Weekly Market Update 2-3-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa2-3-16.pdf · Companies cutting or...

1

Weekly Market Update 2-3-16

©2016·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.

Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

3

1

ThebiggestnewsthisweekisonceagainoutofJapan.AsI’venotedrecently,JapanisTHEgloballeaderforCentralBankpolicy.TheUSFederalReservelauncheditsfirstQEprogramin2008.TheEuropeanCentralBanklauncheditsfirstQEprogramin2015.TheBankofJapanfirstlaunchedQEbackin2001.Inshort,theBankofJapanhastwodecadesofexperiencewithQEANDZIRP.IthaslaunchedthesinglelargestQEprograminhistory(anamountequaltoover20%ofJapan’sGDP).Andithasexpandeditsbalancesheettoover65%ofJapan’sGDP.JapanfinallyimplementedNegativeInterestRatePolicyorNIRPlastFriday.Firstandforemost,Iwanttoassessthatthemarketsbarelyreactedtothis.TheNikkeispikedforroughly30minutesbeforeretractingALLofitsgains.

MycontactstellmethattherewasagreatdealofpressurefromtheBankofJapanonvariousinstitutionstobuystockswhenthisrallyfailed.Thus,itwasonlybygreatmanipulationandfocusedbuyingwasarallysustained.Let’sthinkaboutthisforamoment.TheBankofJapanimplementedNIRPforthefirsttimeinhistory.TheNikkeionlyralliedfor30minutesonthenews.AndittookactivebuyingfromJapan’splungeprotectionteamtostopacollapse.

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 2-3-16

4

2

ThisstronglysuggeststhatJapanhasreachedthepointatwhichaggressivemonetarypolicynolongerhasanysubstantiveeffect.ThisseemstobeconfirmedbythefactthatdespitethestrongbounceonFridayandMonday,theNikkeihaserasedALLofitsNIRPgainsalreadyandisdownover1%.

AGAIN,JapanappearstohavereachedthepointatwhichadditionalmonetaryactionFAILStogenerateanypositiveeffects.Moreover,theunintendedNEGATIVEconsequencesofthismovearealreadyhittingJapan.

TheplannedMarchsaleof10-yearJapanesegovernmentbondsthroughbankstoretailinvestors,municipalitiesandotherswillbecanceledamidexpectedbelow-zeroyieldsfollowingtheBankofJapan’srecentmovetoadoptnegativeinterestrates.TheMinistryofFinanceisexpectedtoannounceWednesdaythefirst-everdecisiontocalloffsalesof10-yearJGBs.http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Tokyo-Market/Sales-to-individuals-to-be-called-off-over-negative-yields

5

3

Thisisanincrediblesituation.InEurope,threeNIRPcutshaveforcedbondshigher(yieldslower)withoutresultinginsignificantbondmarketdislocations(canceledauctionsetc.).Spain’s10-yearcontinuestotrenddownward.

DittoforItaly.

6

4

However,inJapan,thefirstNIRPcuthasalreadyresultedinamajorbondauctionbeingcanceledduetolackofinterest.IsuspectthisisbecauseJapanismuchfartherdownthemonetaryinterventionrabbitholethanEurope.Regardless,thesituationinJapanNEEDStobemonitoredclosely.WegetasenseofjusthowdesperatetheBankofJapanhasbecomeinthattheBank’shead,HaruhikoKuroda,emergedjustTHREEDaysafterimplementingNIRPtosuggest:

1) TheBankofJapancouldengageevendeeperNIRPcuts.2) Thereis“nolimittomonetaryeasing”theBankofJapancanemploy.

So…theBankofJapanlaunchesNIRPforthefirsttimeinitshistory.AndwithinTHREEtradingdaysisalreadypromisingtodoMORE,goingsofarastosaythatithas“nolimit”onwhatitwilltry.ThisiswhatitlookslikewhenaCentralBanklosescontrol=totaldesperationOncetheNikkeicollapsesbelowthegreenline,thingswillreallybegintogetinteresting.

InEurope,whilebondyieldscontinuetofall,thebanksareabsolutelyimploding.We’recreatinganewportfoliofocusedexclusivelyonthistrend.

7

5

DeutscheBanks(DB)isonitswaytoZERO.

ActiontoTake:ShortDeutscheBanks(DB)Santander(SAN)isgoingtoZEROaswell.

8

6

ActiontoTake:ShortSantander(SAN)Finally,let’smoveontotheUS.OneofourdominantthemesinPrivateWealthAdvisoryisthattheUSenteredarecessioninmid-2015.Bywayofintro,wehavetoask:justwhatcausesarecession?Theanswerisactuallysimplerthanonewouldthink:recessionsarecausedbysubstantialdropsinbusinessinvestment.Indeed,asthebelowchartfromSocieteGeneralshows,wheneverbusinessinvestmentdropsbelow0%inYear-Over-Yeargrowth,GDPcollapsessoonafter.

9

7

Thelogichereissimple…businessescreatejobs.Whenbusinessinvestmentgrows(we’retalkingaboutorganicexpansionandhiring,NOTbuyinganothercompanyandlayingoffstafftoimprovesales),thebusinessisexpandingandpeoplearebeinghired.Whenbusinessinvestmentdropstheeconomysoonfollowssuit.Asyoucanseeinthechartabove,we’venothadadropbelow0%since2009.ThisislargelybecausebusinesseshavebeentakingadvantageoflowinterestratestoSpend!Spend!Spend!However,thiseraisnowending…AsI’venotedpreviouslybothcorporaterevenuesandcorporateprofitsarerollingover.Indeed,forQ42015,theblendedearningsdeclinewas-5.8%;theblendedrevenuedeclineforQ42015was-3.5%.Salesleadcorporateinvestment,whichinturnleadsthebusinesscycle.Inthesimplestofterms,companiescannotinvestingrowingtheirbusinessifsalesarenotcominginthroughthedoor.Theycanofcourseissuedebttoraisefundsforinvestment,butasI’venotedpreviously,mostcorporatedebtofferingsaregoingtowardsbuybacksanddividends,NOTinvesting,Well,corporatesalesarerollingoversharply.Asaresultcompaniesarenowactivelycuttingtheirinvestment/capitalexpenditures.

10

8

Companiescuttingorflat-liningtheircapitalexpendituresin2016outpacethosethatsaytheywillincreasespendingbyafactorofmorethantwotoone,accordingtoaReutersanalysis.Companiesinindustriesasdiverse–andrelativelystrong–ashealthcare,consumergoodsandrestaurantsareamongthosetighteningtheirbeltsinyetanothersignthateconomicgrowthin2016maybeanemic.https://ca.news.yahoo.com/fearing-lean-times-u-companies-tighten-purse-strings-063332690–sector.html

TheUSisinarecession.Ithasbeeninanindustrialrecessionformonths.Itenteredaservicesrecessionlikelyattheendof2015.Movingontothemarkets.TheS&P500hitmytarget.Ithassincebeenrejected.AsIwritethis,stocksarebouncinghardduetoaverbalinterventionfromNYFedPresidentWilliamDudley.However,unlesstheS&P500cancleartheblueline,we’regoingDOWN.

Onamonthlyscale,stockshaveuntiltheendofMarchtohitnewhighs(above2,100)orthe

11

9

bullmarketisdefinitivelyOVER.

Onadifferentnote,GoldisatTHElinetobreakbackintothewedgepatternthatdeterminedtradingforthreeyears.IfwebreakbackintothispatterntheoddsgreatlyincreasethatthenextMAJORlegupisbeginning.

12

10

Finally,IwanttoassessourcrashtradesEEV,FXP,andBZQ.Obviouslywewereearlyonthesepositions,however,thetechnicalallpointtonewlows.EEM’sbounceisover.It’snowinthe2008-collapsegap.

13

11

It’sthesamestoryforFXI…

ForEWZ,we’vealreadytakenoutthe2008lows,whichwillnowactasaceiling.We’regoingtothe2003lows!

14

12

Mypointwithallofthesepositionsistoignoretheday-to-daygyrations.ThebigpicturechartsallpointDOWN.Thisconcludesthisweek’sissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Butmycurrentviewisthatwe’llseeabriefrallyin“risk”overthenextweekorsofollowedbyanotherwaveofsharpselling.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourregularweeklymarketupdate.UntilThen…

EditorPrivateWealthAdvisory

BestRegards,

15

OPEN POSITIONS

Pricesasof2/3/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends

US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $25.1615%

UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.26 -12% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $83.07 -12%


BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10

$1,120$1,141.00

2%

Silver 3/17/10

$17.50$14.67 -16%

GoldMinersETF* GDX 5/13/15 $20.78 $15.32 -12% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 1/27/16 $19.12 $20.10

5%

RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.70 26% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $66.27 -7% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $78.48 -14% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $60.27 10%

20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $127.95 11% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $11.60 -25% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $96.35 -15% SYSTEMIC RISK/ BLACK SWAN PORTFOLIO

*Avg.priceof$20.78and$14.20

16


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $385.37 $531.07 -10% Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.15 $90.73 0%

Pricesasof2/3/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends

TECH BUBBLE 2.0 PORTFOLIO

MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $56.25 -17%UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $31.27 $26.39 -16%UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $54.97 -8%UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $110.71 $83.15 -25%EU MELTDOWN PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 1/22/16 $25.89 $25.15 3%

ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 1/27/16 $12.05 $11.62 4%BarclaysPLC(SHORT) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37 $9.81 5%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

2/3/16$16.65 NEW SHORT!

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.86 NEW SHORT!

*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583

17


BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%

UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%

UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%

UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%

EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%

UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%

Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%

BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14

$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%

ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30

5/20/15 $65.27 4%

RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36

7%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

18


BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%

UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%

Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%

IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%

UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF(half)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)

SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%

LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%

AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%

UltraShortEmergingMktsETF

EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

19



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%

ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17

8/24/15 $43.82 10%

IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%

AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)

FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84

8/26/15 $132.02 9%

UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%

UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%

CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)

FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%

Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%

UltraShortSemiconductorsETF

SSG9/18/15

$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%

UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16

9/24/15 $199.00 16%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%

20



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Santander(SHORT)SAN

10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00

11/27/15 $117.38 5%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18

13%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46

9%

BancoDeChile(Short)

BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%

RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35

12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14

12/8/15 $23.767%

SpainETF(SHORT)EWP

9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%

UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF

EEV12/17/15

$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%

SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31

1/7/16 $9.57 7%

MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%

FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ

9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%

Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14

1/13/16 $30.04119%

Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73

1/13/16 $716.2169%

Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14

1/13/16 $32.4036%

Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34

1/13/16 $72.6838%

21



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%

UltraShortFinancialsSKF

9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20

5%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)

EUFN1/6/16

$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33

1/15/16$23.58 6%

MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50

1/15/16 $7.16 5%

Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79

27%

McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25

29%

Santander(SHORT)SAN

1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%

RetailETF(SHORT)XRT

1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%

Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80

1/22/16 $41.8121%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57

1/22/16 $27.9120%

EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09

20%

UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15

$48.051/22/16 $52.23

12%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16

8%

Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70

16%

Weekly Market Update 2-3-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa2-3-16.pdf · Companies cutting or...

Documents

Transcript of Weekly Market Update 2-3-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa2-3-16.pdf · Companies cutting or...