Why we failed to survive ??

LOST AT SEA

Table of Contents

• The Scenario• Individual Analysis• What went wrong?• Perception Bias• Initial Deviation• Grid Analysis• Kepner-Tregoe Matrix• OODA loops• Group strengths• What we learnt

Scenario!

Where do we stand?

Individual Score

Aakash 63

Devarsh 70

Utsav 70

Sayali 83

Raunak 88

GROUP SCORE 86

Effects of Individuals on the group

• The approach of all the members was not in sync with the expert (US Army)

• Expert was less influential during the group discussion

What went wrong?• We did not recognise the expert in the group

• We did not identify the utility of each item

• We invested a majority of the time in finding the first 7 items

• Not much thought process was given on the last 5 items

• Assumptions made were too vague and different from the actual solution

• Individual deviation affecting the group

Items Aakash Devarsh Utsav Sayali Raunak Group

Shaving mirror

2 gallon can of Oil gas mixture ?

5 gallon can of water

1 case of US Army C Rations ?

20 square feet of opaque plastic ?

2 boxes of Chocolate bar

Fishing Kit

15 feet of Nylon rope ?

Seat Cushion

Shark repellent ?

RUM ?

Small transistor radio

Maps of the pacific ocean

Mosquito netting

Sextant

Initial Deviation: 42%

• Total deviation of about 86 points.

• The initial assumptions which we made were wrong

• Expert deviation:19 and Group deviation:36

• Excessive discussion

• Initial Deviation affecting the rest

What we did?

Used Grid Analysis

Weighed each and every option with every option available

Too many options and comparisons to analyse

Complex to comprehend and keep a track of all the analysis made

Time consuming

Kepner-Tregoe Matrix: How we could have used it?

4 Steps

Situation Appraisal: Outline the priorities

Problem Analysis: Evaluating the causes

Decision Analysis: Evaluation of alternatives

Potential Problem Analysis: Evaluate Final decision

Kepner-Tregoe Matrix: How we could have used it?

• Prepare the decision statement: Prioritize the items required initially.

• Identify the “must haves”: identify initial rescue items

• Identify “want to haves”: Rank alternatives according to importance

• Identify the restraints: Consider the limitations of each

• Assign a relative score for each alternative

• Analyse the score and make a final decision.

Another alternative!

OODA LOOPS

1. Observe: Understand the options and items available

2. Orient: Prioritize the items and analyse the utility of each item

3. Decide: Decide the order of items to be taken

4. Act: Implement the decision taken and adhere to it

Group Strengths!

• Every individuals opinion was taken into consideration

• Tried Moving in a methodological order – Safety, Survival & Rescue

What we learnt?

• Use an appropriate model of Decision Making

• Think out of the box

• Analysing and identifying the utility of all items

• Identifying the expert and leveraging on his thoughts