WHERE IS

THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON

SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY?

CAN THIS BE THE NEW

GENERATION?!

WOUT ULTEE

RADBOUD UNIVERSITY

NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS

COURSE PARADIGMS AND

PROBLEM SHIFTS IN

SOCIOLOGY

UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA

TENTH AND LAST MEETING

JANUARY 20, 2013

I HAVE BEEN ACTIVE IN RESEARCH COMMITTEE 28 ON STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY OF THE

INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION

WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MET NEWCOMERS,

THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN WAS THAT ONE RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28

I HAVE SOMETIMES REPLIED AS FOLLOWS:

I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS

WRONG:

LATER RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER GENERATIONS POSED ISSUES POORLY

AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME

I CAME TO DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO GENERATIONS

FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A

BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST

AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE RESEARCH OF THE OLDER

GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED, BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN

MY CRITICAL

LEARNING PERIOD IN

RC28 SOCIOLOGY INCLUDED

THE COVER OF A NOW DEFUNCT BRITISH WEEKLY

THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF

GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITY AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH &

RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN

SOCIAL MOBILITY

NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS SHIFT FROM THE GLASS

GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION

THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS

LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS

THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS,

AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER:

FIRST GENERATION

SECOND GENERATION

THIRD GENERATION

FOURTH GENERATION

FIFTH GENERATION

LIPSET 1956

DUNCAN 1967

GOLDTHORPE 1978

BLOSSFELD 1986

???

PERCENTAGES

LINEAR REGRESSION

ODDS RATIO’S

EVENT HISTORY MODELS

???

FIFTH GENERATION

???

FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING

FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC

REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING

HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS IS NO BIG THING

IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES IS NO BIG THING

GENERATIONS ARE NOT MARKED BY NEW METHODS

THE NEW GENERATION IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES

ANNOUNCES LOUDLY

THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS OF THE OLD GENERATION POSE THE ISSUE POORLY

THE OLD GENERATION USED METHODS THAT INCORPORATE

HYPOTHESES THAT ARE PRECISELY AT ISSUE

LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS

WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING?

THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY

IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING

EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE,

THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE

DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT ‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’

THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN

AND DESTINATION

OF COURSE, IN FRANCE THE RELATION BETWEEN ORIGIN

AND DESTINATION

MEASURED BY A CORRELATION OR BY ODDS RATIO’S

MAY HAVE BECOME WEAKER TOO

BUT IS THIS SOMETHING TO DEPLORE POLITICALLY?

THERE MAY BE TWO PROCESSES BEHIND A LOWER ASSOCIATION

FIRST, THAT PEOPLE FROM LOW ORIGIN WHO ATTAINED A DIPLOMA

NOWADAYS DO LESS WELL

SECOND, THAT PEOPLE FROM HIGH ORIGIN WHO DID NOT ATTAIN A HIGH

DIPLOMA ONCE DID WELL, BUT NOWADAYS WIND UP LOWER

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A

LADDER

BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER

SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3

WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION

BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS UNIFORM

YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2

THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3

THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS

BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME

TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN

TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL INVESTIGATED PERSONS

HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A

RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S POPULATION

THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE

THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE CURRENT JOB OF ALL THE MEMBERS OF ONE

SOCIETY AT ONE POINT IN TIME

HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35, ‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN

IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK

BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION: THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN

COHORTS

TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY

WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY

THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT

THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRAJECTORIES ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT AGE-, COHORT

AND PERIOD EFFECTS

THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS

IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING:

IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH

SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS

HIGHER FIRST JOB?

THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN

DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE

LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28

SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS

WHO DECLARE THE QUESTIONS OF OLDER GENERATIONS WRONG

BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW

MEMBERS OF OLDER GENERATIONS SAY THAT

QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS ARE WRONG

FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF FIRST GENERATION TO THE EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD

GENERATION

RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT MEN ONLY

ARE THESE GAPS BEING FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT

WOMEN?

DO THESE QUESTIONS ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF

OLDER GENERATIONS?

THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY

IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED,

QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE

MISGUIDED TOO

THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG, DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME OF

THE COUPLE

ANNEMETTE SORENSEN & SARAH MCLANAHAN

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY I987

IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS

SO AS NOT TO JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF DEPENDENCY:

1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME?

2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE

EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND?

3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE

EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE?

4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER

EFFECTS?

THE ISSUE OF THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR HUSBAND DOES SO

ARE MISGUIDED

THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY BOTH HAVE A POLLUTION PHOBIA

THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS:

1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES POSITIVELY RELATED?

2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES?

3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO

ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?

WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!

THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING

MOBILITY QUESTIONS

THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH

THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST

OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES

HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXIST SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES

WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER

THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE EUROPEAN WING OF RC28

CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES

BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES

THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT

RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES

I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER

A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN:

1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN?

2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES

AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT

THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE EXPERIENCE)?

3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?

AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION, RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS

THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION

- DISCRIMINATION BY MEN

IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND

WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER

SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE:

4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER

THEN MEN?

EVEN MORE TO THE POINT:

5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?

THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009

GENDER OF SUPERVISOR

MALE FEMALE

88 % 12 %

56 % 44 %

THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE:

5.8

GENDER OF MALE

EMPLOYED

PERSON FEMALE

THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF

A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE

FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE

INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY

FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING

(HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED?

DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA?

RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR MICRO CLASS MOBILITY,

SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?

THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS

REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2

AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY

DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR

FOUR THREE DECADES

AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN

GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS

TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975 RISE BECAUSE OF

1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS?

3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE MOTHERS?

4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS?

5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?

6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES?

7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS?

8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

BETTER CANDIDATES FOR FIFTH GENERATION RESEARCH?

ROBERT MARE’S PLEA IN DEMOGRAPHY OF 2011 FOR A SHIFT

FROM THE TWO-GENERATION MODELS OF ALL PREVIOUS GENERATIONS TO

THREE GENERATION MODELS

I POSIT AS A WEAK ALTERNATIVE A SHIFT FROM ONE-PARENT TO TWO-

PARENTS MODELS

I HAVE HEARD IT SAID THAT THREE GENERATION QUESTIONS ARE SUPERFLUOUS:

HOW CAN THE THIRD GENERATION HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE? ANY INFLUENCE MUST BE

INDIRECT!

I HAVE HEARD IT SAID THAT THREE GENERATION QUESTIONS CAPITALIZE ON

MEASUREMENT ERROR:

IF FATHER’S JOB LEVEL IS MEASURED WITH ERROR, WHICH IT ALWAYS IS, THE

MEASUREMENT ERROR SHOWS UP AS AN EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S JOB LEVEL

I HAVE HEARD IT SAY THAT ONE OF MARE’S ARGUMENTS AGAINST TWO-GENERATION

MODELS IS NOT RIGHT

MARE HOLDS THAT THE MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION FOR FATHER’S JOB OR

EDUCATION IN A SQUARE MOBILITY TABLE

DOES NOT PERTAIN TO ALL MEN LIVING AT ONE POINT IN TIME

AND THAT FATHERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IF THEIR NUMBER OF

CHILDREN WAS HIGHER

EARLIER GENERATIONS SURELY INTERPRETED FATHERS’ MARGINAL IN THIS WRONG WAY

I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS EASY TO DEAL WITH THE

OVERREPRESENTATION OF MEN WITH MORE CHILDREN:

ENTER THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN INTO THE REGRESSION MODEL

AND I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS A GOOD THING THAT MEN WITHOUT

CHILDREN DROP OUT

DUNCAN ALREADY SAID THAT THERE ARE WRONG INTERPRETATIONS OF

MARGINAL FOR FATHERS IN A MOBILITY TABLE

BUT HE CAME UP WITH A GOOD ONE AND GOLDTHORPE WITH AN EVEN

BETTER ONE

SONS COMPETE ON THE BASIS OF RESOURCES FOR BETTER JOBS

AND ONE OF THEIR RESOURCES, NEXT TO EDUCATION, IS THEIR FATHER’S JOB LEVEL OR HIS

EDUCATION

IT IS GOOD THAT MEN WITHOUT CHILDREN DROP FROM THE

SAMPLE,

PRECISELY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CHILDREN

THEIR RESOURCES ARE WASTED SINCE THEY DO NOT HAVE

CHILDREN WHO COMPETE FOR BETTER JOBS

IT MAY BE EASY TO EXPLAIN A BIVARIATE RELATION BETWEEN

GRANDFATHER’S AND SON’S JOB LEVEL,

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THIS EXPLANATION FULLY WORKS

JUST AS IT WAS POSSIBLE TO ACCOUNT FULLY FOR DOUBLE

(UN)EMPLOYMENT IN COUPLES BY EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND THE

EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON (UN)EMPLOYMENT

SO, LET US GIVE THREE GENERATION STUDIES SOME CREDIT

AND LET US WAIT UNTIL WE HAVE RESULTS

BEFORE WE HERALD IT AS THE NEXT GENERATION OF RESEARCH

THE FIFTH GENERATION (SEEMINGLY) DESCRIPTIVE

QUESTION:

IS SON’S JOB (OR EDUCATION?) NOT ONLY HIGHER IF HIS FATHER HAD A HIGHER JOB (EDUCATION?)

TOO,

BUT ALSO IF, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, HIS GRANDFATHER HAD A

HIGHER JOB (EDUCATION?) TOO?

THIS QUESTION BECOMES A QUESTION LOADED WITH MORE

THEORETICAL IMPORT

WHEN VIEWED AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF THREE MAJOR SOCIOLOGICAL PUBLICATIONS

FROM 1980

1980: GOLDTHORPE

CLASS STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN

BRITAIN

1980: COLLINS

THE CREDENTIAL SOCIETY

1979: BOURDIEU

LA DISTINCTION

GOIN’ BACK QUESTION:

IS BRITAIN STILL A CLASS SOCIETY?

WHAT’S IT GONNA BE QUESTION:

WILL CREDENTIALS BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY

DEVELOPED SOCIETIES LIKE THE USA?

SHIFTING MECHANISMS QUESTION:

LESS REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY BY THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES?

MORE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH THE TRANSMISSION OF CULTURAL RESOURCES?

AND MORE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH AN INCREASE IN EDUCATIONAL

HOMOGAMY?

IF TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES,

AS INDICATED BY FATHER-SON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY,

ARE LESS AND LESS CLASS SOCIETIES

AND MORE AND MORE CREDENTIAL SOCIETIES

THEN

THE QUESTION OF CREDENTIAL MOBILITY GAINS THE UPPERHAND OVER THE QUESTION OF CLASS MOBILITY OR

PRESTIGE MOBILITY

BREAKING DOWN THE QUESTION OF INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY

INTO THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLASS ORIGINGS ON EDUCATION

AND THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CLASS DESTINATION

DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH:

INTERGENERATIONAL CREDENTIAL MOBILITY IS INTERESTING IN ITSELF

MULTIVARIATE MODELS HIGHLIGHT DIRECT (NET) EFFECTS, WHEREAS TOTAL EFFECTS ARE MORE

IMPORTANT

AND SINCE MODELS OFTEN ARE NOT RECURSIVE, INDIRECT EFFECTS REMAIN UNDERSTUDIED

THE TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT:

WHEREAS THE QUESTION OF SOCIAL ORIGIN AND EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT

IS ABOUT FAMILIES AND STATES

THE QUESTION ABOUT EDUCATION AND DESTINATION

IS ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE

AND ABOUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICALLY DRIVEN CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURES

BY DONATING AND BEQUESTING WEALTH TO THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS ONCE REPRODUCED CLASS INEQUALITY

BY SPENDING TIME AND DOING THINGS WITH THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS NOWADAYS REPRODUCE CREDENTIAL INEQUALITY

SINCE PARENTS NOWADAYS LIVE LONGER, THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES IS

DELAYED

WHEREAS MORE CULTURAL RESOURCES ARE BEING TRANSMITTED

OUR OWN HYPOTHESIS, RENDERING THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS

INTERESTING:

THE INCREASE IN LONGEVITY IS SO STRONG

THAT NOT ONLY THE LIFE SPAN OF PARENTS AND CHILDREN OVERLAP MORE

THE LIFE SPAN OF THESE CHILDREN AND THE LIFE SPAN OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS ALSO OVERLAP MORE

IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETIES THERE WILL BE A STRONGER DIRECT EFFECT OF THE EDUCATION OF

GRANDPARENTS (FIRST GENERATION) ON EDUCATION IN THE THIRD GENERATION (CHILDREN)

FIRSTGENERATION

SECOND GENERATION

THIRD GENERATION

1946 - ?? 1976

1907 - 1979 1910 - 1983

1937

1862 – 1950 1947

1880 - 1960 1955

FOR CHILDREN TO BE BORN, A MOTHER AND A FATHER ARE NECESSARY

THEREFORE INTERGENERATIONAL QUESTIONS AS FATHER-SON QUESTIONS

MAY BE OFF THE MARK

CREDENTIALS IN THE THIRD GENERATION DEPEND UPON CREDENTIALS OF MOTHERS

AND FATHERS IN THE SECOND GENERATION

THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF A SECOND GENERATION HUSBAND, THE

HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE

NET OF THIS, THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE ALSO MAY BE HIGHER IF HIS FATHER

(FIRST GENERATION) HAS HIGHER CREDENTIALS TOO

FIRST

SECOND

THIRD

SPOUSE SECOND

???

???

SO, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF CREDENTIALS IN THE FIRST

GENERATION ON THE CREDENTIALS OF THE THIRD GENERATION MAY

CONSIST OF

1) A DIRECT EFFECT PLUS

2) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION PLUS

3) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE

IF NO DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION IS

FOUND,

THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO TOTAL EFFECT OF THE FIRST

ON THE THIRD GENERATION

THE SECOND ??? IS A !!!FOR THE NETHERLANDS WE HAVE INDEED

FOUND THAT A MAN (WOMAN) HAS A SPOUSE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF

EDUCATION

IF THAT PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION

AND, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, IF THE FATHER OF THIS PERSON HAS A HIGHER

LEVEL OF EDUCATION

SEE DE GRAAF, SMEENK, ULTEE & TIMM, THE WHEN AND WHOM OF FIRST MARRIAGE IN THE NETHERLANDS

IN (EDITORS) BLOSSFELD & TIMM, WHO MARRIES WHOM?, 2003

THE FINDINGS WERE MADE BY COMBINING TWO SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN 1992

AND 1998

WARREN & HAUSER 1997 DID NOT FIND A DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD

GENERATION FOR PERSONS LEAVING HIGH SCHOOL IN 1957 IN WISCONSIN, USA

EROLA & MOISIO 2007 FOUND ALMOST NO DIRECT OF GRANDPARENTS’ CLASS ON CHILDREN’S

CLASS FOR FINLAND 1950-2000

CHAN IN 2011 AT THE SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN ESSEX AND THE SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN

HONG KONG

PRESENTED FINDINGS ON THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOWING THAT

FIRST GENERATION CLASS HAS A DIRECT EFFECT ON THIRD GENERATION CLASS, NET OF SECOND

GENERATION CLASS AND EDUCATION

(IN SAMPLES OF SOME 2,000, 6,000 AND 4,000 THIRD GENERATION PERSONS)

AT THE SUMMER 2011 MEETING OF RC28 IN IOWA CITY, USA

MARE PLEADED IN FAVOR OF THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS

MARE ACCEPTED THAT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES

THE THIRD GENERATION HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT IN THE BROAD MIDDLE OF THE SOCIAL SCALE,

BUT DOES HAVE EFFECTS AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM

THESE EFFECTS ARE INTERACTIONS, THE FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION DO MORE IN COMBINATION

THAN EACH GENERATION DOES ON ITS OWN

MARE ALSO WANTS TO STUDY THE SIZE OF THE EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION IN CHINA, BEFORE THE ADVENT OF

INDUSTRIALISM THE MOST DEVELOPED AGRARIAN SOCIETY THE WORLD EVER KNEW

MY HYPOTHESIS HERE IS THAT IN THE CONTEMPORARY NETHERLANDS,

BECAUSE OF THE GENERAL INCREASE IN LONGEVITY,

THE TOTAL EFFECT OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION ON THIRD

EDUCATION IS GROWING

CHILDREN NOWADAYS LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS, WITH THEIR

GRANDPARENTS LIVING APART

BUT CHILDREN VISIT THEIR GRANDPARENTS

AND THE GRANDPARENTS DO THEIR BEST TO MAKE THIS STAY ENJOYABLE

FOR THEIR GRANDCHILDREN

FOR THE CHILDREN THIS STAY IS QUALITY TIME

OUR DATA PERTAIN TO THE NETHERLANDS

AND WERE COLLECTED IN FIVE SIMILAR SURVEYS CALLED THE

FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH

POPULATION

ABBREVIATED IN DUTCH FNBIN SOUTH AFRICA THIS IS A BANK

YEARS OF SURVEY:

1992

1998

2000

2003

2009

IN EACH SURVEY YEAR ABOUT 1,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS

WERE INTERVIEWED

IF THEY WERE OFFICIALLY MARRIED OR LIVING IN A

COMMON-LAW MARRIAGE, THEIR PARTNERS WERE

INTERVIEWED TOO

IF A PARENT WAS STILL ALIVE, THAT PARENT RECEIVED A MAIL

QUESTIONNAIRE

IF A CHILD WAS 25 YEARS OR OLDER, THAT CHILD RECEIVED

A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE

ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS (SECOND GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THE

EDUCATION OF THEIR FATHER AND MOTHER (FIRST GENERATION)

THE PRESENT SPOUSE OF EACH PRIMARY RESPONDENT WAS ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION

OF HER OR HIS FATHER AND MOTHER

ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF ALL THE CHILDREN (THIRD

GENERATION) THEY HAVE WITH THEIR PRESENT SPOUSE

IN THE MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) AND PARENTS (FIRST GENERATION)

WERE ASKED AFTER THEIR EDUCATION

SO, WE HAVE TWO MEASURES FOR THIRD GENERATION AND FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION

WE WILL ASSUME IN LATER RESEARCH THAT

PROXY MEASURES ARE LESS ACCURATE THAN

FIRSTHAND MEASURES

WE WILL NOT ESTIMATE FIRSTHAND STATISTICAL MODELS HERE

AT LEAST IN OUR FIRST SURVEY YEAR WE - UNDERSTANDABLY - DID NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH

SECOND GENERATION CASES

WITH DOUBLE MEASURES FOR THE FIRST GENERATION AND FOR THE THIRD GENERATION

FROM OUR FIVE SURVEYS, WITH SOME 5,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS

WE EXTRACTED 2,400 CHILDREN 25 YEARS OR OLDER

SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE CHILD PER PARENT, (WE APPLIED A CLUSTER CORRECTION TO THE

STANDARD ERRORS)

FOR THESE PERSONS WE HAVE VALID SCORES FOR

OWN EDUCATION,

FATHER’S EDUCATION,

MOTHER’S EDUCATION,

EDUCATION OF FATHER’S FATHER,

EDUCATION OF FATHER’S MOTHER,

EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S FATHER, AND

EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S MOTHER

RESULTS OF A TABULAR ANALYSIS

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON

CHILD’S EDUCATION

WHEN HOLDING CONSTANT FOR FATHER’S EDUCATION, FOR THOSE WITH A HIGHLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS

NO EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION

FOR THOSE WITH A LOWLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS A POSITIVE EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S

EDUCATION

SO, THERE IS AN INTERACTION EFFECT, BUT NOT THE ONE PREDICTED BY MARE

Table 3. Relationship between education of grandparents and child by education parents (row %)

Father

No tertiary Tertiary

Child Child

No tertiary Tertiary No tertiary Tertiary

Father's father No tertiary 70 30 31 69

Tertiary 53 47 28 72

Odds ratio's: 2.08 and 1.12

Mother

No tertiary Tertiary

Child Child

No tertiary Tertiary No tertiary Tertiary

Mother's father No tertiary 65 35 29 71

Tertiary 54 46 28 72

Odds ratio's: 1.61 and 1.02

Source: Family Survey Dutch Population, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2009

THEN WE ESTIMATED LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

WE RECODED LEVELS OF EDUCATION ACCORDING THE NUMBER OF YEARS PEOPLE MINIMALLY STUDY FOR A

CREDENTIAL

WE PLAYED AROUND BY ESTIMATING TWELVE MODELS

WHEN CONSIDERING ALL CHILDREN, THERE IS A EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S

EDUCATION

BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT UPON THE INTRODUCTION OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION

THIS FINDING REPEATS ITSELF FOR WOMEN, BUT NOT FOR MEN

IN THE SEPERATE COHORTS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE FOUND OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION NET OF

FATHER’S EDUCATION

FINALLY WE ESTIMATED LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS WITH THE ODDS OF TERTIARY CREDENTIALS VERSUS

LOWER CREDENTIALS AS THE PHENOMENON TO BE PREDICTED

WE PLAYED ONCE MORE AROUND WITH MODELS

FOR ALL THIRD GENERATION PERSONS, THERE IS NO DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S

EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION,

THAT DIRECT EFFECT IS NOT THERE EITHER FOR MALE CHILDREN OR FEMALE CHILDREN SEPERATELY

WHEN CONSIDERING THE EARLIER COHORT, THERE IS AN INSIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF

FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION

IN THE LATER COHORT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S

EDUCATION

AND A DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION

WHEN BRINGING IN MOTHER’S EDUCATION, THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION

BECOMES ALMOST FULLY INDIRECT

THIS TELLS ABOUT INDIRECT EFFECTS OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION BY WAY OF THE EDUCATION OF THE SECOND GENERATION

SPOUSE

THAT IS WHY I SAY THAT IT IS BETTER TO SHIFT FROM ONE-PARENT TO TWO-PARENTS MODELS

THAN FROM TWO-GENERATIONS TO THREE- GENERATIONS MODELS

THERE MAY BE NO DIRECT THIRD GENERATION EFFECT

IF THE TWO GENERATION MODEL IS NOT A ONE-PARENT MODEL

BUT A TWO-PARENTS MODELS

THIS PRESENTATION OBVIOUSLY IS A REPORT ON WORK IN PROGRESS

WE STILL WANT TO ESTIMATE RECURSIVE MODELS

WE HAVE TO DEVISE A BETTER TEST OF CHANGES IN THE COURSE OF TIME BY

RECODING YEAR OF BIRTH

NOT INTO TWO CATEGORIES,

BUT BY TAKING IT IS A METRIC (PERHAPS ACCORDING TO SOME MEASURE FOR LIFE

EXPECTANCY)

WE STILL HAVE TO APPLY CORRECTIONS BY REPLACING PROXY MEASURES FOR THE FIRST

AND THIRD GENERATION BY FIRSTHAND MEASURES (BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THEM FOR

EVERYONE IN OUR SAMPLE)

IF THERE IS MEASUREMENT ERROR IN FATHER’S EDUCATION

WILL IT GO INTO FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION

IF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION IS MEASURED WITH MORE ERROR THAN FATHER’S

EDUCATION?

Table 6. Measurement error in education, multiple measurements

Answeraccording to

parent

Answeraccording to

child

Answeraccording to grandparent

Corre-lation

between answers

Simila-rity in

answers (%) N

Years Tertiary Years Tertiary YearsTertiar

y Years TertiaryChild 14.1 41 13.8 36 - - 0.83 92 133

Father's father 10.9 16 - - 10.9 15 0.74 87 126

Father's mother 8.6 1 - - 8.4 2 0.72 99 206

Mother's father 11.0 20 - - 10.2 13 0.76 91 113

Mother's mother 8.6 3 - - 8.7 2 0.68 98 267

Source: Family Survey Dutch Population, 1998blue if difference between answers is significant at p < 0.01; red if difference is

significant at p < 0.05

AS YET, I DO NOT FEEL HOPELESS ABOUT MY

BOURDIEU HYPOTHESES

ALL MY POWERPOINTS FROM HAIFA WILL BE POSTED ON MY WEBSITE

TYPE IN GOOGLE

WOUT ULTEE

CLICK THE FIRST HIT,

GO ON THE LEFT TO PRESENTATIONS, THEN TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS

THERE YOU WILL FIND THE POWERPOINTS