SCENARIO OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET

WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON28TH JUL.2013

K G KRUPALAUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST

SENSEX MOVEMENT ON 26TH JULY ‘13

High : 19,907, Low: 19,699 (208 points), Close: 19,748

DATE SENSEX

CHANGEFII FIGS. in Rs. Crs.

DII FIGS. in Rs. Crs.

22/07/2013

+9.27 -406.20 +299.85

23/07/2013

+143.01

+211.35

+60.86

24/07/2013

-211.45 -404.50 -328.80

25/07/2013

-285.92 -442.94 -138.80

26/07/2013

-56.57 +278.04

-489.17

TOTAL -401.66 -764.07 -596.06

WEEKLY SCENARIO

INDICES

ALL TIME HIGH

ALL TIME LOW YEARLY

HIGH

PRESENT

BSE MID CAP

10,245.81(8TH Jan ‘08)

2,547.91(9TH Mar ‘09)

7,391.34(9th Jan ‘13)

5,751.39

BSE SMALL CAP

14,239.24(8TH Jan ‘08)

2.864.24(9TH Mar ‘09)

7,696.74(9th Jan ‘13)

5,499.12

BSE BANKEX

15,335.89(20TH May ‘13)

1,613.78(24TH June ‘03)

15,335.89(20TH May ‘13)

11,277.13

INDICES INDEX

INDICES ALL TIME HIGH

ALL TIME LOW

YEARLY HIGH

PRESENT

BSE FMCG7,600.05(24TH July ‘13)

705.66(24th Apr.’03)

7,600.05(24TH July ‘13)

7,279.11

BSE AUTO 11,868.56(10TH Jan ‘13)

2,127.862nd Dec’08

11,868.56(10TH Jan ‘13)

10,649.82

BSE METAL 20.494.62(4TH Jan’08)

3,806.79(27th Oct.08)

11,510.14(7th Jan ‘13)

6,978.82

BSE IT 8,678.00(22ND Feb ‘00)

835.02(21ST Sep ‘01)

7,306.73(26th July’ 12)

7,241.32

INDICES MAZIC

INVESTMENT

•Business performance•Focus on value •Understand company •Rational approach•Depends on analysis

value of analysis diminishes, as element of chance increases

SPECULATION

• Price performance• Focus on price• Rely on information• Fashionable approach• Depends on chance

Speculator react to prices. Investor react to fundamentals

•

GLOBAL FINANCIAL LITERACY BAROMETER (12/06/12)

COUNTRY RANKING FINANCIAL LITERATE POPULATION

BRAZIL 1 50.4%

MEXICO 2 47.8%

AUSTRALIA 3 46.3%

UNITED STATES 4 44.6%

INDIA 23 35%

SOUTH AFRICA 25 34%

PAKISTHAN 28 27.3%

IT ESTIMATES FUTURE VALUE ON SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS.

FUTURE EVENTS PERCOLATES INTO PRESENT VALUES.

IT DISCOUNTS FUTURE AND NEGLECTS, WHEN FUTURE TURNS PRESENT.

MOVES EITHER WAY IN LIGHTENING SPEED. PROVIDING liquidity is the prime plus point of

this market.

BROKERS & SUB-BROKERS

10,203

10,268

9,643

83,808

77,141

69,335

FIGURES FOR 2010-11, 2011-12 & 2012-13 (UPTO May. 2013)

• Shares which are trading @ below the book value, high dividend yield, low P/E multiple, low price to book value, or quotation is below the intrinsic value are value stocks.

VALUE STOCKS

• 1. Demand and Supply• 2. Corporate development --general & specific• 3. Govt. policies & its impact• 4. Developments affecting country’s economy • 5. Index changes and price variation in global

markets.• 6. F I Is and M.F.s activities.• 7. Change in promoters stake.• 8. Settlements and outstandings in F & O.• 9. Raising of funds, issue of ADR/GDR/FCCBS.• 10. Media highlights, both print and electronic.

FACTORS INFLUENCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

• CAPITAL MARKET IS SUPER SENSITIVE AND BECAUSE OF ITS NATURE THE NAME SENSITIVE INDEX (SENSEX) IS ARRIVED.

• MONSOON FACTOR, ECONOMIC FACTORS LIKE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, EXPORTS & IMPORTS, INFLATION, BANKING REGULATORY ACTIONS SUCH AS CRR, REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE CHANGE ETC.

• REGULATORY ACTIONS AGAINST MARKET, COMPANIES, CHANGE IN POLICIES OF GOVT.

WHAT FACTORS IMPACT CAPITAL MARKET

• COPORATE BENEFITS SUCH AS BONUS,

RIGHTS, DIVIDEND ACTIONS LIKE STOCK SPLIT, NAME CHANGE, CONSOLIDATION, STAKE SALE OR CHANGE, BUSINESS AGREEMENTS, MERGER & AMALGAMATION, PLEDGING & RELEASE OF SHARES BY MANAGEMENTS

FACTORS INFLUENCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS (INTERNAL)

Greediness

Weakness

Hasty decisions Ignorance

THREATS

Losing capitalReturns Risk

Loss of liquidity

STRENGTHS

Be informed before invest

Keep cool & balanced mind for market variations

Restrict operations for making reasonable profit

OPPURUNITIES

Capital appreciation Corporate benefits

• Sensitivity barometer of the market which shows the mood and trend of the investors. Sensex has become a brand of the Indian Capital Market.

• Because of the heavy monetary flood from local and foreign funds sensex has touched all time high of 21,206.77 on 10.01.08. With market capitalisation of Rs.71,41,611 Crores, there are only 30 shares in the Sensex

• PRESENT MARKET CAP : Rs.64.34 lac Crs. On 26th July13

SENSEX

COMPN

31/12/02

15/1/04

1/04/05

31/03/06

30/03/07

22/10/10

26/07/13

SENX 3376

6219

6506

11325

13018

20165

19,748

ACC 165 259 364 782 734 984 1,210

BHEL 172 561 802 2246 2260 2533 158(2)

HDFC

358 644 716 1336

1520

277(2)

805

ICICI B

140 299 405 589 853 1131

932

TISCO

151 442 409 536 449 617 218

TELCO

489 434 932 727 1152 289(2)

SENSEX & CONSTITUENTS MOVEMENT

24TH MAY : 19,704.33 31st May : 19,760.30 08th June : 19,429.23 14th June : 19,177.9321ST JUNE : 18,774.24 28th June : 19,395.81 05th July : 19,495.82 12th July : 19,958.4719TH JULY : 20,149.85 26th July : 19,748.19

SENSEX MOVEMENTS

TATA STEEL -FPO

• ALLOTED 83,25000 SHARES TO ANCHOR INVESTORS @ Rs.610 IN Jan.11

• 17 ALLOTEES

NAME OF INSTITUTION NO. OF SHARES

FID FUNDS(MARS) 3,20,620

NOMURA (MARS) 2,56,500

MACQUARIE BANK 1,92,370

CREDIT SUISSE(SING) 1,60,310

MONETARY AUTHO(SING) 1,68,360

GOVT.OF SINGAPORE 3,81,480

MORGAN STANLY (MARS) 4,55,290

BAJAJ ALIANCE LIC 6,41,250

AANJANEYA LIFE CARE

LTD

JUNE 12 52.4%

SEPT 1287.70%

DEC.12 94.40%

PLEDGE OF PROMOTER’S STAKE

COAL INDIA LISTING LISTED ON 4/11/10 ISSUED @Rs.245 P.S.

BROKERAGE PRICE EXPECTEDAMBIT CAPITA Rs.300

CLSA Rs.309-324HDFC SECURITIES Rs.305J M FINANCIALS Rs.290

I I F L Rs.286-345

MOTILAL OSWAL Rs.325

EDELWISS Rs.316

ACTUALS Rs.287.45 .TO 344.75

• TTK PRESTIGE: CALLS BY

BROKING FIRM RECOMMEND

CLSA SELL

ESPIRITO SANTO NEUTRAL

JEFFRIES BUY

KARVY STOCK BROKING SELL

AMBIT CAPITAL BUY

ELARA SECURITIES REDUCE

J M FINANCIALS HOLD

IDBI CAPITAL REDUCE

Source; ET Dtd 16th OCT

• BROKERAGESACTION TARGET PRICE

DOWNGRADE Rs.3,000

DOWNGRADE 3,500

MAINTAIN 3,981

DOWNGRADE 2,507

MAINTAIN 4,020

DOWNGRADE 3,120

DOWNGRADE 3,176

DOWNGRADE 3,019

WHO IS RIGHT

HIND.UNILEVER LTD: CALLS BY

BROKERAGE FIRMS

KOTAK SECURITIES

AMBIT CAPITAL

STANDARD CHARTERED

AXIS CAPITAL

NOMURA

JP MORGAN

MOTILAL OSWAL

PHILLIPS SECURTIES

IIFL

CREDIT SUISSE

• BROKERAGESRECOMMEND TARGET PRICE

REDUCE 530.00

SELL 503.00

IN LINE 547.00

SELL 504.00

REDUCE 535.00

NEUTRAL 550.00

NEUTRAL 500.00

SELL 507.00

REDUCE 507.00

REDUCE 541.00

SOURCE: ET dtd---: 17/07/13

WHO IS RIGHT

DIVESTMENT DAMAGENAME OF COMPANY ISSUE RATE CURRENT MP

Hind. Copper (2012) 155.00 56.10

N M D C 148.50 104.20

SAIL 63.00 43.65

NTPC 145.00 141.25

NALCO 40.00 29.20

RCF 45.00 30.25

OIL INDIA 520.00 533.05

MMTC 60.00 48.75

HIND COPPER (2013) 70.00 56.10

LICs INVESTMENTS AS ON 31ST MAR 2013

NAME OF THE COMPANY % OF HOLDING

CORPORATION BANK 24.69%

LARSEN & TOUBRO 16.45%

TATA STEEL 14.98%

SHIPPING CORPORATION 14.13%

TATA POWER 12.90%

ITC 12.17%

HINDALCO 10.93%

KESORAM INDUSTRIES 10.90%

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA 10.62%

GITANJALI GEMS 4.89% (30TH June 2013)

M M T C MOVEMENTS 6 MONTHS CHART

Rs.48.75

MMTC – 1 MONTH GRAPH(28TH MAR 13)

GOVT. 99.33% , DIIs 0.5% , OTHERS 0.17%

GITANJALI GEMS 3Months chart

CANARA BANK 6 MONTS CHART

HIGH: 550 (14TH Jan 13) LOW: 261(26TH Jul.13)

Rs.269.10

TITAN INDUSTRIES 3MONTHS CHART

APOLLO TYRES LTD 3 MONTHS

Rs.68.30

KARNATAKA BANK PRICE MOVEMENT IN BSE ON 21ST JUNE 2013

AANJANEYA LIFECARE 1YEAR

ZYLOG SYSTEMS LTD 1YEAR

WEALTH DESTROYERS KOUTONS RETAIL SKS MICROFINANCE GTL & GTL INFRA KEMROCK INDUSTRIES CROMPTON GREAVES ZYLOG SYSTEMS CORE EDUCATION

TECHNOLOGIES WELSPUN CORP OPTO CIRCUITS BILCARE AANJANEYA LIFECARE GITANJALI GEMS

SIP INVESTMENTS IN EQUITY

YEAR EQUITY DEBT TOTAL

2008-09 + 6,985 +81,803 88,787

2009-10 - 10,512 +1,80.588 1,70,076

2010-11 - 19,802 +2,49,153 2,29,352

2011-12 - 1,358 +3,34.820 3,33,463

2012-13 - 22,749 +4,73,460 4,50,711

APRIL 13 -1,423 +51,822 50.432

MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS (IN RS. CRORES)

ALL TIME HIGH RATES OF REAL ESTATE COMPANIES ON 26/07/13

• COMPANY DATE RATE NOWDLF 15/01/08 1,225 172.05UNITECH 02/01/08 547 17.95HDIL 10/01/08 1,114 37.45INDIA BULL REAL ESTATE 08/01/08 848 68.35ACKRUTI CITY(HUB TOWN) 19/03/09 2,364 138.35SHOBHA DEVELOP 20/12/06 1,179 295.15PARSVANATH DEVE 07/01/08 299 29.45OMAXE 13/12/07 613 141.10PURVANKARA 13/12/07 535 75.30

CHANGES- COMPARISION EARLIER -- NO MARKET REGULATOR, MINDS

WERE SELF REGULATED. NOW -- MARKETS ARE FULLY

REGULATED, MINDS TO BE

REGULATED.

EARLIER --RUPEE WAS COSTLIER, ASSETS WERE CHEEPER.

NOW -- RUPEE IS CHEEPER, ASSETS ARE COSTLIER.

• TIPS & NEWS FROM SMS, • FOCUS ON TOPLINE LINKED TO BOTTOM

LINE.• THINK BEFORE YIELDING TO UNLIMITED

TURNOVER FACILITY WITH A LIMITED FEES

• AVOID TEMPTATION BASED ON HIGH TURNOVER IN SCRIPS.

Assess the market Price behavior • Combine fundamental and technical

analysis• Develop sound strategies for growth

stocks• Beware of operators’ game play• Take Swift corrective action i.e. keep

stop loss • Take disciplined decision

• SHORT TERM, i.e. within one year,

profits are taxed @ 15% FROM 2008-09

• LONG TERM, i.e. held for more than one year, there is no tax on the profits.

• Dividends are totally tax free.• Trading profits are taxed as normal

income at the applicable slab.

TAXATION

SUCCESS MANTRA

TO BE

SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR

THINK PROFIT

IN TUNE WITH

DHIRUBAI AMBANI MANTRA

THINK BIG

SUCCESS MANTRA

• SHARE BUSINESS PROFIT = E F E P • = ENTRY ON FUNDAMENTALS• EXIT FOR PROFIT

(NO CONDITIONS

APPLY)

MONEY MAKING EQUATION

• Internet – • www.sebi.gov.in

• www.bseindia.com & www.nseindia.com• www.nsdl.com & • www.bgse.co.in & www.bfsl.co.in

• Companies websites• Company reports-

• Offer documents/ Prospectus • Annual/Half yearly/Quarterly reports

• Stock Exchange’s Information centre• Broker’s Offices & Media- Print and Electronic

SOURCES OF INFORMATION