why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era

7/30/2019 why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era

1/50

TheDeathOfThePCNicholasCarlson

DeputyEditor,BusinessInsider


2/50

TheiPhoneissixyearsold,andtheiPad,three.


3/50

TheInternethasmadethe

desktopOSirrelevant


4/50

IsthePCDeadyet?


5/50

Letslookatsales


6/50

PCsaleshavebeenflatsince2009

HP#

Lenovo#

Dell#

Acer#

Apple#

Other#

0"

10,000"

20,000"

30,000"

40,000"

50,000"

60,000"

70,000"

80,000"

90,000"

100,000"

1Q08" 2Q08" 3Q08" 4Q08" 1Q09" 2Q09" 3Q09" 4Q09" 1Q10" 2Q10" 3Q10" 4Q10" 1Q11" 2Q11" 3Q11" 4Q11" 1Q12" 2Q12" 3Q12"

Global#PC#Shipments#By#Manufacturer#

Source:(Gartner,(IDC(

iPad"released"


7/50

SmartphonesalesarebiggerthanPCsales

Personal)Computers)

Smartphones)

Tablets)

)3))))

)100,000,000))

)200,000,000))

)00,000,000))

)400,000,000))

)500,000,000))

)600,000,000))

)700,000,000))

)800,000,000))

)900,000,000))

)1,000,000,000))

2000) 2001) 2002) 200) 2004) 2005) 2006) 2007) 2008) 2009) 2010) 2011)

Units)

Global)Internet)Device)Sales)

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(


8/50

Growthincomputersalesiscomingfromtablets

PCs$

Tablets$

0"

20,000"

40,000"

60,000"

80,000"

100,000"

120,000"

140,000"

1Q08"2Q08"3Q08"4Q08"1Q09"2Q09"3Q09"4Q09"1Q10"2Q10"3Q10"4Q10"1Q11"2Q11"3Q11"4Q11"1Q12"2Q12"3Q12"

(thousands)

Global$Computer$Shipments$

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs(company(releases(


9/50

PeoplebuymorethanoneiPadperhousehold

HowManyiPadsAreInYourHousehold?


10/50

Addthesalesup,andyougetthecollapseofMicrosoft/Intel

ShareofPersonalComputingPlatforms


11/50

Consumersaregoingto

buymoretabletsandfewerPCs


12/50

Moreadultswanttobuyatabletthanacomputerthisyear

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

iPadand/ornon-AppleTablet Computer

Whatpeopleover13wanttobuyinthenext6months

Source:EstimatesbasedonNielsendata


13/50

Thetrendspikeshigheramongkids

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

iPadand/ornon-AppleTablet Computer

Whatkidswanttobuyinthenext6months

Source:EstimatesbasedonNielsendata


14/50

Amajorityspend2+hoursontabletseveryday

Source:BusinessInsidersurvey

OnAverage,HowManyHoursDoYouUseYouriPad?


15/50

Tabletsaleswillpassnotebooksalesthisyear

Source:NPD


16/50

PeoplewhoalreadyowniPadsareusingthemMOREastimegoesby

Source:BusinessInsider/SurveyMonkey

HasYouriPadUsageIncreasedOrDecreasedSinceYourInitialExperimentalPeriod?


17/50

Thisusageshiftisshowingupinecommerce

PC#

Smartphone#

Tablet#

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#

Ecommerce#Website#Traffic#By#Device#

Source:(Monetate(

i d ill b ll i i


18/50

By2015,FixedPCswillbeasmallminorityofInternetconnecteddevices

Fixed& Fixed&Fixed&

Mobile&

Mobile&

0&

500&

1,000&

1,500&

2,000&

2,500&

3,000&

2005& 2010& 2015&

Consumer&

Broadband&

Connec:ons&

(milions)&

G>20&Internet&Access&

Source:(Boston(Consul/ng(Group,(Mary(Meeker,(Kleiner(Perkins,(Morgan(Stanley(Research,(Berg(Insight(


19/50

SoisthePCdead?


20/50

Nope.


21/50

Atruerstatementis:

ThehomePCisdead


22/50

Mostly,peopleusetheirtabletsathome

Source:Comscore

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Home PublicLocation Work Other

Wheredoyouuseatablet?


23/50

Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011

andtraditionalcomputersatwork

ShareOfDevicePageTrafficOverADay:


24/50

Peoplespendalotoftime

atwork


25/50

SotheanswerisNO,the

PCisntdying


26/50

theHOMEPCisdying.


27/50

Whoarethepost-PC

winners?


28/50

StartwithApple


29/50

iOSiscrushingWindows

Source:Companyreleases

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

AxisTitle

iOSDevicevs.WindowsRevenue

WindowsDivisionRevenue

iOSDeviceRevenue


30/50

iPhoneisbeatingWindowsbyitself


$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

AxisTitle

iPhonevs.WindowsRevenue


iPhoneRevenue


31/50

iPadisbeatingWindows,too


$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

AxisTitle

iPadvs.WindowsRevenue


iPhoneRevenue


32/50

iPadrevenueswillsooneclipseDellrevenues

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

AxisTitle

DellProductvs.iPadRevenue

DellProductRevenue

iPadRevenue



33/50

Meanwhile,Applestockhasbeenonatear

Dell

Apple

MicrosoftHP

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1/1/07

4/1/07

7/1/07

10/1/07

1/1/08

4/1/08

7/1/08

10/1/08

1/1/09

4/1/09

7/1/09

10/1/09

1/1/10

4/1/10

7/1/10

10/1/10

1/1/11

4/1/11

7/1/11

10/1/11

1/1/12

4/1/12

7/1/12

10/1/12

AAPLvs.DELLvs.HPQvs.MSFTStockPerformance

Source:YahooFinance


34/50

Googleisalsothriving

post-PC

G l DOMINATES t PC ti


35/50

GoogleDOMINATESpost-PCoperatingsystemmarketshare

Android'

Apple'

Blackberry'

Windows'

Other'

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q1#2009# Q2#2009# Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#

Global'Mobile'Pla:orm'Market'Share'

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates,(and(company(filings#


36/50

Googleownspost-PCsearch

Google&

Yahoo!&bing&

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Dec#

08#

Mar#

09#

Jun#

09#

Sep#

09#

Dec#

09#

Mar#

10#

Jun#

10#

Sep#

10#

Dec#

10#

Mar#

11#

Jun#

11#

Sep#

11#

Dec#

11#

Mar#

12#

Jun#

12##

Sep#

12#

Global&Mobile&Search&Market&Share&

Source:(Global(StatCounter(


37/50

Googletakesmostofthepost-PCadrevenues

Google&

Millennial&Media&

Pandora&

Apple&Yahoo&

Microso4&Other&

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

1Q09# 2Q09# 3Q09# 4Q09# 1Q10# 2Q10# 3Q10# 4Q10# 1Q11# 2Q11# 3Q11# 4Q11#

Mobile&Ad&Market&Share&

Source:(news(reports,(company(releases,(BII(es5mates(


38/50

Samsungisalsowinning

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

SamsungStockPerformance

Source:YahooFinance


39/50

Sofar,Facebookissurvivingthetransition

TotalUsers

MobileUsers

Mobile-only0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q09 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

(millions)

FacebookMonthlyActiveUsers



40/50

iOSappdevelopersareindemand

0"

5,000,000,000"

10,000,000,000"

15,000,000,000"

20,000,000,000"

25,000,000,000"

30,000,000,000"

35,000,000,000"

40,000,000,000"

45,000,000,000"

50,000,000,000"

55,000,000,000"

60,000,000,000"

65,000,000,000"

1/1/11"

2/1/11"

3/1/11"

4/1/11"

5/1/11"

6/1/11"

7/1/11"

8/1/11"

9/1/11"

10/1/11"

11/1/11"

12/1/11"

1/1/12"

2/1/12"

3/1/12"

4/1/12"

5/1/12"

6/1/12"

7/1/12"

8/1/12"

9/1/12"

10/1/12"

11/1/12"

12/1/12"

1/1/13"

2/1/13"

3/1/13"

4/1/13"

5/1/13"

6/1/13"

Apple%App%Store%Downloads%


(iOS developers makemore more money


41/50

(iOSdevelopersmakemoremoremoneythanAndroiddevelopers)

Apple%iOS%

Android%%

Other%

$0#

$500#

$1,000#

$1,500#

$2,000#

$2,500#

$3,000#

$3,500#

$4,000#

2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(millions)

Mobile%App%Revenue%By%Pla


42/50

Noteveryoneisfaringso

well


43/50

Somecompanieshavenotbeenabletogrowtheirpost-homePCaudiencesatall

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

120%140%160%180%

PercentageGainInAudienceThanksToMobile-OnlyUniques

Pandora

Gannett

Wal-Mart

LinkedIn

Craigslist

DemandMedia

VEVO

Microsoft

Source:Comscore


44/50

YahooisdependentonthePC-basedWeb,anditsusageisshrinking

0%#

2%#

4%#

6%#

8%#

10%#

12%#

14%#

16%#

1Q07#2Q07#3Q07#04Q7#1Q08#2Q08#3Q08#4Q08#1Q09#2Q09#3Q09#4Q09#1Q10#2Q10#3Q10#4Q10#1Q11#2Q11#3Q11#4Q11#1Q12#

Yahoo%Time%Spent%%vs.%Total%Internet%(U.S.)%

Source:(comScore,(Ci-(Investment(Research(And(Analysis(


45/50

Websiteswillgoawayin

favorofapps?


46/50

Nope.


47/50

RememberPeoplestill

usePCsatwork.

And when theyre using their tablets at home


48/50

Andwhenthey reusingtheirtabletsathome,peoplestillliketobrowsetheWeb

Source:BusinessInsidersurvey

Whenyoureadnews/informationonaTABLET,

whichofthefollowingdoyoudoregularly?


49/50

Thanksforreading.


50/50

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