West End Outlook - Urbis Report
-
Upload
position-property -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
2
Embed Size (px)
description
Transcript of West End Outlook - Urbis Report

BOUTIQUE CAFES AND DINING CYCLE NETWORK
VIEW OF BRISBANE CITY
WEST ENDWest End accommodates all three of the Urbis economics and research fundamentals that make a sustainable suburb – Population, Infrastructure and Employment.
1 POP INF EMP
BUSTLING CAFES, DINING DESTINATIONS AND BOUTIQUE RETAIL AMENITY
CONNECTIVITY PROVIDED BY INTEGRATED CYCLING, FERRY & BUS NETWORKS
3KM FROM THE BRISBANE CBD, QUEENSLAND’S LARGEST EMPLOYMENT NODE
B
D
F
A
C
E
A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL
West End offers significant commercial, entertainment and leisure amenity alongside a waterfront setting, all within three kilometres of the Brisbane CBD.
APRIL 2015
STRATEGIC LOCATIONPositioned within walking distance to a wealth of retail and lifestyle amenity / Pg 02
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTSignificant completed and proposed infrastructure investment / Pg 04
EMPLOYMENT GROWTHSurrounded by major employment nodes with almost 100,000 new jobs by 2031 / Pg 05
POPULATION GROWTHWest End has outperformed previous population projections in recent times / Pg 06
SALE PRICE GROWTH West End’s median apartment sale price shows a premium over the Brisbane LGA / Pg 08
NEW PRODUCT PREMIUMNew apartments in West End are showing rental premiums of up to 27 per cent over the total West End Market / Pg 09
OUTLOOK WEST END

2 URBIS WEST END OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
8
14
23
31 3233 34
27
37
MILTON
TOOWONG
BRISBANE RIVER
16
29
28
9
TRAIN
BUS
CITYCAT
West End offers a waterfront setting within close proximity to significant commercial, entertainment and leisure amenity, located less than three kilometres from the Brisbane CBD.
Providing waterfront living and CBD proximity, West End balances inner city lifestyle and extensive green space. Boundary Street showcases an eclectic mix of fashion, restaurants, cafes and nightlife, providing locals with access to a 24/7 activity hub. The regular West End Farmers’ Market and a calendar of festivals continues to attract visitors from throughout Brisbane, while art galleries, theatres and music venues play host to a vibrant arts scene.
West End’s central location within Inner Brisbane offers convenient walkability in every direction. A walk along the river connects to Brisbane’s leading cultural centre and key food and dining hotspots, with Grey Street providing a cosmopolitan mix of multicultural cuisine. West End also is well serviced by ferry and bus networks, providing public transport connectivity to the Brisbane CBD and other key destinations.
30
WALKABILITY & ACCESSIBILITY West End

© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS WEST END OUTLOOK 3
LADY CILENTO CHILDREN’S HOSPITAL/ MATER HOSPITAL 2MIN
7
2 1
15
22
24
25
19
26
20
35
21
36GREY ST
BOUNDARY ST
VULTURE ST
MONTAGUE RD
HARDGRAVE RD
BRISBANE CBD
WEST END
17
3
MELBOURNE ST 4
518
11 10 12 136
GOLD COAST 50MIN
UNIVERSITY OF QLD 10MIN
BRISBANE AIRPORT20MIN
WEST END CITYCAT 2MIN
Enter
tain
men
t, Sh
oppi
ng &
Din
ing Cu
ltura
lEd
ucat
ion
Infra
struc
ture
Recr
eatio
n &
gree
n sp
ace
7
2
10
3
11
4
12
5
13
8
6
141
9
Boundary Street Dining & Entertainment PrecinctThe Markets Shopping Centre & Coles Supermarket
Hardgrave Road Dining Precinct
Melbourne Street Dining Precinct
Little Stanley Street Dining Precinct
Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre
Queen Street Mall
The Barracks Retail & Dining Precinct
Gallery of Modern Art (GOMA)
Queensland Art Gallery
State Library of Queensland
Queensland Museum
Queensland Performing Arts Centre (QPAC)
Queensland Theatre Company
15
22
30
16
23
31
17
24
32
18
25
33
19
26
34
20
27
35
21
28
36
29
37
Queensland University of Technology Gardens Point
Queensland University of Technology Kelvin Grove
Griffith University
Tafe Queensland - South Bank Campus
Brisbane State High School
West End State School
Somerville House
Orleigh Park
Davies Park & West End Markets
Musgrave Park
South Bank Parklands
City Botanic Gardens
Roma Street Parklands
Suncorp Stadium
Victoria Park Golf Course
Riverside Cycle & Pedestrian Path
Go Between Bridge
Merivale Bridge
William Jolly Bridge
Kurilpa Bridge
Victoria Bridge
Goodwill Bridge
Wesley Hospital
3KM TO CITY

WEST END
WEST END DINING PRECINCT
MILTON
HIGHGATE HILL
SOUTH BRISBANE
BRISBANE CBD
KANGAROO POINT
7
8
9
10
611
12 13
3
4
MUSGRAVE PARK
DAVIES PARK
RIVERSIDE SOUTH
GO BETWEEN BRIDGE
MILTON COMMERCIAL OFFICE PARK
KURILPA BRIDGE
VICTORIA BRIDGE
GOODWILL BRIDGE
WILLIAM JOLLY
BRIDGE
ORLEIGH PARK
CITY BOTANIC GARDENS
CYCLE PATH
TRAIN STATIONS
CITY GLIDER BUS
CITYCAT STOPS
12
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND
GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY
TAFE QUEENSLAND - SOUTH BANK CAMPUS
MATER HOSPITAL
WESLEY HOSPITAL
SOUTH BANK PARKLANDS
CULTURAL PRECINCT
LEGEND
514
The large majority of West End’s
infrastructure is already present and
useable. This puts the suburb in an
envious position over other inner
city suburbs, which are leveraging
their future growth on planned
infrastructure projects.
Broad investment from public and
private enterprises has enabled the
West End Catchment (West End and
South Brisbane) to develop a wealth
of infrastructure that will continue
to drive employment growth and
demand for residential dwellings
within the market.
Recent infrastructure investment has provided a catalyst for employment
growth and residential demand
1 Kurilpa Riverfront Renewal The Kurilpa Riverfront Renewal aims to optimise the commercial potential of the precinct and explore the opportunity for a mix of quality commercial, retail and residential development along with new public spaces.
2 Queens Wharf $4 BILLION Queens Wharf is to be a world class development located on state-owned land between the Brisbane River, George, Alice and Queen Streets in the heart of Brisbane City.
3 Queensland Cultural Centre $1.15 BILLIONA world class multi-venue centre encompassing QPAC, Queensland Museum, State Library of Queensland, Queensland Art Gallery and GOMA.
4 Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre $333 MILLION
The BCEC hosts on average 1,300 events per year, generating in excess of $200 million in economic benefits for Brisbane and Queensland.
5 Go Between Bridge $338 MILLIONInner Brisbane’s first car-accessible bridge in 40 years links South Brisbane to the Brisbane CBD and northern suburbs.
6 Lady Cilento Children’s Hospital $1.2 BILLION
Expansion to Kurilpa plan streetscape $30 MILLION (Planned)
Arts Precinct Extension $225 MILLION (Planned)
South Bank Transit Site Redevelopment $250 MILLION (Planned)
Future Mass Transit $350 MILLION (Planned)
4 URBIS WEST END OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
INFRASTRUCTUREWest End Catchment
3KM TO CITY

Prepared by Urbis; Source: NIEIR Employment Forecasts, PCA Office Market Report, Urbis
West End is located centrally to South East Queensland’s major education providers. Within a two kilometre radius, there are more than 126,000 students, including in excess of 38,000 international students, currently studying in 13 educational institutes.
These include the University of Queensland, Queensland University of Technology, Tafe Queensland - South Bank Campus and Griffith University, with demand for local dwellings influenced by this significant student population. In addition to tertiary facilities, the West End Catchment also includes a number of Brisbane’s top secondary colleges, including Brisbane State High School, St Laurence’s College and Somerville House.
Within a two kilometre proximity of Queensland’s two largest universities
Almost 100,000 new jobs within walking distance by 2031
West End is located three kilometres from Queensland’s largest employment node, the Brisbane CBD. Furthermore, the neighbouring South Brisbane commercial precinct has evolved into a major white collar employment node providing significant local employment.
Benefiting from CBD proximity and a wealth of infrastructure, West End and South Brisbane have seen a growing concentration of employers within the precinct, with projections that an additional 27,398 jobs will be created in the catchment by 2031 (NIEIR Employment Forecasts). West End also provides easy access to other employment centres, like the Wesley Hospital and the University of Queensland.
Lady Cilento Children’s Hospital Queensland University of TechnologyCultural Precinct
Prepared by Urbis; Source: UQ, QUT, Tafe Queensland, Griffith University
WEST END & SOUTH BRISBANE
58,941 jobs
BY 2031
27,398 new jobs
INCREASE
BRISBANE CBD
222,178 jobs
BY 2031
65,633 new jobs
INCREASE
WEST END
12,493 jobs
BY 2031
3,691 new jobs
INCREASE
30,000 students
TAFE QUEENSLAND - SOUTH BANK CAMPUS
35,000 students
UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND
40,800 students
QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY
OF TECHNOLOGY
3,500 studentsGRIFFITH
UNIVERSITY SOUTH BANK CAMPUS
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS WEST END OUTLOOK 5
EMPLOYMENTWest End Catchment
EDUCATION West End Proximity

WEST END POPULATION GROWTH
Prepared by Urbis; Source: OESR Estimated Resident Population and Population Projections
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME / WEEK
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS
AGE DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS
6,098 7,290
8,839
10,664
15,967
19,328
22,146
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2027
20
28
2029
20
30
2031
ESTI
MA
TED
AN
D P
ROJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
PERIOD (ANNUAL)
0 to
4
5 to
9
10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
29
30 to
34
35 to
39
40 to
44
45 to
49
50 to
54
55 to
59
60 to
64
65 to
69
70 to
74
75 to
79
80 to
84
85 +
AGE DISTRIBUTION
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
PRO
PORT
ION
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
(%) WEST END
BRISBANE LGA
WEST ENDBRISBANE LGA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
PRO
PORT
ION
OF
RESI
DEN
TS (%
)
$1 to
$1
99
Neg
or
Nil
$200
to
$299
$300
to
$399
$400
to
$599
$600
to
$799
$800
to
$999
$1,0
00 to
$1
, 249
$1,2
50 to
$1
,499
$1,5
00 to
$1
,999
$200
0or
mor
e
INCOME BRACKET
PROJECTED 739 NEW RESIDENTS PER ANNUM
STRONG GEN Y REPRESENTATION
22% EARNING OVER $1,500 PER WEEK
WEST END’S PAST & FUTUREStrong population growth was experienced in West End between 2003 and 2013, with the suburb registering an increase of approximately 2,741 residents over the ten-year period, to a total of 8,839 residents. The growth in this area has outperformed the traditionally conservative Queensland Government population projections, thereby explaining why the population figures are lower for the initial periods of the current forecast.
Based on OESR projections, West End’s population is expected to increase by more than 13,300 new residents between 2013 and 2031, equating to an annual average growth rate of 5.2 per cent per annum. This growth is expected to be most prominent between 2013 and 2021, with an average annual growth rate of close to 7.7 per cent per annum expected.
West End’s location, benefiting from large employment nodes coupled with significant infrastructure, provides key economic fundamentals. These factors, combined with the potential for residential development, will contribute to sustained long-term population growth within the suburb. Urbis expects this growth to once again outperform the forecast projections.
Demographic changes have long been accredited as vital determinants of economic growth in relation to property market demand and supply fluctuations. The key economic fundamentals that support West End have attracted the demographic that West End is dominated by, with the age group of 20 to 34 making up more than 36 per cent of the population. This group has a proportion 42 per cent higher than the Brisbane LGA benchmark. The more mature Gen Y market, those aged 25 to 34 years of age, saw the greatest growth in proportion over the Census periods 2006 to 2011, growing from 22.3 per cent of the population to 25.4 per cent of the population. The Gen Y demographic typically seeks out locations that provide a wealth of amenity within walking distance (retail, education), connectivity to key destinations and proximity to employment opportunities.
The income distribution of West End shows that residents outperform the Brisbane LGA benchmark in the highest end income brackets. This higher income distribution in West End is especially promising and, given the relative age of the population, points to a significant young professional demographic. With an appetite for inner-city living but with limited savings available to purchase a dwelling, this young professional group choose to use their incomes to rent low-maintenance accommodation in well-located suburbs.
Young professionals are attracted to West End’s active local culture, high lifestyle amenity and CBD proximity
6 URBIS WEST END OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
POPULATION & SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHICS

Prepared by Urbis; Source: OESR Estimated Resident Population and Population Projections
Prepared by Urbis; Source: OESR Estimated Resident Population and Population Projections
QUALITY OF LIFE
PROXIMITY TO CBD
COMMUNITY & NETWORKS
LOW MAINTENANCE
DWELLINGS
WALKABILITY &
CONNECTIVITY
GREEN SPACE
SUSTAINABLE LIVING COSTS
WHA
T TH
EY W
ANT
The coming decade will see significant shifts in the composition of the Australian population, influencing demand and supply patterns that will differ from previous decades. In order to explore these impacts in depth, Urbis has used a number of sources and market experience to further understand Australia’s major demographic groups, which will aid decision making on structural shifts and future demands in property in this period.
The most dramatic change is expected to be the aging of the Baby Boomer generation into an empty nester/downsizer age distribution. This generation has been the focus point of the property market over the past 30 years, however this market is soon to be downsized from it status of top generation of focus. There is no denying that the Boomer demographic will still play an important role in the demand within the property market moving forward – being the biggest wave of the population moving into part-time employment and retirement in modern history. Significantly this demographic will not have as much of an impact on the property market’s structural demand and supply shifts moving into the next decade, with the Gen Y market providing this impact. The children of these Baby Boomers, “Generation Y,” have been emerging into adulthood, progressing through university, obtaining their first jobs and some even moving into their first independent home.
Investment strategy needs to be sensible to possible impacts and the magnitude and differing preferences each of these demographic waves will have on property performance moving forward. Demand for property over the next decade will be greatly impacted by how each of these unique generations behaves, lives, works and utilises space.
Despite the age gap, Baby Boomers seek similar dwelling characteristics to that of Generation Y - suburbs that offer diverse and inclusive communities, walkability to amenity, low maintenance living and proximity to key activity nodes.
» Lifestyle will be paramount when deciding on the next property of purchase for this demographic, driven by higher density, low-maintenance living.
» Inner-city living in mixed-age environments is expected to become an important lifestyle for Boomers.
» Walkable mixed-use locations with retail, food service and entertainment activities also will attract an increasing proportion of Boomers as they decide to trade down in size, but not in amenity value.
» This demographic between now and 2016 will likely be moving into independent living accommodation, which may represent one of Brisbane’s biggest dwelling demand circumstances ever to be recorded.
» Lifestyle will be paramount – Gen Y locate where they can best meet the goals of entertainment, amenity and employment.
» Diversity of ethnic group is embraced by this demographic, with higher density dwelling options often the norm in many of these diverse cultures.
» As Brisbane’s economy continues to grow - those exiting university and newly employed are expected to fuel tremendous demand for apartments.
Moving forward, the Gen Y & Empty Nester demographics will have an increasing impact on Brisbane’s residential markets
GEN Y ABOVE 24 YEARS OF AGE
BABY BOOMERS 2011
CENSUS2021
FORECAST
33% 26%
2011 CENSUS
2016 FORECAST
30% 40%
BABY BOOMER GENERATION
GENERATION Y
GEN Y
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS WEST END OUTLOOK 7
SHIFTING DEMANDThe Opportunity

WEST END APARTMENT SALES CYCLE
RESIDENTIAL MARKET - HALF-YEAR DEC 2014
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData
RENTAL COMPARISON DECEMBER QTR 2014
*Figure reflects 2 bed, 2 bath product. Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA, realestate.com.au, Agent’s advice
NUMBER OF SALES — WEST END CATCHMENT MEDIAN SALE PRICE — WEST END CATCHMENT
184
164
$499,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1984
DEC
19
85 D
EC
1986
DEC
19
87 D
EC
1988
DEC
19
89 D
EC
1990
DEC
19
91 D
EC
1992
DEC
19
93 D
EC
1994
DEC
19
95 D
EC
1996
DEC
19
97 D
EC
1998
DEC
19
99 D
EC
2000
DEC
20
01 D
EC
2002
DEC
20
03 D
EC
2004
DEC
20
05 D
EC
2006
DEC
20
07 D
EC
2008
DEC
20
09 D
EC
2010
DEC
20
11 D
EC
2012
DEC
20
13 D
EC
2014
DEC
MED
IAN
SA
LE P
RIC
E
NU
MBE
R O
F SA
LES
HALF-YEAR PERIOD
$445WEST END
CATCHMENT NEW PRODUCT
$350WEST END
CATCHMENT RTA RENTALS
$333BRISBANE CITY RTA RENTALS
WEST END CATCHMENT
NEW PRODUCT$580*
WEST END CATCHMENT RTA RENTALS
$530
BRISBANE CITY RTA RENTALS $400
WEST END CATCHMENT
NEW PRODUCT$840
WEST END CATCHMENT RTA RENTALS
$660
BRISBANE CITY RTA RENTALS $500
2 BED
1 BED
3 BED
19% PRICE
PREMIUM
$420kBRISBANE
LGA
$499kWEST END
CATCHMENT
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
RENTAL ANALYSIS
The rental comparison chart demonstrates the premium new apartment product within the West End Catchment achieves over the total existing stock.
New apartment product, with data collated from agents’ advice and via ‘on the market’ rentals, is currently indicating premiums of 9.4 per cent for two-bedroom apartment product and 27 per cent for one and three-bedroom apartment product over the total existing stock within the West End Catchment (Residential Tenancy Authority data).
The chart also highlights the rental premium for apartments in the West End Catchment over the Brisbane LGA benchmark, with a 5.1 per cent premium for one-bedroom, 45 per cent for two-bedroom and 32 per cent for three-bedroom apartments.
Rental growth has been exhibited in the West End Catchment over time, with an average annual rental growth of 7.2 per cent for one-bedroom apartments, 7.8 per cent for two-bedroom apartments, and 6.2 per cent for three-bedroom apartments over the ten years between December 2004 and December 2014.
SALES ANALYSIS
The median sale price, based on 164 settlements, for apartments within the West End Catchment (West End and South Brisbane) was registered at $499,000 for the half-year period ending December 2014. This represents a 19 per cent premium over the Brisbane LGA median sale price for the same period.
Apartments in the West End Catchment have shown a long-term upward trend over the course of the sales cycle, with median sale price increases averaging 4.9 per cent per annum over the last ten years. Furthermore, the most recent December 2014 half-year has shown a 11.5 per cent median sale price increase over the past two years since the December 2012 half-year.
West End apartments have attracted significant owner-occupier and investor demand given their premium location on the Brisbane River within close proximity to green spaces, employment nodes and retail amenity.
West End’s median apartment sale price is 19 per cent higher than the
Brisbane LGA
8 URBIS WEST END OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS

APARTMENT
APARTMENT
RIVERSIDE SOUTH PRECINCT VS WEST END CATCHMENT
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData
WEST END
MILTON
HIGHGATE HILL
SOUTH BRISBANE
BRISBANE CBD
MUSGRAVE PARK
DAVIES PARK
RIVERSIDE SOUTH
GO BETWEEN BRIDGE
MILTON COMMERCIAL OFFICE PARK
KURILPA BRIDGE
VICTORIA BRIDGE
GOODWILL BRIDGE
WILLIAM JOLLY
BRIDGE
ORLEIGH PARK
Apartments in the Riverside South pocket of West End are commanding a 45 per cent premium over the West End Catchment
The Riverside South Precinct of West End is a private pocket in the southern corner of the suburb. Adjacent to the river, this precinct is protected from the hustle and bustle of the nearby commercial and retail amenity, forming a quiet residential sanctuary. Despite this element of privacy, this pocket is close to all necessary major infrastructure and amenity with strong walkability and connectivity aspects catered for.
A CityCat terminal is within walking distance, taking residents directly to the Brisbane CBD and Hamilton (down river) and the University of Queensland (up river). The CityGlider Bus service runs directly through this southern riverside pocket of West End, connecting the precinct with the Brisbane CBD, Fortitude Valley and a number of Inner Brisbane employment nodes.The Riverside South pocket consists of a mix of established housing and apartment projects. Apartment developments within this precinct have varying degrees of river
MEDIAN SALE PRICE DECEMBER QTR 2014
$420,000 BRISBANE LGA
$499,000 WEST END
CATCHMENT
$722,000RIVERSIDE SOUTH
WEST END
PRICE PREMIUM
OVER WEST END CATCHMENT
OVER BRISBANE LGA
45%
72%
views, however all are within walking distance to the Brisbane River and both Davies Park and Orleigh Park. In order to better understand the Riverside South precinct in comparison to the wider West End Catchment, a pocket of new and near-new apartment buildings located in the precinct have been analysed. The buildings included in this analysis include Flow, Koko, Riverpoint and Waters Edge, and, in total, contain approximately 550 apartments.
The median sale price, based on 49 settled transactions, for the selected apartments within the Riverside South pocket was recorded at $722,000 for the year ending December 2014. This represents a 45 per cent premium over the West End Catchment median sale price and 72 per cent over Brisbane LGA figures, highlighting the premium nature of the residential offering in the Riverside South precinct.
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS WEST END OUTLOOK 9
RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Riverside South Apartment Premium
3KM TO CITY

OUTLOOK INSIGHTSSubtitle
10 URBIS WEST END OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU

© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS WEST END OUTLOOK 11
Orleigh Park, West End

Brisbane Level 7, 123 Albert St Brisbane QLD 4000
07 3007 3800
This publication is prepared on the instruction of Pradella Developments Pty Ltd and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure
that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know or unknown risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice
and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to
change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Pradella Developments Pty Ltd and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or
transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. / BPE0869