Weather Extreme eventsOver Sudan

Recent Khartoum flood as example

Dr. Ahmed Mohamed Abdel Karim

Director of SMA

ahmed@ersad.gov.sd

الرحيم الرحمن الله بسم

What is Weather? i) ‘State of atmosphere at a particular time and space as

defined by the various meteorological elements. (WMO)

• The aspects involved in weather include small areas and duration, expressed in numerical values, etc.

• The different weather elements are • (1) solar radiation• (2) temperature( maximum , minimum)• (3)pressure• (4) wind direction and speed• (5)humidity • (6)rainfall • (7)evaporation

What is climateWhat is climate??Climate is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or

millions of years .

WMO period: 30 years

What is climate change and variabilityWhat is climate change and variability??

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by 1-changes in the mean or variability of its properties, 2-and that persists for an extended period, 3-typically decades or longer.

.

What is climate change and variabilityWhat is climate change and variability??

Climate variability refers to variations beyond individual weather events in the mean state and other statistics of the climate (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all spatial and temporal

scales .

Climate change Example

Rainfall Characteristic

• Rainfall Intensity : amount per hours

• Rainfall spatial distribution

• Rainfall onset

• Rainfall cessation

Sudan Climate zones

في المناخية التغيرات مؤشراتالسودان

في • والحراره االمطار معدالت وتحليل بدراسهالبيانات علي إعتمادا السودان مدن بعض

الجوي لإلرصاد العامه الهيئه تعدها التي المناخيه.

نحو • تميل الحراره في تغيرات هناك ان نالحظان كما االخيره سنه الخمسين خالل االرتفاع

نحو االتجاه مع االمطار في تذبذب هناكالنصف معدالت مقارنه المستويات في التناقص

الماضي . القرن من االول

Kosti Annual rainfall

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

years

mm

Geniena Annual Rainfall

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

Years

mm

ABH

ABN

AQQ

ARB

ARM

ATB

BAR

BNS

DMZ

DNG

DUM

NSR

FSH

GDF

GEN

HAL

HAS

HDB

HLG

JUB

KDG

KHA

KHW

KRM

KSL

KST

KUR

MLK

NHD

NYL

OBD

PSD

RAG

RNKRSH

SNR

SHW

SHM

SHN

TKR

TOR

UMB

WAU

WHF

WMD

NAG

PIB

MAR YEI

YAM

KAP

22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

500 mm

200 mm

المناخي المعدل بين المعدل 1970-1941المقارنة وم2000-1971المناخي

Extreme Rainfall events

• The following slide shows that Extreme events with respect to the annual rainfall in the normal(1981 to 2010) (in %).

• Notice that south-ward the percentage is decrease. Meaning the rainfall annual in larger than the extreme event of the rainfall happen in the rainy season.

EXTREME STATES date annual %107 Gedaref aug-8-1996 610.4 18125 Rashad aug-2-1992 656.3 1989 Geneina jun-22-1985 430.9 21

108 Um_banien aug-07-1998 501.9 22167 Ed Damazine jly-30-1994 692.1 24143 Abu Naama aug-8-1998 584.9 2496 Nyala aug-13-2008 383.4 2588 En Nahud aug-29-1985 349.6 25

176 Kadugli sep-3-1995 687.7 2695 El Obeid jly-27-1999 348.8 27

138 Babanusa jun-15-1987 501.1 28125 Sennar jly-24-2000 408.2 3193 Wad Medani aug-21-1985 286.3 33

118 Kosti jun-30-2007 330.2 36110 Ed Duiem aug-05-1995 244.6 45116 N-halfa sep-26-2002 249.5 46145 Kassla jun-27-2007 235 62132 El Fasher aug-3-2005 193.4 6864 Atbara aug-4-1988 48 133

119 Shendi aug-20-1998 74.9 159201 Khartoum aug-4-1988 120 167163 Port Sudan oct-27-1997 83.9 19539 Karima aug-9-1999 13.9 28260 Dongola jly-23-1994 8.2 732

ήτ ϤϟΔϴϤϛ α ΎϘϤϟϊ ϗϮϣ έΎτ ϣϻΕΎγΎϘϣϡϮρήΨϟΔϳϻϮϟ

ϡϮρήΨϟ 177.8 ΩΎλ έϻΔγΎέ 1 ˯ϮΒϨΘϟέΎτ Ϥϟ 2 100.3 Ώή ϒϳήΠϟϏ 3 111.0 ΎϴϘϳήϓΔόϣΎΟ 4 73.8 ν Ύϳήϟ 5 28.0 ΔρήθϟΔϓΎΤμ ϟ 6 100.5 ΔϠϴϣήϟ 7 93.1 ϰΗϮΗ 8 110.3 ΔρήθϟΓήΠθϟ 9 77.6 ΪϳΪΣΔϜγήΠθϟ 10 175.4 Δϴότ ϗΔϠϛϼϜϟ 11 89.0 ΔϔϠϟΔϠϛϼϜϟ 12 111.4 ΓΪΣϮϟΔϠϛϼϜϟ 13 84.0 ˯ΎϴϟϭϞΒΟ 14 109.4 ΔϠΤϟΎΑϮγ 15 148.2 ΏϼϴϘθϟ 16 59.4 ϝΎϤηΓήΒΟ 17 126.7 ϦϴδΣΪϋ 18 172.6. ϦϜδϟ/ΔϠϛϼϜϟ

ϰΒόθϟ 19

 الخرطوم والية امطار

10/8/2014حتى 12/5/2014من

ϯ ήΤΑ.ϡϮρήΨϟ 74.0 ς γϭϯ ήΤΑ 1 212.3 ΕΎΒϤηΪλ ήϣ 2 89.0 ΔϴϓΎμ ϟ 3 214.6 ΓΪϣΎΣϻΔΒϴρ 4 86.3 έΎΘΨϤϟήϤϋ 5 27.1 ϮϛϮϛΔϠΣ 6 154.9 ϭέΪϜϟ 7 91.1 ϒγϮϳΝΎΤϟ 8 78.4 ϥΎΑϮο ϡ 9 176.9 ϥϮϔϠϴόϟ 10 147.0 ϕήηΎΑϮγ 11

ϥΎϣέΪϣ 27.9 ΓΩέϮϤϟ 1 118.7 ΏήόϟϰΣ 2 177.0 ΔϳϮϤϟ /Ϧϴϣί ϼϤϟ

3

119.3 ϮϨϟ/ΓέϮΜϟ 4 121.2 ˯ΎΧήϟΓΪΑϡ 5 363.8 ΎϴΒϴϟϕϮγ /ϡϼδϟέΩ 6 120.0 ϚϨΒϟ/ΪόγϮΑ

ϯ έΎϘόϟ 7

78.7 ϥΎϜγϻΓέΎΤϟ/ϰΒόθϟ72

8