?0 6:> :9> :20

Jovigshpsvc ::6 :73 :?: :09 :?> 6>9 :23 :?3Ell` ::: :79 :25 :35 :?> 6:> :22 :??

Fcucvjocw :>? :60 :36 :3? :26 6>2 :27 :53

Vj Mjpcvijhw ::2 :69 :07 :69 :55 6>? :27 :??

Mcpjhw % Mikcvjhw :30 :25 :2> :6> :2> 6>3 :97 :95

Ecvpihitcvw :>0 :09 799 6>0 :2? 65? 636 670

MSU :>6 :>9 ::? :>9 ::7 :67 ::? ::2

Eiosvc Glmm+7 _lvh` lih cmjk` ovlpb "y-y)

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka+

-0

-6

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6

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Lpbcv Lpbcv Jwij

Gbikj LCG@

mf,`


3/15

7


~cvgckpj hipphc mlvc pbjk lkc-zsjvpcv le pbchjvoc dsm~ ik 6>:> "eiosvc Glmm+7)+ LCG@ lih`cmjk` `cghikc` elv pbc eiepb pimc ik pbc ~jp irycjv( jk` i lk pvjga pl ejhh jojik ik 6>:6+ Klk-LCG@ lih `cmjk` ovlwpb( le :+6 mf,` lv 7~cvgckp( wj `lwk evlm j 6+6 mf,` ghimf ik6>:>+ Elv 6>:6( wlvh` lih `cmjk` i ~vldcgpc` pl

vic fy :+7 mf,` lv 7+5 ~cvgckp( wipb jhh le pbc

ovlwpb ik cmcvoiko mjvacp+

Ik pbc kcjv pcvm( hiobp,wccp gvs`c mjvacp glsh`cjc wipb vcglucvy le lih ~vl`sgpilk ik Hifyj+Elhhlwiko pbc ejhh le Pvi~lhi ik cjvhy Wc~pcmfcv(

,HCX@U Z@_HVZ@LVHL EV^W@ZX@ZO MVHZ_ YBZ_RSB

Flr Glmm+: _PI-Fvckp ~vigc iwhlgjpilk

Ik cjvhy 6>:: pbc ~vigc le _PI "wbigb biplvigjhhy pvj`c` jp j mjhh ~vcmism pl Fvckp elv zsjhipy jk` hlgjpilk vcj-lk) echh fy mlvc pbjk $63,ffh fchlw Fvckp `sc pl j hjvoc fsih`-s~ le gvs`c ik pbc S+W+ mi`-glkpikckp kcjv Gsb-iko Lahjblmjpbc `chiucvy ~likp elv pbc KYMCR _PI espsvc glkpvjgp "flr eiosvc Glmm+:+: jk` Glmm+:+6)+Gvs`c ehlw ikpl pbc vcoilk bjuc ikgvcjc` evlm pbc kcw Acyplkc î~chikc wbigb fviko ovcjpcv ulhsmc evlmGjkj`j jk` evlm vj~i`hy ovlwiko ~vl`sgpilk le hizsi`-vigb bjhc ~vldcgp ik Klvpb @jalpj+ Pbc mi`-glkpikckpjhl lsvgc gvs`c evlm chcwbcvc ik pbc S+W+ j wchh im~lvp pbvlsob pbc Oshe le Mcrigl+ _bihc pbcvc jvc ~hckpy

le l~pilk pl fviko gvs`c ikpl pbc vcoilk( pbcvc jvc ecw pl mluc ip lsp( c~cgijhhy pl Oshe gljp vceikcvic+

Wplga jp Gsbiko vlc ik :Z6>:: fsp pbck `cghikc`( ik ~jvp `sc pl biobcv vceikiko vsk ~vl``c` fy hjvoc mjvoikevlm hlw gvs`c ik~sp ~vigc+ Mjikpckjkgc jp hlgjh vceikcvic wj jhl `cecvvc` pl pjac jùjkpjoc le pbc biob mjv-

oik+ ^vl`sgcv fcojk mluiko gvs`c pl pbc Oshe gljp fy vjih( fjvoc jk` pvsga( j pbc hjvoc _PI-Fvckp ~vigc ~vcj`vck`cvc` sgb mluc ~vleipjfhc+ Lpbcv ~i~chikc ehlw ikpl Gsbiko jhl cjc` sfpjkpijhhy( j ~vl`sgcv lsobp

biobcv ujhsc jhpcvkjpiuc elv pbciv gvs`c+

Ik Klucmfcv( pbc ~vigc ~vcj` kjvvlwc` iokieigjkphy( elhhlwiko jkklskgcmckp le j ~hjkkc` vcucvjh le pbc Wcj-T@XWHWBLHZB_A@_ERSSBZ_LXUAHWUESROBISV^_ABRLIEV@U__V%RUAHZD?ABWHWBLHZBUWSVUWBE_HYBZBTVTZBSUji` pbjp pbcy wihh bi~ >+:3 mf,` pl pbc Oshe ik 6Z6>:6( jk` vjic gj~jgipy pl >+0 mf,` fy cjvhy 6>:7+ Mcjkwbihcpbc S+W+ olucvkmckp `cecvvc` j `cgiilk skpih 6>:7 lk pbc ~vl~lc` >+5 mf,` Acyplkc î~chikc crpckilk( pbjpwlsh` pvjk~lvp Gjkjìjk gvs`c pl pbc S+W+ Oshe( l lwkcv glsh` vc-vlspc pbc ~i~chikc jwjy evlm ckuivlkmck-pjhhy ckipiuc jvcj ik Kcfvjaj+

Pbcvcelvc( _PI i cr~cgpc` pl fc pvjìko jp j itcjfhc ìglskp pl Fvckp skpih j`czsjpc ~i~chikc gj~jgipy i glk-pvsgpc` pl pbc Oshe le Mcrigl( lv evlm Jhfcvpj pl pbc ^jgieig gljp "cr~cgpc` pl fc l~cvjpilkjh ik 6>:?)+ Ik j`ì-pilk( mlvc plvjoc gj~jgipy i glmiko lkhikc( jk` hlwcv kcp ulhsmc ehlwiko ikpl pbc vcoilk jvc hiachy pl vc`sgc

pbc ~vcj`+Mcjkwbihc Fvckp gvs`c ~vigc bjuc vcmjikc` eivm `sc pl pbc piobpkc ik hiobp,wccp mjvacp ik pbc cjpcvk bcmi-~bcvc( pvlko `cmjk` ik Jij( jk` hlw plga+ Fvckp fcgjmc pbc mjik ikpcvkjpilkjh mjvacv gvs`c ik 6>::( jk`~vigc jucvjoc` $:::,ffh ik pbc cglk` bjhe le pbc ycjv+ _PI( hjvochy ìhlgjpc` evlm ikpcvkjpilkjh mjvacp( jucv-joc` dsp $96,ffh+

Flr eiosvc Glmm :+: Gvs`c lih ~vigcw

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka+

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23

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Djk-:> Mjy-:> Wc~-:> Djk-:: Mjy-:: Wc~-:: Djk-:6

Fvckp

@sfji

_PI

$,ffh

Flr eiosvc Glmm :+6 _PI-Fvckp ~vigc ìeecvckpijh

Wlsvgc4 _lvh` Fjka+

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$,ffh


4/15

0


~jvpkcv mluc` zsigahy pl vcplvc lsp~sp ikeich` pbjp wcvc skjeecgpc` fy pbc eiobpiko+^vl`sgpilk i vc~lvpc` pl bjuc vcjgbc` >+9 mf,ìk @cgcmfcvmlvc pbjk bjhe le ~vc-gvii hcuchle :+5 mf,`+ Pbc ICJ cr~cgp pbjp ~vl`sgpilk

wihh eshhy vcglucv fy 6>:0+

Klk-L^CG s~~hy `cuchl~mckp "eiosvcGlmm+0) glkpiksc pl ~cvelvm jfluccr~cgpjpilk `sc pl `lsfhc ìoip ikucpmckpovlwpb jk` hc-piobp glkìpilk elv vio(czsi~mckp jk` cvuigc+ Pbcc jvc fcjvikovcshp( klp lkhy wipb kcw ~vldcgp `cuchl~mckpfsp jhl fy hlwiko pbc `cghikc vjpc ik mjpsvcLCG@ jvcj( sgb j pbc S+W+ jk` Klvpb Wcj+Hjp ycjv jw j ksmfcv le sk~hjkkc` lspjocjk` bcjuicv-pbjk-cr~cgpc` mjikpckjkgc ik pbcKlvpb Wcj pbjp ac~p klk-L^CG ~vl`sgpilk

ovlwpb ejivhy ml`cp+ Blwcucv klk-L^CGlsp~sp "wbigb jgglskp elv 5> ~cvgckp plpjhwlvh` lih s~~hic) i cr~cgpc` pl ikgvcjc fy :mf,` ik 6>:6( jgglvìko pl pbc ICJ( jk` jpieymsgb le pbc ovlwpb ik ohlfjh lih `cmjk`+ PbcSB_RSZVI,HCX@UVHLWSVORE_HVZ^@XZBEBUUH_@_Bjgglmml`jpilk fy lpbcv L^CG mcmfcv placc~ ~vigc evlm ejhhiko iokieigjkphy+ PbiTVRLOHZ_RSZS@HUB67"%UUW@SBE@W@EH_X@_@pimc wbck mlp L^CG glskpvic jvc jhlHZYBU_HZDHZZBTE@W@EH_X(S@PUWSVORE_HVZA@Uvick jfluc 6+? mf,`( `sc pl ikgvcjc` lsp~sp

evlm kcw dlikp uckpsvc ~vldcgp( jk` lih cr~lvpA@YB@LUVSB@EABOZBTAHDAU(S@PUVHLVR_WR_HU

cr~cgpc` pl vcjgb kcjvhy 7+6 mf,` ik 6>:6+

Ik pbc mcìsm pcvm( wlvh` lih `cmjk` icr~cgpc` pl ovlw lkhy ml`cvjpchy( jflsp :+3~cvgckp ~+j+( lwiko pl hlwcv ohlfjh O@^ ovlwpbgls~hc` wipb ceeigickgy im~vlucmckp ikpvjk~lvp jk` lkoliko ceelvp fy olucvkmckpjk` ik`spvy pl vc`sgc gjvflk cmiilk(

~jvpigshjvhy ik biob-ikglmc glskpvic+ J ik pbc~jp( jhh le pbc glksm~pilk ovlwpb i cr~cgpc`pl fc ik cmcvoiko mjvacp "eiosvc Glmm+3)(wipb ml`cp `cghikc ik LCG@ glskpvichjvochy `sc pl cr~cgpc` ceeigickgy

im~vlucmckp+

Lk pbc s~~hy i`c( klk-L^CG glskpvic jvccr~cgpc` pl glkpiksc pl vic ml`cvjpchy pbciv lihs~~hy( ik ~jvp `sc pl biob ~vigc( fsp jhlglkpiksc` pcgbklhloigjh jùjkgc pbjp bjucfvlsobp elvpb kcw s~~hic evlm bjhc `c~lip

jk` `cc~wjpcv leeblvc+ ^vl`sgpilk ikgvcjc jvccr~cgpc` evlm j ksmfcv le jvcj( sgb j Fvjtih(Gjkj`j( pbc Gj~ijk jk` _cp Jevigj+ Pbcc wihhfc leecp fy `cghikc ik evlm lh`cv eich`(c~cgijhhy ik pbc Klvpb Wcj jk` Mcrigl+Ohlfjhhy pbcvc jvc kl vclsvgc glkpvjikp ikplpbc ìpjkp espsvc+ Im~cìmckp jvc mjikhy~lhigy isc( sgb j jggc pl vclsvgc jk`sipjfhc eigjh pcvm jk` glkìpilk elv

ikucpmckp+

Lih ~vigc "_lvh` Fjka jucvjoc) jvc cr~cgpc` pl

`cghikc evlm $:>0,ffh ik 6>:: pl jk cpimjpc`$92,ffh ik 6>:6 jk` ejhh lucv pbc elvcgjp ~cvil``sc pl hlwiko ohlfjh `cmjk`( ovlwiko s~~hy(ceeigickgy im~vlucmckp( jk` sfpipspilk jwjy

Eiosvc Glmm+0 _lvh` lih ~vl`sgpilk

Wlsvgc4 ICJ

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Klk-L^CG

L^CG

Eiosvc Glmm+3 _lvh` lih glkwsm~pilk

Wlsvgc4 ICJ

63

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Klk-LCG@


5/15

3


evlm lih+ Pbc hlko-pcvm lih ~vigc pbjp sk`cv~ikpbcc ~vldcgpilk jvc fjc` lk pbc s~~cv ck` glple `cuchl~iko j`ìpilkjh lih gj~jgipy( klpjfhyevlm lih jk` ik Gjkj`j( jcc` jp $2>,ffh ikglkpjkp 6>:: `lhhjv+ Ip i cr~cgpc` pbjp L^CGwihh ck`cjulv pl himip ~vl`sgpilk pl acc~ ~vigc

vchjpiuchy biob( oiuck pbc hjvoc cr~ckìpsvc kccìk mlp glskpvic+ Blwcucv( pbc lvojkitjpilkwihh jhl fc wjvy le hcppiko ~vigc vic pll biob(bjuiko wipkcc` pbc im~jgp pbi bj bj` lk`cmjk` ik vcgckp ycjv( c~cgijhhy ik LCG@

glskpvic+

Mcpjhw

Mcpjh ~vigc echh evlm pbciv biob ik cjvhy 6>::`sc pl glkgcvk jflsp ohlfjh ovlwpb cmjkjpikoevlm pbc `cfp gvic jk` ~lhigy hlwiko ik Gbikj+

^vigc wcvc pvckopbckiko s~ pl pbc eivp zsjvpcvle 6>:: lk pvlko `cmjk` ik Gbikj "ikghsìkocjvhicv vc-plgaiko)( hlwcv plga( ~vl`sgpilkgspfjga jk` ujvils s~~hy ìvs~pilk+Blwcucv( Gbikj mluc` ikpl `c-plgaiko ml`c@ZOU_VEKUVR_UHOB%AHZ@CBD@Z_VSHUB%AHZ@Umcpjh im~lvp ik pbc eivp bjhe le 6>:: echhbjv~hy( fsp pjvpc` pl ~iga s~ ik pbc cglk` bjhe(c~cgijhhy elv gl~~cv+ _lvh` mcpjhglksm~pilk( wbigb ovcw jp :: ~cvgckp ik 6>:>(hlwc` pl 0 ~cvgckp ik pbc eivp :> mlkpb le6>::( wipb ovlwpb hlwiko bjv~hy ik jhh mjik

vcoilk "wlvh` mcpjh glksm~pilk ovcw 7+2~cvgckp `sviko 6>>>-:>+) Elv Gbikj( blwcucv(pbc `jpj lkhy blw j~~jvckp `cmjk` jk` `l klpikghs`c plga gbjkoc( ikìgjpiko pbjp sk`cvhyikoglksm~pilk mjy bjuc fcck biobcv+ ^vigc wcvcjhl s~~lvpc` fy ksmcvls s~~hy glkpvjikp(klpjfhy elv gl~~cv+ Pbc jhsmiksm mjvacp( wbigbi ik sv~hs( bj` j sfpjkpijh ~lvpilk le plgapic` s~ ik wjvcblsc eikjkgiko `cjh jk`

skjujihjfhc pl pbc mjvacp+

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6/15

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7/15

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8/15

2


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9/15

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15/15

:3


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World Bank Global Economic Outlook January 2012

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Transcript of World Bank Global Economic Outlook January 2012