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ISSUE 2NFL Week 1

College Football Week 2

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

Welcome to Week 2 of the 2017-18 Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and welcome to the start of another exciting NFL season. We hope those of you were able to get a copy of last week’s college football kickoff issue and enjoyed the coverage. In this week’s issue, we will cover the kickoff of the 2017 NFL season as well as the college second week action.

At Vegas Insider, we are “The Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information”, and we feel strongly that the Vegas Insider

Football Weekly adds another notch in the belt of that title. This is our sixth full season producing what is become one of the leading tipsheet publications in the market. Hopefully you agree and have locked yourself in for a season subscription at a heavily discounted rate from our weekly cover price.

The VIFW is home to three key sets of strength ratings we’ve developed and maintained in house for several years. These are the exact same ratings that some of the best oddsmakers in the sports betting world use to help create their numbers! In last week’s college football kickoff issue, our Bettors’ Ratings were 7-3 ATS in our 10 featured games, while our Power Ratings and Effective Strength Indicators were 6-4 ATS. All of that helped lead to a 7-3 ATS Consensus Record. While on the subject of the strength indicators, we did receive some questions regarding them. Here is a briefl explanation of what each of the ratings is:

• The Power Ratings are our in-house manually adjusted ratings updated after every game• The Effective Strength Ratings are purely statistical ratings, using the teams key stats against

schedule strength and their previous opponents’ averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.

• The Bettors Ratings are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.

In this week’s issue, besides the usual tips, stats, trends and such, we also offer up some feature articles. In college, there is a piece on Teams Trending Downward Heading into 2017, as well as the continued series on College Football Stability mismatches.We also offer a special NFL Systems article, detailing unique betting angles that have performed very well in Week 1 of recent NFL seasons, taking into account lines, totals, and stats from last season.

We thank you for reading the VIFW and welcome you to become a regular subscriber by following any of the appropriately tagged ads on our web property, VegasInsider.com. While there, of course, take advantage of everything we have to offer, including daily free and premium picks, stats, editorial analysis, and more.

Good luck this weekend!

Vegas Insider Staff

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .........................................................................................2NFL VI Picks ......................................................................................................3NFL Matchups ...............................................................................................10NFL Top Weekly Trends .................................................................................13Top NFL Week 1 Historical Systems AND Qualifying Games for 2017 .....14Top Tips for Winning Early in the NFL Season .............................................17Football Line Moves .....................................................................................18College Football VI Picks .............................................................................19College Football Top Weekly Trends ..........................................................20Top 12 College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 2 .......................21College Football Matchups ........................................................................22Analyzing 2017 College Football Teams on a 3-Year Downward Trend ......42Football Betting Observations and Betting News .....................................44

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE451 KANSAS CITY 48 48 345 FRESNO ST 52 54 393 SAN DIEGO ST 60 58

P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NFL P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN2 P: 8:00PM C: 10:00PM E: 11:00PM 452 NEW ENGLAND -7 -8 346 ALABAMA -42 -44 394 ARIZONA ST -3 -4.5

347 TULANE 54.5 48 395 UTAH 1.5 47.5P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2

348 NAVY -13 -14 396 BYU 49.5 -1301 OHIO U 57 56 349 W KENTUCKY -6 -8.5 397 HOUSTON 0 -2

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPNU302 PURDUE -4 -4.5 350 ILLINOIS 61 57.5 398 ARIZONA 65.5 65.5303 OKLAHOMA ST -25 -28 351 TX-SAN ANTONIO 60.5 58.5 399 BOISE ST 61 58.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN2 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPN304 S ALABAMA 64.5 66 352 BAYLOR -16 -17 400 WASHINGTON ST -7.5 -11

353 HAWAII 65 63P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM PAC12

305 FLA ATLANTIC 57.5 57.5 354 UCLA -22 -24P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BIG10 355 C MICHIGAN 57.5 56 453 NY JETS 43 40

306 WISCONSIN -33 -32 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 307 BUFFALO 49 49 356 KANSAS -3.5 -5.5 454 BUFFALO -6 -7.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM CBSC 357 NEBRASKA 68 73.5 455 ATLANTA -7 -7308 ARMY -17 -17 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 309 W MICHIGAN 56 51.5 358 OREGON -10 -14 456 CHICAGO 50.5 50

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BIG10 359 MIAMI FL -12 -15 457 JACKSONVILLE 42 40310 MICHIGAN ST -7.5 -7.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPNU P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 311 E MICHIGAN 54 53 360 ARKANSAS ST 54.5 55.5 458 HOUSTON -4.5 -5.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BIG10 361 SAN JOSE ST 62 63 459 PHILADELPHIA 48.5 47.5312 RUTGERS -4 -5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 313 OLD DOMINION -2.5 -3.5 362 TEXAS -24 -28 460 WASHINGTON -3 0

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 363 TCU 2.5 -3 461 ARIZONA 2.5 -1.5314 MASSACHUSETTS 63 61.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 315 NORTHWESTERN 0 -3 364 ARKANSAS 59.5 58 462 DETROIT 48 47.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 365 LA LAFAYETTE 62.5 64 463 OAKLAND 51.5 51316 DUKE 53 55 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 317 SOUTH FLORIDA -17 -18 366 TULSA -16 -16 464 TENNESSEE 1.5 -2

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNN 367 MARSHALL 54 55.5 465 TAMPA BAY 3 -2.5318 CONNECTICUT 62 68 P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM ESPN3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 319 EAST CAROLINA 59.5 64 368 NC STATE -20 -24 466 MIAMI 47 41.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 2 369 TOLEDO -8 -9.5 467 BALTIMORE 42.5 42.5320 WEST VIRGINIA -20 -25 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 321 CINCINNATI 49.5 49.5 370 NEVADA 66 64.5 468 CINCINNATI -2 -3

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC 371 LA MONROE 55 54.5 469 PITTSBURGH -9.5 -9322 MICHIGAN -29 -34 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 323 LOUISVILLE -6 -10 372 FLORIDA ST -35 -33 470 CLEVELAND 47.5 46.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN 373 SOUTH CAROLINA 60.5 74.5 471 INDIANAPOLIS 47 42324 NORTH CAROLINA 61.5 63.5 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 325 CHARLOTTE 56 54 374 MISSOURI -3 -2.5 472 LA RAMS 3 -3.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 375 NORTH TEXAS 64.5 64.5 473 SEATTLE 49 50.5326 KANSAS ST -37 -36 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN3 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 327 IOWA -3 -2.5 376 SMU -14 -14 474 GREEN BAY -3 -3

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 377 AUBURN 56 54 475 CAROLINA -3.5 -5.5328 IOWA ST 50.5 48 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 329 WAKE FOREST 44 43.5 378 CLEMSON -6 -5 476 SAN FRANCISCO 48 48

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 379 GEORGIA 51.5 55 477 NY GIANTS 49 48330 BOSTON COLLEGE -3 -1 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM NBC P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC331 NEW MEXICO ST 67 68 380 NOTRE DAME -6 -4.5 478 DALLAS -6.5 -3.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM 381 MISSISSIPPI ST -8 -7332 NEW MEXICO -10 -7.5 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM CBSC333 RICE 62 -1.5 382 LOUISIANA TECH 67 67.5 479 NEW ORLEANS 47.5 48

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM 383 OKLAHOMA 64 64.5 P: 4:10PM C: 6:10PM E: 7:10PM ESPN334 UTEP 0 57 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ABC 480 MINNESOTA -3.5 -3.5335 TEXAS ST UNIV 55.5 54 384 OHIO ST -5.5 -7.5 481 LA CHARGERS 44 43.5

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM PAC12 385 MEMPHIS 64 68.5 P: 7:20PM C: 9:20PM E: 10:20PM ESPN336 COLORADO -35 -36 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNN 482 DENVER -5 -3.5337 UAB 56.5 55.5 386 UCF -2.5 -1.5

P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM ESPN3 387 STANFORD 54.5 56338 BALL ST -13 -14 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM FOX339 MIDDLE TENN ST 68.5 73 388 USC -5.5 -7

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 389 UNLV 67 73340 SYRACUSE -10 -8.5 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN3341 INDIANA -2.5 -3.5 390 IDAHO -7.5 -6.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 391 MINNESOTA 54 52342 VIRGINIA 55 56.5 P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM FOX 1343 PITTSBURGH 67 68 392 OREGON ST 1 -2.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC344 PENN ST -17 -21

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2017

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017

NFL WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2017

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2017

NFL WEEK 1 continuedSUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2017


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NFL VI PICKSVI Jim 102-82 (55%) 25-30 (45%)*

VI Jason 112-72 (61%)34-21 (62%)*

VI Doug 98-86 (53%)33-23 (59%)*

VIMattNew in 2017

Power Rating 83-101 (45%)

Effective Strength 86-98 (47%)

Bettors Ratings 87-97 (47%)

Consensus 92-92 (50%)

Thursday, September 7, 2017 - (451) KANSAS CITY at (452) NEW ENGLAND (-8)New

England*

New

England*

Kansas

City

New

England

Kansas

City

New

England

Kansas

City

New England

Thursday, September 7, 2017 - (451) KANSAS CITY at (452) NEW ENGLAND - TOTAL (48)UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (457) JACKSONVILLE at (458) HOUSTON (-5.5)Houston Houston Jacksonville Houston* Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (457) JACKSONVILLE at (458) HOUSTON - TOTAL (40)OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (473) SEATTLE at (474) GREEN BAY (-3)Green

Bay*

Green

Bay

Green

Bay

Green

Bay*

Green

Bay

Green

Bay

Green

Bay

Green Bay

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (473) SEATTLE at (474) GREEN BAY - TOTAL (50.5)UNDER OVER* UNDER* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (477) NY GIANTS at (478) DALLAS (-3.5)NY Giants Dallas* Dallas Dallas* Dallas NY Giants Dallas Dallas

Sunday, September 10, 2017 - (477) NY GIANTS at (478) DALLAS - TOTAL (48)OVER UNDER OVER* OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER

Monday, September 11, 2017 - (479) NEW ORLEANS at (480) MINNESOTA (-3.5)Minnesota New

Orleans

New

Orleans*

New

Orleans

Minnesota New

Orleans

Minnesota New Orleans

Sunday, September 11, 2017 - (479) NEW ORLEANS at (480) MINNESOTA - TOTAL (48)UNDER* OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB) – All Records 2016

Jim says…Monday night offers up a nice doubleheader, and in the first of the two games, Minnesota’s defensive oriented approach matches up with New Orleans’ explosive offense. The total is set at 48, but if you ask me, it’s set at end-of-year 2016 perceptions. I have the feeling that this Saints team is going to be different than past groups. There are several new parts to work in on offense, and I can assure you that the defense will be better than 2nd last in the NFL again. Of course, the Vikings don’t want anything to do with a shootout against the Saints, and off a season in which they allowed just 18 PPG at home, I don’t see them yielding a whole lot more on Monday. HC Mike Zimmer’s Minnesota teams are 31-17 UNDER overall in his tenure, including 10-2 in the first month. Let’s go UNDER in this one. Jason says…Pete Carroll’s teams boast a record of 30-17 OVER the total as an underdog, and for the opening week of the 2017 season, they find themselves in that role at Green Bay. These teams typically play some exciting games when matched up against one another, but that doesn’t mean they are always close. In fact, in seven of the L12 head-to-head clashes, the winning team topped the 30-point mark. Both teams come into this game healthy offensively, and perhaps with more question marks on the other side of the ball after offseason transactions. With two of the more talented quarterbacks in the league taking center stage, an OVER is never a bad wager. I see this games as more of a shootout than the oddsmakers do. Green Bay wins a tight one 31-28. Doug says… Minnesota has been a covering machine the last couple years are 23-10 ATS and 13-4 ATS at home. Even with this, the Vikings offense is still a big question mark in my mind and while Sam Bradford has moments, he has a lot of poor ones also. The offensive line made changes, yet not certain if this amount to real upgrades for Minnesota. New Orleans has been stuck at 7-9 and while they probably are still no better than a .500 club, they are a good matchup against the Vikes. They can both run and throw on the Minnesota defense and while the preseason is not a precursor to future results, the defense, finally, looks improved and if they can create enough third and longs, they know where Bradford will be in the pocket. Saints a heavenly 13-4 ATS as dogs lately.

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NFL MATCHUPS(451) KANSAS CITY [SU:12-5 | ATS:9-7-1] AT (452) NEW ENGLAND (-9 | 48.5) [SU:17-2 | ATS:16-3]

SEPTEMBER 7, 2017 8:30 PM on NBC - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 23.8 19 25-106 [4.2] 34-23-230 [6.7] 14.1 19.4 21 28-124 [4.5] 37-22-246 [6.6] 19.1 +15 +4.4 NEW ENGLAND 28.7 23 30-112 [3.8] 36-24-284 [7.8] 13.8 16.4 18 23-88 [3.9] 37-23-239 [6.4] 19.9 +13 +12.3

As per usual, the Super Bowl champs open the season and it should be another raucous scene at Gillette Stadium. New England is favored again to repeat, but that has not happened in 12 years, after occurring four times from 1989 to 2005. Despite incredible productivity, Tom Brady is still 40 and at some point Father Time wins. The Patriots are 13-3 ATS at home the past two years. Kansas City has the unenviable task as being the first Pats opponent, but coach Andy Reid’s Chiefs teams are 23-12 ATS on the road and anything over a touchdown favorite in Week 1 is a big number. If New England plays there game, they cover, however, any slipups and the Chiefs could make this close.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS(L5Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles• NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• NEW ENGLAND is 35-15 OVER(L50G) at HOME - Conference games

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-01-16 KANSAS CITY (20) at NEW ENGLAND (27) -6 44.5 NEW ENGLAND HOME FAV OVER 2014-09-29 NEW ENGLAND (14) at KANSAS CITY (41) +3 45.0 KANSAS CITY HOME DOG OVER 2011-11-21 KANSAS CITY (3) at NEW ENGLAND (34) -17 46.5 NEW ENGLAND HOME FAV UNDER 2008-09-07 KANSAS CITY (10) at NEW ENGLAND (17) -16.5 43.0 KANSAS CITY ROAD DOG UNDER 2005-11-27 NEW ENGLAND (16) at KANSAS CITY (26) -3 50.0 KANSAS CITY HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge KANSAS CITY 48 26.5 19.3 19.9 NEW ENGLAND -8 30.5 -6.6 28.2 26.5

HOME teams are on a 3-0 ATS run in KC-NE series, average win 21.7 PPG

(453) NY JETS [SU:5-11 | ATS:6-8-2] AT (454) BUFFALO (-9.5 | 40) [SU:7-9 | ATS:6-9-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - NEW ERA FIELD (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY JETS 17.2 18 26-113 [4.3] 34-19-217 [6.3] 19.2 25.6 20 27-99 [3.7] 34-22-243 [7.1] 13.4 -20 -8.4 BUFFALO 24.9 20 31-164 [5.3] 30-18-190 [6.4] 14.2 23.6 21 29-133 [4.6] 32-19-224 [7.0] 15.1 +6 +1.3

Buffalo waved the white flag to this season by trading their best wide receiver and cornerback. New head coach Sean McDermott could not possibly be pleased about that development, yet his team is still around a touchdown favorite over the New York Jets, which says a lot about their skill level. New York played three quarterbacks in the preseason and none of them will excel on this team, based on their own merit and teammates abilities. With as bad as Gang Green appears, this line might make more sense in month than today. Last year both teams had better squads and the Jets swept the season series as underdogs. Also watch the total with the Bills 12-3 OVER as favorites.

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 11-6 ATS(L17G) - First game of the season• NY JETS is 3-6-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games• BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER(L12G) at HOME - VS OPP with more than 13 days rest

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2017-01-01 BUFFALO (10) at NY JETS (30) +4 43.0 NY JETS HOME DOG UNDER 2016-09-15 NY JETS (37) at BUFFALO (31) -1 40.5 NY JETS ROAD DOG OVER 2016-01-03 NY JETS (17) at BUFFALO (22) +3 41.0 BUFFALO HOME DOG UNDER 2015-11-12 BUFFALO (22) at NY JETS (17) -2 41.5 BUFFALO ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-24 * NY JETS (3) vs BUFFALO (38) -3 39.0 BUFFALO xxxx FAV OVER

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



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NFL MATCHUPSSTRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NY JETS 40 18.5 16.9 18.1 BUFFALO -7.5 21.5 -5.4 22.5 23.5

UNDERDOGS are on a 6-1 ATS run in the NYJ-BUF series

(455) ATLANTA (-7 | 50) [SU:13-6 | ATS:12-7] AT (456) CHICAGO [SU:3-13 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - SOLDIER FIELD (CHICAGO, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ATLANTA 34.1 24 26-117 [4.5] 33-23-299 [8.9] 12.2 25.3 23 23-104 [4.6] 42-27-273 [6.5] 14.9 +16 +8.8 CHICAGO 17.4 20 24-108 [4.6] 35-22-248 [7.1] 20.5 24.9 20 28-122 [4.4] 33-21-225 [6.8] 13.9 -20 -7.5

It is well known the Super Bowl loser has not started the year well and given how Atlanta lost last year, that hangover could be something since these losers are 7-10 and 4-13 ATS since the last time the Falcons played in the big game. The Atlanta offense probably will not be quite as strong, yet the defense is a year older and has more experience. Chicago is coming off three straight losing seasons and is thought to be heading towards a fourth, but at least it will be with a different quarterback. You will not hear about the Bears and quick starts, since they are 3-8-1 ATS the past four years in September, including 0-6 ATS the last two seasons.

GAME TRENDS• ATLANTA is 10-4 ATS(L2Y) - Conference games• CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - OU line of 45 or more• ATLANTA is 7-3-1 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - On grass field

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-10-12 CHICAGO (27) at ATLANTA (13) -3 55.5 CHICAGO ROAD DOG UNDER 2011-09-11 ATLANTA (12) at CHICAGO (30) +1.5 40.5 CHICAGO HOME DOG OVER 2009-10-18 CHICAGO (14) at ATLANTA (21) -4 46.5 ATLANTA HOME FAV UNDER 2008-10-12 CHICAGO (20) at ATLANTA (22) +3 43.0 ATLANTA HOME DOG UNDER 2005-12-18 ATLANTA (3) at CHICAGO (16) -3.5 31.0 CHICAGO HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge ATLANTA -7 29.5 28.3 28.9 CHICAGO 50 19.5 7.5 21.8 21.4

UNDERDOGS are on a 6-2 ATS run in the ATL-CHI series

(457) JACKSONVILLE [SU:3-13 | ATS:8-8] AT (458) HOUSTON (-5.5 | 39.5) [SU:10-8 | ATS:7-10-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 19.9 20 24-102 [4.2] 39-23-233 [6.0] 16.8 25.0 19 28-106 [3.8] 34-22-215 [6.3] 12.8 -16 -5.1 HOUSTON 17.9 19 29-116 [4.0] 36-21-196 [5.4] 17.4 20.9 17 25-98 [3.9] 34-20-202 [6.0] 14.4 -4 -3.0

All we really learned about Jacksonville in the preseason is that coach Doug Marrone is not sold on Blake Bortles as his QB of the future. Marrone will want to generate a rushing attack and turn Bortles into more of play-action passer and control the game in that manner. Houston has been talking up Tom Savage as their signal caller, with the rest of the NFL not in agreement. The Texans are in the same boat, wanting to run first, but they have more perimeter playmakers and a stronger defense. Houston has largely controlled this series with an 11-4 and 8-6-1 ATS home record against the Jaguars. Both clubs need a good beginning to the season and have to win division battles.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 10-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - As favorite• JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS(L5Y) - In September• JACKSONVILLE is 11-3-1 OVER(L15G) on ROAD - Before playing TENNESSEE



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RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-12-18 JACKSONVILLE (20) at HOUSTON (21) -3.5 39.5 JACKSONVILLE ROAD DOG OVER 2016-11-13 HOUSTON (24) at JACKSONVILLE (21) -3 42.0 HOUSTON ROAD DOG OVER 2016-01-03 JACKSONVILLE (6) at HOUSTON (30) -5.5 45.0 HOUSTON HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-18 HOUSTON (31) at JACKSONVILLE (20) -3 43.0 HOUSTON ROAD DOG OVER 2014-12-28 JACKSONVILLE (17) at HOUSTON (23) -9 38.0 JACKSONVILLE ROAD DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge JACKSONVILLE 40 21 17.9 18.7 HOUSTON -5.5 22.5 -4.3 23.3 23

UNDERDOGS are on a 7-2 ATS run in the JAC-HOU series

(459) PHILADELPHIA [SU:7-9 | ATS:8-8] AT (460) WASHINGTON (PK | 47.5) [SU:8-7-1 | ATS:10-6]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 22.9 21 27-113 [4.1] 38-24-224 [5.9] 14.7 20.7 19 24-103 [4.2] 35-21-239 [6.9] 16.5 +6 +2.2 WASHINGTON 24.8 22 24-106 [4.5] 38-25-297 [7.8] 16.2 23.9 23 26-120 [4.5] 37-24-258 [7.0] 15.8 0 +0.9

Carson Wentz has made progress as he embarks on his second season. What could hold him back is an offensive line that continues to have issues in pass protection. This is something Philadelphia has to find answers to otherwise Wentz and the Eagles offense will not reach potential. Philly has failed to cover six straight (1-5 SU) against Washington. The Redskins are the perfect team for the D.C. area, they love all the drama. Having gotten rid of last year’s starting wide receivers, QB Kirk Cousins and the guys are still learning each other and it shows. Defensive speed needs have been addressed, it becomes a matter of everyone understanding where they need to be. Washington is 12-30 ATS in September home starts.

GAME TRENDS• PHILADELPHIA is 8-3 ATS(L2Y) - On grass field• WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - More than 6 days rest• WASHINGTON is 18-7 UNDER(L25G) - More than 6 days rest

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-12-11 WASHINGTON (27) at PHILADELPHIA (22) +2 48.0 WASHINGTON ROAD FAV OVER 2016-10-16 PHILADELPHIA (20) at WASHINGTON (27) +3 45.0 WASHINGTON HOME DOG OVER 2015-12-26 WASHINGTON (38) at PHILADELPHIA (24) -3 48.0 WASHINGTON ROAD DOG OVER 2015-10-04 PHILADELPHIA (20) at WASHINGTON (23) +3 45.5 WASHINGTON HOME DOG UNDER 2014-12-20 PHILADELPHIA (24) at WASHINGTON (27) +7 51.0 WASHINGTON HOME DOG xxxx

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge PHILADELPHIA 47.5 22.5 24.2 22.6 WASHINGTON 0 21.5 -1.8 23.3 26.4 WAS

WASHINGTON is on a 5-0 SU & ATS run versus Philadelphia

(461) ARIZONA (-1.5 | 47.5) [SU:7-8-1 | ATS:6-10] AT (462) DETROIT [SU:9-8 | ATS:7-9-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 26.1 23 25-108 [4.3] 40-24-258 [6.4] 14.0 22.6 18 26-95 [3.6] 34-21-210 [6.2] 13.5 0 +3.5 DETROIT 20.7 20 21-80 [3.7] 37-24-253 [6.9] 16.1 22.6 21 25-110 [4.4] 34-25-246 [7.2] 15.8 -1 -1.9

This is one of several contests in Week 1 which when looking back later in the year, teams could point to negatively or positively. Carson Palmer looked like he should have retired last year, but you get the impression he and Larry Fitzgerald wanted one more shot. Arizona’s offense has big play elements everywhere and the defense also has difference-makers if not known stability at this time. Detroit entered the off-season needing defensive line upgrade, it did not happen for reasons unknown. If Palmer has a clear, clean pocket to throw from, the Lions high-paid Matthew Stafford will need a brilliant performance. These two clubs are 6-1 OVER when playing in the Motor City.




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GAME TRENDS• DETROIT is 10-4-1 ATS(L15G) at HOME - VS Opp With 1500 or more travel miles• ARIZONA is 9-16 ATS(L25G) - All Games• ARIZONA is 12-2 OVER(L3Y) - 1000 or more travel miles

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2015-10-11 ARIZONA (42) at DETROIT (17) +4.5 46.0 ARIZONA ROAD FAV OVER 2014-11-16 DETROIT (6) at ARIZONA (14) +1 41.5 ARIZONA HOME DOG UNDER 2013-09-15 DETROIT (21) at ARIZONA (25) +1 47.0 ARIZONA HOME DOG UNDER 2012-12-16 DETROIT (10) at ARIZONA (38) +5.5 43.5 ARIZONA HOME DOG OVER 2009-12-20 ARIZONA (31) at DETROIT (24) +14 46.5 DETROIT HOME DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge ARIZONA -1.5 24 23.8 22.4 DETROIT 47.5 22.5 -1.1 23.7 25.1 DET

HOME teams are on a 12-1 ATS run in the ARZ-DET series since ‘99

(463) OAKLAND [SU:12-5 | ATS:10-7] AT (464) TENNESSEE (-2 | 51) [SU:9-7 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - NISSAN STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 25.3 21 27-117 [4.4] 38-23-246 [6.5] 14.3 24.2 20 27-118 [4.3] 33-20-252 [7.6] 15.3 +13 +1.1 TENNESSEE 23.8 20 30-137 [4.6] 31-19-221 [7.0] 15.0 23.6 20 22-88 [4.0] 40-24-269 [6.8] 15.1 0 +0.2

Oakland has one of the best offensive lines in football, a superb young quarterback in Derek Carr and they have assembled an impressive collection of talent which should enable the Raiders to score a number of points. Nonetheless, the linebackers have weaknesses and the secondary is worse. In a contest like this, Oakland will have to rely on past experience and they are 11-3 ATS away against AFC opponents the past two years. Tennessee’s O-Line is right with the Raiders and with QB Marcus Mariota having better wide-outs to go to, with an excellent running game, this is early measurement battle for coach Mike Mularkey’s crew. As opposed to the Raiders, Tennessee has struggled with conference foes and is 6-17 ATS since 2015.

GAME TRENDS• OAKLAND is 10-3 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games• TENNESSEE is 3-12-1 ATS(L16G) at HOME - VS AFC-WEST• TENNESSEE is 10-4 OVER(L2Y) - On grass field

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-25 OAKLAND (17) at TENNESSEE (10) +2 47.0 OAKLAND ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-11-29 OAKLAND (24) at TENNESSEE (21) PK 45.0 OAKLAND ROAD xxx xxxx 2013-11-24 TENNESSEE (23) at OAKLAND (19) +2.5 42.0 TENNESSEE ROAD FAV xxxx 2010-09-12 OAKLAND (13) at TENNESSEE (38) -6.5 39.5 TENNESSEE HOME FAV OVER 2007-10-28 OAKLAND (9) at TENNESSEE (13) -7 39.0 OAKLAND ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge OAKLAND 51 26 24.5 24.5 TENNESSEE -2 23.5 -0.1 25.5 25.6

FAVORITES have gone 8-1-1 ATS in the OAK-TEN series since ‘02

(465) TAMPA BAY (-2.5 | 43.5) [SU:9-7 | ATS:9-7] AT (466) MIAMI [SU:10-7 | ATS:8-7-2]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - HARD ROCK STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 22.1 21 28-101 [3.6] 36-22-245 [6.8] 15.7 23.1 20 27-117 [4.4] 34-22-251 [7.3] 15.9 +2 -1.0 MIAMI 22.1 17 25-110 [4.4] 30-20-221 [7.3] 15.0 24.1 22 29-143 [4.9] 36-22-239 [6.7] 15.9 +1 -2.0

Almost former FOX television analyst Jay Cutler has made a very positive impression in aqua green and orange and is “excited” about Miami’s home opener. The Dolphins have quite a variety of offensive talent that Cutler could use, it just comes down to turnovers for him. Coach Adam Gase is extremely unhappy with his secondary, which Tampa Bay could expose. The



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Buccaneers claim they are ready for postseason football and they are an exciting up and coming unit. QB Jameis Winston had playmakers around him and if the running game comes around, the Bucs offense could be lethal. The defense has a chance to be better than 23rd, as long as the group as a whole comes to play on every down.

GAME TRENDS• TAMPA BAY is 10-5 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - On grass field• MIAMI is 7-16-2 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Non-conference games• MIAMI is 9-3 OVER(L2Y) - On grass field

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-11-11 MIAMI (19) at TAMPA BAY (22) +2.5 39.5 TAMPA BAY HOME DOG OVER 2009-11-15 TAMPA BAY (23) at MIAMI (25) -10 43.0 TAMPA BAY ROAD DOG OVER 2005-10-16 MIAMI (13) at TAMPA BAY (27) -4.5 34.5 TAMPA BAY HOME FAV OVER 2000-12-10 TAMPA BAY (16) at MIAMI (13) -3 34.0 TAMPA BAY ROAD DOG UNDER 1997-09-21 MIAMI (21) at TAMPA BAY (31) -3.5 36.5 TAMPA BAY HOME FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TAMPA BAY -2.5 24 22.7 22.4 MIAMI 41.5 22.5 -1 21.8 24.1

TAMPA BAY is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS versus Miami since ‘97

(467) BALTIMORE [SU:8-8 | ATS:7-8-1] AT (468) CINCINNATI (-3 | 42.5) [SU:6-9-1 | ATS:6-9-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALTIMORE 21.4 20 23-91 [4.0] 42-27-256 [6.0] 16.2 20.1 18 24-89 [3.7] 36-23-233 [6.4] 16.0 +5 +1.3 CINCINNATI 20.3 21 28-111 [4.0] 35-23-246 [7.0] 17.6 19.7 20 26-113 [4.4] 37-23-237 [6.4] 17.8 +3 +0.6

The first game of a new season can be made too much of, yet for these division partners it means a great deal to start with a W. Scouts are saying Baltimore’s No. 7 defense from a year ago should be even better and it might need to with QB Joe Flacco’s balky back a real concern, despite coach John Harbaugh insisting Flacco “..will be ready for Cincinnati.” The Bengals after five consecutive winning seasons fell to 6-9-1 in 2016 and firmly believe if healthy can win the AFC North and return to playoffs. Andy Dalton has looked comfortable and when his Bengals are home against the Ravens, they are 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS.

GAME TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 8-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - division games• CINCINNATI is 8-17 ATS(L25G) at HOME - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• CINCINNATI is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) - division games

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2017-01-01 BALTIMORE (10) at CINCINNATI (27) +2.5 40.5 CINCINNATI HOME DOG UNDER 2016-11-27 CINCINNATI (14) at BALTIMORE (19) -3 42.0 BALTIMORE HOME FAV UNDER 2016-01-03 BALTIMORE (16) at CINCINNATI (24) -9.5 40.5 BALTIMORE ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-09-27 CINCINNATI (28) at BALTIMORE (24) -1.5 45.5 CINCINNATI ROAD DOG OVER 2014-10-26 BALTIMORE (24) at CINCINNATI (27) +3 44.0 CINCINNATI HOME DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge BALTIMORE 42.5 23 19.2 20.4 CINCINNATI -3 22.5 -2.3 23.2 22.7

UNDERDOGS are on a 5-1 ATS run in the BAL-CIN seriesCINCINNATI is 9-3 ATS when hosting Baltimore since ‘05

(469) PITTSBURGH (-9 | 46.5) [SU:13-6 | ATS:11-7-1] AT (470) CLEVELAND [SU:1-15 | ATS:3-12-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - FIRSTENERGY STADIUM (CLEVELAND, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 24.4 21 26-114 [4.3] 36-23-259 [7.1] 15.3 20.6 20 23-93 [4.1] 37-24-246 [6.7] 16.5 +5 +3.8 CLEVELAND 16.5 18 22-107 [4.9] 35-21-204 [5.8] 18.8 28.2 23 31-143 [4.6] 34-22-250 [7.4] 13.9 -12 -11.7




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If New England were somehow to falter, the team according to oddsmakers that steps into their place is Pittsburgh from the AFC. The Steelers have the ammo offensively to do a great deal of damage and with their youthful defense gaining invaluable experience the last couple years, they could be ready to take the next step. For Cleveland, the idea is simply getting better after 1-15 campaign. The last couple drafts have added players and if DeShone Kizer works out eventually at quarterback, all the better. Speaking of QB, did you know the last Browns quarterback to start 16 games in a season was Tim Couch in 2002! Cleveland is 3-12-1 ATS at home the last couple years.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 10-5-1 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• CLEVELAND is 1-10-1 ATS(L3Y) - division games• PITTSBURGH is 9-2 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - As favorite

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2017-01-01 CLEVELAND (24) at PITTSBURGH (27) -3 41.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx OVER 2016-11-20 PITTSBURGH (24) at CLEVELAND (9) +8 45.5 PITTSBURGH ROAD FAV UNDER 2016-01-03 PITTSBURGH (28) at CLEVELAND (12) +12.5 47.0 PITTSBURGH ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-11-15 CLEVELAND (9) at PITTSBURGH (30) -7 43.5 PITTSBURGH HOME FAV UNDER 2014-10-12 PITTSBURGH (10) at CLEVELAND (31) -2.5 46.5 CLEVELAND HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge PITTSBURGH -9 28.5 29.3 28.2 CLEVELAND 46.5 17 9 17.5 19.2

FAVORITES have gone 4-0-1 ATS in the L5 of the PIT-CLE series

(471) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:8-8 | ATS:7-8-1] AT (472) LA RAMS (-3.5 | 42) [SU:4-12 | ATS:4-10-2]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 4:05 PM on CBS - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 25.7 22 26-102 [4.0] 36-23-263 [7.2] 14.2 24.5 22 26-120 [4.7] 36-24-262 [7.2] 15.6 -5 +1.2 LA RAMS 14.0 15 23-78 [3.3] 33-19-184 [5.5] 18.7 24.6 20 26-104 [3.9] 36-24-233 [6.4] 13.7 -11 -10.6

When Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano said there is no time table for Andrew Luck return, one can only surmise the recovery process is going slow and they want to make sure he’s 100 percent because the offensive line, while expected to be improved, it was a big reason why Luck needed shoulder surgery to begin with. That brings us to Scott Tolzein as the No.1 quarterback and he will try and improve on the Colts 25-12 ATS mark as a road favorite of three points or less. The coaching change for the Rams has brought about a batch of moving parts that do not look cohesive yet. The Rams are 11-20 ATS as non-division home underdogs the last decade.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7-1 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Non-conference games• LA RAMS is 3-13-1 ATS(L17G) - First game of the season• INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 OVER(L3Y) - On grass field

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-11-10 ST LOUIS (38) at INDIANAPOLIS (8) -7 43.0 ST LOUIS ROAD DOG OVER 2009-10-25 INDIANAPOLIS (42) at ST LOUIS (6) +14 45.0 INDIANAPOLIS ROAD FAV OVER 2005-10-17 ST LOUIS (28) at INDIANAPOLIS (45) -13.5 51.0 INDIANAPOLIS HOME FAV OVER 2001-12-30 INDIANAPOLIS (17) at ST LOUIS (42) -12 58.5 ST LOUIS HOME FAV OVER 1995-10-01 ST LOUIS (18) at INDIANAPOLIS (21) -3 39.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge INDIANAPOLIS 42 23.5 18.4 18.9 LA RAMS -3.5 19 -3 23.4 23.1

The L4 Colts-Rams h2h games went OVER the total, winning team avg 41.8 PPG


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(473) SEATTLE [SU:11-6-1 | ATS:8-9-1] AT (474) GREEN BAY (-3 | 50.5) [SU:12-7 | ATS:11-7-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE 22.2 20 26-104 [4.0] 35-23-252 [7.2] 16.0 18.6 19 27-91 [3.4] 34-21-229 [6.8] 17.2 -1 +3.6 GREEN BAY 27.6 22 23-103 [4.5] 39-25-270 [6.9] 13.5 25.1 21 24-96 [4.1] 36-23-278 [7.6] 14.9 +8 +2.5

What a great opener for two of the favorites in the NFC! Seattle’s defense reminded many of the one that went to consecutive Super Bowls in August, with domineering numbers and blinding speed. The offensive line and Eddie Lacy are what to watch on offense, as the Seahawks talk about this being there year. Seattle is 1-8 and 2-5-2 ATS at Lambeau. The Hawks’ defense might be ready and so will Aaron Rodgers and the guys in Green Bay. There is a different sense about the Packers this year, knowing Rodgers will be 34 in December and Super Bowl chances are running down. The Pack has the front line talent, with backups worrisome. The Packers are 53-34-2 ATS as single digit favorites.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 11-4-3 ATS(L18G) - VS Opp With 1500 or more travel miles• SEATTLE is 2-8-1 ATS(L11G) on ROAD - First game of the season• GREEN BAY is 10-3 OVER(L5Y) - In September

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-12-11 SEATTLE (10) at GREEN BAY (38) +3 46.5 GREEN BAY HOME DOG OVER 2015-09-20 SEATTLE (17) at GREEN BAY (27) -3 49.0 GREEN BAY HOME FAV UNDER 2015-01-18 GREEN BAY (22) at SEATTLE (28) -8.5 44.5 GREEN BAY ROAD DOG OVER 2014-09-04 GREEN BAY (16) at SEATTLE (36) -4.5 46.5 SEATTLE HOME FAV OVER 2012-09-24 GREEN BAY (12) at SEATTLE (14) +3 45.0 SEATTLE HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge SEATTLE 50.5 27.5 22.7 22.8 GREEN BAY -3 28.5 -3.8 26.3 26.6

GREEN BAY is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS hosting Seattle since ‘03

(475) CAROLINA (-5.5 | 48) [SU:6-10 | ATS:6-9-1] AT (476) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:2-14 | ATS:4-11-1]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 23.1 20 28-113 [4.0] 35-19-230 [6.5] 14.8 25.1 21 23-92 [3.9] 38-26-268 [7.0] 14.3 -2 -2.0 SAN FRANCISCO 19.3 18 29-126 [4.4] 31-18-182 [5.9] 16.0 30.0 22 34-166 [4.8] 33-20-240 [7.4] 13.5 -5 -10.7

With low expectations and excitement with Kyle Shanahan running the show in San Francisco, there is an unusual amount of optimism from the 49ers players they could stun Carolina in home opener. There has been the usual amount of frustration from the Niners with growing pains, yet Shanahan has them believing. The Panthers are convinced last year was an abomination and they will return to the postseason and Cam Newton will have monster year and thrive with new weapons around him. One aspect to watch for in the first five Carolina contests is effort, as to often, particularly on defense, the ‘Cats went through the motions last season. Carolina is 8-1 ATS on the road to Frisco area.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2-1 ATS(L11G) at HOME - More than 13 days rest• CAROLINA is 4-9 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - OU line of 45 or more• SAN FRANCISCO is 17-7-1 OVER(L25G) - VS NFC-SOUTH

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-18 SAN FRANCISCO (27) at CAROLINA (46) -11.5 44.5 CAROLINA HOME FAV OVER 2014-01-12 SAN FRANCISCO (23) at CAROLINA (10) +1 41.5 SAN FRANCISCO ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-10 CAROLINA (10) at SAN FRANCISCO (9) -6 42.5 CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER 2010-10-24 SAN FRANCISCO (20) at CAROLINA (23) +2 35.5 CAROLINA HOME DOG OVER 2007-12-02 SAN FRANCISCO (14) at CAROLINA (31) -3 35.0 CAROLINA HOME FAV OVER




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STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge CAROLINA -5.5 25 27 26.2 SAN FRANCISCO 48 17.5 5.1 21.2 21.4

CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS all-time versus 49ers, including 8-1 ATS @ SF

(477) NY GIANTS [SU:11-6 | ATS:8-7-2] AT (478) DALLAS (-4 | 48) [SU:13-4 | ATS:10-7]SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 8:30 PM on NBC - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 19.0 18 24-87 [3.6] 38-24-245 [6.5] 17.5 18.9 19 25-88 [3.5] 39-23-256 [6.5] 18.2 -4 +0.1 DALLAS 26.6 23 31-149 [4.8] 31-21-231 [7.5] 14.3 20.0 21 21-84 [4.0] 40-27-264 [6.6] 17.4 +5 +6.6

Dallas will be without Ezekiel Elliott and no word yet if Odell Beckham Jr. will be ready as he attempts to get ankle healed. Though this would lower the excitement level, this is the Giants and the Cowboys. New York is counting on an aging Eli Manning and defense that made tremendous strides after spending a shipload of money to upgrade. Dallas is secure with Dak Prescott, yet we have seen rookie signal callers burst onto the scene and then regress. The Cowboys major concern is finding a consistent pass rush, with the secondary completely overhauled. Dallas is in 0-5 ATS downer versus the G-Men and are 2-6 ATS against Big Blue at home in their last eight tries.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 7-4-1 ATS(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• DALLAS is 6-19 ATS(L25G) at HOME - More than 6 days rest• DALLAS is 8-2-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - As favorite

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-12-11 DALLAS (7) at NY GIANTS (10) +3.5 47.0 NY GIANTS HOME DOG UNDER 2016-09-11 NY GIANTS (20) at DALLAS (19) -1 48.0 NY GIANTS ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-10-25 DALLAS (20) at NY GIANTS (27) -3 44.5 NY GIANTS HOME FAV OVER 2015-09-13 NY GIANTS (26) at DALLAS (27) -7 52.0 NY GIANTS ROAD DOG OVER 2014-11-23 DALLAS (31) at NY GIANTS (28) +4 48.5 NY GIANTS HOME DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NY GIANTS 48 25.5 22.5 21.1 DALLAS -3.5 27.5 -4.8 25.7 25.5

NY GIANTS are 9-4-1 ATS at Dallas since ‘04

(479) NEW ORLEANS [SU:7-9 | ATS:10-5-1] AT (480) MINNESOTA (-3.5 | 48) [SU:8-8 | ATS:9-7]SEPTEMBER 11, 2017 7:10 PM on ESPN - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 29.3 25 25-109 [4.3] 42-29-317 [7.5] 14.5 28.4 22 25-102 [4.1] 36-24-274 [7.5] 13.2 -3 +0.9 MINNESOTA 20.4 19 24-75 [3.2] 37-26-240 [6.5] 15.4 19.2 19 25-107 [4.2] 34-21-208 [6.1] 16.4 +11 +1.2

As the season begins, the most impressive part of New Orleans summer camp is their defense. (Yes, you did read that correctly.) Whether that holds true once we start for real will be determined, but just the fact it even came up proves the Saints front office is trying to help Drew Brees and the offense. Minnesota fans will be shocked to see Adrian Peterson in a Saints uniform and the Vikings defenders will have to tackle him at real speed. The Minnesota defense wore down in 2016 and unless Sam Bradford and Vikes can deliver consistency the same problems will persist. Minnesota is 13-4 ATS playing at home the past couple years.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Conference games• NEW ORLEANS is 10-15 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - On non-grass field• MINNESOTA is 17-8 UNDER(L3Y) - Conference games



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RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-09-21 MINNESOTA (9) at NEW ORLEANS (20) -9.5 49.5 NEW ORLEANS HOME FAV UNDER 2011-12-18 NEW ORLEANS (42) at MINNESOTA (20) +7 53.0 NEW ORLEANS ROAD FAV OVER 2010-09-09 MINNESOTA (9) at NEW ORLEANS (14) -4.5 49.0 NEW ORLEANS HOME FAV UNDER 2010-01-24 MINNESOTA (28) at NEW ORLEANS (31) -4 53.5 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG OVER 2008-10-06 MINNESOTA (30) at NEW ORLEANS (27) -3 47.0 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NEW ORLEANS 48 22 22.5 22.4 MINNESOTA -3.5 23 -3.6 25.7 26

OVER the total is 9-3-1 in the L13 NO-MIN h2h games

(481) LA CHARGERS [SU:5-11 | ATS:7-9] AT (482) DENVER (-3.5 | 43.5) [SU:9-7 | ATS:9-7]SEPTEMBER 11, 2017 10:20 PM on ESPN - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA CHARGERS 25.6 21 25-94 [3.8] 36-22-262 [7.2] 13.9 26.4 21 26-98 [3.8] 36-23-249 [6.9] 13.1 -7 -0.8 DENVER 20.8 18 26-93 [3.6] 36-21-230 [6.5] 15.5 18.6 19 30-130 [4.3] 34-19-186 [5.4] 17.0 +2 +2.2

In the final game of Week 1, we have a division rivalry encounter. Both these AFC West clubs have seen a great deal of change, starting with the head coaches. Denver had a strong preseason and if their defensive front is as good as they played, this will again be an elite defense that can stop the pass and the run (28th last year). The Broncos are on a 6-0 SU and ATS September streak. The Chargers are also different and are playing in a new city. The San Diego regime has done good work in restructuring the roster and we will see how it plays out in Los Angeles. The Bolts are 40-22 ATS as 3.5 to 7-point road underdog.

GAME TRENDS• DENVER is 9-3-1 ATS(L5Y) - In September• LA CHARGERS is 9-15-1 ATS(L5Y) - division games• DENVER is 9-1-2 UNDER(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-30 SAN DIEGO (19) at DENVER (27) -4 43.5 DENVER HOME FAV OVER 2016-10-13 DENVER (13) at SAN DIEGO (21) +3 44.5 SAN DIEGO HOME DOG UNDER 2016-01-03 SAN DIEGO (20) at DENVER (27) -10 42.0 SAN DIEGO ROAD DOG OVER 2015-12-06 DENVER (17) at SAN DIEGO (3) +6 45.0 DENVER ROAD FAV UNDER 2014-12-14 DENVER (22) at SAN DIEGO (10) +4 49.5 DENVER ROAD FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge LA CHARGERS 43.5 21.5 20 18.7 DENVER -3.5 25.5 -6.5 DEN 24 25.2 DEN

Nine of L12 Chargers-Broncos h2h games in DEN went OVER the total


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NFLTOPWEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

22.5% ROI

14.6% ROI

29.8% ROI

29.8% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

23.8% ROI

24.2% ROI

53.1% ROI

16.6% ROI

31.8% ROI

14.7% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

18.4% ROI

18.4% ROI

(469) PITTSBURGH AT (470) CLEVELANDPITTSBURGH is 35-19-3 ATS(L57G) on ROAD - division games( $1410 Profit with a 22.5% ROI )

(473) SEATTLE AT (474) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 59-39-2 ATS(L100G) - As favorite( $1610 Profit with a 14.6% ROI )

(479) NEW ORLEANS AT (480) MINNESOTAMINNESOTA is 34-16 ATS(L50G) - All Games( $1640 Profit with a 29.8% ROI )

(461) ARIZONA AT (462) DETROITARIZONA is 34-16 OVER(L50G) - 1500 or more travel miles( $1640 Profit with a 29.8% ROI )

(473) SEATTLE AT (474) GREEN BAYSEATTLE is 24-13 OVER(L37G) - VS NFC-NORTH( $970 Profit with a 23.8% ROI )

(475) CAROLINA AT (476) SAN FRANCISCOCAROLINA is 32-17-1 OVER(L50G) on ROAD - Conference games( $1330 Profit with a 24.2% ROI )

(469) PITTSBURGH AT (470) CLEVELANDCLEVELAND is 4-19-2 ATS(L25G) - As underdog( $1460 Profit with a 53.1% ROI )

(455) ATLANTA AT (456) CHICAGOCHICAGO is 19-30-1 ATS(L50G) at HOME - All Games( $910 Profit with a 16.6% ROI )

(471) INDIANAPOLIS AT (472) LA RAMSLA RAMS is 15-34-1 ATS(L50G) - In September( $1750 Profit with a 31.8% ROI )

(467) BALTIMORE AT (468) CINCINNATIBALTIMORE is 29-19-2 UNDER(L50G) - VS AFC-NORTH( $810 Profit with a 14.7% ROI )

(469) PITTSBURGH AT (470) CLEVELANDCLEVELAND is 31-19 UNDER(L50G) at HOME - All Games( $1010 Profit with a 18.4% ROI )

(481) LA CHARGERS AT (482) DENVERLA CHARGERS is 31-19 UNDER(L5Y) - Conference games( $1010 Profit with a 18.4% ROI )

14




Another season of NFL football has arrived, and although the lines & totals for week 1 of the 2017 season have been out for months, it is probably only now that most of you are starting to dig into the offerings. Unlike past seasons, it seems very little has happened this offseason in terms fo dramatically altering the line that were released then. Does that mean oddsmakers have it pegged? Not exactly! Even the experts make mistakes. They don’t know everything, and they certainly can’t accurately quantify the week 1 chemistry of the teams, how they’ve changed in personnel, the attitude adjustments since last year, etc.

Remember, the bookies’ job is to try and get as much even action on the various wagering options in a game, not so much to pick the game. Naturally, there can be weak spots then, and savvy bettors who are prepared with both knowledge of the teams and a powerful weapon like systems can be ready to take advantage.

As always, the start of this NFL season is met with much anticipation. Remember though, unless you are really prepared, and have analyzed all of the current information available to you, don’t get too overzealous and risk an unhealthy percentage of your bankroll on a given week or game. If you haven’t poured through the preseason publications or the previews by popular websites, you need to do that before Thursday, or at least by Sunday. Not only have some coaches and players come and gone, some teams have changed schemes, and in general, EVERY one of the 32 teams boasts fresh optimism. They all share the same dream…reaching the postseason.

Many people refer to the acronym NFL as “Not For Long”, as because of salary cap restrictions and free agency, there is more turnover in good teams than in any other sport from season to season. Bookmakers have an advantage when it comes to this, since the media tends to drive the public thinking. I am not trying to scare you out of betting the Week 1 NFL action, just cautioning you to consider if there are enough valid reasons to lay double-

digits, or back a heavy favorite that enjoyed an unusually good season a year ago. Along that same line of thinking, isn’t it reasonable to think that there is no way teams like Cleveland or San Francisco will be as dismal as in 2016? Or how about the opposite, can Atlanta or Dallas be counted on to reach the same heights as a year ago?

With thoughts like that in mind, we thought we’d pour over the recent opening week action in the NFL to determine if we can’t gain an edge on the books by picking apart the early thoughts of oddmakers through the use of betting systems.

As you’ll see below, there have been some significant systems that have developed in recent opening week action in the NFL. All of them have at least a 61% winning percentage over their lifetime. In each case we’ve tried to provide a reasonable explanation as to why, as well the games that will qualify this coming weekend.

Please note: These systems are sorted by our own personal rating system that factors in net units above zero, winning percentage, R.O.I., and likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2017. Note also, lines used were as of Friday 9/1/17 and may differ slightly at the time of wagering, thus altering the qualification of games in that system. All stats and records noted are based strictly on regular season games of the prior season.

1. Week 1 games with totals of less than 48 points and featuring home teams that won at least 11 games against the spread the prior regular season are 15-1 OVER (93.8%) the total since ‘02 (Win: +13.9 units, R.O.I.: 86.9%, Rating: 8*)2017 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in NE-KCAnalysis: Teams that cover the spread in that many games are typically pretty explosive teams that are riding positive momentum into their season openers. Unfortunately, only one team won 11 of more games ATS in the regular season last year, New England. Keep an eye on the total, as it was at 47.5 as of presstime.

2. Week 1 non-divisional conference games featuring a road favorite and a total greater than 41 are 22-4 UNDER (84.6%) the total since ‘99 (Win: +17.6 units, R.O.I.: 67.6%, Rating: 8*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in ATL-CHI & CAR-SFAnalysis: Considering that the home teams in this particular system have scored just 14.6 PPG in the 26 contests, it would seem that these teams are home dogs for a good reason…they can’t can’t score. The result is obvious, UNDER’s.

3. Week 1 home favorites that had a worse record than their opponent the previous

TOP NFL WEEK 1 HISTORICAL SYSTEMS AND QUALIFYING GAMES FOR 2017


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season are 32-10-4 ATS (76.2%) since ‘00 (Win: +21.0 units, R.O.I.: 50%, Rating: 7*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on Tennessee, Cincinnati, Green BayAnalysis: This system has provided solid longevity. Three more plays are on tap for 2017 as this is a nice transitional system showing that oddsmakers do get it right many times in analyzing teams’ changes in the offseason.

4. Opening week road underdogs of more than 3 points that won between 4 & 6 games the prior season are 27-8-1 ATS (77.1%) since ‘04 (Win: +18.2 units, R.O.I.: 52%, Rating: 7*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on NY Jets, LA ChargersAnalysis: This system has quickly elevated itself to #4 on our list by going 11-2 ATS over the L4 seasons. Last year, the Chargers and Dolphins covered their games while Chicago came up short at Houston. The LOS ANGELES CHARGERS are on the list once again for 2017. Remember, every team’s slate is wiped clean and each season offers fresh optimism.

5. Opening week road teams that won between 4 & 6 games the prior season are 36-13-3 ATS (73.5%) since ‘04 (Win: +21.7 units, R.O.I.: 44.3%, Rating: 7*) 2017 Potential Plays: Play on NY Jets, LA Chargers, CarolinaAnalysis: Teams in the 4-6 win range usually qualify as potential bounce-back teams the next season, as it’s quite likely they suffered from bad luck or injuries in the previous campaign. The start of the new season offers fresh motivation and momentum. You’ll notice this system is very similar to #4 above, only with no line range qualifier.

6. Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 38-14-4 ATS (73%) since ‘00 (Win: +22.6 units, R.O.I.: 43.5%, Rating: 7*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on New England, Tennessee, Green Bay, DallasAnalysis: In short, home favorites hosting a quality opponent are likely a very strong team themselves, and opening the season provides extra motivation. After having only one qualifying play a year ago, fortunately we are blessed with four in 2017.

7. Week 1 divisional contest road teams that won 6 or fewer games the prior season are 21-7 ATS (75%) since ‘01 (Win: +13.3 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 7*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on NY Jets, Jacksonville, LA ChargersAnalysis: This system is on at least a 7-game winning streak, with four outright upsets to show for it. Last year, the Giants pulled out a win at Dallas, as did Tampa Bay, at Atlanta. For 2017, three teams qualify.

8. Week 1 games featuring road teams that scored more than 26 PPG the prior season are 27-12-2 UNDER (69.2%) the total since ‘02 (Win:

+11.8 units, R.O.I.: 30.3%, Rating: 6*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in ATL-CHI, ARI-DET, OAK-TEN, & NO-MINAnalysis: Oddsmakers will naturally inflate the totals of returning high scoring offenses. Most often, they are OVER-inflated, as just because a team scores well one season doesn’t mean it will the next. For week 1 of the 2017 season, many of the league’s best offenses from a year ago are on the road, offering up five different plays on this system.

9. Opening week games with road favorites of 3 points or more are 44-21-3 UNDER (67.6%) the total since ‘00 (Win: +20.9 units, R.O.I.: 32.1%, Rating: 6*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in ATL-CHI, PIT-CLE, IND-LAR, CAR-SFAnalysis: In most cases, teams become road favorites in Week 1 because the host team can’t or isn’t expected to score points. Bad offenses = low scores.

10. Divisional home underdogs are 12-6 SU & 14-4 ATS (77.7%) in Week 1 since ‘09 (Win: +9.6 units, R.O.I.: 53.3%, Rating: 6*)2017 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: There isn’t a whole lot more motivating than an opening week contest at home against a targeted team in the division. In most cases, the road favorite in this scenario is a returning playoff team, while the home dog is an aspiring one. As you can see, over the last eight years, the aspiring team has enjoyed plenty of success and a great start to the season. Unfortunately, unless some late line movements help our cause, there will be no plays for 2017.

11. Home teams have won the L14 season opener weeknight games, going 9-2-3 ATS (81.8%) (Win: +6.8 units, R.O.I.: 61.8%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on New EnglandAnalysis: The tradition of this game pits the defending Super Bowl champion as the home team. Last year, Denver hosted Carolina and won 21-20 as a 3-point underdog. In this year’s game, the Patriots, with a Super Championship to celebrate, host the Chiefs.

12. Week 1 games with road favorites of 3 points or more and total is 43 or more are 21-10-1 UNDER (67.7%) since ‘00 (Win: +10 units, R.O.I.: 32.2%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in ATL-CHI, PIT-CLE, IND-LAR, CAR-SFAnalysis: Again, very similar to #8 above, the higher the total, the more chances that these games go UNDER.

13. Week 1 games with totals greater than 44 and featuring home teams that allowed more than 21 PPG the prior season are 42-23 UNDER (64.6%) the total since ‘01 (Win: +16.7 units, R.O.I.: 25.6%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in ATL-CHI, PHI-WAS, ARI-DET, OAK-TEN, TB-MIA, PIT-CLE, IND-LAR, SEA-GB, CAR-SF

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Analysis: Score one for the oddsmakers in this case, as most often they are able to accurately identify the host teams that may be improved defensively from one season to the next. However, this system seems to be trending downward, with a 9-12 record over the last three years so perhaps its ready to fall off our list? For 2017 there are NINE such games.

14. Week 1 games in which the home favorite won at least four more games than the opponent the prior season are 31-17 OVER (64.5%) the total since ‘00 (Win: +12.3 units, R.O.I.: 25.6%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in JAC-HOUAnalysis: Host teams in this situation are most often good teams with good offenses or the game is played faster because of the separation and one team playing from far behind. Additionally, being a week 1 game, both teams are healthy.

15. Since ‘06, Week 1 non-conference games with totals of 42.5 or more are 15-7 UNDER (68.2%) (Win: +7.3 units, R.O.I.: 33.2%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in TB-MIA, IND-LARAnalysis: Higher level totals, unfamiliarity in opponent, this has often led to UNDER plays. There are far fewer non-conference games in week 1 of 2017 as compared to 2016.

16. Week 1 non-divisional conference road favorites are 16-9-1 ATS (64%) since ‘99 (Win: +6.1 units, R.O.I.: 24.4%, Rating: 5*)2017 Potential Plays: Play on Atlanta, CarolinaAnalysis: If you refer back to #2, this same set of circumstances affects the totals. However, if you recall, the host teams in this particular system have scored just 14.6 PPG in the 26 contests. Historically, these home dogs are not good offensive teams. Pretty easy to see why the road favorites have ATS success. Only two play qualify for 2017, the Falcons and Panthers.

17. Bettors are 35-22 (61.4%) when moving opening totals more than two points in Week 1 since ‘04 (Win: +11.9 units, R.O.I.: 20.9%, Rating: 4*)2017 Potential Plays: (CHECK CLOSING TOTALS AGAINST OPENERS AT KICKOFF)Analysis: Week 1 NFL lines are hammered on by bettors for over three months, and they have been good at dissecting totals. Last year, bettors moved five different games more than 2 points on the total and those games were 3-2. You won’t know these plays specifically until just before kickoff.

18. Week 1 games featuring road teams that allowed more than 25.5 PPG the prior season are 24-15 OVER (61.5%) the total since ‘02 (Win: +7.5 units, R.O.I.: 19.2%, Rating: 4*)2017 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in NYJ-BUF, NO-MIN, LAC-DENAnalysis: Defenses that allow that many points

typically require a complete overhaul, a difficult task in the span of six months. Starting the season on the road only heightens the chances of a relapse.

19. Double-digit road underdogs are 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS (66.7%) in Week 1 since ‘00 (Win: +4.6 units, R.O.I.: 35.4%, Rating: 4*)2017 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: Laying double-digits this early with any team just doesn’t make sense, as every team starts with a fresh slate and believes it has a shot at the postseason at this point, even the worst underdog. There doesn’t figure to be any games that reach double-digit pointspreads this weekend.

20. Week 1 hosts that averaged more than 28.5 PPG the prior season are 12-4 SU & 10-5-1 ATS (66.7%) since ‘01 (Win: +4.5 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Rating: 4*) 2017 Potential Plays: NONE Analysis: Great offense, starting the season at home. These teams seem to pick up right where they left off. Unfortunately, the only two teams that scored that many points last season, Atlanta & New Orleans, are both on the road.

21. Non-conference road underdogs of 3 to 6.5 points are 10-6-5 ATS (62.5%) in Week 1 since ‘00 (Win: +3.4 units, R.O.I.: 21.2%, Rating: 4*)2017 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: Amazingly, five of the L21 games in this system have resulted in a push on the spread. It’s hard to beat an unfamiliar foe, particularly when an unfriendly pointspread is attached. For 2017, there are only two non-conference matchups, and both of those feature road favorites.

22. Divisional home favorites of 3 points or less are 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in Week 1 since ‘01 (Win: +3.4 units, R.O.I.: 21.2%, Rating: 4*)2017 Potential Plays: Washington, CincinnatiAnalysis: A lot of motivation can come from hosting early divisional games with such a short schedule in the NFL. These small home favorites are also motivated by the lack of respect associated with small pointspreads.

Good luck with your plays and enjoy NFL Kickoff 2017!


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If you have been preparing for the start of the NFL season like those of us at the Weekly- you might have a case of information overload. There is no question it is better to be over-prepared than not knowing what is going on and being caught off guard.

If you are a typical bettor and just trusting your past judgment and been doing some modest reading, listening to local sports talk radio, podcasts or catching a few games on TV, let us help you with fundamental thoughts for betting NFL football.

Some of these you know and are good refreshers and others are preconceived notions that have been around for years that lack the relevancy of the past.

STUDY TEAM SCHEDULES, NOT THE WHOLE SEASON, JUST THE FIRST FOUR GAMES When the NFL releases their schedules, too many people lose their minds. What they do is breakdown the entire schedule, try to find wins and losses and use this as season-long benchmark.

This can be a complete waste of time unless you are extremely astute and are dropping 10K or more on futures wagers.

The reason we say this is each year is a new year in the NFL. Who had Carolina going from the Super Bowl to last in the NFC South? Or Cincinnati falling to 6-9-1 after five consecutive winning seasons? And what about Miami being 10-6 and making the playoffs?!

There is reason why half the division champions are new among the eight of them every year.

Instead, focus your attention to what is at hand. Pittsburgh is a notorious slow starter, however, don’t the Steelers look good playing at Cleveland, Minnesota and at Chicago before heading to Baltimore?

Philadelphia started 3-0 last year, but how do think the Eagles might fare playing at Washington, at Kansas City, home to the Giants and traveling cross-country to take on the L.A. Chargers?

CONSIDER THE ‘PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE’ FOR SEASON WIN TOTALS AND TEAM VALUATIONSIf you are baseball bettor along with football, you should be aware of the great Bill James who introduced us to ‘Pythagorean Win

Percentage’, which in layman’s term is scoring differential calculated into a win percentage.

If a team’s scoring differential is in accordance with its record in one season, there is a good chance they will revert to the norm the next year.

Take for example the Oakland Raiders of last year, who were 12-4, yet only had a +31 scoring differential, which was less than half of Kansas City’s (+78) and they were tied atop the NFC West record-wise. Exactly half of Oakland’s victories were by six or few points. With a questionable secondary and still a hole at middle linebacker, it is not an accident Oakland’s win total at sportsbooks is 9.5.

Even before Miami lost Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins were coming off 10-6 campaign and first playoff appearance since 2008, they were only listed with win total of 8, in spite of playing the Jets and Bills four times. One widely accepted reason for such a low figure was that Miami was -17 in point differential, which is more in line with a 7-9 club. Six of the Fins’ wins were by six or less points.

With a new coach, it’s hard to get a good read on the now Los Angeles Chargers, but this much we know, in spite of 5-11 record in 2016, they were only -13 in points score/allowed (four better than Miami in fact), and with a win total of 7.5, it would not be a reach to see the Bolts finish at .500.

TRYING TO LOCATE THE MAGIC TEAM TO FOLLOWMany pull out the Magic 8-ball or some other useless tool to help determine that team you just know is going to improve from the year before to ride on. Of course there is no foolproof method to find such a team, because of injuries and other factors. However, if you look how a team finished the year before and does not have unrealistic expectations, there is potential value to be found.

For example, in 2014, Carolina started 3-2 and went in the tank with a 0-6-1. Because the NFC South was so bad that year, the Panthers won their last four games, won the division and beat Arizona is a wild card game, before falling to Seattle. In 2015, Carolina was won the NFC and went to the Super Bowl.

Two years ago, Detroit opened 1-7 and coach Jim Caldwell looked like he would be fired in just his second season. Miraculously, the Lions turned their season around with a 6-2 close. Last year, Detroit stopped beating themselves and was 9-4 in December before too many injuries, especially to Matthew Stafford, caused them to fade. Along that ride, the Lions roared at 8-4-1 ATS.

Who might be this year’s squad be? Tampa Bay’s young and exciting club discovered confidence, belief and effort for four quarters can lead to wins and they closed out 2016 6-2. Are the Buccaneers primed to take the next step?

TOP TIPS FOR WINNING EARLY IN THE NFL SEASON

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Welcome back to another edition of Line Moves, as we add the NFL to college football this week. All the NFL lines have been out for months, thus, some numbers have changed quite a bit and others are because of injuries. Last year in the NFL we were 51-38 ATS, 57.3%.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL(303) OKLAHOMA STATE at (146) SOUTH ALABAMA 8:00 ET ESPN2Oklahoma State whipped Tulsa and it could have been worse as 10 of the 24 points the Golden Hurricane scored were directly from gift turnovers. The Cowboys have been ridden from -24.5 to -28 at South Alabama, who just covered against Ole Miss. Do the Jaguars fall to 0-8 ATS off one or more spread winners winner?Our View - South Alabama covers

(319) EAST CAROLINA at (320) WEST VIRGINIA 12:00 ET FS2East Carolina was the only FBS squad not to be a favorite against FCS foe and they were hammered 34-14 by James Madison while catching six points. Now having to play on the road, the Pirates ship is taking on water, moving from +19.5 to +24 at West Virginia. With the total at 64.5, ECU is 0-6 ATS when total is 63 or higher. Our View- Lean West Virginia covers

(321) CINCINNATI at (322) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET ABCThe way an inexperienced Michigan club manhandled Florida, oddsmakers look to be correct that the Wolverines are reloading and not rebuilding. With Cincinnati thought to be just another AAC squad, Michigan has blown up from -29 to -34. Because the Wolverines will dominate the line of scrimmage, they should pound the Bearcats into submission.Our View- Lean Michigan covers

(323) LOUISVILLE at (324) NORTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET ESPNIf North Carolina could not contain a Cal quarterback playing his first game and permitting 363 passing yards at Chapel Hill, what chance will the Tar Heels have in stopping Louisville’s Lamar Jackson? Not the only one wondering this as the Heisman winner and friends have been bumped up four points to -10. However, that is quite a few points with Louisville only fair defensively. Our View- Lean North Carolina covers

(343) PITTSBURGH at (344) PENN STATE 3:30 ET ABCPenn State was shoved from -17 to -20.5 in this Keystone State clash, having a prolific offense and defense that is good and likely to get better. Pittsburgh is starting over on offense and last year’s 127th ranked pass defense just conceded 311 yards to Youngstown State. This could be blowout and the Nittany Lions are 6-0

ATS after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.Our View- Penn State covers

(363) TCU at (364) ARKANSAS 3:30 ET CBSWhile we understand Arkansas lost potential All-SEC corner Ryan Pulley last week, any one player from the secondary does not dramatically change a line, which made it perplexing why the Razorbacks were shifted from -2.5 to +3 home underdogs versus TCU. The Horn Frogs nearly overcame 13-0 deficit at halftime against the Hogs before losing 41-38 last season, yet TCU is just 1-9 ATS as favorites.Our View- Arkansas covers

NFL(459) PHILADELPHIA at (460) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOXAfter this amount of time it seems clear bettors are not all that excited about Washington going into the season and prefer more from what they have seen from Philadelphia in taking the Redskins from -3 to a Pick. This is contrary to what has happened in recent years where Washington is 5-1 and 6-0 ATS. Our View- Lean Washington covers

(461) ARIZONA at (462) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOXNot sure if football bettors really like Arizona or are just not impressed with Detroit, in flipping the Lions from -2.5 to +1.5. The Cardinals do have explosive elements on offense if they can keep QB Carson Palmer upright. And Detroit did not fix their main defensive shortcoming, rushing the passer. Definitely a tricky line move.Our View- Lean Detroit covers

(463) OAKLAND at (464) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET CBSAre those betting football reading too much into the preseason where Oakland looked poor on defense or are they believing this is a real problem and not willing to over look it even if the Raiders offense is loaded? Oakland has been switched from -1.5 to -2 despite their 11-2 ATS road mark in the AFC.Our View- Oakland covers

(477) N.Y. GIANTS at (478) DALLAS 8:30 ET NBCA great deal of mystery about if all the stars will be out as our newsletter hit the shelves Tuesday night. Will we see Ezekiel Elliott or Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday night? What we do know is Dallas has been dropped three points to -3.5 and that makes all the sense in the world with the Cowboys 10-25 ATS as home favorites under coach Jason Garrett.Our View- Lean New York covers

(481) L.A. CHARGERS at (482) DENVER 10:20 ET ESPNTo wrap it up, Denver opened at -5 and was lowered to -3.5. Despite the Broncos being 18-8 SU at a Mile High over the Chargers, they are only 12-12-2 ATS. Denver has the better defense, but offensively L.A. 2.0 has more weapons at their disposal. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS the last two September’s. Our View- Denver covers

College Best Bets – 2-0College Leans - 3-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES


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VI Jim 4-6 (40%) 1-2 (33%)*

VI Jason 5-5 (50%)2-1 (67%)*

VI Doug 4-6 (40%) 1-2 (33%)*

VIMatt5-5 (50%)2-1 (67%)*

Power Rating 6-4 (60%)

Effective Strength 6-4 (60%)

Bettors Ratings 7-3 (70%)

Consensus 7-3 (70%)

Friday, September 8, 2017 - (303) OKLAHOMA ST at (304) S ALABAMA (+28)S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S

Alabama

S Alabama

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (309) W MICHIGAN at (310) MICHIGAN ST (-7.5)Michigan

St*

Michigan

St

Michigan

St.

W

Michigan

Michigan

St.

Michigan

St.

Michigan

St.

Michigan St

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (323) LOUISVILLE at (324) NORTH CAROLINA (+10)North

Carolina

Louisville* Louisville Louisville North

Carolina

North

Carolina

North

Carolina

North Carolina

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (327) IOWA at (328) IOWA ST (+2.5)Iowa Iowa St Iowa* Iowa* Iowa St Iowa Iowa St Iowa St

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (363) TCU at (364) ARKANSAS (+3)TCU Arkansas Arkansas* Arkansas Arkansas TCU Arkansas Arkansas

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (377) AUBURN at (378) CLEMSON (-5)Clemson* Auburn* Auburn* Auburn Clemson Auburn Clemson Clemson

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (383) OKLAHOMA at (384) OHIO ST (-7)Oklahoma Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St Oklahoma Ohio St Oklahoma Ohio St

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (387) STANFORD at (388) USC (-7)Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (393) SAN DIEGO ST at (394) ARIZONA ST (-4.5)Arizona St Arizona

St*

San

Diego St

San

Diego St*

Arizona St Arizona St Arizona St Arizona St

Saturday, September 9, 2017 - (395) UTAH at (396) BYU (-1.5)BYU* Utah Utah Utah* Utah Utah Utah Utah

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

Jim says…From the looks of it, oddsmakers are still treating Mark Dantonio’s Michigan State team as if it were last December. The Spartans were just 3-9 last season, BUT only brought back 8 starters from that team. To me that is a positive, especially for a program that has been as solid as MSU has prior, and because of the strong recruiting classes that Dantonio has enjoyed. There are a lot of new faces on the field for Sparty in 2017, but that doesn’t mean things will be bad. In fact, they were quite good in the 35-10 rout of Bowling Green last week. Michigan State outgained the Falcons 465-212 in that game. Western Michigan did well to compete with USC last week but catching a TD or so and catching 28 points like they did in LA are two different things. Spartans use home field edge to roll to a victory. Jason says…Louisville will be looking for its fifth straight ATS victory over North Carolina when the teams meet on Saturday. Do I think that’s as important as the thought that QB Lamar Jackson could tear up the UNC defense? No, but it’s a nice factoid to support my case. Here’s the deal…there has to be major concern in Chapel Hill after the Tar Heels allowed 469 yards in the 35-30 loss to Cal, a team whose offense was supposedly rebuilding in the first year of the Justin Wilcox era. At the same time, the Cardinals outgained Purdue 6.6-4.4 in yards per play, yet the score of 35-28 didn’t necessarily reflect that because of four turnovers. Expect a Louisville team that is much more focused on protecting the ball this week, as HC Bobby Petrino’s team takes care of business on the road. Doug says… While I like TCU’s squad, for my money Arkansas is a little further along at this point and is not feeling the effects of a rugged SEC season yet ahead. The Horned Frogs have added size in the middle of the defensive line, yet this is not Bret Bielema’s old teams, where they would line up and try and turn opponents into ground chuck running the ball. The last couple Razorbacks clubs can throw the ball well (sometimes a little too much), which enhances the ability of the offensive line. TCU’s Kenny Hill is just a slightly above average quarterback in my opinion and he will do enough to help and hurt his team in given games. It will be the Hogs by seven or more in Fayetteville.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

21.2% ROI

30.6% ROI

23.3% ROI

25.9% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

33.2% ROI

44.4% ROI

37.5% ROI

72.0% ROI

38.4% ROI

39.6% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

39.2% ROI

44.2% ROI

(303) OKLAHOMA ST AT (304) S ALABAMAOKLAHOMA ST is 49-28-1 ATS(S2000) - as double digit favorite( $1820 Profit with a 21.2% ROI )

(327) IOWA AT (328) IOWA STIOWA is 33-15-1 ATS(L49G) - as favorite of 7 or less points( $1650 Profit with a 30.6% ROI )

(305) FLA ATLANTIC AT (306) WISCONSINWISCONSIN is 55-30-1 ATS(S2000) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $2200 Profit with a 23.3% ROI )

(389) UNLV AT (390) IDAHOUNLV is 31-16 OVER(L5Y) - All Games( $1340 Profit with a 25.9% ROI )

(325) CHARLOTTE AT (326) KANSAS STKANSAS ST is 30-13 OVER(L50G) at HOME - As favorite( $1570 Profit with a 33.2% ROI )

(357) NEBRASKA AT (358) OREGONOREGON is 32-10-1 OVER(L50G) at HOME - as favorite of more than 7 points( $2100 Profit with a 44.4% ROI )

(317) SOUTH FLORIDA AT (318) CONNECTICUTCONNECTICUT is 14-36 ATS(L5Y) - All Games( $2060 Profit with a 37.5% ROI )

(331) NEW MEXICO ST AT (332) NEW MEXICONEW MEXICO ST is 2-22-1 ATS(L25G) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(CS)( $1980 Profit with a 72.0% ROI )

(379) GEORGIA AT (380) NOTRE DAMEGEORGIA is 13-35-1 ATS(L50G) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per attempt(CS)( $2070 Profit with a 38.4% ROI )

(483) MEMPHIS AT (484) UCFUCF is 28-10-1 UNDER(L50G) - In September( $1700 Profit with a 39.6% ROI )

(345) FRESNO ST AT (346) ALABAMAALABAMA is 35-13 UNDER(L50G) at HOME - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(CS)( $2070 Profit with a 39.2% ROI )

(395) UTAH AT (396) BYUBYU is 37-12 UNDER(L50G) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS)( $2380 Profit with a 44.2% ROI )


21


In last week’s season opening Weekly, we detailed our method for determining college football program stability and stressed how important it was in handicapping early season games. We posted the top 9 stability mismatches of last week and those plays went 5-3 ATS, with the Houston-UTSA qualifying game being postponed. If you did any regression on the four August Saturday games, you would have seen that Stanford also qualified with a “7” advantage over Rice. Thus our season record stands at 6-3 ATS. For week 2, there are 12 plays that meet our requisite advantage of 7 Stability Points. Note that we have made a

couple adjustments due to the quarterback injuries at Florida State and Georgia. Here are the plays for week 2:

T-1. (391) MINNESOTA at (392) OREGON ST - Stability Advantage: OREGON ST by 14T-1. (397) HOUSTON at (398) ARIZONA - Stability Advantage: ARIZONA by 14T-1. (351) TX-SAN ANTONIO at (352) BAYLOR - Stability Advantage: TX-SAN ANTONIO by 14T-4. (341) INDIANA at (342) VIRGINIA - Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA by 10T-4. (301) OHIO U at (302) PURDUE - Stability Advantage: OHIO U by 10T-6. (309) W MICHIGAN at (310) MICHIGAN ST - Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN ST by 9T-6. (337) UAB at (338) BALL ST - Stability Advantage: BALL ST by 9T-6. (369) TOLEDO at (370) NEVADA - Stability Advantage: TOLEDO by 9T-9. (321) CINCINNATI at (322) MICHIGAN - Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN by 8T-9. (343) PITTSBURGH at (344) PENN ST - Stability Advantage: PENN ST by 8T-9. (395) UTAH at (396) BYU - Stability Advantage: BYU by 812. (379) GEORGIA at (380) NOTRE DAME - Stability Advantage: GEORGIA by 7

TOP 12 COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY MISMATCHES FOR WEEK 2

2016 Ret TOTAL 2016 Ret TOTALTeam (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC?QB? Strs STABILITY Team (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC?QB? Strs STABILITY

AIR FORCE (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 4 0 (7) 14 MISSOURI (SEC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17AKRON (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 N ILLINOIS (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12ALABAMA (SEC) 14-1 4 0 3 4 2 (11) 13 NAVY (AMER ATH) 9-5 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12APPALACHIAN ST (SBC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 NC STATE (ACC) 7-6 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18ARIZONA (PAC 12) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 NEBRASKA (BIG TEN) 9-4 4 3 0 0 2 (10) 9ARIZONA ST (PAC 12) 5-7 4 0 0 4 3 (15) 11 NEVADA (MTN WEST) 5-7 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7ARKANSAS (SEC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 3 (13) 14 NEW MEXICO (MTN WEST) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16ARKANSAS ST (SBC) 8-5 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 NEW MEXICO ST (SBC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17ARMY (IND) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 NORTH CAROLINA (ACC) 8-5 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9AUBURN (SEC) 8-5 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14 NORTH TEXAS (CUSA) 5-8 4 3 3 4 2 (11) 16BALL ST (MAC) 4-8 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13 NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17BAYLOR (BIG 12) 7-6 0 0 0 0 3 (13) 3 NOTRE DAME (IND) 4-8 4 0 0 0 3 (15) 7BOISE ST (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15 OHIO ST (BIG TEN) 11-2 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC) 7-6 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 OHIO U (MAC) 8-6 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17BOWLING GREEN (MAC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OKLAHOMA (BIG 12) 11-2 0 3 3 4 3 (16) 13BUFFALO (MAC) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 OKLAHOMA ST (BIG 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16BYU (IND) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OLD DOMINION (CUSA) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (14) 13C MICHIGAN (MAC) 6-7 4 0 3 0 3 (15) 10 OLE MISS (SEC) 5-7 0 0 0 0 2 (11) 2CALIFORNIA (PAC 12) 5-7 0 0 0 0 3 (14) 3 OREGON (PAC 12) 4-8 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8CHARLOTTE (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OREGON ST (PAC 12) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17CINCINNATI (AMER ATH) 4-8 0 0 0 4 2 (10) 6 PENN ST (BIG TEN) 11-3 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17CLEMSON (ACC) 14-1 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 PITTSBURGH (ACC) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9COASTAL CAROLINA (SBC) 10-2 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 PURDUE (BIG TEN) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (13) 7COLORADO (PAC 12) 10-4 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9 RICE (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 0 0 3 (16) 10COLORADO ST (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 RUTGERS (BIG TEN) 2-10 4 0 3 4 3 (14) 14CONNECTICUT (AMER ATH) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7 S ALABAMA (SBC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16DUKE (ACC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 SAN DIEGO ST (MTN WEST) 11-3 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13E MICHIGAN (MAC) 7-6 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14 SAN JOSE ST (MTN WEST) 4-8 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3EAST CAROLINA (AMER ATH) 3-9 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 SMU (AMER ATH) 5-7 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17FLA ATLANTIC (CUSA) 3-9 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8 SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17FLA INTERNATIONAL (CUSA) 4-8 0 0 0 4 3 (15) 7 SOUTH FLORIDA (AMER ATH) 11-2 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7FLORIDA (SEC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14 SOUTHERN MISS (CUSA) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12FLORIDA ST (ACC) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 STANFORD (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17FRESNO ST (MTN WEST) 1-11 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7 SYRACUSE (ACC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 4 (19) 18GA SOUTHERN (SBC) 5-7 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9 TCU (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18GEORGIA (SEC) 8-5 4 3 3 0 4 (17) 14 TEMPLE (AMER ATH) 10-4 0 0 0 0 2 (10) 2GEORGIA ST (SBC) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7 TENNESSEE (SEC) 9-4 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10GEORGIA TECH (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13 TEXAS (BIG 12) 5-7 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8HAWAII (MTN WEST) 7-7 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11 TEXAS A&M (SEC) 8-5 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12HOUSTON (AMER ATH) 9-4 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3 TEXAS ST UNIV (SBC) 2-10 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10IDAHO (SBC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) 5-7 4 3 3 0 3 (14) 13ILLINOIS (BIG TEN) 3-9 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 TOLEDO (MAC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16INDIANA (BIG TEN) 6-7 0 0 0 4 3 (15) 7 TROY (SBC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17IOWA (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 TULANE (AMER ATH) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17IOWA ST (BIG 12) 3-9 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 TULSA (AMER ATH) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13KANSAS (BIG 12) 2-10 4 0 3 4 3 (13) 14 TX-SAN ANTONIO (CUSA) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17KANSAS ST (BIG 12) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 UAB (CUSA) N/A 4 0 0 0 0 (4) 4KENT ST (MAC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 UCF (AMER ATH) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17KENTUCKY (SEC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 4 (17) 15 UCLA (PAC 12) 4-8 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14LA LAFAYETTE (SBC) 6-7 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10 UNLV (MTN WEST) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16LA MONROE (SBC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 USC (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16LOUISIANA TECH (CUSA) 9-5 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 UTAH (PAC 12) 9-4 4 0 3 0 1 (9) 8LOUISVILLE (ACC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13 UTAH ST (MTN WEST) 3-9 4 0 3 4 2 (10) 13LSU (SEC) 8-4 4 0 3 4 2 (11) 13 UTEP (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16MARSHALL (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 VANDERBILT (SEC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17MARYLAND (BIG TEN) 6-7 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13 VIRGINIA (ACC) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17MASSACHUSETTS (IND) 2-10 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14 VIRGINIA TECH (ACC) 10-4 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12MEMPHIS (AMER ATH) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 W KENTUCKY (CUSA) 11-3 0 0 0 4 2 (10) 6MIAMI FL (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 W MICHIGAN (MAC) 13-1 0 0 0 0 2 (12) 2MIAMI OHIO (MAC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 WAKE FOREST (ACC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14MICHIGAN (BIG TEN) 10-3 4 3 3 4 0 (5) 14 WASHINGTON (PAC 12) 12-2 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17MICHIGAN ST (BIG TEN) 3-9 4 3 3 0 1 (9) 11 WASHINGTON ST (PAC 12) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17MIDDLE TENN ST (CUSA) 8-5 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13 WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12) 10-3 4 0 3 0 1 (8) 8MINNESOTA (BIG TEN) 9-4 0 0 0 0 3 (13) 3 WISCONSIN (BIG TEN) 11-3 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14MISSISSIPPI ST (SEC) 6-7 4 3 0 4 3 (13) 14 WYOMING (MTN WEST) 8-6 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14

Change? (0-yes) Change? (0-yes)

22




COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(301) OHIO U [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (302) PURDUE (-4 | 57) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 8, 2017 8:00 PM on FS1 - ROSS-ADE STADIUM (WEST LAFAYETTE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO U 59.0 22 53-248 [4.7] 19-13-172 [9.1] 7.1 0.0 7 31-68 [2.2] 24-6-40 [1.7] 0.0 +1 +59.0 PURDUE 28.0 25 21-51 [2.4] 57-33-293 [5.1] 12.3 35.0 27 33-146 [4.4] 46-30-378 [8.2] 15.0 -1 -7.0

GAME TRENDS• PURDUE is 12-2-1 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against elite defensive teams yielding less than 4.4

yards per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADNo Recent Head-Head Games

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge OHIO U 56 36 24.6 27.2 PURDUE -4.5 35 -1.8 30.9 29.9

(303) OKLAHOMA ST (-28 | 66) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (304) S ALABAMA [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 8, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPN2 - LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM (MOBILE, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA ST (11) 59.0 25 37-332 [9.0] 26-21-308 [11.8] 10.8 24.0 26 60-244 [4.1] 38-20-188 [4.9] 18.0 0 +35.0 S ALABAMA 27.0 25 37-170 [4.6] 31-19-204 [6.6] 13.9 47.0 23 29-102 [3.5] 35-28-429 [12.3] 11.3 +1 -20.0

Oklahoma State showed who they were in their opening game win over Tulsa and will look to improve on the road in Mobile, AL. The Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph said he spent the off-season working on accuracy and deep ball throwing and results were positive, plus it helps he has pass-catchers who will know how to get open and will fight for the ball. Okie State still has defensive concerns and will have to slow the Jaguars running game to beat huge road spread, however, they are 27-8 ATS after scoring 50+ points. Though South Alabama covered against Ole Miss, they allowed 15.3 YPC and Oklahoma State can better that number. The Jaguars are 3-12 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

GAME TRENDS• OKLAHOMA ST is 16-6 ATS(S2000) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by

more than 13.5 points per game(CS)• S ALABAMA is 3-8 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Non-conference games• OKLAHOMA ST is 18-3 OVER(S2000) - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 7.9 yards

per attempt(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge OKLAHOMA ST (11) -28 56 39.6 42.9 S ALABAMA 66 30 23 SAL 22.4 SAL 19

(483) MEMPHIS [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (484) UCF (-3 | 67.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 8, 2017 6:30 PM on ESPNN - BRIGHT HOUSE NETWORKS STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MEMPHIS 37.0 16 39-319 [8.2] 25-10-97 [3.9] 11.2 29.0 25 49-146 [3.0] 37-21-279 [7.5] 14.7 +2 +8.0 UCF 61.0 31 45-148 [3.3] 33-26-439 [13.3] 9.6 17.0 13 26-134 [5.2] 31-18-201 [6.5] 19.7 +2 +44.0

GAME TRENDS• MEMPHIS is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) on ROAD - Conference games

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-10-05 UCF (24) at MEMPHIS (17) +10 48.5 MEMPHIS HOME DOG UNDER 2012-10-20 UCF (35) at MEMPHIS (17) +24 50.0 MEMPHIS HOME DOG OVER 2011-10-29 MEMPHIS (0) at UCF (41) -29.5 48.0 UCF HOME FAV UNDER 2010-11-27 UCF (37) at MEMPHIS (17) +26.5 55.0 MEMPHIS HOME DOG UNDER 2009-10-03 MEMPHIS (14) at UCF (32) -7 46.0 UCF HOME FAV xxxx





23


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MEMPHIS 68.5 45 31.1 32.7 UCF -1.5 43 -1 33.1 31.8

HOME teams are on a 8-1 ATS run in MEM-UCF series since ‘05

(305) FLA ATLANTIC [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (306) WISCONSIN (-31.5 | 58.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on BTN - CAMP RANDALL STADIUM (MADISON, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLA ATLANTIC 19.0 16 24-40 [1.7] 33-21-286 [8.7] 17.2 42.0 23 68-416 [6.1] 10-3-110 [11.0] 12.5 0 -23.0WISCONSIN (9) 59.0 25 45-234 [5.2] 23-15-244 [10.6] 8.1 10.0 16 27-85 [3.1] 41-25-219 [5.3] 30.4 +2 +49.0

GAME TRENDS• FL ATLANTIC is 19-5 UNDER(L25G) on ROAD - In September


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge FLA ATLANTIC 57.5 27 10 9.6 WISCONSIN (9) -31.5 59.5 -36.3 WIS 46.5 WIS 46.1 WIS

(307) BUFFALO [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (308) ARMY (-16.5 | 49) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on CBSSN - MICHIE STADIUM (WEST POINT, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 7.0 13 22-51 [2.3] 42-22-211 [5.0] 37.4 17.0 21 51-169 [3.3] 32-19-239 [7.5] 24.0 0 -10.0ARMY 64.0 22 47-513 [10.9] 2-0-0 [0.0] 8.0 6.0 20 34-66 [1.9] 41-28-240 [5.9] 51.0 0 +58.0

GAME TRENDS• ARMY is 4-9-1 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against inept offensive teams averaging less than 4.5 yards

per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-24 ARMY (20) at BUFFALO (23) +13.5 50.5 BUFFALO HOME DOG UNDER 2014-09-06 BUFFALO (39) at ARMY (47) -3 53.0 ARMY HOME FAV OVER 2008-10-18 ARMY (24) at BUFFALO (27) -11 46.0 ARMY ROAD DOG OVER 2001-11-10 BUFFALO (26) at ARMY (19) -15.5 53.5 BUFFALO ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge BUFFALO 49 26.5 17.9 16.2 ARMY -16.5 40 -16.8 33.5 34.5

(309) W MICHIGAN [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (310) MICHIGAN ST (-7 | 51.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on BTN - SPARTAN STADIUM (EAST LANSING, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN 31.0 24 48-263 [5.5] 23-12-94 [4.1] 11.5 49.0 25 34-232 [6.8] 33-23-289 [8.8] 10.6 +1 -18.0MICHIGAN ST 35.0 25 46-215 [4.7] 36-22-250 [6.9] 13.3 10.0 9 24-67 [2.8] 31-10-145 [4.7] 21.2 -2 +25.0

It seems odd to say, but we will have a better idea about who Michigan State is after they face Western Michigan. The Spartans packed away Bowling Green in the second half 35-10 and played more like the team we are used to seeing. Brian Lewerke appeared to be the steadying presence Michigan State needs at quarterback, however, as we witnessed last the Broncos still have scoring punch, hanging 31 on USC. Michigan State will need to show their dominance at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to emerge victorious and beat the number. Remember this, Sparty 3-11 ATS in the first portion of the schedule lately and Western Mich. the opposite at 11-3 ATS.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS




24




GAME TRENDS• W MICHIGAN is 14-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)• MICHIGAN ST is 2-9 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Before playing NOTRE DAME• MICHIGAN ST is 12-3 UNDER(S2000) - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 8.3

yards per attempt(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2015-09-04 MICHIGAN ST (37) at W MICHIGAN (24) +17.5 57.5 W MICHIGAN HOME DOG OVER 2013-08-30 W MICHIGAN (13) at MICHIGAN ST (26) -27.5 44.5 W MICHIGAN ROAD DOG UNDER 2010-09-04 W MICHIGAN (14) at MICHIGAN ST (38) -22.5 51.0 MICHIGAN ST HOME FAV OVER 2009-11-07 W MICHIGAN (14) at MICHIGAN ST (49) -20.5 55.5 MICHIGAN ST HOME FAV OVER 2003-08-30 W MICHIGAN (21) at MICHIGAN ST (26) -13.5 58.0 W MICHIGAN ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge W MICHIGAN 51.5 39 22.2 21.2 MICHIGAN ST -7.5 44.5 -9 29.8 30.6

(311) E MICHIGAN [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (312) RUTGERS (-5 | 51) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on BTN - HIGH POINT SOLUTIONS STADIUM (PISCATAWAY, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF E MICHIGAN 24.0 19 41-126 [3.1] 31-22-267 [8.6] 16.4 7.0 13 35-166 [4.7] 29-12-114 [3.9] 40.0 +1 +17.0 RUTGERS 14.0 19 42-131 [3.1] 35-24-178 [5.1] 22.1 30.0 17 24-84 [3.5] 30-17-284 [9.5] 12.3 -2 -16.0

GAME TRENDS• RUTGERS is 13-2 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.4

yards per carry(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-09-14 E MICHIGAN (10) at RUTGERS (28) -28 54.0 E MICHIGAN ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge E MICHIGAN 53 31 24.2 24.9 RUTGERS -5 30.5 -3.3 29.8 29.9

(313) OLD DOMINION (-4 | 60) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (314) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:0-2 | ATS:0-2]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM - WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM (AMHERST, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OLD DOMINION 31.0 15 31-98 [3.2] 26-18-187 [7.2] 9.2 17.0 18 41-115 [2.8] 31-13-160 [5.2] 16.2 -2 +14.0 MASSACHUSETTS 31.5 21 33-97 [2.9] 39-24-330 [8.4] 13.6 38.0 19 41-216 [5.3] 28-17-235 [8.4] 11.9 -3 -6.5

GAME TRENDS• OLD DOMINION is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3

yards per point(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-07 MASSACHUSETTS (16) at OLD DOMINION (36) -7 52.5 OLD DOMINION HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge OLD DOMINION -3.5 34 31.7 34.8 MASSACHUSETTS 61.5 26.5 5 29.8 29.4

(315) NORTHWESTERN (-3 | 55) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (316) DUKE [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPNU - WALLACE WADE STADIUM (DURHAM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTHWESTERN 31.0 27 50-156 [3.1] 38-28-352 [9.3] 16.4 20.0 19 26-142 [5.5] 37-16-199 [5.4] 17.1 0 +11.0 DUKE 60.0 30 47-243 [5.2] 34-26-281 [8.3] 8.7 7.0 8 31-64 [2.1] 18-11-94 [5.2] 22.6 +1 +53.0






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GAME TRENDS• NORTHWESTERN is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) - In September

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 DUKE (13) at NORTHWESTERN (24) -4 44.5 NORTHWESTERN HOME FAV UNDER 2015-09-19 NORTHWESTERN (19) at DUKE (10) -3.5 50.0 NORTHWESTERN ROAD DOG UNDER 2008-09-06 NORTHWESTERN (24) at DUKE (20) +5.5 44.0 DUKE HOME DOG xxxx 2007-09-15 DUKE (20) at NORTHWESTERN (14) -16.5 52.5 DUKE ROAD DOG UNDER 2003-09-20 NORTHWESTERN (28) at DUKE (10) -3 51.0 NORTHWESTERN ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NORTHWESTERN -3 49 26.4 26.2 DUKE 55 46 -0.3 28.3 DUKE 26.7

UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS in L6 of NW-DUKE seriesUNDER the total is 6-0-1 in L7 of NW-DUKE series

(317) SOUTH FLORIDA (-17.5 | 66) [SU:2-0 | ATS:0-2] AT (318) CONNECTICUT [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPNN - RENTSCHLER FIELD (HARTFORD, CT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH FLORIDA (21) 36.5 25 61-234 [3.8] 29-16-209 [7.2] 12.1 19.5 16 37-100 [2.7] 42-21-207 [4.9] 15.7 +4 +17.0 CONNECTICUT 27.0 18 37-160 [4.3] 41-28-278 [6.8] 16.2 20.0 24 26-89 [3.4] 56-33-358 [6.4] 22.4 -1 +7.0

GAME TRENDS• CONNECTICUT is 13-2 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 CONNECTICUT (27) at SOUTH FLORIDA (42) -20.5 54.0 CONNECTICUT ROAD DOG OVER 2015-10-17 SOUTH FLORIDA (28) at CONNECTICUT (20) PK 44.0 SOUTH FLORIDA ROAD xxx OVER 2014-09-19 CONNECTICUT (14) at SOUTH FLORIDA (17) -1.5 42.0 SOUTH FLORIDA HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-12 SOUTH FLORIDA (13) at CONNECTICUT (10) -3.5 40.5 SOUTH FLORIDA ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-11-03 CONNECTICUT (6) at SOUTH FLORIDA (13) -7 46.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge SOUTH FLORIDA (21) -17.5 47.5 40.3 UNDER 41.8 UNDER CONNECTICUT 68 24.5 20 20.9 21.5

UNDERDOGS are 5-1-2 ATS in L8 of USF-CON series

(319) EAST CAROLINA [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (320) WEST VIRGINIA (-24 | 65) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on FS2 - MILAN PUSKAR STADIUM (MORGANTOWN, WV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF EAST CAROLINA 14.0 28 30-80 [2.7] 53-28-292 [5.5] 26.6 34.0 23 44-422 [9.6] 22-15-192 [8.7] 18.1 -2 -20.0WEST VIRGINIA 24.0 29 35-221 [6.3] 54-31-371 [6.9] 24.7 31.0 21 45-234 [5.2] 27-15-235 [8.7] 15.1 -1 -7.0

GAME TRENDS• WEST VIRGINIA is 2-11-1 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more

than 16.70 yards per point(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2009-09-12 EAST CAROLINA (20) at WEST VIRGINIA (35) -5.5 43.5 WEST VIRGINIA HOME FAV OVER 2008-09-06 * EAST CAROLINA (24) vs WEST VIRGINIA (3) -7 47.5 EAST CAROLINA xxxx DOG UNDER 2007-09-22 EAST CAROLINA (7) at WEST VIRGINIA (48) -24 59.0 WEST VIRGINIA HOME FAV UNDER 2006-09-23 WEST VIRGINIA (27) at EAST CAROLINA (10) +21 57.0 EAST CAROLINA HOME DOG UNDER 2005-09-24 EAST CAROLINA (15) at WEST VIRGINIA (20) -24 52.0 EAST CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER




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STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge EAST CAROLINA 64 32 ECU 23.7 ECU 21.9 ECU WEST VIRGINIA -24.5 46.5 -18.3 41.8 38.8

WEST VIRGINIA is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS hosting ECU since ‘00

(321) CINCINNATI [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (322) MICHIGAN (-34 | 49.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on ABC - MICHIGAN STADIUM (ANN ARBOR, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 26.0 15 29-97 [3.3] 28-17-151 [5.4] 9.5 14.0 20 60-224 [3.7] 19-9-89 [4.7] 22.4 +2 +12.0 MICHIGAN (8) 33.0 19 49-215 [4.4] 26-12-218 [8.4] 13.1 17.0 9 27-11 [0.4] 26-14-181 [7.0] 11.3 +1 +16.0

GAME TRENDS• MICHIGAN is 11-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7

points per game(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge CINCINNATI 49.5 33 5.5 8.5 MICHIGAN (8) -34 59.5 -30.3 44.6 MICH 38.3

(323) LOUISVILLE (-9.5 | 64.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (324) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPN - KENAN STADIUM (CHAPEL HILL, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISVILLE (17) 35.0 27 33-146 [4.4] 46-30-378 [8.2] 15.0 28.0 25 21-51 [2.4] 57-33-293 [5.1] 12.3 +1 +7.0 NORTH CAROLINA 30.0 28 45-219 [4.9] 44-25-221 [5.0] 14.7 35.0 20 35-106 [3.0] 38-24-363 [9.6] 13.4 -1 -5.0

Lamar Jackson was not perfect for Louisville, nonetheless, his 485 yards of offense carried the Cardinals to victory over Purdue. Jackson will not be the problem if Louisville does not contend in the ACC Atlantic, now that Deondre Francois is done for FSU. The Cards cannot fumble inside the five-yard line like they did twice in Indianapolis. The ‘Ville does come in at 9-0 ATS on the road off a 10+ point spread setback. North Carolina’s pass defense was no match for a talented inexperienced Cal quarterback and it will be a great deal more challenging dealing with Mr. Heisman. The Tar Heels will move the ball and are 9-1 ATS off one or more spread losses. With these squads, turnovers will decide outcome.

GAME TRENDS• NORTH CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards

per attempt(CS)• LOUISVILLE is 4-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• LOUISVILLE is 11-2 UNDER(S2000) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than

5.7 yards per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2012-09-15 NORTH CAROLINA (34) at LOUISVILLE (39) -3 56.0 LOUISVILLE HOME FAV OVER 2011-10-08 LOUISVILLE (7) at NORTH CAROLINA (14) -13.5 46.0 LOUISVILLE ROAD DOG UNDER 2005-10-08 NORTH CAROLINA (14) at LOUISVILLE (69) -14 62.0 LOUISVILLE HOME FAV OVER 2004-09-25 LOUISVILLE (34) at NORTH CAROLINA (0) +9 66.5 LOUISVILLE ROAD FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge LOUISVILLE (17) -10 55 37.4 34.5 NORTH CAROLINA 63.5 46 5.3 UNC 27.7 28.3

LOUISVILLE is on a 4-0 ATS run versus UNC





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(325) CHARLOTTE [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (326) KANSAS ST (-36 | 51) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM - BILL SNYDER STADIUM (MANHATTAN, KS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHARLOTTE 7.0 13 35-166 [4.7] 29-12-114 [3.9] 40.0 24.0 19 41-126 [3.1] 31-22-267 [8.6] 16.4 -1 -17.0KANSAS ST (19) 55.0 16 31-186 [6.0] 16-10-333 [20.8] 9.4 19.0 28 55-223 [4.1] 35-27-198 [5.7] 22.2 +3 +36.0

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 11-1 OVER(S2000) at HOME - Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more

than 16.70 yards per point(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge CHARLOTTE 54 20 8.7 10.1 KANSAS ST (19) -36 52.5 -36.5 45.3 46.9

(327) IOWA (-3 | 48) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (328) IOWA ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF IOWA 24.0 16 41-138 [3.4] 15-8-125 [8.3] 11.0 3.0 15 30-59 [2.0] 40-23-174 [4.3] 77.7 -2 +21.0 IOWA ST 42.0 24 35-134 [3.8] 36-27-271 [7.5] 9.6 24.0 21 22-119 [5.4] 38-23-259 [6.8] 15.8 +2 +18.0

Iowa was on numerous bettors ‘upset alert’ against Wyoming and that was proven unnecessary as the Iowa defense dominated talented QB Josh Allen. Offensively, the Hawkeyes will get beat in Ames if they commit four turnovers again like they did last week. Iowa has a new group on offense and that will take some time to develop continuity and for the most part the spread reflects that. Iowa is 7-5 SU and ATS in Ames recently. Iowa State won and covered versus Northern Iowa and will try and build on that and have a Hawkeye State sweep. The Cyclones have the offense to match points with their rival and cannot turn this into a grinder. The home team is just 3-6 ATS.

GAME TRENDS• IOWA is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - As favorite• IOWA ST is 5-11-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35 yards per

point(CS)• IOWA ST is 8-2 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.4

yards per carry(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 IOWA ST (3) at IOWA (42) -15 50.0 IOWA HOME FAV UNDER 2015-09-12 IOWA (31) at IOWA ST (17) +3.5 47.5 IOWA ROAD FAV OVER 2014-09-13 IOWA ST (20) at IOWA (17) -13 49.0 IOWA ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-09-14 IOWA (27) at IOWA ST (21) PK 46.5 IOWA ROAD xxx OVER 2012-09-08 IOWA ST (9) at IOWA (6) -3.5 48.5 IOWA ST ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge IOWA -2.5 47 26.1 27.8 OVER IOWA ST 48 43 1.3 22.5 25.8

ROAD teams are 10-5 ATS in the IOWA-ISU series since ‘02

(329) WAKE FOREST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (330) BOSTON COLLEGE (-1 | 43) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 1:00 PM on ACCN - ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WAKE FOREST 51.0 28 45-248 [5.5] 27-20-239 [8.9] 9.5 7.0 12 45-207 [4.6] 9-2-41 [4.6] 35.4 0 +44.0 BOSTON COLLEGE 23.0 21 50-148 [3.0] 42-26-191 [4.5] 14.7 20.0 18 35-164 [4.7] 39-16-203 [5.2] 18.4 0 +3.0

GAME TRENDS• BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-0 UNDER(L3Y) - As favorite





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RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-26 BOSTON COLLEGE (17) at WAKE FOREST (14) -3 34.5 BOSTON COLLEGE ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-10-10 WAKE FOREST (3) at BOSTON COLLEGE (0) -9.5 35.5 WAKE FOREST ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-25 BOSTON COLLEGE (23) at WAKE FOREST (17) +13 41.0 WAKE FOREST HOME DOG UNDER 2013-09-06 WAKE FOREST (10) at BOSTON COLLEGE (24) -2.5 47.5 BOSTON COLLEGE HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-03 BOSTON COLLEGE (14) at WAKE FOREST (28) -3.5 53.0 WAKE FOREST HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge WAKE FOREST 43.5 43.5 23 23.6 BOSTON COLLEGE -1 40.5 -0.5 22.3 23.9

The L7 games in the WAKE-BC series went UNDER the total

(331) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (332) NEW MEXICO (-7.5 | 68) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 8:00 PM - DREAMSTYLE STADIUM (ALBUQUERQUE, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO ST 31.0 27 30-151 [5.0] 58-40-398 [6.9] 17.7 37.0 19 40-79 [2.0] 30-24-321 [10.7] 10.8 -2 -6.0 NEW MEXICO 38.0 21 40-259 [6.5] 18-12-222 [12.3] 12.7 14.0 20 21-8 [0.4] 55-35-274 [5.0] 20.1 +1 +24.0

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than

29 PPG(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 NEW MEXICO (31) at NEW MEXICO ST (32) +11 61.0 NEW MEXICO ST HOME DOG OVER 2015-10-03 NEW MEXICO ST (29) at NEW MEXICO (38) -10.5 66.0 NEW MEXICO ST ROAD DOG OVER 2014-09-20 NEW MEXICO (38) at NEW MEXICO ST (35) +4 63.0 NEW MEXICO ST HOME DOG OVER 2013-10-05 NEW MEXICO ST (17) at NEW MEXICO (66) -12 59.0 NEW MEXICO HOME FAV OVER 2012-09-22 NEW MEXICO (27) at NEW MEXICO ST (14) -5 56.0 NEW MEXICO ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NEW MEXICO ST 68 27 27.7 29.4 NEW MEXICO -7.5 33 -9 37.5 37.8

Nine of the L12 NM-NMSU h2h games have gone OVER the total

(333) RICE [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (334) UTEP (-1.5 | 55.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 8:00 PM - SUN BOWL (EL PASO, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RICE 7.0 14 38-146 [3.8] 24-10-95 [4.0] 34.4 62.0 27 36-287 [8.0] 37-21-369 [10.0] 10.6 -2 -55.0UTEP 7.0 11 21-73 [3.5] 27-16-94 [3.5] 23.9 56.0 35 38-180 [4.7] 36-32-496 [13.8] 12.1 -1 -49.0

GAME TRENDS• RICE is 10-2 OVER(S2000) on ROAD - Against inept offensive teams averaging less than 4.5 yards

per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-19 UTEP (24) at RICE (44) -2.5 55.0 RICE HOME FAV OVER 2015-11-06 RICE (21) at UTEP (24) +4.5 56.5 UTEP HOME DOG UNDER 2014-11-21 UTEP (13) at RICE (31) -7.5 48.5 RICE HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-26 UTEP (7) at RICE (45) -19 58.5 RICE HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-24 RICE (33) at UTEP (24) -1 56.5 RICE ROAD DOG OVER





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STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge RICE -1.5 24.5 29.3 30.2 OVER UTEP 57 21.5 -0.3 28 32.1

RICE has owned UTEP of late, 12-2 ATS since ‘02

(335) TEXAS ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (336) COLORADO (-35.5 | 58) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 2:00 PM on PAC12 - FOLSOM FIELD (BOULDER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS ST 20.0 18 41-155 [3.8] 28-18-135 [4.8] 14.5 11.0 20 40-59 [1.5] 34-21-199 [5.9] 23.5 -1 +9.0 COLORADO 17.0 19 38-143 [3.8] 29-21-202 [7.0] 20.3 3.0 23 33-88 [2.7] 47-24-309 [6.6] 132.3 +1 +14.0

GAME TRENDS• COLORADO is 7-17-1 ATS(L25G) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TEXAS ST 54 16 7.4 11.8 COLORADO -35.5 49 -32.8 47.1 43.6

(337) UAB [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (338) BALL ST (-14 | 54.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:00 PM on ESPN3 - SCHEUMANN STADIUM (MUNCIE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UAB 38.0 23 58-259 [4.5] 22-12-165 [7.5] 11.2 7.0 9 33-45 [1.4] 29-13-138 [4.8] 26.1 0 +31.0 BALL ST 21.0 21 51-171 [3.4] 34-21-204 [6.0] 17.9 24.0 14 30-71 [2.4] 19-10-145 [7.6] 9.0 -1 -3.0

GAME TRENDS• BALL ST is 9-2 UNDER(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge UAB 55.5 19.5 21.9 21.1 BALL ST -14 30.5 -14.5 34.1 36.2

(339) MIDDLE TENN ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (340) SYRACUSE (-9.5 | 73) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on ACCN - CARRIER DOME (SYRACUSE, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIDDLE TENN ST 6.0 14 26-49 [1.9] 31-18-166 [5.4] 35.8 28.0 15 35-71 [2.0] 28-20-296 [10.6] 13.1 -1 -22.0SYRACUSE 50.0 34 41-155 [3.8] 52-37-431 [8.3] 11.7 7.0 8 30-54 [1.8] 27-12-113 [4.2] 23.9 -1 +43.0

GAME TRENDS• SYRACUSE is 9-2 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MIDDLE TENN ST 73 33.5 28.9 UNDER 28 SYRACUSE -8.5 43.5 -13.3 SYR 38.4 42.8 SYR





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(341) INDIANA (-3 | 57) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (342) VIRGINIA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on ACCN - SCOTT STADIUM (CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANA 21.0 25 27-17 [0.6] 68-42-420 [6.2] 20.8 49.0 26 51-292 [5.7] 35-20-304 [8.7] 12.2 -3 -28.0VIRGINIA 28.0 19 32-92 [2.9] 40-27-262 [6.5] 12.6 10.0 12 41-168 [4.1] 13-7-72 [5.5] 24.0 +1 +18.0

GAME TRENDS• VIRGINIA is 14-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2011-09-10 VIRGINIA (34) at INDIANA (31) +7 55.0 INDIANA HOME DOG OVER 2009-10-10 INDIANA (7) at VIRGINIA (47) -7 47.0 VIRGINIA HOME FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge INDIANA -3.5 43 27.9 27.4 VIRGINIA 56.5 39.5 0.3 30.1 VIR 26.4

(343) PITTSBURGH [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (344) PENN ST (-20.5 | 67.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on ABC - BEAVER STADIUM (UNIVERSITY PARK, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 28.0 24 53-208 [3.9] 24-17-140 [5.8] 12.4 21.0 19 26-107 [4.1] 32-18-311 [9.7] 19.9 0 +7.0 PENN ST (4) 52.0 24 34-247 [7.3] 31-21-322 [10.4] 10.9 0.0 12 34-73 [2.1] 29-14-86 [3.0] 0.0 0 +52.0

Penn State had not begun to believe in themselves in this Keystone State connection a year ago, but played a strong second half in losing at Pitt 42-39. Now in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions are Top 10 material and the Panthers reconstructed offense from last season needed OT to hold off Youngstown State. The dynamic dual of RB Saquon Barkley and QB Trace McSorley lead the Lions and the defensive front seven is expected to only improve as the season goes forward. Penn State is 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in their previous contest. For Pittsburgh to stay in this battle, they will need to move the chains running to chew up the clock and have pass rush.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• PENN ST is 9-15-1 ATS(L25G) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 9-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.3 yards per

play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 PENN ST (39) at PITTSBURGH (42) -3 44.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx OVER 2000-09-16 PENN ST (0) at PITTSBURGH (12) +5.5 46.5 PITTSBURGH HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge PITTSBURGH 68 47.5 PIT 26.4 PITT 26.2 PENN ST (4) -20.5 59.5 -15.5 39.9 42.8

(345) FRESNO ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (346) ALABAMA (-44 | 54) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN2 - BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM (TUSCALOOSA, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FRESNO ST 66.0 26 40-199 [5.0] 37-23-414 [11.2] 9.3 0.0 8 26--7 [-0.3] 31-15-155 [5.0] 0.0 +2 +66.0 ALABAMA (1) 24.0 13 42-173 [4.1] 18-10-96 [5.3] 11.2 7.0 15 27-40 [1.5] 33-19-210 [6.4] 35.7 +3 +17.0

GAME TRENDS• ALABAMA is 9-1 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - as favorite of more than 14 points




Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF


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STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge FRESNO ST 54 31 6.9 4.6 ALABAMA (1) -44 68.5 -41.3 47.4 45.1

(347) TULANE [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (348) NAVY (-13 | 48) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on CBSSN - NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM (ANNAPOLIS, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULANE 43.0 26 51-296 [5.8] 15-10-185 [12.3] 11.2 14.0 10 22-77 [3.5] 27-15-148 [5.5] 16.1 +1 +29.0 NAVY 42.0 23 68-416 [6.1] 10-3-110 [11.0] 12.5 19.0 16 24-40 [1.7] 33-21-286 [8.7] 17.2 0 +23.0

GAME TRENDS• TULANE is 8-3 UNDER(L3Y) - AS double digit underdog

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 NAVY (21) at TULANE (14) +7 42.0 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER 2015-10-24 TULANE (14) at NAVY (31) -25 57.0 TULANE ROAD DOG UNDER 2005-11-05 TULANE (21) at NAVY (49) -11.5 52.5 NAVY HOME FAV OVER 2004-11-06 NAVY (10) at TULANE (42) +8.5 54.0 TULANE HOME DOG UNDER 2003-11-01 TULANE (17) at NAVY (35) -10 63.5 NAVY HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TULANE 48 36 17.7 19 NAVY -14 44 -12 31.4 31.5

HOME teams are on a 4-1-1 ATS run in TUL-NAVY series

(349) W KENTUCKY (-7.5 | 57.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (350) ILLINOIS [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 8:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W KENTUCKY 31.0 20 40-100 [2.5] 31-20-264 [8.5] 11.7 17.0 22 22-25 [1.1] 48-29-320 [6.7] 20.3 -1 +14.0 ILLINOIS 24.0 14 30-71 [2.4] 19-10-145 [7.6] 9.0 21.0 21 51-171 [3.4] 34-21-204 [6.0] 17.9 +1 +3.0

GAME TRENDS• W KENTUCKY is 11-1-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards

per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-09-06 W KENTUCKY (34) at ILLINOIS (42) -3.5 69.5 ILLINOIS HOME FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge W KENTUCKY -8.5 41.5 30.6 35.6 OVER ILLINOIS 57.5 33 5.5 27.1 ILL 28.9

(351) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (352) BAYLOR (-17 | 57.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 8:00 PM - MCLANE STADIUM (WACO, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTSA 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 BAYLOR 45.0 22 34-254 [7.5] 30-14-278 [9.3] 11.8 48.0 31 43-138 [3.2] 60-44-447 [7.5] 12.2 -2 -3.0

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - VS Non-ranked team





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STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 58.5 32.5 19.4 19.6 BAYLOR -17 46 -17.8 37 39.1

(353) HAWAII [SU:2-0 | ATS:2-0] AT (354) UCLA (-23.5 | 62) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 5:00 PM on PAC12 - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HAWAII 39.5 20 42-205 [4.9] 31-18-272 [8.8] 12.1 26.5 25 44-163 [3.7] 37-22-284 [7.6] 16.9 +2 +13.0 UCLA 45.0 29 25-63 [2.5] 59-35-491 [8.3] 12.3 44.0 23 63-382 [6.1] 30-9-89 [3.0] 10.7 -3 +1.0

GAME TRENDS• UCLA is 8-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge HAWAII 63 33.5 20.2 20.4 UCLA -23.5 51.5 -22 40.4 43.7

(355) C MICHIGAN [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (356) KANSAS (-5.5 | 55.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 4:00 PM - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LAWRENCE, KS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF C MICHIGAN 30.0 24 50-246 [4.9] 54-28-253 [4.7] 16.6 27.0 15 31-108 [3.5] 40-21-284 [7.1] 14.5 +2 +3.0 KANSAS 38.0 17 25-73 [2.9] 37-23-364 [9.8] 11.5 16.0 13 33-94 [2.8] 44-25-170 [3.9] 16.5 -2 +22.0

GAME TRENDS• C MICHIGAN is 11-4-1 OVER(S2000) on ROAD - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less

than 5.9 yards per attempt(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-09-20 C MICHIGAN (10) at KANSAS (24) -5 44.5 KANSAS HOME FAV UNDER 2007-09-01 C MICHIGAN (7) at KANSAS (52) -7.5 51.5 KANSAS HOME FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge C MICHIGAN 56 30 25.8 29.1 CMU KANSAS -5.5 31.5 -3.8 30.6 29.3

(357) NEBRASKA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (358) OREGON (-14 | 69.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 4:30 PM on FOX - AUTZEN STADIUM (EUGENE, OR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEBRASKA 43.0 25 38-225 [5.9] 32-19-238 [7.4] 10.8 36.0 32 21-82 [3.9] 68-46-415 [6.1] 13.8 +2 +7.0 OREGON 77.0 37 52-348 [6.7] 27-23-355 [13.1] 9.1 21.0 25 38-99 [2.6] 48-25-266 [5.5] 17.4 0 +56.0

These two played a 35-32 thriller with Nebraska winning last season and Oregon could have won except for too many fruitless two-point tries. The Cornhuskers have serious defensive concerns heading to Eugene after permitting over 500 yards to Arkansas State. The lone upside for the Huskers is history, in which they are 14-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in last game. At least the Ducks played like how they used to smashing Southern Utah 77-21, but we find out what kind of progress new coach Willie Taggert has made this week. Essentially, we have two flawed clubs used to winning and the winner get a temporary boost before conference play begins. Oregon is 27-12 ATS after having 200+ yards rushing advantage.






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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPSGAME TRENDS• OREGON is 20-7-1 ATS(S2000) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 31.5 PPG(CS)• NEBRASKA is 3-8-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards per

attempt(CS)• OREGON is 10-2 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - All Games

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 OREGON (32) at NEBRASKA (35) -3 72.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NEBRASKA 73.5 46.5 25 UNDER 27.4 UNDER OREGON -13.5 54.5 -12.3 37.9 40.4

(359) MIAMI FL (-14.5 | 55.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (360) ARKANSAS ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPNU - CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUM (JONESBORO, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI FL (16) 41.0 28 34-317 [9.3] 31-18-233 [7.5] 13.4 13.0 20 30-121 [4.0] 39-25-229 [5.9] 26.9 +2 +28.0 ARKANSAS ST 36.0 32 21-82 [3.9] 68-46-415 [6.1] 13.8 43.0 25 38-225 [5.9] 32-19-238 [7.4] 10.8 -2 -7.0

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against good teams with 70%+ winning pct(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-09-13 ARKANSAS ST (20) at MIAMI FL (41) -14 52.0 MIAMI FL HOME FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MIAMI FL (16) -14.5 53 35.1 33.3 ARKANSAS ST 55.5 37 12 19.6 20.4

(361) SAN JOSE ST [SU:1-1 | ATS:2-0] AT (362) TEXAS (-26 | 63) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on LHN - ROYAL TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AUSTIN, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN JOSE ST 28.0 20 45-190 [4.2] 38-20-244 [6.4] 15.5 27.5 21 67-255 [3.8] 18-8-135 [7.5] 14.2 -2 +0.5 TEXAS 41.0 26 31-98 [3.2] 53-34-375 [7.1] 11.5 51.0 18 43-263 [6.1] 15-12-219 [14.6] 9.5 -1 -10.0

From sheer joy to off the tracks for Texas in three and half hours. Coach Tom Herman’s honeymoon period is already over and the Longhorns better blowout San Jose State by far more than the oddsmakers spread or the heat really rises. Herman is not going to change the culture of what appears to be privileged Horns players immediately, having to create hunger for success. Texas is only 11-11 ATS as 20+ point chalk since 2009. The Spartans are on the road for the first time after 2-0 ATS start and will look to test the Longhorns defensive front with their running game and up-tempo style. San Jose State already have five turnovers and that could bury them in Austin.

GAME TRENDS• SAN JOSE ST is 17-8 ATS(L25G) - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)• TEXAS is 6-10 ATS(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team• TEXAS is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge SAN JOSE ST 63 32 SJSU 21 17.1 TEXAS -27.5 50 -21.5 44.8 43.3



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(363) TCU (-3 | 58) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (364) ARKANSAS [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 3:30 PM on CBS - RAZORBACK STADIUM (FAYETTEVILLE, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TCU (23) 63.0 24 36-242 [6.7] 30-23-300 [10.0] 8.6 0.0 7 42-24 [0.6] 14-7-41 [2.9] 0.0 +1 +63.0 ARKANSAS 49.0 26 45-236 [5.2] 22-16-179 [8.1] 8.5 7.0 9 31-80 [2.6] 29-14-95 [3.3] 25.0 0 +42.0

Not much to be learned from either team’s opening game blowouts. In this showdown of former Southwest Conference pals, TCU is striving for more offensive balance and if the offensive line does the job, that makes QB Kenny Hill much more effective. The Horned Frogs are in the process of upgrading defensive line with more bulk when facing massive O-Line’s like Arkansas. Important year for Bret Bielema in Arkansas and possibly he can make more noise and needs this game. The offense is in the capable hands of QB Austin Allen and should have a lot of versatility. The defense changing from 4-3 to 3-4 will require adjustments, but little time afforded with this contest and the SEC ahead. Big game for both teams.

GAME TRENDS• TCU is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS)• ARKANSAS is 4-9 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per

play(CS)• ARKANSAS is 9-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards

per attempt(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 ARKANSAS (41) at TCU (38) -10 57.0 ARKANSAS ROAD DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TCU (23) -3 52 30.4 30.7 ARKANSAS 58 47 2 26.4 28.5

(365) LA LAFAYETTE [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (366) TULSA (-14 | 64) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 4:00 PM on ESPN3 - CHAPMAN STADIUM (TULSA, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA LAFAYETTE 51.0 15 36-201 [5.6] 23-12-162 [7.0] 7.1 48.0 24 54-343 [6.4] 25-15-171 [6.8] 10.7 +2 +3.0 TULSA 24.0 26 60-244 [4.1] 38-20-188 [4.9] 18.0 59.0 25 37-332 [9.0] 26-21-308 [11.8] 10.8 0 -35.0

GAME TRENDS• TULSA is 18-5-1 OVER(L25G) at HOME - All Games


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge LA LAFAYETTE 64 28 24.8 24.1 TULSA -16 38.5 -13.5 37 37.7

(367) MARSHALL [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (368) NC STATE (-24.5 | 55.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 6:00 PM on ACCN - CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM (RALEIGH, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARSHALL 31.0 15 25-59 [2.4] 30-20-208 [6.9] 8.6 26.0 25 42-131 [3.1] 44-23-298 [6.8] 16.5 0 +5.0 NC STATE 28.0 29 35-89 [2.5] 64-45-415 [6.5] 18.0 35.0 12 21-31 [1.5] 29-17-215 [7.4] 7.0 -1 -7.0

GAME TRENDS• MARSHALL is 11-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29 PPG(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MARSHALL 55.5 32 17.5 16 NC STATE -24 50 -22 38.8 37.1






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(369) TOLEDO (-9.5 | 70.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (370) NEVADA [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - MACKAY STADIUM (RENO, NV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TOLEDO 47.0 25 41-239 [5.8] 34-19-314 [9.2] 11.8 13.0 7 40-128 [3.2] 14-3-47 [3.4] 13.5 -1 +34.0 NEVADA 20.0 19 26-142 [5.5] 37-16-199 [5.4] 17.1 31.0 27 50-156 [3.1] 38-28-352 [9.3] 16.4 0 -11.0

GAME TRENDS• NEVADA is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge TOLEDO -9.5 41 38.3 39.6 OVER NEVADA 64.5 30 7.8 27.2 30.7

(371) LA MONROE [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (372) FLORIDA ST (-32.5 | 54.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ACC - DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM (TALLAHASSE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA MONROE 29.0 25 49-146 [3.0] 37-21-279 [7.5] 14.7 37.0 16 39-319 [8.2] 25-10-97 [3.9] 11.2 -2 -8.0 FLORIDA ST (10) 7.0 15 27-40 [1.5] 33-19-210 [6.4] 35.7 24.0 13 42-173 [4.1] 18-10-96 [5.3] 11.2 -3 -17.0

GAME TRENDS• LA MONROE is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) - All Games

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2011-09-03 LA MONROE (0) at FLORIDA ST (34) -30 54.0 FLORIDA ST HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge LA MONROE 54.5 25 11.8 10.3 FLORIDA ST (10) -32.5 60.5 -34.3 43.6 46.3

(373) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (374) MISSOURI (-2.5 | 72) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - FAUROT FIELD (COLUMBIA, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH CAROLINA 35.0 12 21-31 [1.5] 29-17-215 [7.4] 7.0 28.0 29 35-89 [2.5] 64-45-415 [6.5] 18.0 +1 +7.0 MISSOURI 72.0 35 41-294 [7.2] 34-21-521 [15.3] 11.3 43.0 21 39-139 [3.6] 35-24-353 [10.1] 11.4 0 +29.0

GAME TRENDS• MISSOURI is 14-3 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - VS Non-ranked team

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 MISSOURI (21) at SOUTH CAROLINA (31) -4 57.0 SOUTH CAROLINA HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-03 SOUTH CAROLINA (10) at MISSOURI (24) -2.5 42.5 MISSOURI HOME FAV UNDER 2014-09-27 MISSOURI (21) at SOUTH CAROLINA (20) -6.5 61.0 MISSOURI ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-10-26 SOUTH CAROLINA (27) at MISSOURI (24) -3 53.5 SOUTH CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-09-22 MISSOURI (10) at SOUTH CAROLINA (31) -10 47.5 SOUTH CAROLINA HOME FAV UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge SOUTH CAROLINA 74.5 46 32 UNDER 32.4 UNDER MISSOURI -2.5 45 -2.5 37.3 34.3

The L5 SC-MIZ h2h games went UNDER the total





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(375) NORTH TEXAS [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (376) SMU (-13.5 | 64.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - GERALD J. FORD STADIUM (DALLAS, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTH TEXAS 59.0 31 60-436 [7.3] 24-17-232 [9.7] 11.3 14.0 15 33-86 [2.6] 41-20-180 [4.4] 19.0 +1 +45.0 SMU 58.0 25 48-243 [5.1] 23-12-222 [9.7] 8.0 14.0 15 35-75 [2.1] 31-16-144 [4.6] 15.6 +2 +44.0

GAME TRENDS• SMU is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25 yards per point(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-03 SMU (34) at NORTH TEXAS (21) +7 68.0 SMU ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-09-12 NORTH TEXAS (13) at SMU (31) -6 59.5 SMU HOME FAV UNDER 2014-09-06 SMU (6) at NORTH TEXAS (43) -3 44.5 NORTH TEXAS HOME FAV OVER 2007-09-08 NORTH TEXAS (31) at SMU (45) -17.5 46.0 NORTH TEXAS ROAD DOG OVER 2006-09-09 SMU (6) at NORTH TEXAS (24) +5 40.0 NORTH TEXAS HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge NORTH TEXAS 64.5 27 23.6 25.7 SMU -13.5 38 -14.3 36.8 40.4

(377) AUBURN [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (378) CLEMSON (-4.5 | 54) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AUBURN (13) 41.0 25 53-351 [6.6] 26-15-184 [7.1] 13.0 7.0 8 47-70 [1.5] 9-4-8 [0.9] 11.1 -2 +34.0 CLEMSON (3) 56.0 34 43-353 [8.2] 35-25-312 [8.9] 11.9 3.0 5 44-119 [2.7] 5-1-1 [0.2] 40.0 -1 +53.0

In an evening loaded with great games, this matchup might be the most telling about future results for both squads. Kelly Bryant was ready for first game as new Clemson signal caller, but Kent State is not Auburn. Bryant will have to show poise when under duress and stick with the game plan as the Auburn defense is built to be disruptive and they just held Georgia Southern to 78 total yards. Clemson is only 2-7 ATS in Death Valley versus Top 25 foes since 2007. QB Jarrett Stidham had as good debut for Auburn and now arguably will face the best defense he will see before Alabama. The Tigers from Alabama are 13-4 ATS after rushing for 350+ yards and can engineer upset.

GAME TRENDS• CLEMSON is 8-2-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)• AUBURN is 3-9-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per

carry(CS)• AUBURN is 8-2 UNDER(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22 PPG(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-03 CLEMSON (19) at AUBURN (13) +9 62.5 AUBURN HOME DOG UNDER 2012-09-01 * AUBURN (19) vs CLEMSON (26) -2 54.5 CLEMSON xxxx FAV UNDER 2011-09-17 AUBURN (24) at CLEMSON (38) -5 57.5 CLEMSON HOME FAV OVER 2010-09-18 CLEMSON (24) at AUBURN (27) -8 54.5 CLEMSON ROAD DOG UNDER 2007-12-31 * AUBURN (23) vs CLEMSON (20) -2 44.5 AUBURN xxxx DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge AUBURN (13) 54 58 27.6 AUB 25.5 CLEMSON (3) -5 62 -7.3 27.4 32.4

UNDER the total is 4-1 in L5 of AUB-CLM series





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(379) GEORGIA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (380) NOTRE DAME (-4 | 53) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:30 PM on NBC - NOTRE DAME STADIUM (SOUTH BEND, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA (15) 31.0 18 44-221 [5.0] 20-11-147 [7.3] 11.9 10.0 12 32-136 [4.2] 32-21-148 [4.6] 28.4 -2 +21.0 NOTRE DAME (24) 49.0 26 44-422 [9.6] 30-17-184 [6.1] 12.4 16.0 18 37-85 [2.3] 35-19-245 [7.0] 20.6 0 +33.0

Georgia will be without starting QB Jacob Eason, who suffered knee injury in opener and will go with true freshman Jake Fromm. The Bulldogs would like nothing better than need Fromm like they did the last time they faced Notre Dame, when QB Buck Belue was 1-for-13 for seven yards in Sugar Bowl and they won national championship. Georgia will be handing the ball to impressive tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. We got out first look at new Notre Dame offense without Brian Kelly calling plays and it appears they will probe weaknesses and make opponents stop them. In spite of Fromm playing, it will be too tempting for Dawgs to run the entire game against suspect Irish secondary.

GAME TRENDS• NOTRE DAME is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than

5.7 yards per play(CS)• GEORGIA is 4-20-1 ATS(L25G) - Against poor passing teams averaging less than 6.15 yards per

attempt(CS)• GEORGIA is 16-5 UNDER(S2000) on ROAD - In September


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge GEORGIA (15) 55 53.5 21.5 21.6 NOTRE DAME (24) -4.5 56 -9.5 ND 32.1 ND 32.2 ND

(381) MISSISSIPPI ST (-8.5 | 67.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (382) LOUISIANA TECH [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:30 PM on CBSSN - JOE AILLET STADIUM (RUSTON, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSISSIPPI ST 49.0 29 50-281 [5.6] 36-20-274 [7.6] 11.3 0.0 2 39-18 [0.5] 8-3-15 [1.9] 0.0 0 +49.0 LOUISIANA TECH 52.0 22 37-221 [6.0] 35-18-276 [7.9] 9.6 24.0 22 33-133 [4.0] 40-20-256 [6.4] 16.2 0 +28.0

GAME TRENDS• LOUISIANA TECH is 11-1 OVER(L2Y) - OU line of 60 or more

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2015-10-17 LOUISIANA TECH (20) at MISSISSIPPI ST (45) -10.5 60.0 MISSISSIPPI ST HOME FAV OVER 2011-09-24 LOUISIANA TECH (20) at MISSISSIPPI ST (26) -20 58.0 LOUISIANA TECH ROAD DOG UNDER 2008-08-30 MISSISSIPPI ST (14) at LOUISIANA TECH (22) +7 44.5 LOUISIANA TECH HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MISSISSIPPI ST -7 50 35.5 37.8 LOUISIANA TECH 67.5 37 9.3 28.8 29.1

(383) OKLAHOMA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (384) OHIO ST (-7.5 | 64.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:30 PM on ABC - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA (5) 56.0 35 38-180 [4.7] 36-32-496 [13.8] 12.1 7.0 11 21-73 [3.5] 27-16-94 [3.5] 23.9 +1 +49.0 OHIO ST (2) 49.0 26 51-292 [5.7] 35-20-304 [8.7] 12.2 21.0 25 27-17 [0.6] 68-42-420 [6.2] 20.8 +3 +28.0

Quarterback Baker Mayfield may have new receivers but it did not matter against UTEP, as he was 19-for-20 against for 329 yards. This sets up as titanic confrontation, with Oklahoma offensive line blocking Ohio State’s defensive front and the Sooners coaches will look to understand where Indiana had so much success well into third quarter against Buckeyes defense. Ohio State will want to get J.T. Barrett into early comfort zone as he struggled at time versus the Hoosiers and no matter what anyone says, when the Buckeyes run, Barrett plays better. The Sooners are 26-18 ATS out of conference since 2007, while the Buckeyes are 10-4-1 ATS in September of late. Oklahoma looking for payback after 45-25 spanking last year in Norman.





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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPSGAME TRENDS• OKLAHOMA is 11-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• OHIO ST is 2-8-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards per

attempt(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 12-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than

5.7 yards per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 OHIO ST (45) at OKLAHOMA (24) +1.5 58.5 OHIO ST ROAD FAV OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge OKLAHOMA (5) 64.5 63 26.3 28.4 OHIO ST (2) -7.5 66 -7.3 34.7 35

(387) STANFORD [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (388) USC (-6.5 | 56) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 8:30 PM on FOX - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF STANFORD (14) 62.0 27 36-287 [8.0] 37-21-369 [10.0] 10.6 7.0 14 38-146 [3.8] 24-10-95 [4.0] 34.4 +2 +55.0 USC (6) 49.0 25 34-232 [6.8] 33-23-289 [8.8] 10.6 31.0 24 48-263 [5.5] 23-12-94 [4.1] 11.5 -1 +18.0

In what could be the first of two matchups between these teams, this will be one of the premier collisions of the Pac-12 campaign. Stanford routed Rice, but USC needed all four quarters to put a away a pesky Western Michigan bunch, as the Trojans were gouged for 263 yards on the ground. If USC permits anywhere close to that many yards rushing again in this contest, they will get beat. The Cardinal are expected to push Washington in the Pac-12 North and might have the horses to do so, with improvement on both sides of the line of scrimmage. What to watch for, the team with the most rushing yards has won 10 of last 11 confrontations.

GAME TRENDS• STANFORD is 19-6 ATS(L25G) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35 yards per

point(CS)• USC is 3-9 ATS(L3Y) - VS AP top 25• USC is 13-3-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 USC (10) at STANFORD (27) -7 50.5 STANFORD HOME FAV UNDER 2015-12-05 * STANFORD (41) vs USC (22) +4.5 58.0 STANFORD xxxx FAV OVER 2015-09-19 STANFORD (41) at USC (31) -10 50.5 STANFORD ROAD DOG OVER 2014-09-06 USC (13) at STANFORD (10) -3 52.5 USC ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-11-16 STANFORD (17) at USC (20) +4 44.5 USC HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge STANFORD (14) 56 58 27.3 STAN 23.9 USC (6) -7 61 -6.3 29.7 30.1

STANFORD is 6-2-1 ATS on the road vs. USC since ‘01

(389) UNLV [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (390) IDAHO (-6.5 | 70.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - COWAN SPECTRUM AT KIBBIE DOME (MOSCOW, ID)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UNLV 40.0 25 46-344 [7.5] 21-11-220 [10.5] 14.1 43.0 21 61-309 [5.1] 26-15-140 [5.4] 10.4 -2 -3.0 IDAHO 28.0 15 44-193 [4.4] 19-14-163 [8.6] 12.7 6.0 8 35-95 [2.7] 25-10-95 [3.8] 31.7 -3 +22.0

GAME TRENDS• UNLV is 3-9 ATS(S2000) on ROAD - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than

15 points per game(CS)




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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPSRECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-24 IDAHO (33) at UNLV (30) -14 61.5 IDAHO ROAD DOG OVER 2010-09-18 UNLV (7) at IDAHO (30) -7 59.0 IDAHO HOME FAV UNDER 2005-09-10 IDAHO (31) at UNLV (34) -13 52.0 IDAHO ROAD DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge UNLV 73 25.5 33.5 UNLV 31.3 UNDER IDAHO -6.5 26.5 -4.3 31.6 UNDER 35.2

(391) MINNESOTA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (392) OREGON ST (-2.5 | 52) [SU:1-1 | ATS:0-2]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 10:00 PM on FS1 - RESER STADIUM (CORVALLIS, OR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 17.0 21 51-169 [3.3] 32-19-239 [7.5] 24.0 7.0 13 22-51 [2.3] 42-22-211 [5.0] 37.4 0 +10.0 OREGON ST 31.0 20 30-153 [5.0] 36-22-269 [7.5] 13.6 45.0 29 48-241 [5.0] 33-21-279 [8.3] 11.6 -2 -14.0

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 9-2-1 ATS(L3Y) - As underdog

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-01 OREGON ST (23) at MINNESOTA (30) -13 56.0 OREGON ST ROAD DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge MINNESOTA 52 43 22.7 26.7 OREGON ST -2.5 39 0.3 27 26

(393) SAN DIEGO ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (394) ARIZONA ST (-3 | 55) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 11:00 PM on PAC12 - SUN DEVIL STADIUM (TEMPE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN DIEGO ST 38.0 27 52-276 [5.3] 23-17-237 [10.3] 13.5 17.0 16 27-57 [2.1] 24-19-258 [10.8] 18.5 +1 +21.0 ARIZONA ST 37.0 19 40-79 [2.0] 30-24-321 [10.7] 10.8 31.0 27 30-151 [5.0] 58-40-398 [6.9] 17.7 +2 +6.0

Since neither team will be an actor on national stage, this is about conference pride. San Diego State is still the favorite to win the MWC West and does return RB Rashaad Penny, but has a brand new offensive line and the defense will be tested by Arizona State QB Manny Wilkins, who is a true dual threat. The Aztecs will be forced to want to throw the pigskin, since the Sun Devils had the worst pass defense in the country and just give up 395 yards to New Mexico State. ASU might have won first game, but pass defense is still a disaster and unless they can mount pass rush, the Devils fall to 1-9 ATS in Tempe after scoring and allowing 31+ digits.

GAME TRENDS• ARIZONA ST is 9-3 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 6.0

yards per play(CS)• SAN DIEGO ST is 3-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - In September• ARIZONA ST is 21-6 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2007-09-15 SAN DIEGO ST (13) at ARIZONA ST (34) -28.5 60.0 SAN DIEGO ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2002-09-14 ARIZONA ST (39) at SAN DIEGO ST (28) +5 52.0 ARIZONA ST ROAD FAV OVER 2001-09-08 SAN DIEGO ST (7) at ARIZONA ST (38) -7 47.5 ARIZONA ST HOME FAV UNDER 2000-08-31 ARIZONA ST (10) at SAN DIEGO ST (7) +4 48.0 SAN DIEGO ST HOME DOG UNDER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge SAN DIEGO ST 58 42 23.3 24.4 ARIZONA ST -4.5 44 -6 34.2 ASU 33.2



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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(395) UTAH (-1.5 | 47) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (396) BYU [SU:1-1 | ATS:0-2]

SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUM (PROVO, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH 37.0 27 47-272 [5.8] 32-23-227 [7.1] 13.5 16.0 12 28-51 [1.8] 31-14-187 [6.0] 14.9 0 +21.0 BYU 10.0 9 24-83 [3.4] 25-14-148 [5.8] 23.1 16.5 20 46-190 [4.1] 27-15-159 [5.9] 21.2 0 -6.5

BYU was severely outclassed by LSU in 27-0 whitewashing, gaining a mere 97 yards on offense and never crossing midfield, while being thrashed for 497 yards. The Tanner Mangum of two years ago has disappeared and unless he returns, the Cougars offense will misfire frequently. Utah arrives in Provo with an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark against BYU and low scoring has prevailed with the UNDER 8-2-1. The Utes have Top 30 talent and never have a problem getting up for the Holy War, which we are thrilled is back on again. Plain and simple, Utah has better athletes and BYU lacks perimeter players that can shake loose which does not help Mangum. Should be another entertaining close skirmish.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 10-3 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5• BYU is 4-14 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.0 yards

per(CS)• UTAH is 13-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 BYU (19) at UTAH (20) -3 42.5 BYU ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-12-19 * UTAH (35) vs BYU (28) +2.5 53.5 UTAH xxxx FAV OVER 2013-09-21 UTAH (20) at BYU (13) -7 60.5 UTAH ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-09-15 BYU (21) at UTAH (24) +3.5 45.0 UTAH HOME DOG xxxx 2011-09-17 UTAH (54) at BYU (10) -4 45.0 UTAH ROAD DOG OVER

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge UTAH 47.5 46.5 23.1 25.7 BYU -1 44 -0.5 22.7 24.8

UNDERDOGS are on a 6-1 ATS run in UTAH-BYU series

(397) HOUSTON (-1 | 62.5) [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (398) ARIZONA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 10:30 PM on ESPNU - ARIZONA STADIUM (TUCSON, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 ARIZONA 62.0 23 47-506 [10.8] 14-7-89 [6.4] 9.6 24.0 29 42-185 [4.4] 50-27-377 [7.5] 23.4 +3 +38.0

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 12-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25 yards per

point(CS)


STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge HOUSTON -2 47 31.9 31 ARIZONA 65.5 44 -0.3 31.3 32.8

(399) BOISE ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-0-1] AT (400) WASHINGTON ST (-10.5 | 58.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 10:30 PM on ESPN - MARTIN STADIUM (PULLMAN, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOISE ST 24.0 19 44-147 [3.3] 32-19-210 [6.6] 14.9 13.0 11 29-76 [2.6] 34-17-139 [4.1] 16.5 +1 +11.0 WASHINGTON ST (20) 31.0 27 25-150 [6.0] 48-40-361 [7.5] 16.5 0.0 7 32-115 [3.6] 12-5-28 [2.3] 0.0 0 +31.0





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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPSBoise State held off Troy with defense and special teams and might require same methods to leave Pullman with a victory. QB Brett Rypien is surrounded by many new faces and the Broncos were far from cohesive at home in scoring just two offensive touchdowns. Having hung on to beat Washington State last season on the blue turf 31-28 as 13-point favorites, Boise State will be an away underdog for the first time in four years. The Cougars were just glad not to lose season opener, something they had done for five straight years. Backed with QB Luke Falk and an improving defense that pitched shutout over Montana State (last shutout was 1999), Washington State continues to improve in Mike Leach’s sixth season.

GAME TRENDS• BOISE ST is 20-7-1 ATS(S2000) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards

per attempt(CS)• WASHINGTON ST is 10-15 ATS(L25G) - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.4 yards

per carry(CS)• WASHINGTON ST is 6-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-10 WASHINGTON ST (28) at BOISE ST (31) -13 73.0 WASHINGTON ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2001-09-08 WASHINGTON ST (41) at BOISE ST (20) +6 NL WASHINGTON ST ROAD FAV 2000-10-07 BOISE ST (35) at WASHINGTON ST (42) +2.5 NL WASHINGTON ST HOME DOG

STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge Proj Edge Proj Edge BOISE ST 58.5 45 25.1 25.6 WASHINGTON ST (20) -10.5 52 -9.5 36 32.9

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If you read most preseason publications, visit team websites, or simply watch the analysts on TV games, for the most part you will find more optimism than pessimism at this time of year. For one, the break of a new season naturally brings fresh hope for ALL team, and for two, quite frankly, in this politically correct world we live in, folks are afraid to make negative commentary. Unfortunately, the mathematical reality is that for every team that improves in 2017, one will decline. In this piece, I am going to look at teams that are trending downward in 2017 and forecast what the future might hold for them based upon past similar instances.

To complete this study, I grabbed all of the season logs for teams over the last six years that had trended downward in three straight seasons to the point where at least the final season was a losing season. That means, the team had to have a worse record than it did the prior year in three straight seasons. You can see from the chart alongside that I have grouped all of these teams into three distinct categories. These were some of my key findings:

1. Teams that had a new coach for that upcoming seasonThere were 15 teams over the last six seasons that I found fit into this group. Their combined record for the upcoming season (or the 4th season sequentially) was 53-131 SU (28.8%) & 82-98 ATS (45.6%). If you take out the 10-3 ATS mark of Ole Miss in 2012 under Hugh Freeze, the ATS mark drops to 72-95, which accounts for just 43.1% ATS. Obviously this is not a group of teams you’ll want to follow religiously throughout the season. I will introduce those teams in a bit.

2. Teams that had the same coach for that seasonThere were 23 teams that I found fit into this group. This means that their coach made it through the fourth season and possibly even began a trend back upward. In many cases, these were teams that had coaches in the infancy of their term, and their mark was

only starting to be put on the program. The combined record for this group was 126-161 SU (43.9%) & 159-126 ATS (55.8%). The worst ATS record of any team in this bunch was 4-8, so clearly identifying the teams that will fit this bill in 2017 is a worthwhile strategy. Again, I will attempt to do this a little later.

3. Teams that had the same coach for that season but he was replaced afterwardThere were 16 teams in the study that wound up replacing their coach after the subsequent season following the three year downward trend. This group of teams was horrific, both on the scoreboard and at the betting window. The combined records were 41-153 SU (21.1%) & 75-113 ATS (39.9%). The only two of the 16 teams that posted a winning ATS mark were 2015 Syracuse (8-4 ATS) and 2016 Fresno State (7-4 ATS). Naturally this group might be the hardest to pick out because you are making difficult assumptions of a coach being fired after this upcoming season, but again, I will try to do so shortly.

FITTING THE 2017 DOWNWARD TRENDING TEAMS INTO OUR THREE CATEGORIESAs promised, I broke the 2017 downward trending teams into the three categories. You can feel free to decipher the latter two categories yourself should you disagree with my logic. In any case, the first category is easy…

New coach for 2017These are the schools that have trended downward in at least the last three years and have replaced their head coach for 2017. Recall however that this is not a great group of teams to back in terms of covering point spreads.

• CINCINNATI• OREGON• RUTGERS• TEXAS STATE

Same coach for 2017 AND should be around for 2018This is the group of teams that I fit into our middle category, those whose coaches I expect to be around for 2018. This would be the group that I expect to do very well against the number based upon recent history.

ILLINOIS – Lovie Smith begins just his second season in Champaign and I would expect with his rich coaching resume he will be given plenty of time to turn things around.

MISSOURI- Like Smith at Illinois, Barry Odom is also starting his second season at Missouri. He welcomes back QB Drew Lock and nine other offensive starters as well, giving all the more reason to think that the Tigers could rebound in 2017.

VIRGINIA – After his run of success at BYU, Bronco Mendenhall might be the coach with the longest leash coming off a 2-10 season at Virginia. He has returning senior QB Kurt

ANALYZING 2017 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS ON A 3-YEAR DOWNWARD TREND


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Benkert in place to help lead the Cavaliers back to respectability.

TCU – Gary Patterson’s 2016 TCU team is only considered a “losing” team because they lost their bowl game last December to fall to 6-7. Prior to that, the Horned Frogs had posted 11 wins in 2015 and 12 in 2014. Only by default do they seem to fit our system so I wouldn’t be shy at all about backing TCU this fall.

UCLA – With one of the best quarterbacks in the country leading the way, I don’t think Jim Mora’s UCLA team will continue trending downward. Six of their eight losses last year were by 10 points or less, making the Bruins a top candidate for a bounce back team in 2017.

Same coach for 2017 BUT a candidate to potentially be replaced afterwardARIZONA – The Wildcats have gone from 10 to 7 to 3 wins over the last three seasons, and clearly Rich Rodriguez in on the hot seat. Last year Arizona allowed 38.3 PPG in the Pac 12. That is approaching bottom-out level.

ARIZONA ST – It would seem that the coaching seats are getting hot all over the desert, as Todd Graham can’t be too comfortable in Tempe either. His defense allowed a tick under 40 PPG as well in 2016 and another season like that will prove disastrous for him.

DUKE – This was a tough one for me to group, as David Cutcliffe has taken Duke to heights not seen prior. However, off a 4-8 season, the Blue Devils are trending downward, and it doesn’t figure to get much easier in a loaded ACC this fall.

N ILLINOIS – Not too many years ago, Northern Illinois was a BCS-party crasher. Now having won fewer games than the prior season in four straight years, Rod Carey desperately needs a turnaround. With several difficult road games on the slate and a new quarterback to work in, I’m not confident that will happen.

RICE – David Bailiff has been at Rice 11 years now. Having sunk to 3-9 last year and then getting tagged 62-7 in the opener by Stanford, I don’t foresee year #12 coming.

UTAH ST – Matt Wells begins his 5th season at Utah State and has only 10 starters back from his 3-9 team of 2016. That record matched the schools worst in football since 2008. The 2017 schedule is very difficult by Aggies’ standards, and the talent just isn’t there to bring this team back quickly in the Mountain West.

UTEP – Sean Kugler’s UTEP team squares off with Rice on Saturday, and a win will do wonders for either program, perhaps even transferring the winner onto the list of teams that will be under the same coach leadership in 2018. That might be a stretch, but whoever wins will at least generate some positive energy for at least one week.

SU ATS Off Def PPGTeam Season W-L W-L PPG PPG Diff

MINNESOTA 2011 3-9 7-5 18.4 31.7 -13.3KANSAS 2012 1-11 4-7 18.3 36.1 -17.8OLE MISS 2012 7-6 10-3 31.5 27.6 3.8UAB 2012 3-9 5-7 28.3 37.5 -9.3COLORADO 2013 4-8 6-6 25.4 38.3 -12.8KENTUCKY 2013 2-10 4-8 20.5 31.2 -10.7SOUTH FLORIDA 2013 2-10 5-7 13.8 28.6 -14.8UTEP 2013 2-10 2-10 21.8 39.3 -17.6WAKE FOREST 2014 3-9 6-6 14.8 26.4 -11.6OREGON ST 2015 2-10 3-9 19.0 37.0 -18.0TULSA 2015 6-7 7-5 37.2 39.8 -2.7BALL ST 2016 4-8 7-5 27.0 30.1 -3.1EAST CAROLINA 2016 3-9 3-9 27.0 36.1 -9.1NORTH TEXAS 2016 5-8 7-5 24.8 32.6 -7.8SOUTH CAROLINA 2016 6-7 6-6 20.8 26.5 -5.7

BUFFALO 2011 3-9 6-6 22.2 29.4 -7.3CALIFORNIA 2011 7-6 7-6 28.3 24.2 4.2OREGON ST 2011 3-9 4-8 21.8 30.8 -9.0SAN JOSE ST 2011 5-7 8-4 24.5 30.3 -5.8WAKE FOREST 2011 6-7 8-5 26.0 27.0 -1.0EAST CAROLINA 2012 8-5 6-7 31.5 31.6 -0.2LA MONROE 2012 8-5 8-5 33.8 29.2 4.7HAWAII 2013 1-11 7-5 27.4 38.8 -11.3UTAH 2013 5-7 6-6 29.2 28.0 1.2CALIFORNIA 2014 5-7 7-5 38.3 39.8 -1.5FLA INTERNATIONL 2014 4-8 7-4 23.0 24.8 -1.8PURDUE 2014 3-9 7-5 23.8 31.7 -7.8TCU 2014 12-1 11-2 46.5 19.0 27.5TEMPLE 2014 6-6 6-6 23.1 17.5 5.6VIRGINIA 2014 5-7 7-5 25.8 24.1 1.8W MICHIGAN 2014 8-5 10-3 33.8 24.9 8.8WEST VIRGINIA 2014 7-6 7-6 33.5 27.6 5.8CONNECTICUT 2015 6-7 5-8 17.2 19.5 -2.3SAN JOSE ST 2015 6-7 8-5 27.9 27.2 0.7TEXAS 2015 5-7 5-6 26.4 30.3 -3.9BUFFALO 2016 2-10 4-8 16.5 32.3 -15.8RICE 2016 3-9 6-6 25.3 37.3 -12.1WYOMING 2016 8-6 9-5 35.9 34.1 1.9

AKRON 2011 1-11 3-8 14.2 38.5 -24.3FLA ATLANTIC 2011 1-11 3-9 12.9 34.7 -21.8KANSAS 2011 2-10 6-6 22.3 43.8 -21.4MEMPHIS 2011 2-10 5-7 16.3 35.1 -18.8BOSTON COLLEGE 2012 2-10 4-8 19.8 29.7 -9.8IDAHO 2012 1-11 3-9 15.8 42.4 -26.6KENTUCKY 2012 2-10 3-9 17.9 31.0 -13.1TENNESSEE 2012 5-7 4-8 36.2 35.7 0.5TEXAS TECH 2012 8-5 6-7 37.5 31.8 5.7ARMY 2013 3-9 4-8 24.4 31.6 -7.2SMU 2014 1-11 4-8 11.1 41.3 -30.3IOWA ST 2015 3-9 5-5 25.0 32.7 -7.7LA MONROE 2015 2-11 5-7 21.0 36.5 -15.5SYRACUSE 2015 4-8 8-4 27.3 31.0 -3.8TX-SAN ANTONIO 2015 3-9 5-6 22.6 33.8 -11.2FRESNO ST 2016 1-11 7-4 17.7 30.9 -13.3COMBINED RECORD: 41-153 SU (21.1%), 75-113 ATS (39.9%)

NEW COACH FOR THAT SEASON

SAME COACH FOR THAT SEASON

SAME COACH BUT REPLACED AFTER THAT SEASON

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS ON 3-YEAR DECLINE

COMBINED RECORD: 53-131 SU (28.8%), 82-98 ATS (45.6%)

COMBINED RECORD: 126-161 SU (43.9%), 159-126 ATS (55.8%)

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Here is our new weekly look at what is happening in football and wagering.

TEXAS FANS NOT HAPPY ALREADY AND OTHER WILD BETTING NEWSWe tried to warn people that in spite of Tom Herman being a very good coach, Texas has talented individual players, but is strictly a borderline Top 30ish club. Longhorns fans thought the glory days would arrive immediately, however, Maryland was not at all phased on the road and by the end of the first quarter knew they could win the line of scrimmage and began shoving Texas around.

The Terrapins won in the trenches and amassed 492 yards as +19 road underdogs, including 263 on the ground which included 6.1 yards a carry. Faced with a dramatic deficit, the Horns QB Shane Buechele was forced to throw 52 times and was effective. But with breakdowns everywhere, it is back to the drawing board for Herman and Texas, as the 51 points surrendered were the most given up in a season opener.

We will cover Texas A&M shortly, if Kevin Sumlin is still employed.

Before Saturday, 40 or more point favorites were 253-0 SU, now they have suffered first loss. UNLV paid Howard University $600,000.00 to come to the desert and suffer a beatdown. The Bison (actual nickname of team in Washington, D.C.), led by Cam Newton’s younger brother, upset the Rebels 45-42 as monumental +45 point underdogs. Sports writers at the Las Vegas Sun are calling in it, “The worst loss in UNLV history”.

Also, Baylor’s decline might be taking faster than expected, with 49-45 upset stunner as -33 point home chalk to Liberty College. First-year coach Matt Ruhle might rue the day he took this job.

THE TIDE LEAVE NO DOUBT WHO IS NO.1Alabama went off a as touchdown or -7.5 point favorite over Florida State, depending on the sportsbook and in the second half overwhelmed the Seminoles with defense and special teams. A mixture of skill and luck did the trick on special teams for Alabama and their defense played a flawless second half with perfectly timed and executed blitzes to stifle Florida State offense.

It was a typical recipe we have seen before under coach Nick Saban and as per usual it worked as the Tide covered with ease.

A tip of the hat to the Florida State defense, being given deplorable field position in the second half with the Noles miscues, yet held up

and prevented the game from turning into a rout. Their skill and importance will really matter since quarterback Deondre Francois is finished for the season and if the Seminoles are going to win the ACC, it will be the defense and running game that will have to carry Jimbo Fisher’s club.

WE ALSO NOTICED THISWe should not make too much of all the events of Week 1, largely because it is only one game. The best way to view the outcomes is to check back in early October and review what has happened to teams that either looked really good or suspicious in Week 1

South Carolina could have a real find in quarterback Jake Bentley, who was poised in upset win versus N.C. State. The Wolfpack start like usual, losing games they should win and will win others they will be expected to lose.

Michigan smacked Florida around and it would have been worse except Wolverines’ quarterbacks tossed a pair of Pick 6’s. For those who thought Michigan might have to rebuild with so many new players rather than retool, that question looks to have been answered. For Florida, it is more of the same, a terrible offensive line, a defensive front though fast, is too small to compete with bigger O-Lines and still searching for a quarterback. Betting Florida this season might not be all that comfortable.

Next let’s talk about Texas A&M, UCLA and Tennessee, more specifically the coaches.

Kevin Sumlin’s Aggies were ready to play against UCLA from the starting whistle, Texas A&M had better players, were completely prepared and executed their game plan perfectly in building 44-10 lead.

The Bruins were just the opposite, you would have guessed they got film on the Aggies the night before and never imagined that they would be blocked or Texas A&M was that fast. All eyes in blue and yellow were fixed on Jim Mora, whose team was not mentally prepared.

Thanks to the Aggies losing starting quarterback Nick Starkel, their offensive momentum was undermined and UCLA did not have to fear the pass. With pass protection adjustments, Josh Rosen of the Bruins had more time to throw and the game completely changed as the gassed Texas A&M pass rush was finished. (Ask the Falcons about the Super Bowl how this feels)

In the end, we witnessed a miraculous comeback by UCLA, but it does not take away for the fact that Mora’s team needed unexplainable events to win or that Sumlin had a complete look of panic as the game was slipping away.

Between those coaches and Butch Jones at Tennessee, good luck betting for or against that trio in 2017.

ADDING UP THE NUMBERSThe favorites were 35-5 SU, but only 19-20-1 ATS in FBS contests for Week 1. Lower scores prevailed at 21-19 UNDER. In FBS vs. FCS action, the bigger schools got what they mostly paid for with a 42-4 SU record, however, were miserable 17-29 ATS.

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