“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel
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Transcript of “Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel
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““Weather 101” – or Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel Beyond the Weather Channel
Edward J. Hopkins, PhDEdward J. Hopkins, PhDAssistant Wisconsin State ClimatologistAssistant Wisconsin State Climatologist
Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
20 June 201220 June 2012
Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council Twilight MeetingTwilight Meeting
University of Wisconsin-ExtensionUniversity of Wisconsin-ExtensionMayville, WIMayville, WI
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Differences between Weather & ClimateDifferences between Weather & Climate
““Climate is what you expect, weather is Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”what you get.”
Weather is –Weather is –– WeatherWeather ( (“weder”“weder”) ) – State of atmosphere at a given place or State of atmosphere at a given place or
time.time. Climate is –Climate is –
– ClimateClimate ( (“klima”“klima”))– Typical conditions & extremes for a Typical conditions & extremes for a
local.local.
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SeeSee http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/pdf/newsletter/Spring_2012_Vol4_Iss1.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t
The group will certainly be different than the 2005 group. I would suggest building the topic as close to the weather The group will certainly be different than the 2005 group. I would suggest building the topic as close to the weather conditions that are we are currently experiencing. The summer solstice is a great point from which to begin. What conditions that are we are currently experiencing. The summer solstice is a great point from which to begin. What has happened prior to that point (known) to predicting what will happen in the rest of the growing season. I think has happened prior to that point (known) to predicting what will happen in the rest of the growing season. I think that growing degree days is a great indicator of what has happened weather-wise and what is needed to make a that growing degree days is a great indicator of what has happened weather-wise and what is needed to make a successful crop from that point on. (Just a suggestion for a point from which to start.)successful crop from that point on. (Just a suggestion for a point from which to start.)
My nephew (who says that he had you for a class at UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says that My nephew (who says that he had you for a class at UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says that Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a partnership in developing new hybrids. He is tight-lipped on what that is Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a partnership in developing new hybrids. He is tight-lipped on what that is about, but perhaps you would have some insight into this as well.about, but perhaps you would have some insight into this as well.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/gdd.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/grodgree.txt
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Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last 50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last 50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council recently released a study entitled "Doubled Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council recently released a study entitled "Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the number of major Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the number of major precipitation events that produce deadly and costly flooding across eight Midwestern States (Illinois, precipitation events that produce deadly and costly flooding across eight Midwestern States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the last half century. Rainstorms producing Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the last half century. Rainstorms producing three or more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent between 1961 and 2011. [The Rocky Mountain three or more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent between 1961 and 2011. [The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization] http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htmClimate Organization] http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm
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COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE& CLIMATE
WeatherWeather– Current Weather Observational DataCurrent Weather Observational Data– Weather MapsWeather Maps– Weather ForecastsWeather Forecasts
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MADISON’S CURRENT WEATHERMADISON’S CURRENT WEATHERMadison Weather at 1000 AM CST MON 21 FEB 2005 Updated twice an hour at :05 and :25
Sky/WeatherSky/Weather CLOUDY CLOUDY TemperatureTemperature 32°F 32°FDew PointDew Point 22°F 22°FRelative Humidity 66%Relative Humidity 66%
Wind NW 8 mphWind NW 8 mph Pressure 1014.9 mb (29.97 in)Pressure 1014.9 mb (29.97 in)
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TODAY’S NATIONAL WEATHERTODAY’S NATIONAL WEATHER
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TOMORROW’S NATIONAL WEATHERTOMORROW’S NATIONAL WEATHER
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COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE& CLIMATE
WeatherWeather– Current Weather Observational DataCurrent Weather Observational Data– Weather MapsWeather Maps– Weather ForecastsWeather Forecasts
Climate Climate – Long-term statisticsLong-term statistics– Climate maps & chartsClimate maps & charts– Long Range Forecasts/OutlooksLong Range Forecasts/Outlooks
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SummerSummerSolstice on 21 JuneSolstice on 21 June
Highest average temperaturesHighest average temperaturesIn mid JulyIn mid July
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From From National National Climatic Climatic
Data Data CenterCenter
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Anomaly = actual current T - long term average TAnomaly = actual current T - long term average T
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Summer (JJA) 2012 OutlookSummer (JJA) 2012 OutlookFrom From NOAA Climate Prediction CenterNOAA Climate Prediction Center
Temperature OutlookTemperature Outlook Precipitation OutlookPrecipitation Outlook
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Differences between Weather and Differences between Weather and ClimateClimate
““Climate is what you expect, weather is Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”what you get”
Weather is –Weather is –– State of atmosphere at a given place or State of atmosphere at a given place or
time.time. Climate is –Climate is –
– Typical conditions & extremesTypical conditions & extremes What’s the bottom line?What’s the bottom line?
– Be able to react and cope with each.Be able to react and cope with each.
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Some folklore has scientific meritSome folklore has scientific merit
– Red sunsets/sunrisesRed sunsets/sunrises– RainbowsRainbows– HaloesHaloes
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Red skies (or sails):Red skies (or sails):Red sails at night, sailors delight,Red sails at night, sailors delight,
Red sails at morning, sailors take warningRed sails at morning, sailors take warning
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RainbowsRainbowsIf seen in evening, fair weather aheadIf seen in evening, fair weather ahead
But, unsettled weather when seen in morning.But, unsettled weather when seen in morning.
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Halo PhenomenaHalo PhenomenaUsually indicates precipitation within 48 hours Usually indicates precipitation within 48 hours
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FolkloreFolklore
Some folklore has scientific meritSome folklore has scientific merit– Red sunsets/sunrisesRed sunsets/sunrises– RainbowsRainbows– HaloesHaloes
But others do notBut others do not– Groundhog Day Groundhog Day
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Groundhog DayGroundhog Day If Candlemas be fair and bright,If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.Winter has another flight.If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,Winter will not come again.Winter will not come again.
Six more weeks of winterSix more weeks of winter
Early spring?Early spring?
Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie did not see his shadow on 2 Feb 2005!
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AlmanacsAlmanacs Forecasts derived from “a secret Forecasts derived from “a secret
formula”formula”– devised by Almanac founder devised by Almanac founder
Robert B. Thomas in 1792Robert B. Thomas in 1792– He believed that weather was He believed that weather was
influenced by sunspots. influenced by sunspots. – Today they employ 3 “scientific Today they employ 3 “scientific
disciplines” to make long-range disciplines” to make long-range predictions: predictions:
solar sciencesolar science climatologyclimatology meteorologymeteorology
– ““our results are almost always our results are almost always very close to our traditional very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.”claim of 80 percent.”
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What “The Old Farmers Almanac” ThinksWhat “The Old Farmers Almanac” Thinks(Nov 2004-Oct 2005)(Nov 2004-Oct 2005)
Above average Dec Temp & precip
Above average Dec Temp & precip
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Warm west, chilly east
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Dry west, wet east
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends
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Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends
Forecast future event based upon a Forecast future event based upon a current condition or trend:current condition or trend:– What happened yesterday or What happened yesterday or
today, will happen tomorrow. today, will happen tomorrow. – OrOr– Move weather systems along with Move weather systems along with
same speed.same speed.
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TrendsTrends
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NowcastsNowcasts
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Current Drought ConditionsCurrent Drought Conditions
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Climate Outlook (Forecast)Climate Outlook (Forecast)
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs
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AnalogAnalog
This weather pattern (storm) looks This weather pattern (storm) looks like a previous system.like a previous system.– Keep file of old weather maps Keep file of old weather maps – Forecast based upon behavior of Forecast based upon behavior of
previous storm.previous storm.
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SS Edmund Fitgerald – SS Edmund Fitgerald – “The Pride of the American side”“The Pride of the American side”
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Comparison Comparison between between
10 Nov 1975 10 Nov 1975 & &
10 Nov 1998 10 Nov 1998 StormsStorms(From (From
Ackerman & Ackerman & Knox)Knox)
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting
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Weather Conditions around Weather Conditions around Mid latitude Storm systemMid latitude Storm system
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Weather along Storm TracksWeather along Storm Tracks(A) Warm Side(A) Warm Side vs. vs. (B) Cold side (B) Cold side
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Weather Conditions on the Weather Conditions on the Warm Side of StormWarm Side of Storm
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Weather Conditions on Cold Weather Conditions on Cold Side of stormSide of storm
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology
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Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology
Record Highs
Record Lows
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Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology
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Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology
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Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology
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Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology
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Probability Forecast based on Probability Forecast based on ClimatologyClimatology
Madison: 2 of 3 or 67%Green Bay: 3 of 4 or 77%Wausau: 9 of 10 or 93%
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
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Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
Developed in last 50 yearsDeveloped in last 50 years Run on super computersRun on super computers Use Equations that employ:Use Equations that employ:
– Newton’s Laws of MotionNewton’s Laws of Motion– Conservation of mass & energyConservation of mass & energy– Gas laws & thermodynamicsGas laws & thermodynamics
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Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather PredictionMaking a grid of initial dataMaking a grid of initial data
40 km 40 km50 levels
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Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction Applying the Equations of Atmospheric MotionApplying the Equations of Atmospheric Motion
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Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
Time steps on order
of minutes
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Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Jet Stream Level WindsJet Stream Level Winds
From Hydrometeorological From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterPrediction Center
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Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Surface Weather SystemsSurface Weather Systems
From Hydrometeorological From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterPrediction Center
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24-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast24-hr Quantitative Precipitation ForecastValid 6 PM tonightValid 6 PM tonight
From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterFrom Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
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COMPARISON OF FORECASTS OVER TIME
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Medium Range
Forecast3-7 Day From HPC
Wed AM Thurs AM Fri AM
Sat AM Sun AM
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Medium Range
Outlook8-14 Day from
HPC
Temp Prob – Next Mon thru Sun
Precip Prob – Next Mon thru Sun
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Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
Types of NWP ModelsTypes of NWP Models– NowcastsNowcasts– Short termShort term– Medium RangeMedium Range– OutlooksOutlooks
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Effects of Above Average SST on Effects of Above Average SST on North AmericaNorth America
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Effect of El NiEffect of El Niñño o
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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-20001930-2000
1997-981997-981982-831982-83
1991-931991-931994-951994-95
1986-871986-87Recent Major El NiñoRecent Major El Niño
Warm Phase EpisodesWarm Phase Episodes
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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Last FallLast Fall
in Celsius degreesin Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST values)(Current - Average SST values) NOAA-NESDISNOAA-NESDIS
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Recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) AnomaliesRecent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies in Celsius degreesin Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST values)(Current - Average SST values) NOAA-NESDISNOAA-NESDIS
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Monthly Outlook for March 2005Monthly Outlook for March 2005from NOAA Climatic Prediction Center (CPC)from NOAA Climatic Prediction Center (CPC)
Temperature OutlookTemperature Outlook Precipitation OutlookPrecipitation Outlook
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Mar 2005
Spring 2005
Monthly Monthly & &
Seasonal Seasonal OutlookOutlook
From From CPCCPC
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Contact InformationContact Information
Ed HopkinsEd Hopkins [email protected]
State Climatology OfficeState Climatology Office1225 W. Dayton St.,1225 W. Dayton St.,Madison, WI 53706Madison, WI 53706 http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~scohttp://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco
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ANNUAL GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATUREANNUAL GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATUREfor Instrumental Period of Recordfor Instrumental Period of Record
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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-20001930-2000
See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)
1997-981997-981982-831982-83
1991-931991-931994-951994-95
1986-871986-87Recent Major El NiñoRecent Major El Niño
Warm Phase EpisodesWarm Phase Episodes
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WHAT’S INVOLVEDWHAT’S INVOLVED Long-term “Normal” ConditionsLong-term “Normal” Conditions
– Atmospheric Component:Atmospheric Component: Semi-permanent Pressure Patterns;Semi-permanent Pressure Patterns; Wind Circulation Regime;Wind Circulation Regime; Precipitation Patterns.Precipitation Patterns.
– Oceanic Component:Oceanic Component: Large-Scale Ocean Circulation;Large-Scale Ocean Circulation; Upwelling;Upwelling; Sea-surface temperature patterns;Sea-surface temperature patterns; Thermocline.Thermocline.
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Average Air Pressure & Average Air Pressure & Atmospheric CirculationAtmospheric Circulation
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OCEAN CURRENTSOCEAN CURRENTS
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UPWELLING along South American CoastUPWELLING along South American Coast See Figures 9.21& 9.22 Moran (2002)See Figures 9.21& 9.22 Moran (2002)
Fig. 9.22 - Ekman SpiralFig. 9.22 - Ekman Spiral Fig. 9.21 - Resulting Fig. 9.21 - Resulting UpwellingUpwelling
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See Figure 9.23 A, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.23 A, Moran (2002)
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Effect of El NiEffect of El Niñño o
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See Figure 9.23 B, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.23 B, Moran (2002)
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Effects of SST on North AmericaEffects of SST on North Americasee Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)see Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)
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El Niño El Niño TeleconnectionsTeleconnections
see also Figure 9.24, see also Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)Moran (2002)
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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-20001930-2000
See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)
1998-20001998-2000
197519751995-961995-96
19881988
19731973Recent Major La NiñaRecent Major La NiñaCold Phase EpisodesCold Phase Episodes
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A Recent La Niña A Recent La Niña From NOAAFrom NOAA
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La NiLa Niñña a TeleconnectionsTeleconnections
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Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting
Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction StatisticalStatistical
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Changing climate from Changing climate from thermometersthermometers
Around the globeAround the globe
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March 2012 Statewide TempMarch 2012 Statewide Temp
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June 2012 OutlookJune 2012 OutlookFrom From NOAA Climate Prediction CenterNOAA Climate Prediction Center
Temperature OutlookTemperature Outlook Precipitation OutlookPrecipitation Outlook