Will deforesting Canada cool the...
Transcript of Will deforesting Canada cool the...
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Will deforesting Canada cool the climate?
Alvaro Montenegro
CMOS, May 2012
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Authors Patrick Longobardi Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Institute (CASI), StFX Hugo Beltrami CASI, StFX Gurpreet Matharoo CASI, StFX Michael Eby UVic Quiazhen Mu U. of Montana
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Outline How deforestation impacts climate
High-latitude deforestation impacts from observations
High-latitude deforestation impacts from global climate models
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Deforestation
Carbon emissions to the atmosphere
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Deforestation
Increase in surface albedo
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Deforestation
Increase in surface albedo
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Deforestation
Decrease in evapotranspiration (ET) Reduction in latent heat flux
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Decrease roughness length (RL) Reduction in sensible and latent heat flux
Deforestation
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Changes in cloud cover
Deforestation
Probably only important for large scale change
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Impact of deforestation from global climate models
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Impact of deforestation from global climate models
Warming
Cooling ???
???
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Impact of deforestation from global climate models
Global or whole latitude band land cover change
Most experiments based on:
Historical land use change
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Impact of deforestation from global climate models
Are these results the same when smaller area fractions of the land surface are deforested?
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Deforestation with the UVic Earth System Climate Model
Simulations:
Duration: 2010 to 2200
Forcing: A2 emissions to 2100 then constant
Control - no deforestation
Deforestation – Trees substituted by crops/grasslands in single step at start of 2010
Longobardi et al. submitted
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Deforestation with the UVic Earth System Model
Progressive deforestation fractions from 5% to 100%
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Results UVic – High Latitudes Surface Air Temperature Anomaly
global deforested areas
2100 – 100%
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Impact of deforestation from global climate models
Not all global modelling experiments show cooling for high latitude deforestation
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Historical ALCC with the ECHAM5 ESM
Pongratz et al., GRL, 2011
Net radiative forcing (albedo + CO2)
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Deforestation effects from afforestation simulations
Estimated by inverting effects of afforestation
-1
=
Arora and Montenegro, 2011
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Afforestation with the Canadian Earth System Model
No statistically significant change in surface air temperature due to afforestation at NH high- and mid-latitudes
Arora and Montenegro, 2011
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Impact of deforestation from observations
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cooling from drawdown Total Drawdown - warming from darkening Equivalent Emissions
net cooling Net Drawdown
Afforestation effects from satellite observations
Methods
Montenegro et al., 2009
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Afforestation effects from satellite observations
11
3
Mean Net Drawdown
kg/m2
Results
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Afforestation effects from satellite observations
-1.5
Results
Minimum Net Drawdown 2.5
kg/m2
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Deforestation effects from observations in Québec
Bernier et al, Agric. For. Meteorol., 2011
Albedo and CO2 forcing resulting from forest to lichen woodland conversion
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Deforestation effects from observations in Québec
Bernier et al, Agric. For. Meteorol., 2011
Albedo and CO2 forcing resulting from forest to lichen woodland conversion
CO2
Albedo
Net
40-60% - 0-10%
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Forested non-forested differences from MODIS
Not the effects of deforestation, just present day differences between forested and non-forested areas.
Resolution – 5 km x 5 km Spatial Coverage – Global Temporal Coverage – 2003-2007 average Parameters – Surface temperature (skin temperature)
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Forested non-forested differences from MODIS Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature
North America
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Citizen Alvaro
NO!
Scientist Alvaro
Depending on location and magnitude of deforestation
probably yes …
Will deforesting Canada cool the climate?
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Modelled widespread high-latitude deforestation Global air temperature response: Cooling
Local air temperature response: Cooling
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Conversion of forest to lichen woodlands
Observed net radiative balance indicates cooling
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Deforestation near present agricultural land* Models and observations:
Heterogeneous response
Mean best guess: neutral to small warming
* Deforestation and afforestation studies
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Albedo effects MUST be considered in estimates of the temperature mitigation potential of afforestation.
A plea:
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Results UVic – High Latitudes
Atmospheric CO2 Anomaly
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Deforestation
Atmospheric carbon emissions Soil carbon
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Deforestation effects
Biogeochemical CO2 emissions – warming*
Biogeophysical Albedo Increase – cooling
ET decrease – surface warming
Cloud cover change*
* scale dependent
RL decrease – surface warming
* Potential offset by Soil C?
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Results UVic – High Latitudes
Carbon Budget Anomalies
25% 45%
Global increase in soil carbon after high-latitude deforestation described for the ECHAM5 earth systems model (Bathiany et al., Biogeosciences, 2010).
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Results UVic – High Latitude deforested areas
Soil temperature anomaly P-E anomaly
And higher NPP over many deforested areas.
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Historical ALCC with the ECHAM5 ESM
Radiative forcing from:
Albedo change
CO2 emissions
Net (albedo + CO2)
Pongratz et al., GRL, 2011
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Afforestation effects from observations
Big advantage: spatial resolution closer to scale of LCC
Yah, and they are observations…
X
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Afforestation effects from observations
Disadvantages: Missing parameters Spatial/temporal representativeness No climate feedback
Yah, and they are observations…
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Afforestation effects from satellite observations
Methods
Potential Vegetation 0.08o x 0.08o
Present day vegetation 0.05o x 0.05o
Forests
Crops
Realizable afforestation
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Deforestation effects on local T from observations
Bonan, J. of Climate, 2001
Higher Daily Max T Lower Daily Max T
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Large scale forest to cropland conversion *
Regional air temperature response: Cooling
* mid-latidudes really…
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Forested non-forested differences from MODIS
Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature
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Forested non-forested differences from MODIS
latitude
Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature K
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Forested non-forested differences from UVic
Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature
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Forested non-forested differences from MODIS Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature
North America
MM5 domain
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MODIS x MM5
latitude
Non-forested – Forested Surface Temperature North America
X MODIS O MM5
All data
Lat. mean
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Forested non-forested diff. from MODIS Large variability. On average non-forested warmer up to ~ 50˚ N
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Forested and non-forested temperature differences
Forest Non-forest*
Land Cover
Other
* Grassland and crops
Forest T Non-forest T Other T
Temperature Temp. difference Non-forest T – Forest T
T Diff
Forest H Non-forest T Other H
Elevation
Lapse rate adjustment
~35 km*
~55 km*
* at 50˚N
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Forested non-forested diff. from MODIS Large variability. On average non-forested warmer up to ~ 50˚ N