Don BesT nFL excLusIve pIckshandicappers.donbest.com/weekly-insider/DBWI-120117.pdf · AFc...

1The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

What a great weekend of football we just had, with the AFC producing expected results as both favorites won, while the NFC saw two upsets, including one of the most exciting games in playoff memory, San Francisco edging New Orleans 36-32. We are now down to the “Final Four” of the NFL playoff proceedings, and this year’s Super Bowl matchup will be decided this week on Championship Sunday.

This week’s entire Don Best Weekly Insider is devoted to handicapping the two conference championship games. From picks, stat matchups, strength ratings, and complete editorial analysis, we have nearly every angle covered. In the AFC, New England opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Baltimore only to be bet upward almost immediately. In the NFC, the 49ers opened at minus-2, and the line moved several times in the first 24 hours only to settle in at 2.5. As usual, our early lines feature will focus on those early moves for both the line and the total, and the impact it might have on the rest of the week and the eventual game results.

The Don Best Weekly Insider experts had an average week during the divisional playoff proceedings, exactly average to be factual as the consensus finished 4-4 on sides and totals for the four games. The highlight win was New England, as all five of our guys liked the Patriots laying the big number. The lowlight was the stunning Green Bay result, as four of our experts sided with the Packers, who looked nothing like the 15-win team they were in the regular season in losing to New York. Hopefully you’ve been following our top two NFL guys, Jim & Bryan, as they continued their successful seasons by each going 5-3 overall and combining for a 5-1 mark on Best Bets.

We received a bunch of great feedback once again on the Divisional Playoff Trends article and hopefully if you read, you were able to come up with some tidbits to help you wrap up a few winners this past weekend. In this issue, we offer the same analysis on the conference championship games. This time around, several of the angles go back even further in time, giving more credibility to some of the trends by virtue of a greater sample size.

We would like to once again thank you for your support of the Don Best Weekly Insider. We hope you agree that it has been a great inaugural season for the publication and we see nothing but greater things ahead. To keep you apprised of the schedule for the Super Bowl, we will be having just one issue covering the big game, and that will be released in the week leading up to the game. That means we will be off next week, preparing material to cover many of the different wagering angles offered every year in the NFL’s biggest game, including line & total, player & team matchup props, and exotics.

Good luck on the Championship Sunday action!

Don BesT nFL excLusIve pIcks ........2

4 FooTBALL LIne Moves BeTToRs MusT knoW .........................3

Early lines NFL and college footballlines, what bettors are thinking andedges as the line moves

RecenT nFL conFeRence chAMpIonshIp pLAyoFF TRenDs .......4

Tips of the trade to help you better handicap divisional playoff weekend

DIvIsIonAL pLAyoFF gAMe Logs .......6Last 19 seasons

AFc chAMpIonshIp MATchup ...........7(301) Baltimore at (302) New England

AFc chAMpIonshIp BeTTIng BReAkDoWn .......................................8

nFc chAMpIonshIp MATchup ...........9(303) NY Giants at (304) San Francisco

nFc chAMpIonshIp BeTTIng BReAkDoWn ..................................... 10

The Don BestWeeklyInsider

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key ATS - AGAINST THE SPREADC - CENTRAL TIMECS - CURRENT SEASONDB - DON BESTE - EASTERN TIMEFD - FIRST DOWNSFG - FIELD GOALH2H - HEAD-TO-HEADL# - LAST NUMBER OF GAMES/YEARSP - PACIFIC TIMEPCT - PERCENTAGE

k PDIF - POINT DIFFERENTIALPPG - POINTS PER GAMEPROJ - PROJECTIONROI - RETURN ON INVESTMENTRTG - RATINGSTRG - STRENGTHSU - STRAIGHT UPTD - TOUCHDOWNTOD - TURNOVER DIFFERENTIALYPPT - YARDS PER POINT

301 BALTIMORE 48 50.5P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM CBS

302 NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -7.5

303 NY GIANTS 44 43P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM FOX

304 SAN FRANCISCO -2 -2.5

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPSsunDAy, JAnuARy 22, 2012

The Don Best Weekly Insider

2 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

Don Best nFL exclusive picks

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OVERALL RECORD (LAST WEEK)

102-81-3, 55% (5-3)

85-98-3, 46% (4-4)

100-83-3, 55% (5-3)

95-88-3, 52% (4-4)

96-87-3, 52% (4-4)

99-84-3, 54% (4-4)

BEST BET RECORD (LAST WEEK)

29-25-3, 54% (2-1)

23-33-1, 41% (1-2)

32-24-1, 57% (3-0)

29-27-1, 52% (0-3)

35-20-2, 64% (1-2)

(301) BALTIMORE at (302) NEW ENGLAND -7.5 Baltimore* New England* Baltimore* Baltimore* New England* Baltimore

(301) BALTIMORE at (302) NEW ENGLAND - Total 50.5 OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

(303) NY GIANTS at (304) SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 NY Giants* San Francisco San Francisco* San Francisco* NY Giants* San Francisco

(303) NY GIANTS at (304) SAN FRANCISCO - Total 43 UNDER OVER* OVER OVER OVER OVER

nFL conFeRence chAMpIonshIps * = BEST BET

Don BesT JIM’s TAkeNY Giants at San FranciscoA lot of the reason that San Francisco was able to beat New Orleans last weekend was that the 49ers played more physically and with apparently more hunger than the Saints. I don’t think they will enjoy a similar advantage this week. In fact, if anything, these two teams are equally physical, and the Giants are playing with a much greater passion and purpose than they were the last time these teams met in November. They will also be playing with the same revenge system that I took advantage of with the Texans last week against Baltimore. Throw out all the season long stats and consider just what has happened over the last month. You also have to then consider that Eli Manning is the more polished quarterback at this time. I just don’t see how you can’t ride the Giants as the dog.

Don BesT RoBeRT’s TAkeNY Giants at San FranciscoThe Giants fly west to battle the San Francisco 49ers following the upset of the top seeded Green Bay Packers. The Giants will look to revenge a November loss against San Francisco and have been on a scoring surge as of late as they have averaged more than 30 points in their last four wins. The Giants are also 6-3 over on the road this year. San Francisco has scored well too over the last month and will need to do so again to win here. I expect both teams in the 20’s and San Francisco is 10-0 over when both teams score more than 20 points over the last two seasons. Take the OVER in this NFC championship duel.

Don BesT BRyAn’s TAkeNY Giants at San FranciscoSan Francisco is hosting the NFC Championship game. The Giants are coming off a win at Green Bay highlighted by a very sub-par offensive performance by the top rated Packers. The 49ers beat the Saints at home in high scoring game capped by a classic last minute scoring drive. San Fran brings the NFL’s best defense. We see the 49ers harassing Eli Manning , stopping the Giants’ rushers, and generating enough turnovers to cover this one. A hungry San Francisco team advances to Super Bowl XLVI.

Don BesT JAson’s TAkeBaltimore at New EnglandIn all honesty, I was quite surprised to see the line for this week’s Baltimore-New England game climb above the touchdown mark. Quite frankly, I actually like this matchup more for the Ravens than I did a week ago. They have a history of success against the Patriots and always seem to be motivated by being an underdog. Baltimore also enjoys a huge defensive edge in this contest, much like the Giants did a week ago at Green Bay when they pulled the upset. This line is being driven up way too much by New England’s success against Denver, but that game and this one share nothing in common. I expect Baltimore to be ready to play and threaten if not pull, the upset.

Don BesT pAuL’s TAkeBaltimore at New EnglandWhen you have a quarterback differential this significant, you have to go with the better player. The difference between Tom Brady and Joe Flacco is like Kate Beckinsale and Rosie O’Donnell in a cat suit. The sense you have is New England is on a mission, while Baltimore is trying to survive itself. Coach Bill Belichick will devise ways to contain Ray Rice and make Flacco uncertain. The Patriots will win by 13 points and head to Indianapolis.


We are down to the final trio of contests, unless you love the Pro Bowl. Let’s take a look at what has happened early to the lines for the conference championship games.

(301) BALTIMORE at (302) NEW ENGLANDWhen this matchup was finalized last Sunday afternoon, there were a few totals that popped up at 49 points

and that number was smacked swiftly up to 50 points, which is where the majority of sportsbooks started this AFC title tilt. Since Monday morning, that figure has been pumped up another half-point to readjusted total of 50.5. New England is 12-5 OVER this season and is 6-3 OVER at Gillette Stadium, and if the total was 50 points or higher, the Patriots are 6-4 OVER. Baltimore was 10-7 OVER this campaign; however the previous highest total they played in this year was Dec. 18 at San Diego, a mere 45 points. In fact, if this total holds up, this would be the first time in Ravens history (starting in 1996) they would participate in a contest with a closing total of 50 or higher.

If you can swallow that crazy information, than it makes perfect sense New England’s opening number of -6.5 or -7 has been elevated to -7.5. In the last seven meetings between these AFC combatants, the only time the Patriots lost was two years ago in the

divisional playoffs and they are 4-2-1 ATS in these battles. During the Belichick and Brady era, New England is 4-1 and 3-2 ATS in conference championships; however No.1 seeds in the AFC are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS since 1994. Don Best Insider View – Play New England and Under

(303) N.Y. GIANTS at (304) SAN FRANCISCOThe NFC Championship game having abruptly been switched from cheese-country to wine and cheese-land,

has witnessed a bouncing number on the home team. San Francisco was released as two-point home favorite, lifted to three-points, before settling back at 2.5-points. The confusing aspect for sports bettors is what perspective to take. The 49ers have been a consistently good team all year and are 12-4-1 ATS, with an 8-0-1 spread mark at home. However, New York is smoldering with four straight wins and covers and is 6-1 ATS since December. When the Giants start percolating, they are 17-6 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive spread triumphs. The higher seed is 4-5-1 ATS in the NFC title game since 2002.

The first encounter this season between these teams closed at 43 with San Francisco winning 27-20. This skirmish started higher at 44.5 points, but tumbled quickly to 43 or 42.5, depending where you shop. The Giants land is San Fran 7-0 OVER after three or more consecutive wins, with an average total score of 58.7 points. New York is 6-2 OVER in true road contests (take away the Jets game) this year. You would not think the Niners could win another shootout like last week and will attempt to stuff the Giants running game. They are 40-22 UNDER when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Don Best Insider View – Play the Giants and Over

4 Football Line Moves Bettors Must know

1 & 2

3 & 4


For the past two weeks, we have compiled trends from the wildcard and divisional rounds of the NFL playoffs. Naturally, the conference title games are next on the docket, and the first and foremost thing that is noticeable when analyzing the recent conference championship games is that home field advantage seems to mean more in this round than it had in either of the two previous rounds.

In fact, over the last five seasons, only two visiting teams have emerged victorious and went on to represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl. Those two teams were the New York Giants in 2008 and the Green Bay Packers last season. Both went on to win the Super Bowl as well, so keep that in mind if either of the road teams should win this week.

The other thing that is easily discernible is that this has been an extremely high scoring round of the playoffs, with OVER the total being on a 15-4-1 run. In only one of the last 10 years did both games go UNDER the total on championship Sunday, that having occurred in 2004.

At this point in the handicapping process for Sunday’s games, it only makes sense to start with home team and OVER the total, unless we can dig up something to suggest otherwise. Nonetheless, let’s give it a try. Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems that have developed in recent conference championship game action.

General Conference Championship Playoff ATS TrendsThe OUTRIGHT winner has covered the pointspread in all but one of the L7 conference championship playoff games. The last team to not do that was New Orleans, who beat Brett Favre and Minnesota in 2010, 31-28 as a 4-point favorite.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, home field advantage • has proven highly important in this round in recent years, with hosts on an 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS run over the L5 seasons. Prior to that, hosts and visitors had split the 10 conference title tilts between 2002 & 2006.There have been seven road favorites in the L20 years of the • conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS. Most recently, Green Bay won in Chicago last January, 21-14 as a 3-point favorite. Beware of double-digit home favorites in the conference • championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as they are 5-2 SU but just 1-6 ATS since 1996.Home favorites in the -3 to -9.5 range have been highly successful • at both winning and covering their respective pointspreads, with a record of 16-7 SU & 15-8 ATS since ’94.The last seven times that a home team has won & covered the • pointspread in the conference title games, that game has also gone OVER the total.In inter-divisional conference championship games of this playoff • round, the favorites are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge.Of the home teams playing this weekend, in the L20 years, New • England is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS at home in AFC championship games, while San Francisco is 1-2 SU & ATS as a host in the NFC title game, but hasn’t been in one since ’98. All three of those Patriots’ games went UNDER the total.

Conference Championship Trends by Seed Number#1-seeds have been the host teams in 26 of the L38 conference • championship games, and have gone 17-9 SU & 13-13 ATS in those games. When matched against any other team than the #2 seeds, their record jumps about 12 percentage points to 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS.Only two teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted • conference championship games in the L20 years, and both won outright and ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007 and Arizona followed that up two years for the NFC. Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5 or #6, have gone just 3-7 SU & • 4-6 ATS dating back to ’96 in the conference title games, including just 1-4 SU & ATS the L3 seasons. There is actually a misconception of how successful these teams have been of late, when only Green Bay of a year ago was able to advance past this round to the Super Bowl.

Conference Championship Trends Regarding TotalsOverall, since ’93, OVER the total is 24-13-1 in the conference • championship playoff games. However, there has been some difference when you consider conference, as AFC games were 11-8 OVER while the NFC contests were 13-5-1 OVER.Three of the L6 conference championship playoff games with • posted totals of less than 37 have gone UNDER, a high percentage considering the frequency of OVER in other games. Those games with extremely high totals, 45 or more, have shown a penchant for going OVER the total, 9-2 since’94.

Following the Line/Total MovesFor the last two weeks we have shown that sharp bettors have been in fact “sharp” when it comes to postseason games. For the conference championship round, that pattern continues. Following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 6-2 ATS since ’05. In other words of the line opens up at home team -3 and moves to -4 during the week, it is assumed that the sharp bettors are favoring the hosts. Recent history proves you should do the same.

Sharp bettors haven’t been anywhere near as sharp on totals however, as they are just 5-10 when moving the totals in conference championship games since ’04. In 11 of those games, bettors pushed the line downward only to see most games shoot OVER the total.

Stats Generated in Conference ChampionshipsThe conference championship playoff round has demonstrated • similar benchmarks to the wildcard round when it comes to the relationship between scoring points and winning. Like the wildcard round’s 20-point magic mark, the figure for the conference championships has been 21. Home teams that have scored 21 points or less are just 4-13 SU & 1-15-1 ATS since ‘93. Alternatively, those home teams that topped the 21-point mark • were 19-2 SU & 17-4 ATS. If you recall, the benchmark for the divisional round was a little higher at 27 points. The magic point total for road teams in conference championship • playoff action has proven to be 16 points, as they are 14-11 SU & 16-8-1 ATS when they reach that mark since ‘93. When scoring less than 16 points, the record of the road teams dropped dramatically to 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS. Teams that gained more first downs in their respective • conference championship games were 4-0 SU & ATS over the L2 years in those games but just 10-10 ATS since ’02.Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 13-3 SU & • ATS run in the conference championship playoffs since ‘03.Conference championship playoff teams that gained more yards • rushing in those games are 12-4 SU & ATS over the L8 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a conference championship playoff game are just 8-8 SU & ATS in that same span.Putting up big passing numbers in conference championship • playoff games has proven a key ingredient to success, since those teams are 11-7 SU & 13-5 ATS since ’02. Similarly, teams that gained more yards per pass attempt in a conference championship playoff game are 12-6 SU & ATS during that same stretch.Strangely, two of the L3 teams to turn the ball over more in the • conference championship games have actually covered the

Recent nFL conference championship playoff Trends


spread. Prior to that, those teams had lost 13 straight games against the Vegas number. Last year, the Jets enjoyed a turnover edge yet lost both SU & ATS to Pittsburgh, and in the prior season, the Saints benefitted from a +4 turnover margin yet failed to cover the 4-point spread versus Minnesota in winning 31-28.

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record TrendsUnlike the last two weeks, there has proven to be only minimal • differences when it comes to the success rates of conference championship teams based upon their regular season records, or the comparison between their record and their opponent’s. For instance, here are the records of home teams based broken up by regular season wins: Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season were 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS, home teams with 12 or 13 regular season wins were 7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS, and those hosts that won 11 or fewer games were 2-1 SU & ATS. Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season • were 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in their conference title games, road teams with 11 regular season wins were 3-7 SU & 5-5 ATS, and those visitors that won 10 or fewer games were 2-3 SU & ATS. Home teams that won at least two more games during the regular • season than their conference championship playoff opponent are 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS since ’02.When just one regular season win separated two conference • championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS over the L5 seasons.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics TrendsTeams that scored more points per game during the regular • season are on an 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS run over the L7 conference championship playoff seasons. The ability to run the football has been much-overrated when • it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 5-15 SU ATS since ’02. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just 7-13 SU & ATS. Furthermore, the in the L3 seasons, the teams that had better regular season numbers in those rushing stats are 0-6 SU & ATS.Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in • terms of conference championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going 14-4 SU & 12-6 ATS over the L9 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams were a bit worse at 12-6 SU & 10-8 ATS.Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the • regular season own a slight edge when it comes to conference championship playoff success, going 11-7 SU & 9-9 ATS over the L9 seasons. The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven important, as • teams with an edge in that offensive category are just 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS over the L7 years on championship Sunday.Like the divisional round and unlike the wildcard round, offensive • yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 6-6 SU & 4-8 ATS in the conference championship playoff round since ’06.The offensive turnovers statistic provides the handicapper zero • edge, since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are exactly 7-7 SU & ATS since ’04 in conference championship games.Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in • the regular season are on a hot streak of 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the L6 conference championship games.

Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics TrendsTeams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular • season are 9-8 SU & ATS dating back to ‘03 in conference championship games.Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have split • the conference championship games in each of the L5 seasons, giving the statistical handicapper little reason to consider it when analyzing the games. While defensive rushing yards hasn’t meant anything significant • when it comes to handicapping conference championship action,

yards PER rush defense has, as teams with an edge in that stat are 10-8 SU & 12-6 ATS since ’03.Conference championship playoff teams with an edge in • defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 10-8 SU & ATS over the L9 seasons in this round. Interestingly, unlike other stats, this is a statistical edge most often for the road team 12 times in those 18 contests.Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency swept the • conference championship playoff action last season and are an impressive 12-6 SU & ATS over the L9 seasons.Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 11-7 SU & ATS • in the AFC & NFC title games since ‘03 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were only slightly less at 10-8 SU & ATS.Defensive yards per point should be given serious consideration • for conference championship Sunday, since teams with an edge there are 13-7 SU & ATS in the L20 games of this round.Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than • their opponent are just 8-10 SU & ATS since ’02 in conference championship play.Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in • the regular season are on a mediocre 8-10 SU & ATS run in the L18 conference championship games.

Teams’ Regular Season Statistics Combined TrendsWith a good base on singular trends to choose from, we did our normal routine of combining some of our more successful statistical angles to come up with these even more successful combination angles concerning the teams in the conference championships and their regular season stats. These are all of the 80%-plus angles we could find:

Teams that were better on both offensive passing yardage and • defensive yards per rush are on a 6-game winning streak in conference championship playoff action, both SU & ATS.Three other different combination angles have scored perfect • 4-0 SU & ATS records dating back to ’03, and each includes teams having edges defensive yards per rush. The defensive YPR combined with any of these: offensive points per game, offensive yards per play, or 3rd down offensive efficiency.Teams with edges in offensive points per game AND defensive • yards per pass attempt are on a run of 6-1 SU & ATS run in the L10 years of this playoff round.Teams with edges in both offensive passing yards and defensive • total yardage have won seven straight conference championship games since ’03 and are 6-1 ATS in the process. Nine of the L10 championship Sunday teams that have owned • edges in offensive passing yardage AND defensive yards per pass attempt have won their games outright while going 8-2 ATS.Teams reaching the conference championship games with • statistical edges in both offensive yards per play AND defensive total yardage have won five straight times while going 4-1 ATS.

SummaryIt takes an ideal set of circumstances, strengths, and momentum to reach the conference championship games, and picking out the two teams that will win and/or cover their games is certainly not a perfect science. Unfortunately it’s not just a matter of analyzing the teams’ entire season’s body of work. It becomes even more difficult when you consider that even the best teams that have played in these games in recent years have won but failed to cover their respective pointspreads. Hopefully some of what we’ve shown you this week helps get you ready for the big games.

Sometimes we tend to overcomplicate things at this time of year as we look for that golden nugget that is going to deliver big profits. In speaking with some of our experts about their own personal strategies, we heard some pretty simplistic but possibly successful theories…”Follow the money” or “Just take the better quarterback”. Maybe it is that simple, after all, we’ve shown you the playoff numbers for the “sharps” over the last three weeks, and the last five different quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl are Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli & Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. That’s basically a snapshot of the league’s top six signal callers.

Whatever method you use to eventually decide your plays for this weekend, good luck, and we’ll see you back in a couple of weeks as we take on Super Bowl XLVI!

Recent nFL conference championship playof f TrendsThe Don Best Weekly Insider



Date Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf

1/17/93 #2 - MIAMI 10 #4 - BUFFALO 29 2 2.5 39 41 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/17/93 #1 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 #2 - DALLAS 30 -4 -4 38.5 37 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/23/94 #1 - BUFFALO 30 #3 - KANSAS CITY 13 -4 -3 37 40 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/23/94 #1 - DALLAS 38 #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 21 -5.5 -3 45.5 48 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/15/95 #1 - PITTSBURGH 13 #2 - SAN DIEGO 17 -6.5 -9.5 35 36 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/15/95 #1 - SAN FRANCISCO 38 #2 - DALLAS 28 -7 -7.5 48 46.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/14/96 #2 - PITTSBURGH 20 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS 16 -11 -12 41.5 41.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC1/14/96 #1 - DALLAS 38 #3 - GREEN BAY 27 -9 -8.5 50.5 50 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/12/97 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 20 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 6 -8 -7 45 44 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/12/97 #1 - GREEN BAY 30 #2 - CAROLINA 13 -10 -12 39 38 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/11/98 #1 - SAN FRANCISCO 10 #2 - GREEN BAY 23 1.5 2.5 43.5 44 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/11/98 #2 - PITTSBURGH 21 #4 - DENVER 24 -1 3 41 42 ROAD PUSH OVER AFC

1/17/99 #1 - DENVER 23 #2 - NY JETS 10 -8 -8.5 51 51.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/17/99 #1 - MINNESOTA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 30 -11 -10 55 54.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/23/00 #1 - ST LOUIS 11 #2 - TAMPA BAY 6 -14 -15 46 44 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC1/23/00 #1 - JACKSONVILLE 14 #4 - TENNESSEE 33 -7 -7 39 41 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/14/01 #1 - NY GIANTS 41 #2 - MINNESOTA 0 1 2.5 41.5 43.5 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/14/01 #2 - OAKLAND 3 #4 - BALTIMORE 16 -6 -6 39 36 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/27/02 #1 - PITTSBURGH 17 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 24 -7 -10 35.5 38 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/27/02 #1 - ST LOUIS 29 #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 -10 -10 49 47.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC

1/19/03 #1 - OAKLAND 41 #2 - TENNESSEE 24 -7 -9 47 46 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/19/03 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 10 #2 - TAMPA BAY 27 -4 -4.5 35.5 33.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/18/04 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 3 #3 - CAROLINA 14 -5 -4 39 36.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/18/04 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 24 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 14 -4 -3.5 41 42 HOME HOME UNDER AFC

1/23/05 #1 - PITTSBURGH 27 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 41 2 3 38 36.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/23/05 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 10 -4.5 -6 42 37 HOME HOME Push NFC

1/22/06 #1 - SEATTLE 34 #5 - CAROLINA 14 -5.5 -4 43 43.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/22/06 #2 - DENVER 17 #6 - PITTSBURGH 34 -3.5 -3 42.5 40.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/21/07 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 38 #4 - NEW ENGLAND 34 -3 -3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/21/07 #1 - CHICAGO 39 #2 - NEW ORLEANS 14 -3 -3 44 42.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/20/08 #2 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - NY GIANTS 23 -6.5 -7.5 43.5 41 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC1/20/08 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 21 #3 - SAN DIEGO 12 -15 -14 51 47.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC

1/18/09 #4 - ARIZONA 32 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 25 3 3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/18/09 #2 - PITTSBURGH 23 #6 - BALTIMORE 14 -4.5 -6 33 35.5 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/24/10 #1 - NEW ORLEANS 31 #2 - MINNESOTA 28 -4 -4 53 53.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC1/24/10 #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 30 #5 - NY JETS 17 -7.5 -7.5 41 40 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/23/11 #2 - CHICAGO 14 #6 - GREEN BAY 21 3 3 43 42 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/23/11 #2 - PITTSBURGH 24 #6 - NY JETS 19 -3 -4.5 38.5 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC

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1998 Season

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Divisional playof f game Log - Last 19 seasons


Baltimore might not have played its most complete game of the season last week in turning back Houston, but nonetheless, the Ravens advanced and are one step away from their first Super Bowl berth in 11 years. The Patriots meanwhile, put up a huge effort and blasted the Broncos in the divisional round to reach their first AFC title game since 2008. The teams’ varied performances last weekend have helped lead to a pointspread that is over the critical touchdown mark, as New England was favored by 7.5-points as of presstime. The teams have only met one time previously in postseason play, and the Ravens won that one, 33-14 at Foxboro in the wildcard round two years ago. That game had a much different feel, as the Patriots were just 3.5-point favorites, but got held to just 196 yards of offense and Tom Brady was intercepted three times. Since that game, there has only been one other meeting between

the teams, with HC Bill Belichick’s team winning a 23-20 showdown at home in October of 2010. This contest will be one of familiarity for reasons other than head-to-head play however, as the Ravens are quite accustomed to playing on the road in the postseason, while New England has grown quite comfortable at home in January. For Baltimore, this will be the eighth time in nine postseason games that it is on the road. The Ravens are 4-3 SU & ATS in the prior seven, with just one appearance in the AFC Championship, a 23-14 loss at Pittsburgh in 2009. New England will be playing its seventh consecutive non-Super Bowl playoff game at home, boasting a record of 4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS in the last six. The Patriots are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in conference title games under Belichick.

BALTIMORE (2) 23.4 19 29-123 [4.3] 34-19-210 [6.2] 14.2 16.4 17 26-95 [3.6] 34-18-196 [5.8] 17.7 +6 +7.0 NEW ENGLAND (1) 32.8 25 28-112 [4.1] 38-25-320 [8.4] 13.2 20.7 23 26-119 [4.5] 38-23-283 [7.5] 19.4 +16 +12.1

BALTIMoRe neW engLAnD DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU01-15 VS HOUSTON - 7.5 37 20-13 W L U 01-14 VS DENVER -14 51 45-10 W W O 01-01 at CINCINNATI - 3 37.5 24-16 W W O 01-01 VS BUFFALO -10 50 49-21 W W O 12-24 VS CLEVELAND -10.5 38.5 20-14 W L U 12-24 VS MIAMI - 7 49 27-24 W L O 12-18 at SAN DIEGO - 1 45 14-34 L L O 12-18 at DENVER - 7 47.5 41-23 W W O 12-11 VS INDIANAPOLIS -16 41.5 24-10 W L U 12-11 at WASHINGTON - 7.5 46.5 34-27 W L O 12-04 at CLEVELAND - 7 38 24-10 W W U 12-04 VS INDIANAPOLIS -20 48 31-24 W L O 11-24 VS SAN FRANCISCO - 3 40.5 16-6 W W U 11-27 at PHILADELPHIA - 3 51 38-20 W W O 11-20 VS CINCINNATI - 7 40 31-24 W P O 11-21 VS KANSAS CITY -17 46.5 34-3 W W U 11-13 at SEATTLE - 6.5 38.5 17-22 L L O 11-13 at NY JETS + 3 47.5 37-16 W W O 11-06 at PITTSBURGH + 3 42 23-20 W W O 11-06 VS NY GIANTS - 9.5 51.5 20-24 L L U 10-30 VS ARIZONA -11 42.5 30-27 W L O 10-30 at PITTSBURGH - 3 51.5 17-25 L L U 10-24 at JACKSONVILLE -10 38.5 7-12 L L U 10-16 VS DALLAS - 6.5 54 20-16 W L U 10-16 VS HOUSTON - 7 43.5 29-14 W W U 10-09 VS NY JETS - 7.5 50 30-21 W W O 10-02 VS NY JETS - 5 43 34-17 W W O 10-02 at OAKLAND - 6 55.5 31-19 W W U 09-25 at ST LOUIS - 5.5 42 37-7 W W O 09-25 at BUFFALO - 7 54 31-34 L L O 09-18 at TENNESSEE - 5.5 38.5 13-26 L L O 09-18 VS SAN DIEGO - 6 53.5 35-21 W W O 09-11 VS PITTSBURGH - 1 37 35-7 W W O 09-12 at MIAMI - 7 46.5 38-24 W W O

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS DEFENSIVE STATISTICS2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF

Many experts would agree that Baltimore was outplayed by Houston last week, but four Texans turnovers made the difference. The Ravens were actually outgained in the game 315-227, leaving serious doubts whether they can actually keep up with New England’s high-flying offense in this contest. Baltimore is listed as a sizeable underdog, only the second time this season in which HC John Harbaugh’s team won’t be laying the points. Incidentally, they beat Pittsburgh in that only other contest, 23-20 back in early November. On the road, the Ravens were just 4-4 SU & ATS this season, and they will need their aging but savvy defense to step up to give the team a chance to score the upset. That said, the offense should have better success than a week ago, if for no other reason than the competition, as the Patriots defense has been susceptible to all facets of the game. To be successful, Joe Flacco is going to have to carry more fo the load on his shoulders, while giving his playmakers, RB Ray Rice & WR’s Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith opportunities.

New England lit up Denver’s defense for 509 yards and 45 points in the divisional round and is playing with the utmost confidence heading into the conference title tilt. Tom Brady set a postseason record with six touchdown passes in the game, utilizing both of his playmaking tight ends as well as Wes Welker with equal aplomb. Unlike Denver however, Baltimore’s defensive strength is in stopping opposing quarterbacks as they ranked in the Top 3 in the NFL in both yards allowed and yards per attempt. Though it hasn’t been mentioned too greatly, the Patriots have to be motivated by the fact that Baltimore broke their seemingly impenetrable playoff home field advantage a couple years back. Head coach Bill Belichick’s team was beaten just once in Foxboro this season, 24-20 by the Giants in November, and has put up 32.3 PPG in nine home contests overall. With the defensive unit ranking only ahead of Green Bay in terms of overall stopping power, they may need 30+ points to win here. You recall what happened to the Packers on their home field a week ago.

gAMe TRenDsNEW ENGLAND IS• 16-8-1 ATS(L25G) Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17 PPG(CS)NEW ENGLAND IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) All Games• BALTIMORE IS 3-6-1 ATS(L10G) Against decent-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(L50G)•

Don BesT sTRengTh RATIngs PowerRatings EffectiveStrg Simulation Bettors’Ratings#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 BALTIMORE 50.5 27 22 23 20 302 NEW ENGLAND -7.5 30 -6.5 26 28 27 Don BesT excLusIve pIcks – *BesT BeTDON BEST JIM DON BEST ROBERT DON BEST BRYAN DON BEST JASON DON BEST PAUL CONSENSUSBaltimore* New England* Baltimore* Baltimore* New England* BaltimoreOVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

AFc chAMpIonshIp(301) BALTIMoRe [su:13-4 | ATs:8-8-1] AT (302) neW engLAnD (-7.5 | 50.5) [su:14-3 | ATs:10-7]

JAnuARy 22, 2012 3:00 pM on cBsgILLeTTe sTADIuM (FoxBoRo, MA)



QuarterbackOn paper this appears to be a complete mismatch. Tom Brady had one of best seasons from statistical standpoint and has led New England to 14 victories, including nine in a row. What the Patriots lack in the deep passing they make up for with efficient use of the tight ends for bigger gains and they averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allowed 6.9 YPPA. Joe Flacco continued his ordinary play in win over Houston. Flacco is not processing information quickly enough and has started to look down when faced with a steady pass rush. In order to defeat New England on the road, Flacco will need his best game of the year and match Brady. Edge – Patriots 5.5 points

RBs and ReceiversIf Baltimore is to advance to the Super Bowl, Ray Rice will require 160 yards of total offense and 30 or more touches. He’s the one difference-maker in this game for the Ravens and since the New England defense is not nearly as good as Houston’s, Rice could have explosive plays. The passing weaponry that was supposed to help Flacco never materialized, but that does not mean Anquan Bolden, Lee Evans and Torrey Smith will not be a factor, especially down the middle or within 10 yards of the sidelines on either side (weak points in Patriots secondary) if Flacco can deliver the pigskin. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are a matchup nightmare, which allows Wes Welker to run underneath routes and sets up Brady to take deep shots to Deon Branch. The Patriots running backs serve as a way to move the chains with few big play possibilities.Edge – Patriots 2 points

Offensive LineBoth units are better by the sum of their parts then individual talent. Baltimore has to afford Flacco more time in the pocket to throw and RT Michael Oher has to do better in pass protection and run blocking. The Ravens O-Line has to establish Rice as a runner. New England’s offensive line needs to seal the edge to permit whatever Pats running back to bounce outside and attack Baltimore second level defense. The Patriots two guards and center have to keep Brady’s feet clean since he is more skittish with players at his feet since his knee injury.Edge – Patriots 1 point

Defensive Front 7Baltimore has the edge over New England, just not as much as one might imagine. The Ravens only permit 3.6 yards per carry on the ground and are physically large in the middle to force teams to run outside. The Patriots offensive line doesn’t figure to create much push. How you defeat Baltimore up front is creating seams with quick hitting plays and chip linebackers for extra yardage on runs. Bill Belichick has pieced

together the defense with NT Vince Wolfork and LBs Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich. What this group has to do is keep Baltimore behind the chains and the give the pass rush a chance to bother Flacco to cover up for secondary.Edge – Ravens 2.5 points

SecondaryForget the Denver game, New England has the worst pass defense in the NFL thanks to two extremely weak cornerbacks in Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty. It’s hard to find a strength from either and they have played more to survive most of the season. Having Patrick Chung back at safety does improve the unit as whole, but they will give up yards and try and contain opponents once they are inside the 30-yard line. The reduced area works towards Belichick’s mission of not surrendering points and is why they were second in the NFL in yards per points allowed. Baltimore’s experienced back unit will be under pressure trying to contain the Patriots massive tight ends and running diagonally with their receivers across the field. This will mean less free-lancing for S Ed Reed. Watch for the Ravens to mix press coverage on first down and third and long to disturb the timing of Brady’s offense.Edge – Ravens 2 points

Special TeamsNeither team places an immense amount of time on being a top special teams unit, satisfied its average and not a detriment. Steven Gostkowski is a proven pressure kicker with better long range than Billy Cundiff. New England overall punt kicking and coverage is ever so slightly better.Edge – Patriots 0.5 points

CoachingHe doesn’t always win, however Belichick is still the best coach in the game. He’s able to adapt on the move better and his game-planning continues to be among the best in the league, challenging his players’ intelligence with novel game plans that keep them interested and excited to perform and execute. John Harbaugh is an above average head coach and a proven winner in the postseason. His offenses tend to go the way of how his quarterback is playing, more wide open when Flacco is confident and more restrictive when he senses hesitation. Both coaches are known risk-takers.Edge – Patriots 1.5 points

IntangiblesGiven the fact Tom Brady, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are advancing in years, when you reach this point you have to take advantage of the situation, because the future is not guaranteed. Taking the better quarterback and coach is nice formula for winning, further helped playing at home.Edge – Patriots 2.5 points

combined edge - new england by 8.5

AFc championship Betting Breakdown


It certainly isn’t the matchup that most football fans expected in the NFC title game, with the league’s top ranked offenses, both favorites, having been knocked out of the postseason last weekend. Still, it is a game with numerous storylines and one that is expected to be tight, with oddsmakers posting the host 49ers as favorites of less than a field goal over the Giants. New York was written off by almost everyone in midseason including Fox analyst Jimmie Johnson, who has since been ridiculed for putting the “fork” in HC Tom Coughlin’s club, but the G-Men have rallied with two playoff-like wins over the Jets and Cowboys to reach the postseason, and then continuing on with wins over Atlanta and at Green Bay. It is a run that is drawing comparisons to that of 2008 postseason, when Coughlin’s crew unexpectedly won three straight NFC playoff games en route to the Super Bowl title. With the win Sunday at Lambeau Field, the Giants have now won five straight postseason games away from

home. San Francisco has won three straight playoff games in front of the home folks, but that streak dates back all the way to ’99. The prior season was the last time that the 49ers were in the NFC championship game, a 23-10 loss to Green Bay. HC Jim Harbaugh’s team boasts a near perfect 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS mark at Candlestick Park, and one of those wins, the 27-20 decision over New York in November stopped a 3-game SU & ATS losing streak in head-to-head play with the Giants. In terms of the playoffs, these teams have met seven times previously but only once in the last 19 seasons. That game was a classic, won by the host 49ers 39-38, highlighted by a controversial finish. Prior to that, they split six postseason games, with the best-known contest being the Giants’ 15-13 win in San Francisco in the 1991 NFC championship game, a game best-remembered for Leonard Marshall’s injury-inducing hit on 49ers QB Joe Montana.

NY GIANTS (4) 25.3 20 26-94 [3.6] 36-22-296 [8.1] 15.4 23.4 21 27-119 [4.5] 38-23-250 [6.7] 15.8 +10 +1.9 SAN FRANCISCO (2) 24.5 18 31-128 [4.2] 29-18-188 [6.5] 12.9 15.4 17 22-75 [3.5] 38-22-243 [6.4] 20.6 +32 +9.1

ny gIAnTs sAn FRAncIsco DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU01-15 at GREEN BAY + 8.5 54 37-20 W W O 01-14 VS NEW ORLEANS + 3 46 36-32 W W O 01-08 VS ATLANTA - 3 47 24-2 W W U 01-01 at ST LOUIS -12.5 34.5 34-27 W L O 01-01 VS DALLAS - 3 48 31-14 W W U 12-24 at SEATTLE - 2.5 36.5 19-17 W L U 12-24 at NY JETS + 3 46 29-14 W W U 12-19 VS PITTSBURGH - 3 36.5 20-3 W W U 12-18 VS WASHINGTON - 6 45 10-23 L L U 12-11 at ARIZONA - 3 38.5 19-21 L L O 12-11 at DALLAS + 4.5 49 37-34 W W O 12-04 VS ST LOUIS -14 39 26-0 W W U 12-04 VS GREEN BAY + 7 54 35-38 L W O 11-24 at BALTIMORE + 3 40.5 6-16 L L U 11-28 at NEW ORLEANS + 7 51 24-49 L L O 11-20 VS ARIZONA -10 40.5 23-7 W W U 11-20 VS PHILADELPHIA - 5.5 45 10-17 L L U 11-13 VS NY GIANTS - 4 43 27-20 W W O 11-13 at SAN FRANCISCO + 4 43 20-27 L L O 11-06 at WASHINGTON - 4.5 37.5 19-11 W W U 11-06 at NEW ENGLAND + 9.5 51.5 24-20 W W U 10-30 VS CLEVELAND - 9 38.5 20-10 W W U 10-30 VS MIAMI - 9.5 43 20-17 W L U 10-16 at DETROIT + 5 44.5 25-19 W W U 10-16 VS BUFFALO - 3 49 27-24 W P O 10-09 VS TAMPA BAY - 3 41 48-3 W W O 10-09 VS SEATTLE - 9.5 43.5 25-36 L L O 10-02 at PHILADELPHIA + 9.5 43.5 24-23 W W O 10-02 at ARIZONA - 1 45.5 31-27 W W O 09-25 at CINCINNATI + 1 38 13-8 W W U 09-25 at PHILADELPHIA + 8 46.5 29-16 W W U 09-18 VS DALLAS + 3 41 24-27 L P O 09-19 VS ST LOUIS - 7 43 28-16 W W O 09-11 VS SEATTLE - 6 38 33-17 W W O 09-11 at WASHINGTON - 2 41 14-28 L L O

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS DEFENSIVE STATISTICS2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF

The Giants are on a roll, and it’s hard to believe that this is the same team that lost five of six games back in November and December. Confidence is a major factor in the NFl playoffs nowadays however, and the G-Men are beaming with it. They’ll have a chip on their shoulder in looking to avenge the loss to the 49ers that actually started that 1-5 skid. The win at Green Bay was stunning, as New York stifled Aaron Rodgers and the powerful Packer offense while also giving Eli Manning all kinds of time to work Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz into the mix. Both of those wideouts have been incredibly effective during the recent surge using varying methods. On defense, HC Tom Coughlin relies on his front four, which has shown the ability to disrupt opposing offenses without any additional blitz help. That will be a key in this game once again, as 49ers QB Alex Smith doesn’t have a rich history of being able to pick apart defenses. New York actually boasts a better road record than home this season and will look to improve on its 6-3 SU & ATS record away from MetLife Stadium.

There were nine turnovers forced by the Giants and 49ers in the divisional round victories, and it can be argued that it was the single biggest decider of the San Francisco win. That said, the 49ers played with a hunger and ferocity that has not been seen in quite a while by these eyes. Every Saints’ player that touched the ball was fair game, and if their pride wasn’t hurt enough by the loss, their bodies had to be feeling the hurt on Sunday. Expect a similarly physical effort from HC Jim Harbaugh’s team on Sunday evening, as they look to protect their 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS mark at Candlestick Park this season. It seems a distant memory when they lost to Dallas at home back in September, 27-24 as 3-point dogs. It’s also safe to say that the team taking the field this weekend shares little in common with that one in terms of confidence and comfort level with their first year head coach’s systems and expectations. Offensively, the 49ers have demonstrated great balance in recent weeks and QB Alex Smith has finally shown some of the skills and leadership qualities that made him the first pick in the NFL draft over Aaron Rodgers. If he is able to utilize TE Vernon Davis as effectively as last week, San Francisco could be making a trip to Indianapolis in two weeks.

gAMe TRenDsNY GIANTS IS 22-8-1 ATS(L50G) AGA• INST GOOD TEAMS WITH 80%+ WINNING PCT(CS)SAN FRANCISCO IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards per play(L25G)• NY GIANTS IS 20-5 ATS(L25G) on Road After SU win•

Don BesT sTRengTh RATIngs PowerRatings EffectiveStrg Simulation Bettors’Ratings#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?303 NY GIANTS 43 25 20 19 OVER 22 304 SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 26 -4.5 26 29 SF 24 Don BesT excLusIve pIcks – *BesT BeTDON BEST JIM DON BEST ROBERT DON BEST BRYAN DON BEST JASON DON BEST PAUL CONSENSUSNY Giants* San Francisco San Francisco* San Francisco* NY Giants* San FranciscoUNDER OVER* OVER OVER OVER OVER

nFc chAMpIonshIp(303) ny gIAnTs [su:11-7 | ATs:10-7-1] AT (304) sAn FRAncIsco (-2.5 | 43) [su:14-3 | ATs:12-4-1]

JAnuARy 22, 2012 6:30 pM on FoxcAnDLesTIck pARk (sAn FRAncIsco, cA)



QuarterbackAt the beginning of the season, Eli Manning would be worth more than a touchdown choice over Alex Smith. While Manning is coming off his best overall season, no veteran quarterback made a greater improvement than Smith. Under the tutelage of head coach Jim Harbaugh, Smith has grown as signal caller and now can stand tall in the pocket and can deliver a precise throw under pressure. Smith is still a good athlete and has to be smart to step up in the pocket to avoid the rush and supply his team with first downs as a scrambler. Manning admittedly would force throws in the past, but having grown together with this group of receivers, there is a different confidence in his game compared to the past. If either becomes rattled by the defensive pressure they are sure to face, this will make them a NFC runner-up. Edge – Giants 3 points

RBs and ReceiversThe combination of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter draws a slight edge over Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Gore is the surest thing at running back in this contest, with Hunter the biggest potential wild card to excel. Bradshaw will do his job, while Jacobs needs carries to be productive. New York’s trio of receivers is handily the best of the final four and each is capable of a big play at a moment’s notice. Vernon Davis will be a focal point of the Giants defense and Michael Crabtree will hurt his squad dramatically with another subpar showing like last week. Crabtree is worth one point in either direction depending on how he plays.Edge – Giants 2 points

Offensive LineThe 49ers offensive line doesn’t try to fool teams; they line up and attempt to beat you to the punch in the running game. San Francisco run-first mentality places a premium to staying on schedule and dictating pace. It will be worth watching to see if New York goes off the page and blitzes on third and long, since that is the Niners greatest line weakness. The New York O-Line improved as the season wore on which opened up the running game. This won’t be a simple task against the San Francisco defense and keeping Eli upright is the only way the passing game can thrive.Edge – 49ers 1 point

Defensive Front 7This week there will be a lot of attention paid to the Giants front four and deservedly so. The combination of Justin Tuck Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul was the best group coming into the postseason and there have backed up the praise both as pass rushers and run-stoppers. Nonetheless, San Francisco’s front seven is a relentless contingent that was one of the best all season. While different

individuals will be talked about as –being on a mission- no player epitomizes that phrase more than 11-year man Justin Smith. His motor is non-stop and he was a big reason why New Orleans only has 14 points after three quarters last week. Right behind Smith is LB’s Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith, a superb duo of playmakers. Edge – 49ers 1.5 points

SecondaryFor the first 10 games of the year, the New York secondary was often a liability. A combination of injuries, a lack of cohesiveness and mediocre play made the Giants vulnerable to medium to deep passes repeatedly. As the front four improved, the G-Men’s back four gained confidence in not having to cover as long and linebackers did a better job in underneath coverage, leaving fewer passing lanes open. For the Niners, Carlos Rogers was the lockdown cover corner they needed to improve the entire secondary. His ability to take one opposing receiver out made life easier for the rest of the last line of defense and S Donte Whitner is always around the ball. Edge – 49ers 1 point

Special TeamsThough the New York special teams are more than adequate, San Francisco are truly special. Kicker David Akers was provided numerous opportunities with a sluggish red zone offense and delivered. Punter Andy Lee was able to get San Francisco out of bad field position with booming punts and returner Ted Ginn Jr. is a big play stick of dynamite. Edge – 49ers 1.5 points

CoachingJim Harbaugh’s rah-rah rally the troop’s style was frowned upon before the season started. But Harbaugh’s message was far more than that notion, it was developing a daily identity and putting players in the best position to succeed and giving them confidence, which brought out the best in this team. Tom Coughlin is no-nonsense type who was willing to make changes in 2007 and his team responded with Super Bowl. This year he was more a cheerleader and not giving up on this club during the darker losses. The earlier defeat to Green Bay gave this team confidence they could play with the best and Coughlin and his staff have cultivated a series of strong game plans which has helped the Giants arrive at this juncture.Edge – Giants 0.5 points

IntangiblesNew York is the hot team riding the wave of emotional confidence, while San Francisco is the more stable club that comes ready to every week and does not beat itself. The 49ers home field brilliance is offset in part by the Giants 6-3 SU and ATS road record. Edge – 49ers 1.5 points

combined edge – san Francisco by 1

nFc championship Betting Breakdown

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