WATER MANAGEMENT IN IRAQ...Iraq’s Climate Prospects Require Greater Coordination With Its...

Since the 1950s, Iraq and its “Fertile Crescent”

neighbors have experienced substantial changes in

weather patterns. These disruptions are expected

to continue—USAID and the World Bank anticipate

average annual temperature to increase around 3.6°

Fahrenheit (F) by 2050, accompanied by a 9 percent

decrease in average annual rainfall and a 22 percent

decrease in available runoff.1 Rising temperatures

and increased rainfall variability will intensify periods

of drought, reduce the availability of ground and

surface water, and increase the desertification

of arable land—crises that are compounded by

upstream dam construction in neighboring countries,

overconsumption of water, and persistent conflict.

This climate trajectory promises negative impacts on

Iraq’s agricultural production, human health, energy

extraction, and overall stability.

This issue of Maxar Spotlight highlights Iraq’s complex

climate-related challenges, and demonstrates

how Maxar Technologies’ satellite observations,

sophisticated automation, and advanced modeling tools

can augment climate forecasts, water management

policies, and infrastructure development.

Summary of Unique Tools & Applications

Global Weather Interactive (GWI) / Weather Desk™

GWI is an application within Weather Desk™, which serves

as the industry’s leading archive of global historical weather

information. GWI provides custom access to over 900 domestic

and 6,000 international weather stations for analysis of

temperature extrema, precipitation, and derived parameters

such as average temperature, average precipitation, and normal

departures for each.

Intermittent Water

Maxar’s Intermittent Water dataset uses Landsat imagery to

measure the change (30+ years) in observed water over a given

area. For this study, Intermittent Water was used to evaluate the

impact of climate change on Razazza Lake—an important source

for irrigation channels that feed Baghdad’s agriculture.

BaseVue

BaseVue is a standard global land cover dataset based on

Landsat, Sentinel-2, and Maxar imagery. BaseVue uses multi-

temporal, semi-automated classification to map cloud-free land

use land cover. For this study, agriculture land classification was

used to isolate satellite-detected wildfires over agriculture fields

for statistical modeling and hot spot analysis.

CLIMATE CHANGE Requires IMPROVED WATER MANAGEMENT IN IRAQ

Iraq Climate Projections

Key Climate Impacts

1 CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (Climate Knowledge Portal, the World Bank)

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S P O T L I G H T

Iraq’s Climate Future: More Frequent Droughts, Water Shortages

Climate trend analysis from Global Weather Interactive

(GWI), an application within Maxar’s Weather Desk™

platform, projects decreased water availability for Iraq and

the surrounding region in the years to come. According

to analysis of 5-year and 30-year temperature and

precipitation data compiled from 13 weather stations across

the country, Iraq is experiencing consistently warmer

temperatures throughout the year with much hotter and

drier summers.

Rainfall trends are especially volatile. While rainfall averages

are up in recent years, this is due to intense and sporadic

rainfall events in certain parts of the country (most notably

in central and northeastern Iraq). Overall, water availability

is declining and demand is growing. These prospects are

concerning for a country that has struggled with multiple

conflicts, poor water management policies, and deficient

infrastructure.

temperature (°F) and Rainfall (Inches) averages: 5-year and 30-year comparison

30 Year Avg. Temperature

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20

40

60

80

100

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Tem

pera

ture

(°F

)R

ainfall (in.)

5 Year Avg. Temperature 30 Year Avg. Rainfall 5 Year Avg. Rainfall

Dried up irrigation channel in southern Iraq (The National)

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S P O T L I G H T

Iraq’s Climate Prospects Require Greater Coordination With Its Neighbors

The majority of Iraq’s water resources are provided by the

Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Approximately 71 percent of the

two rivers’ discharge originates in Turkey, with an additional

7 percent from Iran and 4 percent from Syria. Only about

18 percent originates from watersheds located within

Iraq. To arrive at a comprehensive regional solution, donor

governments should consider a legislative framework for

riparian resource sharing between Turkey, Syria, Iran, and

Iraq. Increasing water shortages in downstream countries

and the environmental degradation that they’ve caused has

suggest the need for a robust diplomatic solution.

Water shortages in Iraq began in the 1970s, when Turkey

completed the first series of several dam projects on the

Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Based on 2018 estimates by

Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources, the country has lost

approximately 30 percent of water volume previously

received from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and should

anticipate the loss of up to 50 percent of its riparian

resources as soon as 2030. The most significant dam

construction on the Tigris and Euphrates consists of

Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) in southeastern Turkey. In

addition, Iran has significantly blocked, dammed, or diverted

three of the four major rivers it shares with Iraq.

Winter and spring are historically wet seasons in Kurdistan;

this intense rainfall is, however, difficult to harvest due

to northern Iraq’s low water storage capacity. Regional

experts warn that increased dam construction may not

represent a durable solution that warrants the negative

environmental and socio-economic issues associated with

new dams. Because of these diverse obstacles and water

challenges, decentralized and small-scale projects may

be more beneficial for water management in this region

including rain harvesting ponds, micro and submerged

dams, and water recycling plants.

One particular area that has experienced a significant

decline in water availability is Razazza Lake, located west

of Baghdad. Along with nearby Tharthar and Habbaniyah

Lakes, Razazza has been collecting rainwater and providing

irrigation channels to Baghdad’s agriculture for decades.

But the effects of climate change have impacted the area’s

water availability—and as such, more water is being pulled

from the lake system than is input. New channels have been

created to try and also preserve the fishing in Razazza

Lake, but droughts have been devastating.

Maxar’s Intermittent Water capability demonstrates how

satellite observations can be used to measure the impact of

climate change over a given area. The imagery time series

showcases the visual change to Razazza Lake between 1984

and 2013. The Intermittent Water layer displays the severity

of water loss over time by providing a measurement of how

often water was detected with each ground observation

over the past 30 years.

REGIONAL DAMS ALONG TIGRIS andEUPHRATES RIVERs AND TRIBUTARIES

4

S P O T L I G H T

Dam Under Construction

Dam

Euphrates River

Tigris RiverIRAQ

Turkey

IranSyria

unique REGIONAL impacts of Rainfall Variability Across Iraq

Decades of intensive farming practices and poorly managed

water resources in Iraq—a nation which is more than 30

percent desert to begin with—have exacerbated water

shortages, reduced availability of ground and surface water,

and increased desertification of arable land. According to the

Iraqi government, over 100,000 donum (or around 25,000

acres) are lost each year to degradation. The impact of

droughts on the agricultural sector’s performance are viewed

as a primary driver of rural-to-urban migration and internal

displacement, particularly in western and southern Iraq.

Maxar’s GWI application and Weather Desk™ platform was

used to plot 5-year and 30-year averages across Iraq. This

analysis revealed that northeast Iraq receives the majority

of the country’s rainfall, with a monthly average of 1.3

inches over the past 5 years—a 13 percent increase from its

30-year average. In the past, precipitation was less intense

and occurred over extended periods of time. More recently,

heavy and unpredictable spring rains have damaged homes

and crops, and several people have been killed by the

flooding that followed. Experts anticipate that climate

change-related spring deluges will become increasingly

common in the region, while deforestation results in

mudslides and erosion of the most fertile layer of soil.

As is common in climate change scenarios, unpredictable

heavy precipitation is paradoxically accompanied by a

reduction on overall moisture availability. Traditionally, heavy

mountain snow gradually melted to fill Iraq’s rivers and lakes

and to replenish aquifers and groundwater resources.

Recently, lesser amounts of alpine snow have resulted in

reduced available water over time. Maxar’s Soil Moisture

analysis used satellite-derived data to measure the

volumetric soil moisture in the ground (up to 1,000

observations per pixel) through a time series of more than

30 years. The results confirmed anecdotal evidence of

substantially reduced soil moisture in recent years. This

kind of surface and groundwater resource monitoring will

be increasingly important for diversifying economic options

outside of oil production.

The situation in southeastern Iraq is different, though

certainly no less concerning. According to Maxar’s GWI

application and Weather Desk platform, southeastern Iraq

has experienced a 7 percent decrease in rainfall from its 30

year average. Water shortages and contamination in 2018

led to massive protests in the city of Basrah, a large

population center and primary oil hub in the south.

Waterborne illnesses from drinking water sourced from the

Shatt Al-Arab (formed by the confluence of the Tigris and

Euphrates rivers) resulted in over 100,000 hospitalizations

between August and November 2018.

Although the country’s coastline is small relative to total

area, the area’s low elevation and concentrated population

make the region especially vulnerable to climate change.

Once referred to as the Venice of the Middle East, the

canals and waterways of Basrah have experienced

CLIMATE ZONES and Rainfall TRENDS

Mediterranean

Semi-Arid

Arid

Rainfall and Trends

5 Year Monthly Avg.

Increase from 30 Year Avg.

Decrease from 30 Year Avg.

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S P O T L I G H T

decreasing freshwater levels for the past several decades.

As water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates decline due to

dam building and decreased precipitation, salt water

intrusion from the Gulf increases. In 2018, seawater

intrusion contaminated the Chibayish freshwater marsh,

located in vicinity of Nasiriyah and Basrah approximately 100

miles upstream from the Persian Gulf. The marshes in the

area are an important environmental, cultural, and economic

resource. They serve as a natural filtration system that

protects the coastal fisheries in the Gulf, which accounts

for nearly 60 percent of fish consumed in Iraq.

The region has also experienced severe environmental

degradation from hostile conflict. In the early 1980s, President

Saddam Hussein punished the Marsh Arab tribes (who he

perceived as his opponents) by constructing a series of earth

barriers and diversion canals to dry the marshes. The

southern marshes were almost completely dry by 1991,

causing substantial sand dune creep towards former marshes

and increased coverage by sabkha (or salt flats).

Population Density (Thousands)

<750K

750K-1,250K

1.25M-1,750K

Height Above Sea Level (Meters)

1.75M-2,250K

2,250K-2,750K

>2,750K

1-2M

3M

4M

5-6M

9-10M

>10M

8M

7M

Canoe sits on dry ground in the Chibayish Marsh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

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S P O T L I G H T

In addition to climate change, the prolonged battle with

the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has reduced

the agricultural production capacity in northern Iraq, the

country’s traditional bread basket. In the past several

years, ISIS has destroyed fields, fruit orchards, olive

groves, and beehives, as well as critical infrastructure like

irrigation networks, well pumps, generators, and power

electricity networks. Many areas that have been retaken

from ISIS have also seen a resurgence in violent attacks by

ISIS and ISIS-sympathizers.

ISIS’s tactics and remaining sympathizers have likely had

a significant part in the hundreds of fires that burned

across the country during this year’s wheat harvest

period. While the Iraqi government has downplayed the

group’s responsibility, ISIS specifically called for attacks

on farmland and disseminated guidance for building and

deploying improvised explosive devices to start fires. “Roll

up your sleeves and begin the harvest,” demanded ISIS’s

Hot Spot Analysis of fires onagriculture land classification

99%

95%

90%

Hot Spot Confidence

Persistent Conflict is Damaging Iraq’s Agriculture

ISIS’ Al-Naba Online Newspaper, Issue #183

Al-Naba Newspaper. “Burn the farms of the apostates...

before you are millions of dunams of lands planted with

wheat and barley.”

According to satellite-derived data and statistical modeling,

much of this year’s agricultural fires have occurred in

areas with persistent ISIS influence and conflict. Significant

hot spots for agriculture fires were noted throughout

Ninevah, Kirkuk, Salah al Din, and Diyala—results that

correspond with Iraqi and Kurdish reporting. The country-

wide statistical model (displayed below) was based on

the spatial clustering of satellite-detected fires that

intersected with agriculture land classification derived

from Maxar’s BaseVue, a standard global land cover dataset

that uses multi-temporal, semi-automated classification at

the resolution of 10 or 30 meters. The satellite imagery on

the following pages depict the burn scar of several fires

that occurred on agriculture fields in June and July.

Agriculture (BaseVue Land Classification)

Satellite-detectedFires (May-July)

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S P O T L I G H T

Fire Burn Scar, Mosul, Iraq | July 20, 2019 | worldview-2

Fire Burn ScaR, 13 Miles SW of Kirkuk, Iraq | June 26, 2019 | WorldView-2

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S P O T L I G H T

Change in Wheat Production Between2008 and 2019

No Data

Percentage of Total Production

>50% decrease

0% - 50% decrease

0% - 50% increase

51% - 75% increase

>76% increase

Ninevah: 187% drop in wheat production

W./Central Iraq Southern IraqNorthern Iraq

(Government of Iraq, Ministry of Agriculture) (Government of Iraq, Ministry of Agriculture)

While agricultural production contributes minimally to Iraq’s

GDP (currently less than 5 percent), more than a third

of the country’s rural population relies on the sector for

employment. Revitalizing agriculture in the region is necessary

for the country’s future stability, and will require innovative

solutions that anticipate climate-related challenges.

Despite an overall increase in agricultural production

over the past decade, there are several concerning

trends. Northern Iraq (particularly Ninevah) is suffering

with continued conflict and poor infrastructure. The

predominantly rain-fed region of northern Iraq comprised 41

percent of the country’s total wheat production in 2008, but

is projected to supply only 13 percent in 2019. Central and

parts of southern Iraq have largely picked up the slack, with

central Iraq nearly doubling its percentage of the country’s

total output.

Because central and southern Iraq are increasingly reliant on

irrigation, there are significant concerns over water scarcity

Iraq’s Agriculture Output Increasingly Relies on Irrigation

and subsequent conflict over resources. During the massive

drought of 2018, residents in Maysan province accused

upstream residents in Wasit of using more water than they

had been allocated by Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources.

Wasit residents rejected allegations of overuse, suggesting

the lack of water availability was due to drought conditions

and increased withdrawals of water upstream in Turkey. Tribal

leaders in Maysan have also been accused of diverting flows

from the Tigris illegally to irrigate their fields. The satellite

imagery on the following page depicts the location of illegal

freshwater tapping that was observed earlier this year in a

YouTube video at the Ktaiban canal in Basrah.

Iraqis have expressed frustration with the government’s

inability to control water quota distribution, excessive use

and illegal riparian withdrawals. More than 20 separate

violent altercations over water usage occurred in the

province of Dhi Qar alone in 2018—a warning to the Iraqi

government that large-scale conflict may erupt without

government intervention and resolution.

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S P O T L I G H T

CONCLUSION

After decades of conflict, Iraqis are hopeful that rebuilding

and economic diversification are finally on tap. But there are

significant obstacles standing in the way of desperately

needed progress—and these challenges are being intensified

by the impacts of climate change. Desertification and

salinization of arable land, water shortages and declines in

water quality, decreased agricultural yields, and food

shortages are increasing competition for resources and

creating internal strife among already war-weary citizens.

Maxar‘s unique weather monitoring tools provide a

comprehensive approach for tracking, analyzing, and

predicting climate trends, and our Intermittent Water and

Soil Moisture datasets allow for extensive longitudinal

analysis of surface and sub-surface water levels. These

tools and subsequent analysis offer extensive insight that

can improve water management policy, agriculture

efficiency, and infrastructure planning—which will hopefully

produce quality-of-life improvements on the ground.

Location of illegal freshwater tapping, basrah, iraq | June 18, 2019 | WolrdView-3

Photo and Video Evidence of Illegal Freshwater Tapping (Youtube; Human Rights Watch)

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S P O T L I G H T

Illegal water pump

Ktaiban Freshwater Canal

A

A

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