Welcome and Overview CARBOOCEAN

(30 minutes)

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”

5th Annual & Final Meeting – Solstrand Hotel Norway 5-9 October 2009

EU Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN – Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment, 35 partners, 50 groups, Europe, Morocco, USA, Canada, IOC/IOCCP, 2005-2009

www.carboocean.org

Overall goal and mission

CARBOOCEAN IP (= CarboOcean Integrated Project) aims at an accurate scientific as-sessment of the marine carbon sources and sinks within space and time. It focuses on the Atlantic and Southern Oceans and a time interval of -200 to +200 years from now.

CARBOOCEAN determines the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important manageable driving agent for climate change.

CARBOOCEAN creates scientific knowledge, which is essential to a quantitative risk/uncertainty judgement on the expected consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on this judgement, it will be possible to guide the development of appropriate mitigation actions, such as management of CO2 emission reductions within a global context (e.g., Kyoto Protocol, United Nations, 1997; post-Kyoto negotiations).

CARBOOCEAN combines the key European experts and scientific resources in the field through an integrated research effort.

Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IPGuiding sustainable

development management

CO2

emissionsObjective 5:Prediction, future assessment

Initial conditions

Objective 1: Short-term assessment

System dynamics Boundary conditions

Objective 3:Assessment of

Regional EuropeanContribution

Objective 2:Long term

assessment

Objective 4:Assessment of

feedbacks

Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange

Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes

Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales

Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks

Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks

Over-arching activity: Prediction

Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment

Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment

Final W

orkshop

Kick-O

ff Meeting

MonthPhase:

0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and

Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment

Description

Expression of Interest:

PI meeting (ca. 20 persons) in Amsterdam April 2002

EoI ”MARCASSA” June 2002

Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment

this is a „marcassin“ (French)

Bergen October 2003 submission of stage 1 proposal among 30 out of 300 proposals

Paris January 2004 writing meeting with core theme leaders

Bergen February 2004 submission of stage 2 proposal no. 4 out of 30/300

July 2004 – start of negotiations

January 1, 2005 – start of CARBOOCEAN

Travel effort for proposal preparation:

Ca. 130 x 1000 EUR = 130,000 EUR expenses

+ equiv. 1 person year 90,000 EUR

Person effort for proposal preparation:

min. 1.5 person year for 130,000 EUR

Meeting costs, advisor costs:

50,000 EUR

400,000 EUR costs invested only for the writing and negotiation of the proposal.

Results beyond the state of the art – a selection:

Air-sea carbon fluxes are regionally considerably more variable as previously thought.

A North Atlantic carbon observing system has been built up which delivers high accuracy basin-wide air-sea CO2 flux measurements

In considerable areas of the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean the surface CO2 partial pressure has increased faster than that in the atmosphere – this potential decrease in CO2 sink must be observed further

The pH value of seawater is sinking (time series measurements, surface and deep). Model results show consequences of ocean acidification at the ocean floor. Mesocosm experiments show the reaction of ecosystems for sinking pH.

Cutting edge global surface ocean CO2 (most comprehensive in the world!) and Atlantic 3-D carbon data syntheses have been carried out with international colleagues.

Future scenarios on show that the carbon cycle re-enforces climate change (positive feedback). Emission targets need to be adjusted accordingly.

SOCAT – Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas

Data worth > 20 million Euros can be used to it’s full potentialData worth > 20 million Euros can be used to it’s full potential

SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation of the ocean CO2 sink and it’s variability

SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation of the ocean CO2 sink and it’s variability

International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP

All data is available in the same format for the first time which is essential for science related to climate research!All data is available in the same format for the first time which is essential for science related to climate research!

Quality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technologyQuality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technology

World largest CO2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years> 7,5 million CO2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements

World largest CO2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years> 7,5 million CO2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements

Core theme 1 - North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange on a seasonal-to-interannualscale

CARINA - Carbon dioxide in the Atlantic Ocean

Will allow for improved estimates of ocean carbon inventory and transport

Will allow for improved estimates of ocean carbon inventory and transport

Data rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients dataData rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients data

Collaborative effort between US and EUROPECollaborative effort between US and EUROPE

Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises with approx. 16.000 stations)Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises with approx. 16.000 stations)

Data with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescuedData with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescued

Core theme 2 - Detection of decadal-to-centennial ocean carbon inventorychanges

Core theme 3 - Carbon uptake and release at European regional scale

Huertas et al. (2009)

Core theme 4 - Biogeochemical feedbacks on the oceanic carbon sink

Heinze, pers. Communication (talked to myself…)

Core theme 5 - Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks

Tjiputra, Assmann, Bentsen et al.

CarboOcean‘s and CarboEurope‘s outreach project „CarboSchools“

Experimentation projects Processing scientific data Field trips and expeditions Observation and measurements

Publications

• 1. Educ. booklet:What we have learned, What we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change

•2. Educ. booklet:What we have learned, what we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change

•3. Educ. booklet:in prep.

• CarboSchools regional operators’ handbook

•Teacher/scientist partnership guide

Online resources

CarboSchools website:www.carboschools.org

- materials - publications - SchoolCO2web

• Regional websites (native languages)

60 European schools, 65 projects, 1450 pupils, x teachers, x scientists…

Volbers et al.

EU publication

Joint effort of marine and terrestrial carbon research community

http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=PUBL_LIB_FP6&ACTION=D&DOC=1&CAT=PUBL&QUERY=0120470ebee7:cc11:5add4443&RCN=200910237

CarboOcean Info-film

Univisjon and many helping hands

So – what is the importance of all this?

Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm

Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm

15 μm

4.3 μm

7.2 μm

(Barrett, 2005)

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.22.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux

(Pg

C y-1

)Si

nkSo

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Anthropogenic forcing

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.22.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux

(Pg

C y-1

)Si

nkSo

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Anthropogenic forcing

Variability ranges??

Anthropogenic forcing

Raupach et al., 2007, PNAS, additions by P.Canadell

20062005

CO2 is most important and managable agent of human induced climate change:

”How much CO2 is leaving the atmosphere where and when?” ”What is going to happen – what forcing?” ”Not leaving the world view to others!”

 

Water column inventory of man made CO2

for year 1994

mole m-2

Sabine et al., Science, 2004

Integrated CO2 uptake: 1750-1994, ca. 50% of human-produced emissions

Annual CO2 uptake at present: 25% of human-produced emissions ONLY!

 

Water column inventory of man made CO2

for year 1994

mole m-2

Sabine et al., Science, 2004

Watson, Schuster et al., UEA

The ocean carbon sink is regionally more variable than previously thought!

Schuster et al. (2009) DSR II

Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean!

obs. atm. CO2 + ocean impulse response uptake

constant 1967 forcingdaily NCEP forcing

From:LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change

Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !

TCO2 from a model (HAMOOC4)

Pre-industrial 1990 2004

Atlantic Ocean

The actual TCO2 and the anthropogenic TCO2 have completely different patterns. Only the ”actual” can readily be observed. Oceanic antropogenic CO2 is tiny on huge background.

Figure 7.3

IPCC AR4, ch. 7, modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a

Challenge: the net fluxes are also tiny on background of huge gross fluxes

WHAT TO DO NEXT?

Key processes – identification & quantification

Sustained observations – follow the non-steady state

Calibrated models – train models with memory of the past and present

Tell policy makers the most feasible pathway for mitigation

Apollo 17, NASA

Odum‘s analogue: space ship Earth