WE Research5
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Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice. For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www .weonline.biz Morning Briefing Thursday, January 9, 2014 Indices All Share Index 19,600.26 KSE-30TM Index 19,478.32 KSE-100TM Index 26,341.08 Turnover All Share Index 321,177,400 KSE-30TM Index 80,735,700 KSE-100TM Index 188,892,540 Board Meetings Company Date Time Allawasaya Tex. & Fin. Mills Ltd 09-01-2014 3:30 Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd 09-01-2014 11:00 Johnson & Phillips 10-01-2014 2:30 Ansari Sugar Mills Ltd 10-01-2014 3:00 Amtex Ltd 13-01-2014 11:30 Unilever Pakistan Foods Ltd 05-03-2014 2:30 Market Review Last Change KSE 100 Index 26,341.08 81.51 KSE 30 Index 19,478.32 41.09 KMI 30 Index 44,303.19 135.81 All Share Index 19,600.26 54.86 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 6,358.48 17.74 Volume Leaders Close Volume LPCL 9.45 33,157,500 ANL 8.73 19,935,500 PIAA 9.63 17,868,000 KESC 6.19 16,227,000 JSCL 9.96 11,048,000 Attock Petroleum Limited: A good BUY We continue with our liking of Attock Petroleum as the top pick in the Oil Marketing Companies (OMC) sector as the company's earnings are expected to grow by 17.1% in FY14. The scrip of the company is currently trading at a price of Rs 509.23/share offering an upside potential of 18.5% from our Dec'14 tar- get price of Rs 603/share. The earnings are anticipated to remain impressive mainly on back of higher sales and margins as the company is continuously increasing its number of outlets while the bottom line would also be supported from by higher other income and decline in finance cost. The company is like- ly to earn a profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 4,573 million (EPS: Rs 55.13) in FY14 and Rs 4,673 million (EPS: Rs 56.34) in FY15 while in FY13 it earned a PAT of Rs 3,907 million (EPS: Rs 47.10) in FY13. Strong dividend payout history to continue The company has a good track of distributing cash dividends to its share hold- ers and we expect that the company would continue this trend moving forward too on back of strong balance sheet it have. The company does not have debt while it holds a huge amount of Rs 9 million as cash and cash equivalents. Therefore the company is in the posi- tion to announce further cash dividends where we anticipate a cash dividend of Rs 50 per share in FY14 and Rs 53 per share in FY15. The company had announced a cash dividend of Rs 45 per share in FY13. Expanding network, low inventory levels; a plus point The company is expanding its retail outlet at a rapid pace which is ultimately bringing in more revenues to the company. Till the end of 1QFY14 the compa- ny had a total of 421 outlets. In addition to that the company also is unaffected from inventory losses due to its low inventory levels which save it from occur- ring losses due to volatility in international oil prices. FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F Profit after Taxation (Rs mn) 3,907 4,573 4,673 4,775 EPS (Rs) 47.10 55.13 56.34 57.57 Book value (Rs/share) 169.31 168.61 171.94 174.51 DPS (Rs) 45.00 50.00 53.00 55.00 P/E (x) 10.81 9.24 9.04 8.85 P/BV (x) 2.51 3.02 2.96 2.92 Dividend Yield (%) 7.4% 9.8% 10.4% 10.8% Payout (%) 79.6% 90.7% 94.1% 95.5% ROE (%) 27.8% 32.7% 32.8% 33.0% ROA (%) 13.0% 15.0% 14.8% 14.3% Source: Company Reports &WE Research KSE Statistics January 8, 2014 Dividend Payout 84% 80% 91% 94% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F Source: WE Research
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Transcript of WE Research5
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Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at
the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a
solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any
opinion or statement herein or for any omission. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in
the report and are subject to change without notice.
For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz
Morning BriefingThursday, January 9, 2014
IndicesAll Share Index 19,600.26 KSE-30TM Index 19,478.32 KSE-100TM Index 26,341.08
Turnover
All Share Index 321,177,400
KSE-30TM Index 80,735,700
KSE-100TM Index 188,892,540
Board Meetings
Company Date Time
Allawasaya Tex. & Fin. Mills Ltd 09-01-2014 3:30
Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd 09-01-2014 11:00
Johnson & Phillips 10-01-2014 2:30
Ansari Sugar Mills Ltd 10-01-2014 3:00
Amtex Ltd 13-01-2014 11:30
Unilever Pakistan Foods Ltd 05-03-2014 2:30
Market Review Last Change
KSE 100 Index 26,341.08 81.51
KSE 30 Index 19,478.32 41.09
KMI 30 Index 44,303.19 135.81
All Share Index 19,600.26 54.86
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 6,358.48 17.74
Volume Leaders Close Volume
LPCL 9.45 33,157,500
ANL 8.73 19,935,500
PIAA 9.63 17,868,000
KESC 6.19 16,227,000
JSCL 9.96 11,048,000
Attock Petroleum Limited: A good BUY
We continue with our liking of Attock Petroleum as the top pick in the OilMarketing Companies (OMC) sector as the company's earnings are expected togrow by 17.1% in FY14. The scrip of the company is currently trading at a priceof Rs 509.23/share offering an upside potential of 18.5% from our Dec'14 tar-get price of Rs 603/share. The earnings are anticipated to remain impressivemainly on back of higher sales and margins as the company is continuouslyincreasing its number of outlets while the bottom line would also be supportedfrom by higher other income and decline in finance cost. The company is like-ly to earn a profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 4,573 million (EPS: Rs 55.13) inFY14 and Rs 4,673 million (EPS: Rs 56.34) in FY15 while in FY13 it earned aPAT of Rs 3,907 million (EPS: Rs 47.10) in FY13.
Strong dividend payout history to continue
The company has a good track of distributing cash dividends to its share hold-ers and we expect that the company would continue this trend moving forwardtoo on back of strong balance sheet it have. The company does not have debtwhile it holds a huge amountof Rs 9 million as cash andcash equivalents. Thereforethe company is in the posi-tion to announce furthercash dividends where weanticipate a cash dividend ofRs 50 per share in FY14 andRs 53 per share in FY15.The company hadannounced a cash dividendof Rs 45 per share in FY13.
Expanding network, low inventory levels; a plus point
The company is expanding its retail outlet at a rapid pace which is ultimatelybringing in more revenues to the company. Till the end of 1QFY14 the compa-ny had a total of 421 outlets. In addition to that the company also is unaffectedfrom inventory losses due to its low inventory levels which save it from occur-ring losses due to volatility in international oil prices.
FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F
Profit after Taxation (Rs mn) 3,907 4,573 4,673 4,775
EPS (Rs) 47.10 55.13 56.34 57.57
Book value (Rs/share) 169.31 168.61 171.94 174.51
DPS (Rs) 45.00 50.00 53.00 55.00
P/E (x) 10.81 9.24 9.04 8.85
P/BV (x) 2.51 3.02 2.96 2.92
Dividend Yield (%) 7.4% 9.8% 10.4% 10.8%
Payout (%) 79.6% 90.7% 94.1% 95.5%
ROE (%) 27.8% 32.7% 32.8% 33.0%
ROA (%) 13.0% 15.0% 14.8% 14.3%
Source: Company Reports &WE Research
KSE Statistics January 8, 2014
Dividend Payout
84%
80%
91%94%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F
Source: WE Research
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Pivot AnalysisCompany CR RSI Buy 1 Buy 2 Sell 1 Sell 2 Pivot
KSE 100 INDEX 26341.08 81.83 26,258 26,174 26,426 26,512 26,343
Attock Cement 142.72 44.40 141.85 141.00 143.70 144.70 142.85
Adamjee Insurance 37.78 21.43 37.50 37.25 38.30 38.75 38.00
Askari Bank 13.97 56.27 13.80 13.65 14.10 14.25 13.95
Azgard Nine 8.73 72.44 8.45 8.20 8.95 9.15 8.65
Attock Petroleum 509.23 59.64 507.80 506.40 510.80 512.40 509.40
Attock Refinery 219.70 65.99 216.75 213.85 222.35 225.05 219.45
Bank Al-Falah 27.60 62.84 27.40 27.20 27.80 27.95 27.55
BankIslami Pak 6.95 52.86 6.85 6.75 7.10 7.25 7.00
Bank.Of.Punjab 11.73 69.53 11.65 11.55 11.85 11.95 11.75
Faysal Bank 12.23 65.16 12.10 11.90 12.40 12.60 12.25
Fauji Cement 15.96 67.27 15.75 15.60 16.10 16.25 15.95
Fauji Fert Bin 44.65 62.00 44.15 43.65 45.10 45.60 44.60
Fauji Fertilizer 116.09 62.33 115.70 115.30 116.60 117.10 116.20
Habib Bank Ltd 167.13 61.87 164.40 161.70 169.40 171.70 166.70
Hub Power 64.26 67.64 63.90 63.55 64.50 64.70 64.10
ICI Pakistan 263.80 84.58 256.25 248.75 271.15 278.55 263.65
Lucky Cement 312.82 70.97 309.95 307.05 316.75 320.65 313.85
MCB Bank Ltd 290.68 54.55 288.75 286.85 294.00 297.35 292.10
Maple Leaf Cement 29.27 72.78 28.75 28.25 29.85 30.50 29.35
National Bank 58.13 56.97 57.85 57.60 58.65 59.15 58.35
Oil & Gas Dev. XD 286.13 69.67 284.20 282.20 287.95 289.75 286.00
P.S.O. XD 338.81 65.72 336.95 335.05 341.75 344.75 339.90
P.T.C.L.A 29.50 47.21 29.35 29.20 29.75 30.05 29.60
Sui North Gas 22.43 60.26 22.10 21.75 22.65 22.90 22.30
CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.
RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70 Indicate overbought
position.
T-Bills (3 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 9.96%T-Bills (6 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 9.98%T-Bills (12 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 8.98%Discount Rate 13-Nov-2013 10.00%Kibor (1 Mth) 08-Jan-2014 10.22%Kibor (3 Mths) 08-Jan-2014 10.08%Kibor (6 Mths) 08-Jan-2014 10.14%Kibor (9 Mths) 08-Jan-2014 10.42%Kibor (1 Yr) 08-Jan-2014 10.44%P.I.B (3 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 11.70%P.I.B (5 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 12.35%P.I.B (10 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 12.58%P.I.B (15 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 13.10%P.I.B (20 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 13.15%P.I.B (30 Yrs) 08-Jan-2014 13.25%
Key Data
Money Market
GDR Update
Symbol $.Price PKR/S
MCB (1 GDR= 2 Shares) 4.30 226.80
OGDC (1 GDR= 10 Shares) 24.50 258.45
UBL (1 GDR= 4 Shares) 2.50 65.93
LUCK (1 GDR= 2 Shares) 6.00 316.47
HUBC (1 GDR= 25 Shares) 15.23 64.26
NCCPL (U.S $ in million)
FIPI (08-Jan-2014) 1.11
Local Companies (08-Jan-2014) -1.65
Banks / DFI (08-Jan-2014) 2.80
Mutual Funds (08-Jan-2014) -2.71
NBFC (08-Jan-2014) 0.38
Local Investors (08-Jan-2014) 1.39
Other Organization (08-Jan-2014) -1.33
CommoditiesCrude Oil (brent)$/bbl 107.01 Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl 93.59 Cotton $/lb 84.58 Gold $/ozs 1,228.95 Silver $/ozs 19.73 Malaysian Palm $ 781 GOLD (PMEX) PKR 42,178 KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR 7,448
Portfolio Investment (U.S $ in million)
Yearly(Jul, 2013 up to 07-Jan-2014) 86.39
Monthly(Jan, 2014 up to 07-Jan-2014) -2.61
Daily (07-Jan-2014) -3.60
Total Portfolio Investment (27-Dec-2013) 4376
WE Financial Services
Corporate Office506, Fifth Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange Building, Stock Exchange Road, Karachi - 74000, PakistanURL: www.we.com.pk
Morning BriefingThursday, January 9, 2014
Book ClosureCompany From To D/B/R Spot Date AGM-EOGM
Siemens (Pak) Engineering 13-01-2014 20-01-2014 200(F) 03-01-2014 20-01-2014
Bank of Punjab 13-01-2014 20-01-2014 47.39(R) 03-01-2014 -
Habib Sugar Mills 18-01-2014 30-01-2014 50 - 30-01-2014
Thal Industries Corp. 19-01-2014 25-01-2014 15 - 25-01-2014
Shakarganj Mills 21-01-2014 28-01-2014 - - 28-01-2014
Adam Sugar Mills 23-01-2014 31-01-2014 25,200(R) - 31-01-2014
Shahtaj Sugar Mills 23-01-2014 04-02-2014 - - 30-01-2014
Shahmurad Sugar Mills 23-01-2014 03-02-2014 15 - 31-01-2014
Al-Noor Sugar Mills 23-01-2014 03-02-2014 5,5(B) - 31-01-2014
Kohinoor Sugar Mills 24-01-2014 31-01-2014 - - 31-01-2014
Dewan Sugar Mills 24-01-2014 30-01-2014 - - 30-01-2014
Khairpur Sugar Mills 29-01-2014 05-02-2014 - - 30-01-2014
Indications
# Extraordinary General Meeting
Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of pub-lishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any secu-rities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission.All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice.
For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz
