Status report of TT/ RCOF
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Transcript of Status report of TT/ RCOF
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Status report of TT/ RCOFDmitry Kiktev
TT/ RCOF LeaderHydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia
Vladimir KryjovHydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia
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Outline
3.1. Improved operational long-range forecasts and long-term projections
3.2. Improved delivery of climate information and prediction products for climate adaptation and risk management
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3.1. Improved operational long-range forecasts and long-term projections
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3.1.1.1. Collect and examine information on RCOF activity in various parts of the world.Review RCOF products, practices and organization models/mechanisms. Develop a Concept paper on possible development of RCOFs in RA-VI and its liaison with RCC network
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3.1.1. 2. Discuss needs and propose possible steps for RCOF organization in the areas beyond SE Europe
- North Eurasia Climate Centre has held NEACOFs twice a year since Spring 2011.
- SW Europe + NW Africa RCOF is under construction
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3.1.1.3. Include downscaled LRF products in SEECOF practice. Provide objective verification of SEECOF products. Make SEECOF outcomes available for interested NMHSs via authorised access to web/ftp-server of SEECOF
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Implementation of downscaled LRF products at NEACC-NEACOF with posting on the NEACC web-site is scheduled for 2014
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Correlations between the observed wintertime (DJF) AO index - and wintertime (DJF) SLP predictions by GPC-Moscow (a),
- and observed wintertime (DJF) SLP (b).
1979 – 2003 (25 yrs.)
a.
b.
The basis for downscaling
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Distinct negative phase of the AO
GPC predictions of DJF’12-13 mean SLP (from WMO LC LRF-MME)
The basis for downscaling
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3.2. Improved delivery of climate information and prediction products for climate adaptation and risk management
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3.2.4. Examine and search for ways of expansion of the RCOF scope in RA-VI - Add forum functionality to the LRF-Node of the RA-VI RCC Network and explore the possibility of inclusion of climate change section in RCOFs.
In 2012, NEACC disseminated a questionary among NE NMHSs.The needs are discussed at the NEARCOFs.
In summary the needs cover:- Data (normals) consistency;- Climate monitoring and projections;- Training
Consistency of the normals!
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3.2.5. Analyse requirements and feedback on effectiveness, gaps and improvement of RCOF activity in RA-VI, to address what still has to be done.
It is analysed during RCOFs
In summary improvements must comprise:- Regional applications based on downscaling;- Economic efficiency of the predictions;- Industrial sector oriented applications
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THANK YOU