Where is the Love?Hong Kong’s search for a new direction under the next Chief

Executive

14 February 2012

1 Center, 2 Surveys

1. Centering on the election context & challenges facing Chief Executive candidates

A. Random sample of the General Public

B. Random sample of Functional Constituency Registered Voters

C. Conducted first 2 weeks of January

Identity

Feelings on China’s National Day

The National Context of the Chief Executive Election

T:38 How does the celebration of 1st October National Day make

you feel?

T:58 Feelings by Income/Class (GP/FC no significant

difference)

Do you support/oppose the school children to sing National Anthem and have flag

raising every day?

From the October 2011 NDI survey

identity

How would you describe yourself?

A Fundamental Shift?

T:60 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with the performance

of the Chinese Gov in ruling China? (GenPub)

T:64 Proportion of Identities by Feelings on 1 Oct

T:68 Which do you consider most important to you personally to see

protected & promoted?

T:69 Most important HK & China identity by Feelings on 1

Oct (GP)

T:71 Most important HK & China id by ID choices

(GP)

satisfaction

The Governance Context of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Election

III/T:1 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with performance of

PRC Gov dealing with HKSAR affairs?

III/T:7 Satisfaction with performance of SAR Government dealing with

PRC Government

FC: 51%Diss/43%Satisfied

III/T:12 Satisfaction with performance of PRC Gov in

ruling China

FC: 53%Diss/38%Satisfied

III/T:17 Satisfaction with performance of HKSAR Gov

FC: 60%Diss/37%Satisfied

Politics

The Local Political Context of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Election

IV/T:1 Of the political parties in Legco, which party if any do you feel represents or protects your interests

best?

IV/T:2 Which party best represents, Recoded and

Comparative

Pro-Establishment: DAB, FTU, LP, NPPPro-Democracy: DP, CivPPro-Labour: LSD, PP, CTU

The voters & the public

The FC voters

Work Sector

EDucation

Income

Participation previous 6 months

IV/T:16 Vote for CE by Which party represents best

General Public

FC Voters

IV/T:19 If no pro-democracy candidate, then who by Which party

represents best

General Public

FC Voters

Issues

The Public Opinion Context of the Chief Executive Election

V/T:3 In your view, what is most urgent issue that should be addressed by candidates?

Issue Reclassifications

• Unemployment, social welfare cuts, cross-border crime, influx of immigrants and wages and working hours are reclassified as socio-economic stress issues.

• Systemic reform includes healthcare reform, educational reform, constitutional reform and environmental protection—all of which call for change.

• The wealth gap, housing and economic growth and other categories are not reclassified

Age & FC/GP

General Public

FC Voters

V/T:9&10 Which candidate would vote for by Most urgent issues candidates should

address

General Public

FC Voters

Systemic issuesFairness, Trust, Competence, Problem-solving

Fairness

VI/T:1 Do you think the government currently makes policies in general fairly, helping or hurting all parties equally, or unfairly, favoring the interests of some over others?

VI/T:4 Fairness of policy making by Most urgent issues candidates should address

(GP)

VI/T:6 Fairness of policy making by Which candidate would you vote for

(GP)

Those who would vote for Tang say by larger margins policy making is fair

trust

VI/T:8 Who of the Chief Executive candidates do you trust most to handle relations with:

Competence

VI/T:9 Which of the Chief Executive candidates do you think would do the best job of:

VI/T:19 Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Gov’s performance on this

problem? (GP)

Highest dissatisfaction since 2003

VI/T:20 Which CE candidate do you think would do the best job to improve gov’s performance

on your problem of greatest personal concern?

Constitutional REformThe Issue that Dare Not Speak its Name

VII/T:6 Would you support/oppose the following: Change the CE nominating process to a popular

primary system with the top 2 candidates competing in the direct election?

VII/T:8 Would you support or oppose the following: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the

number of voters in each constituency?

Table 10 Would you support or oppose the following: Abolish

Functional Constituencies completely?

601 General Public interviewees/246 Functional Constituency voters by random telephone surveyInformation of previous surveys on http://www.hktp.org

Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project funded by a grant from CDI http://www.cdiorg.hk

Hong Kong Transition Project

• Established in 1988, headquartered at HKBU

• Multi-disciplinary, multi-national, multi-institutional study on the transition from colonial to citizen rule

• Academic, independent, pro-good governance

• Funded by competitive research grants from governments, commissioned research from Non-governmental organizations. Two surveys commissioned annually by CDI

• Members with partisan commitments do not participate in research in which they may have an interest nor see reports before public release. The P.I. is NOT a member of any party in Hong Kong but is an elected representative of the Higher Education sub-sector of the Chief Executive Election Committee, as part of the method of “participatory observation”

http://www.hktp.org