WHITHER…..?

Dai Davies : General Manager : DANTE Ltd

dai.davies@dante.org.uk

www.dante.net

SERENATE Final WorkshopBad Nauheim 16 June 2003

Table 1 Technology Available 1991-2002

Period Most performant DataLink technologyavailable

Technology availablein pan-Europeannetwork

Technology availablein United Statesnetwork

1991 - 1995 34/45 Mbps PDH 2 Mbps PDH 45 Mbps PDH1996 - 1997 155 Mbps SDH 45 Mbps PDH 155 Mbps SDH1997 - 2000 622 Mbps SDH 155 Mbps SDH 622 Mbps SDH2000 + 10 Gbps DWDM 10 Gbps DWDM 2.5 Gbps DWDM

Evolution of Market Competitiveness : International Intra-European Connectivity

200,000 150,000

30,00012,500

5,000

200,000100,000

20,000

2,000

36

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1996 1997 1998-99 1999-2000

2000-2001

Period covered

Eur

o / M

bps

/ Yea

r

average offer price

lowest offer price

•European Capacity 146 Gbps•Global Connectivity 7.5 Gbps•Europe Capacity 2003

– 140 Gbps Wavelength– 6 Gbps SDH

•European Cost– 14 M Euro Wavelength– 16 M Euro SDH

GÉANT Facts and Figures

Price trends pan-European connectivity

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1996 1997 1998-9 1999-2000 2000-01 2002

average offer price

lowest offer price

Price trends extrapolation

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1996 1997 1998-9 1999-2000 2000-01 2002 2004 estimate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Range Connectivity cost Range GEANT Subscription Mean Connectivity cost Range Mean GEANT Subscription Range

Series1

1

10

100

Range Connectivity cost Range GEANT Subscription Mean Connectivity cost Range Mean GEANT Subscription Range

Series1

Development of Cost Sharing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Range Access price Range Connectivity Cost Connectivity/access

1996

1999

2002

•Spare Capacity– 140 Gbps Trunk– 50 Gbps Access

•Other Costs = 10 M Euro•Better Quality Access

– Dual Connection– Redundant Capacity

•Geographic Dependency 40%

Reasons for Smoothing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

250 400 550 700 850 1000 1150 1300 1450 1600 1750 1900 2050

Length of Span

One lambda

two lambdas

three lambdas

•Aggregate Growth

•New Applications

•Projects

Future Demand

•Very Large Bandwidth

•Limited Set of Locations

•Specific (well articulated?) Needs

Are Projects Different?

Support for European VLBI

Radio Telescope

Correlator

Data Flows(RT or non-RT)

EVN Traffic Flows over GÉANT

UK

SE

FR

NLBE

DE1

DE2

CZ

PL

CH

IT

AT

SURFnet

JANET

GARR

PSNC

DFN

NORDUnet

2.5G10G

256M 512M ?1G

JIVE

•Local Access

•Economics

•Technology

•Security

Project Issues

•Shared Costs Already Funded

•Marginal Connectivity Costs

•Who Pays

Project Pricing

•GÉANT Subscription

– Price for Global Service

– Average Cost Model

– Smoothes Differences

•Project Perception

– What Might it Cost Me

Project Economics

•40 Gbps Technology Cost

•Multiple 2.5 Gbps

•Interfacing Costs

– Routers

– Switches

Is Speed Everything?

• Technical

– Architecture

– Technology

•Commercial

•User

Whither...? - The Challenges