Work or Play
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Work or PLAY COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org Peter Cochrane
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There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies! Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new. Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
Transcript of Work or Play
Work or
P L AYCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
Peter Cochrane
Management ChallengeSimultaneous change on all fronts!
BYOD
BMOBS u s t a i n a b i l i ty
G re e n Wo r k i n g
Fl ex i bl e
Workforce
A da p
t ab il i t
y
Speed
of Cha
ngeInnovation
Acce
lera
ting
Te
chnolo
gy
Fa i l i n g !Security
Failing IT Depts
Cost
$$
Home
Mob i le
Working
So c i a l Working
Dispersed T e a m s
CLOUDSN e t w o r k s
w i t h o u t
i n f r a s t r u c t u r eA I
M o d e l l i n g
Deci s
i on
S upport
!!Growing Competition Customer Demand Market Erosion New Channels New Entries More for less Gov Regulation New Technology Trade Controls Skill Shortages Market Demands Taxation Limits Staff Movements Management Dwell Times
A PP S
A P I s
Axiomatic changeDriven by technology answering or creating a need !
T e c h n o l o g y
On l y f l ow s i n o n e d i r e c t i o n Ampl i f ies human abi l i t ies
Creates more technology Change s e v e r y t h i n g
Empowe r s s c i e n c e O n l y a c c e l e r a t e s
Suppo r t s s o c i e t i e s Promotes innovat ion
Empower s i nd i v idua l s D imen s i o na l l y e n t rop i c
Bu i l d s o n e l a ye r a t a t ime Favours the adaptive & adventurous
!
I n n o v a t i o n M a r k e t s
Business AND RAPID CHANGEWe now have to accept the counterintuitive !
An understanding of technology is unnecessary
A good manager can manage any business You can buy all the expertise you need
The bottom line is all that matters Customers know what they want
The is always a simple solution +++
Social Nets are a waste of time Spread sheets are sufficient
Computer games are toys Models are unnecessary
Managers know best Twitter is trivial
+++
Many established business wisdoms are wrong:
role reversalThe young are full of tech wisdom and now teach the old !
R&D ⇒ Defence ⇒ Consumer Defence ⇐ Consumer ⇐ R&D
School ⬇ College ⬇ University ⬇ Computing
Computing ⬇ School ⬇ College ⬇ University ⬇ “Specialised”
The world is no longer simpleIt is connected complex and non-linear !
- Social Networking leads to Social Selling - One complaint becomes a global tweet - Knowledge has a shortening half life - Information cannot be contained - Chaos is now the norm
complexityWhat does it mean ?
‘Not simple or obvious’
Resists analysis Resists modelling Denies simplification Unexpected outcomes Unintended consequences No generalised classifications No generalised mathematical theory
No generalised description Mostly counter intuitive
Generally confounding Conditionally difficult No, or, weak axioms
Non commutative
non-linearWhat does it mean ?
Outcome not related to input by scale and may see a different outcome every time even when starting conditions/inputs are the same !How come??- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in start conditions- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in the system state
Small input changes can have a massive impact on the output
non-linearConditionally Stable !
Take your hands and feet off the controls and it will continue
to be stable and fly !
non-linearConditionally Unstable !
Take your hands and feet off the controls and it is immediately out of control and will crash!
non-linearThe likelihood of a Flat Spin (instability)
increases with efficiency !
Natural & man madeComplexity, Non-Linearity, Chaos are the natural order !
everyone is connectedAnd soon so will everything!
A connected worldWhat does this mean ??
The day of the independent variable is over The day of disconnected decisions and effect/s has gone Today unintended consequences rule…and there is no escape Managing without models and sufficient data is very dangerous
Change is no longer slowIt is fast and speeding up !
Seemingly insignificant technologies can change
everything
Change is not a constantIt is exponential !
Over 1000 tweets/second Over 1Bn/month use FaceBook Over 50Bn Google searches/month Top 10 jobs of 2010 did not exist in 2004 25% have been in their current job for <1 year 50% have been in their current job for <5 years School student will have had > 15 jobs by age 35 !
ExponentialWhat does it mean ??
More data/information will be generated this year than in the previous 5000 !…and the year after that …and the year after, after that …and the year after, after, after…
ExponentialWhy it is a big deal !!
Telephone Network Growth ∝ N2
!
Internet Network Growth ∝ 2N
!
Cloud Network Growth ∝ N1/2
Increase nodes 10 fold = Energy Increase
x 100
x 1000
x 3.6
THe Cloud(s)Plural not singular because the internet won’t scale!
V a c u o u s Tr a n s i e n t
M o b i l e Open Closed Visible
Invisible P e r s o n a l
C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t
Lo
cal
, G
lob
al
Pe
op
le, T
hin
gs
Ve
hic
les,
Ho
me
Off
ice
. C
amp
us
To
wn
, C
ity
Re
gio
n,
Co
un
try
Ze
ro I n
f r a s t r uc
t ure
Ne
t s
An
on
ym
i t y W
or k
i ng
Em
be
dd
ed
Se
cu
r i t y
Au
to- Im
mu
ne
Sy
s t em
education through a strawPeople focussed into a corner leading to unemployment!
Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5
In evolutionary stasisPhysics
ART
LAW
BiologyTECH
Maths
Chemistry
Humanities Religion MediaIT
Professions are now multidisciplinary
Education v abilityPaper achievements will be outgunned by a proven abilty!
(rare) Multi-talented & flexibleDoers and the solvers of problems!
HUmans are simple mindedWe cannot cope with or solve the complex!
Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5
In evolutionary stasis
Machines experience no such limitations !
Why do we employ People ?Because they are cheaper than robots !
MATERIALS & processingOrganic + inorganic , printed,
programmed, autonomous
No casting, Pressing, machining> 300 parts are now printed
Complex components (eg gearboxes & manifolds) produced in one pass without assembly using less material whilst returning a superior performance
Shipping designs and not products/goods…. !
Open Access ⇒ Networks ⇒ Software ⇒ Apps ⇒ APIs
⇒ Design ⇒ Printing ⇒ Product Distribution ⇒ ++++
FRont line productionShipping designs and not parts
US Military are ahead of the game
AI - HUMAN Conflict or cooperation ?
IBM WATSONGeneral knowledge
The half life of knowledge: Physics <13 years Medicine < 4 years
Technology <0.7 year Marine Biology < 0.5 year
We need
HELP!
job destructionSweeping away the old
Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services Investment bankers
Agents Drivers
Assistant IT support
Technicians Researcher Train driver Forecasters Receptionist
Stock Trader Tech support
+++++ Warehouse People
job CREATION & ENHANCEMENTBringing in the better and the new
Polymath Fabricator Geneticist Genera l i s t Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programme Complexity analysts
Medics Scientists Engineers Modellers
Designers Detectives
Arch i tects Consu l tants
Technologists Entrepreneurs
++++ Security Experts
BIG/META DATA - BIG RETURNSThe power of analysis & prediction
Who you know and how and why you communicate Who knows you and how and why you communicate What, where , when, why, how you search for What, where, when, why, how they search for What, where , when, why, how you travel What, where, when, why, how they travel What, where, when, why, how you buy What, where, when, why, how they buy What, where, when, why, how you do What, where, when, why, how they do +++ What, where, when, how you live and work What, where, when, how they live and work
healthcare transformedSensor technologies available to all
The S tar Trek ‘Bones’ Medical S c a n n e r i s a f u n c t i o n i n g prototype and not a science project or a dream!
FOOds production transformedRobotic farmers in swarms
A f u n c t i o n i n g prototype today a n d a r e a l i t y tomorrow ?!
future employment/employeesNew modes and different expectations
the rise of the Connected New modes and expectations
Speed of
Change
Adaptability and
FlexibilityNew
Technology Entries
Competition
Growing
Global Market Threat
Ecological Humanitarian
Demands
BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social
Mobility Clouds
BIG Data
is sufficient
No One
security
technique
The concatenation of multiple low cost methods rapidly
delivers a very high level of protection
Habits Personal
Protocols Locations Networks Biometrics Knowledge ++++++++Clouds inherently
more secure than any prior networks
More empowering than
anything we have
had before
THE future is personalPersonal not Corporate Computing
Unacceptable Ineffective and unuseful IT Dept’s
Can they cope with the sophistication of the new threat scenarios ?
Do they have the same ability and resources as Cisco, IBM, Google, Apple et al working together...
securityAre you protected, is your team up to par ?
- Unsure - Unaware - Uninformed - Underpowered - Blissfully ignorant
Pre - occupied by: Office upgrades LAN provision
Old services Operations
+++
securityOr are they in the l itt le league ?
new workforceTech savvy, fully equipped, no respect for IT Depts!
The see social networking is a vital a tool......as their choice of equipment, apps, web sites and ways of working...
...they don’t eMail, they TXT and IM !
...they don’t conceal or hide they share !
new workforceNo loyalty or allegiances , dr iven by pure interest !
T h e y s e e I T a s ‘personal’ and not ‘corporate’ - !
Thinking, working & acting differently...
…creating new fast , innovat ive solutions, groups, and operations...
new workforceWorking on the fly using what they choose!
ManagementRapid change is now the biggest challenge
Management attitudes, working and operational practices, will have to change if companies are
to keep up and compete on the world stage ...
CompaniesThe death of hierarchy !
unchanging
Old organisational
structures work for
situations where
all is known and
In situations of rapid change where flexibility is the hallmark of success, then organisational hierarchies are generally a disaster
Companies The Rise of Autonomy !
Small, specialised, and skil led teams highly focused on
creativity problem solving, getting results fast, to
then reshape and reform to meet the next set of
demands
The Art of War Tsun Zu
…is now more applicable to modern nations than:
The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith
case study: XYZ Company Secur ity market leader
• Open entry - no airlocks • Open plan - no offices • 60% seating provision • Flexible working • Mobile working • Home working • BYOD • BMOB • Virtual PBX • VOIP PBX Client • No wired infrastructure
• Power sockets only • Cloud provision • App freedom • ISP freedom • Open access • Open Apps • Transients • Associates • Part timers • Contractors • Multi Continent • +++ !
THE BIG CHAllengeSOver the next 10 years +
• Fewer Full Time and FTE • Shorter FT dwell times • Shorter project times • Changing processes • New technologies • More competition • More contractors • More transients • More machines • Faster change
What we know for sure....In the next phase the winning companies and countries
will have taken risks, and dared to be different...
...very different...
DEEP(ER) DIVESupporting material on every aspect covered here !
In Depth Slide Sets: http://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane
Published Articles & Papers:http://www.cochrane.org.uk
