Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group...
-
Upload
frankie-lansford -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group...
![Page 1: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel
Laura HarrisonUCSB Geography
Climate Hazards GroupFamine Early Warning System Network
![Page 2: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
perspective
Efficient and optimal planning/response to climate hazards…
is dependent on our understandingregional vulnerability
to meteorological shock
![Page 3: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
goals
• Link climate hazards to impacts
• Identify areas most vulnerable to climate shocks/change
• Place risk in context to regional livelihoods
![Page 4: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
general method
• Examine recent land-atmosphere interaction in response to climate variability
• Water & surface energy balance
• Where there is systematic response
explore climate change scenarios
![Page 5: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
CMIP5 ensemble mean RCP4.5
PET projections for the Sahel
Q: How will warming over next 25 years impact plant stress in the Sahel?
+ ~0.75 °C
Air temperature, Ta
10N-20N, 20W-40E
![Page 6: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
CMIP5 ensemble meanprojected Ta
June
July
August
September
Ta = µ 2026-2035 - µ 2001-2010
Source: KNMI Climate Explorer
Projected near-term warmingVaries regionally and monthly
![Page 7: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sahel rainfall change uncertain
JAS
White: < 66% of models agree on direction of change
Gray: > 80% of models show no significant change
Source: James and Washington, 2012
Inter-model rain change agreement(CMIP3)Rainfall change with 1 °C global warming
July-SeptemberA2 SRES scenario
![Page 8: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Examine regional response to climate variability
Approach 1. Assume aspects of local climate will remain same2. Identify where:
Higher than normal heat is associated with……drier or windier or clearer sky than normal
conditions
![Page 9: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Climate constraint to plant growth
![Page 10: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Climate constraint and livelihoods
![Page 11: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Moisture availability within growing season
![Page 12: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Model anomalous PET
Build statistical model to explain recent PET variability as a function of temperature
Quantify the role of temperature
Estimate effect of projected Ta
![Page 13: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Model anomalous PET
Where y(t) = Daily PET anomaly (mm)α = PET autocorrelation coefficient for lag 1β = Slope coefficient for temperature anomaly (mm °C-1 day-1)γ = Intercept termε = Model error
Build statistical model to explain recent PET variability as a function of temperature
2001-2010 GLDAS NOAH 2.7.1 LSM daily data
Variables- Potential evapotranspiration, PET (FA0-56 PM equation)- 2m air temperature
![Page 14: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Model skill
0.50 - 0.75
0.25 - 0.50
< 0.25
R-square valueJune
July
August
September
Skill attributed to temperature
![Page 15: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Model-estimated relationship: T & PET
GLDAS Noah 2.7.1 LSMPET & T
2001:2010
![Page 16: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Projected surface moisture loss
2026:2035 – 2001:2010
GLDAS Noah 2.7.1 LSMPET & T
CMIP5 model ensemblemean monthly T
2001:2010RFE2.0 rainfall
2001:2010
![Page 17: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Moisture availability within growing season
GLDAS Noah 2.7.1 LSMPET
2001:2010RFE2.0 rainfall
2001:2010
![Page 18: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Further research
• Physical mechanisms of Temperature-PET relationship-Stronger vapor pressure gradient-Higher incoming radiation (LW, SW)
• Use station-estimated T trends (CHG)
• Results in context to rangeland conditions
• Wet vs. dry years
![Page 19: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Thank you
Collaborators: Chris Funk, Joel Michaelsen, Leila Carvalho, Phaedon Kyriakidis, Chris Still, Michael Marshall, Elena
Tarnavsky, Molly Brown
Climate Hazards Group USGS FEWS NET USAID
Questions, comments: [email protected]
![Page 20: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
extra
![Page 21: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
PM equation
![Page 23: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Temperature predictor coefficient by monthFrom PET predictive model. 2001-10 data
Results: Hot spots
chapter1Source: KNMI Climate Explorer
Projected warming by monthEnsemble mean. 2035 vs. 2001-10
![Page 24: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Results: Hot spots
chapter1Source: KNMI Climate Explorer
Projected warming by monthEnsemble mean. 2035 vs. 2001-10
Temperature predictor coefficient by monthFrom PET predictive model. 2001-10 data
![Page 25: Vulnerability to near-term warming in the Sahel Laura Harrison UCSB Geography Climate Hazards Group Famine Early Warning System Network.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110319/56649c425503460f948f08bd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
JJAS, PET increase per 1 deg T anomaly