weekly football tip sheet · 2016-12-20 · 2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION AUGUST...

weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 16NFL Week 15

College Football Week 1 Bowl Games

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

Week 16 of the 2016-17 Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication is a special one, as we introduce the first seven bowl games of the season, starting with the New Mexico Bowl game on Saturday afternoon and wrapping up with the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday evening. Those are just eight of the 41 games we will cover in the next three weeks’ issues. So grab a seat on the couch, a beverage of your choice, and of course, your VIFW to get ready for all the betting action.

In this issue of the VIFW, we will dedicate a whole page of in-depth coverage of each and every bowl game, including stats, matchups, editorial, our popular Strength Ratings, and of course, picks from our group of handicappers. Our schedule will remain the same as always, covering the games on a Wednesday through Tuesday basis, so don’t panic when you don’t see the games from December 22nd into Christmas Eve, as we will cover those next week.

Perhaps the highlight of this week’s issue is our annual Conference Bowl Trends article, prepared by Steve Makinen. He wasn’t able to put an entire Bowl Guide together for us this year but he has lent some of his expertise to our tipsheet, including this great piece that highlights key trends from each of the conferences across the country. Some fo the trends he covers are how leagues do as favorites or underdogs, how do they do in the biggest of bowl games and lesser ones, and how they fare against one another. He does all of this from a betting perspective too, so don’t miss out on that piece.

This week’s VIFW issue not only covers the bowl games, but also the key NFL week 15 action. Hopefully you followed our handicapper this last week, as they combined to go 7-5 ATS in College & NFL Best Bets. VI Doug kept up his torrid pace in the NFL with a 2-1 week on Best Bets, as did VI Jim. Doug continues to soar above the 70% ATS mark for the season in the pro’s. That is an incredible pace, and hopefully you have latched on and put your trust in Doug. He prepares as diligently as anyone we’ve ever had in the seat, and his success is well earned. He also puts together the Early Line Moves piece that has become quite popular with readers this season.

Our thanks goes out again to all of our readers. We appreciate your continued support this season for the Weekly! This is a great time of year to enjoy football & family. Best of luck from VI on all of the weekend’s action!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .........................................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ......................................................................................................3

NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .........................................................4

NFL Top Weekly Trends ...................................................................................5

NFL Strength Ratings ......................................................................................6

NFL Matchups .................................................................................................7

College Football VI Picks .............................................................................13

Conference by Conference Trends in Bowl Games ................................14

Bowl Game Matchups ................................................................................20

Football Line Moves .....................................................................................27

The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2017, so you’ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs.

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE




301 LOS ANGELES 40.5 38.5 305 TAMPA BAY 46 47 329 PITTSBURGH -3.5 -3P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NBC P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

302 SEATTLE -14 -15 306 DALLAS -7 -7 330 CINCINNATI 45 44307 DETROIT 44 41

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 303 MIAMI -3 -2 308 NY GIANTS -4 -5 331 CAROLINA 51 51.5

P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL 309 PHILADELPHIA 42 41 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN304 NY JETS 41.5 38 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 332 WASHINGTON -4.5 -5

310 BALTIMORE -6 -6311 GREEN BAY -6.5 -6.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 312 CHICAGO 44 40.5313 INDIANAPOLIS 44 44 213 C MICHIGAN 67.5 68.5

201 TX-SAN ANTONIO 64 62.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM ESPNP: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN 314 MINNESOTA -4 -4.5 214 TULSA -12 -12

202 NEW MEXICO -7 -6.5 315 CLEVELAND 44 42.5P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

316 BUFFALO -11 -11203 HOUSTON -3.5 -4.5 317 TENNESSEE 43.5 42.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 215 MEMPHIS 77 79204 SAN DIEGO ST 60 54.5 318 KANSAS CITY -6 -5.5 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN

319 JACKSONVILLE 41 39 216 W KENTUCKY -5 -5P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

207 ARKANSAS ST 49.5 49.5 320 HOUSTON -6 -6P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM CBSC 321 NEW ORLEANS 50 49.5

208 UCF -6.5 -6 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 322 ARIZONA -3 -2.5323 SAN FRANCISCO 51.5 52

209 APPALACHIAN ST 56 57.5 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN 324 ATLANTA -13 -14

210 TOLEDO -1.5 -1 325 NEW ENGLAND -3 -3P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

326 DENVER 44.5 44.5211 SOUTHERN MISS -2 -4.5 327 OAKLAND -3 -3

P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 212 LA LAFAYETTE 57 58.5 328 SAN DIEGO 51 50.5

NEW ORLEANS BOWL SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LA

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2016

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES cont'd

MARLINS PARK - MIAMI, FLORIDA

FAU STADIUM - BOCA RATON, FL

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMESSATURDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2016

NEW MEXICO BOWL

LAS VEGAS BOWL SAM BOYD STADIUM - LAS VEGAS, NV

CURE BOWL CITRUS BOWL STADIUM - ORLANDO, FL

CAMELLIA BOWL CRAMTON BOWL - MONTGOMERY, AL

NFL WEEK 15THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2016

UNIVERSITY STAD. - ALBUQUERQUE, NM

NFL WEEK 15 cont'dSUNDAY, DECEMBER18, 2016 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2016

NFL WEEK 15 cont'd

MIAMI BEACH BOWL

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016BOCA RATON BOWL


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VI Jim says…I can’t imagine the weight that was lifted off Rams’ players on Monday when Jeff Fisher was let go of his head coach duties. Now, the Rams face what is actually one of their favorite matchups each season, Seattle, and they are catching 15 points to boot. The series history between the Rams and Seahawks lately is strange, you wouldn’t believe it if you knew nothing about it. The Rams have won three straight outright and ATS and are 7-2 ATS in the L9. For whatever the reason, Seattle just struggles with the Rams. The hosts also come off an ugly loss at Green Bay, setting up a nice system: Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a road favorite. System record is 38-15 ATS in L53. While true that Seattle has been much better at home than on the road, this is a tough matchup for them historically, a brutal pointspread to cover, and the pressure is off the Rams entirely. As hard as it might be too swallow, I’m taking the points here.

VI Jason says…Hot quarterbacks are impossible to ignore in the NFL, but when a veteran star starts hitting his mark and is playing with purpose, it’s all the more enrichening. That said, how can you not like what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are doing right now as he has made himself look like a pretty good prognosticator as well as quarterback of late? I didn’t believe him when he said his team could run the table a few weeks ago. How could anyone, the Packers were awful against Washington and in the few weeks before. Next up for Green Bay is a team that Rodgers has abused in his career: Chicago. He was won six straight at Soldier Field, both outright & ATS. His success against is well documented there. However, most importantly, his team’s defense has managed to correct itself in a matter of a few games. They have held the last three opponents to 12 PPG, and with Chicago scoring just 17 PPG overall, I just can see the Bears staying in this one. Green rolls in Chicago…AGAIN.

VI Doug says…Pittsburgh is rounding nicely into form and credit the coaches for doing their part. The Steelers offense just was not the same as last year’s, not having as many top quality receivers. Once they improved the blocking schemes to have Le’Veon Bell to run the ball more and effectively, the passing game opened up. On defense, Pittsburgh is dominating first and second down, which forces opposing teams to throw on third and long and the defense is not spending as much time on the field and is more rested with Steelers balanced offense. Cincinnati has looked better the last couple weeks, but Pittsburgh brings out the worst in the Bengals, especially at home, where they are 5-21 and 6-19-1 ATS against their hated rivals. It won’t be simple, just Pitt by 7.

VI Jim 79-56 (59%) 17-22 (44%)*

VI Jason 84-51 (62%) 24-14 (63%)*

VI Doug 79-56 (59%) 28-11 (72%)*

Power Ratings59-76 (44%)

Effective Strength 66-69 (49%)

Forecaster 60-75 (44%)

Bettors Ratings 63-72 (47%)

Consensus 74-61 (55%)

Thursday, December 15, 2016 - (301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLE (-15)Los

Angeles*

Seattle* Seattle Los

Angeles

Los

Angeles

Los

Angeles

Los

Angeles

Los Angeles

Thursday, December 15, 2016 - (301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLE - TOTAL (38.5)OVER UNDER* UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGO (+6.5)Green Bay Green

Bay*

Green

Bay

Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGO - TOTAL (40.5)OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (313) INDIANAPOLIS at (314) MINNESOTA (-4.5)Indianapolis Minnesota Minnesota* Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Indianapolis Minnesota

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (313) INDIANAPOLIS at (314) MINNESOTA - TOTAL (44)OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ARIZONA (-2.5)New

Orleans*

Arizona Arizona New

Orleans

Arizona New

Orleans

Arizona Arizona

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ARIZONA - TOTAL (49.5)UNDER UNDER UNDER* OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (329) PITTSBURGH at (330) CINCINNATI (+3)Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh* Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati

Sunday, December 18, 2016 - (329) PITTSBURGH at (330) CINCINNATI - TOTAL (44)OVER* OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

DECEMBER 15, 2016(301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLEIt has been crazy the spell the Rams have cast over Seattle with a 7-2 ATS mark. The Seahawks have been a favorite 10 consecutive times and with the issues they have had are 3-7 ATS in that role. These games are always presumed to be defensive, which is why there has only been one total as high as 44 points since 2008. Even with that the Under is 11-4-1.

DECEMBER 17, 2016(303) MIAMI at (304) N.Y. JETSNot really sure why but the NFL has telecasted a Saturday before Christmas game for years. This year we get a AFC East divisional battle and one the Jets have owned of late at 5-0-1 ATS. Strangely enough, there has been three Pushes in the last 10 confrontations, leaving the underdog 4-3-3 ATS. The Under comes in at 7-4-1 in the past six years.

DECEMBER 18, 2016(305) TAMPA BAY at (306) DALLASEven as recently as six weeks ago, this looked like an insignificant contest, but that has switched with the game now on Sunday Night Football. This will be Tampa Bay’s first appearance in eight years and they have covered the last two with Dallas, after going 0-4 ATS from 2006-11. The Cowboys have been favored in the last six, making the favorite 4-2 ATS. Going back to 2000, the Under is 6-2-1.

(307) DETROIT at (308) N.Y. GIANTSPotentially very meaningful game in the NFC for both these teams playoff chances. Detroit is expected to be a small road underdog and they would be fine with that if history were to repeat itself with dogs 7-2 ATS in recent contests. In accordance with this, the visitor is superb 8-1 ATS, with a few more points scored than expected with the Over 6-3.

(309) PHILADELPHIA at (310) BALTIMOREThe 1997 matchup ended up in a 10-10 tie, which gave Philadelphia it’s lone recent cover as 2.5-point road underdogs. Though the Eagles have won two of the last three, they are 0-3 ATS against Baltimore. The favorite is only 1-3 against the spread in all contests played since 1997, with lower prevailing and the Under at 2-1-1.

(311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGOThe NFL’s longest rivalry resumes and it has been one Green Bay has been in complete control of at 14-4 ATS since 2008. The Packers in fact are 8-1 ATS at Soldier Field. With the Pack having the better teams the favorite is on 10-2 ATS move. The road club is 6-2 ATS of late, as the Bears have actually

played better at Lambeau Field. The total has been divided in half in the last 10 battles.

(313) INDIANAPOLIS at (314) MINNESOTAIndianapolis has defeated Minnesota four consecutive times (3-1 ATS). Both are trying to remain in playoff hunt and in these Colts wins, the Under has been 3-1. Looking back to 1997, the home team and the favorite are both 3-2 against the number. It would not be a surprise if this contest ended like the last three, with a 3-point outcome.

(315) CLEVELAND at (316) BUFFALOAfter being at home for a month with a trio of contests and a bye, Cleveland stays in Great Lakes region with trip to Buffalo. The Browns will be underdogs and that does not set up well for them with the pooch 0-4 ATS lately and 2-6 ATS since 2004. Buffalo and the home team have covered three of four, just not all aligned. The Under is 4-1 since ‘09.

(317) TENNESSEE at (318) KANSAS CITYTwo very strong patterns in this AFC encounter. The road club has had their way in building 6-1 spread record over the past 16 years. In addition, the defense has NOT ruled with the Over 6-2. After eight matchups of the underdog and favorite each assembling streaks of 4-0 ATS, the dog took the 2014 contest to end on streak. After the Oilers became the Titans, they are 3-4 ATS versus the Chiefs.

(319) JACKSONVILLE at (320) HOUSTONAfter covering four of five, Jacksonville has come up short on the scoreboard and on betting tickets three times in a row. In the last four divisional skirmishes, three times the road/dog combo has cashed, with home/fave taking the other. In reviewing the total, higher scores have prevailed on four of six occasions, generating a 4-3 Over record.

(321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ARIZONAArizona hosts New Orleans for a second straight year, which should be good news for the Redbirds. The reason is the home team is on a 6-0 ATS runoff, with each squad participating three times. Four of the past five in have seen the home team favored and they were spread winners. Not expectedly, no shortage of points and the Over is 5-1 of late.

(323) SAN FRANCISCO at (324) ATLANTASan Francisco in the midst of playing four of five on the road that starts the back end of this sojourn. The 49ers hold a 9-5 ATS edge going back to 1999, when these two were still division rivals and San Fran had way better teams. In more contemporary times, the club catching points is 4-2 ATS and the visitor is 4-1 ATS. In the past eight battles, the total has been halved.

(325) NEW ENGLAND at (326) DENVERDenver was a underdog twice at home to New England and beat them each time on the way to Super Bowl title. Those pair of Broncos upsets have helped carry the home crew to 7-0 ATS and 9-1 versus the spread since 2008 in all games (playoffs included) played. After favorite was sharp 4-0-1 ATS, the dog has captured the bone at 3-0 ATS. The Over is 6-2 recently.

(327) OAKLAND at (328) SAN DIEGOVery important tilt for Oakland trying to win AFC West, with one overwhelming element in play. Pay particular attention as to whom the favorite is on game day, as they are unthinkable 1-14 ATS since 2009. Blended in that mix are two extended stretches for the away outfit, one at 5-0 ATS and the other presently running at 4-0 ATS, with two home

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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(301) LA RAMS AT (302) SEATTLESEATTLE is 20-5 ATS(L25G) - In December( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(319) JACKSONVILLE AT (320) HOUSTONHOUSTON is 15-2-1 ATS(L3Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points( $1280 Profit with a 64.7% ROI )

(327) OAKLAND AT (328) SAN DIEGOOAKLAND is 11-3 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - All Games( $770 Profit with a 50.0% ROI )

52.7% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY ON

64.7% ROI

50.0% ROI

(315) CLEVELAND AT (316) BUFFALOBUFFALO is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) - As favorite( $780 Profit with a 59.1% ROI )

(319) JACKSONVILLE AT (320) HOUSTONHOUSTON is 12-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more than 17.75 yards per point(CS)( $980 Profit with a 63.6% ROI )

(331) CAROLINA AT (332) WASHINGTONCAROLINA is 12-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)( $980 Profit with a 63.6% ROI )

59.1% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

63.6% ROI

63.6% ROI

(303) MIAMI AT (304) NY JETSMIAMI is 2-11 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS AFC-EAST( $880 Profit with a 61.5% ROI )

(315) CLEVELAND AT (316) BUFFALOCLEVELAND is 5-19-1 ATS(L25G) - All Games( $1350 Profit with a 49.1% ROI )

(323) SAN FRANCISCO AT (324) ATLANTAATLANTA is 3-12 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - As favorite( $870 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

61.5% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

49.1% ROI

52.7% ROI

(301) LA RAMS AT (302) SEATTLELA RAMS is 18-7 UNDER(L25G) - All Games( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ROI )

(329) PITTSBURGH AT (330) CINCINNATIPITTSBURGH is 15-4 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games( $1060 Profit with a 50.7% ROI )

(317) TENNESSEE AT (318) KANSAS CITYKANSAS CITY is 17-4 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS)( $1260 Profit with a 54.6% ROI )

37.5% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

50.7% ROI

54.6% ROI

NFL FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS

covers in the middle. The total has gone back and forth in the last six, with an Over earlier this season.

(329) PITTSBURGH at (330) CINCINNATICincinnati backers have had their lunch money stolen more than they have cared to in this bitter AFC North rivalry. The Bengals are bankroll depleting 3-11 SU and ATS the past seven seasons. The away squad has captured four of the last six against the sportsbooks and the underdog 4-4 ATS in the last eight. Lower scores have ruled the day with the Under on a 4-1 move.

DECEMBER 19, 2016(331) CAROLINA at (332) WASHINGTONCarolina has won four in a row over Washington, but that might not be so easy this go round. Panthers backers would enjoy seeing a fourth consecutive spread winner, after the Redskins scalped them for four straight at the pay window. The underdog is sensational 10-2 ATS, however, both setbacks have occurred in last three meetings. The Under has 5-2-1 advantage of late.

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied

schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 LOS ANGELES 38.5 19.0 12.7 15.2 LAR 12.8 302 SEATTLE -15 28.5 -12.4 26.9 23.3 25.2 303 MIAMI -2 22.5 19.8 16.9 19.0 304 NY JETS 38 17.0 0.4 20.9 21.3 NYJ 21.6 NYJ 305 TAMPA BAY 47 25.0 17.6 19.7 20.3 306 DALLAS -7 29.5 -7.0 28.1 25.9 29.8 307 DETROIT 41 24.5 19.5 18.6 21.6 OVER308 NY GIANTS -5 24.5 -2.8 22.7 23.6 26.4 309 PHILADELPHIA 41 22.5 19.8 18.6 19.7 310 BALTIMORE -6 26.0 -6.3 22.3 22.8 22.6 311 GREEN BAY -6.5 25.5 25.6 OVER 24.6 24.1 312 CHICAGO 40.5 20.5 4.8 19.4 19.1 19.8 313 INDIANAPOLIS 44 23.0 19.8 19.9 21.7 314 MINNESOTA -4.5 25.0 -4.5 26.0 24.7 25.7 315 CLEVELAND 42.5 15.5 17.1 OVER 18.0 19.7 OVER316 BUFFALO -10.5 24.0 -11.1 32.4 BUF 27.6 28.9 317 TENNESSEE 42.5 24.5 19.4 18.5 19.5 318 KANSAS CITY -5.5 27.5 -5.5 26.3 24.5 25.1 319 JACKSONVILLE 39 18.0 17.4 18.0 18.7 320 HOUSTON -6 20.5 -5.3 24.4 22.7 21.7 321 NEW ORLEANS 49.5 25.0 22.9 23.0 22.3 322 ARIZONA -2.5 24.5 -2.4 25.6 25.3 26.4 323 SAN FRANCISCO 52 17.0 16.9 20.3 21.5 324 ATLANTA -14 27.5 -13.4 38.0 ATL 34.9 31.7 325 NEW ENGLAND -3 30.5 23.2 22.8 23.7 326 DENVER 44.5 26.0 1.9 20.9 21.7 22.8 327 OAKLAND -3 26.5 26.4 24.8 24.7 328 SAN DIEGO 50.5 24.0 -0.1 26.0 25.0 26.8 SD 329 PITTSBURGH -3 28.5 23.9 23.1 23.7 330 CINCINNATI 44 23.5 2.3 21.3 21.5 22.0 331 CAROLINA 51.5 24.5 22.6 23.5 21.2 UNDER332 WASHINGTON -5 26.0 -4.0 27.8 29.6 25.5

VEGASINSIDER NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


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(301) LA RAMS [SU:4-9 | ATS:4-7-2] AT (302) SEATTLE (-15 | 38.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-6-1]DECEMBER 15, 2016 8:25 PM on NBC - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA RAMS 14.9 16 24-81 [3.4] 35-20-205 [5.9] 19.2 23.4 20 26-110 [4.2] 37-24-230 [6.3] 14.5 -11 -8.5 SEATTLE 21.1 19 25-104 [4.2] 35-23-253 [7.2] 16.9 17.8 20 28-99 [3.5] 35-22-231 [6.6] 18.5 0 +3.3

Though NFL players do not like Thursday games, these teams might not mind this one, trying to put Sunday’s pathetic showings behind them. These NFC West were a combined minus 11 in turnover margin this past Sunday. Both were beaten from the beginning, thus, each will want a quick start. Seattle will have the advantage of being home and Russell Wilson coming off his worst career game and the Seahawks are 10-2 ATS at home revenging a road loss. Starting to look like embattles Rams coach Jeff Fisher (update -Fired) was right, Jared Goff is not ready to be NFL quarterback, especially with very little help. At least Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS recently against the Seahawks.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 16-4 ATS(L5Y) - In December• LA RAMS is 7-25 ATS(L32G) on ROAD - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5

PPG(CS)• LA RAMS is 16-4 UNDER(L5Y) - In December

(303) MIAMI (-2 | 38) [SU:8-5 | ATS:6-5-2] AT (304) NY JETS [SU:4-9 | ATS:5-6-2]DECEMBER 17, 2016 8:25 PM on NFL - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 21.6 17 24-109 [4.5] 30-20-217 [7.2] 15.1 23.2 21 28-134 [4.8] 36-22-234 [6.4] 15.9 +2 -1.6 NY JETS 17.6 18 26-111 [4.3] 35-20-222 [6.4] 18.9 24.9 21 26-102 [4.0] 36-23-253 [7.0] 14.3 -16 -7.3

For Miami, it is joy and disappointment at the same time. The Dolphins are finally are position to make playoffs and lose their field general Ryan Tannehill (unknown time). Backup Matt Moore takes over and he will be in charge of ending Miami’s eight-year playoff drought. Moore has a grand total of 16 passes in the past four years, which suggests if the Dolphins are to win this game and more, it will be a team effort. Favored Miami is 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three outings. The Jets put together come from behind win over San Francisco and would love to dent the Dolphins postseason chances. New York is 1-5 (2-3-1 ATS) at home in 2016.

GAME TRENDS• NY JETS is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)• MIAMI is 1-10 ATS(L3Y) - In December• MIAMI is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)

(305) TAMPA BAY [SU:8-5 | ATS:8-5] AT (306) DALLAS (-7 | 47) [SU:11-2 | ATS:9-4]DECEMBER 18, 2016 8:30 PM on NBC - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 22.5 22 30-105 [3.5] 36-23-250 [6.9] 15.8 22.8 20 26-111 [4.3] 34-21-250 [7.3] 15.8 +6 -0.3 DALLAS 26.2 23 32-152 [4.8] 31-20-233 [7.6] 14.7 18.3 21 21-83 [4.0] 39-27-268 [6.8] 19.2 +2 +7.9

Some people might not believe in momentum, but everyone has to agree ‘confidence’ is an important factor in life. Currently, Tampa Bay has it, which has helped them rattle off five wins in a row. The Buccaneers are playing ‘hungry’ and have generated 14 turnovers in this streak, while committing only five. Credit coach Dirk Koetter for formulating game plans and right amount of attitude, but sticking with the run, averaging over 30 rushes per contest. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus teams allowing 5.65 or more YPP. Has Dak Prescott hit the wall? The rookie Dallas QB has not thrown for more than 190 yards in last three games and his accuracy has significantly tailed off.

GAME TRENDS• TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• DALLAS is 6-18-1 ATS(L25G) - On non-grass field• TAMPA BAY is 9-3 UNDER(L2Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards

per play(CS)

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



8




(307) DETROIT [SU:9-4 | ATS:7-5-1] AT (308) NY GIANTS (-5 | 41) [SU:9-4 | ATS:6-5-2]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 22.7 20 22-84 [3.8] 36-24-252 [7.0] 14.8 20.6 20 23-98 [4.3] 35-26-253 [7.1] 17.0 +4 +2.1 NY GIANTS 19.6 18 23-79 [3.4] 37-23-243 [6.6] 16.4 18.8 19 26-93 [3.6] 41-24-257 [6.3] 18.6 -5 +0.8

Detroit is officially the best-ever come from behind team in NFL history, with eight wins in the fourth quarter when trailing this season. The Lions have two very difficult road games next in quest to win division title and will have to do with Matthew Stafford wearing a glove on passing hard to protect damaged finger. Detroit will have to rely even more on defense which has not surrendered more than 21 points in seven games. The Giants regrouped for Pittsburgh setback with exceptional defensive effort at home against Dallas. New York has become team that plays solid defense and relies on big play offense to win. The G-Men are 25-12 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 16-8-1 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3

yards per point(CS)• DETROIT is 5-14 ATS(L5Y) - In December• DETROIT is 9-2 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - On non-grass field

(309) PHILADELPHIA [SU:5-8 | ATS:5-8] AT (310) BALTIMORE (-6 | 41.5) [SU:7-6 | ATS:6-6-1]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 22.3 21 26-109 [4.2] 38-24-233 [6.1] 15.3 20.9 19 25-101 [4.1] 33-20-243 [7.3] 16.5 +1 +1.4 BALTIMORE 21.5 20 23-86 [3.7] 43-28-262 [6.1] 16.2 18.2 17 22-75 [3.4] 37-23-236 [6.5] 17.1 +7 +3.3

Philadelphia outgained and largely outplayed Washington last week, but never made the right big play and fell to 2-8 SU and ATS since 3-0 start to the season. For the Eagles to upset Baltimore, they have to lock down the details like focus, which helps prevent dropped passes and dumb penalties. Philly is just 1-6 SU and ATS on the road this season. Baltimore’s loss at New England was not complicated, they were out-smarted and out-executed. The Ravens in the past were extremely aggressive. This squad does not play with that same attitude. They settle too often on offense and defensively have problems against stronger competition. Baltimore is just 3-12 ATS at home after playing on Monday Night football.

GAME TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 13-6 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)• PHILADELPHIA is 4-10 ATS(L5Y) - VS OPP with less than 6 days rest• BALTIMORE is 9-3 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75

yards per attempt(CS)

(311) GREEN BAY (-6.5 | 40.5) [SU:7-6 | ATS:7-5-1] AT (312) CHICAGO [SU:3-10 | ATS:6-7]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - SOLDIER FIELD (CHICAGO, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY 25.6 22 23-99 [4.2] 39-25-259 [6.6] 14.0 24.0 20 24-96 [4.0] 34-22-251 [7.5] 14.5 +1 +1.6 CHICAGO 17.0 19 23-101 [4.4] 35-22-243 [6.9] 20.2 22.3 20 28-107 [3.9] 34-22-219 [6.5] 14.6 -7 -5.3

Green Bay closes the season with a trio of division games and can only hope at this point a 10-6 record can get them in the playoffs. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers playing back to elite form and the pass defense is improve dramatically from four-game losing streak, even if the run defense has tailed off with so many linebacker injuries. The Pack loves the Windy City as 20-5 (19-6 ATS) SU record shows. Chicago might not be winning much, however, they are far more competitive and are on 4-0 ATS roll. Matt Barkley is playing like a NFL quarterback and with Alshon Jeffries back, that is on big added offensive weapon. The Bears defense has also been very active in attacking style.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS(L16G) - AT SOLDIER FIELD• CHICAGO is 5-11 ATS(L5Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per

point(CS)• GREEN BAY is 12-4 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than

4.3 yards per carry(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


9


(313) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:6-7 | ATS:6-6-1] AT (314) MINNESOTA (-4.5 | 44) [SU:7-6 | ATS:8-5]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 25.2 22 25-98 [3.9] 37-24-260 [6.9] 14.2 25.6 22 26-115 [4.5] 36-23-262 [7.3] 14.7 -5 -0.4 MINNESOTA 19.8 18 25-73 [3.0] 36-25-230 [6.5] 15.3 17.3 18 24-102 [4.3] 35-21-202 [5.7] 17.6 +12 +2.5

After home loss to Houston, Indianapolis not only has to win out, but requires quite a bit of help to win the AFC South. As we have been harping all year, the defense is too old and lacka speed at all three levels and opposing teams blitz Andrew Luck like madmen, because the O-Line will not hold up. After victory over Jacksonville, the benchmark for a Minnesota is clear. With 25-16 triumph, the Vikings are 6-0 SU and ATS when they crack the 21-point barrier and 1-6 and 2-5 ATS when they do not. Minnesota’s only path to division title is with three consecutive wins and three consecutive Lions losses. However, with the remaining schedule, both are in play.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Non-conference games• INDIANAPOLIS is 3-9 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3

yards per point(CS)• MINNESOTA is 9-1-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per

point(CS)

(315) CLEVELAND [SU:0-13 | ATS:2-11] AT (316) BUFFALO (-10.5 | 42.5) [SU:6-7 | ATS:5-7-1]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - NEW ERA FIELD (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 15.9 18 21-96 [4.7] 36-21-213 [5.9] 19.4 28.8 23 32-146 [4.6] 33-22-251 [7.5] 13.8 -10 -12.9BUFFALO 25.0 20 29-155 [5.4] 29-18-184 [6.3] 13.6 23.2 22 29-126 [4.3] 33-19-230 [7.1] 15.3 +8 +1.8

With the home loss to Cincinnati, it seems like a virtual certainty Cleveland will have historic 0-16 season. The return of Robert Griffin III, improved the run game, but not the passing offense, which figured with first live action in three months. Unless somebody can break a couple of touchdowns runs, hard to imagine the Browns ending futility and 2-11 ATS record. There is nothing wrong with nepotism, as long the results are in place. Last year without Robb Ryan, Buffalo was 16th against the run. With Rex bringing in his brother as defensive coordinator, the Bills are 28th. With Tyrod Taylor nothing more than serviceable backup, time to throw rookie Cardale Jones into the fire and see what happens.

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 8-4 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards

per point(CS)• CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per

play(CS)• BUFFALO is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against weak teams being outscored by opponents by more than

6.0 points per game(CS)

(317) TENNESSEE [SU:7-6 | ATS:5-8] AT (318) KANSAS CITY (-5.5 | 42.5) [SU:10-3 | ATS:7-5-1]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 24.7 20 31-144 [4.7] 31-19-228 [7.4] 15.1 23.5 20 21-87 [4.1] 40-25-275 [6.9] 15.4 +2 +1.2 KANSAS CITY 23.2 19 24-96 [4.0] 35-23-236 [6.8] 14.3 19.6 22 28-123 [4.3] 37-22-251 [6.7] 19.1 +11 +3.6

Marcus Mariota actually had a below average game in win over Denver, yet this was a positive development for Tennessee, finally figuring out others ways to win like with running game (180 yards) and defense. The other intriguing aspect of the Titans, they have taken on personality of head coach Mike Mularkey, with old school saltiness and physical football. Can Tennessee overcome 6-16 ATS road record? There is finding ways to win and then there is Kansas City, who despite 10-3 record, is being outgained by 41 yards per game. This says a lot about the Chiefs finding a winning formula almost weekly and Andy Reid navigating areas of weakness by finding ways to minimize them. Important contest for both teams.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS CITY is 12-4-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)• TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games• KANSAS CITY is 13-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS

10




(319) JACKSONVILLE [SU:2-11 | ATS:5-8] AT (320) HOUSTON (-6 | 38.5) [SU:7-6 | ATS:6-6-1]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 18.5 20 24-100 [4.1] 40-23-233 [5.8] 18.0 26.0 18 29-113 [3.9] 32-21-203 [6.3] 12.2 -17 -7.5 HOUSTON 17.6 19 29-126 [4.3] 35-21-190 [5.4] 18.0 21.1 18 25-106 [4.2] 33-20-213 [6.5] 15.1 -7 -3.5

Houston ended three-game losing streak with gritty performance in triumph at Indianapolis and has two home games next to take care of business. Give credit to Bill O’Brien for understanding Brock Osweiler’s weaknesses and turning game over to Lamar Miller and offensive line, which is likely good strategy against Jacksonville defense. The Texans are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. It is a foregone conclusion Gus Bradley will be out as coach in Jacksonville. One question still remains, can the Jaguars win with Blake Bortles at quarterback? Despite more weapons than he’s ever had, Bortles almost never has consecutive quality drives and offense fizzles. The Jags are 1-10 ATS away off two losses in Games 13-16.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 9-1-1 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• JACKSONVILLE is 5-20 ATS(L25G) - Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.1 yards

per play(CS)• HOUSTON is 10-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per

point(CS)

(321) NEW ORLEANS [SU:5-8 | ATS:7-5-1] AT (322) ARIZONA (-2 | 49.5) [SU:5-7 | ATS:4-9]DECEMBER 18, 2016 4:05 PM on FOX - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 27.5 24 24-104 [4.3] 42-29-314 [7.5] 15.2 27.0 21 26-98 [3.8] 36-23-268 [7.4] 13.6 -5 +0.5 ARIZONA 23.0 23 25-111 [4.3] 41-24-253 [6.1] 15.8 21.3 17 26-97 [3.7] 33-20-202 [6.2] 14.0 0 +1.7

New Orleans loss at Tampa Bay was a microcosm of their season, one step forward, as side step and stumbling backwards. Even Drew Brees is looking his age (38 next month), with a second straight 3-pick, 0-touchdown games. Too bad, as the Saints defense is markedly better than it was early in the season in the last five games, but it is very hard to overcome -9 turnover margin, which New Orleans has posted since Nov. 13th. Arizona overcame a lot to somehow tie Miami, last week, but once again, they fell short. Carson Palmer was never mobile, yet he has no chance with offensive tackles who cannot pass block, it’s that simple. Pride on display in desert for this contest.

GAME TRENDS• ARIZONA is 10-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)• NEW ORLEANS is 31-15-1 OVER(L47G) - 1000 or more travel miles• ARIZONA is 12-3 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)

(323) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:1-12 | ATS:2-10-1] AT (324) ATLANTA (-14 | 52) [SU:8-5 | ATS:8-5]DECEMBER 18, 2016 4:05 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN FRANCISCO 19.3 18 29-137 [4.7] 31-17-177 [5.8] 16.3 30.2 23 35-171 [4.9] 33-21-245 [7.3] 13.8 -3 -10.9ATLANTA 32.9 23 26-107 [4.1] 34-23-296 [8.7] 12.2 26.5 23 23-101 [4.3] 41-27-275 [6.8] 14.2 +8 +6.4

San Francisco for some strange reason was favored for a second week in a row and failed to come through, unable to hold a 17-3 at home against the New York Jets. With injuries mounting, the 49ers travel to Atlanta and even Chip Kelly admitted the playbook is getting smaller with all the injuries. With a 122 yards total yards passing in previous two games, if Atlanta stops Niners run game, where does the offense come from? The Falcons did not even have Julio Jones and laid Los Angeles and will have to be tempted to sit him again this week. Matt Ryan has more than enough offense to handle San Fran, who is on 1-9 ATS December slump.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 9-3-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - OU line of 45 or more• ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5

PPG(CS)• ATLANTA is 10-2 UNDER(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


11


(325) NEW ENGLAND (-3 | 44.5) [SU:11-2 | ATS:10-3] AT (326) DENVER [SU:8-5 | ATS:8-5]DECEMBER 18, 2016 4:25 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ENGLAND 26.8 22 29-116 [4.0] 35-24-280 [8.0] 14.8 17.7 19 23-90 [3.9] 38-24-248 [6.5] 19.1 +3 +9.1 DENVER 22.8 19 26-94 [3.6] 35-22-234 [6.6] 14.4 18.6 19 30-127 [4.2] 35-19-183 [5.3] 16.7 +5 +4.2

With three very difficult games remaining, Denver will have up there level of play just to make the postseason, even with a pair of home games. In losing three of five, the Broncos already anemic 27th rated running game has been even worse in averaging 76.4 YPG. That is a lot to place on Trevor Siemian’s plate as a passer and the defense. The SU winner of Denver games is 13-0 ATS this season. In spite of depleted receiving group, New England is innovative in play-calling (nothing new there), creates big plays with trickery and oh yea, has Tom Brady at quarterback. The Patriots never fail to amaze and can all but wrap up the No.1 seed in the AFC in the Rockies.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.8 yards per

carry(CS)• DENVER is 4-11-1 ATS(L16G) at HOME - Before playing KANSAS CITY• NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)

(327) OAKLAND (-3 | 50.5) [SU:10-3 | ATS:8-5] AT (328) SAN DIEGO [SU:5-8 | ATS:7-6]DECEMBER 18, 2016 4:25 PM on CBS - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 27.5 21 27-116 [4.3] 38-24-264 [6.9] 13.8 24.6 20 26-120 [4.7] 35-21-264 [7.6] 15.6 +15 +2.9 SAN DIEGO 26.9 22 25-98 [3.8] 36-22-263 [7.3] 13.4 26.7 20 25-92 [3.7] 38-23-261 [6.9] 13.2 -5 +0.2

Winning in Kansas City was going to be a tall task for Oakland. The Raiders absolutely have to win next two games to have any shot be surpassing the Chiefs and reclaiming first place in the division. Derek Carr needs more help from his receivers, who lead the NFL in drops. One potentially strong development for Oakland is the defense has forced 11 miscues in past five contests and Philip Rivers has been turnover-machine of late. The Raiders are 11-3 ATS on the road. Rivers has a dozen turnovers in last three games and anything close to that will result in another San Diego defeat. In the Chargers favor is the underdog is on incredible 14-1 ATS roll in this series.

GAME TRENDS• OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - On grass field• SAN DIEGO is 3-10 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - division games• OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per

carry(CS)

(329) PITTSBURGH (-3 | 44) [SU:8-5 | ATS:8-5] AT (330) CINCINNATI [SU:5-7 | ATS:4-8-1]DECEMBER 18, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 24.4 20 25-113 [4.4] 38-24-261 [6.9] 15.3 19.7 19 22-90 [4.2] 37-24-253 [6.9] 17.4 +2 +4.7 CINCINNATI 20.6 22 28-115 [4.1] 36-23-256 [7.1] 18.0 20.7 20 26-119 [4.5] 37-23-238 [6.5] 17.2 +3 -0.1

Maybe this is not the offense so many envisioned after last season, nonetheless, this Pittsburgh offense is every bit as effective and able to control games with running game and passing offense, with defense who does something better with each passing week. Though not in division contention, beating the Steelers at home would be very satisfying to Cincinnati who is 5-21 and 6-19-1 ATS as hosts to their rivals. Knocking off Pittsburgh will not save the Bengals season, yet it keeps hope alive of a winning record which would special, considering they were 2-7-1. This has real chance for old time football, with both rivals trying to establish the run and prevent the other team from doing so.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 14-3-1 ATS(L18G) - AT PAUL BROWN STADIUM• CINCINNATI is 19-7 UNDER(L3Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 12-2 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



12




NFL MATCHUPS(331) CAROLINA [SU:5-8 | ATS:4-8-1] AT (332) WASHINGTON (-5 | 51.5) [SU:7-5 | ATS:9-4]

DECEMBER 19, 2016 8:30 PM on ESPN - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 23.9 20 28-109 [3.9] 35-19-231 [6.7] 14.2 25.9 21 24-90 [3.7] 38-25-272 [7.1] 14.0 -2 -2.0 WASHINGTON 25.4 22 24-109 [4.5] 38-26-303 [7.9] 16.2 24.4 23 25-113 [4.5] 37-25-258 [6.9] 15.2 +1 +1.0

Washington kept playoff hopes alive with come from behind victory at Philadelphia and the Redskins would seem to want retribution for 44-16 spanking they suffered at the hands of Carolina last year. Kirk Cousins is going to be worth Washington has to pay him and this Redskins offense is far more complete than what most realize, even today. The Skins are 7-1 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in consecutive games. After embarrassment in Seattle, the Panthers showed ‘character’ in dismantling San Diego. The defense was all over Rivers and now leads the NFL with 44 sacks. If Cam Newton would be more accurate, these ‘Cats could close strongly. Carolina is 10-2 OVER as a road underdog.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 12-4 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points• WASHINGTON is 1-14 ATS(L15G) at HOME - On Monday• CAROLINA is 14-1 OVER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against decent passing teams averaging more than

6.8 yards per attempt(CS)



13


VI Jim 74-62 (54%) 25-16 (2%)*

VI Jason 73-63 (54%) 24-17 (59%)*

VI Doug 68-68 (50%) 21-22 (49%)*

Power Ratings67-69 (49%)

Effective Strength 56-80 (41%)

Forecaster 59-77 (43%)

Bettors Ratings 75-61 (55%)

Consensus 66-70 (49%)

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (201) TX-SAN ANTONO at (202) NEW MEXICO (-6.5)New

Mexico

New

Mexico

New

Mexico*

New

Mexico

New

Mexico

New

Mexico

New

Mexico

New Mexico

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (201) TX-SAN ANTONO at (202) NEW MEXICO - TOTAL (62.5)UNDER* OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (203) HOUSTON vs. (204) SAN DIEGO ST (+4.5)Houston Houston* Houston Houston Houston Houston San

Diego St

Houston

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (203) HOUSTON vs. (204) SAN DIEGO ST - TOTAL (54.5)OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (209) APPALACHIAN ST vs. (210) TOLEDO (-1)Appalachian

St

Appalachian

St

Toledo* Appalachian

St

Toledo Toledo Toledo Toledo

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - (209) APPALACHIAN ST vs. (210) TOLEDO - TOTAL (57.5)OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Monday, December 19, 2016 - (213) C MICHIGAN vs. (214) TULSA (-11.5)Tulsa* Tulsa* C

Michigan

Tulsa Tulsa C

Michigan

Tulsa Tulsa

Monday, December 19, 2016 - (213) C MICHIGAN vs. (214) TULSA - TOTAL (68.5)UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 - (215) MEMPHIS vs. (216) W KENTUCKY (-5)W

Kentucky*

W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky

Memphis Memphis Memphis Memphis Memphis

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 - (215) MEMPHIS vs. (216) W KENTUCKY - TOTAL (79)OVER UNDER* UNDER* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says…As much as I am not a big fan of betting a team in a bowl game that lost its head coach to another program, as Western Kentucky did, I believe the foundation is set at WKU to carry on the success of the last couple of years without Jeff Brohm. The Hilltoppers have won 22 games the last two seasons while putting up about 45 PPG. This coming despite a QB change after last season from Brandon Doughty to Mike White, with the latter injecting himself into a starring role this season, pitching the ball all over the field to the likes of playmakers Tywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris. They have scored about 14 PPG more on average than their opponents allow, meaning they are headed for 40+ in this one. While I don’t think they will be able to shut down Memphis, I will bet a team I expect can score 40+ anytime. Favorites are on a 18-3 ATS run in CUSA bowl games and have also covered the L7 Memphis bowl games. WKU rolls as the Chalk in Boca Raton.

VI Jason says…Out of the realistic possibilities for a bowl opponent for 6-6 Central Michigan, I’m not sure the Chippewas could have been paired up with a more difficult matchup than they got in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane boast one of the most prolific offenses in college football, scoring 41.4 PPG. They are led by the 8th best ground game in the country, producing 262.4 yards rushing per contest and 5.1 YPR. CMU has struggled historically against good run games, going 8-21 ATS in their L29 against good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75+ YPR. They were outscored by 14.1 PPG in those contests. Tulsa also likes to play very fast, running almost 20 more plays from scrimmage per game than CMU. Recently, MAC bowl teams have lost their six times both outright and against the spread when playing as underdogs of 10-points or more, beat by an average score of 41.7-17.5. In my opinion, only three MAC teams are worthy of bowl game in 2016. Central Michigan is not one of them and gets drilled here.

VI Doug says…The first game of the bowl season starts in New Mexico and it will be one of my favorite plays of all the 42 games on schedule. The Lobos have the top rushing attack in the country at 361 yards per game. However, as opposed to the military schools who rely deception and execution, coach Bob Davie has recruited more in the manner of what Georgia Tech used to bring in and has runners that can fly. Now maybe if this New Mexico squad was facing ACC competition, they would be thwarted in this bowl game, but they are not, rather a .500 UTSA squad that does not have nearly enough speed and permitted 175 or more yards on the ground in half their games this season. Lobos by 17 or more.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

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When it comes to bowl games, the simple fact remains that certain conferences generally match up well with others in certain types of games and line scenarios. Lower level leagues may get more motivation from playing a power conference opponent. On the other hand, they may simply be outmatched. It is not the same in every situation however, and in this annual piece, we like to take a look at each conference, the teams representing it in bowl games, their opponents, and their specific performance trends when it comes to the postseason.

Alabama of the SEC is the reigning national champion, and it has been nearly a decade of dominance by the SEC in college football, and once again, in 2016, that league is atop the country with 12 different bowl bids. With that many teams playing in bowl games over the next few weeks, the league will be continuously on display. That said, there were many experts that felt the Big Ten gave the SEC a run for its money this year in terms of supremacy, and from that league, 10 of the 14 teams will be playing over the next few weeks. The ACC placed 11 teams in bowl games, while rounding out the power conferences, the Big 12 and Pac 12 are represented by just 6 teams each. The lone “Group of 5” team in the New Year’s Six Bowl Games is Western Michigan, undefeated at 13-0 and taking on Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.

The real question to ask as a handicapper is…Do the oddsmakers even consider how conferences fare in their bowl games when setting lines, or is it just same-season analysis used? From our own perspective that we don’t believe anything else goes into oddsmaking than the current year factors. Therefore, it is to our advantage to look at recent history for edges when it comes to matchups by conference. Unfortunately, for our purposes, the massive realignment in college football of late has thrown a bit of a wrench into our analysis. New teams in new conferences, and even new conferences in some cases, has made it a bit more challenging to find relevant angles.

So, let’s take a look at the 2016-17 bowl game outlook for each conference, while providing some top league-by-league betting angles you’ll want to consider as you analyze each game. The first thing you’ll want to make note of is the chart below showing the records for the last five bowl seasons by conference, overall, as favorites, and as underdogs.

ACCThe ACC sent 11 different teams into bowl games in both 2013 & 2014 but regressed to nine last season, although Clemson wound up playing two postseason games while losing the national championship contest. Of those 10 games, ACC teams were just 4-6 SU & ATS, marking the third straight season that the league was sub-.500 in bowl games. Clemson is once again back in the playoffs, the top representative of the 11 teams, although Florida State is also in a high profile game with Michigan in the Orange Bowl. The 11 ACC teams will be matching up against five different conferences with the Big Ten and SEC sharing the distinction of the most common opponent, each scheduled four times. A winning record is plausible in 2016-17, as six of this conference’s teams are favored to win their respective bowl games. They will have to break some recent trends to do it however. Here are some of those key bowl game trends for the ACC that you’ll want to consider for 2016-17:

• Underdogs were 4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS in the ACC’s 10 bowl games last year, and are now on an incredible 18-6 ATS run since the end of the 2013 calendar.

• ACC teams are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their L10 “New Year’s 6” level bowl games after going 3-13 SU prior. In addition to CLEMSON in the Fiesta Bowl playoff semifinal game, FLORIDA ST plays in the Orange Bowl against Michigan.

• All 11 of this year’s bowl games featuring ACC teams will be played between Christmas and New Year’s.

• ACC teams have consistently been solid performing small underdogs in bowl games and boast a record of 26-12-2 ATS in their L40 when underdogs in the +1 to +6.5 range. BOSTON COLLEGE, LOUISVILLE, CLEMSON, NORTH CAROLINA, & FLORIDA ST are in this scenario this year.

• When playing in the small favorite role of minus-6 points or less, ACC teams are on a brutal 9-17 SU & 7-19 ATS run. Count PITTSBURGH, NC STATE, MIAMI FL, & GEORGIA TECH among this group.

• ACC teams are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their L4 versus American Athletic teams, going OVER the total each time while allowing 42.3 PPG. WAKE FOREST faces a difficult such matchup against Temple.

• Underdogs in bowl games between the ACC & Big 12 conferences are on a 6-1 ATS run. West Virginia would be the play against MIAMI FL in that case.

• In bowl games between the ACC & Big Ten, underdogs have been a nearly automatic winning wager, going 11-4 SU & 13-1-1 ATS since ’99. If that trend holds, BOSTON COLLEGE, CLEMSON, and FLORIDA ST would be follow plays while PITTSBURGH would be in a fade situation.

• ACC teams have struggled mightily against Pac 12 teams in bowl games, going 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS since ’07. NORTH CAROLINA is the only one taking on a Pac 12 team this season, Stanford.

CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE TRENDS IN BOWL GAMES


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AMERICAN ATHLETIC The American Athletic Conference started building its own trend base in 2013 with five teams playing in bowl games. They league matched that number in 2014. In each year, the AAC reps won just two games, thus leaving a 4-6 mark after two full seasons of bowl competition. Last year the number of teams representing the conference jumped dramatically to eight, but only two won games, leaving an unimpressive three year bowl record of 6-12 for the AAC. The league’s seven representatives in 2016 will try to improve that number, and with six of the teams favored, clearly oddsmakers are expecting big things this December. However, perhaps the biggest news coming out of the AAC heading into bowl season is that three of its head coaches were poached by bigger programs after successful runs at their respective schools. Houston, Temple, UCF, and South Florida were all affected. Here are some angles you’ll want to consider for the AAC this year, based on our 18 game database.

• In games with pointspreads in the +3 to -3 ranges, in other words expected to be highly competitive, AAC teams have floundered to a 2-9 SU & ATS record. HOUSTON & NAVY could be in trouble in their games.

• As underdogs of more than 3-points, AAC teams have produced a respectable 5-1 ATS record. MEMPHIS hopes to keep that going against Western Kentucky.

• AAC teams are 8-6 ATS in 14 prior games versus power conference schools, but 0-4 SU & ATS against “Group of 5” opponents. HOUSTON, UCF, TULSA, MEMPHIS, & NAVY will try to bust that latter trend in 2016.

• AAC teams are 0-3 SU & ATS in two prior bowl games vs SEC foes, with all three pointspreads being a touchdown or less in favor of the SEC. SOUTH FLORIDA is the first AAC team to be favored over a SEC team in a bowl game, laying 10.5 to South Carolina.

BIG TENFor the third straight season, the Big Ten secured 10 different bowl bids, with Ohio State representing the league as the flagship team in the college football playoff. Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin also received New Year’s Six bids so all in all it was a great regular season for the conference. Now we will see if they can record a definitively winning record in their bowl games for the first time since going 5-2 back in the 200-2-03 bowl season. Only four of the 10 teams are favored to win their games however, so it will be a test for the conference that many experts felt was the best in college football this year. The most common conference opponent for the Big Ten in the next few weeks is the ACC, as there are four such matchups on tap. Here are some other angles you’ll want to remember regarding Big Ten bowl performance. • Big Ten teams were 5-5 ATS in 10 different

bowl games last season, with favorites going 7-3 ATS in those games.

• In “New Year’s Six”-level bowl games, Big

Ten teams have been somewhat successful, going 7-5-1 ATS in the L13. Eight of those games also went UNDER the total. OHIO ST, MICHIGAN, PENN ST, and WISCONSIN are in such games for 2016-17.

• In January bowl games not of the New Year’s Six level, Big Ten teams are 17-7 OVER the total in their L24. IOWA is in the Outback Bowl against Florida on January 2nd.

• Although it is somewhat rarely lately with only one instance since 2007, Big Ten bowl teams have been awful when favored by 5.5-points or more, going just 3-15 ATS since ’96. MICHIGAN & WISCONSIN are both in that situation for 2016-17.

• Underdogs are 13-1-1 ATS in the L15 bowl games between the Big Ten & ACC, a trend against backing NORTHWESTERN in its contest versus Pittsburgh, but fading three others from the Big Ten.

• Big Ten teams are on an 8-2-1 UNDER run the total in bowl games against non-power conferences. Only WISCONSIN, who takes on Western Michigan has such a matchup this year.

• Big Ten teams are on a run of 6-5 SU & 7-4 ATS vs. Pac 12 teams in bowl games. This might not sound like much until you realize they were 4-17-1 ATS prior to that. MINNESOTA, INDIANA, and PENN ST will try to keep that momentum building in 2016.

• Favorites are on a 14-7 ATS run in bowl games between the Big Ten & SEC conferences since 2011. NEBRASKA and IOWA are both underdogs to SEC schools this year.

BIG 12It was another down season for the Big 12 in 2016, one without a team in the playoff and just six teams playing in bowl games. That latter number ties for the fewest since 1997. The six teams will be trying to give the league its first winning record in a bowl season since 2011. Oklahoma takes the biggest prize after winning the league title, a Sugar Bowl bid against Auburn, a game in which they are favored to win. Unfortunately, as of presstime, that was the only bowl game that a Big 12 team was favored to win in. Half of the league’s six games are against SEC schools and you will see a nice trend below highlighting those matchups. Take a look at all of the the conference handicapping angles for Big 12 teams in bowl games:

• New Year’s Six level bowl games have not been good to Big 12 teams over the last 14 years, as representatives are 12-23 SU & 8-26-1 ATS since ’02. That trend doesn’t bode well for OKLAHOMA again.

• In the bowl games between Christmas and New Year’s, bowl game featuring Big 12 teams have been surprisingly low scoring, going UNDER the total at a 24-11 clip. BAYLOR, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS ST, OKLAHOMA ST, & TCU all play bowl games during this time period in 2016.

• Big 12 teams have been horrible in January bowl games, going 19-25 SU & 12-31-1 ATS since ’02. Fortunately, with the way the

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calendar lands, only OKLAHOMA is there as a potential fade opportunity on this trend.

• Since the end of the 2005 bowl season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 7-21 SU & 8-20 ATS as an underdog of 9-points or less. Alternatively, Big 12 dogs catching more than nine points in bowl games are on a 9-4 ATS run. That info would seem to suggest to bet against BAYLOR, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS ST, & OKLAHOMA ST.

• Big 12 teams have fared well in bowl games against ACC teams, 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their L12. Underdogs are 8-3 ATS in those games, both trends perhaps indicating a favorable matchup for WEST VIRGINIA.

• Underdogs have gone 24-13 ATS in 37 bowl game matchups between the Big 12 & Pac 12 since ’95, and the Big 12 is on a run of 12-5 ATS when catching points against the Pac 12. As such, OKLAHOMA ST could be in a good spot against Colorado.

• Domination is an understatement when it comes to bowl matchups between the SEC and Big 12 conferences, as SEC teams boast a 21-5 SU & 20-5-1 ATS record in head-to-head games since ’03. Favorites are 16-4 ATS in the L20 matchups between the two conferences. KANSAS ST, TCU, and OKLAHOMA are all taking on SEC teams in upcoming bowl games, with KANSAS ST being the only underdog. Keep tabs on the TCU-Georgia line however.

CONFERENCE USAConference USA sends a record number of teams to bowl games in 2016, seven of them altogether. With the success this league has enjoyed in bowl play of late, this could be a banner month of December for the league. Three teams are favored with Middle Tennessee State likely to join that group against Hawaii once an official line is established. The five C-USA teams in bowl game last year were 3-2, marking the fifth straight year that this “Group of 5” league achieved a winning mark in bowl season. You will see that there are plenty of good trends to utilize if you want to bet CUSA this bowl season, but be ready early, as the schedule will be completed on December 27th. Two of the matchups are against the AAC and two are against the Mountain West. Conference champ Western Kentucky takes on Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl in perhaps the league’s showcase game. The following trends will indicate what history finds favorable in the various Conference USA bowl matchups for this season:

• Conference USA is now 19-8 SU & 17-9-1 ATS in its L27 bowl games. This seemingly remains an underrated league on the college football landscape. We’ll see if that trend continues in 2016.

• Favorites are on a phenomenal run of 19-2 SU & 18-3 ATS in the L21 CUSA bowl games. All five favorites swept the ledger a year ago. For the record, as of presstime, SOUTHERN MISS, WESTERN KENTUCKY, and OLD DOMINION are certified favorites for 2016, but remember to keep track of the MIDDLE TENNESSEE line before kickoff.

TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO, LOUISIANA TECH, and NORTH TEXAS are dogs.

• As small favorites of a TD or less, CUSA teams are now 21-9-1 ATS since 2001. SOUTHERN MISS, WESTERN KENTUCKY, and OLD DOMINION again fit the bill as we await the MTSU line. Interestingly, they are also 27-10 UNDER the total in that line role since ’99.

• Conference USA teams have also proven reliable in the big bowl underdog role, going 13-7-1 ATS when catching 7-points or more in bowl games since ’00. TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO and NORTH TEXAS were large dogs as of presstime.

• Playing in the small underdog role of less than 7-points has not been kind to CUSA teams, with a record of 5-19 SU & 6-18 ATS since ’01. Only LOUISANA TECH is a potential fade on this trend.

• Posted totals have been very defining in Conference USA bowl games of late, as teams are 20-7 OVER in games with totals higher than 64 since ’98, including nine of the L10. On totals 64 or less, 19 of the L21 have gone UNDER! Betting WKU-Memphis under would not be a wise move regardless of the lofty number.

• Favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the L17 bowl games between C-USA & MAC opponents, and 11 of those 17 games went UNDER the total. OLD DOMINION is favored against Easter Michigan in 2016.

• Bowl games between the Mountain West and Conference USA teams have been remarkably low scoring, with 13 UNDER’s and 2 OVER’s since ’99. TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO and MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE both face Mountain West teams in 2016 bowl games.

• CUSA teams have lost three straight bowl games to Independent teams, scoring just 13.7 PPG. NORTH TEXAS takes on Army this year.

• C-USA/Sun Belt bowl games have trended OVER lately, with seven of the L9 being scored on that side of the total. SOUTHERN MISS takes on LA-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl.

• Defense has been the secret of success for winning Conference USA bowl teams. Those yielding a modest 20 points or less in their bowl contests are 30-5 SU & 28-6-1 ATS since ’97. Amazingly, ALL but two of those 35 games also went UNDER the total.

INDEPENDENTSWith Navy having left for the American Athletic Conference prior to last season, there are once again two Independent teams that received bowl bids, only not the ones you would expect. With no Notre Dame for 2016, it is Army and BYU playing in the postseason. The Independents were 0-2 last year, but with both teams playing as heavy favorites in 2016, they will try to reverse that record this year. Let’s take a look at any angles that might help influence our betting in these teams’ bowl games this December. • Notre Dame is the only Independent to

play in a Big 6 level bowl game ever, but the Irish are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their L7 such


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tries. Needless to say, neither Army nor BYU qualified for these big games.

• In December bowl games, Independent teams are 13-9 SU & 14-8 ATS since ’04. BYU takes on Wyoming on December 21st, and ARMY faces North Texas six days later.

• Against non-power conference opponents, Independents are on a 9-4 SU & ATS run in bowl games. It should be noted that against Mountain West and Conference USA foes, the two opponents for 2016, the record is 8-1 ATS since ’04. The most recent six games also went UNDER the total.

• Alternatively, against power conference schools, these same teams are just 3-15 SU & 4-14 ATS in bowl games since ’97. They haven’t been favored in a game of this nature since ’96, a span of 18 games!

• Independent teams are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite since ’94. Both are favored this year.

MACTo put in bluntly, the last four bowl seasons have not been good for the MACOverall, in that span, the teams have combined for a record of just 7-16. The good news is that for the first time since the 2012 season, a MAC rep grabbed the “Group of 5” spot in the New Year’s Six Bowls, as Western Michigan will be taking on Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl after a perfect 13-0 season. Five other MAC teams are playing in bowl games as the league looks for its first winning bowl record since 2011. It’s still going to be a very tall task as only one team, Toledo, is favored, and three others will be playing as underdogs of more than a touchdown. Two of the opponent are power conference schools. The Sun Belt is the only conference that the MAC has multiple bowl games against. Let’s see what the trends say about the MAC’s chances for bowl success this year.

• MAC teams are on a bowl skid of 7-17 SU & 9-15 ATS overall in the last four seasons. TOLEDO is 2-1 SU & ATS in that span so the rest of the league is just 5-16 SU & 7-14 ATS.

• January bowl games have been a struggle for MAC teams, as they are 4-10 SU & ATS in that month since ’07. Unfortunately, the MAC’s biggest bowl game in years will be played when the calendar turns to 2017 as WESTERN MICHIGAN plays in the Cotton Bowl.

• As favorites, teams from this league have now gone OVER the total in 10 of their L11 bowl games. TOLEDO was favored slightly over Appalachian State at last check.

• As bowl game underdogs, MAC teams have pulled upsets only seven times in their L38 tries while going 11-26-1 ATS. The chances for upsets by CENTRAL MICHIGAN, EASTERN MICHIGAN, OHIO U, MIAMI OHIO, & WESTERN MICHIGAN are long.

• Dating back to ’04, MAC teams are on a 12-game SU bowl losing streak (2-10 ATS) against power conference teams. MIAMI OHIO & WESTERN MICHIGAN will try to snap this winless skid this year.

• MAC bowl teams have lost all six times

both outright and against the spread when playing as underdogs of 10-points or more, beat by an average score of 41.7-17.5. CENTRAL MICHIGAN & MIAMI OHIO could be in for long days against Tulsa & Mississippi State.

• MAC teams had lost 10 straight bowl games against teams from Conference USA (1-9 ATS) prior to Western Michigan’s 45-31 win over Middle Tennessee State last season. Favorites are on a run of 15-2 ATS in bowl games between these two leagues. For 2016, both those trends would seem to indicate to fade EASTERN MICHIGAN against Old Dominon.

• MAC teams have done well in bowl games versus Sun Belt foes, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10. Underdogs are on an 10-3-1 ATS run in bowl games between those two leagues. Based on these trends, OHIO U would be a sound play against Troy, but the trends would contradict for the TOLEDO-Appalachian State clash.

MOUNTAIN WESTWith seven teams playing in 2016, the Mountain West Conference has now had at least seven in three straight seasons, a record for the league. Volume hasn’t translated into success however when it comes to bowl games, and in fact, it has been quite the opposite for this struggling conference. Last year’s teams were 4-4, meaning a 5-year stretch of just 13-18 in the postseason. With four teams playing as favorites this season, there is a good chance the MWC could top its win total of a year ago. However, the main storyline regarding this conference’s bowl games concerns the lofty pointspreads, as five of the seven games show lines of at least a touchdown either way. We’ll see how that plays out and examine whether or not there is any history with this league to suggest playing one way or the other. San Diego State was the champion of the MWC this year and faces Houston in what should be an intriguing Las Vegas Bowl game. Boise State is the only Mountain West rep to be facing a power conference school, that being Baylor in the Cactus Bowl. Here are some trends that could affect your Mountain West bowl game handicapping:

• The pre-Christmas lower-tier bowl games have trended UNDER in recent years for Mountain West teams, 10-3 UNDER since 2013. FIVE MWC teams find themselves in such games in 2016.

• Mountain West teams have thrived in bowl games with the double-digit pointspreads, 14-5 ATS since ‘05. COLORADO ST & AIR FORCE are both heavy favorites for their respective games, and WYOMING is a heavy underdog.

• Mountain West teams have produced big point total games as bowl underdogs, going 22-12 OVER the total since ’03. The games have produced about 62 PPG with MWC teams going 18-16 ATS. SAN DIEGO ST and WYOMING are dogs this year.

• Totals have gone quite the opposite when

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MWC teams are favored, as 25 of 34 games have gone UNDER in this scenario. NEW MEXICO, COLORADO ST, AIR FORCE, and BOISE ST would trend this way for 2016.

• In bowl games with totals of less than 58, or less than the average bowl game total, UNDER’s have been the result in 32 of 49 MWC bowl games. Expect at least two of SAN DIEGO ST, WYOMING, and AIR FORCE to be headed UNDER in their games.

• Mountain West teams have gone UNDER the total in 13 of 15 bowl games versus Conference USA since ’99. Favorites are also on a 9-2 ATS run in that series. NEW MEXICO & HAWAII face CUSA teams in 2016.

PAC 12After placing 10 of the league’s 12 teams in the 2015-16 bowl lineup, a record for the conference, only six teams received bids this season. That said, the teams that are playing are set up well for success, as five of them are favored. Unfortunately, the one that isn’t is in the premier game for the Pac 12, Washington. The Huskies are the biggest underdog in the entire bowl season against Alabama in the playoff semifinals at the Peach Bowl. Last year’s Pac 12 teams combined for a 6-4 SU & ATS record, and sailed OVER the total in eight of the 10 games. USC also is playing in a high profile game, the Rose Bowl, against Big Ten champion Penn State. All of the other teams will be playing in games of the week between Christmas & New Year’s. The most popular conference opponent will again be the Big Ten, as there are three games slated between the two leagues. Highlighted by some key underdog/favorite trends, let’s look at recent bowl game betting angles regarding the Pac 12.

• Amazingly, Pac 12 teams have been favored in all but one of their L34 bowl games. Incidentally, that one underdog spot was a year ago, when Arizona State fell 43-42 to West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog.

• The recent trend regarding Pac 12 bowl games is OVER’s on the total, 17-5 in the L22. Those 22 games produced 66.3 PPG.

• Since the Millenium, Pac 12 teams have been shined their brightest on the big stage, going 14-10 SU & 17-7 ATS in “New Year’s Six” level bowl games. The record is a tick less for January bowl games, 19-8 ATS in L27. WASHINGTON & USC are in top bowl games this year with the latter playing on January 2nd..

• Pac 12 representatives have involved themselves in shootouts in December bowl games, going over the total in 11 of the L14 opportunities, scoring 38.7 PPG in the process. FIVE Pac 12 teams will be in such games in 2016.

• As a bowl game favorite, the Pac 12 Conference is 16-5 OVER in its L21. There are FIVE teams favored in 2016-17. When favored by a TD or more, Pac 12 teams have gone OVER the total in 10 straight games, scoring 41.9 PPG. WASHINGTON ST, UTAH, and USC are all heavy favorites.

• Regarding WASHINGTON’s chances against

Alabama, riding Pac 12 teams as big underdogs has been a sound strategy to employ. As underdogs of 5.5-points or more, Pac 12 teams are on a run of 7-11 SU & 15-3 ATS in bowl games since ’96.

• Pac 12 teams have turned around past bowl struggles versus the ACC with a record of 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS since ’07. STANFORD takes on North Carolina this year.

• The Big 12 has proven a tough matchup for the Pac 12, as the former holds a 15-7 SU & 13-9 ATS edge in head-to-head bowl action since ’05. COLORADO could have its hands full with Oklahoma State this season.

• Pac 12 teams once dominated the Big Ten in bowl games, but since 2010, the teams from the coast are just 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS versus those from the Midwest. WASHINGTON ST, UTAH, and USC all face Big Ten teams.

• Against “Power 5” conferences, Pac 12 teams are on an 13-4 OVER the total surge. ALL SIX Pac 12 teams are in such bowl matchups for 2016-17.

SECIt’s 12 out of 14 SEC teams making it to bowl games in 2016-17, up two from a year ago when the conference posted a 9-2 record in the bowl season. Of course, Alabama played twice, eventually winning the national championship. The Tide try to match that feat this year and according to oddsmakers, have the best chance of any of the four semifinalists to do that. They are a huge favorite against Washington. The rest league isn’t getting anywhere near the same level of respect it has gotten used to though, as half of the 12 teams are actually underdogs or pick em’ spreads. In fact, as a 10.5-point dog to South Florida, South Carolina will be the biggest dog this power league has seen since Auburn in the 2014 national title game. The most common opponents this year are teams from the ACC, and two SEC teams, including the Gamecocks, will be taking on “Group of 5” foes that will of course be hungry to take down powerhouse programs. Alabama gets top billing, but Auburn also landed a New year’s Six bowl bid against Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers and the Gators will be playing in January, otherwise all 100 other SEC teams will be playing between Christmas and New Year’s. Let’s take a look at some key bowl trends regarding SEC teams:

• In non-Big 6 level bowl games is where the SEC really tends to strut its stuff, boasting a record of 19-5 SU & 18-6 ATS since ’13. Favorites have also covered 11 straight SEC bowl games of this type. There are 10 opportunities to back teams in such games this year, all BUT Alabama & Auburn. Five SEC teams are favored in those.

• The SEC’s Big 6 level bowl game resume is less than impressive in recent years, as the teams from this league have gone just 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS in their L15 such games. Be cautious with ALABAMA or AUBURN.

• SEC teams have been remarkably proficient when playing as small favorites in bowl games. As chalk of 3.5-points or less, SEC


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teams are 23-7 SU & 22-7-1 ATS since ’02. LSU, TEXAS A&M, TENNESSEE, & FLORIDA would be prime candidates to back in 2016-17.

• SEC teams have also been a profitable wager as large underdogs of 5.5-point or more in bowl games, going 9-6 SU & 12-3 in their L15. Both ARKANSAS & SOUTH CAROLINA qualify as such this season. For the record, UNDER the total is also 10-4-1 in those games.

• Totals trend UNDER in SEC games typically, but there is a wild trend indicating to play OVER in SEC bowl games on totals of 46.5-51.5 lately. The record of that trend is 24-7 OVER since ’05. These are typically games expected to be lower scoring, and as of presstime, only one team qualified: GEORGIA

• There is a long standing trend of betting on underdogs in bowl games between the SEC & ACC. Teams catching the points in such games are 16-8-1 ATS in the L25. Opportunities are in place to fade LSU, but follow VANDERBILT, ARKANSAS, & KENTUCKY, teams with bowl dates versus ACC foes.

• SEC teams have swept three games versus AAC teams over the L2 seasons, both SU & ATS, winning by 15.3 PPG. For 2016, SOUTH CAROLINA is a huge dog to South Florida.

• SEC teams boast an incredible record of 22-6-1 ATS in bowl games versus Big 12 foes since ’02. TEXAS A&M, GEORGIA, & AUBURN take on Big 12 foes in 2016-17 matchups. Favorites are on a 16-4 ATS run in these games. A&M was the only favorite as of presstime.

• Favorites have also fared well in bowl games between the SEC & Big Ten of late, 17-9 ATS in the L26. TENNESSEE & FLORIDA are all in such matchups this year and are favored. As favorites of 3.5-points or less versus the Big Ten, SEC teams are on 14-4 ATS run.

• SEC teams tend to take care of bowl business against “Group of 5” conference teams, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in the L11. SOUTH CAROLINA & MISSISSIPPI ST both square off against lesser conference foes this year.

SUN BELTThe Sun Belt set a conference record by sending four teams to bowl games in 2015, but they do two better this winter, with six playing in the postseason. Before gushing about the SBC though, we must caution that it doesn’t mean the teams are any better than in previous years. In fact, five of them are underdogs for this season, so matching last year’s victory total of two in the bowl games could still be difficult. South Alabama is playing in its first bowl games ever. Still, while this conference is typically rated as the lowest on the FBS landscape, they certainly have not embarrassed themselves as a whole when it comes to bowl performance. In fact, in their last 22 bowl games, SBC teams actually boast a winning record of 12-10 (11-10-1 ATS)! The six representatives this year will try to maintain that success despite only being favored in one of the games, with Troy playing as a 3.5-point favorite over Ohio U. The aforementioned Jaguars of USA and

Idaho are heavy double-digit dogs in their games while the other games are expected to be competitive. Let’s see from the following angles whether or not wagers on the Sun Belt teams make sense for this season.

• Underdogs are 14-9 SU & 16-6-1 ATS in the L22 bowl games involving Sun Belt teams. ARKANSAS ST, APPALACHIAN ST, LA LAFAYETTE, IDAHO, & S ALABAMA should be plays assuming there are no huge closing line moves prior to kickoff. Fading TROY is the other option.

• Sun Belt teams are on a run of 12-4 OVER the total in pre-Christmas Day bowl games, a trend that would favor OVER’s in all but the S ALABAMA game in 2016.

• Sun Belt teams are on a 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS bowl game skid when favored, but boast a 8-6 SU & 10-4 ATS record in the L14 games as underdogs. If you recall, TROY is favored, but all five others will be underdogs.

• Sun Belt bowl matchups against the Mountain West & Conference USA have gone well (7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS L11). Underdogs also boast an 8-3 ATS record in those games. LA LAFAYETTE, IDAHO & S ALABAMA takes on teams from those leagues as dogs this year.

• SBC teams have struggled against those from the MAC in bowl games, and are just 4-7 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in the L11. Underdogs are 10-3-1 ATS in the L14 of that series as well. TROY would be a fade play against Ohio U on both trends. APPALACHIAN ST takes on a MAC team in Toledo but is an underdog.

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GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL(201) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:6-6 | ATS:6-6] AT (202) NEW MEXICO (-6.5 | 62.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-6]

DECEMBER 17, 2016 2:00 PM on ESPN - UNIVERSITY STADIUM (ALBUQUERQUE, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTSA 29.9 20 40-155 [3.8] 30-17-222 [7.4] 12.6 28.3 21 36-158 [4.4] 33-18-242 [7.2] 14.1 +4 +1.6 NEW MEXICO 37.8 21 53-361 [6.8] 14-8-109 [7.6] 12.4 32.4 19 36-166 [4.6] 26-16-231 [8.7] 12.3 -2 +5.4

After a 1-3 start, UTSA closed 5-5 and earned first-ever bowl bid in six years of existence. The Roadrunners do not overwhelm you with offense, ranked 97th in yards per game and average 29.9 points per game. Defensively they are pretty good against the run, but will have the hands really full trying to contain the nation’s No.1 rushing offense. UTSA is one of two true road teams in the bowls and is 2-4 SU and ATS in that role this year.

New Mexico has one bowl victory in the last 55 years (2007), thus, this is a big deal after sharing division crown with Boise State and Wyoming. The Lobos could have actually been invited to a better bowl , but somehow lost to Rutgers and New Mexico State on the road in September. New Mexico averages 6.7 yards a carry and could run wild in bowl lid-lifter with their option offense.

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 6-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or

more(CS)• NEW MEXICO is 3-7 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2

yards per point(CS)• NEW MEXICO is 9-0 OVER(L10G) - On grass field STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?201 TX-SAN ANTONIO 62.5 34.5 25.5 28.2 26.9 202 NEW MEXICO -6.5 39 -7 33.2 35.9 34.3 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNAs opposed to several bowl matchups, these teams are more familiar with each other despite UTSA’s brief history at this level. These two played a home and home in 2013-14 and both road teams won and covered. The first game was in Albuquerque and the Roadrunners were a 21-13 winner as 3.5-point underdogs and the following year New Mexico stunned UTSA 21-9 as 16-point road underdogs.

BOWL HISTORYThis will be the 11th annual New Mexico Bowl game and the fourth time that the host team is the Lobos. They hosted this game the first two years and then again last December. After falling 45-37 to Arizona in that game, New Mexico is now 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS in the game. This has become a favorite game of Mountain West Conference participants lately, as they are on a 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS run in this bowl series. Only Wyoming in 2011 failed to beat the pointspread in the L9 games. MWC teams have won three straight games both outright & ATS when favored as well, by an average margin of 32.0-10.0. OVER the total has also been a very profitable wager, as last year marked the 7th OVER in the L8 games.


http://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/bios.cfm/hc/288/jim-mack


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LAS VEGAS BOWL(203) HOUSTON (-4 | 54.5) [SU:9-3 | ATS:5-6-1] VS (204) SAN DIEGO ST [SU:10-3 | ATS:6-6-1]

DECEMBER 17, 2016 3:30 PM on ABC - SAM BOYD STADIUM (LAS VEGAS, NV)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 38.0 25 43-157 [3.6] 41-27-302 [7.4] 12.1 22.6 17 34-98 [2.9] 34-19-227 [6.7] 14.4 -3 +15.4 SAN DIEGO ST 35.3 20 46-273 [5.9] 19-11-146 [7.8] 11.9 21.0 17 34-112 [3.3] 32-17-209 [6.6] 15.3 +10 +14.3

From a quality standpoint, best bowl game before Christmas. Houston had some big time wins over Oklahoma and Louisville and stunningly bad defense gaffs in losses to the Navy, SMU and Memphis. QB Greg Ward Jr. is a real dual-threat talent, but the Cougars only averaged 3.6 YPC. On defense, your eyes will be drawn to DT Ed Oliver who is a monster and only a freshman. Motivation could be problem for Houston.

San Diego State was given run as a team that could go unbeaten, but a second strange loss to South Alabama ended that. The Aztecs are a running team (7th nationally), led by RB Donnel Pumphrey, who should reach his second straight 2,000 season. San Diego State runs 3-3-5 defense, but they have shown vulnerability late in the season against both the run and the pass. The Cougars speed could be an issue for the Aztecs.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 6-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per

play(CS)• SAN DIEGO ST is 1-6 ATS(L2Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• HOUSTON is 8-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per

carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?203 HOUSTON -4.5 53.5 31.4 29.7 28.4 204 SAN DIEGO ST 54.5 45.5 8.3 23.7 22.2 25.2 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNNo recent contests between these teams, in what should be very entertaining clash. This year Houston was 3-3 SU and ATS on the road, while San Diego State was 5-2 and 3-4 ATS. In the Cougars last 11 bowl games dating back to 1996, they are 5-6 and 6-5 ATS. This is the Aztecs seventh straight bowl game after an 11-year absence and they are 3-3 SU and ATS.

BOWL HISTORYThe 2016 Las Vegas Bowl game invites two relative newcomers, as Houston has never been in this game, and San Diego State played in it just once, losing 20-13 to North Carolina in 1998, ironically the first year that a line was posted for this bowl series. As luck would have it, that game ended in a push. Since then, favorites have beat the Vegas number nine times, and underdogs eight. That said, the Chalk is on a run of 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the L6. Most often, this bowl game pits a team from the Mountain West against one from the Pac 12. The latter conference has won three straight games and covered the last four. However, this will be the first time a team from Conference USA has hit the field in Sin City’s bowl contest. Mountain West teams are on a 2-6 ATS slide in the games. One interesting note is that bettors have been wrong in pushing the total either way seven of the L9 tries. For 2016, they have invested heavily in the UNDER, driving the total down from 60 at open to 54.5 at last check. Thus, if the trend holds, we would be looking at an OVER result.





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AUTONATION CURE BOWL(207) ARKANSAS ST [SU:7-5 | ATS:6-6] VS (208) UCF (-6 | 49) [SU:6-6 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 17, 2016 5:30 PM on CBSSN - CAMPING WORLD STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARKANSAS ST 27.0 19 40-151 [3.8] 31-18-245 [7.8] 14.7 22.2 19 41-154 [3.8] 31-17-220 [7.0] 16.8 +3 +4.8 UCF 30.1 19 41-152 [3.7] 33-18-210 [6.3] 12.0 24.1 21 45-181 [4.0] 34-18-200 [5.9] 15.8 +3 +6.0

In some ways, the Cure Bowl applies to both participants. Arkansas State is a perennial power in the Sun Belt, but got off to horrible 0-4 SU and ATS start. However, the Red Wolves regrouped and ended up sharing another conference title. The Arkansas State running offense was not up to usual standard, but defense finished strong, closing the season with a +12 turnover margin and Central Florida will give the pigskin away.

After 0-12 campaign, Scott Frost was brought in to turn Central Florida program around and did so with 6-6 season. In looking at the number, pretty remarkable the Knights ended up as well as they, with 107th rated offense. What saved UCF was defense that forced miscues and being 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Whatever offense protects the ball and hits a few big plays will be your Cure Bowl winner.

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35 yards per

point(CS)• UCF is 6-3-1 UNDER(L10G) - VS Non-ranked team• ARKANSAS ST is 8-1-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against solid passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards

per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?207 ARKANSAS ST 49.5 38 20.2 22.7 18.8 208 UCF -6 43.5 -7.5 32.4 UCF 27.7 28.3 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNSun Belt vs. AAC encounter, with both clubs involved in turnarounds. Though Arkansas State split six away contests, they were unsavory 1-5 ATS away from Jonesboro. This is the SBC co-champions sixth consecutive bowl game and they are 2-3 SU and ATS. After an 0-12 season, Central Florida is thrilled to be in a bowl game, even if it is in Orlando. Hard to think of this road game for the Knights, who are 3-4 and 4-3 ATS in the postseason.

BOWL HISTORYThis will be the second annual Cure Bowl game played at the Florida Citrus Bowl, one of three bowl games taking place at the stadium this season. It is as close to a home game as could be for UCF, a school located in Orlando. The Cure Bowl is for a great cause, a celebration of the women who are living with breast cancer today and those who will face it tomorrow. The teams that will be playing represent the American Athletic and Sun Belt Conferences, the only such matchup of those two leagues this bowl season. In last year’s inaugural game, it was San Jose upending Georgia State 27-16, a game that fell far short of the posted total of 56. UCF is just shy of a TD favorite in the game but this is Arkansas State’s sixth straight season ending in a bowl game, and the Red Wolves have won three of their L4 postseason contests.




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RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL(209) APPALACHIAN ST [SU:9-3 | ATS:6-6] VS (210) TOLEDO (-1 | 57.5) [SU:9-3 | ATS:6-5-1]

DECEMBER 17, 2016 5:30 PM on ESPN - CRAMTON BOWL (MONTGOMERY, AL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF APPALACHIAN ST 29.1 22 44-246 [5.6] 25-16-184 [7.3] 14.8 17.0 18 32-126 [3.9] 35-20-200 [5.7] 19.2 +8 +12.1 TOLEDO 38.8 25 40-201 [5.0] 33-23-329 [9.9] 13.7 25.2 19 35-166 [4.7] 32-18-229 [7.2] 15.7 -4 +13.6

Appalachian State makes a second straight appearance in the bowl contest, after second straight 7-1 SBC season, this time being co-champs. The Mountaineers feature stellar ground attack that averages 5.6 yards a carry and can run in or outside. On defense, App. State was 23rd in stopping the run and while pass defensive numbers were good, when matched against a solid passing team, like Toledo, they were beat down the field. The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS on the road.

Toledo ended being better than expected this season, but did not have enough to knock off fantastic Western Michigan squad in season finale. Quarterback Logan Woodside threw for 3,882 yards and 43 touchdowns with only nine interceptions as the Rockets were 8th in the country in passing. Toledo his have problems with opponents who were committed to the run, but are 9-0 ATS against nonconference foes. (Includes 2-0 ATS in bowls)

GAME TRENDS• TOLEDO is 7-0-1 ATS(L2Y) - Non-conference games• APPALACHIAN ST is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35 yards

per carry(CS)• TOLEDO is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per

play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?209 APPALACHIAN ST 57.5 45.5 26.7 27.2 26.2 210 TOLEDO -1 46 -0.5 28.2 28.4 28.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNHaving moved up to FBS football, Appalachian State has been very comfortable from the start in putting together three winning seasons. The Mountaineers were 4-2 and 5-1 ATS away from home and last year won their first-ever bowl game, a 31-29 thriller over Ohio U. as touchdown favorites. Toledo was 4-2 and 3-2-1 ATS outside their backyard and is 5-4 and 4-5 ATS as bowler since 2001.

BOWL HISTORYThe third annual Camellia Bowl will again be played in the Cramton Bowl, the home stadium for the Faulkner University Eagles, as well as the Montgomery area’s four high schools. It is clearly the smallest of the facilities hosting bowl games. This contest will also mark the second straight appearance in this game for Appalachian State, whose university in Boone, NC is some 10 hours away from Mobile, AL. The Mountaineers won a year ago 31-29 over Ohio U but failed to cover the Vegas number as heavy 8.5-point favorites. That was the second ATS win in a row for the team representing the MAC conference in the game. Both prior games also went OVER the total, producing 60 & 61 points. If the current line holds (Toledo -1), it will the mark first time the team from the MAC has been favored in the three installments of the Camellia Bowl.





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R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL(211) SOUTHERN MISS (-4 | 58.5) [SU:6-6 | ATS:3-9] VS (212) LA LAFAYETTE [SU:6-6 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 17, 2016 9:00 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTHERN MISS 33.2 24 43-178 [4.2] 36-22-294 [8.1] 14.2 30.2 14 32-149 [4.7] 24-13-182 [7.5] 11.0 -16 +3.0 LA LAFAYETTE 23.8 19 45-181 [4.0] 27-16-185 [6.9] 15.4 25.1 20 38-126 [3.3] 33-20-242 [7.3] 14.7 0 -1.3

A pair of Deep South schools will do battle in the bayou. Southern Miss was supposed better than 6-6 (3-9 ATS) this season, but with the offense committing 30 turnovers, that placed too much pressure on the defense. The Golden Eagles defense actually was not that bad, holding opponents 45 yards below normal average. The offense is built around QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 2,926 yards and 22 touchdowns in 10 games.

UL-Lafayette had to win last two games to have a chance to go to bowl and did with upset of Arkansas State and mauling rival UL-Monroe. In the betting sense, the Ragin’ Cajuns were more than competitive with 8-4 ATS record. Running back Elijah McGuire gives ULL a chance to milk the clock, to help the 79th rated pass defense, especially in the matchup like this. Wonder about Cajuns interest, playing in same bowl for fifth time in six years.

GAME TRENDS• LA LAFAYETTE is 6-2 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• SOUTHERN MISS is 1-7 ATS(CS) - As favorite• LA LAFAYETTE is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?211 SOUTHERN MISS -4.5 33 SM 29.7 30.8 25.7 UNDER212 LA LAFAYETTE 58.5 33 -0.5 26.4 25.9 26.4 LAL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThough from the same region, these Deep South schools have only connected three times and that was between 2001 to 2008. Southern Miss won and covered each contest as a favorite and each one was an Over. UL-Lafayette has improved since that time and is 4-0 SU and ATS in the New Orleans Bowl. The Golden Eagles were 2-4 SU and ATS outside Hattiesburg this season and played in this same contest four times from 2004-09 and was 3-1 and 2-2 ATS.

BOWL HISTORYFor the sixth year in a row, a team from the state of Louisiana will be represented in the New Orleans Bowl game, and for the fifth time in that span, the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette get the bid. In fact, both schools should be well known to the committee, as both Southern Miss and LA-Lafayette are making their record fifth appearances in this bowl series. The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in their prior four appearances while LAL is a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS. The Cajuns have helped maintain what has been a lengthy run of success by Sun Belt teams in this bowl series, as SBC teams are 8-2 SU & ATS in the L10, including 6-1 ATS in the L7 when playing as the underdog. That said, Louisiana Tech did represent CUSA well last year in a 47-28 win over Arkansas State. Southern Miss opened as a 2-point favorite but has seen backing push that line up to 4.5 since.




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MIAMI BEACH BOWL(213) C MICHIGAN [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7] VS (214) TULSA (-11.5 | 68.5) [SU:9-3 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 19, 2016 2:30 PM on ESPN - MARLINS PARK (MIAMI, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF C MICHIGAN 27.7 20 32-119 [3.7] 35-21-276 [7.9] 14.3 28.2 19 36-162 [4.6] 31-18-215 [6.9] 13.4 -3 -0.5 TULSA 41.4 28 52-262 [5.1] 34-20-260 [7.6] 12.6 31.5 20 42-185 [4.4] 36-20-248 [6.8] 13.7 -3 +9.9

After a sharp 3-0 start, Central Michigan was 3-6 and 2-7 ATS the rest of the way. The Chippewas were done in by turnovers and spotty run defense which could not get off the field too many times and that could spell trouble against Tulsa No.9 nationally rated run offense. The potential equalizer is QB Cooper Rush, who has NFL size and arm and threw for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Chips were meager in red zone production and have to cash here or get swapped.

No more balanced offense in college football than Tulsa, whose sixth-rated total offense ran for 260 YPG and passed for 262 YPG. That makes defending the Golden Hurricane a nightmare and only Ohio State held them under 30 points. CMU’s Rush will have opportunities versus the No. 90 pass defense, who will try and bring pressure to offset weakness. Tulsa is 9-2 ATS in away games after scoring 37 points or more.

GAME TRENDS• C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - Non-conference games• TULSA is 6-2 UNDER(S2000) - In Bowl Games• C MICHIGAN is 7-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?213 C MICHIGAN 68.5 32 23.9 UNDER 26.7 28.1 214 TULSA -11.5 50 -17.8 TLS 39.6 37.5 39.6 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThis will be Central Michigan’s eight bowl appearance since 2006 and they are 3-4 and 4-2-1 ATS. The Chippewas this season were 2-4 SU and ATS when on the road and will face Tulsa for the first time. Tulsa again has an electric offense squad and they were good enough to post a 4-2 ATS away record (3-3 SU). The Golden Hurricane are 6-3 ATS as bowlers since 2006 with five victories.

BOWL HISTORYPerhaps the most exciting of the newer bowl series’ so far, the third annual Miami Beach Bowl game pits Central Michigan against Tulsa. With a hefty 11.5-point spread attached, we can only hope that the 2016 game lives to live up to the standard set by the first two games. Those contests combined for 183 points, easily surpassing the posted totals in both games. This year’s contest boasts a Miami Beach Bowl record posted total of 68.5. Favored teams won & covered both previous games as well, a trend that Tulsa will hope to extend this season. This will be the first American Athletic-MAC matchup however, and the only one of the 2016 bowl season. MAC bowl teams have lost all six times both outright and against the spread when playing as underdogs of 10-points or more, beat by an average score of 41.7-17.5.





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BOCA RATON BOWL(215) MEMPHIS [SU:8-4 | ATS:5-7] VS (216) W KENTUCKY (-5 | 79) [SU:10-3 | ATS:6-6-1]

DECEMBER 20, 2016 7:00 PM on ESPN - FAU FOOTBALL STADIUM (BOCCA RATON, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MEMPHIS 39.5 23 38-168 [4.4] 36-23-295 [8.2] 11.7 27.0 23 40-200 [5.0] 39-24-242 [6.3] 16.4 +10 +12.5 W KENTUCKY 45.1 24 34-181 [5.3] 34-22-337 [9.9] 11.5 24.1 19 33-99 [3.0] 39-23-268 [6.9] 15.2 0 +21.0

Bring the beer and chips when you sit down, because a trip to the kitchen could mean missing two scores. Both teams average better than 39 points a game and have passing offenses which are Top 20 in yardage. (Memphis - 20th, WKU - 4th) One cannot overlook the pass defenses either, with the Tigers 81st and the Hilltoppers 110th. Get ready for a four hour contest!

The key elements are the quarterbacks and defenses. Both Mike White for WKU and Riley Ferguson had to replace top flight signal callers from a year ago. Each has better than expected years, but were not above making mistakes. Western Kentucky has the better defense because they stop the run (99.1 YPG) and where this bowl could turn is on negative plays and generating turnovers, with both doing so. The Hilltoppers lost head coach and Memphis certainly has backdoor potential and more team speed.

GAME TRENDS• W KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)• MEMPHIS is 2-6 ATS(CS) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(CS)• W KENTUCKY is 9-1 OVER(L10G) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?215 MEMPHIS 79 50 34.5 UNDER 35.6 UNDER 36.5 216 W KENTUCKY -5 51.5 -1.3 37.0 36.5 38.8 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNWestern Kentucky are the C-USA champs in back to back years and was 4-2 and 2-3-1 ATS away from home this year. The Hilltoppers have only been playing FBS football since 2008 and are 2-1 and 1-2 ATS in the postseason, including unbelievable Bahamas Bowl in which they did not cover a 35-point lead in the 4th quarter as three-point favorites. This is Memphis’ third straight bowl game and the Tigers are 3-4 SU and ATS since 2003.

BOWL HISTORYThe Boca Raton Bowl was introduced as a new series in 2014, the same season as the Miami Beach Bowl. Ironically, the first two winners of that latter bowl series will meet in the third annual Boca Raton Bowl in 2016. The game boasts the designation as the highest total bowl game of the season, with Memphis and Western Kentucky expected to put up 79 points or so. That total has bounced up since opening at 77, and just a note on that, bettors have pegged both previous Boca Raton Bowl games accurately when moving the totals. WKU will go at this game without head coach Jeff Brohm, the architect of the country’s second highest scoring offense. He has left for Purdue. DC Nick Holt will handle the bowl game on an interim basis. Favorites are 7-0 ATS in Memphis’ L7 bowl games, and WKU was laying about 5 as of presstime.




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For line moves we continue to track the NFL and now also turn our attention to the college football bowl games. Make sure to review all the latest line adjustments, as we continue our best-ever season at Vegas Insider.

NFL – Thursday - (301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLE 8:25 ET NBCLos Angeles surrendered 42 points to Atlanta, but only allowed 286 yards to the Falcons, who has two defensive scores and took advantage of five turnovers. With this in mind and how these NFC West rivals usually play, the total has headed south from 40.5 to 38 points. What the new Rams interim coach can do to shake up the offense is a guess and you know the Seattle defense was humbled at Green Bay. L.A. is 7-0 UNDER off a loss by 21 or more. VIFW Take – Lean Under

BOWLS – New Mexico - (201) UTSA at (202) NEW MEXICO 2:00 ET ESPNIn the bowl opener, those betting football have sent the total downward from 64 to 62. Though the make-ups of each team is different from the two meetings they had in 2013 and 2014, both contests were UNDER’s by more than 20 points. New Mexico is likely to score and is 10-2 OVER this season, but will the UTSA be able to keep pace? VIFW Take – Lean Under

BOWLS – Las Vegas - (203) HOUSTON vs. (204) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:30 ET ABCWith average score of Houston game approximately 60 points and San Diego State’s at 56, the total drifting from 58 to 54.5 would seem to favor the Aztecs. Yet, when breaking the teams down, San Diego State might be 10th nationally in rushing, which is their main strength, the Cougars are 3rd in the country stopping the run. Does this all lead to a defensive struggle or will Houston offense generate big plays? VIFW Take – Lean Under

BOWLS – Camellia - (209) APPALACHIAN STATE vs. (210) TOLEDO 5:30 ET ESPN After two opening bowl totals going down, we have one on the rise. The Camellia Bowl total is up 56 to 57.5. Though Appalachian State only allowed 200 yards passing per game, the SBC had few quality quarterbacks. Against Akron and Miami-Fl, the Mountaineers allowed over 350 YPG passing and Toledo is 9th in passing yards. This is why higher score makes sense. VIFW Take – Play Over

BOWLS – New Orleans - (203) SOUTHERN MISS vs. (204) UL-LAFAYETTE 9:00 ET ESPN (side and total)In this Deep South showdown, the money is on Southern Miss, up from -2 to -4, who is coming from a stronger conference and has more overall team speed. Again, based on line move, the Golden Eagles have the better offense and at least by the numbers a weaker

defense and the total has climbed from 57 to 58.5. When these teams had a closing total in the 50’s this season, they are a combined 7-2 UNDER. VIFW Take – Play Under

NFL - (307) DETROIT at (308) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOXWith the Giants defense coming off awesome performance and permitting just 18.8 PPG and Detroit coming up big on defense all season in conceding 20.6 PPG, the total has tumbled from 44 to 41 points. The New York offense is part of the lower total, coming in a paltry 19.6 PPG. There are concerns also about Matthew Stafford having to wear glove with bad finger on throwing hand, which likely will affect accuracy and velocity. Both teams have strong UNDER tendencies. VIFW Take - Lean Under

NFL – (311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX ESPN (side and total)With Green Bay 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS at Soldier Field in the last 23 years (includes playoffs) and having the better team again this year, the Packers shot up from -5 to -6.5. Also, with both these bitter rivals playing better defense in recent games, the total has slipped from 44. to 42.5. Green Bay would appear to be the play on 3-0 SU and ATS run, but Chicago is playing their best football and is on 4-0 ATS move presently. VIFW Take – Leans on Green Bay and Under

NFL – (319) JACKSONVILLE at (320) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBSHouston took major step towards winning second straight AFC South crown with win at Indianapolis and has to win next two home games before trip to Tennessee. Football bettors are forecasting lower score and dumped the total from 41 to 38.5. This makes perfect sense, the only issue is Jacksonville turnovers that can be quickly converted to points. The Jags are 10-2 OVER after playing at home. VIFW Take – Lean Over

CFB – Boca Raton - (215) MEMPHIS vs. (216) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:00 ET ESPNGet ready for points, and lots of them according to all parties. Oddsmakers set this total at 77, which was the highest of the 41 bowl games released and the betting public took that to 79. This could well be a contest in which both teams break 40-point barrier, however, Memphis averages 56.6 PPG on the road and Western Kentucky is at 69.7 PPG. The OVER should be right, just sayin’! VIFW Take – Lean Under

RecordsCollege Best Bets– 20-15College Leans - 43-26-2

NFL Best Bets - 16-12NFL Leans - 21-12

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

weekly football tip sheet · 2016-12-20 · 2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION AUGUST...

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Transcript of weekly football tip sheet · 2016-12-20 · 2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION AUGUST...