Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures...

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Welcome to Trading VIX ® Futures January 23, 2007 This Presentation will begin at 3:30 Central Time. The speaker today is Dan Passarelli, Instructor at The Options Institute of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

Transcript of Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures...

Page 1: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Welcome to

Trading VIX® FuturesJanuary 23, 2007

This Presentation will begin at 3:30 Central Time.

The speaker today is Dan Passarelli, Instructor at The Options Institute of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

Page 2: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Disclosures & DisclaimersFor the sake of simplicity, the examples that follow do not take into consideration commissions and other transaction fees, tax considerations, or margin requirements, which are factors that may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. An investor should review transaction costs, margin requirements and tax considerations with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy.

Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone.

Any strategies discussed, including those examples using actual securities and price data, are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell futures contracts. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon written request. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFE® is a registered trademark of CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC. CBOE® and VIX® are registered trademarks of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated (CBOE). S&P 500® is a trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and has been licensed for use by CBOE.

The methodology of the CBOE Volatility Index is owned by CBOE and may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications.

Page 3: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Presentation Outline

What Is VIX?

Why Futures on VIX?

Contract Specifications

The Futures-Cash Relationship

Unique Pricing Concepts

Two Trading Case Studies

Page 4: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

The VIX

VIX - the CBOE’s Volatility Index

Created in 1993 by Professor Robert Whaley of Duke University

Goal: to measure the level of 30-day implied volatility

Originally based on OEX options

2003 – Formula changed and underlying options changed to SPX

Page 5: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

What Is VIX?

CBOE’s Volatility Index is a proprietary measure of the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 Stock Index.

Page 6: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX and the S&P 500

Also known as the “Fear Index,” VIX gives an indication of how anxious options buyers are.

A “low” VIX indicates complacency.

A “high” VIX indicates anxiety.

VIX tends to rise as the SPX falls.

Page 7: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

SPX & VIX 1/2/04 – 1/30/05

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

12501/

2/20

04

2/2/

2004

3/2/

2004

4/2/

2004

5/2/

2004

6/2/

2004

7/2/

2004

8/2/

2004

9/2/

2004

10/2

/200

4

11/2

/200

4

12/2

/200

4

1/2/

2005

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

SPXVIX

Page 8: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

SPX & VIX 1/3/05 – 1/30/06

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

01/3

0/06

12/2

9/05

11/3

0/05

11/0

1/05

10/0

4/05

09/0

6/05

08/0

8/05

07/1

1/05

06/1

0/05

05/1

2/05

04/1

4/05

03/1

6/05

02/1

5/05

01/1

8/05

8

12

16

20

24

28

SPXVIX

Page 9: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

SPX & VIX 1/2/06 – 9/6/06

1100.00

1150.00

1200.00

1250.00

1300.00

1350.00

09/0

6/06

08/0

4/06

07/0

5/06

06/0

2/06

05/0

2/06

03/3

0/06

02/2

8/06

01/2

6/06

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

SPXVIX

Page 10: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX Futures – What Strategy?

Historical observation:

Market down → VIX up (& vice versa)

Implication:

Bullish on the market, sell VIX futures

Bearish on the market, buy VIX futures

Page 11: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX Contract Specs

Ticker symbol

Contract value and Tick Size

Contract months available

Trading Hours / Trades Online

Expiration Procedures

Marked-to-Market

Margin Requirements

Page 12: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Root Symbol: VX

February 07: VXG7

March 07: VXH7

April 07: VXJ7

May 07: VXK7

June 07: VXM7

August 07: VXQ7

November 07: VXX7

May 08: VXK8

Ticker Symbols

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VIX Index

VBI Index = 10 x VIX Index

Futures Contract Value = $100 x VBI

VIX = 15

VBI = 150

VX Futures: Price = 150

Value = $15,000 (150 * $100)

Futures Contract Value

Page 14: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Tick Size

1 tick = .10 (150.0 – 150.1)

= $10

1 point = 10 ticks (150.0 – 151.0)= $100

Page 15: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Available Contracts

Up to six near-term serial months and five months on the February quarterly cycle.

If today is January 23, 2007: Serial Months: March 2007, April 2007, June 2007, July 2007

Quarterly Months: February 2007, May 2007, August 2007, November 2007, May 2008

Page 16: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Trading Hours

Trading Hours: 8:30 am – 3:15 pm CST

Trades Online

Page 17: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Expiration Procedures

Last Trading Day: Tuesday (30 days before SPX options expire)

Final Settlement: Wednesday open

Special Opening Quotation of VIX (SOQ)VIX Cash Index based on mid-point of SPX Index Options bids and asks

***VIX SOQ based on 1st traded prices at open of SPX Index options

Page 18: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Margin Requirements

Long or Short per contract

Initial Margin $2,250

Minimum Margin $1,800

Spread per contract

Initial Margin $ 50

Minimum Margin $ 40

Page 19: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Margin & Leverage

Initial Margin = $ 2,250

Minimum Margin = $ 1,800

Buy 1 contract = $ 2,250 initial= $ 1,800 maintenance

If your account falls below $1,800, you must immediately close your position or deposit more money.

Page 20: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX compared to Nov VIX Futures

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.02/

22/2

005

3/8/

2005

3/22

/200

5

4/5/

2005

4/19

/200

5

5/3/

2005

5/17

/200

5

5/31

/200

5

6/14

/200

5

6/28

/200

5

7/12

/200

5

7/26

/200

5

8/9/

2005

8/23

/200

5

9/6/

2005

9/20

/200

5

10/4

/200

5

10/1

8/20

05

11/1

/200

5

11/1

5/20

05

Nov 05 VIX Futures/10

VIX Index

Page 21: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX compared to Jan VIX Futures

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.011

/21/

2005

11/2

8/20

05

12/5

/200

5

12/1

2/20

05

12/1

9/20

05

12/2

6/20

05

1/2/

2006

1/9/

2006

1/16

/200

6

Jan 06 VIX Futures/10

VIX Index

Page 22: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

1/3/2006 1/31/2006 2/28/2006 3/28/2006 4/25/2006 5/23/2006 6/20/2006 7/18/2006 8/15/2006

Aug 06 VIX Futures/10

VIX Index

VIX compared to Aug VIX Futures

Page 23: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX compared to VIX Futures

Date VIX Index VIX Futures/10

4/12 11.3 15.6

4/14 14.5 16.3

4/15 17.7 17.0

4/21 14.4 16.0

Page 24: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX Futures – VIX Index

What is the relationship?

Page 25: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

VIX Futures – VIX Index

VIX futures prices are based purely on expectations.

The current futures price is the market’s estimate of what the VIX Index will be at settlement.

There is no cost-of-carry relationship.

Page 26: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Case Study #1

Date 5/10/05 (98 days to Aug expiration)

VIX Index 12.8

VIX AUG Futures/10 15.6

Page 27: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

#1 – Your Forecast - 1

Date 5/10 → 5/24

VIX Index 12.8 → 20.0

AUG Futures/10 15.6 → ???

Page 28: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

#1 – Your Forecast - 1

Date 5/10 → 5/24

VIX Index 12.8 → 20.0

AUG Futures/10 15.6 → 19.0

Page 29: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Case Study #1 - Conclusions

VIX Index 12.8 → 20.0

Futures/10 15.6 → 19.0

premium → discount

Page 30: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Case Study #2

Date 7/4/05 (43 days to Aug expiration)

VIX Index 11.6

VIX AUG Futures/10 14.1

Page 31: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

#2 – Your Forecast

Date 7/4 (43) → 8/4 (12)

VIX Index 11.6 → 12.2

AUG Futures/10 14.1 → ???

Page 32: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

#2 – Your Forecast

Date 7/4 (43) → 8/4 (12)

VIX Index 11.6 → 12.2

AUG Futures/10 14.1 → 13.6

Page 33: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Case Study #2 - Conclusions

Date 7/4 (43) 8/4 (12)

VIX Index 11.6 → 12.2

Futures/10 14.1 → 13.6

Futures & Index converge at expiration

Page 34: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Summary - 1

VIX Futures (ticker VX) is based on the popular CBOE Volatility Index

Tick size = $10 (150.0 – 150.1)

Contract value with VIX at 15 = $15,000

Margin for 1 contract = $2,250

Page 35: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Summary - 2

VIX Futures prices are based on expectations,not cost of carry.

VIX Futures prices can swing from a premium to a discount relative to VIX index.

Page 36: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

High Volatility of Volatility

Avg. 30-Day Historic Volatilities in 2005

32.1%

17.9%

10.3%

45.8%

83.3%

Google

IBM

S&P 500

VIX Futures*

VIX

* Based on the near-term VIX futures prices

Page 37: Welcome to Trading VIX Futures - Interactive Brokers · 2007. 1. 30. · Trading VIX ® Futures January 23 ... with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any strategy. Futures

Thank You For Attending

Questions

Thank you for attending

For more information, please contact:

CBOE Futures Exchange

Mark Haraburda

[email protected]