Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014

IntroductionIn our previous report we had curated online conversations around politicians and political

parties; and analyzed them in detail, using social media monitoring tools.

In the duration between that report and this, some important events have taken place,

example AAP forming a government in Delhi, Kejriwal resigning from his position as Chief

Minister of Delhi, state elections in five states, RIL Gas Scam coming into the open, etc.

This report is an attempt to relook at and analyze online conversations of the past three

months to find out if these incidents have had a noteworthy impact on online political

conversations, and if yes, to what degree.

Overview of Content

State-wise preference levels for political parties

Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties in the country

Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on Facebook and Twitter

Words associated with top political parties and the Parliament

Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations)

Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online)

This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refer to those that have been arrived at by analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (December 2013 to February 2014), and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.

Total Mentions – 1.7 Million

The total number of mentions for political parties, from December 2013 to February 2014, is 1.7 Million. This includes positive, negative and neutral mentions for the parties.

46.06

33.86

15.36

0.62

0.47

0.61

0.460.39

State-wise Levels of Political Conversations

An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number

of online political conversations came from users in Maharashtra and Delhi.

Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations, while the

number of political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low.

We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political

conversations in these regions across the top three political parties.

25.90 21.7311.26

6.02 5.28 4.97 4.89 3.31 3.28 2.49

27.3824.86

9.66

5.35 4.69 4.37 4.40 2.91 3.42 2.02

20.6327.55

10.66

6.13 7.19 4.45 4.302.73 2.78 2.43

December January February

State-wise Conversations - Congress

152,784 214,910 988,309Mentions

There was a jump of 546% seen in the conversations from December to February for Congress.

Online Mentions for Congress

Location PostsDelhi 26.4%

Maharashtra 22.2%Karnataka 10.7%





Location PostsMaharashtra 20.9%

Delhi 19.9%Karnataka 11.1%


Maharashtra 21%Karnataka 11.2%



Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment

• In Delhi, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently increased.

• In Maharashtra, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased.

• In Karnataka, the positive sentiment has decreased from December to January but increased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased.


There was an increase in negative conversations in Maharashtra in the month of February because of a rape that took place in Congress’ office in Kerala. Also Congress was mentioned in association with the RIL Gas Scam, which resulted into an outburst about the issue.

Conversation Examples

27.0520.89

11.346.07 5.58 5.00 4.80 3.15 3.13 2.13

24.98

23.40

11.95

5.30 5.30 4.68 4.583.54 3.27 2.25

23.36

21.04

11.42

7.56 7.185.41 4.15

3.27 3.042.09


State-wise Conversations - BJP

92,948 138,462 733,187Mentions

There was a jump of 688% seen in the conversations from December to February for BJP.

Online Mentions for BJP


Maharashtra 21.3%Karnataka 12%


Maharashtra 22%Karnataka 12.3%









Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment

• In Delhi, the positive as well as negative mentions show a consistent decrease.

• In Maharashtra, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January by decreased in February.

• In Karnataka, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February.


Negative conversations have been around BJP being silent over the RIL Gas Scam. Also NarendraModi mentioning that Pranab Mukherjee should have been named as PM, drew a lot of flak for BJP from across all quarters.


State-wise Conversations - AAP

28.3321.06

10.916.00 4.84 4.83 4.03 3.43 3.30 2.13

26.47

22.49

10.38

5.58 5.00 4.98 3.78 3.48 3.30 2.48

27.88

21.75

10.95

5.91 4.79 3.98 3.91 3.83 3.09 2.29


83,720 131,941 341,964Mentions

There was a jump of 308% seen in the conversations from December to February for AAP.

Online Mentions for AAP







Location PostsDelhi 25%






Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment

• In Delhi, the positive mentions consistently decreased from December to February while the negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February.

• In Maharashtra, the positive mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February while negative mentions consistently decreased.

• In Karnataka, the positive mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February while the negative mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February.



Delhites felt that Kejriwal did not live up to his promises and has ruined the state. They also felt that the RIL Gas Scam expose was to gain political mileage and that it targeted only specific party members.

Online Conversations about Political Parties

Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each party is associated with.

These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular party, in online conversations.

The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political party in the same context.

Positive Buzz around Congress

Words % Postssupport 41.14leader 24.41

candidate 14.58power 19.88

Total Mentions – 26,974

Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz

words

Some people feel that Rahul Gandhi is a dynamic leader and is the future of the nation. Die-hard Congress supporters believe in him for a progressive

India.

Positive words that Congress is associated

with: support, leader, vote,

candidate, power

Negative Buzz around Congress

Words % Postscorruption 38.84

protest 16.27defeat 15.20

problem 7.62expose 5.69


Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz

words

There has been a lot of discussion about Congress focusing on scams rather than the development of the country. Rahul Gandhi’s comments on the 1984

riots drew a lot of criticism from all quarters.

Negative words that Congress is associated

with: corruption, defeat, protest, problem,

expose

Positives

Negatives

Examples of Conversation

Positive Buzz around BJP

Words % Postsleader 34.59

support 31.41development 17.27

inspire 6.21admire 5.30

responsible 5.22



words

There is hope in the country that BJP will bring in development in India and Narendra Modi is the leader who will inspire the change.

Positive words that BJP is associated with:

leader, support, development, inspire, admire, responsible

Negative Buzz around BJP

Words % Postscorruption 24.46

corrupt 16.20expose 11.27

cheatercongbjp 11.04opposition 10.47

blame 9.82rilgasscam 8.46



words

There was criticism around BJP for being silent on their alleged involvement in the RIL Gas scam.

Negative words that BJP is associated with:corruption, corrupt,

expose, cheatercongbjp, opposition


Positives

Negatives

Positive Buzz around AAP

Words % Postsreformist 38.23leader 13.52

honesty 12.83visionary 9.36powerful 9.22



words

Aam Aadmi party leaders have received a lot of good comments for being honest and powerful visionaries, reforming the country, and working towards a

better future through their efforts.

Positive words that AAP is associated with:

reformist, leader, honesty, visionary,

powerful

Negative Buzz around AAP

Words % Postsresignation 5332

protest 4351expose 1610

bhagodakejri 1072liar 838



words

People were angry with Kejriwal for not fulfilling promises and termed his resignation as an escapist move. There were protests by Aam Aadmi Sena

outside Kejriwal’s house which drew a lot of negative attention.

Negative words that AAP is associated with:resignation, protest,

expose, bhagodakejri, liar.


Positives

Negatives

Topics % Postspepper spray 44.99

telangana 20.76impasse 6.36anarchy 6.16

peaceful dharna 5.75street vendor 3.16


Buzz Around The Parliament

The pepper spray attack by Congress MP Ladgapati was quite talked about. The approval of the TeleganaBill and the passing of the Street Vendors’ Bill gained a lot of traction. Also Kejriwal being called an

anarchist for a peaceful dharna was discussed quite a lot.

29.42%70.58%

This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political conversations from men and women.

The support for BJP is higher than that for Congress and AAP from men, while there is higher favorabilitytowards Congress, from women.

Gender-wise Support for Political Parties

23.74%76.26%

23.79%76.21%

Congress BJP AAP

Sentiment Analysis

The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect to the total number of conversations.

A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-on-month.

Posts/Conversations refer to any online platforms.

Sentiment Analysis - December

From a minister being caught taking a bribe, to failure to install water meters, to corruption, were the prime reason for negative conversations around Congress. Corruption and the BJP’s inefficiency in the past resulted in a higher percentage of negative buzz around them.

Congress

BJP

AAP

Negative Positive

51.7 % 48.3 %

51.2 % 48.8 %

42.8 % 57.2 %

Sentiment Analysis - January

Arrests of BJP leaders for taking dowry, and murder of a RTI activist, resulted in strong negative conversation around BJP. AAP not living up to people’s expectations was the prime reason why there were a high number of negative conversations around them.

Congress

BJP

AAP

Negative Positive

46.9 % 53.1 %

51.4 % 48.6 %

49.9 % 50.1 %

Sentiment Analysis - February

There were 2 AAP members who were caught in an immigration fraud in UK, thus increasing negative conversations. BJP’s silence over the RIL Gas scam drew a lot of flak from people.

Congress

BJP

AAP

Negative Positive

52.8 % 47.2 %

54.3 % 45.7 %

65.5 % 34.5 %

Sentiment Analysis Over Time

Congress BJP AAP

Congress: There has been a mixed response in the sentiment for Congress over the three months, but the sentiment is mostly on the negative side.

BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase throughout the period, while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.

AAP: There has been a consistent increase in negative sentiment which has skyrocketed to 65.5% in the month of February.

52.8

46.9

51.7

47.2

53.1

48.3

0 50 100

February

January

December

54.3

51.9

51.2

45.7

48.1

48.8

0 50 100

February

January

December

65.5

49.9

42.8

34.5

50.1

57.2

0 50 100

February

January

December

Top Issues Discussed on Twitter

These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months

Mentions – 12,546

56.09 53.13

77.88

50.0056.15

43.91 46.87

22.12

50.0043.85

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

BJP Ineffective TMC Hazare BJP VKS Join BJP LJP Ally Congress TRS Merge

Retweets

Tweets

Top Issues Discussed on Facebook

These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months

Mentions – 3,938

35.20

19.68

9.90 9.42 8.99 8.46 8.35

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

Aap Ambani Charges

AAP Govt Form

AAP Parrikar attack

Cong Lalu Alliance

TMC Hazare Aap mining investigation

BJP Impotent

% of Posts

Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity

Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google+,

and YouTube emerges as the most popular politician on social media.

Owing to a higher Twitter following, and more YouTube subscribers and video views;

Arvind Kejriwal comes second, followed by Shashi Tharoor who has a high number

of fans and followers on Facebook and Twitter respectively.

Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity

Standing Politicians FacebookNo. of fans

FacebookEngagement

Rate (%)

TwitterNo. of

Followers

TweetsGoogle+

No. offollowers

Most no. of views for a

video

YoutubeSubscribers

WeightageScore

1 Narendra Modi 1,04,02,636 9.41 33,76,337 3,902 11,76,355 7,35,960 1,22,665 35,89,620

2 Arvind Kejriwal 42,60,584 6 13,57,004 2,472 2,008 50,330 1,966 14,09,851

3 Shashi Tharoor 1,21,621 3.21 20,89,894 21,279 476 32,672 191 5,57,253

4 Manmohan Singh 4,60,479 1 10,82,350 4,295 0 2,20,120 51 4,07,939

5 Sushma Swaraj 2,09,190 0 9,25,712 3,005 0 1,89,921 588 3,02,927

6 Rajnath Singh 9,74,494 20.5 1,75,314 445 694 214 8 2,87,533

7 Arun Jaitley 496,788 18.35 109,392 318 0 12,448 75 1,52,815

8 Mamata Banerjee 5,94,516 8.92 0 0 0 0 0 1,48,630

9 Omar Abdullah 61,801 6.36 4,44,260 6,388 0 0 0 1,26,835

10 Akhilesh Yadav 402,537 6.59 38429 75 0 29,013 8 1,13,148

Weightage 0.25x 0.1x 0.25x 0.05x 0.05x 0.1x 0.1x

Basis of Calculation

Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each

social network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and

then taking a total of each factor multiplied by its weightage.

Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people

talking about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.

Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook

9.41

6.28

3.210.9

20.518.35

8.92

6.36

6.59

Engagement Rate (%)

Narendra Modi Arvind Kejriwal Shashi Tharoor Manmohan Singh Sushma Swaraj Rajnath Singh Arun Jaitley Mamata Banerjee Omar Abdullah Akhilesh Yadav

Rajnath Singh has the highest engagement rate, 20.5%, followed by Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi who have engagement rates of 18.35% and 9.41% respectively.

Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter

Shashi Tharoor with 21,279 tweets is the most engaged politician on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 6,388 tweets and Manmohan Singh with 4,295 tweets are 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Based on the number of tweets

21,279 6,388 4,295 3,902 3,005

2,542 2,472 1,912 445 318

Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter

Narendra Modi dominates the list with 33 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 20 lakh followers

Based on number of followers

3,376,337 2,089,894 1,357,004 1,082,350 925,712

444,260 175,314 140,576 119,222 109,392

Looking AheadThe initial positive buzz for AAP seems to have declined post his forming the government and then resigning as Chief Minister of Delhi.

Rajnath Singh has moved from position three to position one when it comes to being the most engaged politician on social media and Arvind Kejriwal has been ousted from the list of top three most engaged politicians.

As the run up to the polls continues, there have been events like Mamta Banerjee’smeeting with Anna Hazare, Rahul Gandhi’s interview with Times Now, exposes of supposed chinks in AAP’s armour, some members not being happy with the seats they have been allocated, etc. which have generated a fair amount of online conversations.

An analysis of these and a look into how much they have impacted online India’s political disposition will form the bases of our next report.

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Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014

News & Politics

Transcript of Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014