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Foreign Policy

theories· actors· cases

Edíted by

Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, Tim Dunne

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Foreword

James N. Rosenau

My contrlbucion tn tite dnaly>is cf furcig.n polky began en ;¡ bJadboanL I WJ.\

pwmptW lo JariIy for $ I 1 . l d O l ~ whatvaríables werJ: cenL"u:o prqbing ilie dynamk>of foreign policy, Tire r ~ u J t wm an e i g h t - ~ o l w n n matrix wllisted :he teÚltive

impmtanC!' offive k e r y ¡ r i a b l ~ ir, dght type.s oIroun.trils (Resenau, 1%6). And thatma.¡ríx mIl infonn;my re¡ching M1.d relew.h, It;dsn im plidtly underlies rr..ore1JUll aftw oi lhe coaptm in thh r o ! u m ~ . N'ttd!c;:s lO $Iy. r un honourtd that!bis volume

takes note of my roolrlbution lo tru: IidQ1ruled die eigbt·wlumn matrix and !hi: OOaipt.:on cfit 'prHhooty uf fortign

p\l1¡"y', Itprorohd suffidellt intm:st WlOllg o U ~ around / ¡ e ~ o u n t r y t o Conmle_UM of cunfere.rtal!! th;rt upl,ored vanow filtctl: o[ti:,¡: fR"t/¡eory, whk::J in lumltd tú the publication ofa o U ~ c t i o n al' es.'lays prep.tred ro,:.he c . o n f ~ r e n , U ' S : (Ro.retlliu,

t?J4). !bis oolIiboratio!l amoog lOme twt'nty !Chalan who bad defdoped a keenintereslln ·mlllp'iU'ing fQreigR polkie$ g ~ v t ri5e to tl¡e founding of tM lnter-Urnversi ty

Compa¡atiw: F01ttgn Policy (ICFP) proje..i, '1'he membrn of ICFP ternilined incontinua! ron!act fu! sorne NX ~ t/¡llS deman!!rI!tll1g lhatlike-rninded < : o U ~CIUl pool their r e ~ w c t J ¡ ana .w.stain rollaborarion ~ ~ 1 i O I ! ' , e ten uoiverútm dunaga ¡xriodu[diminisrung ~ u v r o r t for oomp;!r.illvt an¿ I\llIItU'itl.tiveresemk

The matrix. w ; ¡ , ~ impdled hy t/¡e milieu oI the lield al mal time. 1t a penad inwhkh wmparison was ~ e r y mueo io Yoguf ¡nd it seemed lo me ttzl fo:rtigc polkyphenomena were a$ lnbjEct lo eomparatiu an.aIysÍli as any other poIi!ital p r o c e s ~ ,!ndttd, l IDllllnd it remarkable ¡}¡at!lO ¡:revious ~ M l y H had hndertUen arompitl!tM:inquiryufwhen, how. and ...my differer¡¡ ~ o u n t n e ~ u.ndtrtook !o in$- t h ~ r n s e ¡ v e s ro fueintldruOOnaJ systcm in me ?/iIp !hat tl¡ey did,

In teh'OIpect, it dear thiÚ toe original pre·!he<ny $p;n'k:ro wide ínttlcrt norcciy becau:!C lt.rtressed tbe l1':Cd for , o m p : r n t i ~ anillysil, but fot :¡¡::vf:rillodie! rcaronstbat ilio Indtrizr \heentr.uswm fcr ~ ¡(fP. Ero:, t/¡e pre-thoory f f t . ¡ e d ~ meam fOl

analysing the amoue! of foteisn poEcy in p r c v i u u ~ ¡rear! a.> wea a.;: lIJl.ti¡;ipatiugfuture4el't:lo¡m-,ent<;in J ¡ ; o u n l r y ' ~ exremal b e ~ J \ v i o u r , Se-::ond,as.:ltre!l:.edbeJow, jI provided<1 mta!lS fur bringio! ro:. ano dGme«lC policy togtth« IlDder tbe .'ll.lme Jllla1ytic

ümbrtlJ¿. Third, it highlighttd !.he virtues of $ t u d i ~ s as a basi¡ fu: '-Oll'lpMing,aual:ysL1g <lnd interpretingrordgnp1JlkypÍle.l'lOmena,AH (lftlit$tcentraldmaam¡tU:sDi lbe lidd lIre f u l l y ~ r e d in \.he cb¡::lcu that compri.c this 'il)iumc.

Ñln,h ptogr!:Sili has 'Xcurred in U-'¿ freid ,mee !he f o ~ oí 1m: ¡CPP, Tbe veryfilct thal ji i;¡ now rornfortab1r r e g a ~ iiS a 'Jield' ¡, lIt ilSeif mdiCltive of how

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1 The history and evolution of

foreign policy analysis

Vaierie M. Hudson

Chaptercontents

Introouction: three p¡!rJdigrr.atic work, 12

Ctassk FPA:;d¡¡¡¡,wmir>(1954-1993j 17

The psycho!o!!k.:!l;rnd socieU.1 miliao: Dffweig,'1 poliqd&ísion-:r!ilt¡r'Ig lO

FPA wrnfleaion me ¡ate mil!:: ami 1900s 24

CCi'lti:'l'IJXIIó11)' ¡'PA'S reseal'ttl ~ e n d a , aI1d cOl'\CllJ$lon 26

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. ' : ~ ~ ~ H ~ ' "-, ," "" j)

Introduction: three paradigmatic works

What .are me Q r i g i n ~ of Fordgn l'olky A n a l ) ' ~ 1 S • D!tiMn-Makirlg IU IlM AppI'cMh ro Sludy of

(fPAW In t¡nt$ú\IiC,FPA-styI.e wm-th,r)s, sehol· IRCi!T7lutWlUIl Ppli&! by Bichard C. Sarder, H-W.mhip wnQse thwreti.::a1 groond Í'i human decisíon Bruck, and Burten Sapin (1954: also see Snyder

m.akm, 11:\5118 ~ ¡ n g l y '.Ir ",¡min groups-hlU bem .ct al, 1963; reprinted in {001).

afound v kmg as there have heen histonars aod • 'Pre-theor¡es and Theories ()f Fordgn PI)Hcy' byoQ<.e:$ wlw han wtJght w¡mdttttarr;! why n.cional J ~ N. Roo;r¡au (a bookdtapk!' written illl%4

g9Vtrnl'f¡(nl$ llaR rn'!lde the chOlm Ihqd¡d rtg.ttd. ané pJhlished in FamU, 1%6,"illg illtcl'ltate , e l a t k m ~ . ($.ee Box l.ll. Bnt FPA·,tyle

• M<lII-M¡1iell Rda.'Íq>Uhip H)'pI)me'ícs ¡" rhe CaMfeI:twúrk within ttJe 5e1d orIl1lernalÍoolli Rdation.l per

of IMIm'WWII.u P"Ifric.! by HaroM n i Margarerle is best dlle.-l back to the Jale 195Qs IUld early

Sprout (1956; expa:llded and ftvillCdin artide form1960s,

in 1957) and thdr 1965 book The &:vbgical PI!(Thlee ¡:m:ndi1!ll.1atic Wl)rn a r g u ~ b I ) ' huilt the

JpectiWOll Human AffQirs with Speciaf RefrrenCl! IQfou.,"uiation ofForeignNiq A:u.ly!is:

IIlffl"l'Wll'mwl Pc1itltr), (See Bo," 1.2,)

FOrtlp pollq: lt¡¡> ~ r . a / : e g y rx a p p r o a ~ h ÓlC6Cn by • a l m m l t : n e n t t o P l l l S U e m ~ ; a I etplarntiorl¡

the natíonal g o ~ e r n m r n t ID a c h i e ~ 1t5 p s nlrs. leía )J)anning m u ! t ~ ie<eJ> Of analy>ll;

tioos witll W;enal ~ t i t i e 5 , Thls mducles deei,lon. lo do • a«lmmltmern: ro l.lI:ilíre IheOry .and finding; f1"OO1

arnlSS the ~ p e c t r U ( t 1 of social o;¡;ience;""''' Peuq behavlovr. Tia! o ! J s t ~ r e artefacts Of• a«11lmi'lmeot to v ~ w i n 8 proces.s of foreign

kifcigA ~ i { y ; i¡)eciii.: actioru aIId:"II'Ords I.Is/."cr'l!:! inpOllqd«i!lor¡.m¡¡ldng impor.ant 3S tile Mput

f:I!hren in tI!e realm of ~ po!icv; may fnclI.¡¡je ttle ~ d soch behiMou¡, Sl.KIl as """'.¡long o o r f f i c t ~ o Q I ' I Q;II1fJnU0, whictl ~ , ~ tIMoty: Theo!y tila!: ~ 1 l S the beha

I tiOO$ CCitiId be !Ise:r ID ool\St,JCt data induding t'4.'nt VÍoJ!lr t i octIllS i n ~ " un I! game throty.data. FP8' '!lay indtJde bet1a1'lotir ttIat was m:'idertal ArloMpedflc: thtorr TI1ecIy lllat &p!alflS tila t1!hir

(¡( u n í n t c n d ~ by tOe- governrnent, and in .-Jdition, de vioor Of 5:pt(lnc at.11.li1, Mlch iI i roteign P c h : ~ A n a ~ i ! .tlsionno do nothing may nQt leaw any mVloural thec¡y. ThJs rype of thoor¡- be g e ( l e f a ~ i < a b l e , but

arllifatl; tl'M.is mere is illp¡¡age Octwee'l me coocep('Of under spa::ilK $Cope conultioi'l5 for a p p l i c a b ~ i t y Actor·furllign ¡diq aoo me col'lCe¡)t of' foreigr ~ ~ c y !:leh ... ~ p e d l l c theQl)' 1$ a furm Of mlddle-r.1nge thecry, In that\11C1Ur. ¡ti. more gooeraliZilble!l'l3tl iMight5 d e n ~ e d fiom case

Fotttp poIcy auIp/$; The sl.ltf1leld of Illtet."lltfOnál studiei, but or the otJuu h;md, has more !el'e1€ ~ , o p eRei.ltiCM !.ha! ~ ro uplaln fofeign ¡diC}', ot, ~ ~ iX)I'llI1':lín.'l1g rtI j!I?t'Ieralilabilit¡' mm atIof,;tille!)', fureign pcky tle!'IiMour. ref$'enre m !he g e n e r a l ! h e o l y . ~ , ~ . " l 11$ NIIJle, actQHPf,'O!ktl'Iro"e{1ca! ground ot humi11! deciD m a ~ f f i . lcting tI\eoIy ror mheJ ~ i O t 1 ami ~ ¡xedittkll.ing!)! and in r o u ~ TIle ¡ubfield ha> ¡ ~ ' a l haIImaitt tilhefureignpofrq behaVi",¡ of ¡nrucu!af erttltie; tnan

i ! á l J r . g e ~ m ! tllforr• awmmitment ro look bek:Yw the natior'Hí"latt l.eve!

of m ¡ ¡ ~ ~ to ilctOl-!ofltdn, mrormation;

• a ccmrnirment tu build l C t l ) r ~ A : Í & tf1emy the i!lteff-a::e tlel.ween ;actur..glYlt'fal thtofy ane me tomp!ex;ty of '1Ie real wnrJd;

Chapter 1 Th! bi,U)ry aM ev<Yulion r i f o r c i i r i ' ~ ~ W ; ' 9 ' 1 ; f : " : ~ ' B 4" ', ' ',:;" ','.c < i . ' > : ; ' ~ , ; I : r ; · l ~ j . : r : i

Richard Snyder leldíng a foreign Dolicy seminar

S ( l W ' C ~ , ¡g¡ P r m : ~ t l Y l u r l ~ ~ ' i Í t \ ' 0brory. P r i l l c e m ~ U n , W l ~ ~ Y .... C ~ i v t ' l , D e p . u l r n ~ r ~ 01 BIxlk5 ana SQeClaI ( ~ J e ¡ : f l ( ) n ~ Pnrn:e!Of1

8Ii.erY\j 1 J t < ¡ ' ~ r y ,

The wcrk tÚ Riclurd 5r.yder ami his C I . l l i ~ in Wiag this a p p r ( . > ~ c t t , Sllvder itJl(j his wlleagues

inspittd rcsendlcn!.<lm beicw the nat¡cn,;tate hequea!hed ro ITA iu CMrtcttmru: emp!wi$ en

levclmIlJa!y>ii wU¡r; püyminvolved' foreign pcliq dtci;ic!1-MUt¡: (FPDM) as versusror:lign poliq !lt:m;",n De\;$irnHnakir1í was hest

"'l/e ; ¡ ¡ j h ~ { e 10 tt'le tlatlOl1ltilte ;r¡ ¡he fundamenil' ' ~ ' l t l tiewtrlas 'orgmízadonallmluvicur', by whkh rheuf anal'l1il. yet ffl! haVllIIS<.:al\led \t;¡te. a ~ lta;IC detmninants wOllld be s p h e r c ~ ot mmpetp h ~ c a i Jhs\rm10n By emptlil>lling de.;i5icn"m.¡k1ng iI5 ~ n c ~ of ¡he a,tor5 involveU, ~ O I ' J l n u n i , a t i c n and3 IT1llr,¡1 focJS '111 ~ ill"O'lided ""'¡ uf IYj¡OJHling me ¡nfonnation .t1ow; md motivat\o!1S o[ vuious1e/eOO1m¡1lIjofuoor ;¡rOOM ¡hose D l ! i a ~ i s M'lO JC( fet

playm, [ H : ~ i r a b l c I ! X p l a u a t i o n ~ would thw be bcththe wli,i(4l iQóttj D e c l i o · ~ ~ ; ¡ f e ~ r e w f f l : U oper·

multiclusa.l a nd ipterdlsdpllni'l11.atifi!: Ir duilhll¡¡.ec¡: >Wtlng >Q hI t ¡pparr<lilr1y ~ n r e ' J \ e \ J

Jame; Rb$ellau's prt·th«w.m:g enwuraged seh.o¡'Irtern¡¡i 'l'i'\Vr41 I;¡¡;m¡; lleoome :ela!al en lileodm

;m ro m a t i c a l l y lIld>Oentifiully tease out crwOr1M Q¡YXIQ"Fl1IaJer> HI!Mrto, ~ " . . r t f > of fiatll'€

natÍO'J2lJy appliwb!c gme:aiir.ttions a.bollt naooodwl"lirtict'a.."'tt.Wi ha"'! 'let bo!<m adeqtlalct;dt'<!'io?ld "

(,nyder el !I" )t¡J.1: ~ t l I t ! : bebaviOllr. Al R ( ~ ' \ e n a l " : put ir,

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I , j : ~ : : ' , , 1 ~ , , : > v * i é ' , M . ~ n" '. , ,

endemlUt, The : r « e ~ C f f D r d g n policymaklD.g \\IiIS

allellSt lIS i r u p n r t ~ n l . if no! mOre important, !han

mrtign palicy al: :m Dulpi.:t. 'Che ,ubstance of

message was and cor.nnue.\ t(I be tilo: 'hard rore' ofFPA. (See Bol D.)

c ~ Prowm' rogrutlOr,leaminb heIJristíc faI·

L'lcies, ~ rK-l.Hdtr l'Mooil!tty ami Ork!ntaIIoo: opentkJmltOO!!>, mOOWltIoIli, ¡;1y:.:hcliiogra¡;i:y, etc.Sm&ll GI'oI/$ Dy6aIbItt gtou¡J\tínl, newgmup, c c a l ~lions, ~ : G . -¡ntflfm uf wader ~ MI", Small GroIID

COMPMJtfonOrganhMilln !'rOca : i ( r ~ m e l l Q l ieamlng. ~~ I ¡ I ' I E ¡1f(l(.edues, ,mpienentJtiQl'1 ;",;es, l'tL8ureaualll' Mies: Mf. 'lICi"a!e, burlget, ¡ ~ ,inrer·agtr'lt)'groop ¡x¡1ít!ts._ etc.

Clllttlte itftd Foret¡n Po!iq: idenl.lty!'lM natícna!ism, hlYoir tlistlliieS, role lhemy, etl;,

DomHtk PoIlriu.l ContestatlM: regime!'¡pe, mOOJa,

po!itkal ntl:'rf"rr g r o U f l ~ , org¡ml.ed  pJrty rotrtestltlon

arnl eie1:toral p d í t ~ W;,

Nl1k»Il! ~ ilOO I'1lrerPl ~ , gi!\'lgtapt,y,

1 ' ~ ) U ! t R , eo,::OOQmIc l i k . t ~ ¡ s . Sy$ttm Etfm:JooJIcnojiJIN q ' OOArt1y, tll>tribtrtlm

e l ~ , ~ baiar.,es rJ . eI):,

"s6x:t;. ' t r ~ ~ ~ ( ; ¿ ~ ' i ~ : ~ r ; ¡ ; r i ~ s ~ : ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ; ; ¡ ' ~ ¡ ¡ : , ¡ .::fA·2F'i ,".;<";;."),,.,", .. , , ' ~ , ' 'o,",} o'• • f ._", , , : > , ~ ; , ; :L"":",.,,;j. \>':_"-"5"',',""... / ' , ' ~ , : : , ' ',.'::

lhf2" scamd wa\'e af theorizing b l i ~ t lipoll tile fou11l1ilc

tlonal paradigmauc \ I o r ~ . Betweer.1974tQ 1993 /brelgnpolky analyliS developed a numtle' of parallef resean:!"t

l' palh\\layrSmall ¡rowp dtclsloftomaldng

~ < ' S [O the proces! and stlucture of g r Q ~ p $ f n a k j n g foreign poIit)'áeOsions, The g f O U p ~ that'/jerestudied rangedn liumvery sm.lllgroups lO l . or.g.an:Z3lions .ind!.lU'9ucracies, I n s i g h t s f r o m s o c ¡ ¡ ¡ l p ~ h Q l o g y w p r e i ~ c o r pOralfd int:J FPA It \\aS diKO'Vl:red ttlat the (11Qtwation

lO mairltlingfOl.l}Komel1SllS anl1 p ~ n a l aapeta.nce by

1M group muió d ~ r i D H t e ded>ion-m,oong 4lh!.lity.

OrganiutlGI'III pro«!u :wd bur<'iKlCrati(: peHtltt~ h l : regm ro ffildy the ínRu!!I:"IQ r:;f or¡¡.¡mir,a.blfl pFX\55 ilfId bl.!reaarrltic poIitics 0f1 fim!ign poIqdetlsio(Hr.alclr¡g. ÜfganilatiOW¡ ond bureaUCl"ldt'5 put!!"Ielr cwn Sl.J1VÍVal ¿t t t - ~ \(!j) cf trleir I I ~ t af priorliles,

Cft¿r¡ tI1ey ..111 (C :ncrwe: tI1E'( rnIaIil'C strmgth. tt

jI/a;¡ 100m! that !he alt;;rÍO! ooJeahes of fOl"elgrl poiirydroswr. 'p!¿yer>' íflfllJl:l1Cej l¡\eI, I l l i l t , g .comp¡tatift fottI&n poIkyfht wt¡.1ieId of CcmpilrattI'C Foriq ?oIiq (CFPj de

~ ~ i o p e j as a 6porne ro Jarnas R:t;mw', dlaliMge \O

bll:id a u 5 ~ 1 af!d multi-level thwry of furuign

¡de¡. Frneign ¡niíq bo;lJawiot.u, as é t ; p , u a : ~ ilS .a: faR, lI'C\l1.'rrnakil'lg or ¡jipIQ'l\J.C'(-$l3CewmtHotiltlbe compaf€d and ¡¡ggregalOO, Data *Wi coliertea M 1n;t.

ety of pCMibie e ~ p 1 a n a t u r y facrors ro tktcrmme f » J N I n ~ by \\Il'Iith tih1s:e inoofjerlleOl ~ " r i a b l e ~ corrc\iltffi, Researcher, M o p ~ lO emNge-lI'ttlt agran:l uníNed theOl)1

cfl'oteigl'l poli", t J e ~ a V ' O l l r atl¡j,ciIllle lO aH 1i1tlCII> and

timf p ~ r i o d l , The emplrical f/SUIU \I!!!1e ~ than lh'!

p l ' C ' l A g O ~ i $ t $ had h o p ~ J PsydlOloBlcaJ il1f1utnctIGII romign pclky dedslon-lIfIatlog !rn:rUNIg attention \I!:.tS directed In tJ1e mind ofthe far'

e1Bl1POHcydoollon·mlker.Undet cr.rtlln l l t e l s ~ J I rOlloi¡jOns, I11diYid¡¡¡¡1 d'larJ«erlstic5 W\)u!d become crucial In

Jl"ldeman¡!¡ngoC\\' dt;(isiono are milde. Al so, ¡xo bJ el'l

af m i ~ h O r 1 1'10, idertffioo. with poterttial d i o ; ¡ ¡ l t r n u ~ ( % ) ~ J e o c e s In rel1!tlol'l toqJe5toos ofwaf and ?eace,

Sodetal mIIIkIn The :>OOeW (OOt:e\(t J . I ~ o ca:Tle- Itl t!'le rOre Re;ear,h· $'S WI1'IÍl'le:l hlJW far natiooJl mibute!; dFtt-fmired

o o i ~ l f l & SUCO MrulWre, m>tmy, grograptry, ¡;ro. ~ po!lt<a1 In'!tiwtJC1S. mlllr¡¡ry p&!et, i&!aIop, a n d ~ k s . rheI'OIJleílli:gÍnle{ype.b()ftMIir

¡ : ¡ r o m l ~ pa;t:¡;utwfy \l!Im the ¡NJj;.atiOIl tila!: dfmo. O;¡¡;:;e$ tended r« o AVll WI\tI ene aoolrer

c:hapter' The hÍ>tQIy ilfIC ffll.it:OOQffuflllgn polIcy ;mÍyris 17, .

Otht:r p;t..-ti WÚIi' ~ e Wl!rt more !empmallybouruled ~ we $ball !t t• .:ertrin metOOdologicalstnrus: thal perhap!. .leernd sdf-rndrnl in !.he earlyl%Os would llot stand 1M tes! or time. Tbfjt wQuid

~ f l S á l d r ! troub!ing patadmes,. which wouId plaguefu<: Cleldar.dkad roa tcmporary decline in !lOme arw

in !.he mid lo late 19a!X uatil t.hey wm: satislictori!fr e w l ~ . Ddipik !ÍIt:!It ¡mruio_ !.he fim bioom ofFPA, luting from !he tm 1%011 ro !.he a f u t e m t 1 1 ~til)Jlfddecline, 'IQ$ a (¡me of p t i ~ tlfortand ucitemmt.

Classic FPA scholarship( 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 9 ~ L

____ 'l'he ~ m : r g y .and rnthusiasm of the fint genCfa

tior. oJ work in HA (1954-197J) wu tremelldou$.

Great stritb in cooc-eptualiation, dong with parallel elfom in data roIIect:ion arul meth.(ldQlogicnl

npetimcntatiQn, were the rontributions ofthis timeperiod, Tht 5«000 gentration of W{)rk from nbout

!974 ro 1993 ~ ! y b u i l . t u¡JOu thote f o w t d a t k m ~ .Though ¡( ~ . L w a y l l dlfficull lo $t1 the ooundaries ofaliddofthought, tl-,eovernewwhlcb fo.llow$ ¡ n d l l ~¡¡ rtpresenwM sampl.ingofdalsic WO:1G in toe nr.itand ~ gene:ration !.hlt both aamined Imw the

'specirics' of nations lead !O ~ in IOrelgnpoliq choiceibehavioor, and put fotw1rd ptqmi.

!ion> in !his regwI that at lmt llave !he poteflülll t()

k ~ k " " ¡ " , p l i _ c r _ ~ .

Group decision-makíngSnyder et al had ~ .tIC proo::e$> strut·¡me of group;¡. .mWng furcign ?01kY deciMns(Sr.ydt:r extena:kd bis work with cu t .rtudics in col·¡¡oor.ltlon witb Gl-enn Paíge;. se! Snyner and Plip,1958; Paige. 1959; Paige. 1968'). N u m m u . l ~ scholaniechoed tbis !heme in !he:i rwork, which Mlgeé from!he study of foreign palier making in very unallgroups tu the study offorcign pofu:ymaking. in very

organl2.ationsand bUIlmucracies.

5mafl group dynamics

SQrne {lf the IllO-'lt throrctkalJ:y long-livcd w(lrk

produced dnring pttiod .:en!rea on !.he conSf<¡UfllCI5 of militl¡¡ furei¡¡o ptlUq tl«i:liomin sw group.$. ~ r . r r . c : h o l ~ " MJ. exploreQ the wUque dy¡w.mil;¡ oí $\Ith de·cision srtúng before, but m:ver in tclation 00

foreign palicy dccision-making, wbcte $t3ktslI1ight be mu(o hlgher. The tMl.1 importan! work¡, lbat (lf Irviug JaniI, who..-.e semiua! V'ldimt vf

G r o ~ p t l t i l l k lImost singldlllJl.dedly began this. 1'1:

starclt tritdition, Iu that volwne, IUld usirtg sludicsdralffi spedlkally from the lt'Mm of foreigll poJiq,janil s l w ~ \'Xlnviodugly dial tire m o t i ~ a t i o r . LO

m:únWn group .:onsensu.s and ptn;(lnal m e p t ; m c ~by die group cm Q/USC aet\)rioution of decisiDn

mWflg qnality. Th.e empincal /'t'!ielI.!ch of Wn8,1975; Semme1. 1932. Semmel md Mina. 1979; Tct"

lock. 1979; and othert emndéd t.hi\ researm JSinga ~ w iL"IIIly.ris !)fexperimental a t ~ , as \'1(1 aseasel w ¿ j e ~ Groupthink beromet 1m ofSI.W::1Il ?Qss.ible

ootcomtS m !.he mofe . Htrmll1r\, 1971!.}!er·mann a ~ grüU¡YS lIong RVUil dimellSiom(me, rok of Ieader, mies rO! detiron, aulonomyoí group ¡mrtidpa!ltsj, and is me ti) mau genenl?rtdictioN about me liketyoutromeot dclibeutIDUS

i n e a c h t r p e o f ~ .Tbe \Ii\lt'k of tlw: sewoo. wave moved 'bqond

g;roupthink\ lo botb retine ar.d ntend ncrlJllder-iltaruling of ,nW! gmnp ~ Repmtnút.lvewtrl mclude> Hart. 1m Hart, Stern, and Sun

ddlus, [991, Herct ~ t a ! . , 1987', 1$&9; MtCacky,1989;RlpIt:y, 1989;Slfwart, Hermarlll"lllld Hfl:mann,19t19¡ Gaem1en, 19'91,

The .t'tond wave 100 ~ f ! l u g h t with it a new re

!lelU'ch wue huw does agroup come to undetwmd,represent, andf'tamtagiven fOI1.ign PQlky J.ituatíon!

Work:i mdude t h o ~ by ~ Bres!auer, Chatle:s F.Hermann, Donald Sylvan, Philip Teuock, and jillllcsyOSI (Veruoorger, 1990; BresJaner and Tetkx:k,1991;1/oss, Wo1fe, Lawrence, and EngIe, 1991; Billings andHennanu, J9'í14). Turning to e f f O ! t ~ by individual

F , ", " / , , ~ ' ; t ; f ; ~ \ ? ; ~ ~ i ~ : , '

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,':,'¡', . o ' : J i ' ~ " ." """""""" ' ,>" , ;>,:";'¡" J ; : ! í : , " ; ~ , ~ ' " . " "" . ," ' , '" <"',","," € " ' ' ' ' ' ~ ' ' Y'.".', "",,,,,, , , , 1 t ~ ' ~ f ' ; . " J k ; ' . ' ; A . ~ , ' '",..,- '"

]dtol;¡r;, we will highligbt the W\¡rk uf K.'mng. 1mmdJk,ynwtl, 1991.

Boynlon wisba.!D undetstlm.t how human agtnain g.roups come l o ~ t on die llatl.Jtt of lt furo!'lgn poliq situalwn. in M 1991 pilxe (cita!he \l5e!i lh e Qffi;.iat m.wd Qf o ~ l:ornmit,tee hurings ro iIM:stigate h;iW comruitlee mtml:m$

INIe SimSIJ oí cur:ret'It evenn and poikies. By view·ing tht qucsnons aOO l'tSpOIIS6 in !he hcaring III ID

unfuldiflg llarnll:ive, Boynton k Jblt ID cl\att Iww'!ueming' crySlatli1xs fm táCh tOnllrul1t'e rucmxr,and lrow Ihq attempt to sh¡re 11m muning wilb

othe; n::embec; arul with tIlO5e woo al1e tf:r:ifying.Boyntonp.lS]ts h t , o n ; : e p t o f ' : i n t e r p m 1 ~ e lripk' as3

way ID undtn;w.."'Idnowronnectloru bctwetn facUMt

made througn ptauiblt interpretuion_tn dfta, J.!!'

,erliiningwru;h iflterprtlttiom are plausible ""i,hi¡¡fue social .:onten createcl by :he hearrngs..

K h o ~ ' s 1991OOol,Ana!agies,¡tWa.r,hllu similari,m but wilh a ditft.renr IOCus: the Ust of analogies

ro guide prQblem fruning by foteign pOOC) rumn.

In bu paItkular wúrk, Khong d e t n o n s t n l ~ MW

the use ofwnlli;.iir.g m c l o g ¡ ~ tu &ame lne pwblemoí vie'".mm  led to ooru::epllJal düfkuh:icc, ln groupteiUOniog aoollt poncyoptiolJ.'1. Tht 'Kcrea' malogygalm'Ó ilSlZndance in framing ¡he Vietnam probl.tlll,withoutsuffident ~ t t e n t i o n paid to!he incongruitie.>between the (wo sets of citcUfl1.!t!nCel.

Organizational process and

bureaucratic politicsThis 51'St period abo saw the emergence of a mong

1'e$ell.uh agenda thal examined the infiuenct of w-ganizational proctSS and bureaucratic politio r;nfr;reign policy decisiou·making. !he fulJndatiofiS nfthis appw,,-,h can be t r ~ c e d back lo Webds TheTheory 4.wdal a/ld Eamomu: Org,;¡nimtiQ/u (fromthe 1nOs). F ¡ ~ t period research mowed how 'ratton;¡]' foreign policy ITlliking Cilll be uI*ooed by the

attempt tri work with and through !uge organitedgovernmcntal group-s, Organizarions and bureaIXI:a"des pUi t.he¡r OWll Si.lrvival at thc top of lhrir list of

prioriues, alJd thil )unira! i5 rnasured by relalÍ'It

inll\Jellce vi; lÍ' vi. oilitr o ~ i z l t i o m Ctttrf), bythe OtgtniutWll', budgct. aud by the mora!e Q{ ir>

peMnlltÍ. Tht org:miution ltlll jtmw1y guard an¿m tI! im:rease its turf mi strength, as \\'tU n toP!estM unrdiluted whattt f«:ls tI) be i1$ ' e s ~ n u ' or':ni!\rion', !..argeorganizations also devdop wmdaráoperaling p t t : l t C t d u r t ~ lSOPs), wbkh, wmlt iIlIowingilitm ti) react refkrivtly dNpite thtir in!:re¡e¡1t un·wieldiness, ptnnidirtk fie:ribmty 01 creativity,ThestSO'" :na! be tile l.U'J.!.oitlgni i n n l ) ~ a t í v t ' oolu·ttoro; of k c ~ i o n :n1ktrt opa-fl.tlng al: )e\ft[¡ higherthiL."1 thf org:¡nlrotion, out tiltrr 1, litclt a h \ ' f l l 3 t l ~ID the imp!ementatioo of po&yby burtwq,¡q, ThtimtrtJ«: hctwetu obj«tive$ and implemenl81ion ¡sdir«:tJrrneu( tbis ¡x¡int, mdthere may bcwbst:anl.ial,¡¡¡;page bctween tlie due ro me incGmpm'bUlryoi!he p.!ayers' pt:tsper;tivt:S.

Althougb the il.IticulJitioo nI Ihis r e ~ a « : h agendaean be fOOnd in W'Orkl such M H;.;ntington, 1%0:H i l ~ l n a n , 1%7; N e u $ t a d ~ 1910; and &hillilll ctaL,

1%1, pmbOO1y the mmldtedW'Orkli areAllisou, 1971and Halperin, 1974 (additional wotk$ ro-authmedby Halperin include AllilOn Halperin, 1912 JndHalpcrin and Kantcr, 1973). In bis huoo.w Elsenr.c

o[Deruion, GnlhalIl iliOll olfe('j tbJee cut, al ex·plaining epi¡,ow: in roreign J X l I k y · ~ " t h c CubanMusHe Crisu of 1%1 r l l ~ t i n g both tht US andthe Soviet sides oí fuit "m:, A lu ihow:¡ lhar!heunitary talional \lctor modd ofrordgn [hllh.-ym.tk.ing

does nO! suffin to expla:n !he (IlrlOllitlt$ oí tlie cri,¡!s.

Offermg twu ;Wditiunal moddll as !lUctmive '{\lis' ale"lplanation. tne Ot¡¡aniutionall'tocell'i Modd and

the Bureaucraru: Politks Moad {olle QJ illtrnorg¡mi:t."tional fiK.tot:l, une o! L'ltetorganif.lll.iooal (actorJ).

al\.ow:¡ A l l i ~ o n to l'Xp'laíu more fu1Iy wlut trJ1U{1irtd.His use of t h r ~ levcll of anidysli allíO p<iin!1 to tht

OOlre In illtegrate ! ' 1 ! l ~ t:Itln S<'Sttpte UphlllaUollsat difft'l'ent iC'.'dll.

Halperin', \xxiii; lIi11?4ll(Tutlc Po¡¡tiQ 41!d &trt'Ígft

Policy (1974) an ememe!y d.eWJed a;r.aJgam ufgeneralivuwN: ahmrt ~ behaviour, K·

wmparuw by u.n!orgeruble ~ frilin Amuk":.in dcltnst p ú i ~ : ¡ r ~ ni tire ~ e . r ,Ml'1nedy. 300 íooruon rem. l! >hocidbe ootrd tha:ooreaucratic po.!itia ~ c h ¡¡;¡ired impt:tt:.s from

''l.,

Clla¡)ter1 Ttle himay e v o l u t i ~ ' o f J o t t i i s n ; ~

Ihe Vietnam Wu ongoillg during thi> period, beawe he WArms by !he public as adense policyfW l :amok ¿ut, in part, to bure!luoatic lmperatives(sre, f o r a a m p l ~ , K(aSncr, 1971).

Comparative foreign policyThOlre who loo!<: up lames R o ~ u ~ \ l ' S chaUenge to

buLd a cros.rnarional and multi-level theory of

fort:lgll polky and subject Ihat Iheol')' to rigoraggregate empirkal testing creattd the subfield

known fompuil1ive Foreign Policy (CFP}. It i5

ÍJ:l CFP Ihal we see rnost dlrectly th<: legaq of >cie n t ¡ s r n í b ~ v i o u r a l i s m in FPA's genealogy. Forelgn

policy ,ould not be iltUdied in awegJte: fordgcpolky uehal'iour could_ $(:m:nillg for anlnalogue lo

the 'vote' as !he fundamental exp1an1lJdmn in bdtavio u r a l i ~ f American politiwstudies, CFPecs propo>cd

the f u r e ~ h polky evmt ¡he tangible ~ r t e f ~ t cf theinfluence atielllpt that is fol"tign policy, altt:mativdyl'iewed III 'wbo d ( l ~ wbal lo woom, bow' in in

ternllÍonal affahi. Evrrm rould In rompilred aIong~ b a l ' i O \ J r a l dimcugioru, sllm as whether posür."t orneg¡¡tivt effect Wl\.l bdng tfuplayoo, or what i.rutnrrru:nts oi st/llec.!aft (diplomatíc, military,fCOnornia,etc.) wm n5ed in 1m: i n_ce artempt. Of lm:l

of C'omrruunmt of r(.'iOUlXtSwu evidenL Ikhavímlras disparate III il WIU', a !.reat)', and¡¡ stm'visltO')'.d¿

now be w ~ d ud vezare:! in a ¡h¡met¡<allymeaningful f.uhion.TM amceptllall:adon of ¡he ~ l far..abk

Yl'U tsStntia! to ¡h f !h.e<lryrw.ildíng:enterpl'Údn01'_

To unrorer uw-like: prnJiutio!\s' (l!'lt woo1d naVl'

toC$uduct ttmpfrkai. llCfoona!l<miapdacm.u

t\fn<: Clit ~ wett n.ot an dñdctltmet:luxioiogyfrQm thi> tlllndpoinl t!{}Wf\IC,wim the conuptru1lbreakthrollgh. of ilie 'evenl'. il: W1.l now possibI,tlO wl.!t:d &ta on a V'lrltry of poo¡iblt n:pIanilffityf;u:1Dr¡ aud determine {by analy$ins tbe vanlllCf in

the t"'H1üm' bcbavto¡¡¡a!.dimernlO111) the p¡ttm:ru bymn 1 f t n d ~ n I variables Wtre wmlateé.with forcign policy bfhavioor (set: MtGowm ami

Shapl.W, 19m. Wdeed. to talk ro wme >cholan in·volved in CFP !eUIlT;lI, il e t that thcir 19lal W".!li

OOthlnglesstbmll GUT{gr:md u¡¡ilkd !f¡fCrr) cfút

fureign po[¡cy b e h ~ ' V i o U I for I l 1 l I l ~ t i o n s fu, all time.Sorne$tI of master equation.>W()uld link RIJ tht'tdCIIanl v a r i a b l ~ $ . independent and dependcnl, logether,

and when a p p l ¡ ~ to mauh't d;Uaba5l1& providingvalues tOt lhese variable!, wo\lkl yida NqlllU'C$

approa,hing 1.0, Tnougb the goal Wi!!I pe¡haPSlht¡',{

iu il! iIfIlbition, 1M sheeT ~ l l O ! J 1 l Q U ~ l l e s ~ of he u'lkoilled mrth inuncnse effuru in ilieory u ~ d i r g . datacoUection, ami mtlhodclogkal illllóvation rha! m:ve

ftw paraUel! ¡n IntewatiOtlal Re1atiOllS.

Events data

TIle collectioo of ~ l l Ú dau was: fUl1dt:d tU 11 Iig-

nificant '*gree by lile United Stlte'J !!IWUIlmn¡f.

Al1driok and Hopple (1%1) estilllJlR that me ¡¡OV

emment (primaruy DcleJlS/..'Ad'lmad Resemh pI'\).

jW5 Agtncy Ihe National Scieru:e rounJationlprovided (Wf f $5 d o n fi)r tht: &vciopmC1lt of

ewnb dam sets d!Jring Ihe time peIWG 1%7-81.

G!nerally ipeaking. the ccU6:ttun dfurt I"'filt Uktthis: .stude.nts were employed ID romo tbrougb !leW1'

papea, dlwnoJogio, and odla sourteS rO! furtÍgnPQIícy evems, whkh me,'woold then roae aa:uMng!O !'1.1la lirud in thcir ooding ¡m¡¡¡¡;aJ&, han thcir_ , ~ , ~ fu< ~ tdUbil-íty, and fu1alll' ? W l ~ h th.cir codi»&t up on o o m p ~ rcaro¡. So. fu! eumple, ¡¡WIJ wantW te cede an t";rn!

such as 'l'he United $tates inva.óedAfgbaflistnn', wt'

would cede adate (DDMMYY'iY). theJctcr(UniledState$), ¡he mbject \Mgh.mistau), rutd 10mf code >X

mino!rodes tMl wouL:i indka!t' inVasiOll', Aseries

of rodes might work 1ike tt á !he code roI in,a;\\'lJlmightbe'317', !:he'Y indi::.aring iliis \Wahostileact.

the '1' inilialting it W3S a militarr acr, the'7' indic·ating in more specifu.: fashíon invasl(¡ll. Many o!herv a r i a h l ~ ((>\rlLals:o he ooded: fureumple, -..re mightco& that !he Unilo:! Nattoru; fuilitatW tbe ad: by.ponsoriug aSoxuriry <A\I1lcil Rerolution; we nlig:htEat in ptm(!lj$ c:vents ¡ueh IIIMuJIah Qmar's re.fu>allO IUro ¡n fhamabirl-Laden,arulro fum Eventsdat'lms, ¡Mn, (:ontlin thowmds oc rnnmillions oflinescf "ode, t<l¡;h ofwhkb lsa fureigD ¡JOlicy'eft:nt'.

Tnt acronyrru; {lf sorne of theae «mis data pro1M hve on: sorne b e c i l l J S ~ !he data are .Iill betng

: " : ~ : ~ ; l ¡ > ~ 1 ' i ¿ " ; ~ : j

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 ,, -- .. , ,_- : S ' ~ ~ ~ : r i ; ~ t : ~ ' ~ ~ , ~ ~ , , ~ L ~ , ~ , ~ ' :

collected (set', u r u a m p l ~ , Gerner et al, 1991}; oome ¡r idUgrflmJ rmlltikvd expIa:na:uons. Thc four lllQSt

colltaion ¡" ful1d.!dby tite DDIR (Data Development arubiú\}I,I$ or thest projtcts 'fIere th(l$e oi Michadtor Inlemationd Rt,loi'at;h)ProjCd ofme NSF,otlrers Bnxber, 19n and hlS ldmlte$ oí tite IBA Pro·becaus.e thec.ta ate .hIl usd'ul iU a testing gmundfor ¡ret (Wdkenfdd et d., 1980), of DON (Rurnmd,hypotheses: WE1S¡the Wodd EvcottIntenctiou StJl' 1972, 1977), oí CREON (East ti al, 1978; CaIJMan

V-I!Y), COPDAB (the ConUkt iII1clPnce Data Bank), ti al, J982), ¡nd of HaroId G ; . r e t : U r o w ' ~ INS (Gutt.CREON (CQmparauV!! Resea!ch on thc El'enu of tkow, 1%J), lndfptndent variables 111 SM'ta1 JewkN3tWru), aild ro f<:!rth. Kamas Evtnt D'la 5ysrem of i l J ' l d ~ were linh1i by throrellcal prOpoMtiofl5(KIlDS) is I!I(lI'e of ;l' sccond WilV-l! dfurt, in that üometimes ilntantiatcd il:l statistkal O! maLlemthe KJnsirt It'am ha$ devdopoo marome codmg of

allGu eqrutUOIl5) tú properties01

!)'pes oí foreign(\/mis, kading to much nw!t ¡tii¡¡ble lnd c a p ~ c i o w poliq'behavioUl. At Wll.bret or!he fuur atte.mpttddala roIJ.e,;tion aod roding !han W'.t, pooibk- in :he ID oonlirm or disronllrm tht propositioflll by g g r e ~ _ firot wave of e v t n t ~ d a l 4 (Sdu-udt, 1m), ateemplrica!testiDg. Unfortunately, the fa<.:t tbat tht

empirical.esul\$, Wtlt not al.I that had !leen ooped

Integrated explanations ror mhered in a period of dimlclU.nhnCfll with al!

Iltings CfP, as wc will!el: in a llIIer se«iort,In mntmt to tite otMr IWO !)'pe of FPA "hclar¡rop being dist;:Jmi, CFP researdl aimed apoody

The psychological and societal milieux offoreignpolicy decision-making

TM miodoi'lfotrign po!iq tn.aW Ílooü,ta/¡u/c Individual characterístlcsir rontains O)lDplu md intricakty rtlated inronn. would t h ~ r e be a distinct fie1d oí Foreígn Polic¡ration.Lfld palterru¡, $uch as belidÍl. atti::udes, valoo.

Analysls witÍlOu! thi!J mO$t mkl'o <lfal! t l p l ~ n ¡ ¡ l o r yexperieru:es, mlOIUlJU, c r l r i ~ styk, memory, oltíonal

kvt.!s? Arguably not. It is ¡tl \:ognilkm and ma.nd ~ d { . { l ) n c e p t i o J U , Euch decWon ~ r ' f mind i.;

formation pro..-.estilng of&1ld:Ua1 human agetll IIWam:Krocusmof the varillty pO$lIiliIe in agíVl'!n socicty.

all tl:e exptanatory lems \JfFPA are in reillity inttgCulture, history, geography,«onomks., p<l(itial irt n t ~ d . What.;ea FPA apart from ~ ma.JJ!stmmstitutioIl$, idt@gy,demograph.ics, iIIld n n u . m e " 3 h l ~ IRis th:is ¡ ~ e that, a.s HtTml'!1lIl and Kegley pulother facton shap: the I«ietai ronren in whkh the

it, '{aj rompdlil1B elplmlltton (of foreign polky)decition maker operate. .. The SpmulI! (1956. 1957, orlllot treat tite decide! aogt'J:tOoIdy' (1994; 4),Mld 1%5) rehmd tu thesu. thefliilieu ofdecis¡on,

PoIitical psyclwk¡gy can U$ iu undrutand·making, and scholarly emru to expInre thal miliea

ing the deddtt lInda certai., ronditions--highwere both .u;notallve- lttd t m p r t $ ' l i ~ du:ring thls first,tri5$, hlgh uucertalnty, dominant paJition of the

period, Mk.1atI Srecher':;,wotkcitedaOOve(1971.)bt·headofn.ttt in FPDM-tite ¡;mortal charucteristio

kmgs ín rlli; gt:rtot}'Pe a s wlL Brtt::her's The f(1l'(jgnuf the individual w<;¡u1d ooome crucial in under-

PciicySj'I'lfm oj'iuad aplol'liS th!!l nation'-s psrclto5tandinB f o l . policy dwke. 'lfork of Hatoid

cultunl n l ' i r o n m t : t l t m d itll ef{ect.s OtlJ$tael's fomgnLa:l.\wdl o n p u ¡ ¡ t i ~ leadenhip w , ; u : u j ~ t J n a u -

po[¡cy. Unlíke Bm:l.wr's integr¡Uvt apptoa,h ro theenu on man)' earl)' pio-netO' Q( polilkal psycho!Of,T

¡:Iol¡ych,h\óda! rnllieu, mos: 'lfurks m thú genO!)'pEWltt n'rerence to !ortiga policy (ste l.asswt:U, 19m,

cither exarni"ed the ~ aspfL'U of FPDM, 1948), y06l;ph de Rima') 'fhe PJYl'1wJagical Dimen·ti f thf broadeJ uietal a.!pKI!! of JI..

,-ÍQII q{ fQ(eig¡: PtAi..-) (1968) i!; 1!1 ~ ' l t ! ! l l ! : ' \ ' t y

Chapm 1 The !1ilrory ar\d u l t § t i éf" '

and inregration oC a r l y a t t e m p ~ In ;lppiy plo-yrMIo· first gener.atlon ot FPA. Toe wmk ofboth Rohertg¡ca1 and socia¡ psychologiccltheory lo foreign palicy ¡cm and Richard Cottam de;enrt special men

<:Ue$. Anúlher e<1fty eJIort al a SflItematk ~ t u d y af tion here. Je¡v]s' Ptt;;epM1l ami M¡rperceptitm il!

l«der penonalíty effects Js tite ooncept of optnt. InfC/"I'Wliorn.;/ hli:i4 (HU;) and CNtti,.>1l'S fMrig;:

liana! (ode, ¡n idea origlnating with l.cites \1951), Po1icy Mewario/!; A Getll.'!'dI Thro'Y ¡¡!ld óI Case

and relinetl aOO extended by olleofthe l!lO$l impott. Sl'IIilf (1r:7} bom explícate tru,. potmtially g r n v ~Jnt Jigures in thh a r e ~ of e S t a ! d ¡ ~ AlalItlder George, oo,uequen(es!lf misperu:pt:onin fureign p.;hq!itlJ'1%9. Dcl'ítling atl opi".utionalw& involves identt· ariOIl! byuploringiltrooK t \ e te r= stmlfgiest:an

fying the \;ore polltka! betid:! of :he leader abolir fatI c . a ¡ ¡ ~ l r o ? h ¡ u . H y tí misperuption oí the- other's\he inc\titability ohorúlict in the i1ortd, \he lNdeú u,te.ttlioru or motintions O«i.lf (Jite alro Holsti,

~ t i l l t t l k l l 1 ofhh or own POwtt ro clsIngt t'lents, N'orthand Brody's stirnWu.Htspoll':lt modds, l%8j.andso forth, as wdl a:; al'! exprorzMn ofthe prefmed Like Tanir.. Ha!perin, 100 others, the wt>tk of jerm= aud s:yie (tfpunuing goal! (:lee alhl johttwn. vi> and Cottam i!J oo.n.düudy pre;criptive:; buth1977; 0, HOOti, 1977; Walker, 197n rt should b( indJde advitt acd sugge$llOllJi mr polky maktt>.noled that ( ~ ¡ ¡ g l s ínfluence üll :tu: (¡dd i!J by no Wort: in L'>te late 1 9 8 0 ~ oontimung th.ís t r ~ J i t i o n in,

meano ron!illi!d ro hli work Q!l opmtional ~ dudtd s:cho!mhlp by ¡U f Gr-oo Slrin, Richard

ht ha, offimd u$efullllpons on methodologial Ntd Lcbo-w, Ole Holst:i, Alexanoo GMrge, De'

¡!lIues (see Grorge Ofl pt(JCC;!S tradng (1979), Oll: the borah Wdth !.anon, Betty Ciad, a.!'Id S«phen wal!

derneritt of am.lracl theorlzin¡; VeT$1l$ actor"specific (jeIYi$, I.ebow, and Stein, I'}SS; Martha Cotum,theory (see George Snw!«:, 1974 aud Goorge, 1936; Grorge and SmQu, 1m; 0, Holsti. 1939;

H93), and on the need tu bmJgt the gap betwtn I.ebow and Stcin, 1m Lar:son J935, 1993; Glad,

Ihcoty and priKtkc in furdgn po!ley {$re Grorge, 1989; Wi!¡, 1992). An excellcnt ru.mple oí wúrX

1993. 1m). m titi& period indude that uf Ridmd HerrmanuT'I.tf' work of Margarft 0, Hecmann is ~ ¡tn (1985, BU, 1993), who devdopted a typo!ogy of

mempt to typologize ¡rMit:-t with spm6c refettlk:c stmotypical ima:ge$ willl rcl'trence ro Sovict: per

to fQf1:ign politrdispoY,tions,A ) ' c h o l o g i ! . t h : y t r a i n · ceptlOns (tite Qtht-r al- 'chijd', al- 'degecmle', cte.)¡ng, .he wa> iIlsoinwj'((din aCFP pttlject (CREON). and. u atend hi$ aniIIysls ro fue Ullagt$ hddHQwtVe.f, the uut ofher reseatch ¡,!eaders'perrunal by otner mttioru, Ílldudi¡¡g Amerll.an a.nci blamkdlarmeristics (!97Q, 1918), Using 3 modiC,oo oper· images.atlonalrode framew:1:m conjW1diiin with oonttnt The work on r o g m c i ~ coMtramt$ was infmme¿analysis.!.he is abk ro romp!reand omtnutb<kn' by the WI);K "f 'lCMlats in ome.r fte'lrls, indlJdlngbelid'$, f1l<)uvatiOIls, dtd.liona! styIes. and inttrp€' Ihat ofHerxn Siman (1985) un boundcd rational50flal $ty\e$. rurthe¡more, Hell1Wltl inttgTates ity, He'-lef (1999, but written 1918-S6) on wgnitive¡nioonatioll: ¡nro a m ( J f ~ h o L s t i t p l a u r ~ ofthe It:adu, bid>, and Kahneman, SIoYk, ~ n c i Tversky (J.9S2)

wtw may bdmltl tu Orle ofro: lfutinct <fureign pdtcy on neunltlc mO L Many omer unp;rrunt rogniu1Ie

orientations', Orie.'1U1Íllil aIlows her ro mUe m o r ~ a.nd p>ycl¡ologictl ~ l u d i e s which carne fiirth duringlpedftc projecríOlll abolIt \eader's hthmoU! in tite 1971li 3nd ear1y 198125 d!i!t W.th a ruvrnity oía ",¡rie!)' of drcUJns!Ulct1. L'1 the SE<:ond w\lve "f i1IrtOf$: ffioUvnthmi ( ) f k ~ d t n : ( B J r b e r , 1972: Wmter,

rtsemh, schoJlat. beg¡rn to aplkitly compue arul 197); EtlterNgt', 1973}; cognillVl map:>, mlp!s,

,ontrd.St  the ~ ofdúferent petscmahty a ~ a.nd ~ h e m a s {Sbapl:o and &nhillll, 1913; AuJ..men! schemes ( W ~ n t e r t Hermano. Wcintraub, and roo, 1976,Cari:xlilell, 1975);wgr';tive styk (SuedfddWaiker, 199!; Smger and Hoo.wn, 1m; Snare, 1992; an¿ Tetloá, tm); i f e ~ m : ~ ofkadm (Steww

l\I!e also Pn'l1:, I9'JO; Witlter, 19m. u"" 1977), and othm. Goo:! eruted coiIeaioru oC

Tbe role of pem:ptiOIl$ and image. tll rouign !he time indude Heotwmn (l9n) and Fwwwpoliq W;l$ a vtry important rtstarm ¡opta in Ihis- (t9i9).

,.;-: , . , · ~ . " ; " i i 1 " ' _ : : i A ! J " ~

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,22 VIJerle M " ~ " H ~ ' d 5 D n · : ' . > _ , , ·

Natíonal and 50cietal

characteristic5

lW Ho1sti's tblddltion of natiCllla[ role (Qncqrtkmtpans bclh Ihe j»¡'tbologltal amI the oociaI mi!.ieIl{l9701' Wjth tills ,cr..tept. Hclsri oeeks te aopllJrthowa nation V;ew:I llself ami its mle jI) tbe ínter·oooonallrena, Opel'lltlrmalIy, Hols:ti turru lo e J i t ~ptm:pO;)M of natiíonru tolE:, arguing Ibat rbes< ptt'

ceptiom are MgU"ably mare :;alient to rorcign polkychoice, Pmept¡on of nationií role is also iniIu"tnCM bY ~ o c i e t a l chara,ter, a product ;)fthe Ilaliem's

1 o d ~ l i 1 A t i o n prnte5l DifferellO':s here lan lead t;)

differe:l(es ín nanoml bdul'loor i1'l weU fortnmpk. Bobrowel i!l., 1979, Brodern:m, 1961; 11'!Ui,

1%", Mmlmart, t969; Renslwn, 1m), lile melb·odclogy{¡flIatWnll role cmlcepttoo wa> tontinucd inthe 19a!is by Walker (1987) wd othen n " { i ~ i l , !98!l;

CoUtm and Silili, t9'l2; Shih, 1993).

lile studj' of wJtw:e ;B an irnfeperu!enl variablealfectil\g fOIcign P<Jliq WlU jU81: heginr.ing Íl } beredmlopell tJeir tire- end oí Ibe 198ü1, alter pe'tering OUt ¡ti fue 19605 (Alrnond and Verba, I%};Pye and Verba. 1965,. Culture migbt an ef·fea on cDgl'lition (Motokawa, 19119); it migbl hmrmüfications for ,tructur<!rion of¡ ILl(itutJons sllCh asbl!JW}(t,iCies (Sm.pson, 1937). OmHkt T<rolntlon

tedmiquesmight be differentfDrdiffi.-rtnt culhlt!S, a;¡

\!IclI (CuM:man an:1 K¡ng, 1985:; f\rt, 19M; GacOOtn,

19S9i. !ndred, Ibe very r r ~ of p<Ah-y m ~ k ·ing mlght be :;tamped byone'5 ,u1tllra! heritage andl i x i l l i u t i o n í H c l l a n d . I 9 S 4 ; F l b ~ e r l g t , 1985,Ltmp

ton, !t¡&b; MtTt:Imafl, 19M; f-wrg, 1967, VO!Ji ¡¡¡¡d

D ~ , 1992; Banerju, mil.

The ~ t u d r o-f rok of C { ~ a I group1lJl fortis»poliq m.tking can be oeen ai an oul%rowUt ¡¡[ l>te

more advanced ,tudy of societal groups in A..'lleru:andornestk politics, S o m e t i m e ~ an individual 8cholar

Lt1ed theory developed ro, Amencan (aje lo ex·plore the mort d!vet9;: untvme (lfthe internllllOnals y ~ r e m : for e)WJJp!e, it W't! M(:J.:l't Dabl's vo]ume,Regona ,ttd OpPOSlhl)/1$ ([973), üut pro'l1ued key

theorttica! roucepls . e < " ~ ll:l mmfu ,1¡e wtation:!llip between o o m ~ ! Í I . : poLtka! preMUI't by $Xiellligtoups an.i forcign po!ky dlOke bYlbegoverrunem..

Other more rountry- and re-gion--1pecilic (;ISt ¡tud·

¡el Wl:te also de'ldoped: see Cbittid:: (1970), Da1·

lin (1%9L DeulXh etal. (1967), Hellman (1969),HUghe.l (1978), and Ogata (1977), ~ m o n g othr(';>J,

In ¡he ¡¡¡te 19811;, l Ilew wavt' of thiukJ:ng began toaplore ¡he llm1.u of sta,e auoonomy in re\Jtion tom:her 1liXitta! groups i,1 the (QU1"$t! of ~ milking.Tbt wu-rl <Ji l'n!nam \l988¡ on tbe twiHevd gme

of fordgn and domesUc policy wa.! paradigmatk

roe ~ i ! h l í : l b i n g major lf.JeStioru of th:u ~subJiekl. Olhu cccllent wark indude1 Evw el al

(1985), Larnborn and Mumme 09iJ9), Levy (1981:1),

Lcvy aud Vakili (J!}S9), Hagan (1987), iU1J:I /&$.

tanduno, Lah, arld Ilcenberry (l9!W'J. A ~ e c o n d waveoi resean:b In t.,l¡is are! can be sem in fue work of

Van Ildlto [993, Skidmore and Hudson, 1993, andK.1.trbo, 1991 ($ee also Bw::no de Mesqulrn ¡nd La!·

mm, for an L'lreremng rombinatio-n of game

L ~ r y and FPA le u n d e n t ~ u d ool!lC.itk JXllitictlI!np(ral:ivesand thcir clfe .:t00 foreign policyl.

The second wa'« work (jf Joe Hagan Ó!!$et'VIS

special note. Hagan ( lmj Iw eompiled ln f.XI?m·

!ve dalabasc 011 !:he ~ m i ( m and vulnmbilityof polit:<:al regimes, with sp«:;¡j ~ « n c e !o e:te<'W

, ivo:ll¡:gi!!lative ~ t r u c t u J e s . Thr50et inr;lud.es r:inety-fuurregimes for tIlirty-eighr natioru ove! a ten-ytar

petind,Hu purpose I,to e-xplore tite dteruofpolitkalopposirion en foreign pulilYi:boke. Using aggregatem.tlStk31 wty;is, H gan a h l ~ t03how, fur cumple,tlut tllt interna! fragmen\llrion of a ~ Iw subsliIntimly le;¡ effectD[j f o v : ~ polky beh¡vlOUr Lhan!l",ilitary or par!¡' opposition ro the rewme.

Domestic politicú impetltiVe! ooul¿ aW be M

C!!rWn.old by pmbing elite anci mm opinion (i!VÍ14

piggr-bading onro ¡j1f: lIOphi>ÜOl1ed vottr·attirode:rtudtes of Ameri-WI poliriol). Thoogh wually «I!l-

fillcd te .>todito of demornri( nftÍOll1 (espv.iallyArnerl(a, where s ~ ~ re>u1ts \Vere abundiUlt), these a J l a l ~ ~ wete WiCd 10 investlgate lhe

l':mirs of the soTcalled AJmor:d-Lippmm consenjWj;thal is, th3t pubJi<: opinion \$ incolldfnt and lack,

lBg unity on f o r ~ i g n po&y issues, e:nd thl1$ tlrutpllbl:ic oplllion does nol ruwe a IarKf i r ¡ ¡ p a ~ t On

dIe 'l2tlon's rondntt oí rorcig:n poliq {ie: AlmolJd,1950; Bai!ey, 1948; CW'llpbe:IL COll:l'mC, Millu, and

", ; ' ~ , : " , : ~ ; , ~ ; ' : i : 0 ) ± , ~ ¡ ~ ~ , . " j l1 The hlsta"f imd ~ 6 r t Qfrorj¡¡g¡; ' i c j ' ~ l ~ i í } , ~ t ) l

" ...: ' ",',¡,.;::,..::,-o:,..'l:.{t;¡,:,;;,.,

Storu, 1%4; Cvnmse, i!IM; Uppmar", 19)5; andLips.et, 1966). Opinion $tlI ,nUtKtro during Hu:

Vietnam War perkld sppeiln lo taye SUl'M al a

catalY;l 10 re-eT.\J11ine thls q u t ~ t i o n . Caspa.')' (1m)

and Acben (1975) tound more :;tabllfty in Alller

kan publK opimon (onmning (oreign policy andinlemaoonal invoNtment tllan tbeit p r ~ d e c a l o ~ .MIltller {1973) USt'd the Vietnam War ro show that

a ¡ t h o ~ fue publk l!1Ili' d\iIflgt tht'ir opin¡oru on

inlmlaoonal ,ssue, lbey do :\1) fm raOOm) Cea>'

HoMi aOO Rowlau 0979) and Manddbaum&hncidcr (1919) use !UNey dzu lo ídentilf re

oogniuble idoological poYtlQM to wb;,;:h

subSi:ríbl'S on foreign polx:y Wlues. A!arge ;lffiom;tof mfIU,h Wa!l: IlndmrulllO sll{¡w mll public andelite opinion does ~ ~ c t govern!'!1Cl\ttl fur€'ign policyderuion-rrutking CantrU, 19ó7¡ Grnber, ]%lj;

Yankelovicb, 1 9 1 9 : H u g h ~ , 1978; BeahndHindiey,1%4;Verba,wdBrody, 1970;an¿Verba et al., 1967).

The studyortbe tfk,;¡ mmt\Oflfll attribnte¡ (úze,

Wf<IlIh, politkal acco-untabüity, «onorruc ~ : i l e m ,etc) on roffign ¡mIiqWJI ,etUinIy, in;1 thMreticalsense, in the Sp¡OUl: genotrJn', but Wl!S Qrried outby xholal1 m¿ with method.; moJe lo be pta,eü in

lhe Rruenau I!fJ\OtfP€ Uf you e:clude pre-Rosenauwriter!;$uch a . ~ l e n i n ) . Tilepropeuity to btin.clvtd

in "lar W'a1I1iUallj' tbe!imJgn poTh."}'&pendentmi -abk of cboke in thit wo:k (itt E J ~ t , 1973; Ea.u andHennann, 1974; Kear: and MeGOW;¡¡l, 19'73; RllI'1l

mel, 1972, 1977, 1971); Salrnore and Salmore, 1971!;

for a ! r u : m ~ bolistic !ttatmen!,:lee Korany, 1986). Ate

luge rutlonJ more Hkt1y 10 go ro war tban smaJl

n i l t r o n s ~ Are rkh natloru more likely to go to war:han pooroll(jl M4uthorltlrian regi.mes mOrí bd

lÍl:w: than Utl11OCr$;;ml Swütieal marlipulatmn ofaggrt'g3te dara, al oot ! blunt lnstrvn'.ent-. wa.: 00 -

Jble lo uor.om any la:wliU gene.'llIiutiop.s on thisscote {thocgb rot an intn'e!ting and luroT!o-d;¡l:$ify

treatlmn t 01 tbe multill.'VclGlWCS aOO d e o ofWif,

:;et Becr, 1980- Pv1itiallXOllOrny rnear.:h or. tbedfects of IXOn\Hníc- 5 t t l l ~ t ¡ ¡ f e $ !nd ¡ ; o n d i t i o n ~ onforeign poUt'{ choice ate rúdy raJe: the 'culrJn' orIPE and the 'culture' of FPA did no! mi! well, fm

,eM<)J\$ el?lored below. 1!owen:t, the worlcs of NeitR l c h a r ¿ ~ o n in<! Charlea Ktgli!j' {se:, for exampk,

Ríd!3rdson and K ~ e y , 19!ro) JM o[Ptlet Katmt

steln (su, fu:wmple, KatMutcin,I98J)ar"noubleas exceptioM to this perilin!km.

Howi!Yer, in tbe leo:md w a ~ t p-!n, one n o ~ b l te=ptiOlt te the aboYe wly>JS bun¡ furta uponlhe : ¡ u , n ~ demoaatlc peue theory. Dernocra;;ÍI!s, irwas noted, t ~ n d nGt t!) fight Olle another, thoug.'l

thty H[I,ht non-democratic c o u n t r i ~ as. ofien as otile!non-demomcttlOdfl, T h l s a p p ~ r c d to bean example

ofhow adifti:rence n i t y ' Y l ' e Icd tú adifference infctcign pohcy !xlulfiQUr{Rru.>tlt, ¡ g o j 3 ~ , bJ, hM

ill1 i n ~ bridgitlg quolHm for FPA mi

IR.Why do danocn:¡¡;\(, nO!:!itA one anoiher? Hm_ fin¿ mote .!rac! tltroriá ofWJf (MmJ1t andZinnes, 199J; M{¡rgan, 1m: Bremu, 1993; Di:rO\l,

1993; Ray, 1 9 9 3 ~ Mam ¿nd Ru$Sttt, 199:» wrestlingwitb aqui'tttion Illat Iewh 1lK>11 ¡Ilto FPA wafm andmio ,0nffrY<lion wíth FPA :!\:holm (Hagan, 19%

Hermanll and Kegler, 191'5).

Finally, ii it ¡$ po!Sibk to se.: ¡tic intl:mattonalsy;te\l1 as p;1ft of fue pS}'Cho-social milieu in whki1

foreign poIky decision-nlwng t!kcs place, fuen ¡he

wurkci mueh of mlÚnstn:am IR iJ.t thi$ tIme can beas; rontlJbuting to the foreign PoIt.l' ,l;,.naJysLS

teJeardl a ~ n d a , 'T'he ~ l f e c t s of type, a;¡ elucidated by Kapl&n (1957, 1m), may depend fin Lit

n u m ~ r of polt1 In !he symm, the distributlon t i

power among o l n , wd !he ru1eiti the spttm g¡¡rntthatpcrroititi l1l1Ilntenlm;\\ nis lt:-cKtu..-e may"thend e t m n l l ~ 10 a Jargc e:ttenllm:: rang¡: of r n U ! S ¡ b t efordgn polky bcltaviour of ruuons. '!IIllrk oíWaltt was extreme/y intllle-ntiaJ in ils d e ~ c r i p t í o n of¡he ~ f f e c t s o f a n anarchical world >ystemon the beh;,ViOUfOfit3 membcr t a ~ i (see also Ro¡,¡:crance, 1963;

Hoffinann, 1961; Singet et aL, 1971\ Foreigrl PoliqAnalYSHsetrned not lO empwllethis rypeofexpLmaton, p!1l1l11roy WU:le :he rniatioo ID b t h ~ v i o U I

lbe time when ct'rtain ~ l e m i s malntllinooanAOl be txpIaírued byrefmna :0 rystem mucture

~ ! h e .trllcturt hu no! t h a n ~ E ~ Mof that YlUianon ml!S! be ful1!ld lt IDwcr ievcl$ of

ar:alySt. where variallon in the '4lIwJtio:u can bt

i d e n t i f i ~ d . Bere, ttl<!n LS one of ,evnal soorres furrbe f10tJble lack oríntr.gtalion b e ~ n ~ c t o r ..wmcralsptelll$ Iheory In IR and FPA.

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FP A self-reflection in the late 19705 and 1980s

A period of critiod .;cii-tcllectioil began ro tht rontext witbtn 1 n3!lon-state contributts to its!ate 197()¡ ana OXIonued unti\ the mid 19!i!11 in B o l ' f ; ~ m : r u m b . l palicy maklng (wheíhtr domesti\: orFP A, Tht dI'ñ"1S were felt unevenly 3CWSS FP A; foreign) ts. perfortc, tbf' do!1tain oí compmtiveCfP wal affected the most: it i< hete wc $Ct the ¡XIlitks.ll  bopefulIy not 'Onff\Wer!.ial. to aVtr 1h1l

l'tlO$t pruning, b!;th lhooreticoil and mctlwdologiuL tht tbeories AOO m e ! h ~ of campatauve polilh in~ h will bt fe l mometll In d«isíon thíspcricdwm 001quile J.> llighiydevdoped.as  

romog otudies, Ihere w;t:S • perlad or U!htr slow of~ Y " h o t o g y - Tht

attempt tll grdft' ~ c i e m l f i c '

statgroW!.:'l .fue lO ~ t h o d o \ ( l g i u l <:oll:ikler.atlon!. Tbe istkal anaIyses orvarían" Mio tbe underdevclopedinfuc;1lation requirement$:o wnducl a high tt11ality rhrory oioomparMh-e politks of the 1970s and ¡91ros

gtOUfl Qt bUr<!ilmr.ttit JllaÍyl& oE fcreign pcl¡q Will a faiJu!'t. Mort : ; U { m ~ f i ~ \ffl'l! dfQrts to spinchola are tremmOOUl, If Oile wtre not pan oC eoong romparative pcliucs work On iI p a r t i c u l ~ rthe group Of oore:¡ucracy in qllemon, d e t ~ i ¡ e d ae· nMkm ro the "1111\1: of 'lFbinír.g t 1 c t o r ~ that ctll'l-rounti ofwhat t:ranspired. prt'ftnbly ITom a viIl'Íety Inbutl.' lo that !llInon'j fon:igo pelky-fur UJílIpIe,of prillW'Y J.OUlce viewpoÍllts, would be ruxer>.W'}'. b(¡rrowing uxhruqw áom American polir';a ($tlC1l

Be<;ausc 01 s.te11tÍt)' romideratloru Íi:l foR'ign policy, as PUoUí: opinion SUffi'ys) lo study dcmatk pelitsud! inlimnation U. usually not anilable fur many io:a.l í m p m t í \ ' ! : ~ In tbe US M fureign pclicy i ~ u ~ .ytil1$ (e.g.. Ulml dcda.'\.\.iLed). The quesdon factng sUll m i ~ l I l g mre the wnctptuil and mctbodokvdeci.irtm· mmng icholarn b«arne: b it pooibk te> be gtcallooll o ~ ~ to ¡mm me ;\rtíf.cial bmlct'tbcnreticaJlyand pdicytdeuU! íf one \s rcltgattd to bctw<;eTI com¡¡;.¡rntivt po!iucs and mte;naConal ¡eb

ooillg=e$tll!lítsofennts twenty or !IlO!tyean oldl liOflS lhat sl)mied the<)ry dcvdopment Oru: I'lf t:'leIf ;1), how'! li nm. how ís it ptlMiliIe lO manoel.lITl: grearm kaps forward ¡n lJ.,x prdenl period of Forlmuoo tIle high dlta reqwemtnll lo say SO/ruJ- eígn Palier Mdyois is !he inn.:»al¡ve work?11gllll ontting rneaningful about more reten( ~ e n t # (Se! roncept1.lalizl1lgtlre 'twoIenl game' (PulI\aro, t98ll).

P Ander,<;On, 1m,) xhvl:ars wrestling witb thi$ í$- Al¡ me!\I:!Omd, ComparatM Foreig¡¡ POlicysue camt Uf' wíd:. tw\:l buie re>pOII¡¡e¡; (a) plll1erns in dwindJed irJ !he ¡S81)s. [ndeed, tite ver¡ term ' C o m ~group/buruumtk proct1$1$can beiso)lated thtough pmtiYe Forelgn PDlíq' WoiUl t» .ound qua:int!mwncalwe ¡¡tu¿ia, on!he huil.ofwhkh both gen· a."td naive, Membership in tite CDmp;tr:mve FOí'tr.ll p r e d i < t m n ~ oíand pra l recOlT1r!lendaliolh fw eign Pclky Sectwn (lf thc Lltema1:touci S ¡ u d í < : ~?re:¡ent i.hy íomgn poJicy ¿ecisiOil·making can be ASSOCl,atlOO pbtllil1.eted, Publ!;,. virisa:tlons lookrnade; and ()) innOY!ltive al'a·diswM ill¿ic;¡lDr, o! place. whlk Ro.enau ge:wtypt: dtyle K h o j a r ~ b i p be~ grouplburell1Q'!.CY proceso cm be ¿evdop<!:d, th'tle SLan:e. Both ~ y r n p a t h e u , lnd unsym¡ntltetkwt.kh allow for more ~ í f u : eiplilJlationiptOOia:ion {fib(ÍJm abounded (ltt, Ashley, Hi6, 1987,Ca·01 resulriUlt fofl!Ígn policychoke. PQrll$o el; al., ¡S87; F.ut, 197$; Hermann;ll!td Ptarodt,

FPA work It L>t.: p:sy¡:holqt,ica( levei ;;.rrwlly ex· 1987, Keglq, 1980; Munt()1l, 1976; Smit.i, 1981). At

pandté ¿'Hll'lg thi:; time perírn.!, (mI wcrk ar one pomt, in tlal;penuion, Ktg\t'Y{1960'. lZ,hímstlf>O(ieta! leve! arsuably runl.nb:tdd on sorne re.'íe1lch a C::Per) chkies, 'CFP mI> bting Iabelled a \:ült oífronK The r=n (oc thís blfurclljon í!l. óe geno' mcthodologkal flage!lomaniacs'.typl W1t$ A e t ~ i o g i c a l one: pqr;hology providetl Ihu searn::g critki$m ami sdí·críticism revealedretldy'nwll.' lnd dfecrive IOOLs fur the Sillar oC polit .1 [lI.lmht: oE ¡u,omísttncies :n lM CFP approoc..\io1 pty.:bology; políti¡;:;J >citr;te ¿id no! (lHer fue whkh n e ~ ¿ e d tu be SOrted mlt before my PfogreM

fureign polícy L'IlIlpt !he same a d v a o . t a To ll1l- .;ould be wnremplattd Tbe 5tumbling blm.ks: :,,"derstan¿ how íhc hroad.er  ~ o : ; i o - C \ l l t u n l 'f'Olítlcal duded tite Ibllowing:

ChapteJ 1 ''hié, tí:citmi',- ' ~ ' ' ' ' ' ' < '

~ ~ ~..."',';''",,,'

1, Ya;; Ctl'Ú han )'IM ji(lfrimWly ¡¡M 141 it wo. to 00 'lirncnu lo the ~ I . i m c e (;FP ro'Jght lo ~ a p Tae remion bttween Lbe desir( of 9Jme CFPm roy ture, OVen bcgan to c l wbtther their met.hotB

a hará $Óence-!ikt: grana unilied t1lOOry and the ~ 'ftre aidíng mero in adúevÍllg tbcir thcoretical goaU

i\ImplÍcn thal mkTtl-ltvel delaÍ! i.! necess.ary lf O!lf Oí preventing them rrom erer achieving tIlOO" goals.

reallrwantl to explaíll andpredictfureignp<iliq be- 3.AjiHillinW'lIÚletlcy c,mtl'ld)1If"llicy ~ l l c e . N

l:JoNio\lr ~ ! 1 ~ uobo:a:rahk. ROlitmu'i '?fl':-f!le»rleJI' mentloON carlier, CFP haJ reah'td aluge Itt,IOUIlt

Mtide, wben r>:YÍewtd [mID !hi$ Yantage point, r¡el$ of moneJ llom ¡he ~ t lO ,reate evrut

!he ~ Z l o t y p e up .ror 4f j inevitable dilemma almu: dala set.!. CF!" fe$eillchen. sucus.fully argued that

parsHTlony. To l1ltal ~ h o u l d "fe Mpiw: ridlly de.. such an. in ...estrnenl Wlluld yicld lJúormalion ofnse

tailed, r o m p r e h ; : u ~ ¡ r e t y r e ~ a n : h e d Il1lI:ro.. l n a l y s e ~ m íoreign po]u:y..rnakers. Sp«mcaJy,~ e Z l t s

¿ataof a few '!IW. or ronceptll2dy abstra¡:l, pmimoni· woold be used lO 3d up urly wamÍllg ,y:o;tems tbll

OU$ Jt;ltisti<oorna theroa!kal rtru:k:ringx nf toou>ands would a1ert poJicy lnWrs to c r i ~ a in the mlk

clmntsl Qne .:an see lile prnhkm in de:!irillg !kM)' ¡¡lg around fue world (as ¡f t h ~ y do rmt alto rred

d ~ l a i l e d , compMw:inly rese"lt'chM micrnaniliY$e$ me same WtlW..':l from whldl M nU &ta comel).

cf tbuusands ofeV't'n!!: alifetim( wculd be ovcr be Computeri;wj Jedsion akk aud lllalyS1S p a ~rore a tbeorin had oo1m.ud enoogh data to 00 1M with t d l l a l ~ aCfO:lY¡:::u began. lo appear-EWAMS

(1l5J: biS ' r u n ~ BlJt ma..1y CFPm rC'lecte.:! t.Ire C3)t (Early Warning lIl1d MonílOrlng Syttcm}, CASCON

Mudy approlKh ;B ullscienlinc an¿ too mudl iíkf (Computer-Ahled S r 5 t e m . ~ ror HmdIing lr.forma

L'te SQit, anerdola! reswcl1 nf tite 'tndjlionaliSlS' tlM 0:1 Local Confikts), CAC1S (Computer-Aided

(Kegley, JljW), CFPerl wanted te be bo:haVÍ(lurJi Contlkt lnformatiOtl SY1tem), XAlDS (Crisis Mm

ut} tncl lo be iCientific, tOO a hal.lmark of fuis W'41i tgemeflt tJ:crutive ~ í . u o n A i d s ) (su Andriok and

aggregate em¡.¡iricaI ttstlngci cross-mtio:rtal.lyapplic Hoppk, I'*in_ U;¡fortun;¡tely, mese wuld r.e'itr IiVú

ab\( gem:nUiutiona a c r o ~ largc Ns.ílci. At !he same up t(¡ theírprom: me ,o!kcool mntS rould be hadttmt', they ' I 'tre iiw:el)' rom.mitted 10 IJnpacking the fromotl:er oourcesaml wtre f l O t h ~ wilhout the:

blW: bOl: of decisian-rruWllll' lO !he detail (lf !heir tltecry lo explalll ;md predia their <Xtun'ena:. TLe

exp!mam grew, ;ind w:tb ¡t, tIlelr rejectinn ofknet methlldological pa."ad::'lXt$ flplicatl!d ab<m t'f$ulttd

jcrk ideali1.iltíon of parsí:nooy, Pusb ha<:! te tOmf 10 in tntorr tbat W1t!l.«lJck, by iIJld large. at !he level of

Uloi't at.sorrA pó1l1!: CFP:nethods citmanded Pln¡· globally ¡¡ppJicable but $peciiícally Y¡¡.Ul:lI1li biVl1.rtate

mOlly 111 thoory; CFP themy demamW nuaru:e;md iPltraliution'! ruch as tl:at 'brge nalioll.'i pArtidp

&tail mmetbod ~ t J : more in lnlm'\lltirutal immaioru: t:han small

2. 10 q,lIanrify ()j' !lO( ((1 q ~ a l l r i M A toroll.uy  nalion'!' (le!: McGow.m :md Shaplro, J.973'. Again,

oí large N·m.e ~ t i u g i,¡ tfu: netd ro: r.lOr<! pre CFP kltllld iudf pnlled in two oppoatd direcciona:

ásr mea;urement af d ~ t a ; ¡nd.:.ro, quantification wa ¡ tl:e resenrcb ¡¡olt! ro Si)' something prtdictin

oí n r í ~ b l e i ¡, úos;:ntial in linear regressiM aJ1ci aboul asp<'$ ¡¡at!oo Jl a;pecitic time in a pi!cifu:

í:Orrdation ll"d1nique..Il>

weU as lo malOOuttictl5.el of c i n : u m N n ~ (whieh W<luld be.y policy

manipulatious, su.ch ill differenrial tquttlons. How rdennt, bU! whk.h migbt d()5t[y rmmble lhe out

rnr, J..,e independt'ntvaríablesofCF? iru:luded sudt ¡mt ofa tradiríonal country apt:rt)? Or "fas the goal

ncnquanúflables a. pen:q¡¡;ion, mem:cry, emolÍOu, a gtand unified theoty (whkh \ffluld !lot be my

ccilure, bistmy, al! placed in a Jyuam:tc an¿ pohcy t d e ~ a n t , btl( whkh would qualli'y }"IU as a

evolving 1t:mm uf h:.unan ¡¡(tioo aOO lUL1to..'l t.'mt scie.rlWI alld a g.:llflalirtH Attempu 10 (\!Xompli.sh 

mighl nOl be adequatdy upturtd by arithmetic both witb tbe same I1!1atch ied to prodaro :hat

b;1!itd r e l a t í ( l n ~ s . To nlch nonquanrifí¡¡blc wm urnat8f'a1.'ory in asthoIlll:ly ¡¡s welJ as a poikyl t ! l . ' i ~ ,a l . t o r ¡ yariables OUt setm$ ((l defcat tite vrry

putpOse ofmicroanalysi.t,to lem them ill byforcing Hindsightlsil.;'w;;ys lOaO: it d(leslimlldeariu ret·

!he datll int(¡ qtwHnlerval !m! i g e o n h o k ~ w::ms w ~ that cbange W;!j necesmy. kfr bthind were

! ~ - ; ! y ; t _ - ' " i _ ~ " - ; ( ' - " : " - - '

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"'" '. __ -'¡v,"J":'" " '''tt:'r:\í'' ~ , i i ~ . "-:.'; e h ~ , , " : , _ ¿ _ - ' : , ; , ; ~ : > c _ , , " - : > - - " . ,,

{I) tlJt aim \)f a grand untlied Ihecry, and (2) tntmethodolog!w ~ t r a i t j a c k e t impo!k"li by tht teqw'remtllt of aggreg;¡!e tmpiricJJ tesDng. 10 1%0, Kegley

~ p o k e uf tht nwi ro cerne clown {v;¡m the rarifredait of grand íhtory 10 middle-ra!lgt t.i)r(¡ry, aud to

caplJI'( mM 01 ,he pattkultr:

"T O ¡1J(tl..fd p a 1 . l . l l i ~ g no! !.t Id:! complet!!iy". Goo1s

{shou'd !)ej ~ r a : f u í w better 1ft ~ j ~ ; .. .Thii ¡lfM(TIGe> ,M.Jctron ih ltlr lnf;I

/ji ~ r . r ; u i t ) 'sooght, w tIl., more cont&tu.IiY'¡¡Jiildle.l, ciltwm,t.ll

hJ!iy b G ~ n r : l e ! l , 1I1j 1i'ft'l¡mr;¡Iiyh¡¡.otd)Mif'X;ifell p ~itiOI\$ are te¡red Mofe ct lhe 1 ) I ! I : ~ I I ~ r , umqut, .irO

¡rntnllJr t·¡n be r : ~ p W r e d . ! l ¡ 1tllUttd Ie\el Ofat»trllC!j()l

anagl!(wllity" ~ . 1 9 ¡ l ( i , 12.19)

Tú be f.¡ir, ¡his arguably Rostnau's originalaím, lIld !he CFP community hild lo r ~ J ( hwnseruus lo return lo 11$ roundll:g visiono Ibt(onfmn¡;,¡ ou Ntw Dimtioo5 io the Sludy of FtlxignPo!iq, hdd it Omo StaIC V n i v e r ~ i t r m 1.'11' 1935,

probaMy repmen!$a finill1.ation nI Wtstdange. for

ti«: CFP grtIup (see !he resuIllng ~ i . l l u m t . Hermaatlft .. 19!P; see al:so Gl!Olef, 1q;ll).

Contemporary FPA's research agenda, and conclusion. ---- .-

As Foreign PoliqAnalysls wal. b e ~ ' l g ljbcrate<:l numle inoonSÍSl:elloc.! jalhe lale 19M.'\, !he w\ltld Wa.I bt-

rug libm.led frorn Ú'l.e ches.s matdl of tht Cohl WiU.Ibis l'/3.l, a fdícuOUl coincidence ¡or FPA, and WllS

an added snurce of vigmu :íí;rr it! resemh agendll.

The lignilicmee of:hio¡ «mpon.! ooincidena (lnbe undentood by ftlT,embering whal t¡'pt$ nf IR

tbeory were in axendance al tht time nec-realills - y ~ l t m s $ÚtJ(t\lfe tbeory aoo ruliona] ~ h o i c e mode!!ing, ¡nded, tbe domirumce w;n so O Y e r w h e ~ n i n gtIlat tú ¡ah lñ ¡R d:l!!ury ro»fse during tW lime,

~ "'ouId ml.!lk thest> lwo w ~ r e (he !4!11Irn1!11 bíll'!lI"of all th.í.nking in lntemationa1 Rtltruons {al !m l

iIJ the UUlm1 Slales). Ibis $tl!t of affilir:f w'" nato

mal fOf A m e r i ~ a n t h i n k t ~ ; AnImO! was une of 1Wt)pole1 of powet in thf Colé War imen\lTional :>y!

tcm. A bipolar 'lll.1S¡4!!t!Num riYalry .knQ$ ibelfrdatiytly well lo abltrnr, Icwt-generall,llalym 00

cusoo primanlr on Ihe macro...:on:tt..'"<lÍlll'l. imposedby the l"l'$ltnl. Furthermore, act(l¡-general !hooryl'/3.l, more p r ~ c l i c a l f u r s d w J a n . d \ l r i n g theCold War,

b t ' U u ~ so littk W-.I:; known of tbe liiad; bol ofthe (I.ruéd Sorie!, Citinese, and E ~ S t e m Skx. fureignpoliq detiúoo-mwng bodies,

H ~ V l : r , when bip;:¡ur o:yrtern U ) n a p ~ wíthfue fall of the 50rirt bloc ! ~ r o t ~ , aJl importl\ll Ib<orericaldiscov(ry wasmade: it i, m p ~ J ! i b i e b ~ m

cr predict i}'¡tm! ¡lwng! iJfl the basis 01 !JS1tm.-!tWi

variablt<s deN, Alnng!he 5ame ¡ille:, in $o perlad ofgreat lill;at'-IIlt¡'and flux., l ~ c k ofempirically g r o ~ l 1 ded input;¡ lo ~ l i o l l a l choice tt¡llatiolll is dudly lnterms or the U ~ l i . J r H $ S uf 1U<h t.JMlysis. Ou-r intnit

¡ve\ l o d ~ r $ w n d i n g

of he collllp.k involvesv a ' ; l I b l e ~

more lo befoordin Foreign PolkyAnillyt.is:wnalitie!ofGóri)achev, HlIve!, WaIeu; fue a¡;(Ívities

o f t r n r . ! l a t i o l ! . ~ l gro\lpsroch as !he l.ut..;eran Churdland the Gleen MQvemenl; the s t m g g l t ~ belweenva:1011S donltStk politwal players, s\lch a<.. ti\\.' mll¡lary, the Corumunil: Part}", tlUre3UO"a"lll, et,.;

the rcl.e uf eoonnmics and $ocew ñads in ~ a r k -ia¡: d:;e Jesire fuI ch,ange, rn. With Ihe fail of the{ton Curta in, th noo;! rO! m 'aaor"specifi..::'coropbment to m a i M ~ l I m lR theorybt.::t.'"1lt. MilO; ID

m clarity,

Fomgn fu!icy Analysis in (he po.rt Cnld War e:ra

remns the distmttlve theoretlcat commilllll.'nt$ !ha:demarcated al iu írtCtprirut Induded litnong tbe¡¡e

ate:

• ¡ ;otlli--nít::r;Ql to Jook bdow the nanOtNl.i.le leve]

ot t ~ lO a ~ , o t - I P « i l i c lnfuImation:

• J cowmit.ment ID huM middle rililge tboory 33

L1.e interfllCe be-tweenartor- gencf<d theory lnd d1e

compkllty uf thIJ real \'I{)rlJ;

Chapm- '"1

• a rommitmmt to pursue multk.nuil x p l l l I l a ~ o mspatmÍllg multipk ItvNof lIJ".aIyV:li

• a commítmel1t ID n!ili:e tIleory ~ \ l c l fímlings ftoro

acrOllS (he s¡;:mrom of sOclal;;ciencf,

• a rommittnent ro viewmg tbt: rroce$S oi roreígnpcl.icy d<'ii3ion-makingas impil!t.al1t '" tbe outpu:

~ r r o f .Neve:tltdes:s, FPA ha:¡ eYolvw in sophisfation of

qutstlol"'.i !9:cd, and in mealls of alll1wmng lho¡.equesthmr. lndeed, FPA', abü¡ty 10 m ncw qlJ/$tínJU is ~ r h ~ p s more ¡ntfmising in r e l ~ t i o ( l tú 1"8

future theorccial pottnt:lIl than anyother indicator.E i n ~ t e i n aud Infcld (193$) (ornmenttd tilat. '(t)he

formulationoh problem 1S oItm roR"t w.ential !hanituo!utmn whicl¡may bemere:rl matler uf. .. skiltTo rail<-new questioru.,!le!" poMibilities, lo regardoid probk-m; frem a new tm:glc, Iequire:¡ mi'!!iveimaginatínnand woru ro:al adH!lCe ¡Il !cienc::

In oniltt ro :lee this a d ~ , 1ftU$<,um¡'ne )lomeorthe newqueWoru thllt ha'l't' ~ d J r o m the Qld. A

de1aikd oVErvleW ofFPA sdtaLar:'ihip from 1993 totheprc!I(ntc.3l1 be fuundin Hudson, 2005, 2007-000:this vciume reprtStn!$ !fu: s...1wlaub.ip of COnlem

ponry fPA. we will notprol'¡de th.l! ovtfVle!" here.la OU! rrurvej' of Li t oonttmporary FPA re)l:ucltques.tions, let U3 lt m at!he mote rrúcro--Ie>'eh ort.JMlysl,azld move !mw:!d;he r n o r ~ n w : : m - l e v e l ! .

When :>tuJying !he etTects of ¡e;¡clU$ rm fureiW1

polJq dec'.mn-making. can lile rnl.'i"ld Out understandk.g ofhow a !eJdrr'$ r*r5l.lrral¡ty affcru fuJeignpnlky through de'".trminin@ ¡ti elIec! nn d¡oict ofadv:i.500, pt"I1krence fur jUUI!-II, ptttru:nce fu! « (>

tain gr[mp ptOl:t5.le5, md $O oorth! ún ile mtegrate

difftten! J ¡ ¡ ~ l y r i t a l ~ h e m e : ; ror anaiy,tmg leadet r*r·r.<mality artd itl efltct.¡¡? '#ha¡.J..."t thetiImÍ!i(;1looru of

new breut..1.rollg!u in ru:!.lfl»CimO! for .FPA11 !nwdoI'uious kaoo perwnality types shapt' tIle ;!tructureililJ p ~ n f groupl ~ e r M g them'

now lo the ¡¡mUr kvci, how are problerm r e c ( l g l " I í z ~ d 1!.$ sud! by tJw group? How ate5ituatiolll 'trnnlNi' aM 'reprf$tTllro'1 How are cp-

tions developerP How does a group Cilmt 10 sharelIJ1 interpretadon of!he !ilmition1'How doe$ agroup

Tne hi.toI'i aM. e'iO!uhon o f ( ~ e

<htnge an e ~ t a b l h h e d inrerp!ctation? IlCIW ilim agntUl' leam? HQW ti me grilup'I p o t e n t ¡ ~ 1 1mcreativ¡ty enb<!.llcedordampemd! How doogt{lllp lmmoryi!.I!"«:t group actiool How do groups bet"(¡!lle p l ~ y e r !¡n tia: 'two ~ v e ¡ !lame'? How are group 5U'ucture ru::d

píomiS a nmction oísvcirbtru1tutt?Movinl\ :0 thtlevcl «socittymd polilialcompet

itiou, can ~ unroro the societ;¡l wur«s ofchililgein ~ h a r e d perceptioru! How jJo aI¡ituJtj¡ af e a d ~ r ~Mld. pubill:s change l1$ . : o ~ r t (hwgtst Can n!tloflillro!.e OO1tcúption be r e . . ( ; O ! ~ toserve liS the tite

oretical inttrfKebetw\.""eIll sociely t h e i n d i v i i l i ~membcrs Qf :ha(socittythat CO!1ll:Iv 1M ¡t aud make

furtign pol«:y de<..ls¡ornl Can ft j f r L l l e dfu:tDI! fureign po1icy oidomestlc pclitica1 compet¡OOuf

Can W! wmplelt fui thtoretical. ende, specifrthedfe>:t5on domen].¡;politic-I of tbe implementat[unof a certain forelgn pruiq o;h:>i.;cl How can wt dis.cero c,¡.lIurt's influ€ce on ffJl"cign policyl" DOe:l!.")'pe

of pcblical $f!Iwm impac on oorcign polícyl What::is

th/.' effecr uf systemk -ebaIlg'r00 fo!"!!Jgfl pilliq?

Methodologiullly speaki.ng, thm are quite a fewimporlantqueslwoo ro be a d d r ~ 1'lu:se il1clude,( iU l e'V«l1! data. Ix re-OOJlO!ptualiud tú be of uat te

;;anh!mpoury FPA1 Gro ¡'PA uliliz.e mrthod$ cre

ated lo >tmiJlate human deci.1ion-making '" J mtan.l

nf lIltegrating tompJn.. oonqnillltlnablt dati únWd th¡nk of OOIl-arithmetic \II1"fI ID re!alt 'I1IíÍables!

Ca:n rgtional choice n10Ckls be alttred lo 3J:CIJIll-

TIlIkIate ~ o o N p t ' d : f i c 1diooyncrades with regara ro

,hokt !llec.1uniws, and chuir;¡: mn.maiolsl

Can wt "'«ti modd.s tltal will allow m lo !l$t as.

inp:.us the a t ! U I ' · ~ p e c i f i c knQWledge gencnted by

t:ollnrry!reg.lOn t;tpert,? When ti L'Je dmil of acwt"·

~ p e c i l i a nmssary, ana whm i& ¡ctor"geru:m throrysuffidrnt to <Xplaín l,Ila projea FPDM? !inw coutdiil'\ll irut¡¡ntlate a moOO ofthe '00 leve] ga:mel! Can

clls:cuniYe analysts: or intt1pl:ftM.:11ll 1M: Lm:d ro int w t l ~ 1.Ie dynamiCli of emivmg nnrlentanding inFPDMl

These are m:iliog ntw ~ : 1 0 r u tú be ~ andaU$werí.ng. Doubtld$ &ome ofyou be ínVclvtd int.ib \IIWk. 1t lJ awondetful time ro m:ronlt e-ngaged

in FPA, 1 time or oew hori-ron!

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Chapter 1 The h i ~ W r y arlO Cl'1llution D t ~ poli(y .lt1;¡lysi, 29

H ~ , v, M, {COOJ), r¡)(eigr. ~ r . C ) ' All$'t'O:.:mc ooáCOritemp.:ll'!:lry TheJ<y {New YcrX: Rowmau andUttldield}.- _ -

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