Waupaca Chain O Lakes Magazine July 2015

M A G A Z I N EJuly 2015 | $5.00

A Tribute to Summer Nights

THE RED MILL

NEW Economics ofLakefront Property

Battle ofthe BoatsA NewNormal?

BetterThan Ever

LESSONS FROM 2014 REALTY SALES AROUND THE CHAIN

LEGACY OFTHE CHAIN’S 1940s

2 | WaupacaChain.info

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his is the inaugural issue of this exclusive magazine. You’ve received it because you’re one

of those folks fortunate enough to own property along the shores of one of our beautiful Waupaca-area lakes.

As such, you’re a de facto member of a “club” that’s pretty difficult and expensive to join. And, while you may not know that many of your fellows, you can be confident that they share lots of the same interests and concerns.

You probably know my name as a real estate agent at Re/Max Lyons Real Estate, where I’ve been for ___ years. But before that, I was in the publishing business with a weekly newspaper. I’m a past president of the Waupaca Chain O’Lakes Association, and used to own a cottage on Miner Lake where my son Don and I made many wonderful mem-ories. Now I live year-round on Lime-kiln Lake and specialize in properties on and around the Chain O’Lakes.

This publication’s editor, Ron Arthur, vacationed in the Waupaca area over four decades before retiring from a big city real estate business to the shores of Long Lake (Saxeville). In recent years, he’s occupied his time by writ-ing several books about the history of the Chain O’Lakes and serving as a part-time Captain and tour guide on Clear Water Harbor’s excursion boat, The Chief Waupaca. He also serves on the Board at the Waupaca Historical Society.

The point is, Ron and I know a thing or two about real estate and the Chain O’Lakes, and we hope this publica-tion can enhance The Chain’s sense of community by delving into the essence of lake living.

A cottage at the lake is a time-honored tradition for middle-class Midwesterners. More than a vacation option, it’s a lifestyle. Generations of adults recall their youth in terms of the days they spent at their summer cot-tages. It’s a phenomenon that only Lake People really understand – and we all get it.

So here’s to you – the Lake People. You’re the folks who go down to the water’s edge and “say goodbye to the lake” before you drive back to your house in town. You’ve got a special spot where you like to watch the sun set, and another location where you lay back to gaze at the star-filled heavens on clear, moonless nights. You feel an extraordinary connection to the water, earth and air here – much deeper than what’s possible in the City – and that’s a big part of what we want celebrate in this magazine.

We’ll always have some articles about days gone by, because Lake People tend to have a deep respect for the history of the area surround-ing their summer homes. This must be due to the fact that, unlike a suburban shopping mall or a steel-and-glass skyscraper, a lake is rooted in Geolog-ic Time. We Lake People can sense that the waters were here many centuries before us, and will remain essentially unchanged for thousands of years after we’re gone.

At the lake, we intuit that we’re just the temporary stewards of our lit-tle parcels along the shore, and this makes us wonder about our predeces-sors. They, too, certainly built campfires on the beach, baited hooks and wet their lines, glided silently in little boats across still waters at dawn, and listened to the waves lapping against the shore at sunset.

They didn’t have cell phones, digital cameras, Internet access, or flat screen TVs, but somehow . . . in the important ways . . . those Lake People must have been just like us.

Thank you.

lake peopleIntroductory message from the publisher

T

M A G A Z I N E

WaupacaChain.info Magazine is published independently by Steve Huhta of ReMax/Lyons Real Estate of Waupaca. The publisher assumes sole responsibility for any and all content found within. For additonal news and content, as well as contect information, visit our companion websites:www.WaupacaChain.info andwww.facebook.com/waupacachainolakes

WaupacaChain.info Magazine ©2015. All rightsreserved. Reprodution of content is strictly prohibited without expressed written consent of the publisher.

President and Publisher | Steve Huhta

Editor | Ron Arthur

Art Director and Ad Design | Dave Hauser

Cover photo by Mike Kirk.See details at Page 70.

Steve

July 2015| 3


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contents The Red Mill, Better Than Ever

Planning for Panfish

Esther Williams Island?

Kitty Cornered or Catty Wompas

A New Normal? 2014 Chain Sales

The Battle of the Boats

In Memorium: Brinsmere

A Tribute to Summer Nights

Half Price Sale

The NEW Economics ofLake Property Ownership

Interview with Ron Arthur

2015 Chain Property Sales

24283844465458

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contents


Better Than

EVER

Sheila and Todd Lembcke, the new owners of the Red Mill, check how things are going on the opening day of the Coffee & Ice Cream Shop. It was just another work day for the couple, who – with the help of their children – have been working on rehabbing the property pretty much every day for more than a year.

July 2015| 7

F or more than a decade, the waterwheel outside the Red

Mill has been broken-down and overgrown with weeds. It’s been a conspicuous symbol of the decline of the once-iconic Chain O’Lakes gift shop inside.

The waterwheel still hasn’t been fixed yet. But don’t let that fool you. The revitalization of the interior of this the authentic 1855 structure is virtually complete.

Late in 2013, the property was purchased by Todd and Sheila Lembcke (the owners of Sunshine Heating and Air Conditioning, located about a mile north of the Red Mill on Hwy. K). After working feverishly all winter and the fol-lowing spring, the Lembcke’s were able to conduct a “soft opening” last summer. The main gift shop on the ground floor of the Mill was opened for business, although not fully stocked.

Working around customers, smaller construction projects con-tinued into the fall. Then the Red Mill and its grounds were closed this winter so that major renova-

tions could be accomplished. This year we’ll finally see the

grand opening of all the public ar-eas of this truly remarkable place.

Back in the 1800s, the sparkling waters of the Crystal River provid-ed the power used to grind grain and corn at the mill. Most similar mills were built right next to a dam in order to most efficiently extract energy from the falling water. But here the dam was 50 yards away (because the Red Mill once shared the water flow with another mill, now long gone).

After the fall, the waters of the Crystal River roiled and twisted, sweeping out a broad “S” curve around one point, then another. They straightened out for about two hundred yards right behind the mil before resuming their cir-cuitous ways.

The river and the Mill were once so important to this area that the residents called their village Crys-tal River, and the mill the Crystal River Grist Mill. [The village name was changed officially to Little Hope in 1980.)

Story and photography by Ron Arthur


It was the site – more than the building itself – that attracted Delmar Schmidt and his wife Edna to this spot in 1960. Working tirelessly for more than three dec-ades, the couple transformed the dilapidated gristmill into a bucolic phenomenon.

Edna Schmidt saw the potential to convert the inte-rior space of the mill into a Colonial Gift Shop, selling furniture, china, crystal, and home décor items. Delmar saw the potential to turn the banks of the Crystal River into a unique attraction.

While remodeling the ramshackle building in 1963, a waterwheel was added for purely aesthetic purposes. Because this mill sits so far from the dam, during its

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July 2015| 9

working days the actual water-power system did not utilize a wheel.

The Schmidts hired an expert craftsman named Sterling Schrock who specialized in building historic replicas using authentic period materials and techniques. He patterned the Red Mill’s water-wheel after a replacement wheel built as part of the 1929 restoration of an old gristmill at Spring Mill State Park in Indiana. (The mill in

Mitchell, Indiana is part of a living-history village where heritage interpreters portray the year 1863 and still grinds cornmeal today.)

In 1970, Mr. Schmidt sponsored Mr. Schrock to build a rep-lica covered bridge to span the Crystal River. Its massive 40-foot long beams were shipped in from Oregon, each cut whole from a single tree. Some 400 hand-made oak pegs were used to assemble 20-tons of rough-sawn lumber.

And in 1974 Mr. Schmidt had the Chapel in the Woods built on the other side of the bridge. It has been a popular spot for wed-dings ever since. However, it too had fallen onto hard times before the Lembckes took over. They immediately put new roofs on the Chapel and Covered Bridge, and refurbished them. River-level restrooms also have been installed in a section of the mill building that had been used for cold storage.

What a great place for a wedding! The refurbished chapel only seats about a few dozen guests, but additional chairs can be set up outside. Thousands of marriages have been performed here since the chapel was built in 1974.


For Edna Schmidt back in the 60s, 70s and 80s, the rambling floor plan of the three-story Mill was like a canvas to an artist. The various nooks and alcoves were filled, not so much with merchan-dise as with crafts, curiosities, and objets d’art. Mrs. Schmidt’s arrangements of the furniture and furnishings she sold always gave it a distinctively “homey” feel.

Sheila Lembcke, who manages the day-to-day operations at the Red Mill, has shown a similar flair. Although the product mix doesn’t include furniture per se, the décor is affably reminiscent of a quaint

and charming bygone era. The architecture of the main

room features a massive stone fireplace and large windows that look out over the covered bridge and chapel. The merchandise is displayed via a variety of antique furniture pieces that the Lembckes collected to enhance the mill’s historic ambiance.

As you wander from the main room, you find an art gallery, a candy shop, a general store, and this year’s new attraction – a Cof-fee and Ice Cream Shop. It is dec-orated with a railroad theme from the age of steam, and includes booths from an actual decommis-sioned train depot.

If you’re a Baby-Boomer who used to come up to the Chain in the 1970s, you certainly must re-call the glory days of the Red Mill. For you, a visit to this new version will take you back to the days

when the Schmidt’s Colonial Gift Shop was not only the premier re-tail store in the Waupaca area, but a destination that attracted tourists from all around the Midwest.

However, if you grew up in the days after Mr. and Mrs. Schmidt retired, you may never even have visited the Red Mill. That will most likely change. Even if you’re not typically inclined to visit historical sites, you can’t help but be im-pressed by the scenic splendor of the Crystal River as it slips past the Red Mill and under the cov-ered bridge. Besides, coffee is the beverage of choice for the Millen-nial Generation; and who doesn’t like ice cream?

Just don’t be put off by the ruin of a water wheel on the north side of the building.

The replica wheel that Mr. Schrock built back in 1970 turned on its gigantic wooden hub for

The grounds at the Red Mill may well be as big a draw as the gift shop. At great expense, the access to the water from street level has been greatly improved. And, while perhaps not the most dra-matic of the Lembcke’s improvements, the addition of new rest rooms down here will certainly be two of the most appreciated.

July 2015| 11

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only 12 years. During that time it was propelled not by the water cascading over the mill pond dam, but by water pumped into a deco-rative plume from the river below. The 3,000-pound white oak hub cracked in 1982, and, although

the wheel could no longer turn, it remained an attractive stationary feature for decades. In the 1990s, however, it began crumbling un-der its own weight.

The Lembckes plan to find a way to replace the waterwheel with-

out breaking the bank. They’re mindful that expensive crafts-manship is vulnerable to the limitations of natural materials, and they hope to find a techno-logically-modern substitute that will endure for many years.

Their children have been ac-tively involved in the renovation of the Red Mill, and they expect to keep this place in the family for a long time.

In the mid-1800s, as an opera-tional gristmill, this place also functioned as a social hub for the community. In the mid-1900s, as the Colonial Gift Shop, tourists and locals alike would stop by regularly to keep in touch with one another and the traditions of the Chain O’Lakes area. And now, in the early years of the

21st Century, the Red Mill is once again assuming a place on the local scene that’s commensurate with the beauty of its location and the depth of its heritage.

July 2015| 13

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P L A N N I N G F O R

Panfishf you’ve got a dock in the water, a cou-

ple of panfish probably are swimming around and beneath it right now.

From up above, your view tells you these fish are small. But if you hook these feisty fellows and get them out of the water, you’ll see at once how flat and round their bodies are. You might think their

shape resembles that of a frying pan. Or you might

think that they would fit nicely in a frying pan. Either way, you’d

have a good reason to call these little guys “pan” fish.

The truth is, there is no gener-ally accepted definition of this colloquial term, although it often is used interchangeably with the scientific term “Sunfishes” (or Centrarchiedae in Latin, which includes Bluegills, Pumpkinseeds, and Crappies).

I

July 2015| 15

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P L A N N I N G F O R

PanfishUntil recently, no one seems to have given much

thought to these common little fish. The DNR bag limit on panfish has long been 25 per day, and the season is open all year. Literally 99% of fishermen get bored well before they’ve bagged their limit (per DNR sur-veys). Sunfish reproduce prolifically, grow rapidly, and seem perpetually abundant.

But over the past several years, the DNR has becom-ing increasingly concerned with managing the State’s panfish population. They’ve determined that, since 1945, the average size of the Bluegills in Wisconsin lakes has decreased from about 7 inches to less than five.

For many years, the DNR has been capturing statisti-cal samples of fish from Wisconsin lakes. It uses this survey information to identify and track both positive and negative trends. Typically, the DNR uses the data in connection with efforts to manage the so-called “game fish” – larger species like Walleyes, Bass and Northern Pike that serious anglers seek.

But fully two-thirds of the 90 million fish caught in Wisconsin each year are panfish and perch. Most are immediately released, but still, the DNR’s sur-veys show that most people prefer to catch larger fish – whether they’re out for sport or food. Thus, the DNR figures that even an inch increase in the average length of those 60 million panfish that get caught each year will generate a lot of good will.

The task turns out to be more challenging than it might first appear. Because of their fast growth rates and brief life-cycles, shorter average-sizes across panfish populations often are the result of too many fish, not over-fishing.

An overabundance of panfish in a given lake can lead to stunted growth, because the natural food sup-ply is limited. But since panfish themselves are food for many species of game fish (especially Walleyes, Northern Pike and Largemouth Bass) large panfish populations can improve the number and quantity of more desirable game fish.

Panfish typically live only 7 or 8 years. In contrast, many game fish don’t even grow to legal size within that timeframe. Reducing the bag limit is a tried-and-true way to increase the population of larger game fish, but only 1% of Wisconsin fishermen take the full 25 panfish they’re allowed.

What’s more, a study by the Minnesota DNR sug-gests that the bag limit would have to be dropped all the way down to 10 or less to have any significant impact on average panfish size.

Over the last three years, the DNR has been seeking public input on a panfish management plan, and has found that such a severe bag limit reduction does not have citizen support in Wisconsin.

Based on public feedback, this spring the DNR


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is proposing three alternative types of panfish bag limit modifications to the Wisconsin Conservation Congress. If they are approved (which is likely) one of the three regulations (based on a random assign-ment) will go into effect on 96 selected test lakes in Wisconsin. All other Wisconsin lakes – including all the lakes on the Chain – will continue to use the cur-rent 25-panfish bag limit. During the years 2022 and 2023, the results will be evaluated and final regula-tions will be proposed.

In Waupaca County, Hartman Lake, Stratton Lake, and Shadow Lake each would be assigned different bag limits during the test period. At Hartman, the limit would allow a total of 15 panfish, but no more than 5 of any one species. At Stratton, the current limit of 25 panfish would still apply, but no more than 10 of any one species could be taken. At Shadow, the current limit of 25 would stand except during May and June, when it would be reduced to 15, including no more than 5 of any one species.

The most recent DNR fish survey on the Chain O’Lakes took place in 2011. Another is scheduled for this summer. The accompanying chart shows that the 2011 survey found lots of Bluegill here, but their aver-age size – consistent with the statewide average – is considered small.

For game fish, the 2011 survey singled out Large-mouth Bass, rating them high in both size and abun-dance.

If you’d like to learn more about the DNR panfish management plans, go on-line to dnr.wi.gov/topic/fishing/ and search for the keywords “panfish plan”.

The search will take you directly to the DNR web-site’s Planning for Panfish page. If you take the time to read through the reports and articles that you can link to from there, you can’t help but be impressed with the amount of thought and effort the DNR has devoted to these little fish that we typically take for granted.

BLACK CRAPPIE 28 7.6 4.3-12.7 Medium 14 27 Medium

BLUEGILL 698 4.7 1.9-9.6 Low 349 681 High

BROWN TROUT 20 8.0 5.6-12.2 High 2 1 Low

LARGEMOUTH BASS 630 12.0 3.3-19.1 High 139 68 High

NORTHERN PIKE 40 18.5 10.4-25.8 Medium 4 2 Low

PUMPKINSEED 25 6.1 3.5-7.8 Medium 13 24 Medium

ROCK BASS 33 5.7 3.0-10.8 High 3 1 Medium

SMALLMOUTH BASS 61 9.9 5.3-16.6 Medium 13 7 Low

WALLEYE 28 18.4 8.7-24.3 High 32 1 Low

WARMOUTH 15 5.9 3.8-7.7 High 8 15 Medium

WHITE SUCKER 5 16.3 12.1-20.5 Medium 3 5 Medium

YELLOW BULLHEAD 2 10.9 9.4-12.4 High 1 2 Low

YELLOW PERCH 18 5.8 2.9-11.0 Medium 9 18 Low

Number of fish captured in Waupaca Chain from electrofishing surveys during April 25, May 10 and June 1, 2011.

MEANLENGTH

LENGTHRANGE

SIZERATING

NO. PERHOUR

NO. PERMILE

ABUNDANCERATINGTOTALSPECIES

When you go to the webpage dnr.wi.gov/topic/fishing/ you also can download a free “Fish as Art” Calendar for 2015. Just click on the button in the right-hand column.

The printable PDF features high-resolution color images that have appeared on the state’s Trout Stamps over the years. It also provides information about important fishing dates, moon phases, game fish identification, and more.

You also can access the calendar directly to download it at: dnr.wi.gov/topic/fishing/docu-ments/outreach/FishCalendarLandscape2015.pdf.

If you or your kids would like a free poster of Wisconsin’s game fish, you can download a PDF file of one prepared by the DNR at the /fishing/website. The only problem is that you’ll still have to get it printed. Fortunately, we have a solution for that. Just go to the special website we have set up at FreePosterSizePixAndPrints.com.

Once there, you will be able to download the computer file of the image if you’d like, and arrange to print it yourself. But you also will be able to order a 12x18” full-color laminated gloss photo print – ready to hang on the wall, but also suitable for framing – for just $7.50. Or, you can order a 12x18” full color poster paper print for as little as $4.00. In fact, you can order a poster paper print as large as 24x36” for just $16.

July 2015| 17


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DE SIGNC E N T E RN2329 State Road 22 | Waupaca, Wisconsin | 715.258.3333

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n 1948, Esther Williams was the star of a big MGM musi-

cal called “On An Island With You”. As with all her films, the script contrived to maximize the time the glamorous Million Dollar Mermaid could be seen wearing a swimsuit. The promotional posters played off the ever-popular male fantasy of being stranded on a deserted island with a beautiful girl, and the film was box office gold.

That same fantasy certainly must contribute to the long-standing fas-cination around the Chain O’Lakes with Ms. Williams’ tenuous connec-tion with tiny Crescent Island.

For many years, the boat captains on the Chief Waupaca would regale tourists with stories about how the wholesome superstar preferred the naturally clear waters of the Chain to the sterile, chlorine-scented swimming pools of Beverly Hills. This is another theme that Mid-westerners find hard to resist.

In June of 2013, Esther Williams took leave of this world at age 91. During her life, she had four husbands and made over two-dozen successful movies. But she retired from acting more than 50 years ago, and few people under 40 years old even recognize the name. In retrospect it seems fair to ask whether her connection to the Waupaca area was merely tabloid-style fiction – a gross exaggeration built upon a tiny germ of truth.

What we know for sure is that Ms. Williams was married to singer/actor Ben Gage from 1945 to 1959,

and that, as of their wedding date, Mr. Gage’s family owned Crescent Island – the picturesque little islet that separates Sunset and Rainbow lakes. We also know that, shortly after they were married, the cot-tage that had stood on the island burned down. The fire was a big enough story in Hollywood that the Los Angeles Times newspaper sent a reporter and photographer out to Wisconsin, but no great crime drama ensued.

Mr. Gage and Ms. Williams had three children together, and their divorce was bitter. Ms. Williams

characterized Mr. Gage (who died in 1978) as an alcoholic parasite who had squandered over $10 Mil-lion of her movie earnings.

The only conspicuous visit that Ms. Williams made to Waupaca oc-curred shortly after the cottage had burned. Still, there are credible long-time residents of the Chain who recall having personally seen Ms. Williams swimming between Crescent Island and Loyola Point. And if this were her sanctuary from the hubbub of Hollywood, she logi-cally would have kept a low profile in Wisconsin.

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Ultimately, however, the best evidence comes from Ms. Williams herself. In her 416-page 1999 autobiography she makes no mention at all of Wisconsin, Waupaca, or the Chain O’Lakes.

A few years after the fire, Hobie Edmunds – owner of the Edmunds Dock marina and tour boat business that preceded today’s Clear Water Harbor – bought the little island and put a mobile home on it.

For years, many summer residents and tourists at the Chain wondered how anyone could have floated a mobile home out to the island, without realizing that the waters of the Chain freeze up to three-feet thick in the winter, and many cottages have been moved from place to place across the ice over the years.

Eventually Edmunds sold the island (and a parcel adjacent to the Taylor Lake boat landing) to Camp Onaway. These days the campers refer to little Cres-cent Island as “Cub Island” and use it infrequently, mostly for tent camping by older campers. The small frame structure on the island today is seldom if ever occupied overnight, and is used primarily for storage.

The name “Cub” probably evolved as a corruption of the word “Club”. On the official state hydrographic survey of the Chain O’Lakes from 1898, the little is-land is designated as “Club Island”.

Indeed, at the dawn of the 20th Century the island was the infamous haunt of the “Bluegill Club” – a band of local Waupaca businessmen with a conspicu-ous appetite for fresh fish and good times.

The Bluegill Club boys may not have been as famous as Esther Williams, but they partied like rock stars. This photo of the gang circa 1908 is emblematic of the good-natured enthusiasm of the Chain’s early days.

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he little red one-room schoolhouse is empty once

again.At the Southwestern corner of

Hwy 54 and County Road Q, the former Barton School is no longer being used as the Town Hall for Farmington.

Since last November 13, the Town administration has been op-erating out of a brand new facility

that sits “kitty-corner” across Hwy 54 at the Northeastern corner. The official grand opening of the new town hall was held on December 14.

The proximity and juxtaposi-tion of the old and new buildings seems almost symbolic. It tends to give one pause to reflect upon the changes the Waupaca Chain O’Lakes area has experienced over the 100 years or so since the

Barton School was built.With the assistance of the

Waupaca Historical Society, Farm-ington officials have paid homage to that past by decorating the walls of the new office building with his-toric photographs.

The old red-brick school build-ing, together with a contemporary pole-building behind it, are listed for sale at $79,900. Unlike most abandoned school properties that go on the market, this place has modern up-to-date mechani-cal systems because of its recent usage as a municipal building. It’s also handicap accessible.

The new owner will, however, have to deal with some unusual neighbors: the occupants of the old Barton Cemetery. More than 100 graves lie just a few yards south of the old schoolhouse, many of them dating back to the 1800s. (The

KITTY CORNERED CATTY WOMPAST

y

The red schoolhouse that had been the Farmington Town Hall sits kitty corner from the new one at the intersection of Hwy. 54 and County Q. Some of the headstones in the historic cemetery next to the old Town Hall are a bit catty wompas.

July 2015| 25

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town maintains the historic cemetery.Over the next few years, it’s likely some people

may stop at the old school looking for the Farmington offices. After giving directions a few times, the new owner may start wondering: Where does that term “kitty-corner” come from anyway, and what does it really mean? Is it different from “cater-cornered” or “catty wompus”?

These colorful idioms are distinctly American. In England and Australia, the more explicit term “di-agonally opposite” is used rather than kitty-corner, catty-corner, catacorner, catercorner, caterways, caterwise, or cater-cornered – all of which are in popular usage and mean exactly the same thing. They reference the one quadrant which lies on the diagonal from any given quadrant established by the intersection of two perpendicular lines – typically, but not necessarily, roadways.

When you put it like that, it’s easy to see why we Americans came up with a short-hand expression.

The term apparently derives either from the Middle English word “cater” meaning four at dice; the Old French term “catre” simply meaning four; or the Latin word “quattuor”.

In the American south, it’s said that some people use the term catty-cornered to reference something that should be square but isn’t. We in northern states commonly use the term “Catty Wompus” [also, cat-erwumpus” or “kittywaupus”] in this regard (as do most folks down south). Like catercorner, the term seems to reference the geometry of four points as they appear on dice.

Those colorful Southerners, by the way, also employ the terms “Wompie-Jacked” and “Whopper-Jawed” as alternatives to Catty Wompus (which in some regions refers to a mountain lion).

All etymology aside, it’s a good bet that the old Bar-ton schoolhouse is the more catty wompus of the two Farmington structures that sit kitty corner at the Hwy. 54 and Q intersection.

Sandy Grenlie, the Town of Farmington’s Clerk and Treasurer, stands in the new front office and shows off framed photos of the former Barton School building that will hang in the new Town Hall.

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or four years from 2008 to 2011 the Chain O’Lakes

real estate market collapsed. But 2014 marked the third consecutive year when both buyers and sell-ers seemed to be in fairly close accord. Thirty-One bid-and-ask negotiations resulted in deals on Chain properties that closed last year.

About 35 lakefront sites are listed for sale around the lakes this spring. You can bet that in every case, the prospective sellers are wondering: What’s the New Nor-mal for Chain prices now that the recession is over?

A NewNormal?2014 Chain Sales Summary

F

by Steve Huhta

July 2015| 29

A NewNormal?

Prospective buyers are wonder-ing the same thing. And it appears that, in increasing numbers, they are engaging a Buyer’s Broker to help them determine the true cash value of the lakefront properties that attract their interest.

A dozen years ago, before the big real estate boom and bust, buyers and sellers both seemed to recognize that the Rule of Thumb for Chain O’Lakes real estate was around $3,500 per frontage foot (plus the reasonable value of the cottage or lake home). Of course, they also understood that the value of any particular parcel needed to

100%

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Chain Properties Sold Over $450,000Selling price compared to Tax Bill Fair Market Assessment

2007

120%

2012 2013 2014

114% 112% 114%

120%

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40%

Chain Properties Sold Under $450,000Selling price compared to Tax Bill Fair Market Assessment

104%

73%86% 95%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

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15

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0

Waupaca Chain Number of Properties Sold

15 R E C E S S I O N7-8

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18

31

* 12 closed in 2014 so far and 4 closings pending

2007 2012 2013 2014

be adjusted up or down, based on its specific attributes.

The beauty of an established Rule of Thumb was that almost every property had some positive and some negative characteris-tics. In an ambiguous way, they tended to cancel out and the Rule of Thumb prevailed.

But Rule of Thumb valuation only works when prices were stable. In a steady market, buyers and sellers can look at several years of recent transactions, and usually find two or more that were truly “comparable” – both in terms of

checklist features and gut feel. These comparisons helped the parties assign an economic value to the adjustment from the Rule of Thumb that was appropriate for the circumstances.

While 2014 was the third rela-tively good year in a row, there’s still no stable platform that can be used as a basis to generalize about current and future values. There’s no “New Normal” yet. While both sellers and buyers are encouraged that the Great Reces-sion seems to be over, they are cautious and hesitant.


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Like so many things in the 21st Century, ascertaining a fair value for real estate has become very compli-cated – especially regarding lakefront properties where there are so many more factors to weigh and consider. It’s no wonder that ever-higher per-centages of lake property buyers are engaging their own brokers to guide them through the process.

This trend will undoubtedly con-tinue through 2015 and beyond. It’s a Buyer’s Market, and the movement towards Buyer’s Brokers is evidence of it.

Here are some other bullet points from the listing and sales activity around the Chain in 2014:

1. For seller’s, it’s a bad idea to shoot for the moon. Many sellers in 2007 and 2008 demanded that bro-kers set listing prices way above what their brokers suggested because there were so many rumors circulating about the crazy prices some buyers were paying. This introduced a lot of noise into the market, and resulted in

100%

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2007

120%

2012 2013 2014

114% 112% 114%

120%

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104%

73%86% 95%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

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20

15

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5

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15 R E C E S S I O N7-8

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18

31


2007 2012 2013 2014

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2007

120%

2012 2013 2014

114% 112% 114%

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0%

40%


104%

73%86% 95%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

25

30

20

15

10

5

0


15 R E C E S S I O N7-8

24

18

31


2007 2012 2013 2014

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big price reductions and expired listings that made some great properties seem like damaged goods.

2. The “market value” assigned by the tax asses-sor is probably low for any property worth more than $450,000. In 2013, six out of seven high-end trans-actions closed at prices over the assessed value. In 2014, it this happened eight out of ten times. Because assessors determine market values in bulk, they must rely on a Rule of Thumb approach. For prop-erties that sold under $450,000 during the last two years, the assessor’s assignment of market value was consistently above the closing price in actual Chain O’Lakes transactions.

3. The quality of lake frontage is more important than ever. Having a place to set up a dock and a boat hoist is crucial, of course. But increasing appetites for bigger boats and a wider variety of on-the-water options (paddle boards, PWCs, peddle kayaks, etc.)

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means that there’s a lot of demand for parking spaces on the shore, and more time spent standing in the shallow water.

4. The “building envelope” has taken on greater significance. When people were building small cot-tages with dirt driveways, almost any lakeshore lot provided plenty of room. But with modern appetites for big lake homes and garages, and the rigors of new shoreland protection regulations and rules regarding impervious surfaces, both the current and future re-sale values of a given site can depend a great deal on the size and shape of the lot.

5. Structures are being valued more critically. The technical term used by appraisers is “functional ob-solescence”. When buyers were clamoring for lake properties back in 2004 to 2007, they were willing to overlook a lot of deficiencies in the cottage and the boathouse at a given site. Now, when the character-istics of older structures don’t conform with modern inclinations, buyers often apply a steep discount due to the shortcomings.

Whether you’re a prospective seller or buyer, you’ve got some hard decisions ahead of you. A real estate broker who’s an expert on the Chain O’Lakes can help steer you through the process.

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BATTLEBOATSBOATSBATTLE

of the

O

July 2015| 39

F or four full years after the cessation of hostilities in the

WW II, rancor and conflict persist-ed at the Chain O’Lakes. Each day at dawn, the placid waters seemed as idyllic as always. But as the early morning mist burned off, it be-came apparent that the lakes were surrounded by enemy factions, seething with aggression.

The focal point of all the acrimo-ny was the Chris Craft speedboat.

From 1941 thru 1945, the Chris Craft Corporation had been integral to the war effort, build-ing more than 12,000 patrol boats, utility launches and rescue vessels for the Navy. After the Japanese surrendered, the company re-sumed its position at the Number One manufacturer of recreational powerboats in America.

Many former servicemen, whose lives recently had depended on the speed and agility of powerful boats, were buying Chris Crafts as fast as the factory could make them.

Small, specialty boat compa-nies had been making mahogany boats with internal combustion engines since before Henry Ford started producing Model-Ts. But they hadn’t been more than an occasional curiosity at the Chain

It’s 1946. The Second World War is over. Our victorious G.I.’s have come home to Waupaca. But on the Chain O’Lakes . . .The Battle of the Boats rages on!

Balance of Power – The police couldn’t arrest a speedboater for going too fast unless they had a speedboat of their own.

by Ron Arthur


until the end of WW II, when they transformed the face of recreation on the nation’s inland waters.

Recreational pursuits on the Chain began around 1871. That’s when the railroad began service to Waupaca, and the first steam-boat began taking passengers on tours around the lakes north of In-dian Crossing. For almost 60 years, through the Roaring Twenties, almost every passenger launch was powered by steam, and all the personal pleasure boats were propelled by oars or paddles.

Then the Stock Market crashed in 1929, and the Great Depres-sion swallowed up the 1930s. World War II began in Europe with Hitler’s 1939 invasion of Poland. After Pearl Harbor was bombed in 1941, the U.S. joined in the conflict so intense it was known as Total War. From 1930 to 1945, virtually every sort of recreational activity in America was suspended.

But by 1946, the U.S. was flushed with victory, and ready for some fun. The preceding 15 years of depravation and distress were fading fast from memory, and the young men who’d been to war had an appetite for adventure, excite-ment, fast cars and . . . fast boats.

The counter faction was com-prised of people who tended to be older and more conservative. They employed their wealth and politi-cal connections to push through a state law that applied ONLY to the Waupaca Chain O’Lakes. It im-posed a speed limit on “gasoline power craft” of no more than 15 mph on the straightway and 6 mph in the channels.

This heavy-handed tactic (of questionable legality) escalated the conflict, and hardened the par-ties’ resolve on both sides. Passing such a law was one thing. Enforc-ing it turned out to be something else.

On July 15, 1947 more than 100 people crowded into the Amuse-ment Hall at the Veterans Home for a raucous ad hoc meeting on the new statute. It soon took an ugly turn as Town of Farmington Chair-man Floyd Taylor accused Frank Carey of nearly drowning “two elderly people” by overturning their boat with waves generated by his Chris Craft.

“Skipper” Carey was in the business of taking Edmunds Dock customers out for speedboat thrill rides. He calmly rose and denied the accusation. Then, as reported in the July 18, 1947 edition of a summertime newspaper called the Chain O’Lakes Guide (under a banner headline reading Meeting Attacks Speed Boats):

“Immediately, one of the large group of women present chal-lenged Carey’s denial by declar-ing emphatically that she was at a distance of only 35 feet at the time

July 2015| 41

of the mishap, that she knew it was Carey’s boat, and that he had not even looked back after the other boat capsized.”

As the acrimonious meeting unfolded, it was revealed that the presidents of the Cottage Owners’ Association of the Chain O’Lakes and of the Chain O’Lakes Protec-tive Association both recently had appeared before the County Board and sought it’s assistance to enforce the 15 mph speed limit.

It also turned out that the County Board had passed an ordinance prohibiting the operation of boats with engines larger than 5 ½ horsepower, although the State Attorney General had opined that the ordinance was illegal.

The Waupaca County District Attorney appeared and stated that if speeding arrests were made by the sheriff, he would prosecute. “If you bring 50 violators before me tomorrow I will prosecute 50,” he

declared.Then Leo Schubert was intro-

duced as the new Commodore of the Chain O’Lakes Boat Club. The news account states:

“Mr. Schubert admitted can-didly that he often exceeded the legal speed limit in his own Chris Craft. But it was his contention that these high-powered boats are so constructed that they are safer at a speed of 25 miles per hour than they would be at 15. He asked if the question were not more one of safety than of law, at which a loud negative response came from the audience.

“There was considerable further discussion of grievances such as speed boats splashing people on docks, refusing to slow down when passing fishermen, passing over spawning beds, and passing dan-gerously close to swimmers.”

The acrimonious controversy grew more intense as time went

on and more fast boats were launched on the Chain. The Sheriff ’s Department funded the acquisition of a Chris Craft for use as a patrol boat, and designed Art Krueger as the deputy in charge. In 1948, Krueger arrested “Skip-per” Cary on two occasions for speeding and reckless driving.

Various legal, legislative, and self-help maneuvers ensued. By 1949, the Town Boards at Farming-ton and Dayton dug in and adopt-ed ordinances that banned the use of water skis and “surf boards” on the Chain O’Lakes, and prohib-ited the use of any motor boat that hadn’t obtained a local license to operate.

In response, 28 Chain O’Lakes property owners filed a lawsuit seeking an injunction prohibiting the Towns from enforcing their speed-limit and boating ordi-nances.

In 1949, Frank Carey was found

The Chain O'Lakes used to have it's own newspaper. Published only during the summer months, it eventually was replaced by the Picture Post once the technology for taking and reproducing newspaper photographs developed sufficiently.


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innocent on all charges, the Judge stating: “The evidence in this case appears to be guess work. Wit-nesses disagreed as to distances, and the testimony was very confusing, making statements and later attempting to change them.”

After four years of bitter fighting and expensive legal maneuvers, it was finally becoming apparent to all that speed boating had become commonplace throughout the Midwest and would inevitability take hold at the Chain O’Lakes.

The last edition of the Chain O’Lakes Guide for the summer of 1949 led with this headline: Water Safety Rules Approved By Lakes In Mutual Concession. The story announced that a deal had been brokered by the Chamber of Commerce. Businessmen, it ap-peared, could recognize what the over-agitated com-batants were ignoring: The Chain’s uniquely harsh restrictions on water sports were bad for tourism and property values.

With minor alterations over the decades, the com-promise struck back in 1949 still governs the Chain O’Lakes today: The permitted waterskiing hours were 10 am to 4 pm weekdays on five lakes (includ-ing Sunset), but only 10 am to noon on weekends and holidays. The speed limit on the other lakes was set at 6 mph, and the use of motors was banned in Otter, Beasley, Bass and Orlando Lakes.

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uring the summer of 1891, Fred Smith began building

a summer resort on the western shore of Sunset Lake. He named it Brinsmere – a Scottish term mean-ing “top of the bluff” – and by the time the tourist season opened in 1892 he had the main hotel building and a separate dining hall ready to receive guests.

The resort flourished, operating successfully into the 1920s. But it fell into disuse and disrepair as the ascension of the automobile forever altered the patterns of tourism around Waupaca’s Chain O’Lakes.

The main hotel, which was set back from the lake, was demol-ished long ago. But the dining hall, with its grand two-story porch perched on the bluff overlooking the lakes and islands below, stead-fastly survived.

By the 1950s, it had become the summer home of the Furstenberg family, who chose to maintain the property, as much as possible, in its original condition. Unlike so many old structures around the

Chain, it never endured a “gut rehab” or an exterior makeover.

Indeed, in this photograph (be-low) taken last Labor Day week-end, the old dining hall looked

very much as it did in this historic panorama from around 1900.

In the old photo, one of the guest cottages is in the left foreground, and the hotel is in the center (to-

1891 2014D

In Memorium


brinsmere

July 2015| 45

wards the back).But after 123 years, Brinsmere is

gone forever, having been de-molished to clear the site for the construction of a lavish new lake home slated to be ready for oc-cupancy this summer.

Similar circumstances have led to the demise of many of the old structures around the lake. The Furstenberg family members had aged and scattered, and didn’t

use the place very often anymore. The old building, one considered quaint and rustic, became increas-ingly disparaged as antiquated and out-of-date.

Building materials and methods of the 1800s were primitive by today’s standards, and Fred Smith had never intended the struc-ture to stand for more than a few decades. By the 21st Century, Brinsmere’s floors sagged and the walls weren’t true. It’s doors and windows didn’t fit right. And it’s “modern” plumbing and electrical systems were mid-20th century retrofits.

Meanwhile, the real estate taxes

on the site (with its 150 feet of prime frontage) had turned into an annual burden in excess of $10,000, and maintenances ex-penses were high.

Consideration was given to pre-serving the old structure by mov-ing the building to a different loca-tion. Although possible in theory, the logistics were too complicated and the costs too high. Binsmere will have to live on only in memo-ries and photographs

The Brinsmere dining hall had been the second oldest surviving structure on the Chain. Only the Commandant’s Quarters at the Veterans Home (which dates back to 1888) is older than she was.

Moreover, Brinsmere held special notoriety for historians because Fred Smith’s verbal reminiscences were recorded by his niece, Ellen Moore, in the year prior to his death. They were published in 1947 and 1948 by the Waupaca County Post in a series called “When Chain O’Lakes Were Young”.

Questionable grammar aside, the serial articles provide valuable insights into what recreation was like around the Chain in the days when tourism was still a minis-cule component of Wisconsin’s economy.

Fred was born in 1866 as one of the six sons of William Smith, and grew up on Summit Hill Farm. The family farmhouse was located equidistant from Round Lake and Hicks Lake (now known as Sun-set Lake). His father reluctantly started taking in summer season boarders after the Chain’s first resort – The Greenwood Park Ho-tel – failed in 1885 (after just four seasons).

Fred had a knack for hospitality, and he could see that Summit Hill Farm was turning business away. His father gave him 60 acres as a wedding present including about 1,000 feet of frontage on Hicks Lake. In Fred’s own words, from his memoirs:

Minnie [Hansen] and I got mar-ried in March of 1891, and while I was building Brinsmere, we lived with the folks up on The Hill. We opened in the spring of ’92 and our place was filled the very first summer with people Father couldn’t take. And once they’d been there, they most always came back – some of them for many, many years. I’ve known families who came to our place with tiny babies the first time, and never missed a summer until those children were grown up!

CONTINUED ON PAGE 55

brinsmere

Right where the Brinsmere dining hall stood for more than 120 years, a beautiful new lake house is being built by Dan Wanty Construction. Perhaps it wil stand for another 120 years.


summer nightsA TRIBUTE TO

Fourth of July fireworks at the north shore of Round Lake have become a Chain tradition. But way to many boats crowd in to get a nice shot like this. We used a long exposure photo that Mark Mathu took from his family's cottage and Photoshopped in the fireworks.

July 2015| 47 July 2015| 47

Summer days,drifting away,but oh, oh thosesummer nights

A PHOTO ESSAY

summer nightsA TRIBUTE TO

— FROM GREASE, THE MUSICAL

During our long Wisconsin win-ters, most of our summer fantasies revolve around basking in the warmth of sunshine.

But, many of our most endearing and enduring summertime memo-ries actually are made after the sun goes down.

One of the great things about owning property on a lake is that your dock gives you unobstructed views of the sky and the surround-ing shore.

Your friends and neighbors often put on quite a show: bonfires down by the beach, sparklers used to carve shapes out of the darkness, bottle rockets, and decorative light-ing.

But all that pales in comparison to the show that Mother Nature puts on. When the moon is full and shining brightly, there’s nothing more romantic. And on moonless nights when the stars fill the sky you can see the Milky Way, and feel the immensity of the Universe.

This image of the Perseid meteor shower (which happens every year in mid-August) comes courtesy of Maxwell F. X. Palau, a/k/a StarDude Astronomy. His website (stardude.org) and Face-book page are geared towards making astronomy fun and interesting for the younger generation.


Some people enjoy searching the heavens for planets, satellites and constellations. If you’re lucky, you’ll get a chance to make a wish upon a falling star.

If it’s a stormy night, you may witness a spectacular display of lightning. In the city, we tend to regard thunder and lightning as a nuisance. But when we’re up at the lake, it can be fun to sit back and enjoy the show.

Taking your boat out after dark can be a blast. You get an even

better view of the skies above, and you can enjoy the lights and activi-ties you can see along the shore. If you take out your canoe, you can glide along without running lights. You might even catch some of your neighbors out skinny dipping!

When you’re boating in the dark, it’s difficult to grasp how different the Chain looks today, as com-pared to 100 years ago. Just before the dawn of the 20th century, flames provided the only source of light in the darkness. Open fires,

fireplaces, candles, torches, and kerosene lanterns were the best the times could offer.

It wasn’t until 1893 that Thomas Edison put his great invention – electric streetlights – on display at the World’s Columbian Exposi-tion in Chicago. Just six years later the Waupaca Electric Light and Railway Company built a power plant and ran electric lines out to the Veterans Home and the Grand View Hotel.

Those same transmission lines also powered an electric trolley that ran from the Waupaca train depot out to the Grand View. Power also was run to the shore at the commercial boat dock situated in the bay between the Vets Home and the hotel. Those first bright electric lights down by the water gleamed far more vividly than the kerosene lanterns on other docks, and the place became known as The Electric Dock.

Now, the site of the old Grand View, on Rainbow Lake’s southern shore, is one of the few dark areas remaining on the Chain O’Lakes. In comparison, the Veterans Home grounds glow so brightly you can see them from space.

If outer space is of interest to you, here are a few extraordinary things to look for in the night sky this summer:

• Venus (which has phases like the moon) will be full, bright and high in the sky. It will reach its maximal brilliancy on the evening of July 10.

• Venus and Jupiter will con-joint – that is, appear very close together – shortly after sunset on June 30 in the west-southwest sky. This "double planet" will, no doubt, produce a lot of UFO calls to the authorities.

• The annual Perseid meteor shower will peak on August 12, during a lunar phase close to the new moon. This means moonlight won’t wash out the sky like it did last year, obscuring the visibility of dimmer shooting stars.

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Visible clearly early this spring with the leaves still off the trees, this spectacular lake house sits on the western end of the north shore of Long Lake (in Waushara County). In fact, it sat there – unoccupied – for almost eight long years after being built in 2007.

July 2015| 55

T his winter, a 5,000+ sq. ft., never-occupied spec house

finally sold after remaining on the market nearly eight years.

Originally listed at $1.285 Mil-lion in the spring of 2007, the 5-bedroom, 3 ½-bath rustic-contemporary sits on a very steep lot with 100 feet of frontage on the Northeastern shore of Long Lake in Waushara County.

The timing could hardly have been worse. When the market collapsed in 2008, the asking price dropped quickly to $895,000 – which probably approximates the developer’s hard costs in the premium grade construction. The asking price lingered there for three years.

In 2011, the listed price was reduced to $775,000. The real estate taxes alone exceeded $14,000 per year. By 2013 the cedar exterior had weathered and required significant re-staining, mainte-nance, and cleaning. The asking price was reduced to $690,000. The listing price finally dropped to $675,000 in 2014, and in December the house sold substantially below that figure.

Long Lake straddles the townships of Springwater and Saxeville. It’s 272 acres in size, or two-and-a-half times as big as the Long Lake on the Chain. Its marl bottom gives it the same beautiful blue-green hue as lakes on the Chain. Historically, prop-erty values there have been compa-rable to the Chain O’Lakes, although perhaps 10 to 15% lower.

That said, this particular property has some of the worst frontage on the Long Lake. The steep lot provided for a walk-out lower level, a great balcony deck, and three-stories of southern exposure, but it also required a long, steep stairway to the shore. At the far end of the lake where this property sits, the water is quite shallow and the bottom is mucky.

The original asking price reflected the euphoria of a real estate market that had been booming in 2005 and 2006, and wasn’t tethered to the hard costs of con-struction. It must have seemed realistic at the time.

Holding costs – real estate taxes, utili-ties, maintenance, and interest expenses – certainly exceeded $300,000 over the 90+


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months the property was up for sale. The final net to the developers would have been in the neighborhood of half of their overall out-of-pocket costs.

On the Chain, a similar story played out at N2775 Locksley Lane on Round Lake. That property also was first listed in 2007 at a comparably ambitious price of $1.25 Million. It sold this spring well below the final listing price of $830,00. At least it was occupied and enjoyed by its owners during the interim.

This property also sits high on the bluff above 100 feet of frontage. But here the sand bottom and water depth are excellent. Approximately 40 years old, the Locksley Lane property was only about 3,200 square feet and lacked the panache and premium finishes of the house on Long Lake. Still, the final discount of near-ly a half-million dollars off the 2007 listed price seems to confirm that the Long Lake experience reflects a widespread market correction.

Further evidence comes from a sale this spring of a property at N2671 Pleasant Park Lane on Limekiln Lake. This 20-year-old 3,233 sq. ft. home originally was listed in the fall of 2008 at $795,000. The selling price was significantly below the final asking price of $499,900.

All three of these high-end lake homes remained on the market from the crash of 2008 to the beginning of 2015, and sold at discounts of 39 to 51% from the origi-nal listing price.

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It was easier to handle people then. When they came to these lakes they didn’t expect the world with a fence around it. If they had good beds and good food and a lot of fun, that seemed to be about all they wanted. There was no such thing as transient trade then. All of our people were from the south, and they came by train, with their trunks, and stayed all sum-mer. They didn’t miss electric lights or running water or inside toilets. Those things would have spoiled a vacation up here then.

Fred Smith’s recollections often rambled in a folksy way. As such, modern readers may find them a bit slow-moving and cumbersome. But if you’d like to check out the When Chain O’Lakes Were Young series yourself, you can get it at the Waupaca Historical So-ciety, or on-line in the Waupaca History Section of the Main Street Marketplace website, at www.mainstreet-marketplace.com.

In the summer of 1893, the Smith family’s fortunes took a turn as the Summit Hill farmhouse burned down. William Smith (Fred’s father) moved down to the eastern shore of Round Lake and built a resort hotel that he named Locksley Hall (later known as Locksley Lodge). It opened in the spring of 1894, and over the next few years he added 10 guest cottages along the shoreline.

Although located on the shores of distant lakes, the two hotels were really less than 1,200 yards apart, as the crow flies. Fred’s brother Edwin helped manage Locksley with his father and eventually succeeded him. There’s no indication that any members of the Smith family ever competed or quarreled with one another. They were natural born hosts.

Locksley Lodge has been remodeled and updated, but still retains much the same exterior configuration as when it was the third hotel built on the Chain. It now moves up to the status of the second oldest sur-viving structure on the Chain O’Lakes.

This excerpt from a famous 1911 map of the Chain shows Brinsmere prominently (as well as William Smith’s Summit Hill Farm and Locksley Hall.

BRINSMERE | CONTINUED FROM PAGE 45


Elsewhere in this magazine, you’ll find articles about Waupaca-area lakefront property sales that occurred during the past two years.

Owners of such real estate (and potential future owners) always pay close attention to reports of this nature. The thing is, they’re not really so much interested in learning about what’s already hap-pened. The real reason they’re so attentive is that they believe the facts and figures will apprise them about what’s going to happen.

Certainly, there’s some logic to this. But then, the runaway escala-tion of real estate prices in 2006 and 2007 did a lousy job of fore-casting what was going to happen in 2008. And the sales statistics from 2009, 2010 and 2011, didn’t provide much enlightenment about the prices actually seen in the marketplace during the past three years.

It turns out that past events are only good indicators of future events when markets are stable. In times of stability, pretty much everyone can make sense of prevailing real estate prices on an intuitive basis. But when chaos reigns – rapid transitions from boom to bust and back, brisk inflation, dramatic deflation, sharp stratification of markets, etc. – it takes a professional approach to achieve any meaningful insight.

In the wake of the Great Reces-sion, economists all over America have been asked to analyze the situation and provide their opin-ions. Real estate markets are

infamously local, and broad-brush analytical summaries given for a broad region like the Midwest (or the entire country) are seldom meaningful in the context of a par-ticular locale.

So I’ve been asked by the pub-lisher of this magazine to examine the Chain O’Lakes market with the rigor of an economist. It’s not a glamorous task, and the proc-ess doesn’t make for pithy “sound bites”.

Moreover, specific prognostica-tions often miss the mark because markets are complex and fluid. On the other hand, when it comes to predicting the future, econo-mists are the only serious players. Ultimately, we may be wrong, but at least we will have had a good reason for making our predictions.

So, if you’re ready to look at the lakefront property market from a dif-ferent perspective, please read on.

The OLD EconomicsThe behavior of owning a vaca-

tion lake cottage did not take hold in the American Middle Class until after World War II. Our national economy boomed while Europe and Asia worked to rebuild after the war. America’s Great Depres-sion of the 1930s receded into memory as inexpensive automo-biles and cheap gasoline empow-ered a mass movement into the suburbs and beyond.

Plenty of men had hands-on con-struction experience from the war effort, and many of the early lake cottages in Wisconsin were do-it-yourself projects. The lots were

small and inexpensive. Rowboats and canoes were good enough for most returning veterans and their young families, who were content roasting wieners and marshmal-lows over an open campfire.

Most of these folks devoted their entire recreation budgets to their summertime cottages. Pride of ownership spurred them to build or improve their cottages with their own labor, thus build-ing “sweat equity”. They paid both their acquisition costs and their vacation property operating expenses comfortably out of the wages a husband could earn from a manufacturing job.

This phase of the old economics lasted about 25-years, from 1945 to 1970. By the end of that period, the 25 to 35-year old soldiers who had returned from war were 50 to 60 years old. The children they had raised at the lake were now grown and starting families of their own. A new 25-year cycle was beginning.

From 1970 to 1995, young people who had loved the sim-ple pleasures of their childhood summers at the cottage with lots of siblings wanted to replicate the environment for their own one or two children. Sometimes they va-cationed at the old family cottage, but often they bought a separate place.

These young adults were Baby Boomers (born between 1945 and 1964). By this time, mort-gages were available on second homes, and Boomer couples had two incomes to support a sum-

By Haley Hamilton Haley is a Wisconsin girl who grew up in Lake Geneva and studied at prestigious Wellesley College in Massachusetts. She now lives in Manhattan where she is a Senior Vice President at the Royal Bank of Canada.

The NEW Economics ofLake Property Ownership

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mer cottage and plenty of other recreational pursuits. They had education, ambition, prosperity – and inflation.

From 1955 to 1965, the inflation rate in America averaged less than 2% per year. But from 1973 to 1983 it averaged almost 10% per year. From 1979 to 1982, inflation roared at almost 12% per year. Mortgage rates shot up as high as 18% per annum. And when infla-tion dropped back down to 2% for 1986, people realized that the market value of lake cottages had almost doubled during the prior decade.

For Baby Boomers who’d grown up at the lake, the inflation decade spawned the myth that lake prop-erties were a win-win proposition – and Boomers got to keep both wins! It seemed obvious that lake properties were simultaneously (1) fun, nostalgic, and family-oriented private playgrounds, and (2) great money-making investments!

For a while, at least, this myth became a self-fulfilling prophecy. So many Boomers wanted to get in on the win-win deal that they cre-ated their own boom in the market for lake real estate. As they bid against each other, they drove prices up. And as market prices rose, they doubled-down and spent money to remodel the rustic seasonal lake cottages into bigger, better year-round retreats.

Around 1995, the third genera-tion of American lake property ownership began. It’s defining characteristic is inheritance. The parents of the Baby Boomers – born during the 1920s and 30s and known now as the “Greatest Generation” – grew up during the Great Depression. They were more frugal than their offspring, and as they reached the ends of their lives they bequeathed an estimated $12 Trillion of wealth to their children.

(Of course, this intergenerational transfer actually began in the 1980s and is still going on to some extent. Tidy 25-year generational

divisions are merely generaliza-tions of the sort we economists use to make complex data more comprehensible. With respect to lake properties, the point is that inheritance is the fuel that has fed the fire since 1995, as aging Baby Boomers have been tearing down old cottages and building ever more resplendent lake homes.)

For a generation that had known nothing but national economic prosperity, was flush with free money, had personally experi-enced the win-win magic of lake property ownership, and had a hankering to cling to the good old days, investing an inheritance in a lake home appeared to make per-fect sense . . . right up until 2008.

The NEW EconomicsYou may have noticed that the

preceding description of The Old Economics described three 25-year cycles of lake property ownership, but only two age-group generations – the Greatest Gen-eration and the Baby Boomers. So far, the Boomers and their Parents alone have created and sustained the market for lake properties. But the market soon will be defined by the Baby Boomers’ own babies – the so-called Generation X and/or Millennials.

Although Boomers always have conducted themselves as if they would live forever, the proposition already is proving fallacious. In January, the Pew Research Center released a report using 2013 data that indicates there are only 80-Million Baby Boomers left in America, but about 135-Million of their kids.

Since Boomers, by definition, were born between 1945 and 1964, the oldest members of the cohort reached 70 years old as of 2015, and the youngest are 51. Some Boomers on the “young” end of the scale are still buying lake real estate – perhaps as an exclamation point to confirm that they’ve finally attained everything to which they could aspire, and

perhaps as a dream house where they can live out their days.

But five years from now, when the fourth 25-year cycle of lake property ownership begins in the year 2020, the Baby Boomers will make up a small and rapidly decreasing percentage of the pool of potential real estate buyers. If there is going to be a market demand for lake property in 2020 and beyond, it’s going to have to come from Gen-X and Millennial buyers.

Boomers bought lake property in large part because they be-lieved it was a can’t-lose proposi-tion. Between the Great Depres-sion and the Great Recession, national economic downturns were mere hiccups. There were no examples similar to what we’ve observed over the 10 years, with Wisconsin lakefront proper-ties stagnating on the market for nearly a decade, and then selling for less than half of their original asking price.

Back in 1970, when Baby Boom-ers were young, the $50,000 cost of a lake cottage was often well below one-year’s salary for the two-income family. But $500,000 lake houses have priced the vast majority of Gen-Xers and Millenni-als out of the market.

The on-going trend towards Mil-lion Dollar Lake Mansions around the Chain demonstrates that afflu-ent Baby Boomers are still will-ing to double down on their lake property bets.

The crucial question now is this: Will that small percentage of upper-tier post-Boomers who can afford an expensive lake property be willing to take the same risk? Put another way, how will post-Boomers view the two elements of the Win-Win Myth that has fueled the Baby Boomers’ lake property boom since 1970?

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although they’ve certainly expe-rienced it. Its most simple form is readily apparent at the grocery store when a shopper decides to substitute Jif peanut butter for their preferred Skippy brand because the Jif is on sale.

While the example is trivial, the concept becomes more interest-ing at higher levels of abstraction. In real estate, a buyer might have a preference for a four-bedroom house, but be willing to accept (substitute) a three-bedroom house for the right price. Or, at another level of abstraction, where the conceptual framework is “liv-ing space” rather than “house”, a buyer might have a preference for renting, but would be willing to buy a condo instead under the right circumstances.

According to academic analysis, for any commodity, other products represent equivalent value to any given customer, at the right price. At that price point, consumers become ambivalent and are read-ily willing to substitute one for the other.

The only time Baby Boomers saw an investment opportunity that surpassed the Win-Win benefits of owning lake property was dur-ing the Internet Bubble when the Nasdaq index rose from under 1,000 to over 5,000 between 1995 and 2000.

But when that bubble burst, lake property looked better than ever. Competing refugees from the stock market again bid up the prices of lake property from 2000 through 2007. There was no equivalent, substitutable invest-ment in their minds.

To predict whether post-Boom-ers will feel the same way, the key is to determine the correct level of abstraction and the proper methodology for cost accounting. These things are not the same for everyone, but they are likely to be consistent across a broad major-ity of the members of a particular generation. Of special signifi-cance here is the vague value

different generations place on the “psychic” or emotional benefits imputed to real estate.

Baby Boomers, for example, placed a high value on living in the suburbs. Post-Boomers so far seem much more inclined to reside in cities. If this holds, economists foresee a collapse in the price of McMansions as their owners get wheeled off into Nurs-ing Homes.

But regarding lake properties, this is more than just a matter of taste.

The hard numbers also differ between generations, in two im-portant ways: First, it is no longer rational to factor in (explicitly or implicitly) an increase in prop-erty value attributable simply to the passage of time. Second, the holding cost for an expensive lake home is much greater than for a modestly-priced summer cottage.

Accounting methodology reduces the analysis to “cost-per-unit” equivalency. In this case, the “unit” is one day (and night) of recreation. In the case of a vaca-tion home lake property, the proc-ess involves adding up all of the expenses associated with owner-ship and maintenance and divid-ing the total by the number of days that the property is used. (Note: A more complete accounting would produce a cost-per-person-per-day value using the number of overnight guests occupying the premises each day as the divisor.)

Admittedly, few lake property owners have ever taken the time to carefully perform such a calcula-tion, much less compare the result objectively to a specific alternative like booking an equivalent number of rooms at a resort that offers comparable amenities.

But normal people (i.e. non-economists) routinely perform similar approximate calculations in their heads, using rough estimates instead of precise values. That’s how we decide whether to go shopping for a Chevy or a BMW.

Because of the Win-Win Myth, most Baby Boomers avoided this analysis, even in rough approxima-tion. Their calculation was simple: Whatever the annual holding costs may be, the annual appreciation on my lake property will be greater. Thus, as long as I can afford to pay the out-of-pocket costs (even if that requires a second-mortgage on my primary residence) all of the pleasures of having a vacation home at the lake are essentially free.

Post-Boomers RuleBaby Boomers have always

seemed to feel that everyone else thinks like them, or at least should think like them.

And so far, at least, the lake property phenomenon has been all about the Boomers. It started because the Boomers’ parents had a vision of an idyllic family life where the kids had a big subur-ban backyard to play in during the school year, and a lake cottage to enjoy during summer vacation. Then the young Boomers applied their signature move – bigger and better; and the old Boomers’ ap-proach so far has been more of the same. But is this much “bigger” really better?

As is clearly visible around Waupaca’s Chain O’Lakes, the Boomers have squeezed out rental cottages and seasonal cabins in favor of large lake homes that are costly to buy and expensive to own and maintain. Annual property tax bills in excess of $10,000 are now common around the Chain, and the cost of money at 5% per year on a $500,000 property is $25,000 (regardless of whether it is an out-of-pocket expense or the income lost from alternative investments foregone).

Assuming a Millennial inherits such a place, but lives out of state and only can make it back to the Lake 10-days out of the year, those two expenses alone (without con-sidering the considerable annual

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maintenance, insurance, and utility expenses associ-ated with lake property) translate into a cost per day of $3,500. That’s $7,000 for a weekend (not counting the family’s travel expenses).

Post-Boomers have lots of recreational options, and enjoy the freedom to travel to enchanting vacation spots all around the world. For $7,000 a family can spend a week in Hawaii or the Caribbean or Europe. For $35,000 they can . . .

The new economics of lake ownership won’t kick in magically on January 1, 2020. The transition has already started, and will go on for decades. There’s a certain amount of market inertia that’s difficult to predict, and many Boomers are living to ripe old ages. The intergenerational wealth transfer from Baby Boomers to their babies is estimated to exceed $30 Trillion. It’s always difficult to predict what people will do with a windfall – especially a windfall so large.

It’s possible that post-Boomers (at least those with parents who owned lake property) will buy into the Win-Win Myth because they learned it from Mom and Dad. Still, if they get into an economic pinch, will they feel the emotional attachment to hold onto the lake house until they’re totally out of options? And if they do want to sell, who’s going to be ready, willing and able to buy?

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You recently wrote a book about the history of the Chain O’Lakes. How did that come about?

By 2012, I was out of the real estate development business and looking to regroup after the market collapsed in 2008. I took up full-time residence on Long Lake in Waushara County, which is about 10 miles south of the Long Lake on the Chain. I used to own a summer cottage there, so I’ve been familiar with the area for over 40 years. When I heard Clear Water Harbor was looking for a part-time captain to give tours on the Chief Waupaca sternwheeler, it sounded like fun. The book grew out of the script I was given to read over the P.A. system while looping passengers around the lakes north of Indian Crossing.

How did you go from a script to a book?

My bachelor’s degree from UW-Madison is in journalism. I wrote for newspapers and magazines before getting into real estate, so I knew how to tell a story. The cruise is only 90 minutes long and the script could just scratch the surface. I went to the His-torical Society to dig deeper and one thing led to another. Now I’m not only the author of a book, I’m on the Board at the Historical Society.

What’s the title of the book?

A Concise Guide to Historic Sites on Waupaca’s Chain O’Lakes.

So, it’s a history book?

Not really. It’s certainly not the sort of history book you imagine when you think of a library or classroom. It’s a travel guide to a place of historic significance. It’s mostly sold through lo-cal gift shops as a souvenir. It’s under 100 pages and full of old photos and maps. There’s a lot of information in it – including things I’ve never seen published anywhere else – but the style is relaxed and it’s a quick read.

Can you give an example of something never published elsewhere?

It took me a long time to figure out how Lake George got its name. In fact, the origins of the names for all 21 lakes became the main theme of the book. When I was Captain Ron, we’d tell the passengers the names of the lakes we were

passing through, but we’d never explain how come they were called that. For example, we’d get to Limekiln Lake, point and say the name, and pretty much leave it at that.

Presumably it has something to do with a limekiln, right?

Well, yes. But it’s unlikely that 1 out of 100 of my passen-gers had any idea what limekilns looked like or what they were used for. Frankly, neither did I when I started giving tours. Once I found that out, I searched for ruins of an old limekiln along the shores but couldn’t find anything. I finally was able to spot its former location on a map from 1896.

A fair percentage of Chain property owners know that it’s a substance called marl in the bottom sands that gives these waters their distinctive blue green color. But only a few realize that the chemical composition of marl is simply cal-cium carbonate – exactly the same as lime. In the 1800s, a company used to dredge the western shallows of Limekiln Lake and dry out the mucky marl using a big wood-fired kiln. The resulting lime powder was an essential ingredient in both concrete and brick-mortar. Some of the pits from the dredging are still visible under water.

Interesting. So what’s the story with George Lake?

To paraphrase the first President Bush: “Read my book. No new nexus.” It takes about 100 pages for me to detail the connections between lake names and Chain history. It’s all

INTERVIEWRon ArthurRon Arthurl

At a book signing by Main Street Marketplace during last year’s Strawberry Fest.

July 2015| 67

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in my book, for just $15. But I can tell you here that the key to solving the mystery is to recognize that earliest maps referenced it as “Lake George” rather than “George Lake”. I can also tell you that the names Sunset, Rain-bow, Nessling and Columbia all have intriguing backstories.

Are you writing anything else about Waupaca and/or the Chain O’Lakes these days?

The Concise Guide is going to remain in print, but I’ve also streamlined the content and the physical size for a new book. It’s called the Pocket Guide to Historic Sites of Waupaca’s Chain O’Lakes. It literally fits into your pocket. The back cover contains a map from 1911 on which historic sites have been numbered in order. This makes it easy to find the relevant in-formation inside at the same number. There’s also an “EZ-Read” version of the pocket guide aimed towards young people like the campers out on Onaway Island. The idea is that you

can take the guide out in a boat and use it to learn about the places along the shore.

What else are you working on of interest to Chain residents?

Besides this magazine? Well, through researching my books I discovered a variety of old maps and other histori-cal images of Chain O’Lakes tourism from Victorian times. Because I’ve kept up to speed on the computer applications involved in modern digi-tal publishing, I was able to put these skills to use in creating artistic prints of these maps and images, suitable for framing. For the past year or so, they’ve been available for sale at major gift shops in the area including Cate & Company, Main Street Mar-ketplace and The Red Mill.

Also, last year I did several cus-tom prints for people with cottages around the Chain. Starting with one of the historic maps, I integrated over-lays using old photos from the cli-

ents’ personal family collection. This allowed long-time lake residents with historic cottages to hang a piece of art that embodied both the history of the Chain O’Lakes and their own fam-ily history of vacationing at the Chain. I’m interested in experimenting more with this kind of project this summer, with the objective of developing the best way to produce these family-oriented works of art at a reasonable price. If any Chain residents with an album of old photos are interested in working with me on such a project, I hope they’ll contact me through this magazine so we can see if there’s a way to do this that works well for everyone.

Are you still conducting tours on the Chief Waupaca?

It looks like I’ll be doing a few special-ty tours for history buffs where I go deep into the Chain’s past. But I’m no longer doing the narrated public tours or the regular private charters.


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en homes on the Chain closed escrow between

January 1st and June 12th this year. That’s the exact same number as in the first five months last year.

As of June 1st, there were ap-proximately 35 Chain O’Lakes homes on the market. That com-pares to 54 Chain homes being for sale at the peak of the recession in 2009.

There are indications both buy-ers and sellers are coming to grips with the post-recession market prices of lake homes. A Wing Span condo unit sold in January after having been on the market for sev-eral years. A Round Lake property, originally listed for $1.25 Million 2007, sold in March at a discount of about 40%. And a Limekiln Lake house also closed this spring at

about 60% of its 2008 asking price. [See more details in the article

in this magazine entitled Half Price Sale.]

An owner with a Chain property to sell recently interviewed three local Realtors before selecting Ste-ve Huhta and Re/Max Lyons Real Estate to handle the listing. The deciding factor apparently was the unique and creative marketing plan Steve presented, designed specifically for that property.

This new magazine represents just one of the extraordinary ways that Steve connects with waterfront property owners. He also works on the cutting edge of Internet expo-sure and social media.

But its not all about cell phones and computers. Sometimes the process of selling a lake property

requires years of planning and preparation. Steve’s in it for the long haul, so feel free to contact him for advice and suggestions, even if the sale (or purchase) you’re contemplating is still years away.

In the meantime, stay in touch with Chain O’Lakes trends and happenings by following these blogs and websites:

www.WaupacaChain.Infofor loads of information about happenings. www.WaupacaWaterFront.comfor a complete list of all Chain and other area water skiing lake properties for sale and sold. www.Facebook.com/Waupaca ChainOLakesfor even more Chain news and info.

2015 Chain Property SalesOff to a Great StartT

July 2015| 69

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If you don’t know Mike Kirk by name, you probably still recog-nize him as the guy who often drives his 1926 Model T truck in parades or puts it on display in antique car shows. Or maybe you know him as the man who saved the Waupaca train depot from demolition, then worked tirelessly to restore it to its former glory. He’s been an active member of the Board of Directors at the Waupaca Historical Society for decades, and is a modern day Renaissance Man with seemingly boundless energy and enthusiasm. His family cottage is on the north shore of Sunset Lake. In Au-gust of 2009, Mike paddled his canoe the entire length of the Chain, some 3 ½ miles, from the cottage all the way down to Marl Lake. He says it took a good hour and a quarter. When he finally made it, he got out to stretch his legs and snapped the idyllic image that graces the cover of our inaugural issue.

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Waupaca Chain O Lakes Magazine July 2015

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Transcript of Waupaca Chain O Lakes Magazine July 2015