Warming Climate in India to Pose Significant Risk to Agriculture, Water Resources, Health, Says...

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8/24/13 Warming Climate in India to Pose Significant Risk to Agriculture, Water Resources, Health, says World Bank Report

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Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holdingwarming below 2C

New Delhi, June 19, 2013 An expected 2C rise in the worlds average

temperatures in the next decades will make Indias summer monsoon highly

unpredictable. Shifting rain patterns will leave some areas underwater and

others without enough water for power generation, irrigation or, in some

cases even drinking says a scientific report commissioned by the World

Bank Group.

Turn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case

for Resilience, released today, looks at the likely impacts of 2C and 4C

warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and

cities across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia. It builds

on a 2012 Bank report that concluded the world would warm by 4C above

pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if countries did not take

concerted action now.

Depicting life in a not-too-distant future shaped by already present warming

trends, the new report warns that by the 2040s, India will see a significant

reduction in crop yields because of extreme heat. Reduced water availability

due to changes in precipitation levels and falling groundwater tables are likely

to aggravate the situation in India, where groundwater resources are alreadyat a critical level and about 15% of the countrys groundwater tables are

overexploited.

In India, more than 60% of the crop area is rain-fed, making it highly

vulnerable to climate-induced changes in precipitation patterns. It is

estimated that by the 2050s, with a temperature increase of 2C-2.5C

compared to pre-industrial levels, water for agricultural production in the river

basins of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will reduce further and may

impact food adequacy for some 63 million people.

The report, prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for ClimateImpact Research and Climate Analytics and peer reviewed by 25 scientists

worldwide, says the consequences for South Asia of a warming climate are

even worse if global temperatures increased by an average of 4C by 2090.

In this scenario, seen as likely unless action is taken now to limit carbon

PRESS RELEASE

Warming Climate in India to Pose Significant Riskto Agriculture, Water Resources, Health, saysWorld Bank Report

June 19, 2013

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emissions, South Asia would suffer more extreme droughts and floods, rising

sea levels, melting glaciers, and declines in food production. In India, for

example, an extreme wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring

only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the

century.

Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming

below 2C, but the window for action is narrowing rapidly. Urgent action is

needed to build resilience through climate-smart agriculture, flood defenses,drought and heat resistant crops, improved ground water management,

better coastal infrastructure, and human health, the report says.

Possible Impacts for India

An extreme wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only

once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the

century.

Kolkata and Mumbai are potential impact hotspots threatened by

extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and

very high temperatures.

Significant reduction in crop yields predicted. Some 63 million people

may no longer be able to meet their caloric demand.

Decreasing food availability can also lead to significant health problems.

Substantial reduction in the flow of the Indus and Brahmaputra in late

spring and summer.

The future that scientists have envisioned in this report reinforces the fact

that climate change hits the poor the hardest and that it could roll back

decades of development gains in India. In order to minimize the impacts of

a changing climate, we need to ensure that our cities become climate

resilient, that we develop climate-smart agriculture practices,and find

innovative ways to improve both energy efficiency and the performance of

renewable energies,said Onno Ruhl, World Bank country director in India.

A warming climate will contribute to a slowing in the reduction in poverty.

While the lives of everyone in the region will be altered by climate change, the

impacts of progressive global warming will fall hardest on the poor who are

largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture or live in urban slums. Under 2C

warming by the 2040s, crop production in South Asia may reduce by at least

12%, requiring more than twice the imports to meet per capita demand than

is required without climate change. Decreasing food availability can also

lead to significant health problems, including childhood stunting, which is

projected to increase by 35% by 2050 compared to a scenario without

climate change.

The report ci ted Kolkata and Mumbai along with Bangladesh as potential

impact hotspots threatened by extreme river floods, more intense tropical

cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures. With South Asia

close to the equator, the sub-continent would see much higher rises in sea

levels than higher latitudes, with the Maldives confronting the biggest

increases of between 100-115 centimeters.

Melting glaciers and loss of snow also pose a significant risk to stable and

reliable water resources. Major rivers such as the Ganges, Indus and

Brahmaputra, depend significantly on snow and glacial melt water, which

makes them susceptible to climate-change induced glacier melt and
http://www.worldbank.org/en/about/people/onno-ruhl


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reductions in snowfall. The report projects a rapid increase in the frequency

of low snow years in the future, well before 2C warming takes place. This

could increase the risk of flooding, threatening agriculture.

In collaboration with the government of India, the World Bank is taking steps

to build resilience against the impact of the present warming trends. World

Bank-supported projects in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand

are helping local communities conserve their watershed better. This is

expected to improve the availability of water for farming and help farmersmove to higher-income yielding crops, promote the efficient use of scarce

water resources and help communities set up agri-businesses. World Bank-

supported rural livelihood projects, including the National Rural Livelihood

Mission, are also integrating water conservation and efficiency, soil

conservation practices etc. in their activities. The Bank is also supporting the

development of environmentally sustainable hydropower in India, as well as

supporting the National Solar and Energy Efficiency Missions through pilot

projects.

IFC, the World Bank Groups private sector arm, is working with several

Indian companies to build climate smart solutions. For example, it isintroducing efficient water use technologies for basmati rice cultivation in

Haryana. Till date, the project has led to water savings of 1.1 million cubic

meters and has benefited over 1,000 farmers. Another IFC program

Lighting Asia is providing renewable lighting solutions amongst two million

people in rural India. By the end of 2015, the program aims to bring down

CO2 emissions by at least 64,000 tons.

For a copy ofTurn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional

Impacts and the Case for Resilience go to:

http://climatechange.worldbank.org

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