WEATHER SCENARIOS GENERATOR WEATHER SCENARIOS GENERATOR AND SERVER FOR THEAND SERVER FOR THE

AIRSPACE AND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS AIRSPACE AND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS SIMULATIONSIMULATION

Presentation to the JPDO NextGen Demonstration Coordination Team

Chris Herbster (herbstec@erau.edu)

Applied Meteorology / ERAU – Daytona Beach

Project DescriptionProject Description Create a weather and aviation data archive

– coupled with a cataloging and searchable database Develop a way to create convection at a location

– Must be physically consistent with surrounding environment.

Developed to support research in NextGen applications for simulations at the NASA Langley Research Center Air Traffic Operations Laboratory (ATOL). – Initial focus is on ADSB based cockpit decision making

tools for airspace deconfliction in high density conditions.

Project is in second and final year (thru August 2010)

Weather DatabaseWeather Database

Server provides both archive and searchable interface

Data archive consists of ~8 months = 16 TBModular approach

– Separates metadata from actual data files– Allows easy creation of new search parameters

Data ArchiveData Archive Gridded Data Sets Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model data Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) Current Icing Potential (CIP) Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) National Radar Mosaic (ERAU product) NEXRAD Level-II Data NEXRAD Level-III Products Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) (ERAU product similar to FAA)Text Data All Aviation Weather Center (AWC) text products, such as:

– Airman’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET)– Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET) and convective SIGMET– Area Forecasts (FA)– Winds Aloft– Pilot Reports (PIREP)– Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)

Center Weather Advisory (CWA)/Meteorological Impact Statements (MIS) Severe Watches from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

Metadata ConstructionMetadata Construction

Activities Completed – NCWD (National Convective Wx Diag.)– GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidence)– CIP (Current Icing Potential)

To do– Need to write readers for some data– Need to fill in ASDI data (aircraft positions)

and construct WITI-like products

Database Regions - MethodDatabase Regions - Method

Country broken into small sqauresEach square assigned an idThese squares are then mapped with regions

– State (TBD)– Country (TBD)– Geographic region (TBD)– ARTCC– Airport

User InterfaceUser Interface

Basic functionality is in placeAllows search of

– One parameter– One Region– One time

User Interface cont.User Interface cont.

Optimizing queries– Some queries take up to 20 sec

Adding in AND / OR / NOT queriesStill many warts and intermediate

roadblocks to resolve

User Interface cont.User Interface cont.

Allow saving of queries– Back end is in place– Needs user management elements still

Correlate users with queries Users with groups

User Interface cont.User Interface cont.

Exporting data– Currently shows time +1 hour– Allow time stepping– Allow changing of time / window

Currently allows download of raw data– Add in packaging for running WRF– Other export options? (TBD)

User Interface DemoUser Interface Demo

http://wxnasa1.db.erau.edu/DatabaseSearch.html See other presentation for sample images

WRF Model Simulations of WRF Model Simulations of Convective Weather for the Convective Weather for the Evaluation and Testing of Evaluation and Testing of

NextGen Decision Making ToolsNextGen Decision Making Tools

Putting convective weather in places that nature didn’t.

Convective Hotspot MethodConvective Hotspot MethodInitial simulations –> Change Surface Albedo

Idea was to have solar heating drive convection Great idea, real world is more complicated! Clouds formed in area of hot spot quenched the solar

heating. Initial test region included a lake which stayed hot!

Current Approach Create a (very) hot lake! Lake temperatures presented here: 335K (143F), 350K (170F),

365K (197F), 380K (224F)

Convective Hotspot MethodConvective Hotspot MethodCurrent Approach

– Create a (very) hot lake! Interesting results for the three “cooler” lake

temperatures tested thus far A boiling lake [380K (224F)] didn’t work (yet?)

– Still a bit too simple for controlling intensity.– Coming simulations will look at thermodynamic

state in a region Perhaps CAPE or Lifted Index as an approximation of

forced convection intensity

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0HR 0

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1HR 1

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2HR 2

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3HR 3

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4HR 4

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5HR 5

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6HR 6

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – AnimAnim

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0HR 0

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1HR 1

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2HR 2

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3HR 3

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4HR 4

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5HR 5

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6HR 6

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – AnimAnim

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0HR 0

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1HR 1

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2HR 2

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3HR 3

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4HR 4

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5HR 5

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6HR 6

Convective Hotspot Method – Convective Hotspot Method – AnimAnim

Next StepsNext Steps

Code is written to work on arbitrary size domain as well as arbitrary size and location of hot spot

Development of throttling capability is being pondered.– A series (20+ simulations) of lake sizes and

temperatures have been run, analysis will continue after final exams(!)

Visit us in Atlanta!