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WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira.
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WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira
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Transcript of WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIES METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERU Jorge Chira.
WEATHER FORECASTING WEATHER FORECASTING ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES
METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGICAL AND HIDROLOGICAL WEATHER SERVICE OF PERUOF PERU
Jorge Chira
CLIMATECLIMATECLASIFICATIONCLASIFICATION
OF PERUOF PERU
Marzo, 2009
Incorporación de la Gestión del Riesgo y/o Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Sector Agropecuario
WatershedsWatersheds
la disponibilidad superficial del agua, tal como se aprecia en la Tabla 1. Tabla 1: Balance hídrico superficial por vertiente
Vertiente Precipitación
(mm) Eto ref. (mm)
Balance (mm)
Pacífico 274,3 825,8 -551,5
Atlántico 2060,8 1 343,8 717,0
Titicaca 813,5 589,9 223,6 Fuente SENAMHI, 2005
TITICACA
0,5% disponibilidad agua
4,0% población
9 715 m3/hab
62 r
íos
ATLÁNTICO97,7% disponibilidad Agua26,0% población292 000 m3/hab
564 ríos
PACÍFICO
1,8 % disponibilidad agua
70 % de población
2 027 m3/hab
381 ríos
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Masa A
nu
al (M
MC
)
Masa Multianual (MMC)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Masa A
nu
al (M
MC
)
Masa Multianual (MMC)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Masa A
nu
al (M
MC
)
Masa Multianual (MMC)
Weather Events In PeruWeather Events In Peru
Flooding Snow Storm
Strong WindsMudslide
55
OBSERVACIONAL SYSTEM
Red de Estaciones Automáticas
SENAMHI
Red de Estaciones Sinópticas CORPAC
+/- 50
+/- 27
66
OBSERVACIONAL SYSTEM
MODEL AREA TEMPORAL RESOLUTIÓN
ESPACIAL RESOLUTIÓN
INITIAL CONDITIONS
ADAPTACION COMPUTING REQUERIMENTS
TIME OPINION TECNICA SOBRE EL MODELO
ETA – 22 km - Peru
Regional c/6 hours 22 km Modelo GFS Operational Dell Presicio 470Server
1 Year This Model works good with irregular topographies, specially with a large slope like peruvian higlands.I has an adjunsting to the convection scheme.
ETA-32km – South América
Regional c/6 hours 32 km Modelo GFS Operational Dell Presicio 470Server
1 Year
WRF-33km Regional c/6 hours 33 km Modelo GFS Testing Sun Fire V40ZServer
MIDDLE LAST YEAR
WRF is a new generation mesoscale model prediction, designed to operational forecast and atmospheric research.It has the best of Eta, MM5 en others.
WRF-22km Regional c/6 hours 22 km Modelo GFS Testing Sun Fire V40ZServer
WRF-Nested Regional c/6 hours 36 km/12 km 36 km-Model GFS12km-nested whit 36 km
Testing Sun Fire V40ZServer
BRAMS/nested Regional c/6 hours 20km / 1.5 km
CCM3GFS
Testing HP Proliant DL 380 G5Server
ENDING LAST YEAR
BRAMS is a brazilian versión of RAMS model adapted to the tropics, it makes simulation of atmospheric circulations to several spatial scales..
CCM3 Global Monthly 2.8° TSM Reynolds NOAA
Adaptado COMPAQ Alpha ES40Server
8 Years This model support to stational forecast. However there are new versions , in this sense we are trying to implement the CAM model.
NUMERICAL MODELS IN SENAMHI
88
WEATHER FORECASTING PROCESS
http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/
CURRENTLY
FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTING
CLIMATE FORECAST
FORECAST PRODUCTS
CLIMATE FORECAST
1212
WEATHER WARNINGS
HIDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS
PRIVATE FORECAST PRODUCTS
CAMISEA EXPERIENCE
PRIVATE FORECAST PRODUCTS
CAMISEA EXPERIENCE
DIGITISING PLUVIOGRAPHS AND OTHERS
SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLOUD CLASIFICATION
SATELLITE PICTURES APLICATION
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/peru/
STORM CLASSIFICATION ALBEDO
Current Limitations in MHWSCurrent Limitations in MHWSMeteorological and Hidrological Meteorological and Hidrological
Weather ServiceWeather Service
Low Budget in weather observing systemLow Budget in weather observing system
Few human resources for weather forecasting and climate predictionFew human resources for weather forecasting and climate prediction
Limited automatization of meteorological processLimited automatization of meteorological process
Limited use of NWP products and new technologyLimited use of NWP products and new technology
Numerical Models without data assimilation.Numerical Models without data assimilation.
Need of Regional climate model for seasonal forecasts.Need of Regional climate model for seasonal forecasts.
Difficult monitoring of weather systems specially at subsynoptic and Difficult monitoring of weather systems specially at subsynoptic and mesoescale scalemesoescale scale, strong interactions with extratropics, teleconnections, strong interactions with extratropics, teleconnections
Forecasts and early warnings highly uncertain and difficult verificationForecasts and early warnings highly uncertain and difficult verification
Limited users of forecasts and Weather WarningsLimited users of forecasts and Weather Warnings
NeedsNeeds
Training in remote sensingTraining in remote sensing
Training in numerical data assimilationTraining in numerical data assimilation
Geonetcast Implementation for two users: Stakeholders and Geonetcast Implementation for two users: Stakeholders and NWSNWS
Increased band of Geonetcast to upload grib data of numerical Increased band of Geonetcast to upload grib data of numerical modelsmodels
Advices for improve observational, processing and Advices for improve observational, processing and telecomunication systemstelecomunication systems
THANK YOU!
ENJOY PERU
