WA Landman. The RCOF concept Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events occurred...
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Transcript of WA Landman. The RCOF concept Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events occurred...
![Page 1: WA Landman. The RCOF concept Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events occurred The record-breaking El Niño episode The holding of.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c875503460f9493f4a5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WGSIP INTERACTION WITH THE WMO RCOFS - A SOUTHERN
AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
WA Landman
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The RCOF concept Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events
occurredThe record-breaking El Niño episodeThe holding of the first series of Regional Climate Outlook Forums
(RCOFs) in southern Africa Awareness of the likelihood of an El Niño grew throughout 1997
Forums in other regions of the world was accelerated to provide assistance during the period of the event
The Forum process promoted the recognition in many parts of the world that short-range climate predictions could be of substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating climate variations
An important aspect of the Forums is the facility to bring together experts in various fields, local meteorologists and end-users of forecasts in an environment that encourages interaction and learningCapacity building is one of the key tasks
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Regional Climate Outlook Forums
Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa
(PRESAO : PRÉvisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest) FOCRAII : Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment
and Prediction for Regional Association II (Asia) Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum
(WCSACOF) Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (SSACOF) The Pacific Islands: The Island Climate Update Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) Climate Outlook Forum for Central America Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean: The Outfield
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Typical RCOF forecasts
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Typical relative score between categories
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Forecast vs. Observation:Probability of exceeding the 85%-tile of the climatological record;Three-category observations
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The STREAMFLOW forecast
1946 quaternary catchments
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IBSA-OCEAN ACCESS-JAMSTEC
To promote scientific co-operation among India, Brazil and SA to exchange expertise and knowledge in the fields of Ocean Science and Technology
Theme 1: Climate Variability and Change Research
MULTI-MODEL PREDICTION
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Recent seasonal forecasts
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Recommendation
CHFP data available through IRI data libraryIn CPT format for CPT users
Process studies Operational prediction by using forecasts
from operational global models (again using the IRI data library)