Weekly Cat Report June 5, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Damaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

Page

Tropical Storm Amanda Central America 27+ 3,400+ 200+ million 3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Central America/Mexico 1+ Unknown Unknown 3

Tropical Storm Nisarga India 6+ Thousands Millions 7

Severe Weather United States 3+ Thousands Millions 9

Landslide Ethiopia 10+ Unknown Unknown 13

Flooding Oman 3+ Hundreds Unknown 13

Severe Weather United States 0 Hundreds Millions 13

Flooding India 31+ Unknown Unknown 13

Flooding Yemen 16+ Hundreds Unknown 13

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Tropical Storms Amanda and Cristobal affect Americas Tropical Storm Amanda (the first named storm of the season in Eastern Pacific) and Cristobal, which formed from Amanda’s remnants in Bay of Campeche, caused significant damage in several countries of Central and Northern America. There were at least 27 fatalities. Days of heavy rainfall associated with these storms created life-threatening flooding as rainfall totals reached 250 to 500 millimeters (10 to 20 inches), with locally higher amounts.

Meteorological Recap

Tropical Storm Amanda

On May 30, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Two-E, which formed from an organizing area of low pressure located about 110 miles (180 km) south of the Guatemala and El Salvador coastlines. The tropical depression slowly progressed north-northeastward prompting the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for their entire coastline. Tropical Storm Amanda, the first named storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific, was officially recognized at 4:00 AM CDT (9:00 UTC) on May 31, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars, hours before making landfall in southeastern Guatemala at around 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC).

After landfall, the circulation of Amanda rapidly weakened due to the higher terrain of Guatemala, while being steered north then northwestward by a larger Central American gyre. The main hazards associated with Amanda were locally heavy rainfall and flooding, which was most impactful in El Salvador, Guatemala, western Honduras and the Mexican States of Tabasco and Veracruz, where 250 to 380 millimeters (10 to 15 inches) of rainfall were measured, with locally higher amounts.

Stations that recorded the highest rainfall in El Salvador, as provided by the Ministry of Environment:

Station Department Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (inch)

Nuevo Cuscatlán La Libertad 327 12.9

El Piro San Slavador 315 12.4

Ishuatán Sonsonate 297 11.7

Panchimalco San Salvador 292 11.5

Comasagua La Libertad 285 11.2

Izalco Sonsonate 280 11.0

Tropical Storm Cristobal

By June 1 the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, located over the Yucatan Peninsula in eastern Mexico, were continuing northwestward into the southeast Bay of Campeche where environmental conditions were favorable for additional development. At 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) Tropical Depression

Amanda shortly after landfall in Guatemala (Source: NOAA)

Weekly Cat Report 4

Three formed in the Bay of Campeche. The tropical depression, influenced by an amplifying ridge to the west, and the circulation of the larger Central American gyre, continued to slowly meander west-southwestward. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Mexican Coast from Campeche to Veracruz. The slow movement along with a broad area of precipitation associated with this storm continued the significant flooding threat for the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz extending to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Guatemala. Intensification continued as a result of warm waters and relatively low wind shear. At 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC) on June 2 the storm was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). June 2 is the earliest date for an Atlantic 3rd ‘C’ named storm formation in the satellite era (1965-present).

Most Active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons:

Season ACE First Named Storm First Hurricane First Major Hurricane

1933 258.6 May 14 June 27 August 18

2005 245.3 June 09 July 06 July 07

1893 231.1 June 12 June 17 August 16

1926 229.6 July 22 July 23 July 25

1995 227.1 June 03 June 04 August 12

2004 226.9 August 01 August 03 August 05

2017 224.9 April 20 August 09 August 25

1950 211.3 August 12 August 21 August 31

1961 188.9 July 18 July 20 September 05

1887 181.3 May 15 July 21 August 19

2020 ? May 17 ? ?

At 8:35 AM CDT (13:35 UTC) on June 3 Tropical Storm Cristóbal made landfall near Atasta, Mexico west of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche with maximum winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 994 millibars. Once inland, Cristobal gradually weakened while moving south-southeast at 3 mph (6 kph). Despite a weakening trend, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding were still ongoing, particularly in the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatán. According to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico a 24-hour rainfall total of 328.9 millimeters (12.9 inches) ending the morning of June 3 was recorded in El Carmen, Campeche.

Weekly Cat Report 5

Tropical Storms Amanda and Cristobal were not the only systems to cause significant damage across portions of Central America in recent years. In 2017, the broad area of low pressure associated with a larger gyre, which was a pre-cursor to Hurricane Nate, led to a multi-day flooding event for south and western Central America. Costa Rica was among the hardest hit, with numerous locations receiving at least 10 inches (254 millimeters) of rain, resulting in 14 causalities, and ranking as the costliest natural disaster in the countries recorded history.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continued a gradual southeast trajectory throughout the morning of June 4, with winds of 40 mph (65 kph), before weakening to a tropical depression. According to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico a 24-hour rainfall total of 267.5 millimeters (10.1 inches) ending the morning of June 4 was recorded in Ocotepec, Chiapas, with a 7-day total of 711.6 millimeters (28.0 inches).

Southerly flow around a building ridge in the western Atlantic eventually allowed Cristobal to meander toward the east, before an anticipated turn back in the direction of Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico, where additional redevelopment is possible in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Cristobal during landfall in Mexico (Source: NOAA)

7-day total accumulated precipitation for Mexico (May 28-June 3), millimeters

Weekly Cat Report 6

Event Details At least 20 people were killed in El Salvador as a result of flooding, landslides and strong winds following Amanda’s impact, while six were still missing at the time of this writing. According to a preliminary official assessment, 2,600 homes were damaged in central and western parts of the country and nearly 11,200 people were evacuated in shelters; the event affected a total of nearly 25,000 families to some extent. In the municipality of San Salvador alone, seven people were killed and at least 50 homes destroyed. Among the worst affected departments were Santa Ana, La Paz, Ahuchapán, Sonsonate, La Libertad and San Salvador. Infrastructural impacts included damage to 154 road sections, of which 83 became completely obstructed by washouts or landslides.

Landslides, mudslides and flooding also affected parts of Guatemala. According to the official data from the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED), 747 homes sustained light, 109 moderate and 24 severe damage. Further effects were noted on infrastructure, as 43 road sections were damaged, along with three bridges. The storm affected a total of nearly 306,000 people in the country to some extent, while 10,40 were evacuated. There were two fatalities and two injuries reported by the authorities.

Impact of Amanda in Honduras was relatively minor. Heavy rainfall caused several rivers in the southern and western regions to overflow, including Goascorán. Preliminary reports suggested at least 100 flooded homes. There were at four fatalities in Honduras.

In Mexico, the systems’ slow movement along with rising flood waters led to flooding in the states of Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Tabasco and Campeche. Evacuation of residents across nine municipalities in the southeast occurred, including 138 people in Campeche. Military troops were deployed to some of the most affected regions to help with relief and recovery efforts. As of this writing, at least one death had been reported and damage assessments were being conducted. Roadways and homes were inundated across portions of Chiapas, Campeche, and Yucatán. Landslides have occurred throughout several cities.

Financial Loss Governmental officials in El Salvador tentatively estimates economic losses from Amanda at USD200 million, however, this total will be updated as assessments are conducted in the coming weeks. Furthermore, multiple settlements became inaccessible due to roads being cut by landslides and washouts, thus hindering rescue operations and damage assessment.

Source: Civil Protection, El Salvador

Weekly Cat Report 7

Cyclonic Storm Nisarga makes India landfall Cyclonic Storm Nisarga was the second named tropical storm of the 2020 Indian Ocean cyclone season. It became the first-ever cyclonic storm on India Meteorological Department’s record to make landfall in Maharashtra, India in June. At its peak, the JTWC highlighted that the storm had 120 kph (75 mph) winds (1-minute sustained average) – equal to a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After coming ashore, Nisarga has left at least 6 people dead and caused widespread wind- and flood-related damage in its wake. Total economic losses were expected to be in the millions (USD); likely higher. Given low insurance penetration, majority of damage was expected to be uninsured.

Meteorological Recap A well-marked low-pressure system started to form over southeastern Arabian Sea on May 31. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began watching an organized convection in the southern Bay of Bengal on June 1, when it had achieved an intensity equivalent to a tropical depression and it was located 630 kilometers (390 miles) south-southwest of Mumbai during early morning hours. The system continued to track north through a highly favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment and rapidly intensified into a deep depression on June 1 at 18:00 UTC. The system better organized and turned into a cyclonic storm with dense, deep, and symmetrically aligned central convection on June 2 at 12:00 UTC.

The system continued to strengthen and during one 24-hour stretch ending on June 3 at 06:00 UTC, the system further intensified by 85 kph (50 mph) to an initial peak intensity of 120 kph (75 mph); Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and became Tropical Cyclone Nisarga. At this point, Cyclone Nisarga was located approximately 225 kilometers (140 miles) west-southwest of Mumbai, India and continued to track northeast. According to the JTWC, hurricane force winds extended up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the center while cyclonic-storm force winds extended to 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the center of the storm. Nisarga made landfall at approximately 12:30 PM local time (07:00 UTC) with estimated 1-minute average sustained winds of 120 kph (75 mph) south of Alibag in Raigad district of Maharashtra. This was an equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane according to the JTWC while India Meteorological department assess the peak intensity of Nisarga as a Severe Cyclonic Storm. It then moved over in Maharashtra, weakened into a Cyclonic Storm and later a depression while moving towards Vidarbha in Maharashtra.

Event Details Cyclonic Storm Nisarga caused flooding and wind-related damage in the five districts – Raigad, Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, and Pune of Maharashtra, while minor damage was reported from the neighboring states of Goa and Gujrat. A total of 100,000 people from coastal low-lying areas of Maharashtra and Gujrat were pre-emptively evacuated owing to preparedness measures to the Cyclonic Storm Nisarga. According to initial reports by national disaster management officials, Nisarga wreaked havoc in the severely affected

Nisarga at landfall (Source: CIRA, CSU)

Weekly Cat Report 8

districts of Maharashtra. At least 6 deaths were reported at the time of this writing and more than 50 people were injured.

Strong winds gusting up to 130 kph (80 mph) were recorded in the Alibag area. Also noted were the storm surges of 1.5 to 2.5 meters (5 to 6 feet) along the western coastal areas of Ratnagiri and Raigad districts, resulting in inundation of several villages. Multiple structures had their roofs destroyed and walls collapsed; while some structures were destroyed completely. Communication in large areas was knocked out affecting nearly 2.5 million residents, as the electrical infrastructure was severely damaged or destroyed in the affected areas.

Nisarga battered Khed, Maval Mulshi, Junnar and Ambegaon tehsils of Pune district, triggering intense rain spells and strong winds till late night, resulting in inundation of low lying areas. Initial damage reports suggest, at least 150 homes in the Pune district were severely damaged or destroyed. Damages to the electrical, mobile and internet related infrastructure were also reported.

The storm uprooted trees falling on the railway track and roads, resulting in blockade in the Mumbai metropolitan area – also known as economic capital of India. Nearly 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rainfall in resulted in heavy water logging in several areas of Mumbai, resulting in disruption and diversion of vehicular traffic. National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF) had started the restoration work and electricity in most of the parts were restored, though the rescue and relocation efforts were severely hampered by the prevailing emergency due to COVID-19. Damage assessments are still in their preliminary stages.

Financial Loss Nisarga became the second strongest Cyclonic storm to make a landfall near Mumbai; The Great Bombay Cyclone of 1882 is ranked the strongest storm that lashed Mumbai (then known as Bombay) with strong winds of 175 kph (110 mph) and storm surge of up to 6 meters (19 feet) in height, and claimed more than 100,000 lives, according to a few available reports and some journal articles (Note: existence of this storm is sometimes contested). Nisarga became the second Cyclonic Strom originating in the Indian Ocean in the year 2020; however, when contrasted with the first one – Amphan, which wreaked havoc in the eastern coast of India and Bangladesh, Nisarga was relatively mild and less destructive in nature. Most of the severe damage was averted as the storm made landfall 100 kilometers south of the Mumbai city in Maharashtra. Given the initial damage estimates in Maharashtra – especially in the Pune and Mumbai metropolitan areas – the economic cost was likely to be well into the millions (USD). The initial reports via government cited that total damage in Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg districts of Maharashtra was to approach USD662 million (INR50 billion). However, economic losses were projected to be minimal in Gujrat and Goa.

Source: National Disaster Management AgencyFlooding in Mumbai (Source: Times of India)

Weekly Cat Report 9

Severe weather, damaging winds impact the U.S. A multi-day severe weather outbreak occurred across portions of the United States from the Central and Northern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coastline between June 2-4. The severe weather was initiated as flow around a building eastward advancing high pressure ridge interacted with a stalled frontal boundary and a disturbance traversing through southern Canada. Severe and damaging straight line winds along with large hailstones were the main hazards with these events. On June 3, a notable derecho event tracked across central and southeastern Pennsylvania and through New Jersey, producing straight-line winds of 80 mph (128 kph) and greater, resulting in at least 3 fatalities. A derecho is defined as a fast-moving cluster of thunderstorms that travels hundreds of miles and is marked by widespread straight-line wind damage.

Meteorological Recap

June 2

Flow around a broad ridge of high pressure building over the central U.S. allowed a plume of unseasonably warm and moist air to expand northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains as well as the Midwest. Meanwhile, a southwestward extending quasi-stationary frontal boundary associated with a low-pressure system passing north of Lake Superior was the primary focus for the severe weather outbreak on June 2. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicated an axis spanning the southern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin into lower Michigan for an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather. A broader Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) extended from eastern Nebraska and South Dakota eastward into northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. A shortwave trough traversing east-southeast from southern Canada along with steep low and mid-level lapse rates (changes in temperature with height) provided additional support for the development of severe thunderstorms.

Storm cells initially became severe in southern Minnesota in the early evening and organized into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they advanced eastward overnight. The main hazards associated with this event were severe straight-line winds with gusts exceeding 70 mph (112 kph) in addition to large and damaging hail surpassing 2.0 inches (5.1 centimeters) in diameter. The greatest impacts occurred in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York and Nebraska.

Weather Prediction Ce

Rain/Thunderstorms

Rain

Severe Thunderstorms Possible

Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding PossibleWeather Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 10

June 3

On June 3, the southward sinking frontal boundary responsible for the previous day’s activity, along with a series of embedded shortwave troughs aided in creating a widespread risk for severe weather from the Central Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley continuing east through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. In the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough accompanied by increasing surface temperatures, the SPC highlighted a region in the Northeast, across central and eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, including Philadelphia, for an Enhanced Risk for severe weather (level 3 out of 5). In the morning hours, the lingering showers and storms associated with the MCS from June 2 strengthened into a derecho, bringing numerous reports of damaging straight-line winds exceeding 80 mph (128 kph) from central Pennsylvania all the way to the Jersey shore.

The National Weather Service (NWS) warned of an ‘extremely dangerous situation’ as these storms headed toward southeastern Pennsylvania and the Philadelphia metro region. After the passage of the derecho, increasing instability and clearing conditions accompanied by a short-wave disturbance ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, led to a second round of severe weather for eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. To the west, severe storms initiated adjacent to the frontal boundary across the northern Ohio River Valley and into Illinois, as well as portions of central Nebraska. Overnight, severe storms moving east-southeast through Nebraska and Kansas collided with a back building MCS across eastern Missouri, creating a locally heavy rainfall event. Severe weather reports were noted in multiple states, with the greatest impacts in Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Severe storms were observed again on June 4 along the quasi-stationary frontal boundary, in addition to development ahead of a cold front in the Northern Plains and Midwest.

Weather Prediction Center

Rain/Thunderstorms

Rain

Severe Thunderstorms Possible

Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding PossibleWeather Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 11

June 4

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary persisting across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast was again a focal point for severe weather on June 4. This included severe storms across central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as portions of Maryland and eastern Virginia that began in the early evening as disorganized cells, some of which displayed supercellular characteristics. The storms later evolved into an eastward propagating linear structure which produced reports of strong winds as it approached the coast. Elsewhere, in the Northern Plains, the SPC upgraded a region in western and central South Dakota to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather where the environment was conducive for long track supercells capable of strong winds and large hail. A supercell passing through Meade and Pennington Counties (South Dakota), including the Rapid City metro region, had a history of producing significant hailstones. A report of hail exceeding 3.0 inches (7.6 centimeters) occurred in Pennington County, along with reports of 2.0 to 2.5-inch (5.1 to 6.4-centimeter) hailstones near Rapid City.

Event Details

June 2

There were 176 reports of severe weather on June 2, of which 115 were for wind, and 52 for hail. Significant hail (greater than or equal to 2.0 inches) were observed in Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Hailstones approaching 2.5 inches (6.4 centimeters) fell in Blue Earth County (Minnesota), while 2.75-inch (7.0-centimeter) hail, baseball sized, was recorded in Hayes and Hitchcock Counties (Nebraska). Winds in excess of 70 mph (112 kph) were measured in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where a ship in Lake Michigan recorded a gust of 75 mph (120 kph). These storms resulted in damage to vehicles and roofs, as well as numerous reports of downed trees.

June 3

In Pennsylvania, falling trees from the mornings derecho event led to at least 3 fatalities. In its wake, at least 550,000 customers in Pennsylvanian and New Jersey were without power. A wind gust of 83 mph (134 kph) was measured in Berks County (Pennsylvania), and a 93 mph (150 kph) gust was measured in Ocean County (New Jersey). The storms resulted in numerous reports of downed trees and power poles,

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causing damage to vehicles along with exterior and roofing damage to multiple structures. Further west, in Nebraska, hail approaching 2.00 inches (5.1 centimeters) were reported in Cherry County, and a wind gust of 79 mph (127 kph) was measured in York County. Severe straight-line winds approaching 70 mph (112 kph) were recorded in portions of Missouri, along with minor structural damage. As of this writing, 312 reports of severe weather occurred, of which 268 were for wind, and 44 for hail.

Financial Loss Total aggregate economic and insured losses during the period from June 2-4 are expected to reach well into the millions (USD). Most of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance. As of this writing, damage assessments are still ongoing.

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Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Landslide (Ethiopia) At least 10 people were killed by a landslide in the Gamo Zone in SNNPR region of southern Ethiopia on May 28. According to local media reports, the event was triggered by heavy rainfall. Death toll was considered preliminary as rescue operations were not completed according to the latest information.

Flooding (Oman) A tropical depression in the western Arabian Sea affected parts of Oman on May 27–31, causing strong winds and torrential rains in the coastal areas. Salalah – the capital city of southern Oman's Dhofar province was worst hit during the event. According to the National Center for Multi Hazards Early Warning Centre, tropical depression with an estimated surface wind speed of 35 kph (20 mph) was located over the coastal areas of Dhofar governorate on May 29, which later moved towards the central Salalah, causing flood- and wind-related damage. Department of Meteorology Oman reported that Mirbat, in Dhofar province, recorded 1,055 millimeters (41.5 inches) of rain, while Sadah and Salalah recorded 262 (10.3) and 202 (8) millimeters (inches) of rainfall, respectively between May 28–June 1, resulting in widespread inundation in these cities. The event triggered floods resulting in damage of property and infrastructure and traffic disruptions. Power outages were reported from the worst-hit areas in central Salalah. No fewer than three people have died in the event. Although not specified yet, damage was also reported from regions adjacent to the city of Salalah. Economic losses were yet to be determined.

Severe Weather (United States) A potent low-pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest initiated an uncommon severe weather outbreak for portions of the interior Northwest on May 30-31 as it proceeded to lift northeastward toward the Canadian Prairies. Severe thunderstorms progressed northward across central Oregon and eastern Washington on May 30. Hailstones up to 2.00 inches (5.1 centimeters) were observed in Oregon, while a maximum measured wind gust of 97 mph (156 kph) was measured in Washington (Grant County). Additionally, severe storms affected portions of Utah and Idaho, associated with a preceding upper level trough. Storms in Utah generated a wind gust of 92 mph (148 kph) in Tooele County. On May 31, the severe threat continued eastward, with severe winds measured across portions of northwestern Montana. Mudslides and power outages, along with wind and tree damage to structures were reported. Total economic losses are expected to be in the millions (USD).

Flooding (India) Torrential rains triggered a series of landslides in three districts – Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi of Barak valley in southern Assam on June 2. At least 21 people have died and no fewer than 20 were severely injured. According to Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), a period of pre-monsoonal rainfall on May 27-June 2 resulted in flash floods; claiming at least 10 additional lives while around 200,000 people were affected across 7 districts of Assam. Significant damage to local agriculture and livestock were also noted. Total economic losses have not yet been determined.

Flooding (Yemen) Heavy seasonal rains triggered flash floods in Hadhramaut, Shabwa and Al Mahrah governates in the central and eastern Yemen on June 3-4. According to the local media reports, 16 people have died, and more than 85 others sustained injuries. No fewer than 25 houses were flooded, while damage to vehicles and livestock was also reported during the event.

Weekly Cat Report 14

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 15

Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 16

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 22.89 -1.69

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 24.46 -1.52

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 29.31 -0.73

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 65 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states that a decreasing chance (lowering to 45 to 50 percent) into the boreal autumn.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

Weekly Cat Report 18

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

TD Cristobal 18.3°N, 90.2°W 35 80 miles (130 kilometers) NW from Flores, Guatemala E at 3 mph

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center

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Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): May 29 – June 4

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

5/31/2020 15.27°S, 70.66°W 6.0 153 km 32 kilometers (20 miles) WNW of Lampa, Peru

6/3/2020 23.30°S, 68.42°W 6.8 97 km 46 kilometers (29 miles) SSW of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile

6/4/2020 2.92°N, 128.25°E 6.4 107 km 13 kilometers (8 miles) NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

Source: United States Geological Survey

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U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats The most significant threat will be the potential for heavy rain between June 8-9 across much

of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The circulation from Tropical Depression Cristobal is anticipated to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and track toward the central Gulf Coast. The exact track and intensity of the system are still somewhat uncertain. Heavy rains are forecasted to spread north between June 9-10.

A threat for severe weather exists in the Northern Plains on June 7.

The Central Plains and parts of the Midwest will experience much above normal temperatures June 7-8, as heat indices are anticipated to approach and exceed 100 (°F). Meanwhile, expanding drought conditions and an enhanced fire risk will be present over the southern Rockies and Central High Plains.

Weekly Cat Report 22

U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest through the end of May into early June.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: June 4* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 19,965 1,584,061 79.34

2017 24,162 2,205,478 91.28

2018 23,505 1,708,549 72.69

2019 14,180 262,948 18.54

2020 18,021 373,424 20.72

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 21,621 1,106,628 51.18

*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: June 4 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

Oklahoma 526 74,815 142.23

Texas 1,272 51,609 40.57

Florida 1,567 51,435 32.82

Arizona 695 48,918 70.39

Kansas 34 21,796 641.06

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

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Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Current Stage (ft) Flood Percentile

Illinois River at Beardstown, Illinois 23.25 166%

Santee River at Jamestown, South Carolina 18.17 162%

Illinois River near Havana, Illinois 21.32 152%

Illinois River at Valley City, Illinois 20.48 146%

Pee Dee River at Pee Dee, South Carolina 25.85 136%

Source: United States Geological Survey

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Source Information Tropical Storms Amanda and Cristobal affect Americas U.S National Hurricane Center Red alert for rains: 15 dead, 7 missing and ravages from tropical storm Amanda in El Salvador. El Salvador Ministry of the Environment, El Salvador National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction, Guatemala Permanent Contingency Commission, Honduras Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Mexico Tropical Storm Cristobal drenching Mexico’s Gulf coast, Associated Press

Cyclonic Storm Nisarga makes India landfall Four killed as Cyclone Nisarga hits Maharashtra coast, blows over, The Indian Express India Meteorological Department Cyclone Nisarga live updates, Times of India Nisarga leaves trail of destruction, 6 dead, Deccan Herald

Severe weather, damaging winds impact the U.S. U.S National Weather Service U.S Storm Prediction Center Derecho blasts Philadelphia region with 80 mph winds as Northeast braces for second round of storms, Washington Post Rare Derecho Kills 3 in Montco, Tornado Scare for Philly Hours Later, NBC10 Philadelphia

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief U.S National Weather Service US Storm Prediction Center Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) Landslides kill 21 in Assam’s Barak Valley, Times of India ROP : 3 dead, 140 rescued during tropical depression in Dhofar, Daily Observer – Oman Flooding from heavy seasonal rains leaves 16 dead in Yemen, The Washington Post Floodlist

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Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon steven.bowen@aon.com Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon michal.lorinc@aon.com

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© Aon plc 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

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No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.

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