Water as a Source of Conflict or Cooperation? Lessons from ... · warsak dam dera simail khan...
Transcript of Water as a Source of Conflict or Cooperation? Lessons from ... · warsak dam dera simail khan...
Water as a Source of Conflict or Cooperation?
Lessons from the Indus Waters Treaty
Ahmad Rafay AlamAdvocate of the High Courts
Vice President, Pakistan Environmental Law AssociationDepartment of Law & Policy, LUMS
LUMS Water Program/Development Policy Research Centre
T A R B E L A D A M
M A N G L A D A M
Q A D IR A B AH /W
B A L L O K IH /W
P A N J N A DH E A D W O R K
G U D D U B A R R A G E
CHENAB RIV
ER
IS L A M A B A D
R A W A L P IN D I
A R E A = 3 5 0 ,0 0 0 S Q MIN F L O W = 1 7 0 M A F
CHEN
AB R
IVER
J A C O B A B A D
K A R A C H I
A R A B IA N S E A
M A N C H U R L A K E
B E L A
IN D U S B A S IN B O U N D A R Y
R A N N O F K U C H H
S U K K U R B A R R A G E
M IT H A N K O T
IN T E R H A T IO N A LB O U N D A R Y
K O T R IB A R R A G E
A F G H A N I S T A N
W A R S A K D A M
D E R A S IM A ILK H A N
P E S H A W E R
C H A S H M AB A R R A G E
T R IM M U B A R R A G E
T A U N S A B A R R A G E
K A L A B A G H D A M
JHEL
UM R
IVER
R A S U LH E A D W O R K
K O H A T
C . I . S
I N D I A
S U L E IM A N K EH E A D W O R K
IS L A M H E A D W O R K
B H A K R A D A M
R U P A R H E A D W O R K
C H I N A
P O N G D A M
F E R O Z E P U RH E A D W O R K
J A M M U
W U L L A R L A K ES R IN A G A R
K H A N K IH /W
BEAS
RIV
ER
S U T L E J R IV E R
H A R IK EH /W
M A R A L AH /W
INDUS R IVER
J A M M U
K A S H M I R
S ID N K IN G (C H IN A )
T IB E T (C H IN A )
B A G L IH A RH /E P L A N T
S A L A L
K IS H E N G A N G AH /E P L A N T
IN D U S B A S IN B O U N D A R YR IV E R
IN T . B O U N D A R Y
L E G E N D
E A S T E R N R IV E R
W E S T E R N R IV E R
R AVI RIVER
Pakistan’s Dependence on Water
80% of Pakistan arid; 20% water-availability
95% of freshwater (mostly glacial melt) used to irrigate some 40 million acres of land
Nearly 75% of water resource is available during the 3 months of the Monsoon season (water storage capacity)
Irrigation accounts for 24% of GDP, 90% of exports and 48% of workforce
The Pakistani economy has developed by harnessing the Indus Basin
The “poverty-water nexus”
Water is an existential issue for Pakistan
Origins of the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
Partition of Land – 1947 Created riparian relations where none existed David Lilianthal’s vision of joint watershed management The “Good Offices of the World Bank”
Partition of Waters – 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, 1960 Negotiated when international water law in its infancy Highly technical; meant to be “politician proof”
Characteristics of the IWT Does not divide waters, divides rivers
Eastern Rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) to India Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan
Bilateral; does not include other riparians China and Afghanistan
Did not consider sub-national issues (Sindh & Kashmir)
Pakistan allowed to use waters of certain tributaries of Ravi River foragriculture (Annex B)
India allowed to use waters of Western Rivers for agriculture (Annex C),generation of hydro-electric power (Annex D), storage (Annex E)
Co-signed by third party World Bank assisted parties to agreement “Financial Provisions” of IWT (Article V) dealt contributions from India and
Indus Basin Development Fund (US$ 800m) to finance replacement works: 8 link canals (400 miles) 2 storage dams (Tarbela on Indus and Mangla on Jhelum) Power Stations 2,500 tubewells etc.
Characteristics II Creation of Indian & Pakistan Indus Water Commissioners (the
Permanent Indus Commission, Article VIII) To exchange of information To provide notice
“Settlement of Differences and Disputes (Article IX) Questions concerning interpretation firstly to be examined by Permanent
Indus Commission Inability to resolve question = “difference” Differences to be resolved by Neutral Expert. Decision of the Neutral Expert
to be final and binding Comprehensive process of appointment
Neutral expert confined to 23 questions (set out in Annex F) If question outside authority of Neutral Expert, then it is to be settled by
referring it to a Court of Arbitration Court to consist of 7 arbitrators, two appointed by each party, the rest through
a comprehensive process (Annex G) No hierarchy; reference not an appeal
IT has worked and withstood the test of time!
Pakistan’s Concern over IWT Construction of dams on Western Rivers a violation of the
“spirit of the Treaty” and can cause up to 30% water loss
Construction of dams will give India ability to affect Pakistan’swater resource (assistance to Afghanistan in construction ofwater-storage dams also alluded to)
Filing of Baghliar Resoivor cited as proof of intentions (thoughofficially Baghliar issue has been resolved)
Water issues have been inextricably linked to Indo-Pakpolitical issues (Iyer: “Water is not an issue between India andPakistan, it is an issue of India and Pakistan”)
Indian view on IWT Elaborate restrictions on water use on Western Rivers
Fear that Pakistan is trying to nullify the permissible usesclause of the IWT.
India will not cut off its economic nose to spite Pakistan(“Many pondages do not make a storage”)
Poor water usage and water infrastructure in Pakistan(low cost recovery, “BNR”)
Restriction on run-of-river dams impact energydevelopment in Kashmir and elsewhere
Water a Source of Conflict Only 5-6 incidents in history where water a source of conflict; it is primarily a source of
cooperation
Current paradigm under IWT a zero sum game. Disputes amount to a “stay order”, costescalation and a waste of time
Very little that can be done about perceptions
Treaty now facing new challenges: Climate Change EIA’s, minimum flows unheard of in 1960 Water scarcity (how do you allocate a scarce resource?) Groundwater
Rhetoric is going out of control (the unintended consequence of “politician proof”)
IWT is hardwired into Pakistani security establishment Shadows of unresolved Kashmir issues
Indus Basin one of many watershed concerns for India
Water as a Source of Cooperation Shadow of the Treaty is only 50 years old. The Indus Civilization is
5000 years old. No competition.
Move outside IWT paradigm of dividing the resource LUMS/ORF Indus Basin Water Usage Mapping Study
Must create an alternative dialogue
Must have long term view. There are a billion and a half people,Children of the Monsoon, that are going to be affected by water-related issues in the coming decades. We cannot sit back andreact. We must formulate and lead this debate
Indo-Pak cooperation on water (outside Kashmir and War onTerror) can be leveraged (IWT resulted in US$ (1960) 1 billion ininvestment from WB IWDF) and will create enormous internationalgoodwill.
Can Peace Parks be a Way Forward?
Siachen, the “highest battleground in the world” or “a struggle between two bald men for a comb” IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas UNESCO World Heritage list Rio Declaration Hague & Geneva Conventions Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use
of Environmental Modification (necessity, proportionality, selectivity & humanity)
Constitutional Rights Local laws
Siachen Peace Park Management System
Huge international goodwill; a chance to change the discourse
Thank you – Be Green