Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive...
-
Upload
morgan-haven -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive...
![Page 1: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Where Is Economy Headed?
Implications for Southern Forestry!!
Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISIPresentation to SCFA Annual MeetingNovember 3, 2011
![Page 2: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Where We are Going Today!
Understanding the situation: WHY? Economic and housing outlook Translation to wood products demand Regional implications: logs and timber Longer term: There WILL be a recovery
![Page 3: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Bernanke’s said in 2010:
“An unusually uncertain environment”
Translation: flying blind
![Page 4: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Financial meltdown: Sources of sustained recovery?
![Page 5: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Unique cycle and source of global financial crisis
![Page 6: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Perspective: More difficult than 1979-82
Extremely low operating rate “Depression” prices
![Page 7: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Where We are Going Today!
Understanding the situation: WHY? Economic and housing outlook
![Page 8: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
The Challenge: Economic Forecast given the NEW WORLD
Current best view: sluggish growth through 2012-13– Key Driver: Consumer Spending -- not too exciting– Strong Business Investment last Quarter– Several Headwinds: Housing, State and Local Government,
Politics for 2012 Election Biggest Risk: European debt crisis (future of the Euro)
![Page 9: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
U.S. Growth : Revised down since May, with serious implications for employment
Key Driver: consumer spending, but..
– Employment– Confidence– Wealth
Strong Bus Investment Modest boost from
international—weaker Euro?
Truth: uncharted waters– Range of forecasts for
2012: .5%-3.5%
![Page 10: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Decline in employment rate helps unemployment statistic
The statistic for: 2007 2009 2011
Unemployment rate (%) 4.6% 9.3% 9.2%
Labor force (millions) 153.1 154.2 153.7
Employment (millions) 146.0 139.9 139.6
![Page 11: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Falling home prices have serious wealth impact and potentially on consumer spending
![Page 12: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Oil Prices Supported by Emerging Economies and Weak Dollar
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil, US$ per Barrel
Source: Fed, RISI
![Page 13: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Expect rates to remain flat through 2012: but not an issue for housing
![Page 14: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Housing Outlook: Unique situation
Single-family still flat– Problems persist for SF
into 2012– Falling prices and
foreclosure rates– Despite record affordability
Multifamily prospects improving– Vacancy rates, rents,
absorption rates
![Page 15: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Housing Outlook: Inventory correction with a TWIST
New Housing “Model”: THINKING About Plausible Recovery Patterns—no history to build econometric model
Correct approach: simulate inventory correction process—must eliminate excess before production recovers
1. How big is the excess inventory?
2. Determine annual housing “demand” vs. housing production
3. What type of units will be required—Single Family vs. Multi Family?— This is the Twist!
4. Then, simulate housing start trajectory given some key assumptions—BE CAREFUL HERE!!
![Page 16: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Starting Point of 1.8 Million Excess Vacant Units, but it could be……
Size of Stock (Millions)
Historical Vacancy Rate Avg. for ‘95-’05
CurrentVacancy Rate
Implied “excess”Inventory (Millions)
Owner Occupied 75 1.5% 2.7% 0.90
Renter Occupied 37 7.4% 9.4% 0.74
Occupancy Rate 130 88.0% 85.6% 3.10
![Page 17: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Forecasting basic housing demand: Simple?
Housing Demand=Net Household Growth + Net Removals + Second Home demand
Net Household Growth developed by age group=population growth and headship rate
Net Removals: 350,000-450,000 per year
![Page 18: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Household Formations: Outlook based on April GDP and employment growth
Starting point (April 2011) was 2.9% GDP growth and 3.4% in 2012
![Page 19: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Illustration of economic impact on the younger age groups
Employment Rate Headship Rate
2000-2005 2005-2010 2000-2005 2005-2010
20-24 -1.1% -8.1% 3.7% -13.2%
25-34 -0.3% -5.0% 2.1% -5.8%
If headship rate had been stable: another 2 million household or 400,000/ year in housing demand
![Page 20: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Simulating Housing Production and Tracking the Inventory Correction
(Thousands) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Housing Demand, given household forecast*
655 868 1,255 1,400 1,600 1,675 1,575
LESS: Production (Starts +Mobile Homes)
560 640 637 693 1,100 1,400 1,675
Inventory by Year End
2,028 1,800 1,182 475 -25 -300 -200
* Net removals assumption: 500,000/year
![Page 21: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
What type of units? Reason it is important
Ave. Size Usage/sf. Demand/unit
Lumber per unit
Single F 2464 6.3 15,170
Multi F 1285 4.2 4,970
OSB per unit
Single F 2464 4.8 11,400
Multi F 1285 3.0 3,500
Reference: 100,000 single family units need 1.5 billion bf lumber and 1.1 billion sq. ft. of OSB
![Page 22: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Type of unit demanded: Ownership Rate is the KEY!
1995 2005 2010
Total OccupiedHousing Stock
97.1 108.2
Owner 62.3 74.6
Rental 34.8 33.7
Ownership Rate 64% 69%
Average for Period Ending In:
Owner Demand Annual Rate 1.31
Actual SF Starts Annual Average 1.66
![Page 23: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Importance of Ownership Rate for Mix of Housing Units Started
1995 2005 2010
Total OccupiedHousing Stock
97.1 108.2 112.1
Owner 62.3 74.6 75.1
Rental 34.8 33.7 37.0
Ownership Rate 64% 69% 67%*
Average for Period Ending In:
Owner Demand Annual Rate 1.31 -.8
Actual SF Starts Annual Average 1.66 .73
*At 65.9% in 2011.2 and falling
![Page 24: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Step 3: Mix of Starts Determined by Ownership Rate Trends
Key driver for housing mix Drove single family housing boom/bubble—
now…
![Page 25: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
RISI BASE CASE: expect little improvement until 2013
![Page 26: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Existing Home Sales Hard to Interpret –New Homes Message Clear
![Page 27: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Small boost in product demand from R&R
Lag home sales Modest growth in 2012,
but recent events are not helping
Given who is buying existing homes: focus on improvements not additions
![Page 28: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Where We are Going Today!
Understanding the situation: WHY? Economic and housing outlook Translation to wood products demand
![Page 29: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Given housing outlook, wood products demand outlook through 2013 is:
![Page 30: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Lumber Prices: Bouncing off bottom and some very different regional factors
SPF reflects export market SYP closes on SPF
![Page 31: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
One factor: Housing starts in Canada vs. California
![Page 32: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Key factor in cash cost and price outlook: C$ forecast
BC $/mbf in*:
2004 2011
C$ $269 $195
U.S $/C$ .77 1.05
US$$207
$205
Plus duty --- $31
Cash break-even today --- $236
*based on RISI mill surveys
![Page 33: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Canadian Dollar Overvalued, But Supported by Commodities
![Page 34: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
Factor #4: China demand for logs and lumber
![Page 35: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Demand for N.A. Lumber: Very slow improvement in overall demand
![Page 36: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
Exports: No Indication That South Is Making Significant Inroads in the Offshore Export Market
![Page 37: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
Bottom Line: Prices near cash costs and SYP reflects domestic market
![Page 38: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
US Domestic Market: US South Is Capturing Market Share
![Page 39: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39
Where We are Going Today!
Understanding the situation: WHY? Economic and housing outlook Translation to wood products demand Regional implications: logs and timber Longer term: There WILL be a recovery
![Page 40: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Log prices follow lumber prices
Overall harvest remains far below peak and sustainable levels– Inventory building in the U.S.
Western prices reflect impact of lumber price rebound and log exports to China
Southern log market: very different story for sawtimber and pulpwood
Canadian constraint becomes apparent as recovery proceeds, but not an issue in 2011-12sd
![Page 41: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
*Third quarter is based on July average.
**Assumes 7.5 short tons per MBF.
(Delivered Sawtimber Prices Compared, $/MBF, Scrib., qtrly)
West benefits from China while the South remains depressed…
![Page 42: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
US log exports to China are contracting in July-August
(Million M3)
Note: Includes Alaska
25% of harvest demand
![Page 43: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43
Both Regions recover slowly with overall demand, but….
Western mills benefits from log exports Slower demand recovery in South
(BBF, Softwood Sawtimber Demand*)
*Coast and Inland region combined.
![Page 44: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44
Stumpage price reflects expected SYP lumber prices
SYP Stumpage, $/GST
![Page 45: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45
U.S. Southern Pine Pulpwood outlook positive for several reasons
![Page 46: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46
Where We are Going Today!
Understanding the situation: WHY? Economic and housing outlook Translation to wood products demand Regional implications: logs and timber Longer term: There WILL be a recovery
![Page 47: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47
Recovery eventually happens and will sustain!!!
When will be get to “trend” demand?What will be capacity/harvest limit?
Beetle kill is a constraint on BC Harvest long-term
![Page 48: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
Back to the beginning premise: Planning for Recovery
VERY DIFFERENT THAN THE 1980’S:– CLEAR SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS– DEMAND RECOVERY THE PROBLEM THIS TIME
UNLIKE PAPER: – DEMAND WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER– NO MAJOR INTERNATIONAL THREAT TO SOFTWOOD
STRUCTURAL GRADE PRODUCTS
– VERY POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR N.A. WOOD AND TIMBER INDUSTRY BEYOND 2015: THERE WILL BE A RECOVERY!!!!
![Page 49: Where Is Economy Headed? Implications for Southern Forestry!! Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis—Executive Adviser, RISI Presentation to SCFA Annual Meeting November.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062620/551b2425550346dd1a8b4720/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
49
What questions OR What questions OR COMMENTS do you COMMENTS do you
have?have?
Contact: Lynn [email protected]