Welcome to our repository EPIC | EPIC - Summary of ...(Polar Predic4on Program - Societal and...

Summaryoffindings

Surveysmadeonuserneedsforseaiceobserva4onsandforecasts

WinfriedHokePolarPredic4onProject,Interna4onalCoordina4onOffice,

AlfredWegenerIns4tute,Germany

forthePPP-SERAcommiGeemee4ng(PolarPredic4onProgram-SocietalandEconomicResearchandApplica4ons)

on18-22April2016,Christchurch,NewZealand

TableofContents•  Mo4va4on•  Surveys–  1ICEMON–  2ACCESS/SIDARUS–  3EUMETSAT–  4COMNAP–  5Alaska/Canada

•  Ques4ons•  Outcomes•  Summary,Outcomes,nextsteps

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TableofContents

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•  Mo4va4on•  Surveys•  Ques4ons•  Outcomes– ACCESS/SIDARUS–  EUMETSAT–  COMNAP

•  Summary,Outcomes,nextsteps•  1IC EMON •  5Alaska/Canada

Mo4va4on

•  WMO-baseddocumentwithinforma4ontoallna4onalweatherservices(nosurveys)– Updatenecessary

•  Improvena4onalservices•  Overviewofservices

(public,private,e.g.IceBreakerNet)

•  Standardsforobserva4onsanddata

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Summary

No. name 4me n

hemisph

ere(N/S) interviewedpar4es data

ques4onnaireavailable

1 ICEMAR 2002? ? N

navigation,oil/gasindustry,designofships,environmt/weather/iceserviceandresearch;on+offshore

SIC,SIT,type,dria,deforma4on no

2ACCESS/SIDARUS 2011 18 N+S

Marinesafety(13),Marineandcoastalenvironment(3),Climateandseasonalforecas4ng(2)-privat&organisa4ons

seaiceandweatherinfo/detail/downloadmedia/ yes

3EUMET-SAT 2012 91 N+S

Oceanography,numericalweatherpredic4ons,seasonal+oceanforecas4ng,climate,treatyverifica4on

SIC,SIT,type,dria,meltpondfrac4on,albedo,temp,salinity yes

4COM-NAP 2015 18 S

ManagersofNa4onalAntarc4cPrograms(Modelling,science,organisa4onallevel)

wind,horizontalvisibility,precipita4on,temperature,seastateandseaice yes

5 ACCAP 2014 263 AKemaillistsprovidedbyACCAP(mostlyadministra4veandsciencerespondants)

feedbackonthreeinfoanddataservices yes

6 AOOS 2013 108 AK? actorsinvolvedwithseaiceinforma4on??useofseaiceservicesinUSAandAlaska yes

7 IN-SII 2015? 10 CA industryneeds,shippingneedsofseaiceusers('Trafficability') some

1:ICEMON

•  Firstofsimilarsurveys•  BasisforACCESS/SIDARUS

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2:SIDARUS/ACCESS

•  SIDARUSincoopera4onwithACCESSandWMOEC-P(H)ORS

•  toiden4fy,analyseandassesstherequirementsforseaicedataspecifiedbytheseaiceusercommunity

•  WPs(e.g.userinterac4on,satellitedata,albedo,SAR,SIT)

•  SIDARUS=SeaIceDownstreamServicesforArc4candAntarc4cUsersandStakeholders•  ACCESS=Arc4cClimateChangeEconomyandSociety•  Execu4veCouncilPanelofExpertsonPolarandHighMountainObserva4ons,ResearchandService

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3:EUMETSAT

•  Coopera4onwithESA•  Todetermineuserrequirementsforusers(globalandcoastaloceanography,numericalweatherpredic4ons,weathernow-&forecas4ng,climatemonitoring/-change

•  FocusonErrorCharacterisa4on–  (bias,precision,stability)

•  FocusondefiningEssen4alClimateVariables

•  ESA=EuropeanSpaceAgency

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4:COMNAP

•  BasedhereinChch•  Focusonorganisa4onalandscien4ficorganisa4ons

•  Longestques4onnaire(marineoperatorsandweatherservice)

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5:AlaskaandCanada•  Threereports/documents•  AK:ACCAPClimateandWeatherResourcesSurvey

–  AlaskaClimateDispatch–  AlaskaClimateandWeatherHightlights–  HistoricalSeaIceAtlasuser–  Informa4onincomplete;individualfeedback

•  CA:AlaskaOceanObservingSystem–  AccessingandUsingSeaIceInforma4on

•  CA:Industryneedsforseasonalandsub-seasonalseaiceinforma4onandpredic4ons–  Trafficability,iceclimateis“onepieceofthepuzzleinplanning”

•  ACCAP-AlaskaCenterforClimateAssessmentandPolicy(NOAA)

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Ques4ons(1/3)

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Ques4onsICEMON

SIDARUS

EUMETSAT

COMNAP

SeaIceQues*ons ? Howdoesyourorganisa4onuseseaiceinforma4on x xInterestedinwhatareasofseaiceinforma4onprovision x xInterestedinwhichgeographicalareas x x xWhattypesofseaiceinforma4onaremostuseful x x* xWhattypesofcomplementaryenvironmentalparametersmostuseful(seaiceinforma4on) x xWhat4meofyeardoesyourorganisa4onoperateinAntarc4cwaters xHowoaenwouldyoulikeseaiceinforma4onupdated x xHowspa4allydetailedshouldbetheseaiceinforma4on x x x**What4meperiodoftac4calandopera4onaliceforecast(short-term)informa4onismostusefulforopera4onalplanning x xRequirementforlong-termpredic4ons,i.e.ontheeffectofclimatechange x xWhat4meperiodofhistoricalseaiceinforma4onwouldbeuseful x x* xHowwouldyouprefertheinforma4onbedelivered x xWhatistheidealfiledeliverysizeofproductinforma4on(bandwidth/formats) x x

Ques4ons(2/3)

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Ques4onsICEMON

SIDARUS

EUMETSAT

COMNAP

OceanWeatherQues*ons ?

HowdoyouuseOceanWeatherinforma4on(tac4cal/opera4onal/strategical) x x

..andimpactofoceaninforma4on(waves,currents,sealevel,temperatureetc)onyourbusiness x x

Doyoureceiveweatherandoceaninforma4onandwhichareuseful x x

Howspa4allydetailedshouldbetheatmosphericweatherinforma4on;oceaninforma4on x x

What4meperiodoftac4calandopera4onalweatherforecast;oceanographicforecastinforma4onisuseful x x

Medium-termforecastsassocia4onwiththeiruncertaintyisuseful x

Whattypeofweathersensi4veac4vitydoesyouorganisa4onundertake x

Ques4ons(3/3)

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Ques4onsICEMON

SIDARUS

EUMETSAT

COMNAP

Wheredoyougetweatherinforma4onfrom(serviceproviders,websites) x

Howisinforma4onprovided(Filesize;communca4onmode;opera4on24h?) x

Wouldyouorganisa4onbenefitfromaweatherserviceprovidedfromAntarc4ca x

Listforecastsusedandusefulnessoftheirelements x

Ques*onsfromtheEUMETSATsurvey ?

Whatisyourworktask(s)whereyouneedseaicedata x

Whatisyourrequirementforerrorcharacterisa4on:Bias,Precision,Stability(seaiceconcentra4on) x

Seaicethickness(regions;spa4alresolu4on;temporalcoverage;other) x

*=ques4onsimilar**=ques4oninlessdetail

ResultsSIDARUS/ACCESS•  usersofseaicechartsrequireasmuchinforma4onon

differentparametersaspossiblewiththebestdetailavailable,…madeavailabletothemasoaenaspossible

•  Users:now-andforecast,e.g.onceadayseaicewith0,1-1kmresolu4on

•  Forecasters:satimageforvalida4on&verifica4on;missinge.g.high-reslong-termobserva4onsinkeyregions

•  DataproductsasoutcomeofwholeSIDARUS,hostedbyindividualorganisa4ons

•  Challengemen4oned:‘hardtogetintouch’withusersfordissemina4onandcoopera4on,duetolimited4me/resourcestotraveltoaworkshop

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ResultsEUMETSAT•  Ideaofuncertaintynotalwaysclearorbasedonintui4on(ErrorCharacterisa4on)

•  SICdaily;‘musthave’10-20km,ideal<10km–  SITsimilar

•  Icedria,icevolume,snowcover,meltpondfrac4on,albedo,surfacetemperature,seaicesalinity(<20km)

•  “DemandforseaicedataismuchlargerthanthebasicECVparametersdefinedbyGCOS(iceconcentra4on,icethickness).Thereisthereforeasignificantuserpoten4alfornewsatellitederivedproductsforseaice.”*

•  GCOS-WMO’sGlobalClimateObservingSystem•  *ESA-UserRequirementDocument-2012-06-01-(SIDARUS)SICCIURD(D1.1)Issue1.0.pdf

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EUMETSAT-SeaIceClimateChangeIni4a4ve:Phase1-UserRequirementDocument(URD)2012-06-01-(SIDARUS)SICCIURD(D1.1)

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ResultsEUMETSAT•  Ideaofuncertaintynotalwaysclearorbasedonintui4on(ErrorCharacterisa4on)

•  SICdaily;‘musthave’10-20km,ideal<10km–  SITsimilar

•  Icedria,icevolume,snowcover,meltpondfrac4on,albedo,surfacetemperature,seaicesalinity(<20km)

•  “DemandforseaicedataismuchlargerthanthebasicECVparametersdefinedbyGCOS(iceconcentra4on,icethickness).Thereisthereforeasignificantuserpoten4alfornewsatellitederivedproductsforseaice.”*

•  GCOS-WMO’sGlobalClimateObservingSystem•  *ESA-UserRequirementDocument-2012-06-01-(SIDARUS)SICCIURD(D1.1)Issue1.0.pdf

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ResultsCOMNAP•  Seastateandseaiceasmainforecastelementsondailytosub-

dailyupdatesareimpera4veforreducingcostsandrisks•  Na4onalAntarc4cIceServices

–  Small(na4onal)groupofusers–  Na4onalàdiscon4nui4es(experiencedstaffneeded)–  IAATO“relylessonNa4onalweatherservices,preferringinsteadto

usefreeinternetsitesandshipbasedvisualisa4onsofrawmodelweatherdata”

•  Authorssuggestthat“servicecapacitybebuiltupattheNa4onalandInterna4onallevelthroughco-investment,commercialdevelopmentandimprovedcoordina4ontominimiseduplica4onofeffortandmaximiseonskillandresourcesharing.”

•  State-of-Playandcollabora4onbetweenscienceandoperators•  IICWG

•  IAATO-Interna4onalAssocia4onofAntarc4caTourOperators•  Interna4onalIceChartWorkingGroup

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Summary,Outcomes,nextsteps(1/2)

•  Surveyshavedifferentscopesandfoci–difficulttocompare

•  „datashouldbeavailableasdetailedandoaenaspossible”àpriori4sa4on?(IICWG)

•  “thatservicecapacitybebuiltupattheNa4onalandInterna4onallevelthroughco-investment,commercialdevelopmentandimprovedcoordina4ontominimiseduplica4onofeffortandmaximiseonskillandresourcesharing”(COMNAP)

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Summary,Outcomes,nextsteps(2/2)

•  Exploitavailableinforma4onàefficiency– “Butwhenareyougoingtoactonourinforma4onneedsfromlastsurvey??”

•  Bridgenaturalscience(modellingetc.)withsocial/appliedsciences(SERAetc.,TK,etc.)

•  Wherearegaps?– Whichgaps?Who?– RoleofSERA+

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Thankyou

21Alfred-Wegener-Ins*tut/MarioHoppmann(CC-BY4.0)

SIDARUS-D1.1:Userrequirementreviewdocumentsubmissiondate:08.07.2011

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SIDARUS-D1.1:Userrequirementreviewdocumentsubmissiondate:08.07.2011

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SIDARUS-2011-07-06-SIDARUS-D10-21_Disemina4onanduseplan_V0_1.pdf 28

COMNAP-WorkshopReport,COMNAPSeaIceChallengesWorkshop,Hobart,Tasmania,Australia,12-13May2015(2015-10-12-COMNAP_Sea_Ice_Challenges_BKLT.pdf)

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