Why People vote

Group factors and Issues

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

REGIONIt is not what it used to be

The Solid South

• A key component of the Roosevelt coalition– 11 states of the Confederacy Provided• 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916• 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932• 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960• 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976

– Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates

Why the South Used to be more important

• Shared the characteristics of an important group– Large– Reliable

• The GOP Southern Strategy changes this

The Shift in the South

• 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008

– The GOP needs it, the Dems can win without it

• Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from 1948-2008 won election

• Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)

Why Region is not as Important

• Mobility

• National exposure of the Media

• Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote

Region in 2008

Cities and Suburbs

• Urban areas and Rural Areas

• America is becoming less rural

• Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs

Where We live

Gender and Marriage

• The Gender Gap

• Why?

Gender in 2008

Marriage

• Married People vote Republican

• Singles vote Democratic

Marital Status

Decline of Security Moms

Issue voting in 2008

Only 1 issue really mattered

Issue voting

• Can be very difficult

• Candidates try to avoid taking issue stands

• Economic issues are easy to vote upon

Most Important Issues

The Economy

• The events of 9/14

Economics

• Retrospective voting

• Prospective voting

Economics

Economics

Economics

Retrospective voting on Bush

• Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush

• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

The Third Term

The War in Iraq

• No longer the salient Issue of the election

• Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds

• Obama could claim opposition from day 1

Iraq

Health Care

• Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)

• People are worried, but don’t specify policy

Energy Policy

• One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin

• Never panned out as an issue

• Cheap oil throughout the fall

Drilling

Terrorism

• The only Issue where McCain beats Obama

• The problem for McCain is that no one cared

Terrorism

Immigration

• No One cared

• Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue