Will 3 G Networks Cope 2010
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Transcript of Will 3 G Networks Cope 2010
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U Unwired insighti
Will 3G Networks Cope?
Dr Mark HeathDr Alastair Brydon
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The big questions addressed
? ? ?By how muchwill mobiletraffic increase?
What’s the realcapacity of3G networks?
Will 3G networkscope, and whatcan be done?
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Traffic increasing but future unclear
Large traffic increases reported• AT&T: 5000% data traffic
increase in 3 years• O2: 20× increase in data in
12 months
Unclear future demand & implications• Carphone Warehouse: mobile
broadband has peaked• Cisco: 3.6 billion GBs per month by
2014• Rysavy: demand will outstrip
supply by 2014• Vodafone: no problem to handle
the trafficShort-term symptoms• AT&T: capacity issues in
USA• O2: capacity problems
in LondonCritical to understand:• 3G traffic• 3G capacity• Industry implications
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This is just the beginning!
Increasing usage of 3G devices indoors
Drivers to 3G traffic volumes
Penetration of USB modems/data cards
Penetration of smartphones
Flat-rate bundles, with large usage allowances
Changing service mix, towards traffic-intensive
services
Increasing availabilityof smartphone
applications
3G enhancements
Increasing 3G penetration
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Increasing traffic intensity of services
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3G traffic will increase by a factor of 20
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Real performance of new technology
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Capacity per user will decline as 3G penetration increases
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Some operators will suffer capacity bottlenecks in 2010
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Complementary distribution methods will be essential
Voice and data services
and content
3G macrocellbase stations
Mobile broadcasting
solutions
Indoor systemsSideloading
3G devices
WLAN Femtocells
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More information at www.unwiredinsight.com
• Download our free whitepaper www.unwiredinsight.com/whitepaper.pdf
• The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website.
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Implications for the wireless industry
• Enormous challenges to provide the capacity, coverage and cost base needed - CAPEX per network will increase
• Different network operators in different markets face very different challenges
• Widespread need for spectrum, base stations, LTE, GSM close-down, femtocells, WiFi offloading and sideloading
• Network sharing or consolidation may be the only profitable solution for many
• Massive networks provide opportunity for equipment vendors, but consolidation will require them to pick the winning operators
• Femtocells/WiFi offload open the door to new competitors for equipment vendors
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Unwired insightUi www.unwiredinsight.com
More information on www.unwiredinsight.com
• Download our free whitepaper www.unwiredinsight.com/whitepaper.pdf
• The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website.