Weekly Market Review - Mashreq Bank · 2018-10-31 · Weekly Market Review May 15, 2016 – May 21,...

Weekly Market Review May 15, 2016 – May 21, 2016

May 22, 2016

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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Americas

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in Apr (vs. +0.1% in Mar) due to higher energy prices; marginally above estimates

Industrial production edged up 0.7% in Apr after falling 0.9% in Mar, led by a jump in utilities output

NAHB/Wells Fargo US Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 58 in May (vs. Apr); slightly below consensus

Conference Board’s US leading economic index inched up 0.6% in Apr after remaining unchanged in Mar

Europe

Eurozone’s trade surplus reached a 3-month high of €22.3bn in Mar as imports slid 2.7% while exports fell 1.3%

Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) slipped 0.2% YoY in Apr (vs. flat in March)

German producer prices fell 3.1% YoY in Apr (same as in Mar), clocking the biggest decline since Jan 2010

Confederation of British Industry cut 2016 & 2017 UK growth outlook to 2% (vs. +2.3% & +2.1% respectively, earlier)

Rest of the World

Japan’s 1Q16 GDP expanded 0.4% QoQ (vs. a downwardly-revised -0.4% in 4Q15); beats forecasts

Core machine orders jumped 5.5% MoM in Mar after declining 9.2% in Feb; more than forecasts

House prices in 65 out of 70 Chinese cities gained MoM in Apr; On YoY basis, prices rose in 46 out of 70 cities

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,052.32 0.28 0.41 17.48 2.21

DJI 17,500.94 -0.20 0.44 16.30 2.62

Nasdaq Comp 4,769.56 1.10 -4.75 17.74 1.35

Euro Stoxx 600 338.01 0.99 -7.60 15.50 3.74

FTSE 100 6,156.32 0.29 -1.38 16.52 4.55

Dax 9,916.02 -0.37 -7.70 12.49 3.34

CAC 40 4,353.90 0.78 -6.11 14.63 3.62

Nikkei 225 16,736.35 1.97 -12.07 16.23 1.93

Hang Seng 19,852.20 0.67 -9.41 10.77 4.34

Brazil - Bovespa

49,722.75 -4.02 14.70 13.18 3.51

Russia - Micex 1,891.33 -0.83 7.38 7.11 4.49

BSE Sensex 25,301.90 -0.74 -3.12 16.12 1.54

Shanghai Comp 2,825.48 -0.06 -20.17 12.90 2.19

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

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UAE

Drake & Scull International’s 1Q16 net profit plunged 61% YoY to AED9.8mn; revenue fell 7.2% YoY to AED1.03bn

Network International closed $350mn-equivalent, 6-year loan to finance Emerging Markets Payments’ acquisition

Moody’s Investors Service confirmed the long-term ratings of National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Union National Bank, Al Hilal Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank; assigned ‘negative’ outlook to all

DP World Ltd. launched tender offer to buy back Sukuk worth up to $750mn due to mature in 2017

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Electricity Co. signed $900mn loan deal with the Export-Import Bank of Korea and other international lenders

Moody’s downgraded long-term deposit ratings of SAMBA Financial Group, Banque Saudi Fransi, Saudi British Bank, Arab National Bank, Riyad Bank, Saudi Hollandi Bank, Saudi Investment Bank, Bank AlBilad, Bank Al-Jazira & confirmed ratings of Al Rajhi Bank & National Commercial Bank; ratings carry ‘stable’ outlook

Rest of GCC

Moody’s confirmed & downgraded Qatar National Bank’s & The Commercial Bank’s long-term deposit ratings with a ‘negative’ & ‘stable’ outlook, respectively

Capital Intelligence downgraded Oman Arab Bank’s Financial Strength Rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB+’

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 3,229.87 -3.43 2.50 9.48 4.43

Abu Dhabi 4,235.38 -3.46 -1.67 11.29 5.76

Saudi Tadawul 6,695.26 0.01 -3.13 13.83 3.69

Qatar Index 9,813.96 -1.28 -5.90 11.73 4.18

Kuwait Index 5,324.05 -1.32 -5.18 – 4.84

Oman MSM 30 5,931.00 -0.64 9.71 10.65 4.32

Bahrain All Share

1,102.56 -0.80 -9.32 – 4.94

Egypt EGX 30 7,499.49 -0.28 7.04 9.33 1.97

Istanbul 100 Index

76,357.74 -1.86 6.46 8.68 3.91

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar gained 1.4% against Japanese yen over the past five trading days as minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s Apr meeting released on May 18 indicated rate hike in Jun was firmly on the table

British pound appreciated 0.95% against US dollar in the week, led by release of robust retail sales data for Apr and growing expectations that Britons will vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum on June 23

Canadian dollar weakened 1.34% against its US counterpart from May 13 as data showed retail sales fell 1.0% in Mar, exceeding economists’ forecasts and as expectations grew that the US could raise interest rates this summer

Russian ruble depreciated 2.12% against US dollar, recording the second-biggest weekly retreat in emerging markets due to pressure on emerging markets from the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase

Indian rupee slid 1.01% against US dollar this week on persistent demand for the greenback from banks and importers amid higher crude oil prices, fall in domestic equities and prospects of the US rates increase next month

South Korean won declined 1.6% against US dollar, posting its biggest weekly loss since mid-Feb 2016 due to the concerns about an imminent interest rate hike in the US

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 95.3340 0.77 0.89 -3.34 -0.71

EUR/USD 1.1224 -0.75 -0.65 3.33 1.92

GBP/USD 1.4502 0.95 1.19 -1.59 -6.38

USD/JPY 110.1500 1.40 0.28 -8.38 -9.37

USD/CHF 0.9903 1.52 1.86 -1.18 4.96

USD/CAD 1.3113 1.34 3.62 -5.25 6.79

USD/BRL 3.5212 -0.35 -0.24 -11.10 13.80

USD/RUB 66.8371 2.12 2.56 -7.84 33.67

USD/INR 67.4463 1.01 1.85 1.95 6.18

USD/CNY 6.5490 0.26 1.25 0.85 5.67

USD/AUD 1.3846 0.65 7.92 0.90 8.37

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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US WTI & Brent crude futures gained 1.86% & 3.33%, respectively, this week as speculators raised their bets amid firming trend in Asia and as militants blew up another pipeline in African producer Nigeria

Spot gold prices lost 1.64%, recording its third straight week of loss as well as the biggest weekly slide in nearly two months on growing expectations for an increase in the US interest rates as soon as next month

Shanghai steel rebar futures plunged 11.67% over the past five trading days as rising output and seasonal weakness in demand in China, the world’s top consumer of the metal kept pressuring prices

The Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) sugar futures edged up 1.97% from May 13 as supply woes pushed prices higher after this year’s El Nino weather pattern parched fields from Thailand to India. Most of the analysts are forecasting global deficits even with a bumper crop expected from Brazil as demand is increasing in Asia

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) soybean futures rose 1.82%, recording a sixth consecutive weekly gain driven by fund buying and worries about crop damage in South America

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced 4.17% in the week ended May 20 helped by an increase in demand for Capesize vessels


Brent – ICE 48.72 1.86 6.38 30.69 -25.47

WTI – Nymex 47.75 3.33 12.01 28.91 -20.04

Gold Spot 1,252.15 -1.64 0.63 17.97 3.81

Silver Spot 16.53 -3.40 -2.56 19.27 -3.40

Copper - CMX 205.85 -0.80 -8.02 -3.58 -27.35

S&P GSCI Spot Index

367.30 1.54 4.21 17.86 -16.89

Baltic Dry Index 625.00 4.17 -6.58 30.75 6.66

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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The US government bonds fell sharply this week, sending 10-year yield 13.83 basis points (bps) higher to 1.84% after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Apr policy meeting suggested officials were giving serious consideration to a Jun interest-rate increase

German bonds posted their first week of declines in May, leading to a 4.1 bps rise in 10-year yield to 0.165% as gains in stocks and commodities reduced demand for the safest government debt amid growing talk that another hike in the US interest rates will come sooner rather than later

South Africa’s Reserve Bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 7% on May 19, leaving room for further tightening later in 2016 as it faced a policy dilemma of rising inflation and low growth

Indonesia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75% for the second straight month on May 19, signaling it is not in a hurry to adjust policy until it adopts a new framework in Aug

Bank Negara Malaysia kept the overnight policy rate at 3.25% for an 11th meeting on May 19 at the Governor Muhammad Ibrahim’s first policy meeting as chief, refraining from immediately adding stimulus to an economy that could need it in coming quarters

Chile’s central bank left the key rate at 3.5% for the fifth consecutive month on May 17, matching forecasts as inflation slowed for a 3rd consecutive month in Apr to 4.2%, nearing central bank’s targeted inflation of 2-4%


USD-10yr 1.84 8.13 2.99 -18.99 -16.05

USD-2yr 0.88 17.48 15.70 -16.36 52.93

Fed Funds Rate 0.37 0.00 0.00 85.00 208.33

USD-3m Libor 0.66 5.37 4.17 7.93 134.50

USD-6m Libor 0.96 5.35 5.73 12.91 128.48

German-10yr 0.17 33.06 -2.37 -73.77 -74.22

UK-10yr 1.45 5.52 -3.71 -25.92 -26.48

Japan-10yr -0.12 3.51 -10.61 -145.38 -128.92

AED-3m EIBOR 1.09 1.64 5.73 3.78 48.22

AED-6m EIBOR 1.33 1.86 3.09 8.53 49.61

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Brazil -4.02% -4.76%

2 Argentina -3.55% -3.20%

3 Abu Dhabi–UAE -3.46% -3.47%

4 Dubai–UAE -3.43% -3.44%

5 Russia -3.12% -3.12%

6 Colombia -2.07% -3.90%

7 Turkey -1.86% -2.29%

8 Philippine -1.85% -1.86%

9 Mongolia -1.76% -1.19%

10 Peru -1.64% -1.52%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Kazakhstan 3.92% 2.04%

2 Namibia 2.78% 0.79%

3 Greece 2.69% 1.96%

4 Nigeria 2.60% 2.60%

5 South Africa 2.01% 0.04%

6 Japan 1.97% 0.48%

7 Ireland 1.74% 1.01%

8 Pakistan 1.58% 1.50%

9 Finland 1.54% 0.81%

10 Sweden 1.47% 0.61%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru 36.24% 39.46%

2 Russia 17.97% 17.97%

3 Kazakhstan 15.65% 17.47%

4 Brazil 14.70% 28.42%

5 Colombia 14.62% 19.39%

6 Pakistan 11.81% 11.95%

7 Morocco 11.37% 13.87%

8 Namibia 10.54% 9.44%

9 Hungary 10.51% 13.92%

10 Slovakia 10.33% 13.86%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 China -20.17% -20.98%

2 Italy -16.84% -14.18%

3 Mongolia -14.82% -15.03%

4 Zambia -13.43% -6.64%

5 Japan -12.07% -4.34%

6 Ghana -10.92% -12.07%

7 Hong Kong -9.41% -9.62%

8 Bahrain -9.32% -9.29%

9 Switzerland -9.31% -8.54%

10 Romania -9.10% -6.08%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Steel Rebar -11.67%

2 Palladium -5.41%

3 Rubber -4.68%

4 Silver -3.40%

5 Coffee -3.18%

6 Palm Oil -2.96%

7 Soybean Oil -2.80%

8 Platinum -2.75%

9 Lead -2.08%

10 Live Cattle -1.92%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Bean Meal 8.78%

2 Gasoil 5.25%

3 Ethanol 4.02%

4 Lean Hogs 3.90%

5 Heat Oil 3.56%

6 WTI Crude 3.33%

7 Corn 3.27%

8 Orange Juice 3.27%

9 Gasoline 2.98%

10 Rough Rice 2.48%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Bean Meal 48.58%

2 Heat Oil 35.50%

3 Gasoil 35.10%

4 Lean Hogs 33.53%

5 Brent Crude 30.69%

6 Gasoline 29.08%

7 WTI Crude 28.91%

8 Soybeans 23.30%

9 Lumber 19.29%

10 Silver 19.27%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Natural Gas -11.77%

2 Feeder Cattle -10.95%

3 Live Cattle -10.86%

4 Cocoa -9.31%

5 Lead -6.58%

6 Nickel -3.63%

7 Copper -3.58%

8 Cotton -2.54%

9 Coffee -1.58%

10 Wheat -0.48%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

Weekly Market Review - Mashreq Bank · 2018-10-31 · Weekly Market Review May 15, 2016 – May 21,...

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Transcript of Weekly Market Review - Mashreq Bank · 2018-10-31 · Weekly Market Review May 15, 2016 – May 21,...