Current Watches and Warnings - Aon...

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Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis; Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten; Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy; British Virgin Islands; U.S. Virgin Islands; Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra; Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe; Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas; Turks and Caicos Islands; Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe; Dominica; Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 17.1° north, 59.8° west LOCATION: 130 miles (210 kilometers) east of Antigua MOVEMENT: west at 15 mph (24 kph) WINDS: 185 mph (295 kph) with gusts to 225 mph (360 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 175 miles (280 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 60 miles (95 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 5 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH


Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

Latest Satellite Picture

Source: NOAA

Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 130 miles (210 kilometers) east of Antigua, is currently tracking west at 15 mph (24 kph). Irma continues to exhibit a remarkably impressive satellite presentation. The NHC increased the intensity a few hours ago to 185 mph (295 kph) based on measured data from an Air Force aircraft earlier this afternoon. The minimum pressure measured by a dropsonde in the eye was 926 millibars. Irma becomes only the fifth Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 185 mph (295 kph) or higher. The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).

The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the northeastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of an outer eyewall. This likely suggests the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. These changes in inner-core structure will likely result in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days. Otherwise, increasing sea surface temperatures and a very favorable upper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC forecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands of the Greater Antilles.

Data from latest satellite and radar imagery suggests that Irma is moving a little north of due west. A strong ridge of high pressure extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large frontal boundary over the eastern United States is forecast to lift northeastward and allow the ridge to build westward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.



Over the weekend, a trough diving southward over the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma to turn northward. The forecast model guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. One cluster of models (including HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF (Euro)) show a more southerly track and a sharper turn around Day 5; while the GFS is farther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near a consensus of these models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow. These hazards will spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts.

Additional Information

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands: 7 to 11 feet Turks and Caicos Islands: 15 to 20 feet Southeastern Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix: 7 to 11 feet Northern coast of Puerto Rico: 3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix: 1 to 2 feet



The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Northeast Puerto Rico & the British/U.S. Virgin Islands, except St. Croix: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, & St. Croix: 2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southwest Haiti: 1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days.



National Hurricane Center Forecast



Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds



National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))



Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))



Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))



Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data

Source: NHC

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov

NEXT CAT ALERT: Wednesday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning

Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone


Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm



Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone


Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170


Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205



115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260



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Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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