Weekly Market Update 10-12-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA10-12-16.pdf · WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE...

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1 Weekly Market Update 10-12-16 © 2016 · Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Phoenix Capital Management Inc. · All Rights Reserved.

Transcript of Weekly Market Update 10-12-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA10-12-16.pdf · WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE...

Page 1: Weekly Market Update 10-12-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA10-12-16.pdf · WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 10-12-16 . 4 2 The Fed cannot and will not stand for a strong US Dollar because it

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Weekly Market Update 10-12-16

©2016·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.

Page 2: Weekly Market Update 10-12-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA10-12-16.pdf · WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 10-12-16 . 4 2 The Fed cannot and will not stand for a strong US Dollar because it

Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

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Asyouknowfrommylastweeklyupdate,thebigitemsforthemarketsare:

1) TheECBisendingitsQEprogram.2) InflationisnowaREALproblemintheUS.

Sincelastweek,theUSDollarhasbeguntobreakoutofatrianglepattern.

Thefinancialworldhastakenthistomeanthatwe’reenteringaperiodofUSDollarstrengthbecausetheFedwillberaisingratesinNovemberorDecember.Idisagree.ArisingUSDollarisoneoftheeasiestproblemsfortheFedtoresolve.We’veseenthisthroughout2016:whenevertheUSDollarbeginstobreakabove97,theFedpostponesalltalkofhikingratesandverballyintervenestopushtheUSDollardown.

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 10-12-16

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TheFedcannotandwillnotstandforastrongUSDollarbecauseitdemolishescorporateearnings.Over47%ofcorporateprofitscomefromabroad.InthiscontextastrongUSDollarmeansweakcorporateprofits.We’venowhadsixstraightquartersofprofitcontractioncourtesyoftheUSDollarbeinginthemid-90s.TheFedisnotgoingtoletthissituationgetoutofhand.Indeed,nosoonerdidtheUSDollarbreakoutthanNYFedPresidentBillDudleyappearedtoverballyintervene.

TheFederalReservecanbe"gentle"inremovingmonetarystimulussinceU.S.inflationremainslowandtheeconomicexpansioncouldlastfiveormoreyears,oneofthemostinfluentialFedpolicymakerssaidonWednesday."We'reatapointwheretheeconomicexpansionhasplentyofroomtorun,"saidNewYorkFedPresidentWilliamDudley,echoingFedChairJanetYellen'smessagelastmonthafterthecentralbankdecidedtoleaveinterestratesunchangedatneararecordlowof0.25-0.5percent.http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/10/12/business/12reuters-usa-fed-dudley.html?src=busln&_r=0

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TheUSDollarrolledoveralmosttotheminuteofthiscommenthittingthewires.ItthendroppedagainastheFedFOMCminutesrevealedtheFedcontinuestojawboneaboutraisingratesbutwon’tact.

Again,theFedcantalkdowntheUSDollarwheneveritwants.Iwanttobeclearhere.IcontinuetobelievethattheFedwillonedaylosecontroloftheUSDollarresultinginamassivedeflationarycrisis.IsimplyDON’Tbelievethatwe’rethereyet.Thatprocessisdowntheroad.Untilthen,theREALissueforcurrencieswillbeQEprograms,NOTinterestrates.InaworldinwhichEVERYCentralBankhasratesatornearZERO,ratesdon’treallymatter.WHATMATTERSISQEPROGRAMS.ConsiderTheEuro.ThesinglebiggestmovethattookplacewasinanticipationofaQEprogram.

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SimilarlyfortheBankofJapan,thesinglebiggestdropsintheYencoincidedwithanticipationofQEprograms.

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Meanwhileratesdidalmostnothing.ThebigmovefortheEurocamefromQE.Ifrateshadmattered,thethirdandfourthNIRPcutswouldhavehadmoreimpact.

TheinsignificanceofratesinaworldofZIRPandNIRPisevenclearerinJapanwheretheBoJ’sforayintoNIRPactuallyhadtheOPPOSITEofitsintendedeffect.

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Why?BecausetheBoJdidn’tannounceanothermajorQEprogramatthesametime.Again,thebigmovesincurrenciestodaywillconsistofeithertheannouncementorendingofQEprograms.Withthatinmind,currentlytheONLYpossiblechangeinQEprogramsconcernstheECB,whichcanandlikelyWILLenditsQEprograminMarch.TheBoJ,whichiscurrentlyengagedinaQEprogram,cannotenditwithoutimplodingitsfinancialsystem.TheFed,whichisNOTengagedinaQEprogram,cannotannounceanewoneduetopoliticalconsequences(thePresidentialelection)unlessweenterafull-scalecrisis.TheECBontheotherhandISengagedinaQEprogramandWANTStoendit.InotedthefirstsignsofthistwoweeksagowhenECBPresidentMarioDraghinotonlyFAILEDtoannouncemoremonetarystimulusbutdidn’tevendiscussthepossibilityofit!InsteadheurgedEUmemberstopickuptheslackandengageinFISCALstimulus.

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TheEuropeanCentralBankleftits€1.7trillion($1.9trillion)stimulusunchangedatapolicymeetingThursday,brushingoffconcernsovereconomicshockwavesfromBritain’svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionanddisappointinginvestorsexpectingtheECBtoactagainsoon.

Thedecisiontostandpat,evenasnewforecastsshowedtheECBmissingitsinflationtargetforyears,underlineshowcentralbanksareapproachingthelimitsofwhattheycanachievewithoutsupportfromotherpolicyareas,notablygovernments.InChinaearlierthismonth,Groupof20leaderswarnedthatmonetarypolicyalonecan’tfixtheworld’seconomicills,andpledgedtoboostspendingandadoptoverhaulsaimedatboostinggrowth.Despitethat,Mr.Draghisaidpolicymakersdidn’tevendiscussfreshstimulus,andpraisedtheeffectivenessofthebank’sexistingpolicymeasures,whichincludenegativeinterestratesand€80billionamonthofbondpurchases.http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-central-bank-leaves-rates-unchanged-1473335620

Thenlastweek,wegotthefollowing:

ECB Said to Build Taper Consensus as QE Decision Time Near

TheEuropeanCentralBankwillprobablygraduallywinddownbondpurchasesbeforetheconclusionofquantitativeeasing,andmaydosoinstepsof10billioneuros($11.2billion)amonth,accordingtoeuro-zonecentral-bankofficials.Aninformalconsensushasbuiltamongpolicymakersinthepastmonththatassetbuyingwillhavetobetaperedonceadecisionistakentoendtheprogram,theofficialssaid,askingnottobeidentifiedbecausetheirdeliberationsareconfidential.Theydidn’texcludethatQEcouldstillbeextendedpastthecurrentend-dateofMarch2017atthefullpaceof80billioneuros($90billion)amonth.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/ecb-said-to-build-tapering-consensus-as-qe-decision-time-nears-itvni14p

Andthenjustthisafternoonthefollowinghitthewire:

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TheEuropeanCentralBankmaydiscusstechnicalchangestoitsasset-buyingschemenextweekbutadecisioncouldbedeferreduntilDecemberwhenthebankwillalsodecidewhethertoextendtheschemebeyondMarch,sourcesfamiliarwiththediscussionsaid.Compromiseproposalscouldincluderelaxing,onatemporaryandpartialbasis,aruleforcingtheECBtobuydebtinproportiontothesizeofeacheurozoneeconomy,thesourcesfamiliarwiththediscussionadded.ThatcouldpotentiallyreducetheECB'spurchaseofGermandebt,riskingrenewedconflictwithBerlin,whichhasalreadyarguedthattheECBissubsidizingindebtedcountries.Otherproposalsmayincludebuyingalimitedamountofbondsyieldinglessthanthedepositrate,whichtheECBcurrentlyrulesout,andbuyingabiggershareofanyindividualbondissue,thesourcesadded.

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idINKCN12C21VFolks,theECBisgoingtoendQE.It’sclearlybuildingthisnarrativeinthemediausingsurrogates.Withthatinmind,IbelievetheEurowillbemakingaMAJORmovehigherinthenext6months.TogiveyouanideaofwhatitlookslikewhenaCentralBankendsamajorQEprogram,considerthemovethatoccurredintheUSDollarwhenthemarketrealizedtheFedwouldbeendingQEinOctober2014.

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IbelievetheECB’sendingofQEinMarch2017willresultinasimilarlymassivemovewiththeEuromovingto120orso.Thecurrent“test”ofthebottomlineofthiswedgepatternfeelslikeafalsebreakout.Technicallyspeaking,theEurohasbeeninanuptrendsinceDecember2015!!!

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ThiswillcoincidewiththeUSDollarrollingovertoretesttheuppertrendline(blueline)ofthismassivewedgepatternwe’vebeenfollowinginthelastfewmonths.

ThiswillforceGoldandSilversharplyhigher.AsI’venotedpreviously,GoldessentiallytrackstheYen/USDollarpair.

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WhentheUSDollardrops,itwillpushthispairsharplyhigher.GoldandSilverwillfollow.Ibelievewe’llseeGoldatthemid-$1400sbyJanuary.

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Tothatendwerecentlyopenedpositionsinanumberofpreciousmetalsminers,specifically:

OpenPositions SymbolGoldMinersETF GDXGoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ

SilverWheaton SLWSilverStandardResources SSRI

BarrickGold ABXNewGold NGDNaturalGasTrust UNG

Feelfreetobuyanyoftheseifyouhavenotalreadydoneso.Alloftheaboveitemsarebeingdrivenbythespikehigherinyieldsaroundtheglobe.THATishowweknowQEisending:bondshavebegunadjustingtoalackofpurchases.TheyieldonUS10Year-Treasurieshasbrokenabove1.75%.Theyieldonthe10-YearJapaneseGovernmentBondisclosinginon0%.AndtheyieldonGerman10-YearBundshasbrokenabovenegativeto0.03%.

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TheseareMASSIVEmovesinthespanofafewmonths.ThesemovesaretellingusthatQEisendingandinflationiscoming.Indeed,thefiveyear,five-yearforwardinflationexpectationratehasbrokenthedownwardtrendlinethathelditbackforthreeyears.Thissignalsthemarketisbeginningtoanticipatea

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seriousriseininflation.

Movingontostocks.TheS&P500finallybrokeoutofitstrianglepatterntothedownside.We’renowexperiencingabriefbouncebeforethenetlegdownbegins.

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Mytargetforthistheultimatedownsidetothismoveissomewherearoundthe2,050.Wehavesupportat2075and2040.Butifthingsgetreallyuglywecouldseeamovetoeven1900.

Indeed,allmajorindexesarerapidlylosingmomentumwiththeS&P500,theRussell2000,andtheDowJonesIndustrialAverageallbelowtheir50-DMAs.

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Inshort,nowmorethaneverIamconvincedthattheECBwillbeendingQEinthenearfuture.ThiswillpushtheEurosharplyhigher,theUSDollarsharplylower,andunleasharapidrisein

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preciousmetalsminers,aswellasnaturalgas(werecentboughttheNaturalGasETF(UNG)whichyoucanbuynowifyouhavenoalreadydoneso).Thisistheroadmapgoingforward.Intheverynearfuture,stocksareduetodropto2,050orsoontheS&P500.Thiswillbematchedbyasharpdropinemergingmarkets.Atthatpointwewillunloadourmarkethedges.Thisconcludesthisweek’sweeklymarketupdateforPrivateWealthAdvisory.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourusualweeklymarketupdate.Untilthen,

ChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

CURRENCY PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $109.03 107.16 -2% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $64.06 -32%

RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $15.27 35% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $87.13 -3% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $10.33 -33%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/12/16Priceincludedividends

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INFLATION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10

$1,120$1,255.00

12%

Silver* 3/17/10

$16.23$17.53 8%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $12.59 -19%

GoldMinersETF GDX 10/5/16 $23.56 $23.07 1% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 10/5/16 $39.12 $38.30

2%

SilverWheaton SLW 10/5/16 $23.24 $23.05 2% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.74 $10.61

3%

BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.98 $15.83 2%

NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $4.02 $3.92 1%

NaturalGasTrust UNG 10/5/16 $8.69 $9.21 6% *Avg.priceof$17.50and$14.97

RETAILMELTDOWNPORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Amazon(SHORT) AMZN 2/25/15 $484.19 $834.00 -72% AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 $17.83 -16% Facebook(SHORT) FB 9/27/16 $128.69 $129.05 0% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 9/27/16 $113.09 $117.34 -4% *Avg.priceof$385.37and$583

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/12/16Priceincludedividends

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MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $41.76 -38% UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $24.03 $15.29 -36% UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $30.51 -49% UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $74.40 $17.96 -76% UltraShortFinancials* SKF 2/10/16 $56.82 $39.95 -30% UltraShortRussell2000ETF** TWM 2/10/16 $47.92 $29.84 -38% UltraShortS&P500ETF SDS 7/27/16 $16.60 $16.80 1% RioTinto(SHORT) RIO 8/12/16 $31.08 $32.81 -6%

*Avgpriceof$60.95and$51.69**Avgpriceof$52.94and$42.90

EU BANKING CRISIS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL

BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuropeanFinancialsETF EUFN 7/5/16 $14.86 $17.16 -15%CreditSuisses CS 7/5/16 $10.30 $13.11 -27% Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $4.13 $4.40 -7% Barclays(SHORT) BCS 7/5/16 $7.92 $8.22 -4% FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $23.73 -1% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $10.78 $10.86 -1%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/5/16Priceincludedividends

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%

UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%

UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%

UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%

EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%

UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%

Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%

BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14

$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%

ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30

5/20/15 $65.27 4%

RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36

7%

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%

UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%

Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%

IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%

UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF(half)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)

SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%

LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%

AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%

UltraShortEmergingMktsETF

EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%

ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17

8/24/15 $43.82 10%

IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%

AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)

FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84

8/26/15 $132.02 9%

UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%

UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%

CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)

FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%

Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%

UltraShortSemiconductors

SSG9/18/15

$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%

UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16

9/24/15 $199.00 16%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Santander(SHORT)SAN

10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00

11/27/15 $117.38 5%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18

13%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46

9%

BancoDeChile(Short)

BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%

RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35

12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14

12/8/15 $23.767%

SpainETF(SHORT)EWP

9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%

UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF

EEV12/17/15

$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%

SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31

1/7/16 $9.57 7%

MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%

FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ

9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%

Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14

1/13/16 $30.04119%

Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73

1/13/16 $716.2169%

Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14

1/13/16 $32.4036%

Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34

1/13/16 $72.6838%

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27

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%

UltraShortFinancialsSKF

9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20

5%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)

EUFN1/6/16

$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33

1/15/16$23.58 6%

MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50

1/15/16 $7.16 5%

Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79

27%

McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25

29%

Santander(SHORT)SAN

1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%

RetailETF(SHORT)XRT

1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%

Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80

1/22/16 $41.8121%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57

1/22/16 $27.9120%

EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09

20%

UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15

$48.051/22/16 $52.23

12%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16

8%

Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70

16%

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28

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16

$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/9/16$9.09 12%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65

2/9/16$14.95 10%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16

$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/11/16$8.64 17%

GoldMinersETF GDX5/13/15 $17.49 3/23/16 $19.03

9%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ1/27/16 $19.12 3/23/16 $26.78

40%

SilverStandardResources SSRI

4/20/16 $8.08 4/28/16 $9.0812%

DRDGOLD DRD4/20/16 $4.34 4/28/16 $4.97

15%

OilETF OIL3/17/16 $5.64 4/29/16 $6.17

9%

SugarETN SGG 4/27/16$35.79 5/12/16 $38.66

8%

DBCommoditiesETN DBC 3/17/16 $13.59 5/19/16 $14.46 6%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 5/26/16 $79.52 6/14/16 $83.50 5% SpainETF(SHORT)(otherhalf) EWP 1/22/16 $26.44 6/14/16 $25.46 4%

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29

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

NovaGold NG4/20/16 $5.95 6/24/16 $6.51

9%

GoldMinersETF GDX6/8/16 $26.36 6/24/16 $26.86

2%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ6/8/16 $40.21 6/24/16 $42.22

5%

DRDGOLD DRD6/8/16 $5.12 6/24/16 $5.47

7%

SilverStandardResources SSRI

6/8/16 $11.09 6/24/16 $12.2611%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.866/27/16

$3.61 6%

GermanyETF(SHORT) EWG 3/10/16 $24.256/27/16

$22.86 6%

USNaturalGasFund UNG6/8/16 $7.44 6/27/16 $8.11

9%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB 7/5/16

$13.45 7/6/16 $12.50 7%

Barclays(SHORT)BCS 7/5/16

$7.23 7/6/16 $6.88 5%

UltraShortOilETFSCO 7/6/16

$84.54 7/8/16 $92.52 9% Stamps.com(SHORT) STMP 5/26/16 $84.40 7/11/16 $78.31 7%

UltraShortOilETFSCO 7/20/16

$92.70 7/25/16 $102.4711%

USSteel(SHORT) X 8/12/16 $21.08 8/26/16 $19.76 6% FreeportMcMoRan(SHORT) FCX 8/12/16 $11.75 8/26/16 $10.85 8% ProSharesUltra7-10YearTreasury UST 11/26/14 $55.54 9/9/16 $62.25

14%

20+YearTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 9/9/16 $135.89 19% UltraShortOilETF SCO 8/31/16 $94.76 9/16/16 $100.04 6% DeutscheBank(SHORT) DB 7/5/16 $14.18 9/20/16 $12.66 11%

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30

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.219/27/16 $114.07

2%

Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.789/27/16 $72.16 2%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/20/16

$29.20 10/4/16 $31.80 9%

SilverJuniors(SHORT) SILJ 8/31/16 $15.3910/4/16 $14.03 9%

UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 10/5/16 $24.9515%

UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.6810/5/16 $24.00 -13%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 5/26/16

$82.75 10/5/16 $77.03 -7%