Water Challenges and DesalinationLooking Back and Looking Forward a Decade

Multi-State Salinity CoalitionJanuary 2016

Mike HightowerDistinguished Member of the Technical Staff

Sandia National Laboratoriesmmhight@sandia.gov 505-844-5499

2

Desalination Capacity

Growth Trends Circa 2005

(National Research Council, Desalination 2008)

3

Growing Limitations on Fresh Surface and Ground Water Availability

Little increase in surface water storage capacity since 1980

Concerns over climate impacts on surface water supplies

Many major ground water aquifers seeing reductions in water quality and yield

( Based on USGS WSP-2250 1984 and Alley 2007)

(Shannon 2007)

4

Expected State Water Shortages Increasing

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

CO

IL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MA

CT

DE

RI

Legend

shortage

Statewide

Regional

Local

None

No response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

CO

IL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MA

CT

DE

RI

Legend

shortage

Statewide

Regional

Local

None

No response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

CO

IL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MA

CT

DE

RI

Legend

shortage

Statewide

Regional

Local

None

No response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

CO

IL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MA

CT

DE

RI

Legend

shortage

Statewide

Regional

Local

None

No response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

GAO 2003 GAO 2013

Water stress is increasing nationally

5

Desalination vs. Fresh Water Costsand Growth in U.S. Desalination Plants

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Years

$ /

10

00

ga

l

Desal

Desal

Fresh

Fresh

All plants Desalting Plants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1971

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Two-Year Period

Cu

mu

lati

ve N

um

ber

of

Pla

nts

Brackish water desalination and waste water reuseincreasingly cost competitive with other water solutions

6

Growing Use of Non-traditional Water Resources

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Kw

h/m

^3

(From EPA 2004, Water Reuse 2007, Mickley 2003)

Sea WaterRO

Today The Future

ConventionalTreatment

BrackishRO

BrackishNF

Power Requirements For Treating

(Einfeld 2007)

Desalination growth - 10%/year, Waste water reuse - 15%/year

7

U.S. Desalination Research Efforts - 2005

Desalting Handbook for Planners - 2003 Desalination Technology Roadmaps –

• 2002, 2005, 2007 – new technologies

NRC National Desalination Perspective, 2008• Recommended $20M/yr U.S. research budget, etc.

Wide-area, and wide-spread droughts• Multi-year droughts in West, Texas, SE, NE, and NW

USGS not monitoring desalination• Desalination use data difficult to verify and to identify

and estimate trends

BOR upgrade of Yuma Desalination Plant BOR desalination research budget of $1-2M/yr BOR Construction of Brackish Groundwater

National Desalination Research Facility

8

Desalination Plant Trends - 2005

Large seawater RO desalination plants being constructed and planned*• Tampa Bay -25 MGD

• Perth – 35 MGD

• Australia* – 5 additional plants of 30- 80 MGD

• Ashkelon – 90 MGD

• Israel* – 4 additional plants of 100 MGD

• Carlsbad – 50 MGD

• California* - 4 additional plants of 30-50MGD

Large inland brackish desalination plants were being considered• El Paso – 30 MGD

• Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas* – 50 MGD

Tampa

El Paso

Perth

Ashkelon

9

U.S. Water History Based on Tree Ring Data

10

12

14

16

18

20

-150 50 25

045

065

085

010

50

1250

1450

1650

1850

2050

Year

Avg.

Precipitation

(inches)

The southern U.S. and the mid-latitudes are in the 100th year of a 300 year arid cycle - not a drought

Univ. of Arizona – Tree Ring Research Lab – 50 year averages

Anasazi abandonmemt

Angkor Watabandonment

Mayan Abandonment

Next Abandonment?

10

Climate Changes will Impact Temperatures, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Runoff

Mid-latitude population and grain belts will be strongly affectedNat. Geo. April 2009 from IPCC

11

“Results are not predictions, but rather a starting point for dialogue and increased awareness of potential impacts of climate change.”

Roach et al.

Projected Rio Grande Flows through 2100

12

Global Desalination Trends - 2015

Global desal plant increase

• 13,000 to 17,000 plants since ~2005

• From 60 M m3/day to 80 Mm3/day

Israel has added 4 new large plants • Capacity to 600 Mgal/day

Australia built 7 large plants • 2 operating in Perth – 100 Mgal/day• 5 mothballed

Increased desalination research facilities• Including National Center of Excellence in

Desalination in Perth

Perth Binningup Plant 60MGD 2013

National Center of Excellence in Desalination –Murdoch University Perth Australia 2010

13

U.S. Desalination Trends - 2015

Carlsbad seawater desalination plant opens after 10 years of permitting

Improved understanding of available traditional and non-traditional water resources in the west

By 2050, 40% of Texas drinking water supply will be from nontraditional water resources

New federal desal research being proposed• DOE Energy for Water efforts• White House Water Summit

Expanding research on brackish desalination and waste water reuse

Carlsbad Desal Plant started 2005 completed 2015

0

5

10

15

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Nu

mb

er

of

Clie

nts

BGNDRF Clients

Private Funded

Gov Funded

14

Western Water Availability Assessment

15

The Energy Intensity of Water Supplies varies greatly across California

Source: California Water Plan Update 2013

16

Energy Requirements of Various Water Resource Options

Water Supply Options Energy Demand

(kWhr/kgal)

Fresh Water Importation

(100-300 miles)

10-18

Seawater Desalination w/Reverse Osmosis 12-20

Brackish Groundwater Desalination

Reverse Osmosis Treatment

Pumping and concentrate management

Total

7-9

1-3

8-12

Aquifer Storage and Recovery

Pre-treatment (as needed)

Post-treatment (as needed)

Pumping

Total

3-4

3-4

2-3

5-11

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Recent Energy Water Program Plans

Technology RDD&D • Thermoelectric Cooling Improvements

• Waste Heat Recovery in Energy Systems

• Process Water Use Efficiency and Quality

• Traditional and Non-traditional Hydropower Improvements

• Alternatives to Fresh Water Use in Energy Production Using Advanced Materials and Processes

• Desalination Improvements

• Net-Zero Municipal Wastewater Treatment

• Sensors

• Deployment

Analysis and Modeling • Integrated Analytical Platforms

• Decision Support Tools

Policy Framework

Stakeholder Engagement

International Diplomacy

18

Laminar GO desalination membranes are a potentially disruptive technology

18

47-mm

Thin-slit permeation pathway defined by oxygen moiety “nanopillars”

Intrinsic nanoscale properties of laminar GO drive water permeation and are optimum for desalination

SNL GO/polyester membrane

D G 2D

GO structure is robust to 1-ppm, one month free chlorine exposure.

GO is chemically tolerant to many hydrocarbons (eg: toluene)

19