Water Balance, Freshwater Flows, and Precipitation Associated with Climate Change in the Delaware...
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Transcript of Water Balance, Freshwater Flows, and Precipitation Associated with Climate Change in the Delaware...
Water Balance, Freshwater Water Balance, Freshwater Flows, and Precipitation Flows, and Precipitation Associated with Climate Associated with Climate
Change Change in the Delaware Estuary in the Delaware Estuary
WatershedWatershed Amy L. Shallcross, PEAmy L. Shallcross, PE
Operations Supervisor, Water Operations Supervisor, Water Resources Management BranchResources Management Branch
Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission
Delaware River Delaware River Basin Basin
CommissionCommission
PE
NN
SY
LV
AN
I A
MARYLAND
DELAWARE
N E W Y O RK
ATLANTI
C O
CE
AN
CH
ESA
PE
AK
E B
AY
NewJersey
WHAT DOES DRBC DO?WHAT DOES DRBC DO?
Manages Resources on a Watershed Manages Resources on a Watershed BasisBasis
Regulates Water Quality and QuantityRegulates Water Quality and Quantity Plans for Use of Water ResourcesPlans for Use of Water Resources Coordinates / FacilitatesCoordinates / Facilitates Educates about Water ResourcesEducates about Water Resources
Delaware Delaware RiverRiver
Watershed Watershed FactsFacts Nearly 15 million Nearly 15 million
people (about 5% of the people (about 5% of the U.S. population) rely on U.S. population) rely on the waters of the basinthe waters of the basin
Drains 13,539 miDrains 13,539 mi²² , or , or 0.4 of 1% of the 0.4 of 1% of the continental U.S. land continental U.S. land areaarea
216 tributary streams216 tributary streams 4 states, 42 counties, 4 states, 42 counties,
838 municipalities 838 municipalities 25 Congressional 25 Congressional
DistrictsDistricts
The Delaware River Port Complex (including docking facilities in Pa., N.J., and Del.) is the largest freshwater
port in the world.
Delaware Water Gap Region
Longest River without a main stem dam East of the MississippiLongest River without a main stem dam East of the Mississippi
Basin ReservoirsBasin Reservoirs
Water Supply (only)Water Supply (only) Penn Forest, Wild Creek, Still Creek, Penn Forest, Wild Creek, Still Creek,
Ontelaunee, Green Lane, Geist, Edgar Ontelaunee, Green Lane, Geist, Edgar Hoopes, Union Lake, Lake Hopatcong, and Hoopes, Union Lake, Lake Hopatcong, and NockamixonNockamixon
48.1 BG48.1 BG NYC Water Supply and Flow NYC Water Supply and Flow
AugmentationAugmentation Neversink, Cannonsville, Pepacton Neversink, Cannonsville, Pepacton 281.9 BG281.9 BG
Photos Courtesy NYC DEP
Basin Reservoirs Basin Reservoirs (continued)(continued)
HydropowerHydropower Lake Wallenpaupack and Mongaup System (multiple Lake Wallenpaupack and Mongaup System (multiple
reservoirs)reservoirs) 45.1 BG45.1 BG
Multi-purpose and Flood Loss ReductionMulti-purpose and Flood Loss Reduction Prompton, Beltzville, Marsh Creek, Chambers Lake Prompton, Beltzville, Marsh Creek, Chambers Lake
(Hibernia Dam), Blue Marsh, Lake Galena, Francis (Hibernia Dam), Blue Marsh, Lake Galena, Francis E. Walter, Jadwin, Merrill CreekE. Walter, Jadwin, Merrill Creek
39.4 BG (WS, WSA) and 71.4 BG Flood Loss 39.4 BG (WS, WSA) and 71.4 BG Flood Loss ReductionReduction
414. BG WS/WSA/Power and 71.4 Flood 414. BG WS/WSA/Power and 71.4 Flood StorageStorage
What do we know?What do we know?
General agreement in model studies:General agreement in model studies: Temperature (C) +3 to +5 C Temperature (C) +3 to +5 C Precipitation (%) 0 to +20% Precipitation (%) 0 to +20% Runoff (%) -25% to +20% Runoff (%) -25% to +20% Less confidence in regional precipitation/runoff Less confidence in regional precipitation/runoff
predictions than temperaturepredictions than temperature Regardless of sign of precipitation change, Regardless of sign of precipitation change,
significant changes expected in: temperature, significant changes expected in: temperature, annual streamflow cycle, soil moisture, and annual streamflow cycle, soil moisture, and snowpack. Anticipate more hot days; more snowpack. Anticipate more hot days; more variabilityvariability
What do we expect?What do we expect?
Equal or Increased PrecipitationEqual or Increased Precipitation Greater Intensity of StormsGreater Intensity of Storms Increased TemperaturesIncreased Temperatures Potential for Extended DroughtsPotential for Extended Droughts Some Increase in Sea Level RiseSome Increase in Sea Level Rise
(0.5 m – 5 m by 2100)(0.5 m – 5 m by 2100)
UncertaintiesUncertainties
Will increased precipitation offset Will increased precipitation offset increased water loss due to increased water loss due to evapotranspiration?evapotranspiration?
Will more days for groundwater Will more days for groundwater recharge (unfrozen ground) balance recharge (unfrozen ground) balance soil moisture deficits predicted with soil moisture deficits predicted with higher temperatures?higher temperatures?
How will vegetative cover change?How will vegetative cover change?
Eastern Plateau, NY > 71 inches
Northern, NJ > 59 inches
Southern Eastern Piedmont, PA > 55 inches
Northern, DE > 44 inches
Southern, NJ > 27 inches
Pocono Mountains, PA > 65 inches
Southern, DE > 17 inches
18’
22’
1955 - 1996
Rutgers – Office of State Climatologist
Rutgers – Office of State Climatologist
Is it wet? Is it dry?Is it wet? Is it dry?
Is it wet? Is it dry?Is it wet? Is it dry?
Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/eax/climate/prcp_MAM08.gif
Drought of the 1960’sDrought of the 1960’s
Potential Impacts – Potential Impacts – Water SupplyWater Supply
Water SupplyWater Supply Prolonged DroughtsProlonged Droughts EvapotransporationEvapotransporation Loss of Snow PackLoss of Snow Pack Salinity – Sea Level RiseSalinity – Sea Level Rise InfrastructureInfrastructure All Coupled with Increasing DemandAll Coupled with Increasing Demand
Changes in Snowpack and Timing of Changes in Snowpack and Timing of SnowmeltSnowmelt
There will be less snow in the winter; this affects water supply for There will be less snow in the winter; this affects water supply for many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. The timing of snowmelt may also change, prompting water resource The timing of snowmelt may also change, prompting water resource managers to change how water supply reservoirs are managed.managers to change how water supply reservoirs are managed.
AVG. MID-MONTH
LOCATION
J an 68Feb 68Mar 67Apr 61May 64J un 67J ul 72Aug 77Sep 79Oct 81Nov 80Dec 74
MONTH
Jeopardize water Jeopardize water supply due to supply due to increased salinity increased salinity levels. Both levels. Both surface water and surface water and groundwater groundwater withdrawals in the withdrawals in the estuary will be estuary will be affected. affected.
Increase river Increase river flows to push back flows to push back salt linesalt line
Increase costs for Increase costs for water purveyors – water purveyors – moving intake moving intake pipes upstream or pipes upstream or building building desalination desalination plants.plants.
Cannonsville Reservoir under normal conditions.
Cannonsville Reservoir (6.5% of capacity).
Cannonsville Reservoir is located on the West Branch of the Delaware River
NYC RESERVOIR STORAGE DECLINES TO RECORD LOWSNYC RESERVOIR STORAGE DECLINES TO RECORD LOWS
Need and Potential Need and Potential SolutionsSolutions
Need – More Upstream Storage and Need – More Upstream Storage and Reduced DemandReduced Demand
Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions Better reservoir managementBetter reservoir management New Reservoirs?New Reservoirs? New Main Stem Reservoirs?New Main Stem Reservoirs? Use old quarries for storage, Aquifer Storage Use old quarries for storage, Aquifer Storage
and Recovery, etc.and Recovery, etc. More System InterconnectionsMore System Interconnections Sea Barriers?Sea Barriers?
Potential ImpactsPotential Impacts
Water SupplyWater Supply Flooding Flooding
Increased PrecipitationIncreased Precipitation More Intense StormsMore Intense Storms More erosion and debrisMore erosion and debris Non-Tidal River – Old TownsNon-Tidal River – Old Towns Coastal SurgeCoastal Surge
Three Major FloodsThree Major Floods along the along the Main Stem Delaware River in Main Stem Delaware River in less than less than Two YearsTwo Years
September September 20042004
April 2005April 2005
June 2006June 2006
Need and Potential Need and Potential SolutionsSolutions
Need – Minimizing Flood DamageNeed – Minimizing Flood Damage Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions
Better Stormwater management - Infiltration,Better Stormwater management - Infiltration, Protection of Headwaters, Riverine BuffersProtection of Headwaters, Riverine Buffers Better Land use decisions, LIDBetter Land use decisions, LID Different Management of Existing ReservoirsDifferent Management of Existing Reservoirs Raised or New Reservoirs?Raised or New Reservoirs? New Mainstem Reservoir?New Mainstem Reservoir? Moving People from Harm’s WayMoving People from Harm’s Way Flood Warning/ Flood MappingFlood Warning/ Flood Mapping
Potential Impacts - WQPotential Impacts - WQ
Water SupplyWater Supply Flood InundationFlood Inundation Water Quality ImpactsWater Quality Impacts
TemperatureTemperature Dissolved OxygenDissolved Oxygen Suspended SedimentSuspended Sediment Lower Lower 77QQ10 10 for Wastewater for Wastewater
Assimilation/TMDLsAssimilation/TMDLs Potential Increase in Waterborne PathogensPotential Increase in Waterborne Pathogens
FECALCOLIFORM IS WAY
D
O
W
Nand
DISSOLVED OXYGEN IS
↑FROM
2 PPM TO 7!
Needs and Potential Needs and Potential SolutionsSolutions
First –Modeling of Scenarios / First –Modeling of Scenarios / ImpactsImpacts
Issues –Issues – Existing Water Quality StandardsExisting Water Quality Standards Anti-Backsliding RulesAnti-Backsliding Rules How to Handle Natural Changes –How to Handle Natural Changes –
Tougher Regulation?Tougher Regulation? Should We adapt to CC-caused WQ Should We adapt to CC-caused WQ
Changes?Changes?
Potential Impacts - Potential Impacts - BiologicalBiological
Water SupplyWater Supply Flood InundationFlood Inundation Water Quality ImpactsWater Quality Impacts Biological ImpactsBiological Impacts
Wetlands Inundation/LossWetlands Inundation/Loss Change in Spring Thaw FlowsChange in Spring Thaw Flows Migratory PatternsMigratory Patterns Vegetation ChangesVegetation Changes Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species
Sea Level Rise - Impacts on the Delaware Sea Level Rise - Impacts on the Delaware EstuaryEstuary
Reduce the Reduce the amount of natural amount of natural wetlands and wetlands and marshes, which marshes, which act as a buffer, act as a buffer, helping reduce helping reduce non-point source non-point source pollution and pollution and flooding severity. flooding severity. Wetlands are also Wetlands are also an important an important habitat for habitat for wildlife, especially wildlife, especially migrating birds migrating birds and fish.and fish.
The animals, plants, The animals, plants, and forests of the and forests of the region may shift their region may shift their habitat and ranges habitat and ranges northward due to northward due to increased increased temperatures and temperatures and potential decrease in potential decrease in water.water.
Biodiversity among Biodiversity among species may also species may also decrease, which can decrease, which can also lead to an also lead to an increase in invasive increase in invasive species. species.
American shad
Already seen: Already seen: earlier bird migration and egg laying, earlier bird migration and egg laying, earlier peak discharges in snow-fed earlier peak discharges in snow-fed rivers, rivers, earlier timing of spring blooms, and earlier timing of spring blooms, and changes in the range and timing of fish changes in the range and timing of fish migrations in rivers (IPCC 2007)migrations in rivers (IPCC 2007)
Photo courtesy of USFWS
Next StepsNext Steps Prepare for Potential EffectsPrepare for Potential Effects
Assess Future Demand and Develop Assess Future Demand and Develop Conservation StrategyConservation Strategy
Modify/Create Models with Uncertainty Modify/Create Models with Uncertainty Factors Factors (e.g. drought of record)(e.g. drought of record)
Develop Strategic Plans for Droughts, Develop Strategic Plans for Droughts, Floods, Sea Level RiseFloods, Sea Level Rise
Adaptation (Adaptation (vsvs Fighting Change) Fighting Change) e.g. –Impact of change in forest species, e.g. –Impact of change in forest species,
coldwater to warmwater fisherycoldwater to warmwater fishery
Will New Reservoirs be Will New Reservoirs be Needed or Will Many Small Needed or Will Many Small
Changes Be Enough?Changes Be Enough? Need for New Reservoirs and Flood Need for New Reservoirs and Flood
Mitigation Dams?Mitigation Dams?oror
Combination of Combination of Stormwater InfiltrationStormwater Infiltration Protection of HeadwatersProtection of Headwaters Stream Corridor ProtectionStream Corridor Protection Low Impact DevelopmentLow Impact Development Use of Old QuarriesUse of Old Quarries Regional PlanningRegional Planning Floodplain RegulationFloodplain Regulation
Management ConflictsManagement Conflicts
Need To Manage For Even Greater Need To Manage For Even Greater ExtremesExtremes
““Stationarity is Dead” – Need for Stationarity is Dead” – Need for Uncertainty FactorUncertainty Factor
Water Managers like to be Conservative –Water Managers like to be Conservative – Do not gamble with waterDo not gamble with water
Need More Water Storage for Supply, Need More Water Storage for Supply, Instream Flows, Salinity Repulsion and Instream Flows, Salinity Repulsion and Voids for Flood MitigationVoids for Flood Mitigation
NEEDSNEEDS
Localized, Downscaled Climate Change Localized, Downscaled Climate Change ModelsModels
Uncertainty Factors for Droughts and FloodsUncertainty Factors for Droughts and Floods Linking Models – Linking Models –
CC/Hydrologic/Hydrodynamic/Water QualityCC/Hydrologic/Hydrodynamic/Water Quality Evaluation of Alternatives EffectivenessEvaluation of Alternatives Effectiveness
Demand ReductionDemand Reduction Small, Local Solutions to Water ManagementSmall, Local Solutions to Water Management
Evaluation of Water Quality ImplicationsEvaluation of Water Quality Implications
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Time for Time for ACTION ACTION !!!!
Integrated Water Management in the Delaware River Basinwww.DRBC.net