Will China Democratize?

Waves of Democratization

• ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”

The First Two Waves

• A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926

• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942

• A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964

• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975

The Third Wave

• Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s

• Spread to South America from late 1970s to early 1980s

• Reached Asia in late 1980s

• Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980s

• South Africa 1990

The Third Wave

Causes of Regime Change

CAUSES OF CRISES Structural variables Procedural variables

Internal variables economic development

social cleavages institutions etc.

political leadership strategic efforts etc.

External variables international competition

military threat etc.

foreign policy choice by major states and institutions, etc.

Economic Variable

• Economic development

• dispersion of resources

• economic pluralism

• social pluralism

• political pluralism

Economic Variable

• Economic development

• middle class

• demand for democracy

• elite bargaining

• political accommodation

Economic Variable

• Economic development

• rising expectations

• economic difficulties

• popular discontent

• regime crises

Regime Changes

Non-democracy

Democracy

State Crises

Preservation

Regime Change

Non-democracy

Democracy

China: Favorable Conditions

• Economic development– emergence and growth of new social groups– dispersion of resources to society

• Technological advances

• Ideological decline of Marxism, Leninism, and Mao Zedong Thought

• Influence of Hong Kong and Taiwan

• Influence of Western liberal democracies

Obstacles to Democratization

• Dominant single-party– strategic adjustments– coercive forces

• Liberalization without democratization

• Alliance of authoritarian and business interests

Scenarios of Change

• Preservation of authoritarian regime

• Gradual transition to authoritarian pluralism

• Gradual and moderate liberalization

• Gradual and moderate democratization

• Radical transition toward new authoritarian regime

• Radical transition toward democracy

Patterns of Democratization

• From top down– Conflict of interest– Elite competition– Gradual transition

• From bottom up– Popular demand– Political movement– Radical revolution